#the poll had several hundred more votes than the others in the thread it was funny sdjgjklmks i only saw it after it ended

[yume-fanfare]

I think one aspect to measure a ship's rarepairness is it's popularity when compared to crackships. If it's more popular than generic crackship 254 then it's probably not a rareepair but if more people will know the crackship than the alternative serious and maybe even well thought out ship between two characters then it is probably most probably a rareepair

i wasnt rly talking about differences between rarepair and crackship but more "what makes a ship popular" in general

imo the difference between crackship and rarepair is the amount of canon content 🤔 crackships don't need a base at all but rarepairs usually have one. if it's "these two characters who haven't talked much would be interesting together" then it's a crackship (what makes a ship rare is a bit harder to measure and each case it's exclusive because you have to take a lot of factors into account). But. i don't think they're mutually exclusive things it's more like. all (or almost all) crackships are rarepairs but not all rarepairs are crackships. for example i'd say rinne/shu is somewhat a crackship? it doesn't have much canon content afaik. meanwhile mitsu/haji, who are both in the same unit and have had several 5*+4* events together, are more of a rarepair: neither are each other's most popular ship, or even second most-popular. but also rinne/shu have 80 fics on ao3 (which is more than some def not rare ships) and mitsu/haji have 11. of course character popularity plays a huge part here (big part of why i said its hard to measure how rare a ship is) (did u guys know kaname has more fics than mitsuru) but my point is.

you could place mitsu//haji in rare, rinne//shu in crack and (spins roulette) haji//shu in both and it all quite checks out

[douchebagbrainwaves]

I'VE BEEN PONDERING ALTERNATIVES

If investors get too involved, they smother one of the founders said I'd read that starting a startup, we would never have taken funding from an incubator. It's a crowded market, I remember one founder saying worriedly. Whereas acquirers are, as of this writing, extremely fickle. The greatest weakness of the list of n things is so relaxing. I stumbled on a good algorithm for spam filtering because I wanted to learn more. You make the title first, and that's why we even hear about new, indy languages like Perl and Python. They did but I am not sure I buy that ABNB reminds me of Etsy in that it facilitates real commerce in a marketplace model directly between two people. The best was that the hypothesis we were testing seems to be correct. Will you have a valid though initially low-res list of n things is the easiest essay form, it should be a good one for beginning writers. Now what I wish I had was a mail reader that somehow prevented my inbox from filling up. There's no thread of reasoning you have to assume it will never happen. But they grew into it really quickly; some of these guys now seem about four inches taller metaphorically than they did at a search engine.

It would certainly be convenient, but you don't know what you're going to write when you start. Technology will increasingly make it possible to relive our experiences. It just seemed a very good sign to me that these guys were hackers, not MBAs, and so on, just like a software company. Few realize that this also describes a flaw in the way funding works at the level of individual firms. The sort of employer you want to go to grad school, and impossible to trick problems into letting you solve them. If a physicist met a colleague from 100 years ago, he could teach him some new things. We do a lot of good mathematicians are bad teachers. When I first learned Lisp, what I liked most about it was that it considered me an equal partner. Most universities aim at this ideal. Back in 1997, one of our competitors raised $20 million in a single round of VC funding. This may not be.

Y Combinator is just accelerating a process that would have been to take every penny of the $20 million and use it. The worthwhile departments, in my opinion, are math, the hard sciences, engineering, history especially economic and social history, and the format prevents the writer from indulging in any flights of fancy. We can find office space, thanks; just give us the money. It's not necessarily evidence readers are lazy; it could also mean they don't have to wait to leave or even enter college to learn these skills. The main function of your initial version was too big and rigid to evolve into something users wanted. Knuth pointed out long ago that speed only matters in a few critical bottlenecks. If you force yourself to shorten the manual, in the sense that architects have to design buildings that don't fall down, but the results were sorted not by the bid times the average amount a user would buy. I remember from it, I doubt it would amount to much more than high school math plus a few concepts from the theory of computation. In every swing state they overestimated the Kerry vote. In Ohio, which Kerry ultimately lost 49-51, exit polls predicted a dead heat. To get a truly random sample, pollsters ask, say, every 20th person leaving the polling place who they voted for. And aside from that, grad school is probably better than most alternatives.

Ideas can morph. At most colleges, admissions officers decide who gets in. And there is a role for mathematical elegance: some kinds of design problems are more personal than others. What's going on? When I went to work for a big company, which is almost unheard of among VCs. They seem to like us too. Young founders are not a new phenomenon: the trend began as soon as computers got cheap enough for college kids to afford them. So Yahoo's sales force had evolved to exploit this source of revenue. And yet a large number of Americans are deeply religious, and the resulting personality is not attractive.

Recently I've had several emails from computer science undergrads asking what to do in college, whether you like it or not, we started out doing. They'd been thrown off balance from the start. This should not really be surprising. The Airbeds just won the first poll among all the YC startups in their batch by a landslide. All such work tends to be related, in that ideas and techniques from one field can often be transplanted successfully to others. We'd like to meet if you are. If you want to work with other good programmers.

Even a VC friend of mine dislikes VCs. Working on hard problems is to work on ways to organize libraries. During the panel, Guy Steele also made this point, with the additional suggestion that the application should not consist of writing the compiler for your language, unless your language happens to be intended for writing compilers. Fred Wilson published a remarkable post about missing Airbnb. It will start with small ones. Multiply this times several hundred, and I completely agree with him. And if you want to avoid writing them. We'll finish that debate tomorrow in our weekly meeting and get back to you with our thoughts.

The list of n things is a degenerate case of essay. Because the main points are unconnected, the list of n things is easier for writers too, it's not surprising that the quality of programmers at your company starts to drop, you enter a death spiral from which there is no correlation between their ages and how well they're doing. Despite the actual meaning of the word 'is' is. So unless their founders could pull off an IPO which would be difficult with Yahoo as a company has never had a sharply defined identity. I'd studied more math in college for that reason. If you look at the emails I exchanged with him at the time more than the valuation of our entire company. What use is it to read all these books if I remember so little from them? Google, ignored revenue at first and concentrated exclusively on development. The reason this is news to anyone is that the project is all your own. They just arrived back from NYC, and when I asked them what was the most significant thing they'd observed, it was hard to imagine anything more fun to work on some very engaging project. Unfortunately the sort of programming where you write a version 1 very quickly and then gradually modify it, but my mental models of the crusades, Venice, medieval culture, siege warfare, and so while their software was good, we should not expect slick presentations from them.

[paulbenedictblog]

%news%

New Post has been published on %http://paulbenedictsgeneralstore.com%

Bbc news Coronavirus: ¿Qué es lo último con Brexit y otras grandes historias?

Bbc news

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Translating...

Image copyright AFP

Image caption In Syria, which recorded its first coronavirus death in slack March, the wrestle has entered its 10th year

Over the previous few months, the coronavirus pandemic has absorbed the total energy of the information cycle. There hasn't been an tournament be pleased it in our lifetimes.

