Tumgik
#they do disagree with each other every nw and then
sexysilverstrider · 14 days
Text
Tumblr media
just a girl and her trouble-making pompous catboy
3 notes · View notes
Text
Tumblr is great actually I can't think of another website where i can get so worked up in an argument with a person that I don't actually disagree with I'm laughing my ass off
#i just saw that we fought i blocked them then went and unblocked them#and we had both made a vague about each other and im dying now#i do not disagree im just rambling in tags and tumblr shows it to more ppl than i thought#anyway my b im laughing really hard rn bc i was mad abt something else#also can i just mention that i hate that tumblr drags all words from tags now its fucking infuriating#ive been going on bullshit diary tag rants for a decade these cannot start getting me in trouble at this fucking point#this isnt reddit i should be able to say something without having everybody im gossiping about actually see it what are we doing here#what i meant abt byler is that i think the actual buildup and representation of it has been pretty one sided#so i think its qb if theres not a byler confession and i think it would be shitty if its unreciprocated#but idk if it would actually be like...queerbaiting#but again i wasnt talking abt byler at all i was talking abt steddie and ronance not being qb#anyway if u want a better blogging experience#search the hashtag instead of the word always bc ppl like me dont want to censor every damn word while rambling#bc tumblr decided to become less functional i guarantee you will have a better time bc those are all the byler posts#that people actually want you to see#tumblr take note do u see the kind of chaos this causes?#we had all those posts about not tagging hate for like 6 years for a reason#anyway my b but u did also come in a lil hot there but nw i was being a dick but also i didnt tag it so lets just blame tumblr
14 notes · View notes
melrosing · 2 years
Note
If you're interested.. someone in the asoiaf tag has read your jaime/jon reply I think.
Look I genuinely don’t have a problem w people disagreeing with me, as I say in my prev tags Jon Snow isn’t hugely my thing and I’m interested to hear what other people think, it's all good lol
Obviously I disagree with the OP’s take on Jaime in several passages of their post, but without getting into all that (because if I disputed every Jaime post I disagreed with…. I mean there are things I would rather do w my life lol) I think the primary thing we disagree on is what a ‘parallel’ is and what it’s for. It’s not the same as mirror theory (something which Tumblr massively co-opted a few years ago and has lost all meaning since where they’re just like - look similarities between A and B! And then draw a great big biased conclusion based on that). Sometimes a parallel exists to contrast or compare two characters. It’s not purely there to say ‘hey, these characters are the same! look at how similar they are!’ and then use one character to project onto another.
Nonetheless, the parallels between Jaime and Jon in AFFC/ADWD are not isolated (where compared to a different fandom example OP point out). OP actually selected one or two extra themselves lol, and since writing my answer to that initial ask a couple more have occurred to me, too. Ultimately there’s a series of them throughout Jon and Jaime’s respective POVs, and they are quite clearly intentional… but to what end I don’t know. There are a lot of reasons one might contrast and compare the NW and the KG, so GRRM has clearly thought it interesting to compare what leadership in those two positions looks like during a crisis period. He’s thrown in a number of comparisons between Jon and Jaime on this basis. I’d have to do a Jon re-read before I decided if there was a crystal clear conclusion to be drawn based on all that, but again, I don’t think there necessarily needs to be.
Anyway I don't think the parallels are something to shy away from: Jon and Jaime are and always will be different characters with very different stories. But. I think they riff off each other in their own way and I like it
10 notes · View notes
jackoshadows · 6 years
Text
Jon and Sansa had nothing in common as children in book one...
I constantly keep hearing from Sansa fans - on the Jon Snow Tag - about how Jon and Sansa had similar/parallel journeys and were pretty similarly bratty when they were children - pointing to Jonsa because they are so compatible you guys! -  and that only Sansa gets unfairly criticized as opposed to Jon. Let’s tackle this:
Was Jon emo and bratty in the first few chapters in AGoT? No doubt. But as Maester Luwin aptly put it, bastards grow up faster - they have to deal with the harsh realities of life - unlike the popular, privileged daughter of the Warden of the North. Jon does look down on the other recruits of the NW as soon as he gets there, but Donal Noye very swiftly puts an end to that by explaining the circumstances to Jon and Jon LEARNS. Jon then goes about teaching Grenn and Pip and the others, protects Sam, talks to Aemon about taking in Sam etc. That’s the character growth that Jon shows in book one.
