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themoneybuff-blog · 6 years ago

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The Apple Credit Card Is Hyping Features You Probably Have Already

Apple is once again preparing to bring a shiny new product to market, and theres plenty of buzz about it, as is typically the case with each new offering from the trendsetting tech company. In this case, however, the new product is a credit card that Apple calls groundbreaking. The Apple website claims as much, stating: Apple Card completely rethinks everything about the credit card. It represents all the things Apple stands for. Like simplicity, transparency, and privacy. It builds on the incredible ease and security that millions of people love about Apple Pay. And its the first card that actually encourages you to pay less interest. Those are very bold assertions in an already crowded credit card landscape. And as it turns out, some of those claims just may be overstated. Being launched in partnership with Goldman Sachs, the Apple Card includes a variety of noteworthy features such as immediate, daily cash back and no annual fee, cash-advance fee, over-the-limit fee, or late fees. Apple Card users will also have the ability track and sort spending into helpful color-coded categories on their devices. Perhaps the most buzzed about features, however, are the cards security offerings, which Apple heralds as a new level of privacy. Among the big takeaways here is that the card itself will not have a physical number anywhere on it, or a CVV code for that matter. But are all of these features truly new and groundbreaking? For many experts, the answer to that question is a resounding no. For the most part, what Apple is offering is not all that unique. Most of these features are out there already, said Ted Rossman, an industry analyst for CreditCards.com. Theyre doing some innovative things with security, but the rewards, fees, and interest rates, these things are already out there and in many cases the offers elsewhere are better. Heres a closer look the Apple Cards major claims and how they stack up against the competition. Security Features Lets tackle the Apple Cards various security features first, because theyre generating much hype. As noted, the Apple Card will not have a physical number on it, nor will it have a CVV code or expiration date. All of which is very cool. And it is indeed new to the industry, said Rossman, who explained that the lack of a physical number on the card is a step forward in security from credit cards with EMV chips, which have become ubiquitous. This is going to improve online security. If a crook steals your Apple Card, just having the card wont be enough to make a purchase, he explained. Chip cards havent helped us at all with online fraud. And with Apple taking the card number off the card, and the CVV and the expiration date, it means someone who finds or steals the card wont be able to buy anything online. To this, the Apple Card adds yet another layer of security as well, the dynamic CVV code, explained Rossman. In other words, the cards CVV, automatically generated in the credit card app on your iPhone, will be ever changing. As groundbreaking as that is, its less a giant leap than a logical step forward from virtual credit card numbers, which have been around for quite some time, and which the Apple Card will offer as well. Using a one-time virtual credit card number can be helpful on those occasions when you dont necessarily trust an online merchant, or if youre signing up for a free trial or subscription and dont want your card charged the next month if you forget to cancel. This has been in use for a while, continued Rossman. A consumer can sign up for a virtual card number with a bunch of issuers, including Capital One and Bank of America. You just go to their website or call them and say I want a virtual card number. And it could be for just a one-time use or you can use it for a year if you want. In the case of the Apple Card, these virtual numbers can be generated on demand, without having to log in to your card issuers website. The idea behind such numbers is that if the information is accessed by a criminal, the individual wouldnt have your actual credit card number, thus limiting any harm that can be done. Interest Rates The interest rates Apple is advertising for its forthcoming card range from 13.24% to 24.24%, based on the applicants creditworthiness. Apple describes them as being among the lowest in the industry. Rossman says theyre not all that different than whats already being offered by other cards. The 13.24% is a little lower than what we see at CreditCards.com as the average low end of the range. Typically, its just a shade under 18% and typically the high end is 25%, he said. The fact that Apple is advertising rates from 13.24% to 24.24% also suggests the card will be marketed to a broad audience and that consumers with a subprime credit score will likely be approved, added Rossman. None of that is all that different, Rossman added. Cash-Back Tiers The Apple Card provides 3% back on everything purchased from Apple, whether that transaction occurs in a store or online. It also features 2% cash back every time you buy something using Apple Pay, no matter what the purchase is, and there will be no limits. Finally, the card includes a 1% cash back offer for purchases at stores or on websites that dont yet accept Apple Pay. If these numbers dont exactly sound earth shattering, its because theyre not. The US Bank Altitude Reserve Visa Infinite