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saphirered · 3 years

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Heyy i hope this is ok, I really love your Verin x reader where he goes to see his brother is it ok to ask for a continuous of it like he visits the empire to see his brother but also the reader ???

I'm doing okay, thank you for asking! The dreaded double shifts have returned but I have a moment of freedom now. Anyway, I hope you enjoy! 😘

The sudden disappearance of Essek Thelyss had left quite the ravage in its wake. The Lens; the network of spies of the Dynasty was left in disarray and without a commander, valuable information had been lost and the underground threats of the Empire still posed a risk. The loss of their connection to the Empire and their own spies to keep tabs on the higher ups Essek had provided had disappeared with him leaving little to no information of the inner workings and plotting on the Dwendalian side of the border.

It was the perfect cover story. Verin is by no means as clever and cunning as his brother. He’s the first one to admit so. He’s got his own strength but that doesn’t leave him lacking a skillset similar to his brother’s. Verin knows how to get information. Verin knows how to stick to the shadows. Verin knows what he’s doing. That’s the words of those who spoke in his favour at the Lucid Bastion when he offered the prospects of temporarily providing that bridge until a suitable replacement was found.

Verin had proven to them his loyalty through providing them with answers to the questions they had been asking about the ongoings in Rexxentrum, limited but answers no less which was much better than what they had before. He offered them a remedy against the chaos and they could do nothing other than take it. So Verin got to frequent his resources of this information insisting he’d take care of this personally due to the fragility of them and risks associated; willing to make that sacrifice for his country and not needlessly put lives at risk, especially not after the disgrace his brother had brought them and his family.

Little did they know that his link to the Empire was you; one who sits on the Kings’ Council and you pointing him in the right direction, leaking through formation that was common knowledge between the higher ups of the empire; information that could have been provided by simply striking up a conversation with one of them. It was merely an excuse for Verin to visit his brother… and you as his social visits now included you many a time. He may have grown a bit attached to your company and you’d not risk sending another drow, let alone a Thelyss to stay at already suspected-of-lowkey-treason-every-Thursday Widogast/Thelyss household. No, you’d let Verin stay within the safety of your home escorting him wherever he needs to go to assure none of you get arrested for conspiracy and treason yourselves.

The cover used for the Dynasty was a little easier to maintain than the one for the Empire. Essek’s disguise had of course been in play long before Verin’s arrival. Essek claimed himself to be a former student of Yussa Errenis. That’s how he got to meet Caleb and when Caleb went to settle and teach at the Soltryce Academy he went with, settling down together going on their occasional adventures.

Verin’s had to be tied to that in some way or their frequent interactions would draw attention, be that people suspecting an affair between the two or something deeper. So the story in nature had to stay simplistic as Verin’s frequent traveling had to be explained and excused in a believable manner. He’d be the so-manieth son of a Nicodranian lord who was given little to no attention from his parents and siblings until he proved capable politically making friends and more importantly connections all over. The downside of these connections; they had to be maintained so he’d travel the world to do so but never too bothered to visit his childhood friend; the former apprentice living with professor Widogast.

Now of course you got some encouragement from the king’s council to nurture this relation with the Nicodranian lord’s son and opening up your own home instead of letting the man stay in one of the many lavish taverns was just that extra personal touch they needed to know you’d do so in name of the king of course. They just didn’t know this was all a lie and you’d keep it that way. The four of you and by extension the Nein and their allies aware would do anything to keep it that way even if that meant a certain little blue tiefling blackmailing a Nicodranian lord or two to keep up the facade with the things she had learned and overheard over her years at the Lavish Chateau.

You’d spent your day off with Caleb, Essek and Verin on a double date of sorts wandering the city, going sightseeing and just exploring ending with a dinner at your place. It had been a pleasant day and you and Caleb had taken a few moments away to allow the brothers to go out on their own for a while as you’d usually done. It still felt strange having the both of them in one place and acting civil no less. Essek had expected his next meeting with his brother to end with one of them dead but that dinner with the Nein had proved him different. Verin refuses to tell him what you’d told his brother to convince him to stay his hand exactly but never stalled to playfully remind Essek he had you to thank for his life.

Essek was happy to admit his relationship with his brother had almost gone back to normal. The normal before both of them were left to the responsibilities and expectations of the world and their country. There were still some hindrances and disagreements but they managed to work through them one by one as adults, though you and Caleb might have something different to say about the bickering children at times. They were siblings and even the semblance of normalcy and a healthy relationship between them brought smiles to your faces as both you and Caleb had been there when it came to your own makeshift family.

The night of your ‘double date’ had ended in a lovely dinner at your place after an eventful day. Caleb and Essek had headed home but a few minutes ago and you’d resigned yourself to washing the dirty dishes. Caleb and Essek had offered to stay and help but you’d shooed them and told them not to worry. There’s just something peaceful about the manual labor of such a mundane task letting your mind wander wherever it went.

“You know you could just cast a spell to clean them, or leave them for your help to clean in the morning.” Verin leans against the door frame watching you clean. You had this argument before. Yes you could speak a few words and snap your fingers and done nor would your housemaid complain about doing them in the morning should you leave them. You’d always felt uneasy with live-in housekeeping for some reason. Perhaps it’s the feeling of lack of privacy or maybe your need for independence but Verin blames your upbringing among the common folk where these were simply tasks you did every day.

“I could also cast a spell and make you do it.” You laugh setting another wet plate on the stack of clean ones ready to be dried and flick your wet hand at Verin who gives you a disapproving look seeing the droplets being absorbed by the fabric of his shirt. he knows better than to argue with you on this and instead picks up the dishcloth beginning to dry the stack of washed plates and putting them in the cabinet where you store them.

“You could just leave them for for the servants.” You mimicked his tone best you could with a laugh and now it’s Verin’s turn to dip his finger tips into the water and flick it at you. You gasp. He’d been getting bolder the more at ease he’d become and you got to see the drow more as the real person behind the layers of responsibility and complexity of his life and just let him be him. You’d seen this transcend with Essek before and knew well enough were it lead. If you could provide a similar haven of peace and allow him to be himself you’d do so. It wasn’t even a sacrifice made as you enjoyed Verin’s company. Though, you could do without him never putting your precious books back onto their shelves when not reading them. He blames losing the tome in your extensive collection if he did so.

“And if I’ve learned anything I know you’d dry them yourself. Last I checked you’re not a servant or am I mistaken?” Verin jokes as he stacks the dried bowls carefully.

“And you’d know all about that, wouldn’t you? Tended to by servants cleaning up after you wherever you went?” You grin finishing the last dish and putting it on the stack turning to lean your hips against the counter behind you. You cross your arms with a teasing grin on your face as you look at him. He knows that grin all too well, enough to know what’s coming.

“Need me to lay out your clothes for the morning, m’lord? Should I bring you a midnight snack, m’lord? Do you desire a bath, M’lord? I could wash your hair and style it just the way you like it m’lord. Would you like me to help you get dressed, m’lord?” You put on a light voice and curtsy holding back laughter as Verin picks up the last dishes and puts them in the cabinet. He’s laughing with you, the act you put on quite hilarious to him. He knows you’re over exaggerating and he knows you know. He’s proven himself independent but it doesn’t help he actually knows people who are tended to in such a way.