Nonetheless this is now not the truth is to lisp that it is the excellent famous thing taking place on this planet bright now. So what is taking place on in different locations - and what took blueprint to some of the opposite colossal information experiences of the year?

Consider Brexit?

For roughly three years you hardly heard about anything else else in the UK. Now, obviously, the point of interest is on the coronavirus pandemic. Despite Prime Minister Boris Johnson requiring health middle therapy after contracting Covid-19 and the European Union and UK chief negotiators handiest recently popping out of coronavirus quarantine, Downing Road insists it must follow its common timetable.

The UK formally left the European Union on 31 January. Nonetheless we're now in a transition duration up to 31 December, at some point of which the UK is still treated comely remarkable as an EU member whereas negotiations proceed.

Britain's govt says an EU-UK commerce deal must still be in blueprint by the final day of the year. Nonetheless although no longer, the UK may possibly possibly no longer lengthen the transition duration previous that closing date.

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Media captionBrexit: How did we score here?

The premise in the support of the transition duration turn out to be as soon as to minimise disruption introduced on to industry and jog back and forth between the UK and the EU. It will even be extended by a year or two - which the EU thinks would be a impartial correct pass beneath the instances.

There has handiest been one spherical of EU-UK commerce negotiations up to now. They restart this week by video convention and all facets lisp they'll possess their handiest to possess correct and instant development. Nonetheless time is slipping away.

Brussels additionally asks whether UK and EU corporations - already combating the upheaval attributable to the coronavirus - need one more colossal commerce come the pause of this year. Nonetheless whatever they concentrate on, EU leaders may possibly possibly no longer formally demand the UK for an extension. The tight timetable turn out to be as soon as determined by Boris Johnson, they lisp. A name to prolong - if there may be one - must come from London.

A ceasefire few expected to final is preserving in Idlib, for now, because the final insurrection-held establish in northwest Syria braces for the expected onslaught of the lethal coronavirus.

"Other folk are breathing for the time being, and that is also considered as a side catch of the pandemic," says Hassan Hassan of the Middle for World Policy. "The ceasefire is inserting by a thread, nonetheless it no doubt's inserting on the opposite hand."

The 5 March truce agreed by Russia and Turkey halted a unhealthy escalation after Ankara sent hundreds of its troops all over the border to study out to live a Syrian offensive to retake this final province lost in 9 punishing years of wrestle.

Nonetheless Idlib's breathing establish is additionally fraught with apprehension of this recent enemy. The province's health system has been decimated by battling, along with the blistering air advertising and marketing and marketing campaign by Russian and Syrian warplanes. With regards to a million displaced folks, sheltering inside flimsy tents, or on open flooring, have faith few defences in opposition to the highly effective Covid-19.

"There is a humanitarian and political imperative… for a total, instant nationwide ceasefire at some point of Syria," acknowledged UN Special Envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, in his most up-to-date briefing to the UN Security Council.

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Media captionCoronavirus: Fears of virus in Idlib refugee camps

Turkey and Russia, who support opposing facets, now name the shots.

"I catch no longer concentrate on Turkey or Russia judge this ceasefire will shield for a actually lengthy time," says Dareen Khalifa, Senior Analyst with the World Crisis Community. "It left key points unresolved."

That contains the ability forward for the jihadist neighborhood Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS), which dominates Idlib.

The HTS, sceptical of this truce, is purported to be regrouping. The Syrian and Turkish armies are additionally taking support of this live to supply a get to in preparation for the subsequent spherical of war.

It may possibly possibly possibly possibly effectively be bright a subject of time - nonetheless now, it appears to be like, is no longer the time.

For practically a month, the speed amongst Democrats to glance who would select on US President Donald Trump in the favorite election turn out to be as soon as in deep freeze. Broken-down Vice-President Joe Biden had a commanding lead in the primaries, nonetheless self-professed democratic socialist Bernie Sanders - as soon as map to be the entrance-runner - turn out to be as soon as unwilling to concede.

Meanwhile, snort after snort postponed their predominant votes thanks to the coronavirus pandemic. Every candidates cancelled all public events and handiest issued video statements and conducted interviews from their homes.

That modified on Wednesday, as Sanders suspended his advertising and marketing and marketing campaign, all nonetheless making certain that in November American voters will select between Trump and Biden.

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Media captionSanders: "I wish I had better information"

Precisely when - and how - the two candidates may be formally nominated by their events is in some doubt, on the opposite hand. The Democrats have faith already moved their national convention from mid-July to August in the hope that a gathering of hundreds of activists, officers and celebration devoted will then be doable, each from a health and logistical standpoint. Nonetheless that recent date, at the side of the Republican convention location for the pause of August, still appears to be like questionable.

As for the speed itself, Trump has considered a microscopic bump in his poll standings for the reason that pandemic began, doubtless because of the his ubiquitous tv presence in each day afternoon White Residence press conferences.

Biden still holds a microscopic support in head-to-head matchups, on the opposite hand, suggesting the speed is destined to be shut. Nonetheless there is just not any telling what the national mood may be in a couple of weeks, let on my own when the November vote casting day arrives.

The warfare in Yemen, which entered its sixth year in March, has lengthy been labelled the enviornment's forgotten wrestle. With the previous few weeks seeing one more spike in the battling, and because the enviornment's consideration is firmly mounted in different locations, Yemen's wrestle has felt extra forgotten than ever.

Two weeks ago, assaults on cities in Saudi Arabia, claimed by Houthi rebels, led to a series of retaliatory airstrikes on Northern Yemen by the Saudi-led coalition.

It is no longer the truth is bright the battling that Yemen's civilians are having to suffer. I remember reporting on the cholera epidemic in 2016, and reminiscences of the nation's incapability to answer to the spread of the illness are still fresh in my mind. It turn out to be as soon as heart-breaking to survey as folks that had diminished in dimension the illness stumbled on they'd no health middle to flip to.

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Media captionThe hidden victims of the Yemen wrestle

That Yemen is now going thru the specter of a recent ruthless illness, one which requires health middle beds and ventilators the nation doesn't have faith, is a horrible prospect.

The announcement of a ceasefire this week may be welcome information for most Yemenis, nonetheless the heavy toll of the previous half of-decade methodology that although the wrestle turn out to be as soon as to total as of late, it may possibly possibly well select decades for the nation to get better. Six years of bombings and destruction have faith resulted in what the UN has called "the enviornment's worst humanitarian crisis".

The scale, severity and complexity of the nation's wants are staggering. The wrestle has deeply fractured Yemen's financial system and diminished its public institutions, its infrastructure and its health system to rubble. Eighty per cent of the total population require exterior abet bright to continue to exist. And but, the UN launched this week that it turn out to be as soon as reducing its operations in the nation, citing lack of funding.

Because the spectre of Covid-19 looms better, folks all over Yemen, fully mindful that their nation merely may possibly possibly no longer be ready to manage in opposition to the upcoming threat, are bracing themselves.