Card offers 3% cash back on mobile wallet purchases and if you redeem for travel theres a 50% bonus, explained Rossman. Apple only offers 2% back on Apple Pay purchases, so the Altitude Reserve Visa is beating Apple at their own mobile wallet game. The Citi Double Cash Card is another example of a no-annual-fee card already offering 2% cash back on purchases, said Rossman. And these are just the first few examples that come to mind. Instant Cash Back The Apple Cards instant cash-back offer, on the other hand, may legitimately be unique, experts say. When users buy something with their Apple Card, a percentage of the purchase will go back into Apple Cash Card in the Wallet app. This happens immediately, not at the end of the billing cycle 30 days later. The money goes right onto the Apple card, so it can be used just like cash or it can be applied to your Apple Card bill or sent straight to your bank account. This is truly groundbreaking, said Cyndie Martini, president and CEO of Member Access Processing, an aggregator of card services for credit unions. I expect to see other cards offer this in the near future, but only if it means cardholders start to use their card more often to get Daily Cash, Martini added. This is the one Apple benefit that could potentially shift the market. Rewards are ubiquitous in the industry. However, current industry standard is that rewards are given to users on a monthly basis, or nearly so. Apple has narrowed that window to an almost immediate delivery of rewards. Though the instant cash back feature itself is noteworthy, its not likely to add up to very much, says Jim Miller, vice president of banking and credit card practice at J.D. Power. Most cardholders dont spend enough that getting access to their reward dollars every day makes a difference, Miller explained. If an Apple Card customer spends $1,000, thats about $33 dollars a day. If all of their spending is through Apple Pay, theyll earn 2% in daily cash, which will be 67 cents per day, or $20 for the entire month. Most customers wont care if they have to wait a month to get $20 compared to getting 67 cents every day. No Fees No fees, not even hidden ones, is definitely a tantalizing offer. And in Apples case, that includes no annual fee, no cash-advance fees, and no over-the-limit fees or late fees. Among the existing cards that make similar offers is the Promise Visa from PenFed Credit Union. They talk about no fees the same way the Apple Card does, said Rossman. That card, however, has a penalty rate where if someone pays 60 or more days late, the credit cards interest rate will increase to 29.99%. But there are no other fees, so theyre talking the same kind of language as Apple. The Petal Card is yet another example of a credit product that has no fees, said Rossman. Theyre an interesting company, they do cash flow underwriting, said Rossman of the Petal Card. They take a detailed look at your finances. A lot of the people theyre marketing to dont have a credit score. They have a lot in common with the Apple Card. The interest rates are similar and the language is eerily similar to what the Apple Card is saying, with no annual fees and no late fees. Encouraging Users to Pay Less Interest In big, bold letters, Apple proclaims on its website that its upcoming card will be The first credit card that actually encourages you to pay less interest. That, however, is not exactly true, according to experts. The website explains the offering this way: The best way to save on interest is to pay your balance in full every month. When you cant do that, Apple Card does the math for you. Choose any amount you wish to pay $530, $780, $1025 and watch Apple Card estimate the interest cost for you. In real time. So you can make an informed decision. Heres the thing, though: Do you ever look at your credit card statement? Have you noticed many of them have a table explaining how much interest youll be facing if you choose to only make the minimum payment? And the same table often explains how much less interest youll accrue if you opt to make a higher payment. Maybe all credit cards dont spell it out exactly as Apple is proposing, says Uri Abramson,co-founder of OverdraftApps. But suggesting that paying a bit more will help you pay less interest is like pointing out that milk is white, he says. Credit card statements offer direct information about how to avoid paying interest and contain a minimum payment warning. So, this is a bogus claim. The Big Takeaway Apple has always been good at generating buzz around its game-changing products. The company is legendary for creating shiny new must-haves that become status symbols among the cool kids. In a number of cases, Apple products have lived up to all of the hype. But not always. With their new card, theyre doing what Apple has always done. Theyve taken the best parts of what a lot of people do already and consolidated it into one shiny package, says Chris Ligan, vice president of acquisitions for Auric, a credit card processing company. Miller, of J.D. Power, offers a similar overall assessment of Apples latest product. Apples strength is taking something that already exists and improving the design and making it easier to use. Theyve done this with the Mac, the iPod, and the iPhone. All were existing products which Apple made much better, said Miller. While the Apple Card has very few unique features, theyre putting together a lot of the best credit card features into a single package. Read more: https://www.thesimpledollar.com/apple-credit-card-is-hyping-features-you-have-already/