Meanwhile, Sansa continues to be bratty and selfish for pretty much the whole of the first book despite Ned’s constant pleas and warnings for the girls to not fight, that they were in a dangerous place (KL), that they had to be united as a family, that the Lannisters were bad people who had killed loyal Stark men. Sansa ignores all this and learns too late - after Ned loses his head, she is trapped in KL and the Lannisters start abusing her.
Sansa also goes against her family twice - she lies about the Trident incident, not supporting her own sister against Joffrey. And she tattles to Cersei all of Ned’s plans that was useful for Cersei to trap the girls - Sansa, Jeyne, Arya - in KL as opposed to on a ship bound for WF. Jon on the other hand wanted to leave the NW to fight for Ned, Robb and the rest of his family when he heard what happens. He feels deeply that he cannot save the people he loves:
Forgive me, Father. Robb, Arya, Bran... forgive me, I cannot help you. He has the truth of it. This is my place. "I am... yours, my lord. Your man. I swear it. I will not run again. - Jon, AGOT
That’s why it’s all the more significant when Jon does end up breaking his NW oaths for Arya at the end of the last book ADwD. Jon ends up choosing love over duty finally - like honorable Ned did.
The parallels about Jon and Sansa both wanting to leave WF also makes no sense. I mean, if you want to strip away all context, then yes, they were the two characters who wanted to leave WF in the beginning. But does not context matter in these so called parallels?
When Jon had his little tantrum with Benjen about leaving WF, it had just been made very clear to him what his status was among the siblings. Catelyn had made him sit at the lower tables while his siblings sat with their esteemed guests. Jon was bitter and angry. As we saw, Catelyn makes it very clear to Ned that Jon had to leave WF if Ned left for KL. Which was why Ned agrees to Jon going to the wall despite 14 being too young to make such a decision. Jon basically did not have a home anymore - the home he grew up in is not his - Catelyn made sure of that. Jon wanted to leave WF to make something of his life in a place - NW - where even a bastard could climb the ladder based on merit.
Sansa? She had a home. She had a loving family. A mother who doted on her. She was considered beautiful and admired for her skills unlike Arya. She wanted to leave WF to marry Joffrey and become Queen of the 7K.
So there’s a reason for why Sansa gets more criticism than Jon in the first book. Jon is an underdog trying to make something of his life as an outcast in Westeros. Sansa selfishly betrays her family twice - despite already having what Jon desired (home and family) - so that she could marry Joffrey and become queen. For reasons like this:
“Go Ahead, call me all the names you want," Sansa said airily. "You won't dare when I'm married to Joffrey. You'll have to bow and call me Your Grace." - AGOT
As show Sansa tells LF at the end of season 6 - “I came here every day when I was a girl. I prayed to be somewhere else. Back then I only thought about what I wanted, never about what I had. I was a stupid girl.”
Of course, then show Sansa negated that development by once again acting like her mother, never fully supporting Jon and passive aggressively undermining him in season 7 - but that’s D&D’s terrible writing that does not allow characters to grow for plot reasons.
Sansa gets criticized because she was a character created to have conflict among the Starks as per GRRM - not because she’s a girl.
