#there's a 60 acre and a 30 acre fire happening near me

[savage-rhi]

😀

[ericvick]

Baby boomers reassess downsizing during pandemic

When Jonathan Sweig and his wife sold their family home of 25 years in Franklin and moved into a 1,400-square-foot condo in the Back Bay last July, it was part of a plan set in motion long before anyone had heard of COVID-19.

Theirs was a fairly common migration: For years, empty-nesters in the suburbs have sold their longtime family homes and downsized to a downtown condo, where they could spend less time mowing the lawn and more time walking to theaters, restaurants, and Red Sox games, said Chestnut Hill realtor Mary Gillach.

Then the pandemic all but silenced the joyful noise of city life and hit the brakes on that inflow of suburban boomers.

“That’s so not happening now,’’ Gillach said.

Not only was it difficult to downsize during a pandemic, Sweig said, but the lockdown felt like an inopportune time to move from a spacious five-bedroom Colonial, with a yard and pool, to a two-bedroom condo in a dormant downtown. “We had to adjust because the lifestyle that we imagined didn’t really pan out right away,’’ he said.

The Sweigs’ former home in Franklin. —Jonathan Sweig

Sweig, who works in Cambridge, also had been looking forward to a shorter commute after traveling two hours a day for work. He got his wish, of course, but not because of the move. “Ironically, now I’m 5 to 10 minutes away, and I’m not going to the office,’’ he said.

However, their first-floor unit still ticked a lot of boxes, Sweig said, with perks like an in-unit laundry setup and a patio for gardening and grilling. The couple have enjoyed strolling to favorite restaurants and walking their new puppy, a black Lab named Lilly, which has helped them make friends in the neighborhood. They’re now closer to Winthrop and its beaches, where Sweig grew up and likes to take the dog. And most important, one of their daughters lives downtown, too. “It was really hard to get her to come to our home in Franklin — now we see her once a week,’’ he said.

In fact, the top consideration for a lot of baby boomer buyers, Gillach said, has become proximity to adult kids and grandchildren. “They’re more and more interested in being near those they love, willing to give up that dream of what they were going to do in retirement to be near family,’’ Gillach said.

“Almost all the boomers I am working with seem to be moving to get closer to their adult children,’’ said Michelle Oates, a realtor with Coldwell Banker Realty in Andover. Some of her clients have even moved back from Florida to be near their kids. “COVID has afforded those who are still working with more of an opportunity to live where they want,’’ Oates added, “and I think it’s given all of us, boomers included, a new perspective on the importance of quality of life and spending time with our loved ones.’’

As Brian O’Connor and his wife planned to sell their family home in Reading, where they had raised three kids, they concluded that “Going south was out of the question.’’ The couple wanted to stay close to their children, all of whom have settled into good jobs in Boston, so they initially planned to buy something in or close to the city that would allow them to travel without worrying about maintenance. “I don’t want to be snowblowing anymore,’’ said O’Connor, 60.

Then, COVID hit, and the idea of urban living lost some of its luster. “We began to consider slightly more secluded locations away from the city that still had easy access to Boston,’’ O’Connor said. The couple purchased a new home at Millwood Preserve, a 55-plus community in Framingham across from 820-acre Callahan State Park. “With the large state park right next door for hiking and beautiful farms nearby, we felt like we were deep in the country,’’ O’Connor said, “[but] Boston is only 30 minutes away down the Pike.’’

Those preferences represent near-universal trends in 55-plus housing, said Jane Marie O’Connor, a 55-plus housing consultant — some of which started before the pandemic, but have been further reinforced by the realities of COVID.

Jane Marie O’Connor said buyers looking at 55-plus communities want to be more connected to nature, placing a premium on nearby walking trails, and have a new appreciation for outdoor relaxation and entertaining. “People are putting in fire pits, fireplaces, and outdoor kitchens in covered areas that bring the inside out,’’ she said.

Another highly valued amenity at 55-plus communities are dog parks. “Dogs are a big deal,’’ O’Connor said, and have been for a few years. “Where communities didn’t allow dogs before, now they’re putting in dog parks, they’re putting in pet grooming rooms.’’ With the MSPCA reporting a 20 percent increase in pet adoptions last year, that’s unlikely to change.

Naturally, the pandemic has led all buyers, including baby boomers, to conduct more of their home search online, at least in the early stages. That means buyers who show up to tour homes are farther along in their decision-making than in years past, she said — and represent the leading edge of what will likely be a wave of buyers who may have been waiting out the pandemic. “There’s a pent-up demand, and we’re seeing that across the country,’’ she said.

That’s perhaps good news for younger buyers, who face a stifling shortage of homes for sale. “Most of my clients are the young families who desperately want these boomer houses, which aren’t coming on the market,’’ Oates said.

Absent any urgent need, a baby boomer’s timeline for “right-sizing’’ typically takes more than a year from the decision to sell until move-in day, Jane Marie O’Connor said, so some of last year’s sales were likely based on decisions made long before the pandemic.

Indeed, Rodney Harrell, vice president of family, home, and community at AARP, said it’s too soon to draw conclusions from last year.

“Housing decisions are big decisions, and typically take a while; unlike many consumer decisions, we can’t simply ‘return’ a home to the store and buy a new one,’’ Harrell said. “We do know that the desire to stay in one’s home has remained high over the years, and I don’t expect that to drop substantially as a result of COVID.’’

Compass realtor Kevin Caulfield has seen baby boomers reacting to the pandemic in a few ways.

“Some people stayed the course. They had a plan in terms of what they were doing, sold their house, and continued on with that plan and bought something and moved into Boston,’’ Caulfield said. Others have put that goal on hold until they can safely reap the benefits of an urban lifestyle, he added, and some have stayed put, with a renewed appreciation for their no-longer-empty nest. “[They’ve] enjoyed having their college-aged kids or young adult children at home through the pandemic, and they’ve put the space back to use,’’ he said.

But Caulfield, who is lead broker for The Archer, a new 62-unit luxury conversion in Beacon Hill, said he’s seeing renewed activity and interest in the city as case counts fall and more people are vaccinated.

Meanwhile, more than three-quarters of Americans over 55 own their homes, which means many baby boomers have realized quite a bit of equity in the past eight years as prices have surged. Perhaps seeking escape from COVID contagion and claustrophobia, some have used that home equity to purchase a second property in a more serene setting, from the Berkshires to Cape Cod. “A lot of people downtown have bought other places. They have bought vacation homes that they’re living at permanently right now,’’ Gillach said, “so the Cape has gone off the charts.’’

Sales of single-family homes surged more than 20 percent in both Berkshire and Barnstable counties in 2020, with median prices shooting up nearly 16 percent in both counties year over year, according to the Warren Group, a real estate analytics firm. Sales on Nantucket were up 71.2 percent, and the median price of a single-family sold on the island rose by 34.2 percent, to more than $2 million.

Bruce Jones, a writer and retired educator, beat the latest rush into Cape Cod real estate by about 37 years. Jones, 75, and his wife, Maggie, love their home — and its location, on a half acre in Barnstable Village overlooking woods and a kettle pond. “The yard kicks my ass in a way it didn’t used to,’’ Jones admitted — enough that he started looking at smaller condos in the area, where maintenance would be included in the homeowners association fee.

After all, Jones said, with most of their adult children and grandkids now living in the Pacific Northwest, there isn’t much stopping them from downsizing. So he casually asked a realtor friend about a condo that interested him, in a converted estate off Route 6A — and crashed into a churning real estate market at high tide.

“It had sold after being on the market just a few days,’’ Jones said, so he and his wife are likely to stay put, he said. “With COVID-19, we’ve re-embraced our house, renovated a first-floor bathroom for aging in place. We’re happy and thankful for what we have.’’

In the Back Bay, Sweig is similarly content and, perhaps typical of his generation, optimistic as he waits for Boston to return to its former vibrancy.

“I was always coming into Boston as a young kid, so this is like coming home for me,’’ he said. “It definitely took time to get used to living in a smaller space, but we’re really happy here.’’

Jon Gorey blogs about homes at HouseandHammer.com. Send comments to [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @jongorey. Subscribe to our free real estate newsletter at pages.email.bostonglobe.com/AddressSignUp. Follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter @globehomes.

[toldnews-blog]

New Post has been published on https://toldnews.com/world/united-states-of-america/can-humans-help-trees-outrun-climate-change/

Can Humans Help Trees Outrun Climate Change?

By Moises Velasquez-Manoff

Illustrations by Andrew Khosravani

April 25, 2019

SCITUATE, R. I. — Foresters began noticing the patches of dying pines and denuded oaks, and grew concerned. Warmer winters and drier summers had sent invasive insects and diseases marching northward, killing the trees.

If the dieback continued, some woodlands could become shrub land.

Most trees can migrate only as fast as their seeds disperse — and if current warming trends hold, the climate this century will change 10 times faster than many tree species can move, according to one estimate. Rhode Island is already seeing more heat and drought, shifting precipitation and the intensification of plagues such as the red pine scale, a nearly invisible insect carried by wind that can kill a tree in just a few years.