“Not far off. I’ll applaud your efforts but you’re mixing tasks. Clothes do not leave the wardrobe until the moment before they’re meant to be worn. You wouldn’t want to wake your lord in the middle of the night so if a midnight snack as you say, should be desired, it should be prepared or provided when asked for. If you’re tending to the lord themself you wouldn’t be the one drawing the bath. As for getting dressed, I doubt you’d be able to help me because I recall you saying my enormous ego gets in your way too much already.” Verin speaks with all seriousness until he’s standing in front of you, hands clasped behind his straightened back. You share a look before bursting out in laughter.

As a reward for this moment of joy you pull out a bottle of wine and two glasses pulling him over to the table by the window he’d once climbed through to hide from the guard patrol. You set down the glasses and begin pouring the wine like a properly schooled server. Verin shakes his head as you pull out the chair for him and let him sit with a bow as you take your own chair at the other side. He may have some comments on the proper posture and manners but holds them back for the sake of humour. He knows you know so instead you just enjoy your wine together.

“How was your day?” You ask taking a sip.

“I’d tell you you’d know since you were there.” Verin commented and you kicked at his leg giving him a look. When you kick again he grabs your leg between his squeezing his shins together to trap it between his and gives you a wink as he takes a sip and releases you smugly.

“I enjoyed it. The gardens were lovely and seeing Essek get in the middle of an intense bet, letting loose like he did… I have not seen that side of my brother in a long time. Not but months ago whenever I tried to take him for a fun night out he’d complain and be a stuck up.” Verin speaks and you can imagine this truth of Essek. He had changed a lot ever since getting entangled with the Mighty Nein. For the better; that’s something you and Verin can agree on.

You enjoy the rest of your wine conversing about the rest of your day, Verin’s travels, your daily business and more. It’s something you’d grown so accustomed to. You pour yourself and Verin another glass, splitting the last contents of the bottle between the two of you with a ‘thank you’ from Verin as you give him just a little bit more.

“How long will you be staying this time round?” You ask changing the subject.

“Trying to get rid of me already? I’ve only been here for one night.” Verin sends you one of his usual charming grins and you wink back at him.

“If I wanted to get rid of you I’d simply call for the guards. How many times do you have to keep sneaking through my window? You know I have a front door right?” You know of his nightly endeavours. You know he really does have information to collect from sources you may or may not have hinted at but he could simply use the front door. You don’t mind either way but getting the living daylights scared out of you when you go into the kitchen for a midnight snack or a glass of water still half asleep, you could do without.

“I’ve been granted three weeks.” Verin has to admit, the Bright Queen’s acceptance of his time came as a surprise. He suspects the Dusk Captain might have gotten her in better spirits that morning and he couldn’t be more thankful. The ‘why’ at the end of his question was implied so he awaits your reply.

“I have some business to attend to at noon but the Mighty Nein is meeting up in Nicodranas for a little side adventure.” Oh. Verin does his best to not let his disappointment show. It’s the downside of not being able to send word ahead or know your schedules beforehand. If he’d known he’d planned differently. He doesn’t want to stand in between you and his brother’s friends.

“I will see you off then.” The crestfallenness in his voice is clear for you to hear so when you reach out over the table to clasp your hand over his, his eyes are drawn to you. Your gentle smile confuses him.

“Actually, I was wondering if you’d like to join us. We’ve worked around the sunlight sensitivity before, especially in the Menagerie Coast so if it’s no bother to you, why don’t you join us?” Verin looks at you, thinking you’re kidding or lying but sees none of this. He thinks for a second.

“I wouldn’t want to intrude-“ He begins but you cut him off with another squeeze to his hand and a reassuring look.

“You won’t. You’re one of us now, Verin. You can’t get rid of us anymore.”

“Then I will come along. Thank you, you and your friends, for everything you’ve done for me.” Verin doesn’t really know how to handle this; getting closer to his brother’s friends, especially you that is. He’s never been in a similar position and the sheer genuineness of it is heart melting, even for him. Not even within his own family has he encountered this and he had been a lot closer with his family than his brother in their younger years.

“You’re very welcome.” You’d be off with Verin and the others. Another sea voyage? Perhaps, but like always you’d see where the winds would take you even if that’s by the literal winds, or a name on a map that sounds funny, or when you’ll unavoidably be on the run from some kind of creature chasing you. Let’s hope that dragon turtle stays far away, and if not, you’d have one hell of a time fighting it. With Verin at your sides this time. He’d be in for an adventure. He’d be in for a surprise. He’d be in for an undoubtable amount of chaos. And he’d welcome it all with open arms. Damn his sentimental side. He blames Essek for that one.

#critical role x reader #critrole x reader #mighty nein x reader #verin x reader #verin thelyss x reader #critical role #mighty nein

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shenlongshao · 4 years

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GGStrive Redesign Analysis: Leo Whitefang

Welcome to the continuation of the redesign analysis series! The next character is another one who first debuted in XRD SIGN; Leo Whitefang! This will be another long post and also the last one until Anji Mito’s trailer in 2021. Please enjoy reading! LEO WHITEFANG ------------------------------- There’s been some mixed reactions to Leo’s reveal. Positive comments like “Leo Whitefang is back! GG Strive is saved!” “He’s a hot burly man!” “Dream Daddy!” and etc. came from fans of the character. But other comments from those not too happy with his reveal were like, “NOOOOOOOOOO!!!” XDD Time to examine his previous look.

