#the only reason season 4 is so much worse is that he can’t feign ignorance about taking statements
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i-will-change-this-someday · 3 months ago
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Something that keeps nagging at me is, why did Jon continue to take statements?
I’m not talking about season four. In episode 120 it is revealed that Jon gets dreams of the statements, and in episode 114, Daisy asks about his shirt, meaning the dreams weren’t just happening during the coma. (Also 120 states that he’s had these dreams before)
And look, I know Jon loves trying to deny things, he spent the entirety of season 1 doing just that, but he’s not stupid; no one would think “hm, I’ve been getting dreams of the live statements, where I watch them live through their trauma again and I’m turning into something not quite human, probably just a coincidence. Nothing to worry about.” So why does he continue to take live statements?
Because even if Jon doesn’t know that the other person shares the dream, why would he want to keep dreaming them? Because he enjoys it. He’s not suddenly more “monstrous” in season 4, taking strangers statements, it wasn’t like he suddenly started making these selfish decisions, he already was.
I’ve seen a lot of people say that Jon doesn’t become an avatar until season 4, but, to me, he already was one, his choice in episode 121 is more about becoming the Archivist not an avatar of the Eye. Because in season 3 he can already compel people, he can already Know things, and he is already enjoying people’s fear. He plainly tells Gerry that he likes compelling people.
So, I think, Jon enjoys taking peoples statements, and he enjoys watching their dreams, because he doesn’t have a choice. Jon admits that he thinks he’s losing himself to the Eye:
“ARCHIVIST
Avatars! But they end up getting these abilities, and they lose a lot of their self. Sometimes all of it.
GEORGIE
And you think… that’s what’s happening to you?
ARCHIVIST
Yes. Yes. The Institute serves one of these beings.”
The Eye took a part of him, and now he has to enjoy others’ suffering, he still feels immense guilt for his actions, but as Helen said “When has your guilt, or your sadness, or your hand-wringing ever actually stopped you from doing what it wants?”
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elixir448 · 5 years ago
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Good Girls 3x03 Thoughts
Right. Well. I’ve kind of been stalling with writing this post just because the fandom is so divided over this episode. This is just my opinion obviously.
Overall, I enjoyed the episode. While I certainly didn’t love certain plot devices that were utilised, I can’t say I necessarily hated them either, which is...interesting.
Opening Scene
Oh my god. OH MY GOD. What an amazing scene. Christina and Manny are FIRE and they killed it!! I have never ever seen two actors with this much on-screen chemistry and I am basically 100% sure that I never will again, which is amazing but also sucks haha.
Rio is just his pettiest, best little shit self in this scene haha. The way he starts just casually asking about her kids and about Jane being the super star forward of the team. I NEED MORE JANE AND MARCUS AS BESTIES RIGHT NOW.
The way Beth just stares at him with those big, blue eyes and then glances away and around them at times. Her terrified, shocked silence. Gosh, Christina managed to convey so much despite only saying two words in the entire scene; she said everything with her face and eyes, her posture and the way her shoulders were set so that she was leaning slightly away from Rio.
The fact that Rio kept the freaking bullets she shot him with, the way he spend a few seconds sorting through them in his hands and knows which one is which, the way he kissed the first bullet. You cannot tell me that he hasn’t had those bullets with him sometimes, that he didn’t take them out in his hotel room and think about Beth, what they were and what she had done to him. Jesus. That’s literally all I can think about now. You know what I need now that the writers brought back the bullets in such an amazing way? THE PEARLS!
Gosh, the way Rio said Don’t. Do. That. The fear was very real in that moment and it felt so jarring; I was kind of thrown back to the scene in 1x08, where Rio grabs Beth by the back of her neck and touches her for the first time. This is the first time he has touched her since his ‘resurrection’ and it’s suddenness  was kind of similar to 1x08. 
Throughout this entire scene, you can just tell that Rio’s thought about this moment so many times, that he’s thought about how he wants to make her suffer, go through some mental anguish for what she did. He couldn’t just shoot her as she got out of her car, in an impersonal manner, or get somebody else to do it. It definitely would have been easier and more successful. But they have history now and it’s too personal and I love that we can feel that in this scene.
“And then you gotta wait for it and, trust me, that’s, that’s just way worse”. Oh my gosh, Rio’s face, his almost manic laughter and smile, the way it turns into a grimace. The shaky cam. THE SHAKY CAM. I have no clue who was responsible for it but the shaky camera only served to emphasise Rio’s turmoil, his fury and his disgust. 
But then as soon as all that turmoil and emotion become obvious, he doubles down and adopts a faux gentle manner again, with his voice becoming soft and placating, his arm around the back of his chair and stroking her hair so gently away from her face. I love that we were all thinking about how face and hair touches wouldn’t be back for a while. But nope. Rio’s out here destroying us all.
And then he stands up and says let’s get this over with and we get a shot of Beth’s face as she looks down, with Rio just standing on the periphery of the screen, hovering around her. I am in love with that shot. To me, it’s so representative of what Rio has been to Beth since they met and started orbiting around one another, never quite able to drift awat from one another. His presence just hangs around her and, even when he isn’t in a scene, Rio casts a very long shadow over Beth’s life and he’s a constant presence, even in her solo scenes. I feel like that is something this season has really doubled down on, whether it’s Beth thinking about what she’s done, interacting with Marcus and Rhea, looking at pictures of fathers and sons, standing and airing her thoughts about death to customers, making light of Rio’s death with the girls and Dean, emulating him and trying to think like him, teaching Annie lessons about being taken advantage of by criminals just like he taught her. Gosh, I think we’d be hard-pressed to find a Beth scene where Rio’s presence isn’t looming over her and I LOVE IT, especially since they’ve had so few on-screen moments together so far.
You can see the split second where Beth decides to lie about being pregnant. Like I said, I don’t love that this is being utilised as a plot device but at the same time I’m not as averse to it as I thought I would be during hiatus. I think part of the reason is that, like I said in the 3x02 thoughts post, Beth can be ruthlessly pragmatic and this is a highly duplicitous, terrible thing to lie about but, in such a desperate situation, it feels very Beth. God, she’s a mess.
I geuinely believe that Rio might have actually killed her had she not lied about being pregnant and Beth knew that. So I get it. I think now that Rio’s being forced to spend more time around Beth, it’s going to make it so much harder to kill her. Like Manny said in his interview “they hate each other but they want to be with each other”. Rio’s probably spent ages nurturing the hatred, fury and betrayal he feels. But once he’s forced to be around her again, I think it’s just going to remind him of all the ways he was attracted to her and genuinely liked her, of their messy history but history nonetheless, of all the ways she looked at him. It’s going to be so painful!!!!
Also, does anybody know what music is playing in the bar? I literally cannot find it anywhere! It’s not on Tunefind or on the season 3 Spotify playlist.
Beth and Dean
Ewwwwwwwwww. Hahahahaha. Omg. The writers did that. They cut away from Rio’s face to Beth and Dean having sex. I just about died.
This episode was such an interesting one for Beth and Dean’s relationship and really served to emphasise that Dean cannot read Beth anymore. She clearly was not enjoying the sex, was doing it with a specific purpose in mind and he just did not care because he was enjoying it too much. It makes me wonder if Dean was used to this emotional and ‘physical’ distance with Beth when they were having sex before Jane was born. The parallel of Beth grabbing Dean’s neck to her grabbing Rio’s neck in 2x04 was so good, especially when you just look at her face in this scene. I went back to watch the bathroom scene in 2x04 haha. I had to cleanse my mind.
Beth is clearly trying her best to be into it, with all the toys and acrobatics she’s having to use to even feign interest. The way that she can’t say that she loves Dean, the slow movement of the camera backwards as Dean walks away, serving to emphasise the distance between them.
I know a lot of people hated that Dean had so much screen time in this episode and, while I think the show could benefit from a little less, I actually kind of loved the scene where he’s out for a run and is working out. It was super funny with the way the scene cut between his blissful, sexed out face working out to  Beth frantically checking if there’s any chance she could be pregnant. He’s clearly living his best life and Beth’s trying to further her own agenda. She’s been using him. Like a warm body. A sperm bank.
I saw someone point out the parallel between Dean lying about cancer, paying a doctor to help him, and Beth lying about being pregnant, with a doctor ultimately helping her. And it really is such an interesting parallel because we view both actions so differently. I for one think that what Beth is doing in this episode is horrible but I feel like the fundamental thing that separates her actions from Dean’s is that Beth is literally fighting to preserve her life. Dean just wanted back into the house, to hold onto the idyllic life he had carved out with his stepford wife at home and his chick on the side at work. Does that absolve Beth of her actions? Absolutely not. Does it separate her from Dean, even a little bit? Yes. Are they basically as bad as each other? Yes, but in very different ways. 
I am hopeful that the fake pregnancy storyline will end within the next few episodes and that Beth either admits that she isn’t pregnant or Rio finds out himself. But by that point, there’s something else, work-related, that forces Rio, or encourages him, to let her live and to work together again. Gosh, my dream scenario would be Beth screaming at Rio “We both know I’m not pregnant!” but then he doesn’t kill her because there’s a reason why it would be best to keep her alive, like the counterfeit cash or something else crime-related. I do genuinely believe that this storyline won’t continue throughout the entire season, especially since Beth quite clearly says that her lie will only by her 3, maybe 4, months. And look, I know the timeline on the show is a mess. I’ve decided to ignore the inconsistencies because I honestly just don’t care too much and I’d rather not get stressed and frustrated over it.
I loved the argument between Beth and Dean. It was so real and so well done. Beth’s hesitant justification, that getting pregnant “not the worst thing”. In this particular scene, Beth’s actions are the reason for the argument but, as the audience, none of us sympahtise with Dean either. These are two people, who have both done terrible things to each other and to other people, having an arguement about what they want. Dean’s actions are the reason they can’t afford to have any more kids but it’s not like Beth wants anymore either, which has been made clear by her arc over the past two seasons.
In this scene, Dean tells the truth, he doesn’t want anymore kids and Beth continues to lie. Even with this very ‘real’ arguement, she can’t have a discussion with Dean and she hasn’t ever been able to; she becomes defensive and attacks the choices Dean made during their marriage. It’s interesting because while Dean has been Beth’s problem for a while, he’s not really the problem in this scene. Beth lying to Rio is the real problem. Regardless, Dean brushes off Beth’s comment with a “here we go”, just like he did when Beth called him out for cheating in 2x06, to which we responded with “oh, come on”. I’m not gonna lie. Despite knowing that what Beth is doing is so wrong, it felt pretty good to see Dean taken down a notch, where he realises that Beth really just does not care for him as a partner (sexually or emotionally) anymore, just like that scene where she brutally says that she just likes having sex with Rio to emasculate Dean.    
The emotional and mental distance between Beth and Dean is further emphasised by Dean feeling that their relationship felt like them again, even though all that had changed was them having sex again. Almost like that’s all he values in a relationship.
I’m kind of confused by everyone saying that the writers are trying to fix their marriage when it seem really clear that Beth and Dean’s relationship has basically been torn at the seams, with the only stitch being the kids now.
Dean and Gayle
Not gonna pretend. I’m not really feeling this storyline. I don’t hate it but I don’t love it either. I’m kind of just indifferent towards it.
In this episode, we see Dean be tempted by Gayle’s offer but ultimately reject it, stating that he wants to focus on his marriage. Gayle, of course, knows that Dean is married but doesn’t care, which says... a lot.
Dean dyes his hair in this episode and it looks ridiculous. I 100% prefer Matthew Lillard with grey streaks haha. That being said, it’s not actually completely clear to me why he dyes his hair and I think that was also purposeful:
1. Is it because of his new-found confidence and bliss, living his best middle-aged male life now that he and Beth are having sex again?
or
2. Is it because he feels confident following Gayle’s offer and is looking forward to something “different” (which is how he describes sex with other women in 2x05)?
I think it’s interesting that the show is tackling bullying in the workplace. I don’t necessaily love that Dean is the victim, as I find it hard to sympathise with his character and I also feel like I don’t want to see him put in a position of vulnerability if that makes sense because I don’t want to feel bad for his character, who had sex with women at Boland Motors who were inherently vulnerable due to their positions as employee. I get what the writers are trying to do, placing him in the same position that others were in at his workplace, but there are just too many barriers stopping me from wanting to feel bad for him. That being said, I think this is an important topic to discuss in the real world because workplace bullying, sexual harassment and blackmail are such big issues. And anybody can be the perpetrator. 
Stan and Krystal
I am pretty sure that Krystal is one of my favourite side characters on this show, which is saying a lot since I basically love all of the side characters, like JT, Tyler, Mary Pat, Lucy. Say what you want about the show and its flaws but the introduction of side characters is not one of them.
I don’t know how many times I’ve said this (pretty sure I keep saying it) but I really want Stan and Krystal to be besties.
Annie’s Therapy
I feel like this particular storyline is still finding it’s feet but I’m excited to see where it goes. In this episode, Annie mainly had to contend with the relationship that she with Beth, who is not just her older sister but has also been her caregiver for most of their lives. It also deals with something that has clearly been a sticking point for Annie for a while now, which is the fact that Beth kind of runs their 3-woman show and ‘calls the shots’. It’s interesting because Annie has had a couple of good ideas over the past 2 seasons but the reality is that Beth is the one who has crossed all the lines that Annie and Ruby haven’t. It’s Beth who gets high on this life and can’t live without it anymore. And it’s Beth who ultimately feels the most responsible for the messes that the three girls get into. She was willing to go to prison in the season 2 finale because she felt responsible for what happened over the past 2 seasons. In my mind, this is what separates Beth from Annie and Ruby.
In this episode, Annie and Beth basically have a quasi power struggle, for example when Beth tells the mover that he can leave but Annie tells him not to. Ruby’s face as she sits between Beth and Annie on the bench and listens to them argue was hilarious!
I love how confused Ruby is by Annie questioning Beth. It’s not just because Ruby has Beth’s back, it’s because it logically makes sense for Beth to deal with the mover, since she was the one who hired him. I’ve seen a lot of stuff floating around on Tumblr, about how other characters are being used to prop up Beth and, while I respect that opinion, I emphatically disagree. I feel like this season has made it so clear that Beth has not been absolved of any of her actions. Not even a little bit. This feels very purposeful on the writers’ part and I’ve written a little more about this in the section below about Rhea and The Clinic (+ Beth and Rio).
Ultimately, Annie comes to feel bad about the fact that she was giving Beth a ‘hard time’, recognising that Beth is under a lot of pressure. Like I said before, I’ve seen some posts about how other characters’ arcs are being sacrificed in order to justify Beth’s thoughts and feelings and that’s a fair enough opinion. I just don’t see it myself. Annie loves Beth and, yes, she gets frustrated with Beth controlling the show and making mistakes that affect all of them but ultimatly they’re sisters. So yes, Annie can call Beth out for all of her mistakes but she’ll also always have her back and empathise with her. As for the broader metaphor being used by Annie’s therapist, I really just think that Annie needed to fully realise that Beth’s actions are not, and have never been, selfish when it comes to her and Ruby. It’s always been from a place of love and maybe it is misguided and too protective sometimes but it’s out of love nonetheless.
I love, love, love the “Auntie Beth” scene, where Annie clarifies took care of her growing up.