In early November, the Peaceable South Wales govt launched a snort of emergency and issued the predominant catastrophic fire warning for the reason that rating turn out to be as soon as keep in blueprint 10 years ago.

File-breaking heat, right winds and the relentless drought - which lasted for at the least three years in some areas - fuelled the bushfires. The blazes left 11 million hectares scorched and extra than 2,000 properties destroyed. Australia's natural world turn out to be as soon as decimated. A billion animals had been lost and photography of burned koalas and kangaroos made world headlines.

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Media captionHell to excessive water: Australia’s summer season of extremes

The controversy and anger in opposition to the top minister and the ability he dealt with the crisis and his ability to climate commerce had been as remarkable a component of the fable because the fires themselves.

At final the rain came, flooding some areas whereas ending years of drought in others. There turn out to be as soon as enough rain to keep out most of the fires till they had been all beneath shield a watch on. It turn out to be as soon as a grand reprieve for the volunteer firefighters who had no longer stopped working for months and had been exhausted.

On 31 March, the Peaceable South Wales Rural Fire Provider launched the legit pause of essentially the most unfavorable bushfire season the snort and the nation has experienced. Even though the fires are out, the injury is still there. The bushfires had a catastrophic affect on the financial system - especially in the tourism sector.

Many communities have faith been making an strive to rebuild, nonetheless it no doubt's been a uninteresting and complex job, now made extra sophisticated by the truth all the pieces is on shield thanks to Covid-19. Many households are panicked that with the govt. now turning their plump consideration to tackling the virus, their very dangle losses and struggles may be forgotten.

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[pullcarol0-blog]

2:00PM Water Cooler 9/28/2018

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Readers, as before, I got wrapped round the axle on Kavanaugh. I’ll have more in a bit. A kind reader said not to be apologetic, so I’m not! –lambert UPDATE 3:37PM All done!

Trade

“Nafta Isn’t Dead Yet, Despite Missed Deadline” [Wall Street Journal]. “President Trump has concluded that trade talks with Canada have reached an impasse, giving up on the self-imposed Sept. 30 deadline for completing a full rewrite of the North American Free Trade Agreement. As a result, the administration plans to publish as soon as Friday the draft of a Mexico-only deal that would replace the quarter-century-old trilateral bloc. Does that mean the imminent breakup of the continentwide free-trade zone? Probably not, according to people familiar with the process. A more likely result is some fudging of the deadline and procedures, and more talks with Ottawa over the coming weeks, and possibly months.”

Politics

2020

“Elizabeth Warren Introduces Plan to Expand Affordable Housing and Dismantle Racist Zoning Practices” [The Intercept]. “THIS WEEK, SEN. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., introduced the American Housing and Economic Mobility Act, one of the most far-reaching federal housing bills in decades. The legislation calls for a half-trillion dollar investment in affordable housing over the next 10 years, creating up to 3.2 million new units for low- and middle-income families. The bill also expands the protections of decades-old legislation to reduce discriminatory banking, ban housing discrimination, and desegregate neighborhoods. … Warren’s bill comes on the heels of two other federal housing bills introduced this summer by Democratic Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, of New Jersey and California, respectively. Harris’s bill, which came first, aims to provide financial relief to renters by creating a new refundable tax credit. Booker’s bill would also establish a refundable tax credit….” •��Tax credits. Feh.

“Elizabeth Warren for president? New survey shows Mass. voters don’t love that idea” [Boston Globe]. “Fifty-eight percent of likely Massachusetts voters said they don’t think Warren should run for president, according to a Suffolk University Political Research Center/Boston Globe poll…. Only 32 percent of those surveyed said Warren should run. That’s about the same level of enthusiasm generated by former senator John Kerry. He got the support of 33 percent of voters — and, unlike Warren, he isn’t on anyone’s short list for strongest possible challengers to President Trump.” • Bain Capital’s Deval Patrick got 38.4%.

2018

38 days until Election Day. 38 days is a long time in politics (as we are seeing right now with Kavanaugh).

A very important, nuanced thread, with lots of linky goodness:

I'm a sociologist who studies adolescent sexual violence. In this thread, I offer the basic facts everyone should know about sexual assault to make sense of the #Kavanaugh allegations. (And citations in case you want to read up yourself.)

— Nicole Bedera (@NBedera) September 26, 2018

Do read it all.

* * *

“White House spokesman: Can’t say ‘for certain’ that we have the votes for Kavanaugh” [Politico]. “A handful of key senators, including Republicans Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Jeff Flake, as well as Democrat Joe Manchin, are being closely watched to see where they land on Kavanaugh. All four have yet to announce how they will vote on the Supreme Court nominee’s confirmation.” • Collins is meeting with four assault “survivors” at noon.

“Kavanaugh advances, with Flake calling for a delay in full Senate vote” [The Globe]. “After a flurry of last-minute negotiations, the Senate Judiciary Committee advanced Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination for the Supreme Court after agreeing to a late call from Republican Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona for a one week investigation into sexual assault allegations against the high court nominee… However, it’s unclear if Republican leaders ��� or President Donald Trump — will support Flake’s call for the investigation or might instead press forward with a full Senate vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination. Trump indicated on Friday that he’d leave the decision for such a delay up to the Senate. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump called Christine Blasey Ford’s Thursday testimony both ‘compelling’ and ‘credible.'” • A jack move? Certainly unexpected…

“Democrats Walk Out” [Wall Street Journal]. “As Chairman Grassley read a statement praising Judge Kavanaugh and explaining his decision not to call further witnesses, several Democrats walked out: Sens. Whitehouse, Blumenthal, Hirono and Harris. As Mr. Grassley continued his statement praising the judge and criticizing the Democrats’ approach to the nomination, Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont walked out. Then the ranking Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, Rep. Jerrold Nadler of New York, took a seat in the back of the room.” • Pointless.

“Angry and embittered, Kavanaugh casts nomination in partisan terms” [Yahoo News]. “Rebutting Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations of sexual assault, Kavanaugh cast himself as the victim, bitterly attacking the 10 Democrats seated before him. He called the initial hearings into his nomination an ’embarrassment,’ suggesting that he was the subject of ‘left-wing opposition groups.’ Sputtering with rage, Kavanaugh went so far as to claim that his opponents were seeking ‘revenge on behalf of the Clintons,’ though he offered no evidence for that assertion.” • Well, on left-wing liberal oppo, he was right, wasn’t he?