When the series was originally conceived, it was only three volumes long and I did not know that several of the main characters were going to be stuck with being children for so much of it. The hardest chapters for me to write are the ones about Bran, just because he is the character most involved in magic, the youngest child and he is so seriously crippled--I have to write in that sense of powerlessness and it has always to convince. Sansa was the least sympathetic of the Starks in the first book; she has become more sympathetic, partly because she comes to accept responsibility for her part in her father's death. Jon Snow is the truest character--I like his sense of realism and the way he copes with his bastardy.   - GRRM
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/feature.html?tag=westeros-21&ie=UTF8&docId=49161
Jon and Sansa do not have much in common at all. Both in the books and the show. That’s why their stories have nothing to do with each other in the books,  why they hardly ever think of each other and why their stories will most probably never intersect. I mean, Sansa spends an entire book impersonating a bastard in the Vale, and never once, not once thinks about the bastard brother she grew up with in WF! Is that not amazing?! In fact Sansa admits to forgetting about Jon till Myranda Royce brings up his name. That’s how unconnected Jon and Sansa are in the books.
On the show, we see them clash again and again. Sansa keeps important information about LF and the Vale from Jon and then berates him about fighting with less men. Jon, like Ned, tells Sansa that they have to trust each other and be united as a family. Sansa undermines Jon, disagrees with his policies, Jon never listens to Sansa and instead does what he thinks is right.
As in the books, Jon has the steady, unwavering support of Arya - who stands up for Jon and defends him when he is not there to defend himself. Remember this in the books?
Sansa looked at Arya. “What did you think of Prince Joff, sister? He’s very gallant, don’t you think?”
“Jon says he looks like a girl,” Arya said.
Sansa sighed as she stitched. “Poor Jon,” she said. “He gets jealous because he’s a bastard.”
“He’s our brother,” Arya said, much too loudly.
A variation of this is pretty much what we saw last season as Sansa complains about Jon and Arya defends him on the show:
Sansa: I warned Jon this would happen. That he couldn't leave the North and expect it to just sit and wait for him like Ghost.
Arya: He didn't. He trusted you to hold it for him
Their clash over Jon escalates so much that Sansa considers having Arya executed to depose Jon and Arya lets her know that she is keeping an eye on her.
LF: He was named King in the North. He can be unnamed.
Sansa: Even if I wanted to, Arya would never go along. She always loved Jon far more than she ever loved me, and she'd kill anyone who betrayed her family.
Jon and Sansa have a non-existent relationship in the books and an almost antagonistic relationship on the show. That’s why Jonsa is just an absolutely baffling syndrome. I don’t know of any actual Jon Snow fans shipping Jonsa.  Jon-Dany, Jon-Arya, Jon-Sam, hell even Jon - Satin and Jon - Val are more believable positive relationships than Jonsa. I constantly hear from the Sansa fans about how much Jon loves Sansa. Like where? You guys want to see what actual love is? You will see it next season when Jon finally reunites with Arya.
59 notes · View notes
ladyandtheghost · 6 years
Text
About the Political!Jon theory...
There has been some recent discussion amongst Jonsas --- mostly in relation to triggered antis and Jon*erys stans going nuts again --- about what exactly the Political!Jon theory entails, what does it actually refer to or “theorize”...
And as with every theory, it’s very difficult to pin point because every “theorist” has their own ideas and may agree or disagree with different aspects of a theory as a whole. However, as far as I could gauge it from perusing the different takes on Political!Jon within the Jonsa fandom, there appears to be at least some consensus about what Political!Jon could possibly mean (and please feel free to correct me):  
- Jon is first and foremost loyal to the Starks, the Northern Houses, the Wildlings and everyone who fought on his side in the BotB 
- Jon’s actions in S7 are all first and foremost based on this^^ and his need to protect his people and all of Westeros
- Jon’s priorities are: defeat the NK and WW, protect his family and people and basically keep all living creatures alive
- Jon has understood that the only chance he has of defeating the NK is to use Dani’s dragons, nothing else will suffice - not even Cersei’s forces which is why he does not care if he pisses off the Lannisters in the dragon pit. It’s not Cersei’s fickle promises he needs, it’s Dani’s dragons
- Jon has also understood that the only way to get Dani to forget about Cersei and the IT and focus entirely on the NK and the plight of the Northerners is to ingratiate himself with her, show admiration and understanding for her situation, apply to her “good heart” and “please” (or “pleasure”) her in every possible way
- Jon acts like a cinnamon roll too good for this world, too pure, even though we know he is very much capable of lies and deception (anyone remember Wildling!Jon?) “I’m not going to swear an oath, I can’t uphold.” reeks of irony when you consider Jon’s entire NW storyline.  