The Mover (The Girls’ ‘Employee’ / ‘Partner’)
I love this character. I think he’s such a fun addition and I’m so curious to see what happens with him. Of course, we got the shot of him gagged and beaten up in the season 3 trailer and I’m fairly certain we will get that scene in the next episode or in episode 5. Perhaps it’s Rio and his guys who hold him hostage and beat him up and Beth is taken to him? The spoilers during hiatus revealed that Rio is going to shoot somebody in a van, in front of the girls. With how much this guy talked about his van and how loud his van looks, the fact that Stan and Ruby are saving up to get the van, all the times it was mentioned in this episode, I can’t help but wonder if Rio kills the mover in his van? Before this episode, I thought it would be Boomer but now I’m wondering if Rio actually kills the mover. I’ll be sad to him go if that’s the case.
Rhea and The Clinic (+ Beth and Rio)
As mentioned above, Beth has not been absolved of any of her actions in this season and I think this has been a purposeful move on the writers’ part:
The introduction of Rhea and Marcus means we get to know some very real characters who have been hurt by the absence of Rio in their lives, in other words they have been hurt by Beth’s actions. In the season 2 finale, she ‘murdered’ a father.
• The very purposeful scene where Beth stares at Marcus running away and at a picture of a father with his son. She can’t escape her own thoughts and guilt. There are reminders everywhere, even when she isn’t around Rio’s son.
• The moral dilemma presented by Rhea’s cheque, which Beth agonises over for a whole night and endeavours to pay back as soon as possible. Beth knows she’s a bad person who’s doing bad things
• Beth clearly states in this episode all the reasons why her approaching Rhea was wrong. She literally lists them all out, that it was selfish, creepy and messed up. It’s literally what we, the audience, have been thinking ever since the news during hiatus that Beth would be friends with Rhea in the new season.
• Beth’s pregnancy lie in this episode has also placed Rhea in a terrible position, placing her at the centre of a lie created to fool the father of her child.
Like I said, I don’t love the fake pregnancy storyline but I can appreciate Beth and Rio in an OBGYN clinic. He was so smiley with that pregnant lady who literally just did not clock how scared and uncomfortable Beth was and how insincere Rio was being. He was such a little shit in this entire segment and so gleeful while smiling at Beth, probably feeling 100% confident that she’s not pregnant. Airing out his and Beth’s dirty laundry with the doctor, regarding the date she conceived. Please, please, please do not let that be the last reference to the bedroom scene in 2x09. I need all the references and a flashback scene please and thank you.
It was genuinely so funny to see him look so intently at the ultrasound scan, like wtf she’s preggers?! Lol. But then that look he gave Beth, just before she very slightly smiled at him, where he looks at her with about 10,000 emotions on his face. Gosh, that shot brought me crashing all the way back down. Manny is a brilliant actor. I don’t even know what was on his face, a bunch of emotions that are practically unreadable yet on one of the most open facial expressions we’ve seen from Rio so far. You’re pregnant? You weren’t lying? You are lying? You fucked that husband of yours? What did you do? Why did you shoot me? I hate you but is it enough? I can’t kill you now? Right, I’m going to stop now.
The throwback to season 1 Rio, always on his phone and acting indifferent towards Beth and the girls was great
Also, Beth had me shook in this episode. She’s unbelievably gorgeous.
And to the person who pointed out the fractured artwork between Beth and Rio. You genius. What awesome symbolism and set design!
The Ending
Oh my gosh. I loved this ending. It was an awesome, fun cliffhanger. I cannot believe his real name is Mick (I’m really hoping to learn that his gang name is Demon in this season). From Carlos Aviles’ posts, it looks like we’ll be seeing a fair amount of him this season; at least, I’m hopeful we’ll see him more. We’ve already got a sneak peak centred around him being super polite and practically besties with Beth’s neighbour haha.
I’m super excited and optimistic for 3x04. I’ll l be watching it in basically 24 hours, as I have to be up early for uni and work and stuff and won’t be able to watch until I get home. Cheers to all the spoilers that I will try to avoid but give into eventually!
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flauntpage · 7 years ago
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The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let's Measure Legs
1. Eric Gordon Has Been Great, Chris Paul Can Make Him Better
Eric Gordon entered the league as a scorer who could shoot. As the years went on, injuries hit, his function on different teams began to change, and he transformed into a shooter who could score. But this year, with a spike in usage and his points per 36 minutes average at a career high, Gordon is balancing the two labels splendidly.
Chris Paul is expected to return on Thursday night, which will bump Gordon back to the bench and diminish his role just a bit. But even if Gordon can't average more than 22 points per game the rest of the way, Paul’s brilliant ability to lull defenses to sleep will help Gordon find even better options from behind the three-point line and at the rim (where he’s shooting a ridiculous 66 percent—up 10 points from last season).
Gordon has slayed defenses with pull-up threes, nailing an unsustainably awesome 41.5 percent of them on more attempts than everyone except James Harden and Damian Lillard. Those opportunities will dwindle, assuming he’s always on the court with Harden and/or Paul from this point forward.
But if we imagine Gordon assuming a similar role to what J.J. Redick had as Paul’s backcourt mate on the Los Angeles Clippers, all of a sudden Houston’s offense becomes even more dynamic in a half-court setting than it already is.
The Rockets already have actions designed to provide Gordon with solid catch-and-shoot looks, and he’s a pro’s pro at shaking his defender and creating separation before the pass hits his hands. But Paul sets the table in a way few others can. Here’s one example: a baseline inbounds play wherein Paul casually takes a dribble handoff and feigns like he’s going to flip the ball to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute over on the weakside.
Instead, in one motion he spins back to Redick (who pops off DeAndre Jordan’s screen) and feeds him for an open three. Defenses have to be alert during every second Paul has the ball. He’s a magician who thrives off misdirection. As the Rockets try to fit him into their offense (which already ranks fourth in points per half-court play), guys like Gordon will recalibrate their current responsibilities. It’s not an easy process, but Paul eventually will make life easier for everyone involved.
2. Dear Utah Jazz: Please Tank
The Utah Jazz are flailing in the face of a few unlucky events that have struck over the past few months. They were spurned by Gordon Hayward in free agency, watched Dante Exum suffer another soul-crushing preseason injury, and most recently lost Rudy Gobert for 4-6 weeks to a bruised right tibia. Even though Utah has been better on both sides of the floor when their franchise player is off the court, no team in the West (except to nobody's surprise the San Antonio Spurs) can compete without an All-NBA contributor in the lineup for an extended period.
The bad news gets worse after a quick glance at Utah's schedule, which turns into The Perfect Storm during Gobert’s expected absence. The easiest, broadest, and most annoying response here is to call for the Jazz to tank, but assuming they're ready to face the harsh realities of an impending rebuild, it's also the correct response.
Already submarined by an offense that can’t generate anything substantial sans Hayward, Utah’s focus now that making the playoffs is incredibly unlikely should be morphing into sellers at the trade deadline (moving on from Derrick Favors’ expiring contract is what most point to as a no-brainer, but what could they get for Rodney Hood or Joe Ingles?).
They own all their draft picks and have one of the 10 oldest rosters in the league. This is a perfect chance to tear down a group that's going nowhere and build around a Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, 2018 lotto pick core. It's not fun, but opportunity is knocking on Utah’s door; to ignore it now could cost them down the line.
3. Why Is Effort Still An Issue In Cleveland?
Kevin Love has spent the last three seasons as a scapegoat. Whenever things look bad in Cleveland, Option A is to fire up the trade machine and scrounge around for semi-realistic transactions that would theoretically improve the Cavaliers' championship chances and rid them of Love.
Even though they play, at times, like a grotesque abomination, the Annual Round of Kevin Love Trade Speculation has yet to pick up steam for a few reasons: A) integral Cavs aren’t healthy, B) Love’s value isn’t nearly what it used to be, and C) it’s not even Thanksgiving. Cleveland’s defense is atrocious whether Love is on the floor or not, as a standalone center or beside another beefy body in the frontcourt.
This isn't Love's fault, and there are some things he can’t help. Athletic limitations put a hard cap on how effective he can be trying to prevent the other team from scoring. That, combined with a supporting cast of mostly below-average individual defenders, makes his margin for error paper thin.
For the most part, he makes up for it with intelligence and admirable effort—rotating over to take a charge against Dwight Howard, as Love did on Wednesday night, deserves a medal. Knowing opponents plan to attack him relentlessly in the pick-and-roll, he shuffles his feet and executes whatever coverage Ty Lue has deemed appropriate. But for whatever reason, one seemingly inconsequential and unrelated sequence during last week’s loss to the Houston Rockets stands out in my mind.
Midway through the first quarter, the Rockets deflected a pass and sent the ball rolling towards Cleveland’s baseline. As its intended recipient, Love watched it go out of bounds instead of sprinting to pick it up. It was a simple lack of hustle that forced Cleveland to inbound the ball from beneath its own basket, and allowed Houston to set up its defense with a full-court press. Here’s what happened next:
Harden went on to draw a foul at the rim. This criticism might come off as a bit harsh; on its face it has nothing to do with Cleveland’s wretched defense. But effort matters! And moments like this one are a symptom of bad habits that will come back to bite the Cavaliers when it matters most.
4. Lauri Markkanen’s Wrists Make All The Difference
Everyone who made fun of the Chicago Bulls (my hand is raised) for not just trading Jimmy Butler, but also selecting Lauri Markkanen—every draft prognosticator who I read leading into the 2017 draft's punching bag—has to do 25 pushups.
Even more impressive than the rookie’s startling per game averages (14 points and seven rebounds isn’t bad!) is a shot release that’s faster than a snapping rubber band. Only four players in the league are launching more threes per game with a touch time between 0-2 seconds.
A seven-footer who can shoot threes is still one of the finest luxuries any team can have. The space he figures to provide for a very long time will make life easier for guards like Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine as they come off high screens, and, down the line, could even make Chicago a more attractive free agency destination for ball-handlers who enjoy wide driving lanes. (According to Synergy Sports, Markkanen is currently the NBA’s most efficient pick-and-pop scorer. Anyone who’s ever watched J.J. Barea play basketball with Dirk Nowitzki knows how enjoyable this can be.)
Beyond the ancillary benefits, Markkanen’s quick release sharpens how convenient he can truly be. Unlike uniquely useful yet limited stretch bigs like Kelly Olynyk—someone who will pump fake his way into a phone booth whenever a defender’s closeout gets too close for comfort—Chicago’s rookie combines his height with crackling wrists and enough confidence to fire away even when he isn’t wide open. That’s all very nice to see, and could speed up Chicago's rebuild.
5. Jaylen Brown’s Closeouts Are Hysterically Passive Aggressive
The Celtics allow 99.1 points per 100 possessions when Jaylen Brown is off the court. In almost any other context that number would be a bad thing. But in Boston, where the best defense in the NBA is currently being played, that’s the highest on/off defensive rating for any individual on the team. (The Celtics only allow 94.2 points per 100 possessions with Brown in the game.)
Even if his strength, length, quickness, and ability to walk on water theoretically makes people think he’s one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball, the 21-year-old is still a work in progress who hasn't quite reached the All-Defensive team level he is striving for. He’s fouling less than a year ago, but is still antsy on the ball, prone to falling for ball fakes; all too eager to show off his leaping ability when staying grounded is the better call.
Here’s what Brown had to say after he got a key stop against DeMar DeRozan at the end of Boston’s win last Sunday: “He’ll pump fake and pump fake and pump fake until he gets you off your feet. I’m thinking like, ‘He’s gotta be shooting one of these (bleeps).’ But he’ll keep pump faking and pump faking and pump faking, and you have to do a good job of staying down.”
This leads us to his closeout technique, which, in all honestly, makes me laugh out loud just about every time I see it. Instead of leaning in at a diagonal angle to try and contest the shooter or even block the shot, Brown halts his momentum, bends his knees, and jumps straight in the air, sometimes with both arms stretched high above his head.
On one hand, he eliminates any chance of committing a foul and can’t be condemned for laziness. On the other, I’m not sure this has any impact whatsoever on the shooter—other than him thinking to himself “what the hell is happening right now?”—as he launches the ball. It’s so much effort doing something that probably has no tangible positive impact. It will never not be hilarious. Jaylen for President.
6. I'm (Still) Not A Fan Of Julius Randle
It’s fair to label what Julius Randle is experiencing “a breakout year.” The 22-year-old is averaging 21.1 points and 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, with significant bumps in usage, block percentage, free-throw rate, and True Shooting. All this is promising and nice and may convince one of the league's 29 other teams to draw up a hefty offer sheet this summer.
But even beyond his strange spells of in-game apathy, Randle still doesn’t make any of his teammates better, turns the ball over a ton, and remains prone to clueless mistakes on the defensive end. Despite his new and improved body, bad habits and physical limitations feel like they will forever outweigh all the good he does.
Julius Randle is not a smart defender
Randle's outside shot is still cracked, and it’s unclear what his role/position would be on a good basketball team. A couple years ago I asked former Lakers head coach Byron Scott if he thought about experimenting with Randle at the five. He, somewhat understandably, began his response by laughing out loud. When you’re a big whose range doesn’t extend beyond the paint with a wingspan equal to Nick Young’s, it’s hard to be much help without a very specific cast of supporting skills at your side. Randle is more Kenneth Faried than Draymond Green.
In a fit of curiousity, I looked back at the 2014 draft class just to see how many players I could talk myself into taking ahead of Randle, who was selected seventh overall by the Lakers. I came up with 10 guys. In order of personal preference, they are:
10. Doug McDermott 9. Elfrid Payton 8. Jusuf Nurkic 7. Rodney Hood 6. T.J. Warren 5. Dario Saric 4. Clint Capela 3. Gary Harris 2. Zach LaVine 1. Nikola Jokic
Randle is still extremely young and there’s obviously plenty of time for him to round out the worrisome parts of his game and become a winning player, but so far all he's done is max out on strengths he already possessed.
The fact that Kyle Kuzma has played 159 more minutes in the same number of appearances is quite alarming. According to Cleaning the Glass, L.A.’s Expected Wins total drops by 11 games when Randle is on the court—by far the best number of his career.
(The following take is fresh out of an oven, but I think I’d also prefer Pascal Siakam.)
7. Tobias Harris vs. Robert Covington
Photo by John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
These two aren’t identical, but close enough to make a worthy comparison. They exist as similar 6’9” pivot points who play for a pair of hungry teams in an Eastern Conference. Both are now (wildly) exceeding individual expectations and, in the process, somewhat dramatically elevating their team’s ceiling.
Now here’s a fun question: As two versatile wings with varying yet proportional strengths and weaknesses, who would you rather have?
It literally feels like every time I flip to a Sixers or Pistons game, one of them is about to catch a kick-out pass and nail a three. Only three players have made more threes than Covington this year, and only six—including Covington—have made more than Harris. Also, only three players have been more accurate from beyond the arc than Harris, while just seven are more accurate than Covington. Long story short: Right now they’re two of the best three-point shooters alive.
Covington gets the edge as a defender, but isn’t nearly as effective creating his own shot. Nearly 25 percent fewer of his field goal attempts are unassisted relative to Harris. Covington turns 27 next month and Harris turns 26 this summer. According to Synergy Sports, Harris ranks in the 93rd percentile as an overall offensive weapon, while Covington is 96th. Neither passes the ball.
When you take the average annual salary of Covington’s reported extension, both earn about the same ($15-16 million). It’s hard to choose one over the other, but by roughly 0.5 degrees my personal taste shades towards Covington. Even though he may not have the same offensive impact when his outside shot doesn’t fall at a 50 percent clip, he’s more plug-and-play than Harris, and—debatably—more accepting of his role within his roster’s hierarchy.
Ideally, RoCo would get far more minutes at the four than he’s afforded in Philadelphia, while Harris is able to slide up and take advantage of slower bigs. Here are the numbers if you want to toggle around and see how close they are for yourself.