“Rachel Mitchell’s disappearing act confirms GOP blunder” [Politico]. “The five-minute rounds of questioning — a request from Ford’s legal team that not every Democrat was comfortable with initially — didn’t help the GOP’s cause, either. Mitchell couldn’t establish any rhythm, clearly frustrating Republicans…. But Mitchell pursued some seemingly trivial rounds of questioning that didn’t elicit any information to undermine Ford’s testimony. Mitchell and Ford had a lengthy exchange over Ford’s fear of flying, although they established that Ford often flew for her job as a psychologist and to attend family events. Some of Mitchell’s precious time was used to question Ford about her fear of flying and to ask whether she’d been to Australia. She said she had not. Mitchell clearly suffered from the fact that neither the committee, nor the FBI had questioned Ford previously, which left Mitchell probing a lot of dry holes and sometimes drawing answers that were unhelpful to the GOP side.” • The call for an FBI investigation would look a lot better if [genuflects] Joe Biden hadn’t said they were useless in the Anita Hill/Clarence Thomas hearings.

“”If They Can, They Will”: The Ford-Kavanaugh Hearing and the Angry Politics of Now” [Susan Glasser, The New Yorker]. “Emotion does not win on Capitol Hill, though, where the majority rules. The Democrats supporting Ford and demanding a more thorough investigation of her charges before voting on Kavanaugh do not control the Senate, and they did not get to set the terms of the hearings. In Washington, process determines outcome, and in this case the outcome was very likely determined from the moment Republicans on the Judiciary Committee set up the process. The process was designed to give us the deadlock of he-said-she-said, and, in the end, that is exactly what it did. Ford said she was ‘a hundred per cent certain’ that Kavanaugh had attacked her; Kavanaugh said he was ‘a hundred per cent’ sure he had not. How could it have been any other way? There was no independent F.B.I. investigation; no other witnesses were called. Questions were limited to one five-minute round for each senator. Ford spoke first and Kavanaugh second; he would have the last word.” • FWIW, I think a functional Democrat party would have had the Senators co-ordinate their questioning and make it truly an interrogation (they didn’t), wouldn’t allow last-minute outside parties (Avenatti, the New Yorker) to drive the selection of potential witnesses, and would have something to say about Kavanaugh’s opinions. Instead we get empty performative gestures like walk-outs and a focus on effing process, and nothing on, say, Roe v. Wade, which is surely the subtext of the entire exercise for both parties. UPDATE Not to mention Kavanaugh’s seamy record with Ken Starr, or his role as a politlcal operative generally. As a result–

What normie voters saw was a man angry about being accused of assault & cagey, like presumably many normal folks, about discussing how much he used to drink. They didn't see a man dodging the actual details of the allegations because the Dems didn't really ask about them!

— Osita Nwanevu (@OsitaNwanevu) September 28, 2018

* * *

“The rape culture of the 1980s, explained by Sixteen Candles” [Vox]. “But if there’s one thing we can take away from the popular culture of the 1980s, when the alleged events took place, it’s that a sexual assault at that time might not have been immediately clear as what it was, for participants and observers alike. Some of the most popular comedies of the ’80s are filled with supposedly hilarious sequences that portray what in 2018 would be unambiguously considered date rape.” • An especially horrid incident played for laughs. One reaction–

I could not agree more. @constancegrady https://t.co/1tWI1vePBv

— Molly Ringwald (@MollyRingwald) September 28, 2018

• Making today’s outrage presentist?

UPDATE “Brett Kavanaugh’s Testimony Made It Easier Than Ever to Picture Him as an Aggressive, Entitled Teen” [Slate] • Henry the V without Prince Hal, as it were. That said, aggressive, entitled teens aren’t especially thin on the ground, and it’s a ways from a sense of entitlement to sexual assault. Now, an aggressive teen who, as an adult, is being nominated for the Supreme Court and has terrible opinions is quite another things, but the Democrats seem unable even to consider raising that issue. The norms fairy, perhaps.

UPDATE “The Editors: It is time for the Kavanaugh nomination to be withdrawn” [America]. “While we previously endorsed the nomination of Judge Kavanaugh on the basis of his legal credentials and his reputation as a committed textualist*, it is now clear that the nomination should be withdrawn…. Dr. Blasey’s accusations have neither been fully investigated nor been proven to a legal standard, but neither have they been conclusively disproved or shown to be less than credible. Judge Kavanaugh continues to enjoy a legal presumption of innocence, but the standard for a nominee to the Supreme Court is far higher; there is no presumption of confirmability. The best of the bad resolutions available in this dilemma is for Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination to be withdrawn.” • A Jesuit magazine.

“Christine Blasey Ford’s GoFundMe campaign is surging after today’s testimony” [CNN]. • $410,000 and rising.

“I Wasn’t Assaulted” [Libby Watson, Medium]. “I wasn’t assaulted, but there are lot of ways to get hurt in bed when you’re a woman.” • It’s like the 80s were a national laboratory for bad sex. Although maybe that was the 70s.

* * *

At the margins….

The approval ratings of the past 4 US presidents from their inaugurations to their first mid-term elections pic.twitter.com/Bn9Im1yE2G

— AFP news agency (@AFP) September 28, 2018

“Democrats dropping $21 million on Senate digital ads largely targeting health care” [NBC]. “So far this cycle, [Senate Majority PAC (SMP)] has been the top outside spender of either party on ads. It’s spent almost $40 million through Wednesday, according to data from Advertising Analytics, and has more advertising dollars booked from now through Election Day than any other outside group.” • Does make you wonder what would happen with #MedicareForAll if the powers that be spent any money on advertising it, instead of propping up the wretched ObamaCare.

ME Senate:

Just traveled overnight on a bus from Maine to DC with a group of bold activists urging @SenatorCollins to #StopKavanaugh. pic.twitter.com/SfPtSg1WFu

— Zak Ringelstein (@RingelsteinME) September 28, 2018

Ringelstein’s done this before, and kudos to him, though I loathe that focus-grouped word “bold.”

Stats Watch

Personal Income and Outlays, August 2018: “The refrain of “strong” throughout the FOMC’s assessment of the economy on Wednesday isn’t confirmed by the personal income and outlays report for August where modest-to-moderate is the better description” [Econoday]. And: “Consumer income growth year-over-year is insignificantly lower than spending growth year-over-year…. Overall, the data is little different than last month” [Econintersect].

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, September 2018: “General economic growth in Chicago slowed in September” [Econoday]. “[S]till very strong.” And: “The results of this survey continue to correlate to district Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys – and generallly aligns with the overall trend of the ISM manufacturing survey” [Econintersect].

Consumer Sentiment, September 2018 (Final): “very healthy,” “down slightly” [Econoday]. “Income optimism across all groups is the strongest since 2004 and is getting a lift from declining inflation expectations and, with this, the prospect of rising spending power. And despite concerns over tariffs, which were cited by nearly 1/3 of the sample, consumers see economic growth continuing and unemployment falling. Note that among those who cite tariffs as a concern, confidence is generally lower.” And: “Final September 2018 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Little Changed From Preliminary” [Econintersect].

Retail: “Inside the New Amazon 4-Star Store, a Novelty Gift Shop” [Wall Street Journal]. “Reminiscent of a novelty gift store or an airport gadget shop, the new Amazon 4-star store on Thursday was selling his and hers mugs, candles, teapots, pet toys, ‘Star Wars’ droids and vegetable peelers… ‘Approximately 90% of all retail is still happening in the physical store,’ said Rob Garf, vice president of strategy and insights at Salesforce Commerce Cloud. ‘This is less about Amazon getting into a new genre or category of retail, I think this is Amazon testing and learning about physical retail.'”