Every aspect of this character boldly shows his motif is based on a lion, which I always think is awesome. Leo’s design focuses on the unique and cool factor rather than unorthodox. First is his long, blonde hair and beard that looks like a lion’s mane. Actual fur of the same color can be seen on the collar of his trench coat and at the cuffs. His trench coat bares a brownish orange hue, accented with black trim and unfasten belts that exposes his attire. On the sleeves of his coat is a black cross shaped like the Illyrian one, decorated with 6 metal buttons and a yellow one in the center. Metal Illyrian crosses is also at the corners of the coat’s collar, which they connect by twin chains. Six metal buttons is on each part of the collar, adding up to twelve that gives a hint to a rock metal look. His attire is a black, spandex-type body suit with light orange trim baring cross designs in the middle of his chest. Layered on top is a light orange shirt(or vest?) with two straps hanging on the sides. On his hands is simple, fingerless black gloves while his tight pants also has the style of crosses and detail, though slightly different shade of black. Lastly, his ankle-length boots contains tannish brown cuffs with black trim and three metal buttons on each side. The base color is also black with tannish brown trim at the bottom and dark gray plating on the frontal part. Leo’s design brings something different while still fitting in the world of GG. I love the exaggerated mixture of regal and combat style in his look. It’s one of those designs where I could tell what the character is about from just looking at him. I even like design of his weapons, which I notice their shape is like a German cross. I like how the chosen colors compliment each other, especially since it has a vibrant and warm essence to it. Since orange, black, yellow, and silver are his main colors, let’s examine how it relates to his personality. Color Personality of Orange: https://www.empower-yourself-with-color-psychology.com/personality-color-orange.html With orange as your favorite color, you are warm, optimistic, extroverted and often flamboyant. You are friendly, good-natured and a generally agreeable person. You are assertive and determined rather than aggressive - having a personality color orange means you are more light-hearted and less intense than those who love red. You thrive on human social contact and social gatherings, bringing all types together. As a personality color orange, you enjoy partying and socializing and planning all types of social events - orange people are the life of the party, the uninhibited performer! You are often the loud talker in a group. While you are charming and sociable you do tend to be a show-off. You get great satisfaction from helping others and they find you inspiring with your vitality and positive energy. You are tolerant and accepting of others just the way they are. You are full of life, always on the go, determined and competitive, always looking for new challenges - and this can lead to restlessness and impatience with others who do not have this need. Lovers of orange like to take risks in many areas of their life, particularly in the physical areas. They prefer to explore their outer world rather than their inner world. Patience is not one of your virtues and you can be quite forceful and domineering over others when under stress. You may be an unkind practical joker. When operating from a negative perspective, a personality color orange can become aloof, egotistical, and self-centered. Color Personality of Black: https://www.empower-yourself-with-color-psychology.com/personality-color-black.html Prestige and power are important to you. You are independent, strong-willed and determined and like to be in control of yourself and situations. You are methodical in your work, making sure everything is completed as required, down to the last detail. Color Personality of Yellow: https://www.empower-yourself-with-color-psychology.com/color-yellow.html You have a happy disposition and are cheerful and fun to be with. With a personality color yellow, you can be very critical of yourself as well as others - you are a perfectionist. You analyze everything, all the time, and are methodical in your thinking. You are spontaneous - you are able to think quickly on your feet and make instant decisions. You have a modern outlook. New technology doesn't faze you. You communicate well on a mental level with like-minded people, but can become bitter and sharp-tongued if crossed. You are good at networking and getting information out of others. Journalists often resonate with the color yellow. With a personality color yellow, you can be stubborn but dislike pettiness and spitefulness of all kinds. You like to think you are intelligent and well educated, with knowledge about many topics. Color Personality of Silver: https://www.empower-yourself-with-color-psychology.com/personality-color-silver.html You tend to be introspective, often preoccupied with your own world. In your search for meaning and fulfilment, you sometimes isolate yourself from others as you reflect and ponder on the deeper questions of life. If you love silver, you are imaginative and creative, particularly in expressing yourself with the written word. Making speeches, writing poetry, and writing novels are three means of self-expression you may be drawn to, allowing you to satisfy your need to fantasize and reflect. With a personality color silver, you are open to trying new things and exploring any new opportunities that are presented to you. Change does not frighten you, in fact you welcome it. Resourceful and flexible, and open to new possibilities, success often comes easily to those who love the color silver. You will try almost anything once! Immediately introduced as the Second King of Illyria, Leo is heavily involved in worldwide affairs. From typical paperwork duties to investigation events surrounding Bablyon and the Japanese Colony, he takes on his responsibilities without hesitation. Throughout the story of Xrd SIGN and Revelator, he displays leadership qualities and knows it takes way more than just giving people orders. He tries to carefully analyze the situation and decide the best course of action, showing compassion and understanding for not only the troops, but others around him. This aspect is really shown when in Revelator 2, when the showdown with Ariels occurs and freeing Elphelt from Justice’s body. King Daryl shows to be technically logical with his plan to go for the attack, though detached from the internal details. However, Leo considers the entirety of the situation and wanting the safety of his allies(like Sol and Ky). There’s also the aspect of while he is very boastful and has high self-esteem, he’s definitely not a narcissist(a word often misused). He’s able to boldly admit his flaws and even having a hearty laugh about it; grading himself a C-(from Xrd SIGN). With Leo’s development as a person and what he has to deal with in the aftermath of Revelator 2, it was time for him to get a redesign!

The essence from Leo’s previous design is kept, though still quite a departure from it. The first is his hair is dramatically cut and his beard is trimmed, instantly giving him a more mature appearance. The concept of the fur trench coat is apparent, such as the Illyrian crosses on the sleeves, except their color is beige instead of black. However, it’s obviously not the same coat due to the style; it lacks the Illyrian crosses and little chains in front. And how his new coat would be fasten by the silver buttons instead of buckle straps. On the new coat, the buckle straps securely loop from under his arms and the fact the hue is a warm brown instead of orange with black trim. The clothing he wears underneath is also different, starting with a slightly opened, white collar shirt layered with a dark brown and black vest. There’s the detail of little silver buttons evenly spread out and a side zipper. Around his waist is three belts in slightly different shades of brown. On his lower body, Leo wears a fitted, beige-colored pants that slightly curtains over his mustard yellow and dark brown dress shoes. Lastly, the pants also has pockets, accented with brown strap in front. Since Leo’s new main colors includes brown and beige with a hint of white, Let’s see what the additional colors mean for him. Brown Personality: https://colorogy.com/brown-color-meaning.html Brown personality people are strong and dependable. The strength is not only strong in body, but also strong in convictions and emotional strength. If brown is your most favorite color, you have a good understanding of your own capabilities. You have the mental grit to stand up to and face the challenges life throws at you. You are a reliable partner and true to your friends. You are loyal and sincere in your relationships. For you, feeling safe, loved, and appreciated in a relationship is essential. You look after your family and gladly devote time to your home and responsibilities. Material security is paramount to you; you meticulously plan your goals and work hard to achieve them. Your career is an important aspect of your life. You have a vision for your career and you will do what it takes to get there. You do your best to succeed in whatever you set your heart on achieving. You do your best to maintain a good reputation. Being seen in a good light is vital to you. You dread the idea of being thought of as untrustworthy in any way. Beige Personality: https://colorogy.com/beige-color-meaning.html You have the ability to grasp new ideas and concepts quickly. You amass knowledge for wisdom and for knowledge's sake. You are interested in everything that goes on in the world and in your areas of interest. You are much in tune with all that occurs in your immediate environment. The efforts you put in towards achieving all that you want in life are consistent. You don't back down; come what may, when you really want something. White Personality: https://colorogy.com/white-color-meaning.html They have a compassionate outlook and are kind. Their kind words sooth, heal, and calm those they interact with. They may attract people in their lives who depend on them for emotional support, as they are good listeners and are wise beyond their years. They are grounded, balanced and practical. They have a deep understanding of the world they live in. It doesn't take alot to make someone with a white personality type happy. They find joy and contentment in small and simple things life. Watching a beautiful sunrise or sunset can make their day. They are free spirited and carefree. They enjoy their freedom and feel unrestricted by conventions. It’s interesting how brown is one the chosen colors for him. I think storywise, it could relate to Leo’s heighten resolve and determination to whatever comes next. It also hints he’s matured since the last game, though he still has his jolly pride and charm he’s known for(especially from his expressions and animations.)

I like how Leo’s design still contains his unique style, even though it’s seemingly more casual in comparison to his previous look. Due to his haircut, it’s easier to tell which is his hair and which is the fur from his coat(in the previous games, I sometimes think the fur collar was part of his hair, lol). Part of me will miss his long hair, but the new hairdo definitely looks great on him. I’m also kind of getting Attack on Titan vibes from his clothing and suddenly imagine him killing Titans with ease, XD. This is another design done well; time to give it the GG style rating! Rating: S + + + (The Lion King!)