8. How Does T.J. Warren Do It?
T.J. Warren is a well-rounded offensive basketball player whose primary skill is the willingness to attack in myriad ways. Warren will back cut you to death. He’ll pull up off a high screen. He’ll Eurostep in the open floor. He’ll worm through a maze of screens. He’ll put back a missed jumper (even his own). He’ll post up smaller defenders. He’ll face up against stronger fours.
Very few of these qualities stand out or are aesthetically pleasing, but when jumbled together they work just fine. Phoenix’s offensive rating is 8.7 points per 100 possessions higher when Warren is on the floor, and the team is never more feeble than when he sits, in part because him turning the ball over is a weekly occurrence. (Warren doesn’t pass.)
The lack of three-point shooting is a scarlett letter, but this year he's still exploded for 40 points and 35 points in a pair of wins against the Washington Wizards and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively. Warren isn’t a minus defender, either. He moves around, hustles, and generally seems to understand how to execute Phoenix’s scheme.
It’s unclear how this diverse skill-set would fare in an environment where winning games is a priority, but until then Warren continues to stand out as a unique being in an increasingly homogenous league. Applaud him.
9. Believe It Or Not, The Kings Did Something Nice
The Sacramento Kings have stumbled into their own tier of incompetence, slightly below the Atlanta Hawks (a team that beat them by 46 points on Wednesday night), Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls, and Phoenix Suns. They shoot themselves in the foot on a regular basis—if Dave Joerger has to watch Willie Cauley-Stein leap out of position trying to steal an entry pass one more time he may pack back on all the weight he lost over the summer—and are less talented than their opponent every single night.
But this is the NBA, where even the worst of the worst is still the best of the best. Here’s one example, where Sacramento’s offensive execution trips up the Washington Wizards.
It's a standard split cut, but instead of coming together and then breaking off in seemingly random directions, George Hill spontaneously dives into the paint before the Wizards have time to deal with their assignment. John Wall and Brad Beal don’t realize they have to switch until it’s too late, and it forces Marcin Gortat to lean in the wrong direction. Garrett Temple breaks free for the open three. Good job, Kings. Good job.
10. Let's Measure Legs
Last Saturday night, I sat down to watch a few games with a good friend of mine who only casually dabbles in NBA basketball. About 20 minutes into Bucks/Lakers, he made an astute and obvious point: Players with long legs have a clear advantage over players with short legs, even if they pencil in at the exact same height.“Brandon Ingram’s waist is where his belly button should be.”
This isn't a new discovery, but it made me think about how wingspan has superseded height in the eyes of talent evaluators around the league. Along the same lines, do teams measure leg length the same way? I don’t know the exact answer—I’d guess there’s a 99% chance NBA teams do in fact measure legs from the waist down—but what I do know is the information isn’t listed on NBA.com, where everything from wingspan to hand width to body fat percentage is calculated. Same goes for DraftExpress.
Maybe the length of a player’s legs doesn’t matter, and useful information regarding how much ground they’re able to cover is already quantified with shuttle runs and lane agility drills. But given the obvious advantage someone like Ingram or Giannis Antetokounmpo has on drives to the rim, maybe stride-spans (a working title; I’m also a fan of glide-span) should be added to the long list of characteristics used to evaluate prospects and players.
11. On/Off Numbers Still Hate Avery Bradley
Photo by Aaron Doster - USA TODAY Sports
For the third straight year, Avery Bradley’s team is significantly better on defense when he isn’t on the floor. There are caveats and explanations—Bradley’s help defense is ineffective, he’s perpetually undersized, every starter on the Pistons has poor on/off numbers right now, etc.—but it’s still strange because Avery Bradley is the last person alive I’d want guarding me in a pickup game.
Last season, Bradley’s Real Plus-Minus ranked one spot below Lou Williams—someone opposing offenses intentionally abuse on a regular basis—and this year he’s 67th at his own position. This continues to be one of the more confusing stats vs. eye test battles in the NBA.
12. The New York Knicks Are the NBA’s Most Likable Team
I know everyone is talking about how fun the New York Knicks are, but speaking as someone who’s seen them play in person multiple times this season, I can confirm that yes, the rumors are true. They are an energetic, fresh, and endearing group, with spunky personality, youthful ignorance, and just enough talent to make it all feel respectable.
When you watch them play, you aren’t thinking about the yolk that’s permanently smeared across James Dolan’s forehead, or the disheartening cap sheet that serves as a reminder of their longstanding off-court dysfunction. Instead they play like a snake that’s shed its skin. Jeff Hornacek is liberated to run his own system. Kristaps Porzingis is able to shoot anytime he wants. (The shedding of Carmelo Anthony and Phil Jackson in one offseason has clearly had a profound impact on everyone involved.)
I wrote a couple weeks back that their newfound identity is essentially Porzingis + Putbacks. That’s still true, but their reason for success goes even deeper. Everything revolves around the franchise player. He is Beyonce surrounded by a dozen Kelly Rowlands. It’s a brittle dynamic that doesn’t work without everyone (including Tim Hardaway Jr.) embracing a back seat. From Lance Thomas to Enes Kanter to Jarrett Jack to Doug McDermott, everybody has.
They screen for each other. They drive and move the ball. They siege retreating defenses in transition. Their offense is an endless reel dish and swish, prompted by a group of castaways, retreads, and rookies. (Your personal definition of "loud noise" will forever change after you witness Frank Ntilikina make a jump shot inside Madison Square Garden.)
There will be time for big-picture analysis, and questions remain as to how they can/should build around Porzingis. But for the moment, let’s all enjoy this team for what it is: the NBA’s Cinderella.
The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let's Measure Legs published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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amtushinfosolutionspage · 7 years ago
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The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let’s Measure Legs
1. Eric Gordon Has Been Great, Chris Paul Can Make Him Better
Eric Gordon entered the league as a scorer who could shoot. As the years went on, injuries hit, his function on different teams began to change, and he transformed into a shooter who could score. But this year, with a spike in usage and his points per 36 minutes average at a career high, Gordon is balancing the two labels splendidly.
Chris Paul is expected to return on Thursday night, which will bump Gordon back to the bench and diminish his role just a bit. But even if Gordon can’t average more than 22 points per game the rest of the way, Paul’s brilliant ability to lull defenses to sleep will help Gordon find even better options from behind the three-point line and at the rim (where he’s shooting a ridiculous 66 percent—up 10 points from last season).
Gordon has slayed defenses with pull-up threes, nailing an unsustainably awesome 41.5 percent of them on more attempts than everyone except James Harden and Damian Lillard. Those opportunities will dwindle, assuming he’s always on the court with Harden and/or Paul from this point forward.
But if we imagine Gordon assuming a similar role to what J.J. Redick had as Paul’s backcourt mate on the Los Angeles Clippers, all of a sudden Houston’s offense becomes even more dynamic in a half-court setting than it already is.
The Rockets already have actions designed to provide Gordon with solid catch-and-shoot looks, and he’s a pro’s pro at shaking his defender and creating separation before the pass hits his hands. But Paul sets the table in a way few others can. Here’s one example: a baseline inbounds play wherein Paul casually takes a dribble handoff and feigns like he’s going to flip the ball to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute over on the weakside.
Instead, in one motion he spins back to Redick (who pops off DeAndre Jordan’s screen) and feeds him for an open three. Defenses have to be alert during every second Paul has the ball. He’s a magician who thrives off misdirection. As the Rockets try to fit him into their offense (which already ranks fourth in points per half-court play), guys like Gordon will recalibrate their current responsibilities. It’s not an easy process, but Paul eventually will make life easier for everyone involved.
2. Dear Utah Jazz: Please Tank
The Utah Jazz are flailing in the face of a few unlucky events that have struck over the past few months. They were spurned by Gordon Hayward in free agency, watched Dante Exum suffer another soul-crushing preseason injury, and most recently lost Rudy Gobert for 4-6 weeks to a bruised right tibia. Even though Utah has been better on both sides of the floor when their franchise player is off the court, no team in the West (except to nobody’s surprise the San Antonio Spurs) can compete without an All-NBA contributor in the lineup for an extended period.
The bad news gets worse after a quick glance at Utah’s schedule, which turns into The Perfect Storm during Gobert’s expected absence. The easiest, broadest, and most annoying response here is to call for the Jazz to tank, but assuming they’re ready to face the harsh realities of an impending rebuild, it’s also the correct response.
Already submarined by an offense that can’t generate anything substantial sans Hayward, Utah’s focus now that making the playoffs is incredibly unlikely should be moprhing into sellers at the trade deadline (moving on from Derrick Favors’ expiring contract is what most point to as a no-brainer, but what could they get for Rodney Hood or Joe Ingles?).
They own all their draft picks and have one of the 10 oldest rosters in the league. This is a perfect chance to tear down a group that’s going nowhere and build around a Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, 2018 lotto pick core. It’s not fun, but opportunity is knocking on Utah’s door; to ignore it now could cost them down the line.
3. Why Is Effort Still An Issue In Cleveland?
Kevin Love has spent the last three seasons as a scapegoat. Whenever things look bad in Cleveland, Option A is to fire up the trade machine and scrounge around for semi-realistic transactions that would theoretically improve the Cavaliers’ championship chances and rid them of Love.
Even though they play, at times, like a grotesque abomination, the Annual Round of Kevin Love Trade Speculation has yet to pick up steam for a few reasons: A) integral Cavs aren’t healthy, B) Love’s value isn’t nearly what it used to be, and C) it’s not even Thanksgiving. Cleveland’s defense is atrocious whether Love is on the floor or not, as a standalone center or beside another beefy body in the frontcourt.
This isn’t Love’s fault, and there are some things he can’t help. Athletic limitations put a hard cap on how effective he can be trying to prevent the other team from scoring. That, combined with a supporting cast of mostly below-average individual defenders, makes his margin for error paper thin.
For the most part, he makes up for it with intelligence and admirable effort—rotating over to take a charge against Dwight Howard, as Love did on Wednesday night, deserves a medal. Knowing opponents plan to attack him relentlessly in the pick-and-roll, he shuffles his feet and executes whatever coverage Ty Lue has deemed appropriate. But for whatever reason, one seemingly inconsequential and unrelated sequence during last week’s loss to the Houston Rockets stands out in my mind.
Midway through the first quarter, the Rockets deflected a pass and sent the ball rolling towards Cleveland’s baseline. As its intended recipient, Love watched it go out of bounds instead of sprinting to pick it up. It was a simple lack of hustle that forced Cleveland to inbound the ball from beneath its own basket, and allowed Houston to set up its defense with a full-court press. Here’s what happened next:
Harden went on to draw a foul at the rim. This criticism might come off as a bit harsh; on its face it has nothing to do with Cleveland’s wretched defense. But effort matters! And moments like this one are a symptom of bad habits that will come back to bite the Cavaliers when it matters most.
4. Lauri Markkanen’s Wrists Make All The Difference
Everyone who made fun of the Chicago Bulls (my hand is raised) for not just trading Jimmy Butler, but also selecting Lauri Markkanen—every draft prognosticator who I read leading into the 2017 draft’s punching bag—has to do 25 pushups.
Even more impressive than the rookie’s startling per game averages (14 points and seven rebounds isn’t bad!) is a shot release that’s faster than a snapping rubber band. Only four players in the league are launching more threes per game with a touch time between 0-2 seconds.
A seven-footer who can shoot threes is still one of the finest luxuries any team can have. The space he figures to provide for a very long time will make life easier for guards like Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine as they come off high screens, and, down the line, could even make Chicago a more attractive free agency destination for ball-handlers who enjoy wide driving lanes. (According to Synergy Sports, Markkanen is currently the NBA’s most efficient pick-and-pop scorer. Anyone who’s ever watched J.J. Barea play basketball with Dirk Nowitzki knows how enjoyable this can be.)
Beyond the ancillary benefits, Markkanen’s quick release sharpens how convenient he can truly be. Unlike uniquely useful yet limited stretch bigs like Kelly Olynyk—someone who will pump fake his way into a phone booth whenever a defender’s closeout gets too close for comfort—Chicago’s rookie combines his height with crackling wrists and enough confidence to fire away even when he isn’t wide open. That’s all very nice to see, and could speed up Chicago’s rebuild.
5. Jaylen Brown’s Closeouts Are Hysterically Passive Aggressive
The Celtics allow 99.1 points per 100 possessions when Jaylen Brown is off the court. In almost any other context that number would be a bad thing. But in Boston, where the best defense in the NBA is currently being played, that’s the highest on/off defensive rating for any individual on the team. (The Celtics only allow 94.2 points per 100 possessions with Brown in the game.)
Even if his strength, length, quickness, and ability to walk on water theoretically makes people think he’s one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball, the 21-year-old is still a work in progress who hasn’t quite reached the All-Defensive team level he is striving for. He’s fouling less than a year ago, but is still antsy on the ball, prone to falling for ball fakes; all too eager to show off his leaping ability when staying grounded is the better call.
Here’s what Brown had to say after he got a key stop against DeMar DeRozan at the end of Boston’s win last Sunday: “He’ll pump fake and pump fake and pump fake until he gets you off your feet. I’m thinking like, ‘He’s gotta be shooting one of these (bleeps).’ But he’ll keep pump faking and pump faking and pump faking, and you have to do a good job of staying down.”
This leads us to his closeout technique, which, in all honestly, makes me laugh out loud just about every time I see it. Instead of leaning in at a diagonal angle to try and contest the shooter or even block the shot, Brown halts his momentum, bends his knees, and jumps straight in the air, sometimes with both arms stretched high above his head.
On one hand, he eliminates any chance of committing a foul and can’t be condemned for laziness. On the other, I’m not sure this has any impact whatsoever on the shooter—other than him thinking to himself “what the hell is happening right now?”—as he launches the ball. It’s so much effort doing something that probably has no tangible positive impact. It will never not be hilarious. Jaylen for President.
6. I’m (Still) Not A Fan Of Julius Randle
It’s fair to label what Julius Randle is experiencing “a breakout year.” The 22-year-old is averaging 21.1 points and 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, with significant bumps in usage, block percentage, free-throw rate, and True Shooting. All this is promising and nice and may convince one of the league’s 29 other teams to draw up a hefty offer sheet this summer.
But even beyond his strange spells of in-game apathy, Randle still doesn’t make any of his teammates better, turns the ball over a ton, and remains prone to clueless mistakes on the defensive end. Despite his new and improved body, bad habits and physical limitations feel like they will forever outweigh all the good he does.
Julius Randle is not a smart defender
Randle’s outside shot is still cracked, and it’s unclear what his role/position would be on a good basketball team. A couple years ago I asked former Lakers head coach Byron Scott if he thought about experimenting with Randle at the five. He, somewhat understandably, began his response by laughing out loud. When you’re a big whose range doesn’t extend beyond the paint with a wingspan equal to Nick Young’s, it’s hard to be much help without a very specific cast of supporting skills at your side. Randle is more Kenneth Faried than Draymond Green.
In a fit of curiousity, I looked back at the 2014 draft class just to see how many players I could talk myself into taking ahead of Randle, who was selected seventh overall by the Lakers. I came up with 10 guys. In order of personal preference, they are:
10. Doug McDermott 9. Elfrid Payton 8. Jusuf Nurkic 7. Rodney Hood 6. T.J. Warren 5. Dario Saric 4. Clint Capela 3. Gary Harris 2. Zach LaVine 1. Nikola Jokic
Randle is still extremely young and there’s obviously plenty of time for him to round out the worrisome parts of his game and become a winning player, but so far all he’s done is max out on strengths he already possessed.