The Bezzle: “How Dirty Money Disappears Into the Black Hole of Cryptocurrency” [Wall Street Journal]. “A North Korean agent, a stolen-credit-card peddler and the mastermind of an $80 million Ponzi scheme had a common problem. They needed to launder their dirty money. They found a common solution in ShapeShift AG, an online exchange backed by established American venture-capital firms that lets people anonymously trade bitcoin, which police can track, for other digital currencies that can’t be followed…. The company’s financial backers include Pantera Capital and FundersClub in California and Access Venture Partners in Colorado. Partners with Pantera and Access said their legal reviews satisfied them that ShapeShift is operating within the law. FundersClub and its partners didn’t respond to messages seeking comment…. A Wall Street Journal investigation identified nearly $90 million in suspected criminal proceeds that flowed through such intermediaries over two years.” • Lots of colorful characters in this story!

Tech: “Facebook Is Breached, Putting 50 Million Users’ Data at Risk” [New York Times]. “Facebook said it did not know the origin or identity of the attackers, nor had it fully assessed the scope of the attack. The company said it was still in the beginning stages of its investigation.” • And I’m sure we’ll be kept fully informed…

Tech: And speaking of Facebook, this Job Description:

Are you sitting down tweeps? Here’s a job ⁦@facebook⁩ . Director of Data Leaderhip “The Data Leadership Team's mission is to drive innovation in the responsible, ethical and lawful use of data to deliver economic, social and individual value for all” https://t.co/ckfSRsnsmu

— Privacy Matters (@PrivacyMatters) September 28, 2018

I think Facebook is already doing a pretty good job “driving innovation” in “ethics.” Is this new position really needed?

Tech: You don’t own anything digital unless you control the storage. Thread:

Me: Hey Apple, three movies I bought disappeared from my iTunes library. Apple: Oh yes, those are not available anymore. Thank you for buying them. Here are two movie rentals on us! Me: Wait… WHAT?? @tim_cook when did this become acceptable? pic.twitter.com/dHJ0wMSQH9

— Anders G da Silva (@drandersgs) September 10, 2018

Like giving you a rental voucher after stealing your house… .

Tech: “Google CEO will testify before U.S. House on bias accusations” [Reuters]. “Google Chief Executive Sundar Pichai has agreed to testify before the U.S. House Judiciary Committee later this year over Republican concerns that the company is biased against conservatives, a senior Republican said on Friday.” • It’s biased against the left, too! But you won’t hear about that….

MMT

Simulcasting The Second International Conference of Modern Monetary Theory (#mmtconf18), Friday-Sunday, Sept 28-30, The New School, New York City (hat tip, DCBLogger):

Class Warfare

“Port Workers Plan Strike in L.A. to Challenge Logistics Firms” [Bloomberg]. “Warehouse workers and truck drivers at Los Angeles ports are planning to launch a three-day strike Monday, aiming to put pressure on logistics companies they claim owe them back wages. The strike is the latest effort by labor groups to focus on workers who companies don’t consider direct employees, or who get their paychecks from other firms in the supply chain. It also exemplifies how strikes in the U.S. have shifted toward drawing public scrutiny to corporate behavior and workers’ demands — such as the union-backed “Fight for $15″ — rather than directly disrupting their bottom line. Port officials have said that previous Teamster port strikes led to some shipments being turned away but had a limited impact on port operations. The union hopes that its mobilizations next week will heighten public pressure on the logistics firms and on their prominent clients, which the Teamsters said include Amazon.com Inc., Toyota Motor Corp., Puma and Rio Tinto Plc.” • Hmm. I wonder how the locals feel about that “public scrutiny” model. Still, nice to the Democrats all over this, supporting labor right before the mid-terms. Oh, wait…

“Pope defrocks Chilean priest at center of abuse scandal” [Associated Press]. “Francis sparked a crisis in his papacy earlier this year when he strongly defended one of Karadima’s protégés, Bishop Juan Barros, against accusations that he had witnessed Karadima’s abuse and ignored it Francis had claimed that the accusations against Barros were “calumny” and politically motivated, and he defended his 2015 decision to appoint Barros bishop of a small Chilean diocese over the objections of the faithful and many in the Chilean hierarchy. After realizing that something was amiss, Francis ordered a Vatican investigation that uncovered decades of abuse and cover-ups by the Chilean church leadership. Francis apologized to the victims, inviting Cruz and fellow survivors James Hamilton and Jose Andres Murillo to the Vatican for four days of talks. He set about making amends, including getting every active bishop in Chile to offer to resign. To date, he has accepted seven of the more than 30 resignations offered, including that of Barros.” • I’m glad some bishops resigned. In Chile. It’s a atart.

News of the Wired

For those who remember the terror alerts, post-9/11:

Current status pic.twitter.com/Gik6zg12nQ

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) September 28, 2018

* * *

Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, with (a) links, and even better (b) sources I should curate regularly, (c) how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal, and (d) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. Today’s plant (AH):

AH writes: “This is the project my mom and I worked on this summer. The previous owner had built garden beds around the entire house, which is great. The problem, though, is that she (the previous owner) only planted hosta. It was hosta for days. Hundreds of feet of it, hundreds of plants. So I had to dig it all up in order to plant the gardens my mom is really good at creating. She designs gardens specifically where plants flower at different times throughout the summer. This picture is late summer where most of the garden had already flowered, like bleeding hearts and most of the bulb flowers (I suck at remembering the names of things). The garden pictured here is mostly from Spragues (our favorite nursery in central Maine), plus rocks pulled from the woods out back. We also found a small birch along the rock wall of the property (below the greenhouse). Personally, I would do without the cheesy garden ornaments, but it’s my mom’s house and she loves those things. We will repeat this every summer until all hosta has been conquered once and for all!” Spragues is where I got my first plants, too!

* * *

Readers, I’m still running a bit short on plants. Probably a little soon for fall foliage, or wrapping up the garden, but I’m sure you can find something! How about a project you completed over the summer?

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So do feel free to make a contribution today or any day. Here is why: Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for five or ten days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of small donations helps me with expenses, and I factor that trickle in when setting fundraising goals. So if you see something you especially appreciate, do feel free to click the hat!

To give more, click on the arrow heads to the right of the amount.

If you hate PayPal — even though you can use a credit card or debit card on PayPal — you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check.

This entry was posted in Guest Post, Water Cooler on September 28, 2018 by Lambert Strether.