#guilty gear #guilty gear strive #leo whitefang #character analysis #character redesign #I had to look up what dream daddy is lol #it's a crime his zodiac sign isn't a leo!

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theculturedmarxist · 6 years

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March 24 marks 20 years since the US and NATO launched a one-sided war against Yugoslavia, bombing Serbia and its capital Belgrade for 78 straight days. Factories, schools and hospitals were destroyed, along with bridges, roads and the electrical grid in a bid to bomb the Serbian population into submission to US and Western European imperialism’s domination of the Balkans.

The airstrikes killed around 2,500 people and wounded another 12,500 according to Serbian estimates.

One of the US-NATO airstrikes used laser-guided bombs to take out a railway bridge in southern Serbia, killing at least 10 people on a passenger train. Another slaughtered 21 people in a nursing home. And a deliberate strike on the TV broadcaster RTS in Belgrade took the lives of 16 civilian workers.

In one of the most provocative acts of the war, the US carried out a strike on the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, killing three people. Washington claimed that the bombing was an “accident,” but Beijing and the Chinese population rightly saw it as an act of aggression that foreshadowed an escalating US military buildup against China.

“Operation Noble Anvil”, as the bombing campaign was dubbed, was launched without any authorization from the United Nations after Serbia’s President Slobodan Milosevic refused to accept the so-called Rambouillet Agreement, which in reality was a US-NATO ultimatum that demanded Belgrade allow NATO troops to occupy the province of Kosovo and be granted free rein over all of Yugoslavia. Even the veteran imperialist war criminal Henry Kissinger acknowledged that the so-called agreement “was a provocation, an excuse to start bombing.”

The war constituted the final chapter in the imperialist dismemberment of Yugoslavia, a country that had existed since 1918. Having pulled the rug out from under the Yugoslav economy, the major imperialist powers encouraged the growth of ethnic nationalism—spearheaded by ex-Yugoslav Stalinist bureaucrats turned communalist capitalist politicians—warming their hands over the fire as they pushed Serbs, Muslims and Croats to slaughter one another, and using Yugoslavia as a testing ground for military intervention and a new generation of so-called precision-guided munitions.

The essential precursor of the war was the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the hands of the Moscow Stalinist bureaucracy. During the Cold War, Washington and its NATO allies had supported the unity of Yugoslavia as a counterweight to the influence of the USSR in the lands to its south. But after the Stalinist bureaucracy’s drive for capitalist restoration culminated in the breakup of the Soviet Union, the imperialist powers launched a reckless and ultimately catastrophic scramble for the Balkans.

Germany began by recognizing the independence of the Yugoslav republics of Slovenia and Croatia, flexing its new-found muscles as an imperialist power in Europe following its 1990 re-unification. While Washington first opposed the move, it subsequently threw itself into the carve-up by recognizing Bosnia-Herzegovina as an independent “nation” meriting its own state. This set the stage for a bloody conflict between the territory’s three constituent populations –Muslims, Serbs and Croats–and ultimately imperialist intervention.

Underlying the drive to war over Kosovo was the imperialist imperative of bringing Serbia, the strongest power in the region, to heel in order to solidify US-NATO hegemony.

The war was launched by the Democratic administration of President Bill Clinton under the thoroughly discredited and hypocritical banner of “humanitarian intervention” and the claim that the US and its allies were intervening to stop a massacre of Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian population at the hands of Serbian security forces.

Washington and its European imperialist allies, backed by a thoroughly pliant capitalist media, cast Serbian leader Milosevic as a new “Hitler” and the Serbian people as a whole as “Nazis,” obscenely comparing the repression in Kosovo to the Holocaust.

Claims that 100,000 ethnic Albanians had been slaughtered that were floated in advance of the US-NATO war were debunked in its aftermath. The real death toll in Kosovo before US and NATO bombs began to fall was revealed after the war to have been closer to 2,000, with the majority of the killings committed by the armed separatist group, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA)

The KLA, previously classified by Washington as a terrorist organization, was elevated in the run-up to the war as the sole legitimate representative of Kosovo’s population. Its extensive ties to organized crime throughout Europe as well as to Al Qaeda were swept under the rug as the CIA poured money and arms into the group, which carried out terrorist bombings and ethnic killings against the Serbian population. The KLA, working in close collaboration with its US sponsors, sought to create as much violence and death as possible in order to pave the way to Western intervention.

Twenty years later, the former chief of the KLA, Hashim Thaçi–proclaimed in Washington as “the George Washington of Kosovo”–has headed a succession of governments, even as control of the landlocked mini-state’s economy remains in the hands of European Union officials and its territory is still occupied by 4,000 NATO troops, including 600 US soldiers.

Thaçi has been exposed in numerous investigations as the head of a criminal organization involved in drug trafficking and prostitution as well as in the appalling trafficking in human organs “harvested” from captured Serbs. Washington and the EU have repeatedly intervened to prevent him from being prosecuted for war crimes and other criminal activity.

The “humanitarian” intervention to halt “ethnic cleansing” has resulted in massive ethnic cleansing, including the driving out of two-thirds of the 120,000 Roma and Ashkali living in Kosovo as well as many thousands of ethnic Serbs.

Despite Kosovo being the largest per capita recipient of foreign aid on the planet, the landlocked mini-state remains the poorest territory in Europe, with an official unemployment rate of 30 percent (55 percent for youth) and wages averaging just $410 a month. With all of its wealth and military power, US and German imperialism have managed to create only a failed state and a government controlled by a Mafia.

None of the wounds inflicted upon the former state of Yugoslavia by imperialist intervention have healed. The Balkans remain a powder keg that can be set off at any moment, igniting–as they did in the 20th century—a wider war that can bring in the major powers.

Among the most politically significant features of the 1999 Kosovo war was the unabashed and enthusiastic support lent to the US-NATO bombing of Serbia by former opponents of the American intervention in Vietnam and even self-proclaimed socialists in both Europe and America. This emerging pseudo left, whose social base was among privileged layers of the middle class, would go on to provide crucial political support to imperialism in similar bloody “humanitarian” regime change operations that have devastated both Libya and Syria.

The World Socialist Web Site and the International Committee of the Fourth International opposed this reactionary outlook from the start, denouncing the onslaught against Yugoslavia as an imperialist war waged to assert US hegemony over the Balkans as part of a re-division of the territories of Eastern Europe and Central Asia left in a political vacuum following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

In June of 1999, after the relentless bombing of Serbia forced Belgrade to withdraw security forces from Kosovo and open the way to US-NATO occupation, the World Socialist Web Site warned in an statement by David North, the chairperson of the WSWS and the Socialist Equality Party (US) titled “After the Slaughter: Political Lessons of the Balkan War,” “The bombing of Yugoslavia has exposed the real relations that exist between imperialism and small nations.”