The fact that Kyle Kuzma has played 159 more minutes in the same number of appearances is quite alarming. According to Cleaning the Glass, L.A.’s Expected Wins total drops by 11 games when Randle is on the court—by far the best number of his career.
(The following take is fresh out of an oven, but I think I’d also prefer Pascal Siakam.)
7. Tobias Harris vs. Robert Covington
Photo by John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
These two aren’t identical, but close enough to make a worthy comparison. They exist as similar 6’9” pivot points who play for a pair of hungry teams in an Eastern Conference. Both are now (wildly) exceeding individual expectations and, in the process, somewhat dramatically elevating their team’s ceiling.
Now here’s a fun question: As two versatile wings with varying yet proportional strengths and weaknesses, who would you rather have?
It literally feels like every time I flip to a Sixers or Pistons game, one of them is about to catch a kick-out pass and nail a three. Only three players have made more threes than Covington this year, and only six—including Covington—have made more than Harris. Also, only three players have been more accurate from beyond the arc than Harris, while just seven are more accurate than Covington. Long story short: Right now they’re two of the best three-point shooters alive.
Covington gets the edge as a defender, but isn’t nearly as effective creating his own shot. Nearly 25 percent fewer of his field goal attempts are unassisted relative to Harris. Covington turns 27 next month and Harris turns 26 this summer. According to Synergy Sports, Harris ranks in the 93rd percentile as an overall offensive weapon, while Covington is 96th. Neither passes the ball.
When you take the average annual salary of Covington’s reported extension, both earn about the same ($15-16 million). It’s hard to choose one over the other, but by roughly 0.5 degrees my personal taste shades towards Covington. Even though he may not have the same offensive impact when his outside shot doesn’t fall at a 50 percent clip, he’s more plug-and-play than Harris, and—debatably—more accepting of his role within his roster’s hierarchy.
Ideally, RoCo would get far more minutes at the four than he’s afforded in Philadelphia, while Harris is able to slide up and take advantage of slower bigs. Here are the numbers if you want to toggle around and see how close they are for yourself.
8. How Does T.J. Warren Do It?
T.J. Warren is a well-rounded offensive basketball player whose primary skill is the willingness to attack in myriad ways. Warren will back cut you to death. He’ll pull up off a high screen. He’ll Eurostep in the open floor. He’ll worm through a maze of screens. He’ll put back a missed jumper (even his own). He’ll post up smaller defenders. He’ll face up against stronger fours.
Very few of these qualities stand out or are aesthetically pleasing, but when jumbled together they work just fine. Phoenix’s offensive rating is 8.7 points per 100 possessions higher when Warren is on the floor, and the team is never more feeble than when he sits, in part because him turning the ball over is a weekly occurrence. (Warren doesn’t pass.)
The lack of three-point shooting is a scarlett letter, but this year he’s still exploded for 40 points and 35 points in a pair of wins against the Washington Wizards and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively. Warren isn’t a minus defender, either. He moves around, hustles, and generally seems to understand how to execute Phoenix’s scheme.
It’s unclear how this diverse skill-set would fare in an environment where winning games is a priority, but until then Warren continues to stand out as a unique being in an increasingly homogenous league. Applaud him.
9. Believe It Or Not, The Kings Did Something Nice
The Sacramento Kings have stumbled into their own tier of incompetence, slightly below the Atlanta Hawks (a team that beat them by 46 points on Wednesday night), Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls, and Phoenix Suns. They shoot themselves in the foot on a regular basis—if Dave Joerger has to watch Willie Cauley-Stein leap out of position trying to steal an entry pass one more time he may pack back on all the weight he lost over the summer—and are less talented than their opponent every single night.
But this is the NBA, where even the worst of the worst is still the best of the best. Here’s one example, where Sacramento’s offensive execution trips up the Washington Wizards.
It’s a standard split cut, but instead of coming together and then breaking off in seemingly random directions, George Hill spontaneously dives into the paint before the Wizards have time to deal with their assignment. John Wall and Brad Beal don’t realize they have to switch until it’s too late, and it forces Marcin Gortat to lean in the wrong direction. Garrett Temple breaks free for the open three. Good job, Kings. Good job.
10. Let’s Measure Legs
Last Saturday night, I sat down to watch a few games with a good friend of mine who only casually dabbles in NBA basketball. About 20 minutes into Bucks/Lakers, he made an astute and obvious point: Players with long legs have a clear advantage over players with short legs, even if they pencil in at the exact same height.“Brandon Ingram’s waist is where his belly button should be.”
This isn’t a new discovery, but it made me think about how wingspan has superseded height in the eyes of talent evaluators around the league. Along the same lines, do teams measure leg length the same way? I don’t know the exact answer—I’d guess there’s a 99% chance NBA teams do in fact measure legs from the waist down—but what I do know is the information isn’t listed on NBA.com, where everything from wingspan to hand width to body fat percentage is calculated. Same goes for DraftExpress.
Maybe the length of a player’s legs doesn’t matter, and useful information regarding how much ground they’re able to cover is already quantified with shuttle runs and lane agility drills. But given the obvious advantage someone like Ingram or Giannis Antetokounmpo has on drives to the rim, maybe stride-spans (a working title; I’m also a fan of glide-span) should be added to the long list of characteristics used to evaluate prospects and players.
11. On/Off Numbers Still Hate Avery Bradley
Photo by Aaron Doster – USA TODAY Sports
For the third straight year, Avery Bradley’s team is significantly better on defense when he isn’t on the floor. There are caveats and explanations—Bradley’s help defense is ineffective, he’s perpetually undersized, every starter on the Pistons has poor on/off numbers right now, etc.—but it’s still strange because Avery Bradley is the last person alive I’d want guarding me in a pickup game.
Last season, Bradley’s Real Plus-Minus ranked one spot below Lou Williams—someone opposing offenses intentionally abuse on a regular basis—and this year he’s 67th at his own position. This continues to be one of the more confusing stats vs. eye test battles in the NBA.
12. The New York Knicks Are the NBA’s Most Likable Team
I know everyone is talking about how fun the New York Knicks are, but speaking as someone who’s seen them play in person multiple times this season, I can confirm that yes, the rumors are true. They are an energetic, fresh, and endearing group, with spunky personality, youthful ignorance, and just enough talent to make it all feel respectable.
When you watch them play, you aren’t thinking about the yolk that’s permanently smeared across James Dolan’s forehead, or the disheartening cap sheet that serves as a reminder of their longstanding off-court dysfunction. Instead they play like a snake that’s shed its skin. Jeff Hornacek is liberated to run his own system. Kristaps Porzingis is able to shoot anytime he wants. (The shedding of Carmelo Anthony and Phil Jackson in one offseason has clearly had a profound impact on everyone involved.)
I wrote a couple weeks back that their newfound identity is essentially Porzingis + Putbacks. That’s still true, but their reason for success goes even deeper. Everything revolves around the franchise player. He is Beyonce surrounded by a dozen Kelly Rowlands. It’s a brittle dynamic that doesn’t work without everyone (including Tim Hardaway Jr.) embracing a back seat. From Lance Thomas to Enes Kanter to Jarrett Jack to Doug McDermott, everybody has.
They screen for each other. They drive and move the ball. They siege retreating defenses in transition. Their offense is an endless reel dish and swish, prompted by a group of castaways, retreads, and rookies. (Your personal definition of “loud noise” will forever change after you witness Frank Ntilikina make a jump shot inside Madison Square Garden.)
There will be time for big-picture analysis, and questions remain as to how they can/should build around Porzingis. But for the moment, let’s all enjoy this team for what it is: the NBA’s Cinderella.
The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let’s Measure Legs syndicated from http://ift.tt/2ug2Ns6
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flauntpage · 7 years ago
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The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let's Measure Legs
1. Eric Gordon Has Been Great, Chris Paul Can Make Him Better
Eric Gordon entered the league as a scorer who could shoot. As the years went on, injuries hit, his function on different teams began to change, and he transformed into a shooter who could score. But this year, with a spike in usage and his points per 36 minutes average at a career high, Gordon is balancing the two labels splendidly.
Chris Paul is expected to return on Thursday night, which will bump Gordon back to the bench and diminish his role just a bit. But even if Gordon can't average more than 22 points per game the rest of the way, Paul’s brilliant ability to lull defenses to sleep will help Gordon find even better options from behind the three-point line and at the rim (where he’s shooting a ridiculous 66 percent—up 10 points from last season).
Gordon has slayed defenses with pull-up threes, nailing an unsustainably awesome 41.5 percent of them on more attempts than everyone except James Harden and Damian Lillard. Those opportunities will dwindle, assuming he’s always on the court with Harden and/or Paul from this point forward.
But if we imagine Gordon assuming a similar role to what J.J. Redick had as Paul’s backcourt mate on the Los Angeles Clippers, all of a sudden Houston’s offense becomes even more dynamic in a half-court setting than it already is.
The Rockets already have actions designed to provide Gordon with solid catch-and-shoot looks, and he’s a pro’s pro at shaking his defender and creating separation before the pass hits his hands. But Paul sets the table in a way few others can. Here’s one example: a baseline inbounds play wherein Paul casually takes a dribble handoff and feigns like he’s going to flip the ball to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute over on the weakside.
Instead, in one motion he spins back to Redick (who pops off DeAndre Jordan’s screen) and feeds him for an open three. Defenses have to be alert during every second Paul has the ball. He’s a magician who thrives off misdirection. As the Rockets try to fit him into their offense (which already ranks fourth in points per half-court play), guys like Gordon will recalibrate their current responsibilities. It’s not an easy process, but Paul eventually will make life easier for everyone involved.
2. Dear Utah Jazz: Please Tank
The Utah Jazz are flailing in the face of a few unlucky events that have struck over the past few months. They were spurned by Gordon Hayward in free agency, watched Dante Exum suffer another soul-crushing preseason injury, and most recently lost Rudy Gobert for 4-6 weeks to a bruised right tibia. Even though Utah has been better on both sides of the floor when their franchise player is off the court, no team in the West (except to nobody's surprise the San Antonio Spurs) can compete without an All-NBA contributor in the lineup for an extended period.
The bad news gets worse after a quick glance at Utah's schedule, which turns into The Perfect Storm during Gobert’s expected absence. The easiest, broadest, and most annoying response here is to call for the Jazz to tank, but assuming they're ready to face the harsh realities of an impending rebuild, it's also the correct response.
Already submarined by an offense that can’t generate anything substantial sans Hayward, Utah’s focus now that making the playoffs is incredibly unlikely should be morphing into sellers at the trade deadline (moving on from Derrick Favors’ expiring contract is what most point to as a no-brainer, but what could they get for Rodney Hood or Joe Ingles?).
They own all their draft picks and have one of the 10 oldest rosters in the league. This is a perfect chance to tear down a group that's going nowhere and build around a Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, 2018 lotto pick core. It's not fun, but opportunity is knocking on Utah’s door; to ignore it now could cost them down the line.
3. Why Is Effort Still An Issue In Cleveland?
Kevin Love has spent the last three seasons as a scapegoat. Whenever things look bad in Cleveland, Option A is to fire up the trade machine and scrounge around for semi-realistic transactions that would theoretically improve the Cavaliers' championship chances and rid them of Love.
Even though they play, at times, like a grotesque abomination, the Annual Round of Kevin Love Trade Speculation has yet to pick up steam for a few reasons: A) integral Cavs aren’t healthy, B) Love’s value isn’t nearly what it used to be, and C) it’s not even Thanksgiving. Cleveland’s defense is atrocious whether Love is on the floor or not, as a standalone center or beside another beefy body in the frontcourt.
This isn't Love's fault, and there are some things he can’t help. Athletic limitations put a hard cap on how effective he can be trying to prevent the other team from scoring. That, combined with a supporting cast of mostly below-average individual defenders, makes his margin for error paper thin.
For the most part, he makes up for it with intelligence and admirable effort—rotating over to take a charge against Dwight Howard, as Love did on Wednesday night, deserves a medal. Knowing opponents plan to attack him relentlessly in the pick-and-roll, he shuffles his feet and executes whatever coverage Ty Lue has deemed appropriate. But for whatever reason, one seemingly inconsequential and unrelated sequence during last week’s loss to the Houston Rockets stands out in my mind.
Midway through the first quarter, the Rockets deflected a pass and sent the ball rolling towards Cleveland’s baseline. As its intended recipient, Love watched it go out of bounds instead of sprinting to pick it up. It was a simple lack of hustle that forced Cleveland to inbound the ball from beneath its own basket, and allowed Houston to set up its defense with a full-court press. Here’s what happened next:
Harden went on to draw a foul at the rim. This criticism might come off as a bit harsh; on its face it has nothing to do with Cleveland’s wretched defense. But effort matters! And moments like this one are a symptom of bad habits that will come back to bite the Cavaliers when it matters most.
4. Lauri Markkanen’s Wrists Make All The Difference
Everyone who made fun of the Chicago Bulls (my hand is raised) for not just trading Jimmy Butler, but also selecting Lauri Markkanen—every draft prognosticator who I read leading into the 2017 draft's punching bag—has to do 25 pushups.
Even more impressive than the rookie’s startling per game averages (14 points and seven rebounds isn’t bad!) is a shot release that’s faster than a snapping rubber band. Only four players in the league are launching more threes per game with a touch time between 0-2 seconds.
A seven-footer who can shoot threes is still one of the finest luxuries any team can have. The space he figures to provide for a very long time will make life easier for guards like Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine as they come off high screens, and, down the line, could even make Chicago a more attractive free agency destination for ball-handlers who enjoy wide driving lanes. (According to Synergy Sports, Markkanen is currently the NBA’s most efficient pick-and-pop scorer. Anyone who’s ever watched J.J. Barea play basketball with Dirk Nowitzki knows how enjoyable this can be.)
Beyond the ancillary benefits, Markkanen’s quick release sharpens how convenient he can truly be. Unlike uniquely useful yet limited stretch bigs like Kelly Olynyk—someone who will pump fake his way into a phone booth whenever a defender’s closeout gets too close for comfort—Chicago’s rookie combines his height with crackling wrists and enough confidence to fire away even when he isn’t wide open. That’s all very nice to see, and could speed up Chicago's rebuild.
5. Jaylen Brown’s Closeouts Are Hysterically Passive Aggressive
The Celtics allow 99.1 points per 100 possessions when Jaylen Brown is off the court. In almost any other context that number would be a bad thing. But in Boston, where the best defense in the NBA is currently being played, that’s the highest on/off defensive rating for any individual on the team. (The Celtics only allow 94.2 points per 100 possessions with Brown in the game.)
Even if his strength, length, quickness, and ability to walk on water theoretically makes people think he’s one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball, the 21-year-old is still a work in progress who hasn't quite reached the All-Defensive team level he is striving for. He’s fouling less than a year ago, but is still antsy on the ball, prone to falling for ball fakes; all too eager to show off his leaping ability when staying grounded is the better call.
Here’s what Brown had to say after he got a key stop against DeMar DeRozan at the end of Boston’s win last Sunday: “He’ll pump fake and pump fake and pump fake until he gets you off your feet. I’m thinking like, ‘He’s gotta be shooting one of these (bleeps).’ But he’ll keep pump faking and pump faking and pump faking, and you have to do a good job of staying down.”
This leads us to his closeout technique, which, in all honestly, makes me laugh out loud just about every time I see it. Instead of leaning in at a diagonal angle to try and contest the shooter or even block the shot, Brown halts his momentum, bends his knees, and jumps straight in the air, sometimes with both arms stretched high above his head.