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click2watch · 6 years ago

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When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

Two members of the Rothschild family are credited, perhaps incorrectly, with the (in)famous quote regarding investing: “When there is blood in the street” (James in the mid-19th century and Nathan, after the battle of Waterloo).

The family has been one of the richest in the world for over 200 years, so there’s something to be said for following the advice of its members… In the crypto space, therefore, the question becomes, Is there enough blood in the streets now that it’s the time to buy? I would argue no. Or, more precisely, not quite yet.

The basis for this conclusion is the past behavior of bitcoin (which, for the purposes of this article, I will use as a proxy for the entire crypto market – fully aware of the fact that it’s not perfect in that role, but only reasonably good).

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

That’s because there is a very interesting aspect to historical BTC performance: There are no peak-to-valley drops between 57 percent and 82 percent over its trading history. Thus, it becomes quite easy to narrow the data down (since a drop of 50 percent is fundamentally and qualitatively different from a drop of more than 80 percent).

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Of course, the last one is not yet over. Note that the current bear market has, to date, barely exceeded the third largest. To reach second place, BTC would have to drop to $2,553. To take first place, BTC would have to fall back to $1,239.

If we analyze the drops more closely, some interesting facts emerge. For instance, the average number of days between peak and valley is 233, or about 8 months. (The average would be 10 months without the unusual 2013 drop, which saw a peak-to-valley duration of two days.) This reinforces the conclusion that another bottom is probably close in terms of timing.

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

So, with quite a range, the average time for the price to double from the bottom is four months. The average time to reach the prior peak is one year and four months, or one year from the bottom doubling. Once that peak is reached, however, the time for the peak to double is a remarkable two months – and the range of the data is quite small: from one to three months. Conclusion: once enough momentum to reach the prior peak has been achieved, it consistently keeps going very strongly.

As we can see, the range of dates to reach and double the peak is far less than the range to double the bottom. Again, the sample is small, but the trend is clear. However, it’s also clear that the time required for all three metrics is increasing over time; thus, it may well take longer to hit each level this time around.

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

BTC virtually always reaches a peak and puts in a bottom with a spike. In other words, there is not a nice round hill at the top and a gently sloping down-and-up valley at the bottom. Bitcoin’s tops and bottoms are more violent. And that “violence” can be measured.

For the first peak from the first table above, we have some statistical data, but no good graph as 2011 graphs are not generally available. However, regardless of the data source, the wick is enormous, up to 40 percent from the immediately surrounding prices.

For the November 2011 valley, the graph is quite interesting. The drop, while it does not look dramatic because of the tremendous jump (about 500 percent) shortly thereafter, was actually nearly 10 percent with an almost immediate recovery. The total drop was also the largest drop in bitcoin history in percentage terms at 93.6 percent.

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

Stunningly, the next valley was put in two days later. (For those of you who, as I, lived through this, you will remember that this sudden spike and drop were directly related to the Cyprus debt crisis.)

(Please note that I am not addressing in any detail the various exogenous events which may have driven the crypto peaks and/or valleys. In addition to Cyprus in 2013, you had PBOC/MtGox in late 2013 and early 2014, the futures market-fueled rise in late 2017, ICO and general crypto regulation in 2018, etc. Good fuel for another article, but too much to address here.)

Again, depending on what one chooses as a baseline, the drop here was about 20 perecent. (It should also be noted that this drop may be viewed as a double or even triple bottom, but as it was put in over a very short period of time, the analysis still holds.) This is now the fourth largest drop in BTC history, having just been displaced by the current one.

The next peak was later that same year, in November. This peak is a bit of an anomaly for two reasons: first, the spike was only about an 8 percent increase and, second, there was a clear double top – although, again, over a very short period of time.

The next valley was just over one year later, in January 2015. This time the drop was about 15 percent and was very clear. The total peak-to-valley drop, at 86.9 percent, remains the second-largest in bitcoin history.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Of course, a “violent bottom” is simply another way of saying “capitulation.” That concept has become so well known that many people, including authors of articles similar to this, are asking “have we seen capitulation yet?” (My favorite recent quote in this regard is “point of apparent capitulation” – which appeared about $1,000 ago.)

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

So ,where will the bottom be? In my opinion, there is a relatively small chance of putting in a bottom around $2,800. However, I suspect that the odds are higher that the BTC price will test $2,000 within a month or two. Even if I’m correct, however, that would only move this drop to second place of all time.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

I remember almost six years ago when I first heard of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. I wasn’t convinced they would survive. After a year or so, survival wasn’t an issue, but scale and importance were. Now, it seems clear to me that crypto trading tokens (so I’m deliberately excluding blockchain applications which do not rely on “cryptocurrencies” that trade) and bitcoin are here to stay and that they will eventually play a non-trivial role in the financial system.

Without going into a long explanation, there is simply too much infrastructure that has been and is being developed, too many people with too much “skin in the game,” and too many advantages for the trading token ecosystem to utterly collapse.

The conclusion: a new bottom is nigh upon us, but not quite here yet. Or said another way, there is not yet enough blood running in the crypto streets to simply start buy bitcoin and other tokens which trade.