About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets��). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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← A Rational Backlash Against Globalization

Source: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/09/200pm-water-cooler-9-28-2018.html

[itsasif007-blog]

Shiva Ayyadurai’s Senate Campaign Was Being Promoted By Fake Facebook Accounts

New Post has been published on http://liststories.com/shiva-ayyadurais-senate-campaign-was-being-promoted-by-fake-facebook-accounts/

Shiva Ayyadurai’s Senate Campaign Was Being Promoted By Fake Facebook Accounts

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BuzzFeed News; Getty Images

"id": 121753414

Patti Johnson is a die-hard Trump supporter. Her Facebook profile photo shows her in an American flag bikini with “Trump 16” handwritten written across her chest in a white gel.

Since the summer, she’s also been working hard to promote the candidacy of V.A. Shiva Ayyadurai, a wealthy entrepreneur running as an independent to unseat Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren this November. He’s a distant third in the polls, but Ayyadurai has managed to attract attention for his slogan, “Only a REAL Indian can defeat the Fake Indian,” a dig at Warren’s claim to Native American heritage. He previously gained notoriety for a claim that he invented email, which is disputed by internet historians, and was known for being married to actor Fran Drescher. (They split in 2016.)

Johnson certainly felt he was worth fighting for; she was one of the “Top Fans” for Ayyadurai’s Facebook page. On Aug. 17, she shared a video to at least 10 different Facebook pages and groups showing Ayyadurai supporters protesting outside of Warren’s Cambridge home. In her posts she turned the pro-Warren mantra “Nevertheless, she persisted” on its head, writing instead, “nevertheless WE persisted #Shiva4Senate #MAGA #KAG.”

But three weeks ago, after inquiries from BuzzFeed News, Facebook deleted the Johnson account along with at least three other fake profiles that appear to have been part of a coordinated astroturfing campaign to benefit Ayyadurai. Facebook also removed three profiles and a page belonging to a key Ayyadurai campaign volunteer, Frank Licata.

"id": 121753473

Boston Globe / Getty Images

Shiva Ayyadurai (center) makes his way to the Boston Free Speech rally where he was scheduled to speak at the Boston Common, Aug. 19, 2017.

"id": 121753414

A Facebook spokesperson told BuzzFeed News the company “disabled several accounts and Pages for violating our policies against fake accounts, spam, and misrepresentation.”

Though this instance of false amplification was small-scale compared to the millions of impressions generated by Russian trolls during and after the 2016 election, it demonstrates the ongoing presence of astroturfing and fake accounts in US politics.

The fake profiles were created in June and July and appear to have been dedicated solely to pushing positive messages about Ayyadurai, attacking his opponents, or engaging in flame wars with people on Facebook who don’t support him. The four fake accounts alone were responsible for hundreds of posts and comments over the summer before being shut down. They often shared the same content at the same time as the Licata profiles and page, though there is no direct evidence that Licata was behind them.

Ayyadurai’s campaign relies exclusively on volunteer labor, and Licata is one of his most active volunteers. He was personally thanked in a June 25 campaign email. BuzzFeed News asked Ayyadurai about the fake accounts and the removed pages at a recent campaign event. He said he knew nothing about them and asked, “Really, who are they?” He said he only manages his Twitter account and declined to say who runs his verified Facebook page with over 40,000 followers. After more questions about the removed accounts, he ended the interview.

“We’re going to end this interview right now because you’re doing an insane and inane interview,” he said. “I’m a serious political candidate.”

Ayyadurai added, “You’re doing a racist interview right now because you’re a racist. You are. You’re reducing a guy who busted his ass, came from India with nothing, to nonsense. And you came here to do a hit piece and you should go out.”

He did not respond to follow-up requests for comment by phone and email.

When asked about the fake accounts and the simultaneous removal of his profiles and page, Licata said in an email, “I don’t know about that, but what I do know is that I love patriotic American revolutionaries like our great President Trump and Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai, the next US Senator from MA!”

Along with the four fake profiles, Facebook removed a group called “Geoff Diehl Betrayed Trump,” which targeted the GOP nominee. (Ayyadurai originally intended to earn the GOP nomination but later gathered the 10,000 signatures necessary to appear on the ballot as an independent.) That Facebook group has seen people share misleading claims about Diehl being a “Fake Trumper.” One alleged that Diehl did not serve as the Massachusetts for Trump campaign chair as he claims, and that he faked a photo of him shaking then-candidate Trump’s hand. Neither is true.

Also removed was a page with 9,000 fans where the fake accounts often posted comments. According to the page’s history, since being created on May 19, 2016, it changed its name and focus several times, a favorite tactic of disinformation purveyors. The page name changed from “Veterans Against Draft Dodger Donald Trump” to “Women Against Rape, Sexual Assault, and Hillary Clinton” to “Bill Clinton’s Sexual Assault Evidence Collection Kit” to its final incarnation, “Americans Against Elizabeth Warren.”

"id": 121753475

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

A booth in support of Shiva Ayyadurai, who is running against Sen. Elizabeth Warren, displays a photoshopped image of Warren wearing a Native American headdress inside the Conservative Political Action Conference Hub, Feb. 23, 2018 in National Harbor, Maryland.

"id": 121753414

The oldest fake account appears to have been one using the name “Vinnie Boombatz,” which is the name of a character in a Rodney Dangerfield sketch. His profile picture was uploaded on June 18, suggesting this was when the account was created. The other fake accounts — Donna Trumper, Patti Johnson, and Eddie Decker — appear to have been created between July 8 and 12. That’s when they began their astroturfing operation in earnest. All four accounts had profile pictures that were taken from elsewhere on the internet, as evidenced by a reverse Google Images search. In pro-Trump, anti-Warren Facebook pages and groups, the fake accounts posted similar if not identical messages across the platform to create the impression of grassroots support for their candidate.

In many cases, they were added to Facebook groups by one another or by Ayyadurai’s Facebook page. Licata, the campaign’s key social media volunteer, also personally added Vinnie Boombatz to a group on June 30, and later added the three other sock puppets. The fake accounts went on to become administrators of some groups, lording over their internet fiefdoms and ridiculing anyone who disagreed with them. They often posted in quick succession, giving the impression that whoever controlled the accounts was logging out of one and into another.

"id": 121754393

Facebook

"id": 121753414

For example, on Aug. 25, after the Mollie Tibbetts murder made headlines, the four fake accounts, as well as three accounts and one page created in Licata’s name, sprung into action at the same time. They all shared a photo of Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker and Warren, with many making the same comment: “The brutal denial of the value of #MollieTibbetts life by U.S. Senator Liz Warren reflects her being accustomed to the lack of any real opposition to her nonsense by the massGOP, who are actually her friends. This pic of #NeverTrumper Republican Gov. Charlie Baker and the #FakeIndian explains it all!”

The four accounts shared the photo 25 times between 9:44 a.m. and 10:06 a.m. to groups and pages such as “Trump Rocks!,” “New England for Trump,” and “Citizens to Defeat Senator Elizabeth Warren.” Licata’s personal profiles and his public page shared the post five times. All were later removed by Facebook.

Sometimes the fake accounts would gang up on those who opposed Ayyadurai. When a user named Paul wrote, “I would never vote for Warren. This guy is just as fake,” they piled on with Licata’s accounts in tow.