The dark synergy of extreme weather and emboldened pests could imperil vast stretches of woodland.

So foresters in Rhode Island and elsewhere have launched ambitious experiments to test how people can help forests adapt, something that might take decades to occur naturally. One controversial idea, known as assisted migration, involves deliberately moving trees northward. But trees can live centuries, and environments are changing so fast in some places that species planted today may be ill-suited to conditions in 50 years, let alone 100. No one knows the best way to make forests more resilient to climatic upheaval.

These great uncertainties can prompt “analysis paralysis,” said Maria Janowiak, deputy director of the Forest Service’s Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, or N.I.A.C.S. But, she added, “We can’t keep waiting until we know everything.”

In Rhode Island, the state’s largest water utility is experimenting with importing trees from hundreds of miles to the south to maintain forests that help purify water for 600,000 people. In Minnesota, a lumber businessman is trying to diversify the forest on his land with a “300-year plan” he hopes will benefit his grandchildren. And in five places around the country, the United States Forest Service is running a major experiment to answer a basic question: What’s the best way to actually help forests at risk?

Some worry about the unintended consequences of shuffling plants and animals around and that the approach will become widely adopted. “Moving species is the equivalent of ecological gambling,” said Anthony Ricciardi, a professor of invasion ecology and environmental science at McGill University in Montreal. “You’re spinning the roulette wheel.”

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It is also complicated. On Lake Michigan, one adaptation planner trying to help the Karner blue butterfly survive is considering creating an oak savanna well to the north, and moving the butterflies there. But the ideal place for the relocation already hosts another type of unique forest — one that he is trying to save to help a tiny yellow-bellied songbird that is also threatened by warming.

In other words, he may find himself both fighting climate change and embracing it, on the same piece of land.

Rhode Island: Swapping In Persimmon

One humid day last fall, Christopher Riely hiked to an 8-foot-tall wire fence in the forest. “It’s amazing how high deer can jump,” he said, unlocking the towering gate.

Mr. Riely helps manage 20 square miles of woodland for Rhode Island’s largest water utility, Providence Water. Inside the five-acre enclosure, among the native oaks and pines, he had planted southern trees including persimmon and shortleaf pine — species better adapted to hotter, drier conditions. And they were thriving.

Mr. Riely is particularly delighted by the Virginia pine, brought in from a nursery nearly 400 miles away in Maryland. “For New England, this is quite incredible growth,” he said, pointing to a young tree now taller than he is. It suggests that climate has already changed enough in Southern New England for some mid-Atlantic species to survive.

Bringing in southern trees may be one solution. But it won’t help, he has discovered, without first dealing with the deer. They ate many of the young trees he planted outside the fence, and are a major reason the hardwood forest has difficulty regenerating.

As a cautionary tale, Mr. Riely looks to the forest collapse that struck near Denver some years back. Conditions in the Rockies differ substantially from those in Rhode Island; still, he calls it “a water supplier’s nightmare.”

In the 1990s, dry spells, insects and disease began killing trees there. In 1996 and 2002, ferocious fires tore through. Then the rains came. Flash floods carried dark, ash-filled silt and debris into Denver’s reservoirs, clogging them.

So in 2010, Denver Water began replanting the mountainsides, making the forest more drought-resistant by spacing trees farther apart and reducing competition for water. Opening the forest canopy allowed other kinds of plants, which also prevent erosion, to grow as well.

Failing to plan for the changing environment was a costly lesson, said Christina Burri, Denver Water’s watershed scientist. A big part of what she does today, she added, is “convincing people about the benefits of being proactive.” Planning ahead, she said, is much cheaper than reacting to catastrophes.

Minnesota: The ‘300-Year Plan’

For someone who makes his living selling wood, John Rajala leaves a lot of trees on the land. It’s part of what he calls his “300-year plan” to deal with climate change.

His family business in northern Minnesota, called Rajala Companies, owns 22,000 acres of northern pine and hardwood forest. He harvests the wood and mills it into flooring, siding and roof beams.

One cool day last fall, he proudly showed me around his land near the headwaters of the Mississippi River, a gently rolling forest of straight eastern white pines, quaking aspen and the occasional flaming red maple. The old “legacy trees,” as he calls them, will reseed the forests with good genetic stock.

“That’s a thousand-dollar tree, and we’ll never cut it down,” he said, pointing to a majestic, century-old white pine.

Mr. Rajala’s planning for climate change is unusual in his profession. “The more careful thought about climate change just isn’t being done” by many industrial-scale companies that manage forestland, said Chris Swanston, who heads the Forest Service’s N.I.A.C.S.

One reason, he and others say, is that so much timberland is owned by real-estate investment trusts and other financial vehicles, which are geared toward short term profits.

Industrial foresters might plant one or just a few tree types, to make harvesting and management easier. Mr. Rajala has embraced a different approach. “I want to accelerate as fast as I can the diversification of species,” he said. Even if some species do badly in a warmer tomorrow, he thinks, others will flourish.

Unlike Mr. Riely in Rhode Island, Mr. Rajala is not willing to introduce nonnative species — yet. But he’s sculpting the forest to make it more resilient.

Birch, a cool-weather tree valued by cabinet makers, isn’t doing as well as it used to. So Mr. Rajala keeps the tree only on north-facing slopes, where it’s naturally cooler.

On south-facing slopes, he is selecting for red oak and maple, two native species projected to do better in a warmer future.

His strategy has required shrewd marketing. Because he leaves many of his best trees standing to reseed the next generation, the wood going to his mills is often imperfect, particularly if it’s aspen or birch, which have started showing signs of climate stress.

Mr. Rajala’s new sales pitch? Imperfection adds character.

Chippewa National Forest: Grand Experiment

One of the most ambitious studies of how to help forests is happening near Mr. Rajala’s land. Launched four years ago by the Forest Service, the project set out to scientifically test the best approach to helping woodlands adapt. With five sites around the country, the study is perhaps the largest of its kind in the world.

In Minnesota, the Forest Service planted 274,000 seedlings over an area roughly 60 percent the size of Central Park. It is testing four approaches: passively letting nature take its course; thinning and managing mostly native trees along traditional lines; growing a mix of native species but with some coming from 80 to 100 miles to the south; and the most radical one, bringing in nonnative trees from warmer, drier areas in nearby states.

The nonnative trees include ponderosa pine from South Dakota and Nebraska, and bitternut hickory from southern Minnesota and Illinois. So far, the pine is doing well.

Conditions may not be optimal for the trees now, but “the idea is to get them established now for 30 years in the future,” said Brian Palik, a forest ecologist with the Forest Service’s Northern Research Station, who oversees the Minnesota site.

Lake Michigan: Where to Put an Oak Savanna?

On Lake Michigan, climate change threatens both the Kirtland’s warbler and the Karner blue butterfly. And saving one may complicate preservation of the other.

As recently as 2009, the Indiana Dunes National Park hosted one of the country’s healthiest populations of the endangered Karner blue. By 2015, they had mostly disappeared.

“I’m pretty sure they’re not in Indiana anymore,” said Christopher Hoving, an adaptation specialist with Michigan’s Department of Natural Resources.

Karner blues inhabit only pine barrens and oak savannas, rare habitats of wildflowers and grasses interspersed with trees, that occur in poor, sandy soil deposited by ice age glaciers. Mr. Hoving and his colleagues think the only way to save the southern populations of Karner blues may be to create a new oak savanna at the northern edge of Michigan’s lower peninsula, where similar soil occurs.

But there, Mr. Hoving’s project to save the Karner blue may collide with his efforts to save the Kirtland’s warbler. In the same place he’s thinking of creating an oak savanna, he is also trying to prevent a dense jack pine forest (which the warbler needs) from retreating north.

The region probably has enough room to host both ecosystem types, he said, at least for a while. But “it’s a high-risk proposition,” he said.

His two projects embody the odd mixture of sunny pragmatism and clammy anxiety inherent in the very idea of humans moving life-forms around to save them from problems caused by humans.

In academia there is no consensus on assisted migration. Dr. Ricciardi, the McGill University professor of invasion ecology, calls it a “techno-fix” that fails to address the “root cause of endangerment or ecosystem erosion” — in this case, climate change.

Not everyone agrees with Dr. Ricciardi. Jason McLachlan, an ecologist at the University of Notre Dame, once spurned the idea of assisted migration, but his views have evolved as the current predicament has sunk in. He concedes Dr. Ricciardi’s point about the unknowable risks of moving things around, but counters that doing nothing is also “extremely risky.”

His broader critique is that classic conservation science risks failure today because it assumes the world is static — and if the world ever was static, it clearly isn’t anymore. Consider the Endangered Species Act, he said, a bedrock of modern conservation. It aims to return species to their original habitat.

But what if they’re now ill-suited to those areas?

To deal with the coming upheavals, our very concept of nature and the meaning of conservation needs to become more fluid, Mr. McLachlan said. “We don’t have a philosophy of conservation that’s consistent with the changes that are afoot.”