From an investment standpoint, however, while it’s not the time to buy, it is the time to invest. It’s obviously impossible to time the bottom exactly, so one must be positioned to invest now to maximize the benefit of the reversal. How to do that? Select a long-short investment vehicle (which the Rothschilds did not have) and invest now. I’m quite certain you won’t have to wait long for the next bull run to begin and, in the meantime, such a vehicle can make money on the balance of the drop.

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

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gymviralscom · 8 years ago

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Women Hit the Gym Before Trump Gets In

Since the election of Donald Trump, martial-arts and defense-training classes are reporting unprecedented spikes in business from women, minorities, and LGBT clients. “>

If the election of Donald Trump has inspired you to take a self-defense class, youre far from alone. In fact people who are thinking exactly like you are already stretching the limits of New York Citys self-defense instruction facilities. In Americas cultural capital, fighting is the new crying.

Gabrielle Rubin has been practicing martial arts for 29 years. For the last nine, shes run a womens self-defense school in Manhattan called Female Awareness Self Defense. My class for this Monday was packed, she says. I usually have packed classes, but between Wednesday and Sunday is the most packed Ive seen in nine years.

Its unbelievable, she adds. Ive never seen anything like this.

After the long, quiet subway ride home from the place people expected to be when they witnessed Hillary Clinton win the presidency Nov. 8, after the days of tears and sleepless nights of speculation over just how difficult a Trump administration could make life for people who arent white and straight and men, a curious trend has emerged among some dejected liberal voters. They have decided to fight. Literally.

In New York and beyond, people concerned that in Donald Trumps America the government and law enforcement wont stand with marginalized groups are flocking to facilities that teach self-defense and fighting techniques. In many cases, demand for training for hand-to-hand combat vastly outpaces facilities ability to provide it.

New Yorker Lena Afridi, moved by Election Night, attempted to put together a self-defense workshop for people who thought learning self-defense might be a good idea, in light of recent events. The workshop she organized was met with so much demand, she says, that they had to change the workshop into a series. More than a thousand people RSVPd.

At the Center for Anti-Violence Education in Brooklyns Park Slope, Executive Director Tracy Hobson says what shes seen in the last week is the biggest spike in interest in classes since her martial arts-meets-advocacy organizations founding 42 years ago. We saw another uptick in interest after 9/11 We do think its more now than then. The size, the number of calls that were getting.

Hobson says her organization has fielded requests from upstate New York, from North Carolina, from Pennsylvania. In one case, a Muslim-American group requested self-defense training for 7,000 people. Hobson says 300 people RSVPd to a multiweek self-defense and violence de-escalation workshop the organizational periodically offers. Their facility can accommodate 25 at a time.

For the next one, Hobson says, were getting a bigger space.

Patrick Lockton, the director of the Krav Maga Institute in New York, is a bit mystified by the sudden rush at facilities in the city. Traditionally, just before Thanksgiving, its a quiet time of year, he says. Its been the busiest November, especially in the last week. Its been unbelievably busy.

KMI, with branches spread over New York plus an affiliate school in London, is the largest self-defense school in the U.S. He tells The Daily Beast that two days after the election, the number of attendees at an introductory session to learn Krav Maga, a fighting technique originally developed by the Israeli Defense Force, was double what one would normally expect around this time of year. One week later, the introductory session had swelled to triple its normal size. And the demographics of those introductory classes had changed, too. Normally, about 55-60 percent of entering students are men. Since the election, the gender balance has flipped. Lockton cant declare conclusively that current events caused the surge, but he cant think of anything else that might have done it.

Fighting techniques that rely more on aggression and less on defense are seeing an increase in interest as well. Usually each week I get about five or 10 inquiries, says Ren Dreifuss, head coach and head instructor at Radical MMA in New York. And just yesterday, I got 15.

Its huge, he adds. Huge.

Many martial-arts and self-defense schools contacted by The Daily Beast say that women, Muslim Americans, and LGBTQ individuals account for an uncharacteristic portion of the latest barrage. This could be due to increased instances of hate crimes targeting specific groups that happen to typically align with the other side of the aisle than President-elect Trump and his supporters. The FBI recently released statistics that showed a 6 percent increase in hate crimes last year, mostly due to an escalation in incidents against Muslims. Its definitely the level ofI wouldnt say paranoia, but I would say cautiousness, says Dreifuss.

Radical MMA is in the planning stages of putting together a special seminar for members of groups that could be targeted by hate crimes in a cultural climate where the mainstream has deemed the attitude behind them more acceptable. In hate crimes, the patterns of attack can be very different [than non-hate crime attacks], says Dreifuss. If youre a member of the LGBTQ community, youre probably going to be approached by more than one person, its usually two on one or three on one. They triangulate you. They back you into some sort of corner and they bum rush you. They trap you first, they corner you first.

