#then do the marc dnfs stats

[batsplat]

past performance at the remaining five circuits for both bagnaia and martin

pretty obvious that jorge has had the edge at most of these tracks, with the caveat that this is a very limited sample size. last year pecco was in a position in the championship where it made sense to not risk too much (plus potential aftereffects of the catalunya injury), whereas this year he won't be able to afford that to the same extent. the positive for him is that he emerged from indonesia, a circuit where he has a clear pace deficit, in a marginally strengthened position - the less positive side is you wouldn't necessarily expect him to have an advantage over jorge at these other tracks

the sunday race in motegi last year has the asterisk that it was wet and red-flagged; for what it's worth (not much) practise wouldn't indicate pecco has a massive inherent pace deficit there - but you'd still give the advantage to jorge (cf pecco's horrendous 2022). phillip island last year was the one where jorge made The tyre choice but otherwise had a lot of pace in hand, that one feels like a bit of a toss up given neither has won there in the past (and also a plausible one for both finishing behind marc, maybe even a couple other riders). thailand last year was obviously a martin sweep, but that one did also feature the very tight three way battle in the race between those two and binder until the last lap (bagnaia only got p2 because of binder's track limit violation). again you'd lean martin. sepang feels like a toss up and one where you'd maybe expect bastianini to put in a repeat of last year's performance. valencia is the only one where you'd slightly lean pecco, if the title is still undecided then

overall, given the 21 point deficit and the circuit profiles to come, you'd have to say it's on martin's plate. there's a few more question marks like 'can pecco fix his start problem' and 'how competitive are the other riders' (especially at a track like phillip island) - at this stage a 9 point vs a 5 point swing is pretty substantial. plus ofc there's always stuff like 'hm the weather radar for motegi is looking a bit dubious for saturday'. then there's the obvious question of how both of them hold up mentally - especially given their respective positions in the standings. if the pace differential plays out as you'd expect, jorge can probably afford one more major fuck up and still come out on top, which gives him just about enough margin you'd have to reckon he can weather that storm. and if I were pramac, I'd take pains to ensure nobody tells him as much. pecco obviously can afford a grand total of zero major fuck ups, which traditionally does seem to have a positive impact on his performances. all of which probably means you'd expect them to converge again in the standings by end of the season, but with martin maintaining enough of a buffer to emerge on top. but who knows!

[ferrarigays-moved-to-ferrarism]

MOTOGP 2022 - Rider's Championship

The 2022 MotoGP season is done and naturally, what else would I be doing than a statistics masterpost on the results on the season? Exactly. So here we are for the second year in a row, with confusing stats as per usual. I'll be doing more specific posts later, like rider head to heads and constructor stuff later but this is the starting point.

I'd like to note that all of these stats are just for fun and they are naturally context dependent and open for interpretation. Because the sample size is so small (only seven races) one result changes up the averages a lot. Still, I personally find these a useful tool when thinking about the championship so far and how we got here.

terminology explained:

q. avg - the average qualifying position q. med - the median qualifying positionpole + front rows - poles + starting places on front rows q2 - the number of appearances in q2 r. avg - the average finish in races that the rider finished, DNF’s not included q. med - the median race finish, DNFs included ppr - points per race, out of all races finished how many points scored on average wins + podium - number of wins + number of 2nds and 3rds dnf - the number of retirements * - anything to add, like missed races, team changes etc

Rider's Championship

1. Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Lenovo Team, 265 pts

q. avg - 5,65 q. med - 3 pole + front rows - 5 + 6 q2 - 18/20 r. avg - 3,8 r. med - 4 ppr - 17,7 wins + podium - 7 + 3 dnf - 5

2. Fabio Quartararo, Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP, 248 pts

q. avg - 5,25 q. med - 3 pole + front rows - 1 + 4 q2 - 20/20 r. avg - 4,94 r. med - 4,5 ppr - 14,6 wins + podium - 3 + 5 dnf - 3

3. Enea Bastianini, Gresini Racing MotoGP, 219 pts

q. avg - 9,1 q. med - 9 pole + front rows - 1 + 4 q2 - 12/20 r. avg - 5,63 r. med - 8 ppr - 13,7 wins + podium - 4 + 2 dnf - 5

4. Aleix Espargaró, Aprilia Racing, 212 pts

q. avg - 6,3 q. med - 5,5 pole + front rows - 2 + 3 q2 - 18/20 r. avg - 6,32 r. med - 5,5 ppr - 11,2 wins + podium - 1 + 5 dnf - 1