- Jon may very well be physically attracted to Dani (99% of male characters who meet her are infatuated with her, not to mention the gros of male viewers) but it’s difficult to believe he could be attracted or in love with the character traits she exhibits in S7 (e.g. temper tantrums, arrogance, megalomania, sense of entitlement, hypocrisy etc.) for which reason it is doubtful whether Jon is actually so in love with her that he cares more about her than his people and his family. 
- Jon is the one of the central character, if not THE central character of a show that is called “Game of Thrones” and he of all characters is supposed to be too honourable and (frankly) stupid to “play” the political “Game”? Is it not more likely that we, the viewers, are supposed to think he is too “good” and honourable to deceive anyone, ergo the only one NOT playing the Game --- and in the end it turns out that it was Political!Jon we were watching all along!
- Jon never actively planned to “play” anyone or to use lies and deception in his quest, but being as desperate as he is about the NK, he must have adapted to the situation and thus he went with the “flow” and this entire situation developed right up to the knock at Dani’s door on the boat...
Now, some people also believe that Jon and Sansa are in cahoots and that the whole thing had been planned from the very beginning. While I personally do not believe this, I can see how others might “see” it and of course their theories are just as valid and who knows, they might be right...
Personally, I think Sansa had her own “game” to play back in Winterfell together with Arya and Bran. Their “game” was to bring down Littlefinger - and I do think that Littlefinger bringing up a possible Jon/Dani marriage actually hit Sansa as a bit of a shocker, unless that was also part of her act...
Since I also think that Jon never actively planned for things to go down this way, I think Sansa has no clear idea what he is actually doing, but this only makes it even more poignant how much they TRUST each other: 
Jon TRUSTED Sansa to take care of his kingdom for him and SHE DID, preparing the North for the great war and getting rid of the enemy in their midst together with Bran and Arya. 
Sansa TRUSTED Jon to come home with “weapons” that would save their lives and the North and HE DID that. 
Because THAT was and still is Jon’s first priority: The North, his people and his family. And he would do ANYTHING for them, even lie and deceive and manipulate a stranger...
Political!Jon as a concept must of course sting in the eyes of people who only see the story primarily from the perspective of Dani and with Jon*erys shipping goggles, wanting to see Jon being truly in love with her and loyal to her above all else --- and that is entirely understandle (though I will never understand why they keep stalking this tag and reading stuff about it then? Isn’t it better to avoid something that is unpleasant to you rather than seeking out content that gets you all riled up?) 
Be that as it may, of course this is ONLY a THEORY and it may turn out to be wrong. Who knows? All I know at this point is that there are some strong points supporting this^^ concept and until proven wrong, Political!Jon to me is like Schrödinger’s cat --- simultaneously dead and alive --- and we shall find out which it is in Season 8. 
96 notes · View notes
Text
Joe’s Weather Blog: The overuse of severe thunderstorm warnings (SUN-8/26)
Good afternoon and for those of you who are reading this from the National Weather Association annual meeting…welcome to the weather blog. This will recap and add some additional information to what has been my passion project over the past several years. For my usual weather blog readers…you sort of may remember this project of mine. I’ve revisited it a couple of times since around 2015 or so…and each time I try to add other perspectives and/or respond to your thoughts and concerns in the comments section of the blog or via FB. Once again I’ll be doing that this year.
A little history first. For those of us within the Intergrated Warning Team (IWT for short)…in an effort to build better communications, for example meeting with and discussing various ways of improving what I/we do in the TV world with others who are not in TV…for example, emergency managers and various NWS and NOAA employees…we get together once or twice per year and have discussions. We listen to each other and IF there is a way to better things we attempt to do that. The Kansas City IWT was the 1st one in the country I think…and we roughly get about 100 folks come out for a day long session.