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The number of Muslim-American, LGBTQ, and womens groups that has contacted Brooklyns Center for Anti-Violence Education has far surpassed the facilitys capabilities. Executive Director Tracy Hobson notes theres a desperation in some of their requests. They need self-defense training, and they need it now. The organization has called on per-diem employees to help address their increased needs, but those can only go so far.

In other parts of the country, the cause-effect relationship between President-elect Trumps #MAGA nation and a flocking to self-defense instruction is less cut and dry. For example, in Southfield, Michigan, a middle-class suburb of Detroit, more people than usual have filled classes at Dallo Martial Arts. But Nick Cavellino, who holds the title of Sihing (which loosely translated means big brother in the art) at the facility, says people arent heading his way because theyre worried Donald Trumps minions are going to personally victimize them. Some people are interested in self-defense because of all the riots and stuff, he says.

And in Chicago, Jeff Horvitzs Krav Academy Inc. has seen an increase in membership due to local crimeassaults, robberies, and sexual assaults in gentrified neighborhoods like Wicker Park. Im getting a lot more interesting calls from more women. Im getting more calls from people from India, which is unusual. Im getting calls from women who are joggers and women who work late at night, he says.

Panic over what a Donald Trump administration would actually do to already-marginalized groups isnt confined to New York City, where it seems the masses are unwittingly fashioning themselves into an army of hand-to-hand combat experts.

Amelia Dorn, director of IMPACT Personal Safety of Colorado in Denver, has also noticed a marked acceleration in people interested in enrolling in self-defense classes. Were getting this week as many as wed get in a month or two, she says.

Dorn believes that the elections outcome indicated to many of her students that they cant trust the government to look out for their needs. I think that there is the sense that while the judicial and legal system were less than helpful [to sexual-abuse survivors] a couple weeks ago, now it feels so permissive, it seems to excuse the behavior of misogynists These women feel now that trusting the people in power is not even a choice. Reporting it to the police is not even a choice. If something happens to them, they feel like half the world is going to think that theyre ridiculous and blame them.

For those concerned about Donald Trump, the real battle over the next four years will be fought in the Supreme Court confirmation process, in local and state governments, in Washington backrooms that would be filled with smoke 20 years ago but now are filled with the ghosts of bygone senators flatulence. And a real revolution, if it were to come to that, wouldnt be fought through grappling. So why engage in physical training in the wake of existential trauma?

Southfield, Michigans Nick Cavallino believes theres catharsis in the art of physical engagement. Chicagos Jeff Horvitz says Krav Maga teaches practitioners not to hesitate in responding to violence. Brooklyns Tracy Hobson believes that while self-defense cant defend anybody against the dismantling of the Voting Rights Act, it can encourage people to remain engaged in society as human beings, to leave their houses, to be a part of a world that suddenly feels hostile.

I do think it helps people build their confidence right now, she says. We see this with survivors. Self-defense helps them get their confidence, helps them move in the world with their whole selves. And I think thats not to be underplayed.

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click2watch · 6 years ago

Text

When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

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click2watch · 6 years ago

Text

When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

——————-

The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

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click2watch · 6 years ago

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When There’s Blood in the Street (Why It’s Not Quite Time to Be Long Crypto)

Timothy Enneking is the founder and the primary principal of Digital Capital Management, LLC (DCM).

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The data set used is all related to bitcoin drops of 80 percent or more.

This leaves us with four instances: a bit too few in an ideal world, but enough, in some cases, to reach some rather definite conclusions.

The four drops are:

Then, once crypto markets hit bottom, how long does a recovery generally take?

We see those data below:

Are we at the bottom?

Further analysis is required to determine this. Let’s call it “spike analysis.”

The next peak, in April 2013 was even more dramatic, with a jump of 25-40 perecent depending on what one chooses as the starting point.

The final peak, and almost certainly the best known, was in December of last year. This was roughly a 12 percent peak and was extremely clear.

Finally, we look at the current price chart. We can see that there was a large drop from 6,000, but there has been nothing like a “violent” bottom put in – in fact, the opposite is true.

When capitulation?

Here is my thought on capitulation: it will be obvious to nearly everyone when it happens. If lots of people are asking whether “that move down” was capitulation or not, it wasn’t.

One further point I would like to make is to address the question which “crypto folk” never ask, but which “fiat folk” do: Can the Bitcoin price drop to zero?

Bitcoin in red via Shutterstock

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