5. Jack Miller, Ducati Lenovo Team, 189 pts

q. avg - 6 q. med - 5 pole + front rows - 1 + 6 q2 - 18/20 r. avg - 6,5 r. med - 5,5 ppr - 11,8 wins + podium - 1 + 6 dnf - 4

6. Brad Binder, Red Bull KTM Factory Racing, 188 pts

q. avg - 12,15 q. med - 12,5 pole + front rows - 0 + 1 q2 - 10/20 r. avg - 7,11 r. med - 8 ppr - 9,9 wins + podium - 0 + 3 dnf - 1

7. Álex Rins, Team Suzuki Ecstar, 173 points

q. avg - 10,79 q. med - 10 pole + front rows - 0 q2 - 15/20 r. avg - 6,73 r. med - 7,5 ppr - 11,5 wins + podium - 2 + 2 dnf - 4

8. Johann Zarco, Pramac Racing, 166 pts

q. avg - 5,9 q. med 5,5 pole + front rows - 2 + 3 q2 - 18/20 r. avg - 6,27 r. med - 8 ppr - 11,1 wins + podium - 0 + 4 dnf - 5

9. Jorge Martín, Pramac Racing, 152 pts

q. avg - 5,5 q. med - 4,5 pole + front rows - 5 + 4 q2 - 18/20 r. avg - 7,47 r. med - 8,5 ppr - 10,1 wins + podium - 0 + 4 dnf - 5

10. Miguel Oliveira, Red Bull KTM Factory Racing, 149 pts

q. avg - 14,15 q. med - 14 pole + front rows - 0 q2 - 7/20 r. avg - 8,94 r. med - 10 ppr - 8,3 wins + podium - 2 + 0 dnf - 2

11. Maverick Viñales, Aprilia Racing, 122 pts

q. avg - 11,35 q. med - 11,5 pole + front rows - 0 + 1 q2 - 12/20 r. avg - 9,94 r. med - 11 ppr - 6,4 wins + podium - 0 + 3 dnf - 2

12. Luca Marini, Mooney VR46 Racing Team, 120 pts

q. avg - 10,25 q. med - 10 pole + front rows - 0 + 2 q2 - 13/20 r. avg - 10,26 r. med - 10 ppr - 6,3 wins + podium - 0 dnf - 1

13. Marc Márquez, Repsol Honda Team, 113 pts

q. avg - 7,1 q. med - 8 pole + front rows - 1 + 4 q2 - 11/13 r. avg - 5,5 r. med - 6 ppr - 11,3 wins + podium - 0 + 1 dnf - 2 * missed 8 races due to injury

14. Marco Bezzecchi, Mooney VR46 Racing Team, 111 pts

q. avg - 10,1 q. med - 10 pole + front rows - 1 + 1 q2 - 11/20 r. avg - 10,24 r. med - 10,5 ppr - 6,5 wins + podium - 0 + 1 dnf - 3

15. Joan Mir, Team Suzuki Ecstar, 87 pts

q. avg - 11,1 q. med - 11,5 pole + front rows - 0 + 1 q2 - 11/16 r. avg - 8,1 r. med - 12 ppr - 8,7 wins + podium - 0 dnf - 6 * missed 4 races due to injury

16. Pol Espargaró, Repsol Honda Team, 56 pts

q. avg - 13,53 q. med - 13 pole + front rows - 0 q2 - 8/19 r. avg - 12,29 q. med - 14 ppr - 9,3 wins + podium - 0 + 1 dnf - 5 * missed 1 race due to injury

17. Álex Márquez, LCR Honda Castrol, 50 pts

q. avg - 18,4 q. med - 18,5 pole + front rows - 0 q2 - 2/20 r. avg - 13,06 r. med - 14 ppr - 3,1 wins + podium - 0 dnf - 4

18. Takaaki Nakagami, LCR Honda Idemitsu, 48 pts

q. avg - 14,88 q. med - 12 pole + front rows - 0 q2 - 9/20 r. avg - 12,85 r. med - 14 ppr - 3,7 wins + podium - 0 dnf - 4 * missed 3 races due to injury

19. Franco Morbidelli, Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP, 42 pts

q. avg - 16,7 q. med - 17 pole + front rows - 0 q2 - 4/20 r. avg - 13,27 r. med - 15 ppr - 2,8 wins + podium - 0 dnf - 5