In a long thread of attacks, Patti Johnson wrote, “Paul is a DOPE!” Vinnie Boombatz responded, “Pussy Paul likes to talk about other peoples candidates but not his own.” Donna Trumper agreed: “Ayup, Vinnie, apparently Paul is a RepubliCrat establishment tool just like Liz+Charlie’s puppet Dirty Diehl.”

Paul eventually caught on, writing, “Donna Trumper is fake like both Indians running. It’s crazy to think you guys are more fake than Liz and call her out for being fake.”

Source link

[asylum-ireland-blog]

Canadian politicians are playing a dangerous game on migration

New Post has been published on http://asylumireland.ml/canadian-politicians-are-playing-a-dangerous-game-on-migration/

Canadian politicians are playing a dangerous game on migration

Canada has joined the club of states embroiled with irregular migration. But our challenges are not unique, and we have two decades of European misadventures with irregular migration to guide our response. Unfortunately, Canadian politicians are following a well-rehearsed script in which crisis responses to anti-refugee sentiment undermine liberal values, limit policy options and open us to blackmail by hostile neighbours.

I have spent several years studying Europe’s relationship with irregular migration, most recently on a six-week trip that included looking at the Italian government’s hardline policies.

Interior Minister Matteo Salvini came to power on a promise to expel 500,000 migrants, and has spent his short tenure repealing services, criminalizing migrant rescue NGOs, fostering xenophobic nationalism and undermining European solidarity.

Salvini attends a news conference after meeting Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Milan, Italy, in August 2018. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

Salvini, also serving as deputy prime minister, blames migrants for longstanding Italian social problems like youth unemployment. In June, Tito Boeri, head of the Italian pension agency, clashed with Salvini on a very simple point that immigration was needed in light of an aging workforce. Salvini responded by stating that the tenured economist “lives on Mars” and that evidence-based arguments about demographics “ignored the will” of Italians.

This kind of populism has troubling parallels in Canada. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has blamed asylum-seekers for longstanding affordable housing challenges and ended cooperation with the federal government on the issue. His stonewalling and scapegoating to foster a crisis in the lead-up to the 2019 federal election are well-worn tactics.

Fears trump facts

Anti-immigrant populism trades on two interrelated trends. First, facts matter far less than voters’ feelings; second, as Daniel Stockemer from the University of Ottawa puts it, scapegoating migrants pays off at the ballot box. Ruling parties are caught in a bind since governments that want votes should be responsive to their citizens. But responding to anti-immigrant sentiments means policies with negative economic, social and security outcomes.

Ruling parties in Europe have tried to thread the needle by getting tough on irregular migration while maintaining open asylum systems. They must show voters that they’re doing something when their political challengers claim they have lost control of borders and undermined public safety. Statements by Michelle Rempel, the Conservative Party of Canada’s immigration critic, about irregular migration are thus wholly unoriginal.

Xenophobia fosters false opinions. Many Italians believe foreigners comprised 26 per cent of the population, when in reality it is only nine per cent. Similarly, a recent Angus Reid poll found Canadians overestimated the number of asylum-seekers by almost 60 per cent. The majority said Canada was too generous, and that the current situation represented a crisis despite the swath of Liberal ministers and range of credible experts saying the opposite.

Crises demand action

Crises demand extraordinary measures. Seventy-one per cent of respondents in the Angus Reid survey would devote resources to border security if they were in charge. Only 29 per cent said they would focus on assisting arrivals. Respondents were more aware of the asylum issue than any other in 2018. But as in Europe, Canadians’ strong opinions are based on feelings rather than facts.

The federal Liberals have reacted by shuffling the cabinet and appointing a tough-on-crime ex-police chief to oversee the issue. But Bill Blair has been named Minister of Border Security and Organized Crime Reduction. While this might seem like a savvy move, bundling migration with security narrows the range of options to reactive and counter-productive policies that exclude economic and social interventions. When your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Not to be outdone, the Conservatives would extend the Safe Third Country Agreement to the entirety of the border, meaning asylum-seekers could be turned back anywhere.

Securitizing borders is expensive, rarely works for long and undermines refugee protection. It also results in more criminality. Prohibition in the face of high demand fosters black market supply. Illicit economies and more dangerous routes also make migrants vulnerable to human trafficking.

What’s more, criminalizing migrants reduces policy options. Politicians in Europe are obsessed with “breaking” smuggling rings, with little interest in the supply/demand logics that drive them. Irregular migration becomes more spectacular, offering politicians fodder to escalate the response. This leads to right-wing parties framing migration as a civilizational threat, the starkest examples of which can be found in Austria, Hungary and Italy.

Maxime Bernier’s tweets about “extreme multiculturalism” and the “cult of diversity” were cribbed from European populists. His break from the Conservative Party in favour of forming an intellectually and morally authentic right-wing party was right on script.

Despite Conservative attempts to brush off Bernier’s defection at the party’s recent policy convention, a far-right fringe party could bleed voters. If Europe offers any lessons, the Conservatives will likely mimic Bernier’s arguments.

That both Andrew Scheer and Michelle Rempel supported far-right activists to score points against Justin Trudeau is telling. So is the fact that Conservative delegates voted for ending birthright citizenship based on apocryphal stories of citizenship tourists.

Scheer speaks at the Conservative policy convention in Halifax in August, where delegates voted in favour of ending birthright citizenship. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan

Canadians like to believe we are exceptionally tolerant. Environics pollster Michael Adams argues that Canada is particularly resistant to xenophobic populism, partly because of our immigration history. But the current situation reveals a different story: Canada’s openness is more about exceptional geography.

In a 2017 study, Michael Donnelly from the University of Toronto found that Canada is no more tolerant than similar countries, and argued our resistance to populism is because we’ve been spared migration crises. That’s no longer true.

Frays the social fabric

What can be done? The government inherited a broken refugee system from Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, but the Liberals must address unsustainable backlogs in asylum processing, which cascade through the system and decrease people’s trust in its efficacy. Conservatives must ask whether scapegoating asylum-seekers for votes is worth the cost. It frays the social fabric, and will leave them holding the bag if they win the 2019 election.

Political discourse matters. The migrants and asylum-seekers I interviewed this summer told me time and again that Salvini ascension had changed the mood. People routinely approach them in the street to tell them that their time is up and they’ll be expelled to Africa. Italian nationalists have shot migrants in the street. Recall that the Québec City mosque shooter was motivated by xenophobic nationalism. It can, and has, happened here.

All of this might sound like the moralizing of a university researcher (from Toronto, no less), so I will conclude with a national security rationale. Canada’s 2019 federal election campaign will coincide with dates for ending Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of migrants in the United States. While some might choose to come here, the more troubling option is that Donald Trump could send them our way.