The statement continued, “The great indictments of imperialism written in the first years of the twentieth century—those of Hobson, Lenin, Luxemburg and Hilferding—read like contemporary documents. Economically, small nations are at the mercy of the lending agencies and financial institutions of the major imperialist powers. In the realm of politics, any attempt to assert their independent interests brings with it the threat of devastating military retaliation. With increasing frequency, small states are being stripped of their national sovereignty, compelled to accept foreign military occupation, and submit to forms of rule that are, when all is said and done, of an essentially colonialist character.”

It went on to warn that the “cult of precision-guided munitions” promoted on the basis of the United States’ casualty-free Kosovo war, ignored the more basic tendencies of economic development. “Neither this advantage [in the arms industry] nor the products of this industry can guarantee world domination,” it said. “Despite the sophistication of its weaponry, the financial-industrial foundation of the United States’ preeminent role in the affairs of world capitalism is far less substantial than it was 50 years ago.”

Nearly two decades later, this prognosis has proven correct. For more than a quarter century, the US ruling elite has sought to sustain its global dominance through the uninterrupted and reckless use of military power. This has resulted in a string of failures from Afghanistan to Iraq, Libya and Syria–as well as Kosovo—that have served only to exacerbate the crisis of the global system, while exposing the limitations of American military power.

The US-NATO war in Kosovo has been followed by NATO’s relentless expansion eastward, bringing US troops to the very border of Russia. While still playing the “humanitarian” card on occasion, Washington has jettisoned the “war on terror” as the central rationale for global US militarism, adopting a strategy of “great power” conflict, openly preparing for war against nuclear-armed Russia and China, as well as potential challenges from its erstwhile allies in Europe and Asia.

The destructive policies pursued by US imperialism are giving rise to an immense growth of social tensions and class struggle around the world, including in Kosovo, which has seen a wave of strikes against the abysmal conditions facing the working class, as well as in the United States itself. This rising movement of the international working class provides the only viable answer to the growing threat of multiple military conflicts across the globe igniting a new world war. The decisive lesson of the Kosovo war and what has followed is the necessity of building an international, socialist antiwar movement based upon the working class.

Bill Van Auken

#imperialism #us history #european history #balkans #yugoslavia #yugoslav wars #kosovo #bill clinton

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khalilhumam · 4 years

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The nightmare in Syria continues amid new coronavirus fears

New Post has been published on http://khalilhumam.com/the-nightmare-in-syria-continues-amid-new-coronavirus-fears/

The nightmare in Syria continues amid new coronavirus fears

‘We don’t have the appropriate place to quarantine the patients’

Atmeh refugee camp in Aleppo, Syria. Photo by IHH Humanitarian Relief Foundation via CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

Since March 2011, the Syrian war has claimed over 400,000 lives and displaced an estimated 6.5 million people. This ongoing conflict has turned into one of the worst humanitarian crises in recent history. The coronavirus only adds a new layer of potential threat to thousands of displaced Syrians.

Between February 1 to March 31, 2020, 312 civilians were killed in Syria as a result of airstrikes, improvised explosive devise (IED) explosions, and targeted killings carried out by all warring parties, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCR). Warring parties include Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime and its allies from Russia and Iran, fighting against various rebel groups for power and control.

A record number of internally displaced persons (IDP) are gathering in the northwestern province of Idlib, — the last important rebel-held city in the northwest, and a potential outpost to reach Turkey. The area— with nearly 4.5 million displaced persons — remains under the control of the militant group Tahrir al-Sham.

This gathering of IDPs has sparked international concern that this community — living under the harshest conditions — could be deeply affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. An agreement carried out on March 6 between Russia and Turkey aims to limit aerial bombings on Idlib, in northwestern Syria, but the humanitarian situation remains alarming. No airstrikes have been reported since the March 6 ceasefire, but regime forces have pursued intermittent shelling. Indiscriminate attacks against civilians — while prohibited under international law — continue nonetheless, including large-scale terrorist attacks. Multiple strikes on kindergartens and schools occurred in Idlib in February, during which at least 7 teachers and 10 children were killed, according to the United Nations. On February 10, one child was killed and two injured in an airstrike on a camp in Idlib. Meanwhile, the spread of the coronavirus in an already strained region has begun to loom as a potential threat. As of May 3, 45 COVID-19 cases have been reported in Syria, mainly in government-controlled provinces. However, no cases have so far been reported in Idlib.

A dire humanitarian situation

According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), since last December — when hostilities intensified with repetitive airstrikes from Russia and the Syrian government in Idlib, — 846,000 people have been displaced and remain in displacement, and half were displaced to Idlib just in the month of February 2020. Children make up 60 percent of those displaced. The fighting in Idlib province displaced a huge number of civilians under horrendous conditions. Fleeing on foot or by truck in very cold weather, babies and young children reportedly died on a daily basis. Once they arrived in Idlib, some people only managed to find refuge in open spaces under trees or on the street. Food prices are soaring and food access remains difficult. The malnutrition rates among pregnant and breastfeeding women are devastating: 1 in 5 women is currently acutely malnourished compared to 1 in 20 in 2019. An increased stunting rate among children under five in Idlib has also been reported. The coronavirus and a lack of resources could worsen this situation and limit humanitarian access. Experts expect the number of people with the need for humanitarian aid to double to 265 million by the end of the year, including in conflict zones like Idlib. Abdulrahman Muhajir, an IDP from Homs, said:

Now, we are suffering from expensive prices, we are suffering from this epidemic, and we are suffering from a thousand things and no one is helping you with anything,

The COVID-19 crisis

To prevent potential contagion in Idlib, one laboratory initiated testing procedures. The World Health Organization has also procured additional ventilators. Health infrastructure and trained personnel are generally missing in warring areas. Between 2011 and 2019, over 900 medical personnel were killed in Syria while many others fled. Still, medical professionals in Idlib are doing what they can to prepare for potential COVID-19 cases in area hospitals:

Hospital in #Idlib being sanitized by the @SyriaCivilDef to prevent the spread of #COVID19 (left) versus ‘hospital’ in an area terrorized by #Assad, who has been receiving billions of #UN donor money for years. pic.twitter.com/nEpXFzrF5u — Simona Jeger (@simonajeger) April 5, 2020

IDP camps are a critical concern for potential contagion. After a first COVID-19 death was reported in northeastern Syria, Kurdish authorities in control of the area set up a dedicated hospital in the area and authorities in Idlib expect to do the same. In Rukban, a refugee camp located near the Jordanian border, the spread of the coronavirus could spell greater disaster, reported one midwife in the camp:

We don’t have the right medicine or the appropriate place to quarantine the patients, There is nothing we could offer to them.

The camp has organized an awareness campaign to limit the spread of the coronavirus and UN authorities are working to implement testing supplies, but mainly in government-controlled areas, limiting the possibility of access for IDPs. The last time a humanitarian aid convoy reached the camp was in May 2019. Under such dire living conditions, dozens of children died from hypothermia in 2019. Humanitarian assistance has not stepped up and neither Jordan government or the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, are expected to provide assistance. In recent weeks, a planned humanitarian mission by the UN and Syrian Arab Red Crescent was suspended due to a disagreement.

What now?