20. Fabio Di Giannantonio, Gresini Racing MotoGP, 24 pts

q. avg - 14,5 q. med - 15,5 pole + front rows - 1 + 0 q2 - 5/20 r. avg - 16,38 r. med - 18 ppr - 1,5 wins + podium - 0 dnf - 4

21. Andrea Dovizioso, WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team, 15 pts

q. avg - 19,36 q. med - 19 pole + front rows - 0 q2 - 0 r. avg - 15,1 r. med - 16 ppr - 1,4 wins + podium - 0 dnf - 3

22. Raúl Fernández, Tech3 KTM Factory Racing, 14 pts

q. avg - 22,32 q. med - 22 pole + front rows - 0 q2 - 0 r. avg - 16,69 r. med - 17,5 ppr - 0,88 wins + podium - 0 dnf - 2 * missed 2 races due to injury

23. Remy Gardner, Tech3 KTM Factory Racing, 13 pts

q. avg - 20,4 q. med - 20 pole + front rows - 0 q2 - 0 r. avg - 17,1 r. med - 18,5 ppr - 0,72 wins + podium - 0 dnf - 2

24. Darryn Binder, WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team, 12 pts

q. avg - 22,75 q. med - 23 pole + front rows - 0 q2 - 0 r. avg - 16,69 r. med - 19 ppr - 0,92 wins + podium - 0 dnf - 7

25. Cal Crutchlow, WithU RNF MotoGP Team, 10 pts

q. avg - 17,67 r. med -14,83

26. Stefan Bradl, Repsol Honda Team, 2 pts

q. avg - 19,63 r. med - 17,17

[sbknews]

New Post has been published on Superbike News

New Post has been published on http://superbike-news.co.uk/wordpress/can-andrea-dovizioso-double-home-turf/

Can Andrea Dovizioso double up on home turf?

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Throngs of tourists line the beaches and beachside towns of the Riviera di Rimini as they come to bask in the sun of the Adriatic coast, but many descend on the region for another reason entirely: Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli, set back from the sea but perfectly placed to provide the best of both worlds. Sun, speed and sand – and another home race for many on the grid, not least nine-time World Champion Valentino Rossi (Movistar Yamaha MotoGP). Misano bleeds yellow. The smoke rising from the stands – yellow – and the shirts streaming through the gates – yellow – leave no doubt as to who holds the honour of the hometown hero here. But after an accident in training, the number 46 sadly won’t be riding – so the hopes of Italy in the title fight now fall solely on the shoulders of Andrea Dovizioso (Ducati Team). An Italian rider on an Italian bike riding in Italy – it was a good recipe at Mugello. So can he do it again?

Dovizioso is the man in the lead once more as we arrive into Round 13. Taking another 25 points at Silverstone – a track where, on paper, that should have proved difficult – show ‘DesmoDovi’ is as real a threat as can be crafted. Ducati also tested at the venue recently, and the Italian on the Italian bike will enjoy some good home support – with the Borgo Panigale factory not so far away at all. And his teammate, Jorge Lorenzo, is getting closer by the race. Another half a tenth nearer per lap at Silverstone, the ‘Spartan’ is the man with the stats at Misano: first or second for an incredible eight season span from 2007, beginning with a victory in the 250cc race that year, see Lorenzo top of the pile for track records – good omens stacking up as he makes good progress in red.

Last year was another story. From eighth on the grid, race day belonged to one man: Dani Pedrosa (Repsol Honda Team). Pedrosa, who became the eighth different winner of the year, was untouchable under the blazing Sunday sun. He’ll remember that when he lines up on the grid in 2017, and he’ll want to do it again. Losing no ground in the title fight at Silverstone by way of teammate Marquez’ DNF, it’s only 35 points between Pedrosa in fifth and Dovizioso at the top of the standings. Everything can change in a race, or a single lap.

Marc Marquez found that out the hard way in the British GP. Fighting for the podium and the victory, the rider from Cervera was well placed when he suffered a mechanical problem and was forced to retire with seven laps to go. That saw him lose the lead in the Championship, but not by too much: he’s now in second, nine points off Dovizioso. But Marquez has never won a dry premier class race at Misano, and he’ll want the record book to prove unreliable once again in an ever-changing 2017. A 125cc win, two Moto2™ wins and a flag-to-flag masterclass in 2015 are the statistics that will most interest the reigning Champion.