On one hand, he eliminates any chance of committing a foul and can’t be condemned for laziness. On the other, I’m not sure this has any impact whatsoever on the shooter—other than him thinking to himself “what the hell is happening right now?”—as he launches the ball. It’s so much effort doing something that probably has no tangible positive impact. It will never not be hilarious. Jaylen for President.
6. I'm (Still) Not A Fan Of Julius Randle
It’s fair to label what Julius Randle is experiencing “a breakout year.” The 22-year-old is averaging 21.1 points and 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, with significant bumps in usage, block percentage, free-throw rate, and True Shooting. All this is promising and nice and may convince one of the league's 29 other teams to draw up a hefty offer sheet this summer.
But even beyond his strange spells of in-game apathy, Randle still doesn’t make any of his teammates better, turns the ball over a ton, and remains prone to clueless mistakes on the defensive end. Despite his new and improved body, bad habits and physical limitations feel like they will forever outweigh all the good he does.
Julius Randle is not a smart defender
Randle's outside shot is still cracked, and it’s unclear what his role/position would be on a good basketball team. A couple years ago I asked former Lakers head coach Byron Scott if he thought about experimenting with Randle at the five. He, somewhat understandably, began his response by laughing out loud. When you’re a big whose range doesn’t extend beyond the paint with a wingspan equal to Nick Young’s, it’s hard to be much help without a very specific cast of supporting skills at your side. Randle is more Kenneth Faried than Draymond Green.
In a fit of curiousity, I looked back at the 2014 draft class just to see how many players I could talk myself into taking ahead of Randle, who was selected seventh overall by the Lakers. I came up with 10 guys. In order of personal preference, they are:
10. Doug McDermott 9. Elfrid Payton 8. Jusuf Nurkic 7. Rodney Hood 6. T.J. Warren 5. Dario Saric 4. Clint Capela 3. Gary Harris 2. Zach LaVine 1. Nikola Jokic
Randle is still extremely young and there’s obviously plenty of time for him to round out the worrisome parts of his game and become a winning player, but so far all he's done is max out on strengths he already possessed.
The fact that Kyle Kuzma has played 159 more minutes in the same number of appearances is quite alarming. According to Cleaning the Glass, L.A.’s Expected Wins total drops by 11 games when Randle is on the court—by far the best number of his career.
(The following take is fresh out of an oven, but I think I’d also prefer Pascal Siakam.)
7. Tobias Harris vs. Robert Covington
Photo by John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
These two aren’t identical, but close enough to make a worthy comparison. They exist as similar 6’9” pivot points who play for a pair of hungry teams in an Eastern Conference. Both are now (wildly) exceeding individual expectations and, in the process, somewhat dramatically elevating their team’s ceiling.
Now here’s a fun question: As two versatile wings with varying yet proportional strengths and weaknesses, who would you rather have?
It literally feels like every time I flip to a Sixers or Pistons game, one of them is about to catch a kick-out pass and nail a three. Only three players have made more threes than Covington this year, and only six—including Covington—have made more than Harris. Also, only three players have been more accurate from beyond the arc than Harris, while just seven are more accurate than Covington. Long story short: Right now they’re two of the best three-point shooters alive.
Covington gets the edge as a defender, but isn’t nearly as effective creating his own shot. Nearly 25 percent fewer of his field goal attempts are unassisted relative to Harris. Covington turns 27 next month and Harris turns 26 this summer. According to Synergy Sports, Harris ranks in the 93rd percentile as an overall offensive weapon, while Covington is 96th. Neither passes the ball.
When you take the average annual salary of Covington’s reported extension, both earn about the same ($15-16 million). It’s hard to choose one over the other, but by roughly 0.5 degrees my personal taste shades towards Covington. Even though he may not have the same offensive impact when his outside shot doesn’t fall at a 50 percent clip, he’s more plug-and-play than Harris, and—debatably—more accepting of his role within his roster’s hierarchy.
Ideally, RoCo would get far more minutes at the four than he’s afforded in Philadelphia, while Harris is able to slide up and take advantage of slower bigs. Here are the numbers if you want to toggle around and see how close they are for yourself.
8. How Does T.J. Warren Do It?
T.J. Warren is a well-rounded offensive basketball player whose primary skill is the willingness to attack in myriad ways. Warren will back cut you to death. He’ll pull up off a high screen. He’ll Eurostep in the open floor. He’ll worm through a maze of screens. He’ll put back a missed jumper (even his own). He’ll post up smaller defenders. He’ll face up against stronger fours.
Very few of these qualities stand out or are aesthetically pleasing, but when jumbled together they work just fine. Phoenix’s offensive rating is 8.7 points per 100 possessions higher when Warren is on the floor, and the team is never more feeble than when he sits, in part because him turning the ball over is a weekly occurrence. (Warren doesn’t pass.)
The lack of three-point shooting is a scarlett letter, but this year he's still exploded for 40 points and 35 points in a pair of wins against the Washington Wizards and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively. Warren isn’t a minus defender, either. He moves around, hustles, and generally seems to understand how to execute Phoenix’s scheme.
It’s unclear how this diverse skill-set would fare in an environment where winning games is a priority, but until then Warren continues to stand out as a unique being in an increasingly homogenous league. Applaud him.
9. Believe It Or Not, The Kings Did Something Nice
The Sacramento Kings have stumbled into their own tier of incompetence, slightly below the Atlanta Hawks (a team that beat them by 46 points on Wednesday night), Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls, and Phoenix Suns. They shoot themselves in the foot on a regular basis—if Dave Joerger has to watch Willie Cauley-Stein leap out of position trying to steal an entry pass one more time he may pack back on all the weight he lost over the summer—and are less talented than their opponent every single night.
But this is the NBA, where even the worst of the worst is still the best of the best. Here’s one example, where Sacramento’s offensive execution trips up the Washington Wizards.
It's a standard split cut, but instead of coming together and then breaking off in seemingly random directions, George Hill spontaneously dives into the paint before the Wizards have time to deal with their assignment. John Wall and Brad Beal don’t realize they have to switch until it’s too late, and it forces Marcin Gortat to lean in the wrong direction. Garrett Temple breaks free for the open three. Good job, Kings. Good job.
10. Let's Measure Legs
Last Saturday night, I sat down to watch a few games with a good friend of mine who only casually dabbles in NBA basketball. About 20 minutes into Bucks/Lakers, he made an astute and obvious point: Players with long legs have a clear advantage over players with short legs, even if they pencil in at the exact same height.“Brandon Ingram’s waist is where his belly button should be.”
This isn't a new discovery, but it made me think about how wingspan has superseded height in the eyes of talent evaluators around the league. Along the same lines, do teams measure leg length the same way? I don’t know the exact answer—I’d guess there’s a 99% chance NBA teams do in fact measure legs from the waist down—but what I do know is the information isn’t listed on NBA.com, where everything from wingspan to hand width to body fat percentage is calculated. Same goes for DraftExpress.
Maybe the length of a player’s legs doesn’t matter, and useful information regarding how much ground they’re able to cover is already quantified with shuttle runs and lane agility drills. But given the obvious advantage someone like Ingram or Giannis Antetokounmpo has on drives to the rim, maybe stride-spans (a working title; I’m also a fan of glide-span) should be added to the long list of characteristics used to evaluate prospects and players.
11. On/Off Numbers Still Hate Avery Bradley
Photo by Aaron Doster - USA TODAY Sports
For the third straight year, Avery Bradley’s team is significantly better on defense when he isn’t on the floor. There are caveats and explanations—Bradley’s help defense is ineffective, he’s perpetually undersized, every starter on the Pistons has poor on/off numbers right now, etc.—but it’s still strange because Avery Bradley is the last person alive I’d want guarding me in a pickup game.
Last season, Bradley’s Real Plus-Minus ranked one spot below Lou Williams—someone opposing offenses intentionally abuse on a regular basis—and this year he’s 67th at his own position. This continues to be one of the more confusing stats vs. eye test battles in the NBA.
12. The New York Knicks Are the NBA’s Most Likable Team
I know everyone is talking about how fun the New York Knicks are, but speaking as someone who’s seen them play in person multiple times this season, I can confirm that yes, the rumors are true. They are an energetic, fresh, and endearing group, with spunky personality, youthful ignorance, and just enough talent to make it all feel respectable.
When you watch them play, you aren’t thinking about the yolk that’s permanently smeared across James Dolan’s forehead, or the disheartening cap sheet that serves as a reminder of their longstanding off-court dysfunction. Instead they play like a snake that’s shed its skin. Jeff Hornacek is liberated to run his own system. Kristaps Porzingis is able to shoot anytime he wants. (The shedding of Carmelo Anthony and Phil Jackson in one offseason has clearly had a profound impact on everyone involved.)
I wrote a couple weeks back that their newfound identity is essentially Porzingis + Putbacks. That’s still true, but their reason for success goes even deeper. Everything revolves around the franchise player. He is Beyonce surrounded by a dozen Kelly Rowlands. It’s a brittle dynamic that doesn’t work without everyone (including Tim Hardaway Jr.) embracing a back seat. From Lance Thomas to Enes Kanter to Jarrett Jack to Doug McDermott, everybody has.
They screen for each other. They drive and move the ball. They siege retreating defenses in transition. Their offense is an endless reel dish and swish, prompted by a group of castaways, retreads, and rookies. (Your personal definition of "loud noise" will forever change after you witness Frank Ntilikina make a jump shot inside Madison Square Garden.)
There will be time for big-picture analysis, and questions remain as to how they can/should build around Porzingis. But for the moment, let’s all enjoy this team for what it is: the NBA’s Cinderella.
The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let's Measure Legs published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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flauntpage · 7 years ago
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The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let's Measure Legs
1. Eric Gordon Has Been Great, Chris Paul Can Make Him Better
Eric Gordon entered the league as a scorer who could shoot. As the years went on, injuries hit, his function on different teams began to change, and he transformed into a shooter who could score. But this year, with a spike in usage and his points per 36 minutes average at a career high, Gordon is balancing the two labels splendidly.
Chris Paul is expected to return on Thursday night, which will bump Gordon back to the bench and diminish his role just a bit. But even if Gordon can't average more than 22 points per game the rest of the way, Paul’s brilliant ability to lull defenses to sleep will help Gordon find even better options from behind the three-point line and at the rim (where he’s shooting a ridiculous 66 percent—up 10 points from last season).
Gordon has slayed defenses with pull-up threes, nailing an unsustainably awesome 41.5 percent of them on more attempts than everyone except James Harden and Damian Lillard. Those opportunities will dwindle, assuming he’s always on the court with Harden and/or Paul from this point forward.
But if we imagine Gordon assuming a similar role to what J.J. Redick had as Paul’s backcourt mate on the Los Angeles Clippers, all of a sudden Houston’s offense becomes even more dynamic in a half-court setting than it already is.
The Rockets already have actions designed to provide Gordon with solid catch-and-shoot looks, and he’s a pro’s pro at shaking his defender and creating separation before the pass hits his hands. But Paul sets the table in a way few others can. Here’s one example: a baseline inbounds play wherein Paul casually takes a dribble handoff and feigns like he’s going to flip the ball to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute over on the weakside.
Instead, in one motion he spins back to Redick (who pops off DeAndre Jordan’s screen) and feeds him for an open three. Defenses have to be alert during every second Paul has the ball. He’s a magician who thrives off misdirection. As the Rockets try to fit him into their offense (which already ranks fourth in points per half-court play), guys like Gordon will recalibrate their current responsibilities. It’s not an easy process, but Paul eventually will make life easier for everyone involved.
2. Dear Utah Jazz: Please Tank
The Utah Jazz are flailing in the face of a few unlucky events that have struck over the past few months. They were spurned by Gordon Hayward in free agency, watched Dante Exum suffer another soul-crushing preseason injury, and most recently lost Rudy Gobert for 4-6 weeks to a bruised right tibia. Even though Utah has been better on both sides of the floor when their franchise player is off the court, no team in the West (except to nobody's surprise the San Antonio Spurs) can compete without an All-NBA contributor in the lineup for an extended period.
The bad news gets worse after a quick glance at Utah's schedule, which turns into The Perfect Storm during Gobert’s expected absence. The easiest, broadest, and most annoying response here is to call for the Jazz to tank, but assuming they're ready to face the harsh realities of an impending rebuild, it's also the correct response.
Already submarined by an offense that can’t generate anything substantial sans Hayward, Utah’s focus now that making the playoffs is incredibly unlikely should be moprhing into sellers at the trade deadline (moving on from Derrick Favors’ expiring contract is what most point to as a no-brainer, but what could they get for Rodney Hood or Joe Ingles?).
They own all their draft picks and have one of the 10 oldest rosters in the league. This is a perfect chance to tear down a group that's going nowhere and build around a Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, 2018 lotto pick core. It's not fun, but opportunity is knocking on Utah’s door; to ignore it now could cost them down the line.
3. Why Is Effort Still An Issue In Cleveland?
Kevin Love has spent the last three seasons as a scapegoat. Whenever things look bad in Cleveland, Option A is to fire up the trade machine and scrounge around for semi-realistic transactions that would theoretically improve the Cavaliers' championship chances and rid them of Love.
Even though they play, at times, like a grotesque abomination, the Annual Round of Kevin Love Trade Speculation has yet to pick up steam for a few reasons: A) integral Cavs aren’t healthy, B) Love’s value isn’t nearly what it used to be, and C) it’s not even Thanksgiving. Cleveland’s defense is atrocious whether Love is on the floor or not, as a standalone center or beside another beefy body in the frontcourt.
This isn't Love's fault, and there are some things he can’t help. Athletic limitations put a hard cap on how effective he can be trying to prevent the other team from scoring. That, combined with a supporting cast of mostly below-average individual defenders, makes his margin for error paper thin.
For the most part, he makes up for it with intelligence and admirable effort—rotating over to take a charge against Dwight Howard, as Love did on Wednesday night, deserves a medal. Knowing opponents plan to attack him relentlessly in the pick-and-roll, he shuffles his feet and executes whatever coverage Ty Lue has deemed appropriate. But for whatever reason, one seemingly inconsequential and unrelated sequence during last week’s loss to the Houston Rockets stands out in my mind.
Midway through the first quarter, the Rockets deflected a pass and sent the ball rolling towards Cleveland’s baseline. As its intended recipient, Love watched it go out of bounds instead of sprinting to pick it up. It was a simple lack of hustle that forced Cleveland to inbound the ball from beneath its own basket, and allowed Houston to set up its defense with a full-court press. Here’s what happened next:
Harden went on to draw a foul at the rim. This criticism might come off as a bit harsh; on its face it has nothing to do with Cleveland’s wretched defense. But effort matters! And moments like this one are a symptom of bad habits that will come back to bite the Cavaliers when it matters most.
4. Lauri Markkanen’s Wrists Make All The Difference
Everyone who made fun of the Chicago Bulls (my hand is raised) for not just trading Jimmy Butler, but also selecting Lauri Markkanen—every draft prognosticator who I read leading into the 2017 draft's punching bag—has to do 25 pushups.
Even more impressive than the rookie’s startling per game averages (14 points and seven rebounds isn’t bad!) is a shot release that’s faster than a snapping rubber band. Only four players in the league are launching more threes per game with a touch time between 0-2 seconds.