James Jeffrey, the United States ambassador to Syria, said an agreement made between Russia and Turkey offers the chance for talks in Idlib. But according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Syrian regime is currently using the media focus caused by COVID-19 pandemic to ramp up the violence and violate the March 6 ceasefire without attention. A recent exchange of fire in Idlib has been reported between Syrian and Turkish forces. Despite the current constraints, the United Nations Office for the Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) managed to deliver more aid to Idlib in March than it did at any time since 2014, citing reduced military activity in the area. In January 2020, Resolution 2504 voted by the UN Security Council extended the “authorization of cross border aid delivery” to Syria until July 10. António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, recently reminded the Syrian government that since 2012, under OHCR resolutions S-18/1 and 19/22, it should allow for a UN field presence to protect human rights. Yet, after 9 years, this has still not been implemented. The window of opportunities for preventing a humanitarian and COVID-19 crisis among Syrian IDPs is now but is certain to close very soon, thus the international community should make all efforts to protect the civilians who are directly affected and who are dying because of the conflict.

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d33-alex · 6 years

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End of nations: Is there an alternative to countries?

THE FUTURE Nation states cause some of our biggest problems, from civil war to climate inaction. Science suggests there are better ways to run a planet

Imagine there’s no countries… ...it isn't hard to do, sang John Lennon. Actually, it is, argues Debora MacKenzie. Is there an alternative?

Try, for a moment, to envisage a world without countries. Imagine a map not divided into neat, coloured patches, each with clear borders, governments, laws. Try to describe anything our society does – trade, travel, science, sport, maintaining peace and security – without mentioning countries. Try to describe yourself: you have a right to at least one nationality, and the right to change it, but not the right to have none.

Those coloured patches on the map may be democracies, dictatorships or too chaotic to be either, but virtually all claim to be one thing: a nation state, the sovereign territory of a "people" or nation who are entitled to self-determination within a self-governing state. So says the United Nations, which now numbers 193 of them.

And more and more peoples want their own state, from Scots voting for independence to jihadis declaring a new state in the Middle East. Many of the big news stories of the day, from conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine to rows over immigration and membership of the European Union, are linked to nation states in some way.

Even as our economies globalise, nation states remain the planet's premier political institution. Large votes for nationalist parties in the 2014 EU elections prove nationalism remains alive – even as the EU tries to transcend it.

Yet there is a growing feeling among economists, political scientists and even national governments that the nation state is not necessarily the best scale on which to run our affairs. We must manage vital matters like food supply and climate on a global scale, yet national agendas repeatedly trump the global good. At a smaller scale, city and regional administrations often seem to serve people better than national governments.

How, then, should we organise ourselves? Is the nation state a natural, inevitable institution? Or is it a dangerous anachronism in a globalised world?

https://youtu.be/hvJdc7hJTR0 [Shifting sands: National borders can feel permanent and immutable – until you look at how they have changed over the past two centuries, especially in Europe, the cradle of the modern nation state.]

These are not normally scientific questions – but that is changing. Complexity theorists, social scientists and historians are addressing them using new techniques, and the answers are not always what you might expect. Far from timeless, the nation state is a recent phenomenon. And as complexity keeps rising, it is already mutating into novel political structures. Get set for neo-medievalism.

Before the late 18th century there were no real nation states, says John Breuilly of the London School of Economics. If you travelled across Europe, no one asked for your passport at borders; neither passports nor borders as we know them existed. People had ethnic and cultural identities, but these didn't really define the political entity they lived in.

That goes back to the anthropology, and psychology, of humanity's earliest politics. We started as wandering, extended families, then formed larger bands of hunter-gatherers, and then, around 10,000 years ago, settled in farming villages. Such alliances had adaptive advantages, as people cooperated to feed and defend themselves.

War and peace

But they also had limits. Robin Dunbar at the University of Oxford has shown that one individual can keep track of social interactions linking no more than around 150 people. Evidence for that includes studies of villages and army units through history, and the average tally of Facebook friends.

But there was one important reason to have more friends than that: war. "In small-scale societies, between 10 and 60 per cent of male deaths are attributable to warfare," says Peter Turchin at the University of Connecticut. More allies meant a higher chance of survival.

Turchin has found that ancient Eurasian empires grew largest where fighting was fiercest, suggesting war was a major factor in political enlargement. Archaeologist Ian Morris at Stanford University in California reasons that as populations grew, people could no longer find empty lands where they could escape foes (see " War, what is it good for? Just look around you"). The losers of battles were simply absorbed into the enemy's domain – so domains grew bigger.

How did they get past Dunbar's number? Humanity's universal answer was the invention of hierarchy. Several villages allied themselves under a chief; several chiefdoms banded together under a higher chief. To grow, these alliances added more villages, and if necessary more layers of hierarchy.

Hierarchies meant leaders could coordinate large groups without anyone having to keep personal track of more than 150 people. In addition to their immediate circle, an individual interacted with one person from a higher level in the hierarchy, and typically eight people from lower levels, says Turchin.

These alliances continued to enlarge and increase in complexity in order to perform more kinds of collective actions, says Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute in Massachusetts. For a society to survive, its collective behaviour must be as complex as the challenges it faces – including competition from neighbours.

Emotional attachment to a nation state is a recent invention.

If one group adopted a hierarchical society, its competitors also had to. Hierarchies spread and social complexity grew. Larger hierarchies not only won more wars but also fed more people through economies of scale, which enabled technical and social innovations such as irrigation, food storage, record-keeping and a unifying religion. Cities, kingdoms and empires followed.

But these were not nation states. A conquered city or region could be subsumed into an empire regardless of its inhabitants' "national" identity. "The view of the state as a necessary framework for politics, as old as civilisation itself, does not stand up to scrutiny," says historian Andreas Osiander of the Humboldt University of Berlin.

One key point is that agrarian societies required little actual governing. Nine people in 10 were peasants who had to farm or starve, so were largely self-organising. Government intervened to take its cut, enforce basic criminal law and keep the peace within its undisputed territories. Otherwise its main role was to fight to keep those territories, or acquire more.

Even quite late on, rulers spent little time governing, says Osiander. In the 17th century Louis XIV of France had half a million troops fighting foreign wars but only 2000 keeping order at home. In the 18th century, the Dutch and Swiss needed no central government at all. Many eastern European immigrants arriving in the US in the 19th century could say what village they came from, but not what country: it didn't matter to them.

Before the modern era, says Breuilly, people defined themselves "vertically" by who their rulers were. There was little horizontal interaction between peasants beyond local markets. Whoever else the king ruled over, and whether those people were anything like oneself, was largely irrelevant.

Such systems are very different from today's states, which have well-defined boundaries filled with citizens. In a system of vertical loyalties, says Breuilly, power peaks where the overlord lives and peters out in frontier territories that shade into neighbouring regions. Ancient empires are coloured on modern maps as if they had firm borders, but they didn't. Moreover, people and territories often came under different jurisdictions for different purposes.

Simple societies

Such loose control, says Bar-Yam, meant pre-modern political units were only capable of scaling up a few simple actions such as growing food, fighting battles, collecting tribute and keeping order. Some, like the Roman Empire, did this on a very large scale. But complexity – the different actions society could collectively perform – was relatively low.