For more news on climate and the environment, follow @NYTClimate on Twitter.

[togreeceandbeyond]

17th of June we took our time getting ready for the day then went out to find the fabled Tram 28. We went to a metro station to buy a 24 hour ticket. While there we were having trouble with the machine not wanting to take our credit card instead of a debit card. A little old man was helping everyone including us. We finally got our cards bought using cash and he said to me could you help me out a little bit since I helped you? I knew that was coming so I gave him some euros by dropping them in his pocket while he was talking to someone else. He smiled and understood I didn't want people seeing me give him the money. It took a while to find Tram 28 and when we did there was an hour-long wait to get aboard. We almost walked away right then but instead we visited with a British couple, Richard and Anne. We had a good discussion with them about politics,being responsible for your own actions, and not looking for a handout. We also talked about being safe and careful in the less touristy parts of town. I showed him my secret weapon, the car keys that had a spring loaded key. He said yes that sounds like a switchblade knife and might make people think twice about bothering you. I told him I thought I could also do a lot of damage with that key if necessary. His back started hurting and they couldn't stay for the tram ride. The couple behind him were from Italy and we enjoyed a good conversation with them before we got on the train. Philippe and Marta live north of Venice and she is a graphic designer and he's a trainer with the Volkswagen Corporation. Whatever you do when you go to Lisbon, don't ride Tram 28 unless you ride it at 7 in the morning or so. By 11 it was very crowded with tourists and commuters. It's too crowded to get a good look at anything unless you're in the back where we were. Then you only see things as you are pulling away from them and you don't know what it was. There was no narration or any explanation of what you were looking at. Just don't believe the tour guides. We got off at the end and had lunch in a cemetery before heading down to the seaside. We were walking along and found out there was going to be a celebration of Navy Day which included a visit from the president of Portugal. We waited around and listened to some boring and unintelligible speeches for about an hour or so. We did get to see and hear the president of Portugal before we caught a bus back to our hotel to rest before our dinner with Stephanie and Nuno. We met them at a plaza not far from the hotel and we recognized Stephanie very quickly. We then proceeded to a neighborhood restaurant which only had about eight or nine tables for dinner. They wanted us to have a typical Portuguese meal. I had  small sardines that you don't have to debone. You just chop off the heads and tails and eat the fish. I wouldn't want to get a large portion because I can only eat two-thirds of mine along with the rice and wine. E had a chicken sausage with french fries. While we were eating a couple sat at the table beside us. He is a clinical psychologist and had met his wife in Buenos Aires when he went there to study the tango. They have been together ever since and is currently touring Europe looking for someplace to work and teach. He is Lithuanian who was born in Germany and moved to the US when he was a child. Quite an interesting background for both of them but we didn't get much information from his wife. Stephanie and Nuno walked us back to our hotel about 11. It was another difficult goodbye because we had really bonded with them very quickly. There was a undercurrent of asking us to spend another day on Sunday and we could have but the decision was never really made. There were lots of hugs and goodbyes and promises of meeting again someday. That rarely happens on a cruise.   June 18   On Father's Day we left for Porto. We never got there because we decided to go to a little town just outside Lisbon called Sintra. There a man started, and his family finished, a magical wonderland. It was like his own fairy land where you come in touch with the cosmos, relax and enjoy life. Maybe you could even learn a little something about yourself. It is probably a 30 acre garden with a mansion. The map was not very good but we were able to find all the things we wanted to see, including a giant sequoia. After that we headed toward Porto. I knew we would only get part of the way there. We found a beach town that had a tourist rural place about eight klicks out of town which was inexpensive including breakfast. We found out why it was inexpensive. It was clean but it was like a 1950s or 60s motel on Route 66. Only one outlet in the bedroom connected a TV refrigerator and one cell phone. The people were very nice. We had a good night sleep because it was very quiet. We left fairly early for Porto. We wanted to see the best preserved Roman ruins on the Iberian Peninsula so we stopped there on the way to Porto. It was very nice, well-preserved, and very extensive.   The smoke from the large forest fire that was northeast of us was very thick and pungent. As of Monday afternoon, 62 people had been killed in the forest fire. Most of them were killed in their cars as they were trying to flee the forest fire. It has been very dry and hot in Portugal and Spain the spring.   After that we headed to a another must see place called Mata de Forest which is a 2000 year old monastery for people to go visit and meditate. It was started by some monks who planted over 700 species of plants from around the world. It is a spectacular place with miles and miles of paths through the forest to see many things including the cedar of Joseph. It's supposed to be the oldest tree in the forest. At some point people came to this area and harmed the plants. Pope somebody the six made an edict that anyone who destroyed anything at the forest will be excommunicated. While wandering around on a one and a half hour walk that had been suggested by the information office, we encountered a couple from Israel who were looking for the same sights as we we were. They were lost and decided I couldn't do any worse. We finished our walk with them and had coffee before we left the park to go Porto. They are very interesting and we exchanged emails so we can keep in touch. We now have a place to sleep in Jerusalem if we decide to go to Israel someday. I think that brings us up to Monday evening. We got to Porto late but found an apartment near downtown that we couldn't drive to, or so we thought, with GPS directions. I found a parking place but GPS said we were less than 100 m from our apartment. Two guys were in the street directing people into the parking places that you had to pay for so I didn't know their racket. We weren't sure of the parking restrictions and Elizabeth went into a local store to find out. They said we could park there until 8 in the morning. When I parked one of the gentleman came up to me and started talking. I asked him if he were going to keep an eye on my car. Not sure if he understood or not but I said I didn't want anything to happen to my car and I took a picture of him and said in case something happens, I'll show your picture to the police. His friend said can you take my picture to? That's when I knew they were just looking for a handout, but I went in to ask the store owner if that were true and should I be worried? She said not to worry, they won't bother your car. They just look for $0.50 or an euro. It turned out our hotel was about 75 feet from where we parked. Luckily for us the clerk had not gone home on time and he was still there when we rang the doorbell. He helped us get settled before he left for the evening. We went to the grocery store for provisions because we were too tired to go out to eat. The apartment is a really nice place, king bed, living room/dining room combination with a fold-out sofa, full kitchen and a great bathroom. It's obvious that some entrepreneurs are renovating apartment buildings downtown for rental properties. There are a lot of buildings being renovated and the one across the alley from us is renovated on the front portion and the back, off the street, of the same building is in ruins. We got up early so we could move the car and find a 24-hour parking garage. Google was no help so we started driving and found one about half a mile from the hotel. We then headed downtown to see the church that everyone recommends and the bridge that was designed and built by Gustave Eiffel's student around 1886. It was a rather interesting walk up and down through narrow alleys and streets, sometimes along the waterfront. We were walking up a long flight of stairs and met a young woman from Vancouver, British Columbia, looking for a church. We got her going in the right direction and as we were saying goodbye to her, a French couple came up and asked if we knew where the bridge was. We said we thought we did but we should Google it.  It was only 150 meters away but we couldn't see it for the buildings.  They had walked right past it to where we had met them. We walked across the bridge part way with the French couple. After taking in the sights, we decided to go back to our hotel for lunch. On the way back across the bridge, we ran into the French couple again and had a 30 minute conversation about French politics, England getting out of the EU and how convenient it was to travel with one currency, the Euro. John Peter (Jacques? Pierre) had moved to Paris to try to find a job because it was hard to find a job as a software engineer. His wife Laure works with an import-export company and her English comes in handy. She had actually studied in the Lake of the Dardanelles in Arkansas on an exchange trip many years ago.  It's very interesting when people open up to you and tell you what's really on their mind, the second time you run into them. We had a very open, interesting and intellectual conversation about travel, enjoying the fruits of our labor and travelling while healthy.  Since we have bumped into them twice and had really enjoyed their conversation, we gave them a business card in case they ever come to America to visit. On the way back to the hotel we bumped into Michael, who is selling tickets on a train ride around some wineries, with sampling, followed by a 40 minute river boat cruise for only 22 Euros. We said we don't usually do that but you seem like a nice chap. He was curious about my accent. I told him I was from New York but he said it sounded more southern to him. I teased him for a little bit before we told him the truth. He speaks English, French and Portuguese probably with a little Spanish thrown in. He was supposed to go to England to work this summer but decided he wanted to stay home with his friends. We're glad and we reserved a seat on the train and on the boat. We’ll have a late dinner tonight (for us) on the river before going on the Douro river valley road tomorrow on our way to northern Spain.  

[biofunmy]

Poway, Calif.: A Tight Community With San Diego at Its Doorstep

Arlene and Rob Tendick were living with their 1-year-old daughter in San Diego’s hip North Park neighborhood in 2015 when they decided they needed more space.

Ms. Tendick, a public affairs consultant, and Mr. Tendick, a physical therapist, loved the walkability of their neighborhood and its proximity to breweries and good restaurants. But sharing their 800-square-foot cottage with a toddler made for cramped quarters, and they faced a busy street, which meant their growing daughter couldn’t safely play outside.