A number of years ago…I brought up the lack of color consistency with the little TV bugs that stations use in the KC TV market. Myself and a few others wondered out loud IF something can be coordinated. Magically, after numerous emails between TV stations…it happened and the results are still apparent. So changes can happen.
A few years ago I brought up the fact that, in my opinion, and I feel my viewers opinion as well…the usage of severe thunderstorm warnings had gotten to the point that it was essentially “noise” to not only myself but my customers as well. In essence, I felt that very few were paying attention to them anymore. Surprisingly there was more agreement to my statement than I thought there would be…which lead me down a road that I’ve paved for myself…and turned it into my passion project.
Passion projects are good things and bad. On the one hand…I think I’ve brought up something that many of us within the IWT think about on occasion. It’s lead me to do so much number crunching…staring at monitors and seeking other opinions that it’s been rewarding to what I do on a daily basis. On the negative side is that fact that, deep down, what I’m trying to do is change the government ways…good luck with that!
So far I’m a single blade of grass in my grassroots campaign. I’ve had so many within the IWT world say I’m absolutely right in the path I’m taking so I use that as motivation.
My colleagues in the TV world, that I’ve talked to can see my point as well. Today I’m talking to about 100 or so TV broadcasters from around the country and sharing with them my thoughts on this. Others will be in attendance as well…either they agree or disagree but all this is bound to at least generate discussion. Perhaps they will go back to their home markets and visit with their respective NWS office, who issue the warnings, and ask them about it…and generate further discussions…and maybe 10 years from now…things may change.
I’ll be about to retire by then.
So here goes…
Some previous blogs/podcasts…I think this was the 1st one in 2016
2016 edition
2017 update
Are severe thunderstorm warnings overused via Weather Hype podcast
Are severe thunderstorm warnings overused…Carolina Weather Group podcast
Jan 2018 update
So that’s a lot already…the presentation that I did this afternoon in front of my colleagues is similar.
Let’s start with the basics…
IN NO WAY IS THIS A CRITICISM OF THE JOB MY COLLEAGUES AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DO DURING TIMES OF SEVERE WEATHER.
OK that’s out of the way. They are required, by mandate, to issue a severe thunderstorm warning when a storm has the potential or is indeed producing 58 MPH winds and/or 1″ sized (quarter-size) hail. This is the mandate and this is their responsibility.
My efforts are to change that criteria…and strengthen it…in other words I want to increase the thresholds to something that is more likely to “be something” and not be anything of significance. It’s the hundreds of warnings issued each year…that I feel my customers have essentially become numb too. If they blow them off…then the warnings are really not serving a lot of purpose.
So I did research…and I looked at a period of time from roughly 2009-a couple of weeks ago and counted each and every warning issued from the various NWS offices across the country. I focused my research on what the NWS office in Pleasant Hill and Topeka did each year.
I then drilled down to the years 2012-2016 and hyperfocused on the warnings issued and how many were issued for what I consider marginal situations.
So let’s start this out with a look at just how many severe thunderstorm warnings are issued each year. We’ll start nationwide…and go back to 2015. All the yellow coloring below represents at least parts of/or whole counties under a warning(s) in a year.
Now 2016…
Now 2017
and finally where we are through mid August of 2018
You know what is fascinating about the slides above…that from 2015-2017…five or take a couple of hundred warnings…each year was around 18,500 warnings.
You can easily see how the warnings are issued with the fewest west of the Rockies (mostly) and the most from east of the Rockies.
I then wanted to break down the data…and focus on individual NWS offices with, again a hyperfocus on the two offices that cover the FOX 4 viewing area the most. This data goes back to April of 1009. The reason why I started there is that, at least for the offices in MO/KS…we changed our minimum hail criteria for a SVR (severe thunderstorm warning) to 1″ from 3/4″. This was done…why? To try and reduce the issuance of warnings for storms that did little to no damage based on the 3/4″ hail criteria.