A seven-footer who can shoot threes is still one of the finest luxuries any team can have. The space he figures to provide for a very long time will make life easier for guards like Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine as they come off high screens, and, down the line, could even make Chicago a more attractive free agency destination for ball-handlers who enjoy wide driving lanes. (According to Synergy Sports, Markkanen is currently the NBA’s most efficient pick-and-pop scorer. Anyone who’s ever watched J.J. Barea play basketball with Dirk Nowitzki knows how enjoyable this can be.)
Beyond the ancillary benefits, Markkanen’s quick release sharpens how convenient he can truly be. Unlike uniquely useful yet limited stretch bigs like Kelly Olynyk—someone who will pump fake his way into a phone booth whenever a defender’s closeout gets too close for comfort—Chicago’s rookie combines his height with crackling wrists and enough confidence to fire away even when he isn’t wide open. That’s all very nice to see, and could speed up Chicago's rebuild.
5. Jaylen Brown’s Closeouts Are Hysterically Passive Aggressive
The Celtics allow 99.1 points per 100 possessions when Jaylen Brown is off the court. In almost any other context that number would be a bad thing. But in Boston, where the best defense in the NBA is currently being played, that’s the highest on/off defensive rating for any individual on the team. (The Celtics only allow 94.2 points per 100 possessions with Brown in the game.)
Even if his strength, length, quickness, and ability to walk on water theoretically makes people think he’s one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball, the 21-year-old is still a work in progress who hasn't quite reached the All-Defensive team level he is striving for. He’s fouling less than a year ago, but is still antsy on the ball, prone to falling for ball fakes; all too eager to show off his leaping ability when staying grounded is the better call.
Here’s what Brown had to say after he got a key stop against DeMar DeRozan at the end of Boston’s win last Sunday: “He’ll pump fake and pump fake and pump fake until he gets you off your feet. I’m thinking like, ‘He’s gotta be shooting one of these (bleeps).’ But he’ll keep pump faking and pump faking and pump faking, and you have to do a good job of staying down.”
This leads us to his closeout technique, which, in all honestly, makes me laugh out loud just about every time I see it. Instead of leaning in at a diagonal angle to try and contest the shooter or even block the shot, Brown halts his momentum, bends his knees, and jumps straight in the air, sometimes with both arms stretched high above his head.
On one hand, he eliminates any chance of committing a foul and can’t be condemned for laziness. On the other, I’m not sure this has any impact whatsoever on the shooter—other than him thinking to himself “what the hell is happening right now?”—as he launches the ball. It’s so much effort doing something that probably has no tangible positive impact. It will never not be hilarious. Jaylen for President.
6. I'm (Still) Not A Fan Of Julius Randle
It’s fair to label what Julius Randle is experiencing “a breakout year.” The 22-year-old is averaging 21.1 points and 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, with significant bumps in usage, block percentage, free-throw rate, and True Shooting. All this is promising and nice and may convince one of the league's 29 other teams to draw up a hefty offer sheet this summer.
But even beyond his strange spells of in-game apathy, Randle still doesn’t make any of his teammates better, turns the ball over a ton, and remains prone to clueless mistakes on the defensive end. Despite his new and improved body, bad habits and physical limitations feel like they will forever outweigh all the good he does.
Julius Randle is not a smart defender
Randle's outside shot is still cracked, and it’s unclear what his role/position would be on a good basketball team. A couple years ago I asked former Lakers head coach Byron Scott if he thought about experimenting with Randle at the five. He, somewhat understandably, began his response by laughing out loud. When you’re a big whose range doesn’t extend beyond the paint with a wingspan equal to Nick Young’s, it’s hard to be much help without a very specific cast of supporting skills at your side. Randle is more Kenneth Faried than Draymond Green.
In a fit of curiousity, I looked back at the 2014 draft class just to see how many players I could talk myself into taking ahead of Randle, who was selected seventh overall by the Lakers. I came up with 10 guys. In order of personal preference, they are:
10. Doug McDermott 9. Elfrid Payton 8. Jusuf Nurkic 7. Rodney Hood 6. T.J. Warren 5. Dario Saric 4. Clint Capela 3. Gary Harris 2. Zach LaVine 1. Nikola Jokic
Randle is still extremely young and there’s obviously plenty of time for him to round out the worrisome parts of his game and become a winning player, but so far all he's done is max out on strengths he already possessed.
The fact that Kyle Kuzma has played 159 more minutes in the same number of appearances is quite alarming. According to Cleaning the Glass, L.A.’s Expected Wins total drops by 11 games when Randle is on the court—by far the best number of his career.
(The following take is fresh out of an oven, but I think I’d also prefer Pascal Siakam.)
7. Tobias Harris vs. Robert Covington
Photo by John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
These two aren’t identical, but close enough to make a worthy comparison. They exist as similar 6’9” pivot points who play for a pair of hungry teams in an Eastern Conference. Both are now (wildly) exceeding individual expectations and, in the process, somewhat dramatically elevating their team’s ceiling.
Now here’s a fun question: As two versatile wings with varying yet proportional strengths and weaknesses, who would you rather have?
It literally feels like every time I flip to a Sixers or Pistons game, one of them is about to catch a kick-out pass and nail a three. Only three players have made more threes than Covington this year, and only six—including Covington—have made more than Harris. Also, only three players have been more accurate from beyond the arc than Harris, while just seven are more accurate than Covington. Long story short: Right now they’re two of the best three-point shooters alive.
Covington gets the edge as a defender, but isn’t nearly as effective creating his own shot. Nearly 25 percent fewer of his field goal attempts are unassisted relative to Harris. Covington turns 27 next month and Harris turns 26 this summer. According to Synergy Sports, Harris ranks in the 93rd percentile as an overall offensive weapon, while Covington is 96th. Neither passes the ball.
When you take the average annual salary of Covington’s reported extension, both earn about the same ($15-16 million). It’s hard to choose one over the other, but by roughly 0.5 degrees my personal taste shades towards Covington. Even though he may not have the same offensive impact when his outside shot doesn’t fall at a 50 percent clip, he’s more plug-and-play than Harris, and—debatably—more accepting of his role within his roster’s hierarchy.
Ideally, RoCo would get far more minutes at the four than he’s afforded in Philadelphia, while Harris is able to slide up and take advantage of slower bigs. Here are the numbers if you want to toggle around and see how close they are for yourself.
8. How Does T.J. Warren Do It?
T.J. Warren is a well-rounded offensive basketball player whose primary skill is the willingness to attack in myriad ways. Warren will back cut you to death. He’ll pull up off a high screen. He’ll Eurostep in the open floor. He’ll worm through a maze of screens. He’ll put back a missed jumper (even his own). He’ll post up smaller defenders. He’ll face up against stronger fours.
Very few of these qualities stand out or are aesthetically pleasing, but when jumbled together they work just fine. Phoenix’s offensive rating is 8.7 points per 100 possessions higher when Warren is on the floor, and the team is never more feeble than when he sits, in part because him turning the ball over is a weekly occurrence. (Warren doesn’t pass.)
The lack of three-point shooting is a scarlett letter, but this year he's still exploded for 40 points and 35 points in a pair of wins against the Washington Wizards and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively. Warren isn’t a minus defender, either. He moves around, hustles, and generally seems to understand how to execute Phoenix’s scheme.
It’s unclear how this diverse skill-set would fare in an environment where winning games is a priority, but until then Warren continues to stand out as a unique being in an increasingly homogenous league. Applaud him.
9. Believe It Or Not, The Kings Did Something Nice
The Sacramento Kings have stumbled into their own tier of incompetence, slightly below the Atlanta Hawks (a team that beat them by 46 points on Wednesday night), Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls, and Phoenix Suns. They shoot themselves in the foot on a regular basis—if Dave Joerger has to watch Willie Cauley-Stein leap out of position trying to steal an entry pass one more time he may pack back on all the weight he lost over the summer—and are less talented than their opponent every single night.
But this is the NBA, where even the worst of the worst is still the best of the best. Here’s one example, where Sacramento’s offensive execution trips up the Washington Wizards.
It's a standard split cut, but instead of coming together and then breaking off in seemingly random directions, George Hill spontaneously dives into the paint before the Wizards have time to deal with their assignment. John Wall and Brad Beal don’t realize they have to switch until it’s too late, and it forces Marcin Gortat to lean in the wrong direction. Garrett Temple breaks free for the open three. Good job, Kings. Good job.
10. Let's Measure Legs
Last Saturday night, I sat down to watch a few games with a good friend of mine who only casually dabbles in NBA basketball. About 20 minutes into Bucks/Lakers, he made an astute and obvious point: Players with long legs have a clear advantage over players with short legs, even if they pencil in at the exact same height.“Brandon Ingram’s waist is where his belly button should be.”
This isn't a new discovery, but it made me think about how wingspan has superseded height in the eyes of talent evaluators around the league. Along the same lines, do teams measure leg length the same way? I don’t know the exact answer—I’d guess there’s a 99% chance NBA teams do in fact measure legs from the waist down—but what I do know is the information isn’t listed on NBA.com, where everything from wingspan to hand width to body fat percentage is calculated. Same goes for DraftExpress.
Maybe the length of a player’s legs doesn’t matter, and useful information regarding how much ground they’re able to cover is already quantified with shuttle runs and lane agility drills. But given the obvious advantage someone like Ingram or Giannis Antetokounmpo has on drives to the rim, maybe stride-spans (a working title; I’m also a fan of glide-span) should be added to the long list of characteristics used to evaluate prospects and players.
11. On/Off Numbers Still Hate Avery Bradley
Photo by Aaron Doster - USA TODAY Sports
For the third straight year, Avery Bradley’s team is significantly better on defense when he isn’t on the floor. There are caveats and explanations—Bradley’s help defense is ineffective, he’s perpetually undersized, every starter on the Pistons has poor on/off numbers right now, etc.—but it’s still strange because Avery Bradley is the last person alive I’d want guarding me in a pickup game.
Last season, Bradley’s Real Plus-Minus ranked one spot below Lou Williams—someone opposing offenses intentionally abuse on a regular basis—and this year he’s 67th at his own position. This continues to be one of the more confusing stats vs. eye test battles in the NBA.
12. The New York Knicks Are the NBA’s Most Likable Team
I know everyone is talking about how fun the New York Knicks are, but speaking as someone who’s seen them play in person multiple times this season, I can confirm that yes, the rumors are true. They are an energetic, fresh, and endearing group, with spunky personality, youthful ignorance, and just enough talent to make it all feel respectable.
When you watch them play, you aren’t thinking about the yolk that’s permanently smeared across James Dolan’s forehead, or the disheartening cap sheet that serves as a reminder of their longstanding off-court dysfunction. Instead they play like a snake that’s shed its skin. Jeff Hornacek is liberated to run his own system. Kristaps Porzingis is able to shoot anytime he wants. (The shedding of Carmelo Anthony and Phil Jackson in one offseason has clearly had a profound impact on everyone involved.)
I wrote a couple weeks back that their newfound identity is essentially Porzingis + Putbacks. That’s still true, but their reason for success goes even deeper. Everything revolves around the franchise player. He is Beyonce surrounded by a dozen Kelly Rowlands. It’s a brittle dynamic that doesn’t work without everyone (including Tim Hardaway Jr.) embracing a back seat. From Lance Thomas to Enes Kanter to Jarrett Jack to Doug McDermott, everybody has.
They screen for each other. They drive and move the ball. They siege retreating defenses in transition. Their offense is an endless reel dish and swish, prompted by a group of castaways, retreads, and rookies. (Your personal definition of "loud noise" will forever change after you witness Frank Ntilikina make a jump shot inside Madison Square Garden.)
There will be time for big-picture analysis, and questions remain as to how they can/should build around Porzingis. But for the moment, let’s all enjoy this team for what it is: the NBA’s Cinderella.
The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let's Measure Legs published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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flauntpage · 7 years ago
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The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let's Measure Legs
1. Eric Gordon Has Been Great, Chris Paul Can Make Him Better
Eric Gordon entered the league as a scorer who could shoot. As the years went on, injuries hit, his function on different teams began to change, and he transformed into a shooter who could score. But this year, with a spike in usage and his points per 36 minutes average at a career high, Gordon is balancing the two labels splendidly.
Chris Paul is expected to return on Thursday night, which will bump Gordon back to the bench and diminish his role just a bit. But even if Gordon can't average more than 22 points per game the rest of the way, Paul’s brilliant ability to lull defenses to sleep will help Gordon find even better options from behind the three-point line and at the rim (where he’s shooting a ridiculous 66 percent—up 10 points from last season).
Gordon has slayed defenses with pull-up threes, nailing an unsustainably awesome 41.5 percent of them on more attempts than everyone except James Harden and Damian Lillard. Those opportunities will dwindle, assuming he’s always on the court with Harden and/or Paul from this point forward.
But if we imagine Gordon assuming a similar role to what J.J. Redick had as Paul’s backcourt mate on the Los Angeles Clippers, all of a sudden Houston’s offense becomes even more dynamic in a half-court setting than it already is.
The Rockets already have actions designed to provide Gordon with solid catch-and-shoot looks, and he’s a pro’s pro at shaking his defender and creating separation before the pass hits his hands. But Paul sets the table in a way few others can. Here’s one example: a baseline inbounds play wherein Paul casually takes a dribble handoff and feigns like he’s going to flip the ball to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute over on the weakside.
Instead, in one motion he spins back to Redick (who pops off DeAndre Jordan’s screen) and feeds him for an open three. Defenses have to be alert during every second Paul has the ball. He’s a magician who thrives off misdirection. As the Rockets try to fit him into their offense (which already ranks fourth in points per half-court play), guys like Gordon will recalibrate their current responsibilities. It’s not an easy process, but Paul eventually will make life easier for everyone involved.
2. Dear Utah Jazz: Please Tank
The Utah Jazz are flailing in the face of a few unlucky events that have struck over the past few months. They were spurned by Gordon Hayward in free agency, watched Dante Exum suffer another soul-crushing preseason injury, and most recently lost Rudy Gobert for 4-6 weeks to a bruised right tibia. Even though Utah has been better on both sides of the floor when their franchise player is off the court, no team in the West (except to nobody's surprise the San Antonio Spurs) can compete without an All-NBA contributor in the lineup for an extended period.
The bad news gets worse after a quick glance at Utah's schedule, which turns into The Perfect Storm during Gobert’s expected absence. The easiest, broadest, and most annoying response here is to call for the Jazz to tank, but assuming they're ready to face the harsh realities of an impending rebuild, it's also the correct response.
Already submarined by an offense that can’t generate anything substantial sans Hayward, Utah’s focus now that making the playoffs is incredibly unlikely should be moprhing into sellers at the trade deadline (moving on from Derrick Favors’ expiring contract is what most point to as a no-brainer, but what could they get for Rodney Hood or Joe Ingles?).
They own all their draft picks and have one of the 10 oldest rosters in the league. This is a perfect chance to tear down a group that's going nowhere and build around a Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, 2018 lotto pick core. It's not fun, but opportunity is knocking on Utah’s door; to ignore it now could cost them down the line.
3. Why Is Effort Still An Issue In Cleveland?
Kevin Love has spent the last three seasons as a scapegoat. Whenever things look bad in Cleveland, Option A is to fire up the trade machine and scrounge around for semi-realistic transactions that would theoretically improve the Cavaliers' championship chances and rid them of Love.
Even though they play, at times, like a grotesque abomination, the Annual Round of Kevin Love Trade Speculation has yet to pick up steam for a few reasons: A) integral Cavs aren’t healthy, B) Love’s value isn’t nearly what it used to be, and C) it’s not even Thanksgiving. Cleveland’s defense is atrocious whether Love is on the floor or not, as a standalone center or beside another beefy body in the frontcourt.