Complexity was limited by the energy a society could harness. For most of history that essentially meant human and animal labour. In the late Middle Ages, Europe harnessed more, especially water power. This boosted social complexity – trade increased, for example– requiring more government. A decentralised feudal system gave way to centralised monarchies with more power.

But these were still not nation states. Monarchies were defined by who ruled them, and rulers were defined by mutual recognition – or its converse, near-constant warfare. In Europe, however, as trade grew, monarchs discovered they could get more power from wealth than war.

In 1648, Europe's Peace of Westphalia ended centuries of war by declaring existing kingdoms, empires and other polities "sovereign": none was to interfere in the internal affairs of others. This was a step towards modern states, but these sovereign entities were still not defined by their peoples' national identities. International law is said to date from the Westphalia treaty, yet the word "international" was not coined until 132 years later.

By then Europe had hit the tipping point of the industrial revolution. Harnessing vastly more energy from coal meant that complex behaviours performed by individuals, such as weaving, could be amplified, says Bar-Yam, producing much more complex collective behaviours.

This demanded a different kind of government. In 1776 and 1789, revolutions in the US and France created the first nation states, defined by the national identity of their citizens rather than the bloodlines of their rulers. According to one landmark history of the period, says Breuilly, "in 1800 almost nobody in France thought of themselves as French. By 1900 they all did." For various reasons, people in England had an earlier sense of "Englishness", he says, but it was not expressed as a nationalist ideology.

By 1918, with the dismemberment of Europe's last multinational empires such as the Habsburgs in the first world war, European state boundaries had been redrawn largely along cultural and linguistic lines. In Europe at least, the nation state was the new norm.

Part of the reason was a pragmatic adaptation of the scale of political control required to run an industrial economy. Unlike farming, industry needs steel, coal and other resources which are not uniformly distributed, so many micro-states were no longer viable. Meanwhile, empires became unwieldy as they industrialised and needed more actual governing. So in 19th-century Europe, micro-states fused and empires split.

These new nation states were justified not merely as economically efficient, but as the fulfilment of their inhabitants' national destiny. A succession of historians has nonetheless concluded that it was the states that defined their respective nations, and not the other way around.

France, for example, was not the natural expression of a pre-existing French nation. At the revolution in 1789, half its residents did not speak French. In 1860, when Italy unified, only 2.5 per cent of residents regularly spoke standard Italian. Its leaders spoke French to each other. One famously said that, having created Italy, they now had to create Italians – a process many feel is still taking place.

Sociologist Siniša Maleševic of University College Dublin in Ireland believes that this "nation building" was a key step in the evolution of modern nation states. It required the creation of an ideology of nationalism that emotionally equated the nation with people's Dunbar circle of family and friends.

That in turn relied heavily on mass communication technologies. In an influential analysis, the late Benedict Anderson at Cornell University in New York described nations as "imagined" communities: they far outnumber our immediate circle and we will never meet them all, yet people will die for their nation as they would for their family.

Such nationalist feelings, he argued, arose after mass-market books standardised vernaculars and created linguistic communities. Newspapers allowed people to learn about events of common concern, creating a large "horizontal" community that was previously impossible. National identity was also deliberately fostered by state-funded mass education.

The key factor driving this ideological process, Maleševic says, was an underlying structural one: the development of far-reaching bureaucracies needed to run complex industrialised societies. For example, says Breuilly, in the 1880s Prussia became the first government to pay unemployment benefits. At first they were paid only in a worker's native village, where identification was not a problem. As people migrated for work, benefits were made available anywhere in Prussia. "It wasn't until then that they had to establish who a Prussian was," he says, and they needed bureaucracy to do it. Citizenship papers, censuses and policed borders followed.

That meant hierarchical control structures ballooned, with more layers of middle management. Such bureaucracy was what really brought people together in nation-sized units, argues Maleševic. But not by design: it emerged out of the behaviour of complex hierarchical systems. As people do more kinds of activities, says Bar-Yam, the control structure of their society inevitably becomes denser.

In the emerging nation state, that translates into more bureaucrats per head of population. Being tied into such close bureaucratic control also encouraged people to feel personal ties with the state, especially as ties to church and village declined. As governments exerted greater control, people got more rights, such as voting, in return. For the first time, people felt the state was theirs.

Natural state of affairs?

Once Europe had established the nation state model and prospered, says Breuilly, everyone wanted to follow suit. In fact it is hard now to imagine that there could be another way. But is a structure that grew spontaneously out of the complexity of the industrial revolution really the best way to manage our affairs?

According to Brian Slattery of York University in Toronto, nation states still thrive on a widely held belief that "the world is naturally made of distinct, homogeneous national or tribal groups which occupy separate portions of the globe, and claim most people's primary allegiance". But anthropological research does not bear that out, he says. Even in tribal societies, ethnic and cultural pluralism has always been widespread. Multilingualism is common, cultures shade into each other, and language and cultural groups are not congruent.

Moreover, people always have a sense of belonging to numerous different groups based on region, culture, background and more. "The claim that a person's identity and well-being is tied in a central way to the well-being of the national group is wrong as a simple matter of historical fact," says Slattery.

Perhaps it is no wonder, then, that the nation-state model fails so often: since 1960 there have been more than 180 civil wars worldwide.

Such conflicts are often blamed on ethnic or sectarian tensions. Failed states, such as Syria right now, are typically riven by violence along such lines. According to the idea that nation states should contain only one nation, such failures have often been blamed on the colonial legacy of bundling together many peoples within unnatural boundaries.

But for every Syria or Iraq there is a Singapore, Malaysia or Tanzania, getting along okay despite having several "national" groups. Immigrant states in Australia and the Americas, meanwhile, forged single nations out of massive initial diversity.

Living together

What makes the difference? It turns out that while ethnicity and language are important, what really matters is bureaucracy. This is clear in the varying fates of the independent states that emerged as Europe's overseas empires fell apart after the second world war.

According to the mythology of nationalism, all they needed was a territory, a flag, a national government and UN recognition. In fact what they really needed was complex bureaucracy.

Multi-ethnic states such as Malaysia can get along quite well. Some former colonies that had one became stable democracies, notably India. Others did not, especially those such as the former Belgian Congo, whose colonial rulers had merely extracted resources. Many of these became dictatorships, which require a much simpler bureaucracy than democracies.

Dictatorships exacerbate ethnic strife because their institutions do not promote citizens' identification with the nation. In such situations, people fall back on trusted alliances based on kinship, which readily elicit Dunbar-like loyalties. Insecure governments allied to ethnic groups favour their own, while grievances among the disfavoured groups grow – and the resulting conflict can be fierce.

Recent research confirms that the problem is not ethnic diversity itself, but not enough official inclusiveness. Countries with little historic ethnic diversity are now having to learn that on the fly, as people migrate to find jobs within a globalised economy.

How that pans out may depend on whether people self-segregate. Humans like being around people like themselves, and ethnic enclaves can be the result.

Jennifer Neal of Michigan State University has used agent-based modelling to look at the effect of this in city neighbourhoods. Her work suggests that enclaves promote social cohesion, but at the cost of decreasing tolerance between groups. Small enclaves in close proximity may be the solution.