“I think we had all of the reasons that every young couple has when they move to the ‘burbs,” Ms. Tendick said. “We wanted open space so Abby could play and run and explore, and we didn’t have that in North Park. And it was important for us to put down roots and be somewhere where she could grow up.”

Poway, Calif., a city in northeastern San Diego County with more than 50,000 residents, was the only community the couple, both 36, considered. Poway’s schools consistently outrank those in the neighboring San Diego Unified School District, which Ms. Tendick said was the primary draw. But it also has fishing, hiking and the trappings of a small town, despite being only a half-hour from downtown San Diego and minutes from major San Diego freeways. Abby is now 5 years old and in kindergarten, and the family has added a son, who is 1.

Moving to Poway, Ms. Tendick said, has offered them the best of both worlds: “We wanted to live in San Diego, but it was important for us to have this smaller community.”

The couple, first-time homeowners, settled on a 1,200-square-foot ranch-style home in Poway with three bedrooms and two baths, paying $453,000. They were following good friends who had settled in Poway a few months earlier from the bustling Little Italy neighborhood. Within a year, Ms. Tendick’s sister, Alyssa Roscoe, moved to the neighborhood with her husband. The three couples now have five young children among them.

“Poway feels a little bit like going back in time,” said Ms. Tendick. “When I was a kid I would play outside until the streetlights came on, and there are very few communities that are still like that, but Poway is. That feeling of nostalgia is still alive and well. You don’t feel like you’re in giant San Diego.”

Peter Harnish, 38, and his wife, Andrea Harnish, 41, moved to Poway in 2009 for many of the same reasons. “We didn’t have any children yet. We were freshly married and looking for our first home,” said Mr. Harnish, the chief executive of Well iQ, a health care digital feedback platform. “My wife was born and raised in San Diego, and she said, ‘O.K., if we’re going to have kids in the future, then we should be looking in Poway.’”

They paid $467,500 for a three-bedroom, two-bath house near Old Poway Park, where a turn-of-the-century railroad depot and several historic buildings have been preserved alongside newer restaurants and green space. In 2019, they sold that home for $655,000 and upgraded to a four-bedroom, three-bath house with high ceilings, a large backyard and a spacious master suite in Poway’s Bridlewood Lakeside neighborhood, for $925,000.

Leaving town was never really an option for the move, Mr. Harnish said: “The school system was the original reason we moved to Poway. And when we decided we wanted to stay, of course schooling played into it, but the community definitely did too.”

What You’ll Find

Poway sits east of Interstate 15 in northeast San Diego County. At its center is Old Poway Park, where you’ll find historic buildings including the Nelson House, built in the early 20th century, as well as a mock train depot and a functioning locomotive that still makes runs on Saturdays when the Poway Farmers Market sets up in the park.

13814 LAKE POWAY ROAD | A five-bedroom, three-and-a-half-bath house, built in 1990 on one acre, is listed for $1,385,000. 858-348-5475Credit…John Francis Peters for The New York Times

Lake Poway, in the city’s northeast section, is a destination for hiking trails, fishing and boating. Commerce is clustered along Pomerado Road, a four-lane thoroughfare lined with churches, schools and strip malls, as well as the Palomar Medical Center Poway, a 107-bed hospital.

What You’ll Pay

Prices in Poway’s housing market are holding steady. In 2019, there were 493 sales of single-family homes, at a median price of $782,500; in 2018 there were 501 such sales at a median price of $792,000, and in 2017 there were 564 such sales at a median price of $728,500, according to data from the San Diego Association of Realtors. Renters can find a two-bedroom apartment for about $1,600 a month, and those looking to lease a single-family home can expect to pay about $3,000 for a three-bedroom house.

13461 ACTON ROAD | A four-bedroom, two-bath house, built in 1972 on 0.17 acres, is listed for $630,000. 858-231-4997Credit…John Francis Peters for The New York Times

The Vibe

On April 27, 2019, a man armed with an AR-15 rifle entered the Chabad of Poway, an Orthodox synagogue, and opened fire, killing 60-year-old Lori Gilbert-Kaye and injuring three others, including the synagogue’s rabbi and an 8-year-old girl. The gunman, 20-year-old John T. Earnest, is set to go on trial in June.

It was an event, said Cynthia Elizondo, 53, a realtor and Poway resident of more than two decades, that traumatized the city. Residents, she said, responded exactly the way she expected they would.

13327 STONE CANYON ROAD | A three-bedroom, three-bath house, built in 1960 on 0.5 acres, is listed for $889,000. 760-803-2445Credit…John Francis Peters for The New York Times

Less than 72 hours after the shooting, she and more than 4,000 Poway residents packed into the gym at Poway High School for an emotional vigil. “It was a rally to show support, to show unity, and to tell the Jewish community here, ‘We’ve got your back,’” she said. “If it could happen here, it could happen anywhere.”

It wasn’t the first time Ms. Elizondo had seen the community in Poway mobilize. A breast cancer survivor, she said that when she was going through chemotherapy, friends and neighbors organized such an extensive meal train that she didn’t need to cook for months. “My community rallied around me,” she said.

14466 SOUTHERN HILLS LANE | A four-bedroom, three-and-a-half-bath house, built in 2001 on two acres, is listed for $1,995,000. 619-933-0050Credit…John Francis Peters for The New York Times

The Schools

Many young families choose Poway because of the Poway Unified School District, which operates 12 schools within Poway, as well as 26 additional schools in neighboring San Diego communities.

Elementary schools in Poway include Chapparal, Garden Road, Midland, Painted Rock, Pomerado, Tierra Bonita and Valley. During the 2018-19 school year, 76 percent of third-graders in the district met benchmarks for English language arts on the California Smarter Balanced Assessment test, compared with 56 percent in the San Diego Unified School District and 49 percent across California.

During the same year, 77 percent of third-graders in Poway Unified met benchmarks in math, compared with 60 percent districtwide and 50 percent statewide. (According to the California Department of Education, students with scores at or above benchmark levels on these tests are ready for higher-level coursework).

Most students in Poway will attend Poway High School, where during the 2017-18 school year, 92 percent of students who took the SAT exam met benchmarks for English, compared with 94 percent districtwide, 81 percent in the San Diego Unified School District, and 71 percent statewide; 82 percent of students met benchmarks for math, compared with 84 percent districtwide, 60 percent in the San Diego Unified School District, and 50 percent statewide. (For the SATs, the College Board defines students as “college ready” when their test scores meet a benchmark of 480 in English and 530 in math).

The Commute

Poway residents can commute to several of San Diego’s major business hubs. Downtown and the beaches are both about 30 minutes away, though rush hour can add an additional 45 minutes; business parks in Mira Mesa and Sorrento Valley can be reached in about 20 minutes. Drivers commuting to the business hubs of Vista and Carlsbad face gridlock through much of North County San Diego and rides that can stretch over an hour.

The History

Poway’s first residents were Native Americans from the Kumeyaay and Luiseño tribes, according to the City of Poway. White settlers began arriving in the late 1850s, and the town had 800 residents by 1887.

The first subdivision in Poway was opened in the 1950s by Poway Valley Homes, and the dam that created Lake Poway was built in 1971. The city incorporated in 1980.

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Joe’s Weather Blog: Another big change on Saturday including some snow (FRI-11/16)

Happy Friday! Today’s weather will actually be rather pleasant with milder temperatures chewing away at the snow that’s still out there in the shade. It can be very difficult to melt that shaded snow…the sun angle today is similar to late January so unless the winds are blowing strongly or the sun is shining on it…snow, even this early in the season can stick around.

I’ve been watching with interest the big storm in the northeast part of the country. There were some indicators that it was going to be more significant that what some forecasts were saying and with the timing being the evening rush hour…it was a chaotic mess in the northeast. I thought  the headline in the NY Daily News was a good one!

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and milder with highs well into the 50s

Tonight: Fair skies and seasonable with lows in the 30s

Tomorrow: The colder air rushes in during the morning…so odds are the temperatures will be steady to falling during the day. We may warm up through the 30s in the morning but then drop in the afternoon with increasing winds and clouds

Saturday night: Some snow is likely in the region with cold weather. Lows in the 20s

Sunday: Morning snow moves away. Odds favor a dusting to 2″…perhaps more of an emphasis on the lower end of this but we’ve seen over achieving systems and I want to pay attention to this aspect for Sunday morning. Then some clearing and chilly with highs only in the 30s

Discussion:

Let’s start with the snow on the ground nationwide today…not bad at all for mid November.

Almost 25% of the country has snow cover…

Compared to last year…only 9%

and the year before…only 1% (!)

Interestingly back in 2014 there was more snowcover than this year…almost 37%

There is always a big focus on the danger of tornadoes…unfortunately I think winter weather…including snow and ice is sort of shoved to the bottom of concerns in some weird way when it comes to situational awareness. Think about it…tornadoes affect relatively tiny areas of real estate…whereas winter storms…with snow and ice affects huge areas by comparison.