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Maverick Viñales (Movistar Yamaha MotoGP) is another who wants to write another chapter rather than re-stage one he’s already penned. The title challenger – currently third in the standings – has never won on the Adriatic. But he did take a front row start last year in P3, converted it into a top five result in the race, and has a podium in the lower classes. Track time in recent testing and good feelings reported thereafter should make Viñales a key threat once again – and the Spaniard was only a tenth off the win last time out.

Racing on Italian turf makes home heroes of many. Not least of all Andrea Iannone (Team Suzuki Ecstar), who suffered a crash at Silverstone that saw him collide with compatriot Danilo Petrucci (Octo Pramac Racing), making Misano a perfect stage for both to bounce back. And as well as the home riders, there’s also Aprilia Racing Team Gresini who count Misano as their second home race, making Aleix Espargaro and Sam Lowes eager to write different stories on the Riviera di Rimini to those that transpired in the UK.

As always, there will be a cast of familiar and fast Independent Team names looking to get in their way in the fight at the front: two-time GP winner Cal Crutchlow (LCR Honda), Johann Zarco (Monster Yamaha Tech 3), Alvaro Bautista (Pull&Bear Aspar Team)…and Jonas Folger (Monster Yamaha Tech 3) will be back on track after missing the British GP following a crash in morning Warm Up. Fellow rookie Alex Rins (Team Suzuki Ecstar) was back in the top ten at Silverstone as he regains full fitness, and there’s also Scott Redding (Octo Pramac Racing) riding for a home team and with premier class podium history at the venue, no less. The ever-gaining Red Bull KTM Factory racing are also a serious threat for the top ten now, and there’s no margin for error for any in the tight field of 2017.

The crowd may be partisan, but the competitors never are. They’re out to win, and the stakes for some are higher than ever. Six races and four title challengers remain in 2017: it has, both mathematically and on track, never been so close. And as Silverstone and the week after proved once again – everything can chance in a race, or even a single lap.

The Gran Premio Tribul Mastercard di San Marino e della Riviera di Rimini will add another 28 laps to that racing tally of 2017, and the lights go out for show number 13 at 14:00 on Sunday. Lucky for some? We’re about to find out.

MotoGP World Championship Classification 1 – Andrea Dovizioso (ITA – Ducati) 183 points 2 – Marc Márquez (SPA – Honda) 174 points 3 – Maverick Viñales (SPA – Yamaha) 170 points 4 – Valentino Rossi (ITA – Yamaha) 157 points 5 – Dani Pedrosa (SPA – Honda) 148 points

Meet Marquez and Pedrosa at Misano, and support Nicky Hayden Memorial Fund

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[ferrarigays-moved-to-ferrarism]

MotoGP Statistics: dnfs

Once again here are some maths on MotoGP, this one is about the number of retirements for each rider during their time in the main class after the 2021 season.

I wanted to do some stats around it, so the couple that is used are: percentage of dnfs per race starts and dnfs per season (I only counted full-ish seasons so more than 10 races). Keep in mind that this isn’t an evaluation on what was the reason for the dnf, mechanical or a crash etc, just the numbers. I also did not include the -21 rookies in this since there aren’t many seasons to go by.

Format: rider - percentage of dnfs per starts - dnfs per full seasons - total number of dnfs

Maverick Viñales - 10% - 1,71 - 12 dnf [120 starts, 7 seasons]

Andrea Dovizioso - 12% - 2,15 - 28 dnf [234 starts, 13 seasons]

Takaaki Nakagami - 13,6% - 2,25 - 9 dnf [66 starts, 4 seasons]

Fabio Quartararo - 13,7% - 2,33 - 7 dnf [51 starts, 3 seasons]

Marc Márquez - 14,1% - 2,5 - 20 dnf [142 stars, 8* seasons]

Brad Binder - 15,6% - 2,5 - 5 dnf [32 starts, 2 seasons]

Franco Morbidelli - 16,1% - 2,5 - 10 dnf [62 starts, 4 seasons]

Joan Mir - 16,3% - 2,67 - 8 dnf [49 starts, 3 seasons]

Johann Zarco - 16,7% - 2,8 -14 dnf [84 starts, 5 seasons]

Miguel Oliveira - 18,8% - 3 - 9 dnf [48 starts, 3 seasons]

Pol Espargaró - 19,3% - 3,25 - 26 dnf [135 starts, 8 seasons]