But at what scale? Bar-Yam says communities where people are well mixed – such as in peaceable Singapore, where enclaves are actively discouraged – tend not to have ethnic strife. Larger enclaves can also foster stability. Using mathematical models to correlate the size of enclaves with the incidences of ethnic strife in India, Switzerland and the former Yugoslavia, he found that enclaves 56 kilometres or more wide make for peaceful coexistence – especially if they are separated by natural geographical barriers.

Switzerland's 26 cantons, for example, which have different languages and religions, meet Bar-Yam's spatial stability test – except one. A French-speaking enclave in German-speaking Berne experienced the only major unrest in recent Swiss history. It was resolved by making it a separate canton, Jura, which meets the criteria.

Again, though, ethnicity and language are only part of the story. Lars-Erik Cederman of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich argues that Swiss cantons have achieved peace not by geographical adjustment of frontiers, but by political arrangements giving cantons considerable autonomy and a part in collective decisions.

Similarly, using a recently compiled database to analyse civil wars since 1960, Cederman finds that strife is indeed more likely in countries that are more ethnically diverse. But careful analysis confirms that trouble arises not from diversity alone, but when certain groups are systematically excluded from power.

Governments with ethnicity-based politics were especially vulnerable. The US set up just such a government in Iraq after the 2003 invasion. Exclusion of Sunni by Shiites led to insurgents declaring a Sunni state in occupied territory in Iraq and Syria. True to nation-state mythology, it rejects the colonial boundaries of Iraq and Syria, as they force dissimilar "nations" together.

Ethnic cleansing

Yet the solution cannot be imposing ethnic uniformity. Historically, so-called ethnic cleansing has been uniquely bloody, and "national" uniformity is no guarantee of harmony. In any case, there is no good definition of an ethnic group. Many people's ethnicities are mixed and change with the political weather: the numbers who claimed to be German in the Czech Sudetenland territory annexed by Hitler changed dramatically before and after the war. Russian claims to Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine now may be equally flimsy.

Both Bar-Yam's and Cederman's research suggests one answer to diversity within nation states: devolve power to local communities, as multicultural states such as Belgium and Canada have done.

"We need a conception of the state as a place where multiple affiliations and languages and religions may be safe and flourish," says Slattery. "That is the ideal Tanzania has embraced and it seems to be working reasonably well." Tanzania has more than 120 ethnic groups and about 100 languages.

In the end, what may matter more than ethnicity, language or religion is economic scale. The scale needed to prosper may have changed with technology – tiny Estonia is a high-tech winner – but a small state may still not pack enough economic power to compete.

That is one reason why Estonia is such an enthusiastic member of the EU. After the devastating wars in the 20th century, European countries tried to prevent further war by integrating their basic industries. That project, which became the European Union, now primarily offers member states profitable economies of scale, through manufacturing and selling in the world's largest single market.

What the EU fails to inspire is nationalist-style allegiance – which Maleševic thinks nowadays relies on the "banal" nationalism of sport, anthems, TV news programmes, even song contests. That means Europeans' allegiances are no longer identified with the political unit that handles much of their government.

Ironically, says Jan Zielonka at the University of Oxford, the EU has saved Europe's nation states, which are now too small to compete individually. The call by nationalist parties to "take back power from Brussels", he argues, would lead to weaker countries, not stronger ones.

He sees a different problem. Nation states grew out of the complex hierarchies of the industrial revolution. The EU adds another layer of hierarchy – but without enough underlying integration to wield decisive power. It lacks both of Maleševic's necessary conditions: nationalist ideology and pervasive integrating bureaucracy.

Even so, the EU may point the way to what a post-nation-state world will look like. Zielonka agrees that further integration of Europe's governing systems is needed as economies become more interdependent. But he says Europe's often-paralysed hierarchy cannot achieve this. Instead he sees the replacement of hierarchy by networks of cities, regions and even non-governmental organisations. Sound familiar? Proponents call it neo-medievalism.

"The future structure and exercise of political power will resemble the medieval model more than the Westphalian one," says Zielonka. "The latter is about concentration of power, sovereignty and clear-cut identity." Neo-medievalism, on the other hand, means overlapping authorities, divided sovereignty, multiple identities and governing institutions, and fuzzy borders.

Anne-Marie Slaughter of Princeton University, a former US assistant secretary of state, also sees hierarchies giving way to global networks primarily of experts and bureaucrats from nation states. For example, governments now work more through flexible networks such as the G7 (or 8, or 20) to manage global problems than through the UN hierarchy.

Ian Goldin, a former head of the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford, which analyses global problems, thinks such networks must emerge. He believes existing institutions such as UN agencies and the World Bank are structurally unable to deal with problems that emerge from global interrelatedness, such as economic instability, pandemics, climate change and cybersecurity – partly because they are hierarchies of member states which themselves cannot deal with these global problems. He quotes Slaughter: "Networked problems require a networked response."

Again, the underlying behaviour of systems and the limits of the human brain explain why. Bar-Yam notes that in any hierarchy, the person at the top has to be able to get their head around the whole system. When systems are too complex for one human mind to grasp, he argues that they must evolve from hierarchies into networks where no one person is in charge.

Even today, conflicts usually revolve around issues of nationhood.

Where does this leave nation states? "They remain the main containers of power in the world," says Breuilly. And we need their power to maintain the personal security that has permitted human violence to decline to all-time lows (see “War, what is it good for? Just look around you”).

Moreover, says Dani Rodrik at Harvard University, the very globalised economy that is allowing these networks to emerge needs something or somebody to write and enforce the rules. Nation states are currently the only entities powerful enough to do this.

Yet their limitations are clear, both in solving global problems and resolving local conflicts. One solution may be to pay more attention to the scale of government. Known as subsidiarity, this is a basic principle of the EU: the idea that government should act at the level where it is most effective, with local government for local problems and higher powers at higher scales. There is empirical evidence that it works: social and ecological systems can be better governed when their users self-organise than when they are run by outside leaders.

However, it is hard to see how our political system can evolve coherently in that direction. Nation states could get in the way of both devolution to local control and networking to achieve global goals. With climate change, it is arguable that they already have.

There is an alternative to evolving towards a globalised world of interlocking networks, neo-medieval or not, and that is collapse. "Most hierarchical systems tend to become top-heavy, expensive and incapable of responding to change," says Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands. "The resulting tension may be released through partial collapse." For nation states, that could mean anything from the renewed pre-eminence of cities to Iraq-style anarchy: an uncertain prospect, but there is an upside. Collapse, say some, is the creative destruction that allows new structures to emerge.

Like it or not, our societies may already be undergoing this transition. We cannot yet imagine there are no countries. But recognising that they were temporary solutions to specific historical situations can only help us manage a transition to whatever we need next. Whether or not our nations endure, the structures through which we govern our affairs are due for a change. Time to start imagining.

By Debora MacKenzie, New Scientist Magazine Leader: “In our world beyond nations, the future is medieval” This article appeared in print under the headline “Imagine there’s no countries…” https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22329850-600-end-of-nations-is-there-an-alternative-to-countries/

#international affairs #nationalism

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