Preliminary fatal icy road accident count from November 14-16, 2018 winter storm as of early this morning, based on published news media reports. Arkansas the highest at 4 caused by bridge icing. #winterwx #ice #snow pic.twitter.com/MjXuT4sQTE

— icyroadsafety.com (@icyroadsafety) November 16, 2018

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This year 8 people have died in tornado related deaths. Thankfully while any death is tragic…this years lack of activity has kept the death toll lower than average.

As far as the winter weather goes in our next of the woods..this really won’t be an identifiable storm that can be tracked. This is more associated with some jet stream dynamics and some mid level influences. The mid level influence from this…roughly from about 5000 feet to about 12,000 feet is a bit more of a complicated explainer. Basically in a nutshell the situation tomorrow night has something involved called frontogenesis.

It’s Weather 301 time!

Frontogenesis, in the simplest way occurs when a front intensifies. When warm air converges into colder air. This horizontal convergence means uplift to the air…still with me?

Typically we see these types of occurrences, especially in the winter months occur above the surface…and sometimes IF they intensify more than you think…you get some stronger bands of precipitation develop. That would be the situation for later tomorrow into Sunday morning. Add in some jet stream dynamics and we should at least have some snow out there…and with temperatures near 32° and assuming we have something that happens at night…it should stick.

The issue is how strong and “fruitful” will these bands be and where will the better bands set up? That is more of a nowcasting situation and will be dealt with tomorrow evening.

Again a dusting to 2″ is possible, especially from the Metro northwards. Data today indicated the 36 highway corridor might be most favored for that 1-2″ swath…but obviously any slight shift south (very possible in these situations)…then the Metro comes into play.

There will be a return to milder weather next week…that should last until at least next Friday.

Then you see what’s happening in CA…with more than 60 dead from the Camp Fire alone…a number that will increase over the next few weeks as close to 600 are missing.

#CampFire Update 11/15/2018

– 63 fatalities, 53 identified, 631 missing – 11,862 structures destroyed (residential/commercial combined) 270 damaged, 9700 single family homes included in that total. – 141,000+ acres burned – 40% containment

– Possible 2nd origin of the fire

— Dave Toussaint (@engineco16) November 16, 2018

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Yesterday because of all the smoke in the air…northern CA had the worse air quality in the country.

Mind-boggling. SF tops world ranking for worst air quality today. #sf #AirQuality #campfire pic.twitter.com/DgN1ruU3Ha

— Alexis Roucourt (@AlexisRoucourt) November 15, 2018

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Our feature photo comes from ‎Kathy Vantrump Lake out towards Norbourne, MO from Monday

Joe

from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports https://fox4kc.com/2018/11/16/joes-weather-blog-another-big-change-on-saturday-including-some-snow-fri-11-16/

from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2018/11/16/joes-weather-blog-another-big-change-on-saturday-including-some-snow-fri-11-16/

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Can Humans Help Trees – The New York Times

Outrun Climate Change?

By Moises Velasquez-Manoff

Illustrations by Andrew Khosravani

April 25, 2019

SCITUATE, R. I. — Foresters began noticing the patches of dying pines and denuded oaks, and grew concerned. Warmer winters and drier summers had sent invasive insects and diseases marching northward, killing the trees.

If the dieback continued, some woodlands could become shrub land.

Most trees can migrate only as fast as their seeds disperse — and if current warming trends hold, the climate this century will change 10 times faster than many tree species can move, according to one estimate. Rhode Island is already seeing more heat and drought, shifting precipitation and the intensification of plagues such as the red pine scale, a nearly invisible insect carried by wind that can kill a tree in just a few years.

The dark synergy of extreme weather and emboldened pests could imperil vast stretches of woodland.

So foresters in Rhode Island and elsewhere have launched ambitious experiments to test how people can help forests adapt, something that might take decades to occur naturally. One controversial idea, known as assisted migration, involves deliberately moving trees northward. But trees can live centuries, and environments are changing so fast in some places that species planted today may be ill-suited to conditions in 50 years, let alone 100. No one knows the best way to make forests more resilient to climatic upheaval.

These great uncertainties can prompt “analysis paralysis,” said Maria Janowiak, deputy director of the Forest Service’s Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, or N.I.A.C.S. But, she added, “We can’t keep waiting until we know everything.”

In Rhode Island, the state’s largest water utility is experimenting with importing trees from hundreds of miles to the south to maintain forests that help purify water for 600,000 people. In Minnesota, a lumber businessman is trying to diversify the forest on his land with a “300-year plan” he hopes will benefit his grandchildren. And in five places around the country, the United States Forest Service is running a major experiment to answer a basic question: What’s the best way to actually help forests at risk?

Some worry about the unintended consequences of shuffling plants and animals around and that the approach will become widely adopted. “Moving species is the equivalent of ecological gambling,” said Anthony Ricciardi, a professor of invasion ecology and environmental science at McGill University in Montreal. “You’re spinning the roulette wheel.”

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It is also complicated. On Lake Michigan, one adaptation planner trying to help the Karner blue butterfly survive is considering creating an oak savanna well to the north, and moving the butterflies there. But the ideal place for the relocation already hosts another type of unique forest — one that he is trying to save to help a tiny yellow-bellied songbird that is also threatened by warming.

In other words, he may find himself both fighting climate change and embracing it, on the same piece of land.

Rhode Island: Swapping In Persimmon

One humid day last fall, Christopher Riely hiked to an 8-foot-tall wire fence in the forest. “It’s amazing how high deer can jump,” he said, unlocking the towering gate.

Mr. Riely helps manage 20 square miles of woodland for Rhode Island’s largest water utility, Providence Water. Inside the five-acre enclosure, among the native oaks and pines, he had planted southern trees including persimmon and shortleaf pine — species better adapted to hotter, drier conditions. And they were thriving.

Mr. Riely is particularly delighted by the Virginia pine, brought in from a nursery nearly 400 miles away in Maryland. “For New England, this is quite incredible growth,” he said, pointing to a young tree now taller than he is. It suggests that climate has already changed enough in Southern New England for some mid-Atlantic species to survive.

Bringing in southern trees may be one solution. But it won’t help, he has discovered, without first dealing with the deer. They ate many of the young trees he planted outside the fence, and are a major reason the hardwood forest has difficulty regenerating.

As a cautionary tale, Mr. Riely looks to the forest collapse that struck near Denver some years back. Conditions in the Rockies differ substantially from those in Rhode Island; still, he calls it “a water supplier’s nightmare.”

In the 1990s, dry spells, insects and disease began killing trees there. In 1996 and 2002, ferocious fires tore through. Then the rains came. Flash floods carried dark, ash-filled silt and debris into Denver’s reservoirs, clogging them.

So in 2010, Denver Water began replanting the mountainsides, making the forest more drought-resistant by spacing trees farther apart and reducing competition for water. Opening the forest canopy allowed other kinds of plants, which also prevent erosion, to grow as well.

Failing to plan for the changing environment was a costly lesson, said Christina Burri, Denver Water’s watershed scientist. A big part of what she does today, she added, is “convincing people about the benefits of being proactive.” Planning ahead, she said, is much cheaper than reacting to catastrophes.

Minnesota: The ‘300-Year Plan’

For someone who makes his living selling wood, John Rajala leaves a lot of trees on the land. It’s part of what he calls his “300-year plan” to deal with climate change.

His family business in northern Minnesota, called Rajala Companies, owns 22,000 acres of northern pine and hardwood forest. He harvests the wood and mills it into flooring, siding and roof beams.

One cool day last fall, he proudly showed me around his land near the headwaters of the Mississippi River, a gently rolling forest of straight eastern white pines, quaking aspen and the occasional flaming red maple. The old “legacy trees,” as he calls them, will reseed the forests with good genetic stock.

“That’s a thousand-dollar tree, and we’ll never cut it down,” he said, pointing to a majestic, century-old white pine.

Mr. Rajala’s planning for climate change is unusual in his profession. “The more careful thought about climate change just isn’t being done” by many industrial-scale companies that manage forestland, said Chris Swanston, who heads the Forest Service’s N.I.A.C.S.

One reason, he and others say, is that so much timberland is owned by real-estate investment trusts and other financial vehicles, which are geared toward short term profits.

Industrial foresters might plant one or just a few tree types, to make harvesting and management easier. Mr. Rajala has embraced a different approach. “I want to accelerate as fast as I can the diversification of species,” he said. Even if some species do badly in a warmer tomorrow, he thinks, others will flourish.

Unlike Mr. Riely in Rhode Island, Mr. Rajala is not willing to introduce nonnative species — yet. But he’s sculpting the forest to make it more resilient.

Birch, a cool-weather tree valued by cabinet makers, isn’t doing as well as it used to. So Mr. Rajala keeps the tree only on north-facing slopes, where it’s naturally cooler.

On south-facing slopes, he is selecting for red oak and maple, two native species projected to do better in a warmer future.

His strategy has required shrewd marketing. Because he leaves many of his best trees standing to reseed the next generation, the wood going to his mills is often imperfect, particularly if it’s aspen or birch, which have started showing signs of climate stress.

Mr. Rajala’s new sales pitch? Imperfection adds character.