This isn't Love's fault, and there are some things he can’t help. Athletic limitations put a hard cap on how effective he can be trying to prevent the other team from scoring. That, combined with a supporting cast of mostly below-average individual defenders, makes his margin for error paper thin.
For the most part, he makes up for it with intelligence and admirable effort—rotating over to take a charge against Dwight Howard, as Love did on Wednesday night, deserves a medal. Knowing opponents plan to attack him relentlessly in the pick-and-roll, he shuffles his feet and executes whatever coverage Ty Lue has deemed appropriate. But for whatever reason, one seemingly inconsequential and unrelated sequence during last week’s loss to the Houston Rockets stands out in my mind.
Midway through the first quarter, the Rockets deflected a pass and sent the ball rolling towards Cleveland’s baseline. As its intended recipient, Love watched it go out of bounds instead of sprinting to pick it up. It was a simple lack of hustle that forced Cleveland to inbound the ball from beneath its own basket, and allowed Houston to set up its defense with a full-court press. Here’s what happened next:
Harden went on to draw a foul at the rim. This criticism might come off as a bit harsh; on its face it has nothing to do with Cleveland’s wretched defense. But effort matters! And moments like this one are a symptom of bad habits that will come back to bite the Cavaliers when it matters most.
4. Lauri Markkanen’s Wrists Make All The Difference
Everyone who made fun of the Chicago Bulls (my hand is raised) for not just trading Jimmy Butler, but also selecting Lauri Markkanen—every draft prognosticator who I read leading into the 2017 draft's punching bag—has to do 25 pushups.
Even more impressive than the rookie’s startling per game averages (14 points and seven rebounds isn’t bad!) is a shot release that’s faster than a snapping rubber band. Only four players in the league are launching more threes per game with a touch time between 0-2 seconds.
A seven-footer who can shoot threes is still one of the finest luxuries any team can have. The space he figures to provide for a very long time will make life easier for guards like Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine as they come off high screens, and, down the line, could even make Chicago a more attractive free agency destination for ball-handlers who enjoy wide driving lanes. (According to Synergy Sports, Markkanen is currently the NBA’s most efficient pick-and-pop scorer. Anyone who’s ever watched J.J. Barea play basketball with Dirk Nowitzki knows how enjoyable this can be.)
Beyond the ancillary benefits, Markkanen’s quick release sharpens how convenient he can truly be. Unlike uniquely useful yet limited stretch bigs like Kelly Olynyk—someone who will pump fake his way into a phone booth whenever a defender’s closeout gets too close for comfort—Chicago’s rookie combines his height with crackling wrists and enough confidence to fire away even when he isn’t wide open. That’s all very nice to see, and could speed up Chicago's rebuild.
5. Jaylen Brown’s Closeouts Are Hysterically Passive Aggressive
The Celtics allow 99.1 points per 100 possessions when Jaylen Brown is off the court. In almost any other context that number would be a bad thing. But in Boston, where the best defense in the NBA is currently being played, that’s the highest on/off defensive rating for any individual on the team. (The Celtics only allow 94.2 points per 100 possessions with Brown in the game.)
Even if his strength, length, quickness, and ability to walk on water theoretically makes people think he’s one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball, the 21-year-old is still a work in progress who hasn't quite reached the All-Defensive team level he is striving for. He’s fouling less than a year ago, but is still antsy on the ball, prone to falling for ball fakes; all too eager to show off his leaping ability when staying grounded is the better call.
Here’s what Brown had to say after he got a key stop against DeMar DeRozan at the end of Boston’s win last Sunday: “He’ll pump fake and pump fake and pump fake until he gets you off your feet. I’m thinking like, ‘He’s gotta be shooting one of these (bleeps).’ But he’ll keep pump faking and pump faking and pump faking, and you have to do a good job of staying down.”
This leads us to his closeout technique, which, in all honestly, makes me laugh out loud just about every time I see it. Instead of leaning in at a diagonal angle to try and contest the shooter or even block the shot, Brown halts his momentum, bends his knees, and jumps straight in the air, sometimes with both arms stretched high above his head.
On one hand, he eliminates any chance of committing a foul and can’t be condemned for laziness. On the other, I’m not sure this has any impact whatsoever on the shooter—other than him thinking to himself “what the hell is happening right now?”—as he launches the ball. It’s so much effort doing something that probably has no tangible positive impact. It will never not be hilarious. Jaylen for President.
6. I'm (Still) Not A Fan Of Julius Randle
It’s fair to label what Julius Randle is experiencing “a breakout year.” The 22-year-old is averaging 21.1 points and 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, with significant bumps in usage, block percentage, free-throw rate, and True Shooting. All this is promising and nice and may convince one of the league's 29 other teams to draw up a hefty offer sheet this summer.
But even beyond his strange spells of in-game apathy, Randle still doesn’t make any of his teammates better, turns the ball over a ton, and remains prone to clueless mistakes on the defensive end. Despite his new and improved body, bad habits and physical limitations feel like they will forever outweigh all the good he does.
Julius Randle is not a smart defender
Randle's outside shot is still cracked, and it’s unclear what his role/position would be on a good basketball team. A couple years ago I asked former Lakers head coach Byron Scott if he thought about experimenting with Randle at the five. He, somewhat understandably, began his response by laughing out loud. When you’re a big whose range doesn’t extend beyond the paint with a wingspan equal to Nick Young’s, it’s hard to be much help without a very specific cast of supporting skills at your side. Randle is more Kenneth Faried than Draymond Green.
In a fit of curiousity, I looked back at the 2014 draft class just to see how many players I could talk myself into taking ahead of Randle, who was selected seventh overall by the Lakers. I came up with 10 guys. In order of personal preference, they are:
10. Doug McDermott 9. Elfrid Payton 8. Jusuf Nurkic 7. Rodney Hood 6. T.J. Warren 5. Dario Saric 4. Clint Capela 3. Gary Harris 2. Zach LaVine 1. Nikola Jokic
Randle is still extremely young and there’s obviously plenty of time for him to round out the worrisome parts of his game and become a winning player, but so far all he's done is max out on strengths he already possessed.
The fact that Kyle Kuzma has played 159 more minutes in the same number of appearances is quite alarming. According to Cleaning the Glass, L.A.’s Expected Wins total drops by 11 games when Randle is on the court—by far the best number of his career.
(The following take is fresh out of an oven, but I think I’d also prefer Pascal Siakam.)
7. Tobias Harris vs. Robert Covington
Photo by John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
These two aren’t identical, but close enough to make a worthy comparison. They exist as similar 6’9” pivot points who play for a pair of hungry teams in an Eastern Conference. Both are now (wildly) exceeding individual expectations and, in the process, somewhat dramatically elevating their team’s ceiling.
Now here’s a fun question: As two versatile wings with varying yet proportional strengths and weaknesses, who would you rather have?
It literally feels like every time I flip to a Sixers or Pistons game, one of them is about to catch a kick-out pass and nail a three. Only three players have made more threes than Covington this year, and only six—including Covington—have made more than Harris. Also, only three players have been more accurate from beyond the arc than Harris, while just seven are more accurate than Covington. Long story short: Right now they’re two of the best three-point shooters alive.
Covington gets the edge as a defender, but isn’t nearly as effective creating his own shot. Nearly 25 percent fewer of his field goal attempts are unassisted relative to Harris. Covington turns 27 next month and Harris turns 26 this summer. According to Synergy Sports, Harris ranks in the 93rd percentile as an overall offensive weapon, while Covington is 96th. Neither passes the ball.
When you take the average annual salary of Covington’s reported extension, both earn about the same ($15-16 million). It’s hard to choose one over the other, but by roughly 0.5 degrees my personal taste shades towards Covington. Even though he may not have the same offensive impact when his outside shot doesn’t fall at a 50 percent clip, he’s more plug-and-play than Harris, and—debatably—more accepting of his role within his roster’s hierarchy.
Ideally, RoCo would get far more minutes at the four than he’s afforded in Philadelphia, while Harris is able to slide up and take advantage of slower bigs. Here are the numbers if you want to toggle around and see how close they are for yourself.
8. How Does T.J. Warren Do It?
T.J. Warren is a well-rounded offensive basketball player whose primary skill is the willingness to attack in myriad ways. Warren will back cut you to death. He’ll pull up off a high screen. He’ll Eurostep in the open floor. He’ll worm through a maze of screens. He’ll put back a missed jumper (even his own). He’ll post up smaller defenders. He’ll face up against stronger fours.
Very few of these qualities stand out or are aesthetically pleasing, but when jumbled together they work just fine. Phoenix’s offensive rating is 8.7 points per 100 possessions higher when Warren is on the floor, and the team is never more feeble than when he sits, in part because him turning the ball over is a weekly occurrence. (Warren doesn’t pass.)
The lack of three-point shooting is a scarlett letter, but this year he's still exploded for 40 points and 35 points in a pair of wins against the Washington Wizards and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively. Warren isn’t a minus defender, either. He moves around, hustles, and generally seems to understand how to execute Phoenix’s scheme.
It’s unclear how this diverse skill-set would fare in an environment where winning games is a priority, but until then Warren continues to stand out as a unique being in an increasingly homogenous league. Applaud him.
9. Believe It Or Not, The Kings Did Something Nice
The Sacramento Kings have stumbled into their own tier of incompetence, slightly below the Atlanta Hawks (a team that beat them by 46 points on Wednesday night), Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls, and Phoenix Suns. They shoot themselves in the foot on a regular basis—if Dave Joerger has to watch Willie Cauley-Stein leap out of position trying to steal an entry pass one more time he may pack back on all the weight he lost over the summer—and are less talented than their opponent every single night.
But this is the NBA, where even the worst of the worst is still the best of the best. Here’s one example, where Sacramento’s offensive execution trips up the Washington Wizards.
It's a standard split cut, but instead of coming together and then breaking off in seemingly random directions, George Hill spontaneously dives into the paint before the Wizards have time to deal with their assignment. John Wall and Brad Beal don’t realize they have to switch until it’s too late, and it forces Marcin Gortat to lean in the wrong direction. Garrett Temple breaks free for the open three. Good job, Kings. Good job.
10. Let's Measure Legs
Last Saturday night, I sat down to watch a few games with a good friend of mine who only casually dabbles in NBA basketball. About 20 minutes into Bucks/Lakers, he made an astute and obvious point: Players with long legs have a clear advantage over players with short legs, even if they pencil in at the exact same height.“Brandon Ingram’s waist is where his belly button should be.”
This isn't a new discovery, but it made me think about how wingspan has superseded height in the eyes of talent evaluators around the league. Along the same lines, do teams measure leg length the same way? I don’t know the exact answer—I’d guess there’s a 99% chance NBA teams do in fact measure legs from the waist down—but what I do know is the information isn’t listed on NBA.com, where everything from wingspan to hand width to body fat percentage is calculated. Same goes for DraftExpress.
Maybe the length of a player’s legs doesn’t matter, and useful information regarding how much ground they’re able to cover is already quantified with shuttle runs and lane agility drills. But given the obvious advantage someone like Ingram or Giannis Antetokounmpo has on drives to the rim, maybe stride-spans (a working title; I’m also a fan of glide-span) should be added to the long list of characteristics used to evaluate prospects and players.
11. On/Off Numbers Still Hate Avery Bradley
Photo by Aaron Doster - USA TODAY Sports
For the third straight year, Avery Bradley’s team is significantly better on defense when he isn’t on the floor. There are caveats and explanations—Bradley’s help defense is ineffective, he’s perpetually undersized, every starter on the Pistons has poor on/off numbers right now, etc.—but it’s still strange because Avery Bradley is the last person alive I’d want guarding me in a pickup game.
Last season, Bradley’s Real Plus-Minus ranked one spot below Lou Williams—someone opposing offenses intentionally abuse on a regular basis—and this year he’s 67th at his own position. This continues to be one of the more confusing stats vs. eye test battles in the NBA.
12. The New York Knicks Are the NBA’s Most Likable Team
I know everyone is talking about how fun the New York Knicks are, but speaking as someone who’s seen them play in person multiple times this season, I can confirm that yes, the rumors are true. They are an energetic, fresh, and endearing group, with spunky personality, youthful ignorance, and just enough talent to make it all feel respectable.
When you watch them play, you aren’t thinking about the yolk that’s permanently smeared across James Dolan’s forehead, or the disheartening cap sheet that serves as a reminder of their longstanding off-court dysfunction. Instead they play like a snake that’s shed its skin. Jeff Hornacek is liberated to run his own system. Kristaps Porzingis is able to shoot anytime he wants. (The shedding of Carmelo Anthony and Phil Jackson in one offseason has clearly had a profound impact on everyone involved.)
I wrote a couple weeks back that their newfound identity is essentially Porzingis + Putbacks. That’s still true, but their reason for success goes even deeper. Everything revolves around the franchise player. He is Beyonce surrounded by a dozen Kelly Rowlands. It’s a brittle dynamic that doesn’t work without everyone (including Tim Hardaway Jr.) embracing a back seat. From Lance Thomas to Enes Kanter to Jarrett Jack to Doug McDermott, everybody has.
They screen for each other. They drive and move the ball. They siege retreating defenses in transition. Their offense is an endless reel dish and swish, prompted by a group of castaways, retreads, and rookies. (Your personal definition of "loud noise" will forever change after you witness Frank Ntilikina make a jump shot inside Madison Square Garden.)
There will be time for big-picture analysis, and questions remain as to how they can/should build around Porzingis. But for the moment, let’s all enjoy this team for what it is: the NBA’s Cinderella.
The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let's Measure Legs published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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flauntpage · 7 years ago
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The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let's Measure Legs
1. Eric Gordon Has Been Great, Chris Paul Can Make Him Better
Eric Gordon entered the league as a scorer who could shoot. As the years went on, injuries hit, his function on different teams began to change, and he transformed into a shooter who could score. But this year, with a spike in usage and his points per 36 minutes average at a career high, Gordon is balancing the two labels splendidly.
Chris Paul is expected to return on Thursday night, which will bump Gordon back to the bench and diminish his role just a bit. But even if Gordon can't average more than 22 points per game the rest of the way, Paul’s brilliant ability to lull defenses to sleep will help Gordon find even better options from behind the three-point line and at the rim (where he’s shooting a ridiculous 66 percent—up 10 points from last season).
Gordon has slayed defenses with pull-up threes, nailing an unsustainably awesome 41.5 percent of them on more attempts than everyone except James Harden and Damian Lillard. Those opportunities will dwindle, assuming he’s always on the court with Harden and/or Paul from this point forward.
But if we imagine Gordon assuming a similar role to what J.J. Redick had as Paul’s backcourt mate on the Los Angeles Clippers, all of a sudden Houston’s offense becomes even more dynamic in a half-court setting than it already is.
The Rockets already have actions designed to provide Gordon with solid catch-and-shoot looks, and he’s a pro’s pro at shaking his defender and creating separation before the pass hits his hands. But Paul sets the table in a way few others can. Here’s one example: a baseline inbounds play wherein Paul casually takes a dribble handoff and feigns like he’s going to flip the ball to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute over on the weakside.
Instead, in one motion he spins back to Redick (who pops off DeAndre Jordan’s screen) and feeds him for an open three. Defenses have to be alert during every second Paul has the ball. He’s a magician who thrives off misdirection. As the Rockets try to fit him into their offense (which already ranks fourth in points per half-court play), guys like Gordon will recalibrate their current responsibilities. It’s not an easy process, but Paul eventually will make life easier for everyone involved.