I then looked at other offices in the nation starting in 2010. I believe that’s when they too changed their criteria to 1″ hail as a trigger for a SVR
.
Take a look at the total warnings (severe thunderstorm) issued by all the NWS offices in the country. This data is for 2015>2018 broken down per year.
My goodness…so many warnings. Look at Norman, OK. Now that office covers central and western OK…a lot of land in a part of the country where storms are common…but more than 5500 warnings is NOT doing anybody any favors…what is that some 600/year? While not as bad…Jackson, MS with a smaller geographic reach than Norman’s responsibility has issued almost 4500…some 500/year. When viewers, and granted it’s not the same viewers time after time, are bombarded with sooooo many warnings…why won’t they blow them off after awhile…why won’t they say to themselves…well odds are this storm is going to do this…
Which is not much. Tiny hail…scary looking clouds…a few tree limbs broken…and that’s IF it even does that. Oh and that’s IF it occurs in a place where somebody is actually affected by that “damage”. As my colleagues at the NWS tell me…one of the tough things about the warning process can be verifying IF the storm is actually “severe”…especially at night…especially in rural areas. THEY WANT TO BE RIGHT…I WANT THEM TO BE RIGHT…
So this lead my to my 1st blog in March of 2016…asking my usual blog readers…who are more weather savvy than perhaps my typical TV weather viewer (they’re reading my blog…they care about the weather)…their thoughts on where we were. I asked them a couple of questions…
I was delighted that they pay attention to the warning process when it comes to SVRs…GOOD
I was interested in their response to the work I was undertaking…and they voted that YES they would pay more attention IF the warning had more “meat” to it.
So let’s drill down…from the period of 2012-2016…here are all the SVR warnings issued from Pleasant Hill. Look at 2012…low number right…remember what happened in 2012…the drought.
So over 1000 warnings in that 5 year period.
I wanted to specifically look at the warnings issued for the minimum criteria…58/60 MPH winds…and or 1″ hail. That is the root of what I’m trying to change.
Let’s start with wind only…and for the sake of rounding values they way they issue the warnings 58/60 MPH are interchangeable really. This next slide is for SVRs issued based on min criteria winds ONLY and the percentage breakdown with the overall number in that year.
Let’s say, on average about 25%…so about 1 in 4 warnings were issued based on min criteria winds ONLY.
Now SVRs issued based on min criteria hail (1″/quarter size) ONLY
Let’s say about 1 in 10…not too many really.
Now the jackpot…warnings based on min criteria wind AND/OR min criteria hail. Often when a warning comes out…there will be two reasons why…60 MPH winds and 1″ hail potential. I’ve merged all these together and come up with the following slide which includes the ones above and the 60 MPH/1″ tag on the warning
Now we’re up to about 7 out of every 10 warnings…and hence the “noise” factor in my opinion. I then did a quick perusal of the SVRs issued in the last 1 1/2+…and the data for min criteria issuance really hasn’t changed that much from the Pleasant Hill office.
Farther west…towards the NWS Topeka office…it was about the same…although overall numbers were a bit different. For the sake of brevity (I’m at about 1600 words so far in this missive)…
Total warnings from 2012-2016
Warnings based on a combination of the min criteria…
Close to 60% based on some sort of combo criteria…
The recent trends (actually better)
The thing is…when I looked to see IF the storms were even verifying…in other words were there reports from the public…law enforcement…emergency managers…anyone…that the storms were actually doing what they were indicating on radar…it was at best so-so.
2014 in particular was a bad verification year…so many warnings…so many min criteria warnings…so few verifiable warnings…there has to be a better way.
AGAIN…NOT a criticism of the job at hand. Verifying warnings IS NOT EASY for the reasons mentioned earlier and this doesn’t necessarily mean that 60 MPH winds and/or 1″ hail didn’t happen somewhere. 