Chippewa National Forest: Grand Experiment

One of the most ambitious studies of how to help forests is happening near Mr. Rajala’s land. Launched four years ago by the Forest Service, the project set out to scientifically test the best approach to helping woodlands adapt. With five sites around the country, the study is perhaps the largest of its kind in the world.

In Minnesota, the Forest Service planted 274,000 seedlings over an area roughly 60 percent the size of Central Park. It is testing four approaches: passively letting nature take its course; thinning and managing mostly native trees along traditional lines; growing a mix of native species but with some coming from 80 to 100 miles to the south; and the most radical one, bringing in nonnative trees from warmer, drier areas in nearby states.

The nonnative trees include ponderosa pine from South Dakota and Nebraska, and bitternut hickory from southern Minnesota and Illinois. So far, the pine is doing well.

Conditions may not be optimal for the trees now, but “the idea is to get them established now for 30 years in the future,” said Brian Palik, a forest ecologist with the Forest Service’s Northern Research Station, who oversees the Minnesota site.

Lake Michigan: Where to Put an Oak Savanna?

On Lake Michigan, climate change threatens both the Kirtland’s warbler and the Karner blue butterfly. And saving one may complicate preservation of the other.

As recently as 2009, the Indiana Dunes National Park hosted one of the country’s healthiest populations of the endangered Karner blue. By 2015, they had mostly disappeared.

“I’m pretty sure they’re not in Indiana anymore,” said Christopher Hoving, an adaptation specialist with Michigan’s Department of Natural Resources.

Karner blues inhabit only pine barrens and oak savannas, rare habitats of wildflowers and grasses interspersed with trees, that occur in poor, sandy soil deposited by ice age glaciers. Mr. Hoving and his colleagues think the only way to save the southern populations of Karner blues may be to create a new oak savanna at the northern edge of Michigan’s lower peninsula, where similar soil occurs.

But there, Mr. Hoving’s project to save the Karner blue may collide with his efforts to save the Kirtland’s warbler. In the same place he’s thinking of creating an oak savanna, he is also trying to prevent a dense jack pine forest (which the warbler needs) from retreating north.

The region probably has enough room to host both ecosystem types, he said, at least for a while. But “it’s a high-risk proposition,” he said.

His two projects embody the odd mixture of sunny pragmatism and clammy anxiety inherent in the very idea of humans moving life-forms around to save them from problems caused by humans.

In academia there is no consensus on assisted migration. Dr. Ricciardi, the McGill University professor of invasion ecology, calls it a “techno-fix” that fails to address the “root cause of endangerment or ecosystem erosion” — in this case, climate change.

Not everyone agrees with Dr. Ricciardi. Jason McLachlan, an ecologist at the University of Notre Dame, once spurned the idea of assisted migration, but his views have evolved as the current predicament has sunk in. He concedes Dr. Ricciardi’s point about the unknowable risks of moving things around, but counters that doing nothing is also “extremely risky.”

His broader critique is that classic conservation science risks failure today because it assumes the world is static — and if the world ever was static, it clearly isn’t anymore. Consider the Endangered Species Act, he said, a bedrock of modern conservation. It aims to return species to their original habitat.

But what if they’re now ill-suited to those areas?

To deal with the coming upheavals, our very concept of nature and the meaning of conservation needs to become more fluid, Mr. McLachlan said. “We don’t have a philosophy of conservation that’s consistent with the changes that are afoot.”

For more news on climate and the environment, follow @NYTClimate on Twitter.

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Joe’s Weather Blog: Another snow comes our way (SAT-11/10)

Well at least I sneaked in one day of no blogging…because the data last night and today shows another potential snowmaker coming this way later tomorrow into Monday morning. The set-up is somewhat different this time through and that brings some new challenges to figuring out how much will fall tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. There could be a tendency for a more southern trend as well as the situation unfolds tomorrow…we’re sort of on the northern fringe of this situation but it will need watching and for those who live south of the Metro…towards and south of US-50 and from Ottawa-Paola eastwards…you may be more in line for something a bit more noteworthy.

Forecast:

Tonight: Increasing clouds and NOT as cold with lows in the 25-28° range

Sunday: Increasing clouds with lowering and thickening clouds. We should remain dry for most of the day though. Highs, with the clouds may struggle to only 40-45°

Sunday night: We should see a brief wintry mix>snow situation develop. Accumulations in the KC area will likely be in the dusting to 2″ range into Monday early morning. See the discussion for the impacts with the warm roads initially

Monday: Mostly cloudy and colder with highs only around 30° or so

Discussion:

Let’s start out with the sub-headline of the blog…the cold weather. We set a low temperature record yesterday evening and up until 12AM it dropped to 13°. The previous record was 22° so we shattered the record for 11/9 by 9°. Impressive.

Then this morning we bottomed out at 9°…breaking the previous record by 10°. The amount of “breakage” of these two records, back to back no less, is what is fascinating to me. It’s also the 2nd time we’ve down back to back records in the last month. On 10/15-16 we broke the daily cold records…and here we did it again…less than a month later…fascinating!

No more records for low temperatures are likely. Tuesday morning will be the bottom of this cold weather pattern…after that we start to sort of rejigger the jet stream and we start to come out of this cold weather pattern. The record on Tuesday is 3° set in 1896…it’s safe.

Another record to keep an eye on would be the snowfall record for tomorrow (11/11). That is attainable depending on how things play out tomorrow night…

That’s not much and snow fall records, typically during the 1st 2/3rds of fall are not overly high at all.

Since 10/1 through yesterday…this is the 12th coldest we’ve been.

No doubt into the heart of the ext cold blast…Monday and Tuesday…we go up a few more lines on that chart above.

So there’s all that!

Now onto the next snow maker…or potential snow maker.

A surface low pressure area will be developing across eastern Colorado this afternoon and tomorrow will be dropping down into far western Texas. Then on Monday it will sort of reorganize in eastern TX and move into the SE part of the country on Tuesday.

That isn’t exactly a favorable big snow set up for us. BUT there is more to the atmosphere that what happens on the ground. Aloft another wave is in the process of digging into the Northern Rockies…you can sort of see it by the amount of cloud over over Montana today.

That wave will drop into the SE part of UT and far western CO tomorrow…and then start splitting up and shearing out into the Plains and another chuck dropping into TX. It’s really not the greatest set-up aloft either BUT there will be some small little pieces of energy coming through the Plains from this and they should be enough to set of precipitation later tomorrow to our south and towards the west of KC.

Tracking those small and fast moving impulses will be something that almost has to be nowcasted later tomorrow and tomorrow evening…that will be done mostly with radar.

Colder air will again start moving this way as this all starts to occur. We initially will have some dry air issues below about 6000-10,000 feet to overcome and get saturated but in time that could happen later in the afternoon and especially towards the evening.

The atmosphere, while above freezing at the surface for most of the day and into the early evening (important for snow accumulations) will overall support snow production and maintenance for the vast majority of whatever happens. Whatever falls before 6PM (if anything) may be mixed with some rain drops or ice pellets but the overwhelming majority should be snow again for this.

There will be differences between tomorrow and Thursday evening though, at least for awhile. Road temperatures may actually be warmer…so what falls will melt again…there is treatment leftover on the roads…that too will help. Once again though we’ll need to watch what happens later tomorrow night into Monday AM for potential freezing…and again perhaps moreso on the bridges and overpasses than on the regular roads. Another difference though is what happens on Monday AM…we were around 28-30° this past FRI AM after the snow…on MON AM we may be about 3-5 degrees colder…that may have more implications on the main roads IF they don’t dry out in time. So let’s file that one for potential on Monday AM.

In terms of amounts…tricky. The heaviest precip may actually be towards the southside once again and south of the Metro. There is 1-3″+ potential I think a few countries south of KC…while for KC my initial thoughts would be a dusting to 2″. I might lean towards the lower side of that range right now BUT it’s a very slight lean at this point.

One reason why this isn’t so cut and dry is that we’re dealing with table scraps of a wave that is splitting and zipping through the region. There really isn’t any strong wave coming in. There are some favorable indicators looking at the jet stream above us, in terms of our positioning (remember that was a clue for me the other day that there was upside to what happened) so that’s why I don’t want to lean too heavily right now towards the dusting scenario, especially on the grass and exposed surfaces.

IF I see indications of something a bit more robust tomorrow…some sort of identifiable wave or wave that look to generate more upward motion in the atmosphere that can set up some beefier snow areas…we’ll deal with that in tomorrow’s blog.

I wanted to touch on the situation out in CA..from a weather standpoint especially. I think, since this area doesn’t experience stuff like that…we don’t fully understand how and why these things can spread so fast…the fire that affected and is still affecting the Malibu area spread at the rate of 20 miles in one day yesterday. It’s being fanned by tinder dry conditions and winds that get to 60 MPH. The mountainous and hilly terrain out there allows these winds to get funneled and when something like air…or water gets funneled…the speed increases. Then when a fire starts…either by arson or because of downed power lines (or other reasons) things develop fast and spread faster. You can only treat those fires so much in that type of terrain. They’re too big for the firefighters and spread too quickly.