Beggar-thy-neighbour policies can be used to exacerbate migration crises, and Trump is nothing if not a zero-sum thinker. As Kelly Greenhill from Tufts University has shown, states routinely use “engineered migration” to coerce or deter their rivals. [Turkey did it to Europe in 2016], securing an extra three billion Euros with a threat that it would allow hundreds of thousands of asylum-seekers into Europe.

It would take a profound willed ignorance to assume Trump is beyond engineering a migration event to deflect public opinion at home, influence the Canadian elections or leverage trade concessions. Politicians from across the spectrum have a duty to ensure Canada is not exposed to that kind of blackmail, particularly not for gains at the ballot box. That means de-escalating the rhetoric and co-operating to ensure we have our house in order.

,http://theconversation.com/canadian-politicians-are-playing-a-dangerous-game-on-migration-101668

[newstfionline]

On Irish Border, Worries That ‘Brexit’ Will Undo a Hard-Won Peace

By Sarah Lyall, NY Times, Aug. 5, 2017

LONDONDERRY, Northern Ireland--Crossing the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic used to involve delays, checkpoints, bureaucratic harassment and the lurking threat of violence. That it’s now virtually seamless--that you can drive across without even knowing it--feels close to miraculous.

It is also one of the great successes of the Irish peace process of the last several decades. “It was like you had to climb over a locked gate,” George Fleming, the president of the Londonderry Chamber of Commerce, said in an interview. “And then someone came and opened the gate.”

But as with so many British-related matters these days, “Brexit”--Britain’s divorce from the European Union--has thrown this hard-won arrangement into jeopardy.

If the British government succeeds in extricating itself from the European Union, the two parts of Ireland will lose one of their most important connective threads: a shared membership in the bloc. In an instant, one part of the island would be in Europe, and the other would not.

Established nearly 100 years ago according to political expedience rather than natural logic, the border--some 300 miles long, with about 210 crossings--is not easy to control, police or even always identify. (Many of the crossings are on tiny back roads.)

Reinstating a hard border, as residents call it, would have both psychological and practical implications. The movement of goods and services between north and south, now commonplace and easy, would become far more complicated with the introduction of new tariffs and customs regulations.

There are fears, too, about the return of armed guards and checkpoints, a resurgence of smuggling and other types of lawlessness, and a renewal of violence from dissident Irish republicans bound to chafe at signs of British control at the crossings.

Northern Ireland voted against Brexit in last year’s referendum. Polls show that for practicality’s sake, a majority of people in the region, whether they identify themselves as Irish or British, want the border to remain porous and fluid.

“To reimpose the border is like putting up the Berlin Wall again, after you’ve taken it down,” said Mr. Fleming, whose farm equipment company is based just two miles from the border.

He employs people from both north and south; does business in both north and south (and abroad); and, along with some 325,000 other people per week, regularly drives back and forth, too many times to count, between the two places. His 96-year-old mother lives just across the border, in the republic.

The island has been split in two since 1921--the north, part of the United Kingdom and governed from London, and the south, a sovereign nation governed from Dublin. Most of the United Kingdom-European Union border is the waters of the English Channel; the only somewhat comparable land border is between Spain and the British territory of Gibraltar.

The British government has sought to reassure border residents that their concerns are being heard. “Nobody wants to return to the borders of the past,” Prime Minister Theresa May said in January, pledging to maintain the so-called Common Travel Area, which allows citizens of the United Kingdom and the republic to travel back and forth without being subject to passport controls.

But Ms. May’s words have convinced few people here. One of the prime motivations for Brexit was Britain’s desire to reestablish sovereignty and retake control of its borders. People who live on either side of the divide wonder how Britain can possibly expect to achieve both things--put in a new hard border with Europe while maintaining the current openness.

They say, too, that easy statements from Westminster ignore hundreds of years of complicated history and show a profound failure to understand the intense emotions that Brexit has stirred up in a region scarred by the past.

Londonderry, for instance, is a predominantly Catholic city in a majority Protestant region with a long and bitter history of violent sectarian conflict. Ancient problems can seem very close to the surface here. But in recent years--and most dramatically since the enactment, in 1999, of the peace accord known as the Good Friday agreement--the city has made a remarkable turnaround.

Few people make a big deal now about the once life-or-death question of what to call the city: Londonderry, its official name and the one Protestants traditionally prefer, or Derry, the Catholics’ favored name and the one by which it is generally known. Reflecting that both sides have a point, government organizations (and the BBC) have succumbed to practicality and often write it as “Derry/Londonderry.”

“There’s no trouble here anymore,” said Shauna McClenaghan, a civic leader in Inishowen, a nearby area of the republic that is intimately connected to Londonderry politically and culturally, despite being across the international border. “Derry’s just a city.”

Gerry Lynn, an amateur historian who leads tours at the Guildhall, the historic downtown building where the City Council meets, unleashed a condensed version of more than 1,000 extremely complex years of Irish history by way of explaining how far the country, and the region, have come since the Troubles (not to mention the 1600s).

“This city, this country, is like a woman who has given birth,” Mr. Lynn said. “All the trauma, the pain and the fighting are over. We’ve come out of the Troubles--out of black and white and into color.”

Now buses full of tourists from China and South America pour in to admire the 17th-century wall that surrounds the city, whose Protestant residents are still proud that it was never breached by Catholic forces during the Siege of Derry, in 1689. In 2013, the city became the United Kingdom’s first City of Culture.

In 2011, a pedestrian Peace Bridge, costing 14 million pounds, or about $21.7 million, and financed in large part by European money, was built over the River Foyle, connecting the mostly Catholic city center to the more Protestant Waterside section in the east.

“Everyone’s so content with the peace we have here, and nobody really makes too much fuss about the politics except the politicians,” said Daphne Wilson, 50, who was ambling across the bridge the other day.

Though she voted for Brexit, she believes that free movement back and forth has helped the two sides feel like part of a greater whole.

So does Toni Forrester, the chief executive of the chamber of commerce in Letterkenny, County Donegal, next door in the republic. “We’ve worked so hard and so closely together to get cross-border cooperation working,” she said.

As an example, she mentioned a new medical-imaging center in Londonderry that is open to patients from the republic. “You can have a heart attack in Donegal and be treated in Derry,” she said.

Community leaders worry that much of the delicate progress of the last couple of decades--the softening of entrenched prejudices, the gradual moves toward reconciliation--could be shattered by the reintroduction of an us-versus-them mentality that a harder border would bring.

Ms. McClenaghan was chatting over a cup of coffee at a cafe in Bridgend, at the southern end of the Inishowen peninsula. The border with Northern Ireland was just down the road, near an intersection that already snarls up and slows down at rush hour.

“What’s going to happen to traffic if there’s a hard border?” she asked.

Among other logistical awkwardnesses, the impractical way the island is divided means that unless you take a three- or four-hour detour through western Ireland, you cannot drive from Inishowen to Dublin without crossing the border at least twice.

Back at the Guildhall, Mr. Lynn, the tour guide, said that having come this far, people in the city had no desire to return to the way things were before. “History has to be history,” he said. “It has to be left in the past.”