I then looked at storms that SVRs were issued and thought to myself…well what about when a SVR is issued and then the storm strengthens…perhaps to 70 MPH and/or 1.5″ hail…in my little weather world…this could be the new warning criteria. So how many storms like that occurred…where a SVR would’ve been issued anyway.
A handful at best…
So let’s take a little journey into Joe’s Weather World…where snowstorms are perfectly predicted from days away…where rain amounts are always forecast correctly…and when it rains and/or snows at the exact time I say it’s going to occur.
OK it’s fantasy…but what am I trying to change?
How about a storm that has the ability to do this…
Something more meaty…how about 70 MPH winds and/or 1.5″ hail. In conversations with others…including insurance folks…this seems like a good starting point. I’ve had conversations with agricultural folks as well about this whole thing. They can actually buy special crop insurance IF they know a storm is coming a few hours out. SVRs though are not necessarily meant to do that…actually way back in the day they were mainly meant for aviation concerns…
What would happen to the number of warnings in the course of the year…
Well HELLO THERE!
Notice how, instead of hundreds per year…we’re down to 25-50 or so.
I have to believe (it’s my motivating point for all this) that the fewer the warning…the fewer times we say severe thunderstorm warning in effect for _____…the fewer times we light up the screen with warning information…the better the end result can be. It’s a fatigue factor really.
Back to a poll question…this time asked at our KC-IWT meeting before and after a presentation like this.
Look at #1…the KC-IWT felt that almost 70% of their customers DID NOT PAY ATTENTION to SVRs in their current state (that’s NOT good).
#2…almost 92% (after my talk) felt change was needed…92%. Let that sink in. I’m good but I’m not that good
So what do we do?
I don’t like A…I like B…and I feel C might be the middle road. Many of my colleagues at NOAA and the NWS that I’ve talked to actually feel we should change the min criteria…which I’d love to do.
My concern is that there are things that I’m NOT thinking of…effects that I don’t know IF we were to change. I wonder IF C would make the most sense and be the easiest/quickest to work towards. It can’t be that hard to create a new header for a new product. It would be OK for me to have the ability of showing a part of a county on live TV that has a different color code to indicate that THIS part of THIS county has a higher likelihood of seeing something more significant!
I know this is going to shock you…but I’m getting to the end…
There are questions and concerns…
For those who don’t know…HAZsimp is an effort to cut back on the types of warnings/advisories issued. I think though sometimes addition can be a good thing if needed.
There are no doubt parts of the country that would want NO part in this. There was division when the transition was made from 3/4″>1″ hail criteria…it was messy. In the end though…the earth kept spinning around…and it was OK.
So maybe look deeper at these ideas for areas of the country that are in warning fatigue.
The Storm Prediction Center thing is a question that I don’t have an easy answer for. They base their severe thunderstorm watches on 60 MPH/1″ criteria storm chances…do they alter the way they issue watches based on the part of the country that they are being issued for? That’s a toughie and I need more talks with them for solutions on that one. With that said though THERE ARE DIFFERENT CRITERIA FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES already. A winter storm warning in Atlanta, GA differs in criteria from a winter storm warning in KC.
I keep coming back to this though…when it comes to damaging storms…
Back to my blog readers…
After presenting some of this information I asked them a couple of questions…
The answer to #2 was fascinating to me…84%.
Dr Labosier reached out to me a few months ago after hearing my thoughts on all this…he is in the process of trying to fund a bigger research project with more specific questions that would be released to the general public…we’ll see IF that goes anywhere.
So that’s it…2500 words of my passion project.
I hope you enjoyed my presentation today…and I hope you tell me what you think of the situation. IF you think I’m crazy…that’s OK! I want to hear what I’m NOT thinking about…or where I’m wrong…or hopefully where I’m right!
Joe
from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports https://fox4kc.com/2018/08/26/joes-weather-blog-the-overuse-of-severe-thunderstorm-warnings-sun-8-26/
from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2018/08/26/joes-weather-blog-the-overuse-of-severe-thunderstorm-warnings-sun-8-26/
0 notes