I mean come on…how can you get this knocked down quickly…look at the scope of it. There are heroic firefighters doing their darndest though to try to contain this thing…and protect life and property.

VIDEO: @LACoFireAirOps Firehawk helicopter flying along Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu on the way to protect life and property. This is a historic event. Please follow the direction of local authorities. (Original video, ok to use with credit) @VCFD @LACoFD #WoolseyFire pic.twitter.com/SvZSfipzfk

— LACoFireAirOps (@LACoFireAirOps) November 10, 2018

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From the vantage point of our @NASAEarth satellites in space, the fast-moving #CampFire threatening several towns in California can be in seen in natural color. Take a closer look at this image of #CaliforniaFires: https://t.co/ywQk1Lzo0K pic.twitter.com/0U5nLwqhrJ

— NASA (@NASA) November 9, 2018

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The fire in the Malibu area is called the Woolsey fire. The one farther north…the Camp Fire is also impressive and not in a good way. At least count close to 7000 structures have burned making this the most destructive fire in CA history.

There are many reasons why these fires are so bad…including the fact that we keep building structures (and obviously some crazy expensive ones) in areas that are subject to these types of fires. The weather conditions out there have also made things worse in many ways…by setting up the scenarios in the 1st place.

This is a fascinating thread about the multi-year set-up to these events.

If Northern California had received anywhere near the typical amount of autumn precipitation this year (around 4-5 in. of rain near #CampFire point of origin), explosive fire behavior & stunning tragedy in #Paradise would almost certainly not have occurred. (1/n) #CAfire #CAwx pic.twitter.com/2LBKjSVBMF

— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) November 10, 2018

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The Camp Fire has surpassed 100,000 acres…that’s about 156 sq miles…

IF you add up the square mileage in Olathe, Overland Park. Prairie Village and Leawood…you come up about 155 sq miles. My goodness.

In many ways CA is perfect for this because when they get a ton of rain…things grow like crazy…then when conditions turn dry and parched…everything can burns.

Fire weather outlook for Southern California is very grim. No legitimate relief in sight. #CampFire #WoolseyFire #ParadiseFire #ParadiseCA #Paradise #CaliforniaFires #California pic.twitter.com/RI1DNm4SMK

— John Kassell (@JPKassell) November 10, 2018

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A tragic scenario out there will continue without much hope for any long term relief for weeks without big storms to help the cause out there.

These abandoned and burned out cars shows you what a panic it must have been for residents trying to escape the Camp Fire. Unreal scenes in Paradise, CA, this morning. #CampFire pic.twitter.com/AhBuWzS0Tx

— Nick Valencia (@CNNValencia) November 9, 2018

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This video of a family driving thru the California #CampFire is intense! pic.twitter.com/SBjfoaCjhu

— deray (@deray) November 10, 2018

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OK that’s it for today…I’ll leave you with this amazing picture from the @PeopleOfCowtown…always out taking great pictures…and fitting for Veterans Day on Sunday too. It’s of the WW1 Memorial lit up with Poppy flowers…

Joe

    from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports https://fox4kc.com/2018/11/10/joes-weather-blog-another-snow-comes-our-way-sat-11-10/

from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2018/11/10/joes-weather-blog-another-snow-comes-our-way-sat-11-10/

[kansascityhappenings]

Joe’s Weather Blog: A return back to typical summer heat and humidity (TUE-8/7)

Good morning…some areas did very well with the rain…others didn’t. This was expected and emphasized for days on the blog and on the air. Rain tallies are averaging from about a 1/10″ to roughly 1/2″ for many. There are some parts of the Metro that saw over 1″ of rain..but the jackpot winners were northern MO (for a change) will amounts of 2-4″ towards the 36 highway corridor.

The rain is winding down on the KS side as I type this…

Forecast:

Today: Mainly cloudy with some thinner spots in the clouds this afternoon. There may be a few isolated showers/storms again later this afternoon. Highs today 80-85°

Tonight: Clearing out with some fog possible towards daybreak. Lows in the 60s

Wednesday and Thursday: Partly cloudy, seasonable and humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Discussion:

Overall pleased with my forecast of this rain from several days out. IF you got better rains…excellent. N MO did the best (by far) on this event..and that doesn’t happen often. Here is a look at the doppler estimate of rain totals in the region (through 9AM or so)

Let’s start with the KC Metro area…

Now move to the region as a whole…

Notice the scale on the lest hand side…also in the image above…note the heavier totals across northern MO.

Around the heart of KC…here are some totals from both sides of the state line via CoCoRaHS through 7AM

and on the KS side…

Many areas of NE KS and N MO did well from this…more reports…

Onwards…

Not much weather wise for about a week or so…there may be some isolated showers/storms later Friday…

Typical heat and humidity is expected for the next 7+ days as a long stretch of near average highs and lows is expected.

I wanted to show you a few things this morning…with the fires out in the western part of the country still garnering, with good reason, a lot of the headlines. The size of of the fires, and one in particular, the Mendocino Complex fire(s) is what I wanted to bring to your attention.

Last night it became the largest wildfire in California history. Over 285,000 acres burned and it’s only about 30% contained

Mendocino fire, the biggest ever in California, is still growing https://t.co/sIX4Fjb7fO via @usatoday

— USA TODAY Weather (@usatodayweather) August 7, 2018

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This fire “complex” is actually 2 fires combined in a sense.

#RiverFire #MendocinoComplex [update] off Old River Road, near Mile Marker Post 7.9, Hopland (Mendocino/Lake/Colusa Counties) is now 48,920 acres and 78% contained. Evacuations and road closures in place. Unified Command: @CALFIRE_MEU and @MendocinoNF https://t.co/BrnZGdojZf pic.twitter.com/CiDTWWc3nK

— CAL FIRE (@CAL_FIRE) August 7, 2018

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#RanchFire #MendocinoComplex [update] off Highway 20 near Potter Valley, northeast of Ukiah (Mendocino/Lake/Colusa Counties) is now 241,772 acres and 20% contained. Evacuations and road closures in place. Unified Command: @CALFIRE_MEU and @MendocinoNF https://t.co/uhlH8hb9e4 pic.twitter.com/J17CMk8ItI

— CAL FIRE (@CAL_FIRE) August 7, 2018

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The River and Ranch fires. As of this morning…now burning through over 290,000 acres.

That got me thinking and calculating the size and magnitude of the huge acreage. This is what I came up with.

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fjoe.lauria.10%2Fposts%2F2007820685916854&width=500

Perhaps now you get the idea of the scope involved and unlike our relatively “flat” terrain…out there it’s anything BUT flat. It’s so much hotter as well and windier at times. It’s no wonder why so many firefighters are needed and why it takes so long to fight this disasters.

Fire is actually an important part of a forest ecosystem. It clears out the dead/dying undergrowth and thins out the forests. These have been happened for eons…usually caused by dry lightning from thunderstorms…when it doesn’t rain, but lightning still occurs. One of the many issues though is the moisture pattern that occurs out there…the very wet times…punctuated with VERY dry times. The wet times promote all sorts of growth…then it turns bone dry for a few years…that growth dies and turns into fuel for these fires. The fires then create their own “weather”…heat is generated in enormous amounts…and rises…air at the surface rushes in to replace the rising air…and extreme winds are generated. This helps, in addition to the mountains and the mountain passes funneling the wind, fast moving fires that can’t be easily contained.

Here's a rundown of the states with the most year-to-date fires and acres burned. TX and CA have had the most fires, but NV has burned more than 883,000 acres. Source: NICC at NIFC #PL5 pic.twitter.com/PJFkdnovvd

— NIFC (@NIFCfire) August 6, 2018

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Sadly, unless it gets very wet out there…this will continue for months to come. Over the next 10 days or so…it won’t be good out there for moisture.

Next up is a picture that has been running around social media that is being attribute to the fires out west…but in reality has nothing to do with fires…or the location of said fires.

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fjoe.lauria.10%2Fposts%2F2007095332656056&width=500

That’s it for today…no blog tomorrow as I want to take a day off from blogging but my day off will be spent continuing my research into the usage of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and the thought that many no longer really pay attention to them because of the shear number that are issued. I’m exploring IF there is a better way to communicate this information and will be presenting at the National Weather Association annual meeting later this month. I have about 13 minutes to do a 45 minute talk that I’ve done off/on to various groups in the KC region over the past couple of years.

It’s a passion project I guess.

Our feature photo comes from Elizabeth Tuttle…taken yesterday morning.

Joe

    from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports https://fox4kc.com/2018/08/07/joes-weather-blog-a-return-back-to-typical-summer-heat-and-humidity-tue-8-7/

from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2018/08/07/joes-weather-blog-a-return-back-to-typical-summer-heat-and-humidity-tue-8-7/

[kansascityhappenings]

Joe’s Weather Blog: About that firenado video from California (SAT-8/4)

Good morning…clouds in the region today should keep a lid on the potential highs this afternoon. Yesterday Downtown KC hit 97° while KCI hit 93°. Today I think temperatures won’t attain those somewhat lofty levels. Sunday however is a different story as the clouds will be gone and with the winds stirring the air up the temperatures should pop well into the 90s once again. Rain is also something that’s needed for many parts of the region…and I’m somewhat hopeful that some can move in in a few more days.