Álex Ríns - 20% - 3,2 - 16 dnf [80 starts, 5 seasons]

Álex Márquez - 25% - 4 - 8 dnf [32 starts, 2 seasons]

Jack Miller - 25,6% - 4,29 - 30 dnf [117 starts, 7 seasons]

Aleix Espargaró - 26,4% - 4,33 - 52 dnf [197 starts, 12 seasons]

Francesco Bagnaia - 29,3% - 4,67 - 14 dnf [47 starts, 3 seasons]

[ferrarigays-moved-to-ferrarism]

MOTOGP 2021: Rider’s Championship based on other quantities

I wanted to do a fun comparison post between the different statistics in the motogp season that I calculated in this post. So here is the Rider’s Championship and how it would be if it was based on the average finish etc.

I marked the change in position compared to the actual finish after the rider’s name. The colors are only for those who had more than two places change based on the value to highlight the differences.

Riders organized based on their average finish

Fabio Quartararo (3,82)

Francesco Bagnaia (4,31)

Joan Mir (5)

Jack Miller (5,21)

Marc Márquez (5,5) +2

Johann Zarco (6,27) -1

Aleix Espargaró (7,08) +1

Jorge Martin (7,1) +1

Brad Binder (7,82) -3

Álex Rins (8,75) +3

Enea Bastianini (9,6)

Pol Espargaró (9,73)

Maverick Viñales (9,96) -3

Álex Márquez (10,25) +2

Miguel Oliveira (10,77) -1

Takaaki Nakagami (11,13) -1

Iker Lecuona (13) +3

Franco Morbidelli (13,46) -1

Valentino Rossi (13,47) -1

Danilo Petrucci (13,85) +1

Luca Marini (14,44) -1

Because the average finish for my calculations only takes into account those races that the riders finished, you see some go up multiple places as they usually finished higher but crashed out so didn’t actually gain those points. The riders who go down usually scored on many occasions but maybe scored bigger points only once or twice, meaning that those show a bit more favorably in the actual championship based on points.

Riders organized based on their median finish

Fabio Quartararo (3)

Francesco Bagnaia (3,5)

Joan Mir (4,5)

Jack Miller (6)

Johann Zarco (6)

Marc Márquez (7,5) +1

Brad Binder (8) -1

Aleix Espargaró (8)

Maverick Viñales (9) +1

Pol Espargaró (10) +2

Jorge Martin (10,5) -2

Enea Bastianini (10,5) -1

Álex Rins (11,5)

Takaaki Nakagami (13) +2

Álex Márquex (13,5) +1

Miguel Oliveira (14,5) -3

Valentino Rossi (14,5) +1

Luca Marini (15) +1

Iker Lecuona (16,5) +1

Danilo Petrucci (17) +1

Franco Morbidelli (17,5) -4

Median finish on the other hand takes into account all the races that the riders competed in, showing the finish right at the middle of the results. The riders going down usually had flashes of brilliance but the median shows that usually they spent their time lower in the race standings. Those going upwards had a better median finish but usually more dnf’s or sorts to affect the actual points scored.

Riders organized based on their points per race

Fabio Quartararo (16,75)

Francesco Bagnaia (15,75)

Marc Márquez (14,2) +4

Joan Mir (13) -1

Jack Miller (12,93) -1

Johann Zarco (11,53) -1

Jorge Martin (11,1) +2

Brad Binder (8,88) -2

Aleix Espargaró (8,69) -1

Álex Rins (8,25) +3

Maverick Viñales (7,59) -1

Enea Bastianini (6,8) -1

Miguel Oliveira (6,71) +1

Pol Espargaró (6,67) -2

Álex Márquez (5,83) +1

Takaaki Nakagami (5,07) -1

Franco Morbidelli (3,62)

Iker Lecuona (3,25) +2

Valentino Rossi (2,92) -1

Danilo Petrucci (2,85) +1

Luca Marini (2,28) -2

Points per race is the total number of points the rider scored across the races they scored points in, no dnf’s counted in. For me, it represents the ’ceiling’ that the rider was capable of, big points etc. If the rider’s result goes up, it means that they had higher points finishes but dnf’s brought them down. Contrast to that the ones who went down, often ���hurt’ in this comparison for more race finishes in the points but lower scoring positions.

disclaimer: none of these stats are obviously a true reflection of the season, in the end the only thing that matters are obviously the points scored