Forecast:

Today: Mixed clouds and sunshine…hot but not overly humid with highs near 90°

Tonight: Clearing out and pleasant after sunset with lows close to 70°

Sunday: Mostly sunny and hotter with highs in the mid 90s..some hotter. Dew points not terrible so the heat index should mostly be under 100°

Monday: Partly cloudy with a chance of some rain towards Monday night or Tuesday morning. 90s again but also more humid so the heat index will be a bit higher.

Discussion:

I’ll get to our weather later in the blog…but I wanted to write about something that has caught my attention. You’e heard about the devastating fires out west. Today may be a bad day IF something gets started because of the tinder dry conditions and the strong winds across parts of the west. Humidity levels will be 10-20% or so…temperatures will be in the 90s for many out there…and the winds (almost the most critical aspect of this) will be gusting to near 30 MPH…again IF something gets going (arson…dry thunderstorms with lighting…accidental starts)…it may spread quickly. Some of the mountain regions may gust to 60 MPH.

Fire Weather Watches are in effect for many areas out west.

There are already lots of fires out there…some rather small…some much larger. Some of being fought…others aren’t because of terrain and/or safety concerns. These fires are getting lots of media attention…it’s important to remember that these fires have been occurring for decades…and sometimes as mankind builds in places that have lots of trees and are prone to drought conditions…and have a lot of available fuel…bad things happen. To put this year in perspective compared to last year…

2018: From January 1 to August 2, 2018, there were 38,079 wildfires, compared to 39,227 wildfires in the same period in 2017, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. About 4.9 million acres were burned in the 2018 period, compared with 5.6 million in 2017.

The Carr fire, which broke out on July 23 in Northern California, is the 7th most destructive fire in the state’s history and is still not contained as of August 2. Six fatalities are attributed to the fire and over a thousand structures have been destroyed.

(From the Insurance Information Institute)

So we’re about 1200 fires away from matching last year…this with 4 months of the year to go. We’re about 1 million acres away from burning more land than last year…

Here is how this year matches the last decade or so…

Year-to-date statistics

2018 (1/1/18 – 8/3/18) Fires: 38,333 Acres: 4,916,686 2017 (1/1/17 – 8/3/17) Fires: 39,635 Acres: 5,730,848 2016 (1/1/16 – 8/3/16) Fires: 34,898 Acres: 3,600,570 2015 (1/1/15 – 8/3/15) Fires: 36,754 Acres: 5,929,374 2014 (1/1/14 – 8/3/14) Fires: 34,151 Acres: 1,702,600 2013 (1/1/13 – 8/3/13) Fires: 28,398 Acres: 2,417,275 2012 (1/1/12 – 8/3/12) Fires: 38,255 Acres: 4,346,788 2011 (1/1/11 – 8/3/11) Fires: 46,622 Acres: 6,117,568 2010 (1/1/10 – 8/3/10) Fires: 37,933 Acres: 2,010,232 2009 (1/1/09 – 8/3/09) Fires: 57,649 Acres: 3,997,202 2008 (1/1/08 – 8/3/08) Fires: 56,539 Acres: 3,716,066

10-year average Year-to-Date 2008-2017 Fires: 40,892 Acres: 3,886,573

(data above via the National Interagency Fire Center)

Interesting comparisons. This fire season (so far) is not as worse as in 2017…also 2011 was considerably worse than this year. So yes it’s bad…but it’s been worse.

You can see the smoke pouring into the atmosphere yesterday from northern CA.

Weeks of fires out there have sent smoke through the Plains thanks to the jet stream winds…so we actually have been having some of that smoke in our atmosphere.

More stunning satellite imagery of California #wildfires. Red Flag weather conditions, w/strong winds & low humidity, have (again) led to explosive development on #CarrFire, #RanchFire, and #FergusonFire today–all of which jumped containment lines in recent hours. #CAwx #CAfire pic.twitter.com/7bdJgZdXau

— Dr. Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) August 4, 2018

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Things really hit the media spotlight about 10 days ago with the devastating fires around the Redding, CA area (the Carr Fire) and how it’s expanded over the days…

This is how fast the Carr Fire is spreading in Northern California https://t.co/eEQ18UewUe pic.twitter.com/mubJmMF6JF

— CNN (@CNN) August 3, 2018

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The Carr Fire has destroyed nearly 1,000 homes, including that of Sandy Wolf in Keswick, who's lived there for 70 years. pic.twitter.com/NEYoVEf7Ex

— USA TODAY Video (@usatodayvideo) August 4, 2018

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Almost 1300 homes have been damaged or destroyed (mostly destroyed). Here is the latest from yesterday via CAL FIRE

#CarrFire [update] northwest of Anderson (Shasta County) is now 133,924 acres and 39% contained. Evacuations and road closures in place. Unified Command: CAL FIRE Shasta-Trinity Unit, Redding City Fire and Whiskeytown National Park. https://t.co/QmhauhZj9m pic.twitter.com/oLVVl0BT26

— CAL FIRE (@CAL_FIRE) August 4, 2018

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The Carr fire isn’t even the biggest one out there…the Mendicino fire is bigger at near 160,000 acres burned so far and only 30% containment.

#RanchFire #MendocinoComplex [update] off Hwy 20 near Potter Valley, NE of Ukiah (Mendocino Co) is now 115,250 acres and 28% contained. Evacuations and road closures in place. Unified Command: CAL FIRE Mendocino Unit and USFS Mendocino National Forest. https://t.co/uhlH8hb9e4 pic.twitter.com/RitDPIfJrq

— CAL FIRE (@CAL_FIRE) August 4, 2018

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I wanted to bring this all up because you may have seen this video…which is both scary, and to me at least, fascinating because of how the firenado behaved and how strong it got.

Listen to the sounds from the video.

Here is another view…

Upon researching this firenado…and utilizing damage indicators and doppler radar…they discovered that the winds in that firenado may have been as strong oas 140 MPH+! This would be the equivalent to an EF3 tornado…

The NWS & @CAL_FIRE Serious Accident Review Team (SART) are conducting a storm damage survey regarding the large fire whirl that occurred Thursday evening in Redding. Preliminary indicators placed max wind speeds achieved by the fire whirl in excess of 143 mph. #cawx #CarrFire pic.twitter.com/3iRX90lhLJ

— NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) August 2, 2018

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#CarrFire vortex may have been strongest tornado-like feature in California history: "Trees appeared to be levitating…branches & sheet-metal roofs seemed to orbit the column…uprooted objects launched into the air ignited mid-flight." #CAwx #CAfirehttps://t.co/jFdhHryT7J pic.twitter.com/7rg26tHm3Y

— Dr. Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) August 3, 2018

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Fascinating stuff from a research standpoint…

Onwards…

Our next decent chance of anything more than some spotty showers this afternoon is later Monday or Tuesday morning as a weak cold front slips through the area…hopefully we’ll get some rain from this…although I won’t promise widespread rains at this point.

I’ll add in Pleasant Hill radar just in case there are a few scattered showers this afternoon…

The air above us though is pretty dry overall…the morning balloon launch from the NWS out towards Topeka indicates this. Note the large spread between the red temperature line (as you go up in the atmosphere) and the green line (the dew points). The larger the spread the lower the humidity…the drier the air.

There are a couple of layers of somewhat more saturated air…particularly at the 700 mb level…or about 9,500 feet up. I guess there could be a random sprinkle or something out there today but it should amount to all that much.

A final note…Hurricane Hector is churning in the eastern and soon to be central Pacific. Actually it should make a somewhat close pass to Hawaii and the Big Island TUE>WED of next week. Odds heavily favor it passing well south of Hawaii BUT it may churn up the surf on the eastern part of the Island.

The satellite pictures show a well defined hurricane…look between Hawaii and the Baja CA area…see the small eye in the center of the storm?

That’s Hector…not a very large hurricane (size wise) but it does have 120 MPH winds with it right now.

Right now, aside from some increase in the surf…no major impacts are expected on the Hawaiian Islands. The surf though could get pretty rough…depending on how far north the track ends up being…one of our models deals with surf forecasting.

That’s 12-20 foot waves on the east and south beaches of the Big Island. The map above is valid for Wednesday at 7PM our time. It tracks the eye towards about 17 north in latitude…a bit farther south and perhaps the surf won’t be as bad.

OK that will do it for today…hope you have a great weekend and I’ll try and update the blog again tomorrow and drill down into the rain chances a bit more.

Our feature photo comes from Elizabeth Tuttle of the pretty sunrise from this morning.

Joe

from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports https://fox4kc.com/2018/08/04/joes-weather-blog-about-that-firenado-video-from-california-sat-8-4/

from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2018/08/04/joes-weather-blog-about-that-firenado-video-from-california-sat-8-4/