2. Dear Utah Jazz: Please Tank
The Utah Jazz are flailing in the face of a few unlucky events that have struck over the past few months. They were spurned by Gordon Hayward in free agency, watched Dante Exum suffer another soul-crushing preseason injury, and most recently lost Rudy Gobert for 4-6 weeks to a bruised right tibia. Even though Utah has been better on both sides of the floor when their franchise player is off the court, no team in the West (except to nobody's surprise the San Antonio Spurs) can compete without an All-NBA contributor in the lineup for an extended period.
The bad news gets worse after a quick glance at Utah's schedule, which turns into The Perfect Storm during Gobert’s expected absence. The easiest, broadest, and most annoying response here is to call for the Jazz to tank, but assuming they're ready to face the harsh realities of an impending rebuild, it's also the correct response.
Already submarined by an offense that can’t generate anything substantial sans Hayward, Utah’s focus now that making the playoffs is incredibly unlikely should be moprhing into sellers at the trade deadline (moving on from Derrick Favors’ expiring contract is what most point to as a no-brainer, but what could they get for Rodney Hood or Joe Ingles?).
They own all their draft picks and have one of the 10 oldest rosters in the league. This is a perfect chance to tear down a group that's going nowhere and build around a Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, 2018 lotto pick core. It's not fun, but opportunity is knocking on Utah’s door; to ignore it now could cost them down the line.
3. Why Is Effort Still An Issue In Cleveland?
Kevin Love has spent the last three seasons as a scapegoat. Whenever things look bad in Cleveland, Option A is to fire up the trade machine and scrounge around for semi-realistic transactions that would theoretically improve the Cavaliers' championship chances and rid them of Love.
Even though they play, at times, like a grotesque abomination, the Annual Round of Kevin Love Trade Speculation has yet to pick up steam for a few reasons: A) integral Cavs aren’t healthy, B) Love’s value isn’t nearly what it used to be, and C) it’s not even Thanksgiving. Cleveland’s defense is atrocious whether Love is on the floor or not, as a standalone center or beside another beefy body in the frontcourt.
This isn't Love's fault, and there are some things he can’t help. Athletic limitations put a hard cap on how effective he can be trying to prevent the other team from scoring. That, combined with a supporting cast of mostly below-average individual defenders, makes his margin for error paper thin.
For the most part, he makes up for it with intelligence and admirable effort—rotating over to take a charge against Dwight Howard, as Love did on Wednesday night, deserves a medal. Knowing opponents plan to attack him relentlessly in the pick-and-roll, he shuffles his feet and executes whatever coverage Ty Lue has deemed appropriate. But for whatever reason, one seemingly inconsequential and unrelated sequence during last week’s loss to the Houston Rockets stands out in my mind.
Midway through the first quarter, the Rockets deflected a pass and sent the ball rolling towards Cleveland’s baseline. As its intended recipient, Love watched it go out of bounds instead of sprinting to pick it up. It was a simple lack of hustle that forced Cleveland to inbound the ball from beneath its own basket, and allowed Houston to set up its defense with a full-court press. Here’s what happened next:
Harden went on to draw a foul at the rim. This criticism might come off as a bit harsh; on its face it has nothing to do with Cleveland’s wretched defense. But effort matters! And moments like this one are a symptom of bad habits that will come back to bite the Cavaliers when it matters most.
4. Lauri Markkanen’s Wrists Make All The Difference
Everyone who made fun of the Chicago Bulls (my hand is raised) for not just trading Jimmy Butler, but also selecting Lauri Markkanen—every draft prognosticator who I read leading into the 2017 draft's punching bag—has to do 25 pushups.
Even more impressive than the rookie’s startling per game averages (14 points and seven rebounds isn’t bad!) is a shot release that’s faster than a snapping rubber band. Only four players in the league are launching more threes per game with a touch time between 0-2 seconds.
A seven-footer who can shoot threes is still one of the finest luxuries any team can have. The space he figures to provide for a very long time will make life easier for guards like Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine as they come off high screens, and, down the line, could even make Chicago a more attractive free agency destination for ball-handlers who enjoy wide driving lanes. (According to Synergy Sports, Markkanen is currently the NBA’s most efficient pick-and-pop scorer. Anyone who’s ever watched J.J. Barea play basketball with Dirk Nowitzki knows how enjoyable this can be.)
Beyond the ancillary benefits, Markkanen’s quick release sharpens how convenient he can truly be. Unlike uniquely useful yet limited stretch bigs like Kelly Olynyk—someone who will pump fake his way into a phone booth whenever a defender’s closeout gets too close for comfort—Chicago’s rookie combines his height with crackling wrists and enough confidence to fire away even when he isn’t wide open. That’s all very nice to see, and could speed up Chicago's rebuild.
5. Jaylen Brown’s Closeouts Are Hysterically Passive Aggressive
The Celtics allow 99.1 points per 100 possessions when Jaylen Brown is off the court. In almost any other context that number would be a bad thing. But in Boston, where the best defense in the NBA is currently being played, that’s the highest on/off defensive rating for any individual on the team. (The Celtics only allow 94.2 points per 100 possessions with Brown in the game.)
Even if his strength, length, quickness, and ability to walk on water theoretically makes people think he’s one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball, the 21-year-old is still a work in progress who hasn't quite reached the All-Defensive team level he is striving for. He’s fouling less than a year ago, but is still antsy on the ball, prone to falling for ball fakes; all too eager to show off his leaping ability when staying grounded is the better call.
Here’s what Brown had to say after he got a key stop against DeMar DeRozan at the end of Boston’s win last Sunday: “He’ll pump fake and pump fake and pump fake until he gets you off your feet. I’m thinking like, ‘He’s gotta be shooting one of these (bleeps).’ But he’ll keep pump faking and pump faking and pump faking, and you have to do a good job of staying down.”
This leads us to his closeout technique, which, in all honestly, makes me laugh out loud just about every time I see it. Instead of leaning in at a diagonal angle to try and contest the shooter or even block the shot, Brown halts his momentum, bends his knees, and jumps straight in the air, sometimes with both arms stretched high above his head.
On one hand, he eliminates any chance of committing a foul and can’t be condemned for laziness. On the other, I’m not sure this has any impact whatsoever on the shooter—other than him thinking to himself “what the hell is happening right now?”—as he launches the ball. It’s so much effort doing something that probably has no tangible positive impact. It will never not be hilarious. Jaylen for President.
6. I'm (Still) Not A Fan Of Julius Randle
It’s fair to label what Julius Randle is experiencing “a breakout year.” The 22-year-old is averaging 21.1 points and 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, with significant bumps in usage, block percentage, free-throw rate, and True Shooting. All this is promising and nice and may convince one of the league's 29 other teams to draw up a hefty offer sheet this summer.
But even beyond his strange spells of in-game apathy, Randle still doesn’t make any of his teammates better, turns the ball over a ton, and remains prone to clueless mistakes on the defensive end. Despite his new and improved body, bad habits and physical limitations feel like they will forever outweigh all the good he does.
Julius Randle is not a smart defender
Randle's outside shot is still cracked, and it’s unclear what his role/position would be on a good basketball team. A couple years ago I asked former Lakers head coach Byron Scott if he thought about experimenting with Randle at the five. He, somewhat understandably, began his response by laughing out loud. When you’re a big whose range doesn’t extend beyond the paint with a wingspan equal to Nick Young’s, it’s hard to be much help without a very specific cast of supporting skills at your side. Randle is more Kenneth Faried than Draymond Green.
In a fit of curiousity, I looked back at the 2014 draft class just to see how many players I could talk myself into taking ahead of Randle, who was selected seventh overall by the Lakers. I came up with 10 guys. In order of personal preference, they are:
10. Doug McDermott 9. Elfrid Payton 8. Jusuf Nurkic 7. Rodney Hood 6. T.J. Warren 5. Dario Saric 4. Clint Capela 3. Gary Harris 2. Zach LaVine 1. Nikola Jokic
Randle is still extremely young and there’s obviously plenty of time for him to round out the worrisome parts of his game and become a winning player, but so far all he's done is max out on strengths he already possessed.
The fact that Kyle Kuzma has played 159 more minutes in the same number of appearances is quite alarming. According to Cleaning the Glass, L.A.’s Expected Wins total drops by 11 games when Randle is on the court—by far the best number of his career.
(The following take is fresh out of an oven, but I think I’d also prefer Pascal Siakam.)
7. Tobias Harris vs. Robert Covington
Photo by John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
These two aren’t identical, but close enough to make a worthy comparison. They exist as similar 6’9” pivot points who play for a pair of hungry teams in an Eastern Conference. Both are now (wildly) exceeding individual expectations and, in the process, somewhat dramatically elevating their team’s ceiling.
Now here’s a fun question: As two versatile wings with varying yet proportional strengths and weaknesses, who would you rather have?
It literally feels like every time I flip to a Sixers or Pistons game, one of them is about to catch a kick-out pass and nail a three. Only three players have made more threes than Covington this year, and only six—including Covington—have made more than Harris. Also, only three players have been more accurate from beyond the arc than Harris, while just seven are more accurate than Covington. Long story short: Right now they’re two of the best three-point shooters alive.
Covington gets the edge as a defender, but isn’t nearly as effective creating his own shot. Nearly 25 percent fewer of his field goal attempts are unassisted relative to Harris. Covington turns 27 next month and Harris turns 26 this summer. According to Synergy Sports, Harris ranks in the 93rd percentile as an overall offensive weapon, while Covington is 96th. Neither passes the ball.
When you take the average annual salary of Covington’s reported extension, both earn about the same ($15-16 million). It’s hard to choose one over the other, but by roughly 0.5 degrees my personal taste shades towards Covington. Even though he may not have the same offensive impact when his outside shot doesn’t fall at a 50 percent clip, he’s more plug-and-play than Harris, and—debatably—more accepting of his role within his roster’s hierarchy.
Ideally, RoCo would get far more minutes at the four than he’s afforded in Philadelphia, while Harris is able to slide up and take advantage of slower bigs. Here are the numbers if you want to toggle around and see how close they are for yourself.
8. How Does T.J. Warren Do It?
T.J. Warren is a well-rounded offensive basketball player whose primary skill is the willingness to attack in myriad ways. Warren will back cut you to death. He’ll pull up off a high screen. He’ll Eurostep in the open floor. He’ll worm through a maze of screens. He’ll put back a missed jumper (even his own). He’ll post up smaller defenders. He’ll face up against stronger fours.
Very few of these qualities stand out or are aesthetically pleasing, but when jumbled together they work just fine. Phoenix’s offensive rating is 8.7 points per 100 possessions higher when Warren is on the floor, and the team is never more feeble than when he sits, in part because him turning the ball over is a weekly occurrence. (Warren doesn’t pass.)
The lack of three-point shooting is a scarlett letter, but this year he's still exploded for 40 points and 35 points in a pair of wins against the Washington Wizards and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively. Warren isn’t a minus defender, either. He moves around, hustles, and generally seems to understand how to execute Phoenix’s scheme.
It’s unclear how this diverse skill-set would fare in an environment where winning games is a priority, but until then Warren continues to stand out as a unique being in an increasingly homogenous league. Applaud him.
9. Believe It Or Not, The Kings Did Something Nice
The Sacramento Kings have stumbled into their own tier of incompetence, slightly below the Atlanta Hawks (a team that beat them by 46 points on Wednesday night), Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls, and Phoenix Suns. They shoot themselves in the foot on a regular basis—if Dave Joerger has to watch Willie Cauley-Stein leap out of position trying to steal an entry pass one more time he may pack back on all the weight he lost over the summer—and are less talented than their opponent every single night.
But this is the NBA, where even the worst of the worst is still the best of the best. Here’s one example, where Sacramento’s offensive execution trips up the Washington Wizards.
It's a standard split cut, but instead of coming together and then breaking off in seemingly random directions, George Hill spontaneously dives into the paint before the Wizards have time to deal with their assignment. John Wall and Brad Beal don’t realize they have to switch until it’s too late, and it forces Marcin Gortat to lean in the wrong direction. Garrett Temple breaks free for the open three. Good job, Kings. Good job.
10. Let's Measure Legs
Last Saturday night, I sat down to watch a few games with a good friend of mine who only casually dabbles in NBA basketball. About 20 minutes into Bucks/Lakers, he made an astute and obvious point: Players with long legs have a clear advantage over players with short legs, even if they pencil in at the exact same height.“Brandon Ingram’s waist is where his belly button should be.”
This isn't a new discovery, but it made me think about how wingspan has superseded height in the eyes of talent evaluators around the league. Along the same lines, do teams measure leg length the same way? I don’t know the exact answer—I’d guess there’s a 99% chance NBA teams do in fact measure legs from the waist down—but what I do know is the information isn’t listed on NBA.com, where everything from wingspan to hand width to body fat percentage is calculated. Same goes for DraftExpress.
Maybe the length of a player’s legs doesn’t matter, and useful information regarding how much ground they’re able to cover is already quantified with shuttle runs and lane agility drills. But given the obvious advantage someone like Ingram or Giannis Antetokounmpo has on drives to the rim, maybe stride-spans (a working title; I’m also a fan of glide-span) should be added to the long list of characteristics used to evaluate prospects and players.
11. On/Off Numbers Still Hate Avery Bradley
Photo by Aaron Doster - USA TODAY Sports
For the third straight year, Avery Bradley’s team is significantly better on defense when he isn’t on the floor. There are caveats and explanations—Bradley’s help defense is ineffective, he’s perpetually undersized, every starter on the Pistons has poor on/off numbers right now, etc.—but it’s still strange because Avery Bradley is the last person alive I’d want guarding me in a pickup game.
Last season, Bradley’s Real Plus-Minus ranked one spot below Lou Williams—someone opposing offenses intentionally abuse on a regular basis—and this year he’s 67th at his own position. This continues to be one of the more confusing stats vs. eye test battles in the NBA.
12. The New York Knicks Are the NBA’s Most Likable Team
I know everyone is talking about how fun the New York Knicks are, but speaking as someone who’s seen them play in person multiple times this season, I can confirm that yes, the rumors are true. They are an energetic, fresh, and endearing group, with spunky personality, youthful ignorance, and just enough talent to make it all feel respectable.
When you watch them play, you aren’t thinking about the yolk that’s permanently smeared across James Dolan’s forehead, or the disheartening cap sheet that serves as a reminder of their longstanding off-court dysfunction. Instead they play like a snake that’s shed its skin. Jeff Hornacek is liberated to run his own system. Kristaps Porzingis is able to shoot anytime he wants. (The shedding of Carmelo Anthony and Phil Jackson in one offseason has clearly had a profound impact on everyone involved.)
I wrote a couple weeks back that their newfound identity is essentially Porzingis + Putbacks. That’s still true, but their reason for success goes even deeper. Everything revolves around the franchise player. He is Beyonce surrounded by a dozen Kelly Rowlands. It’s a brittle dynamic that doesn’t work without everyone (including Tim Hardaway Jr.) embracing a back seat. From Lance Thomas to Enes Kanter to Jarrett Jack to Doug McDermott, everybody has.
They screen for each other. They drive and move the ball. They siege retreating defenses in transition. Their offense is an endless reel dish and swish, prompted by a group of castaways, retreads, and rookies. (Your personal definition of "loud noise" will forever change after you witness Frank Ntilikina make a jump shot inside Madison Square Garden.)
There will be time for big-picture analysis, and questions remain as to how they can/should build around Porzingis. But for the moment, let’s all enjoy this team for what it is: the NBA’s Cinderella.
The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let's Measure Legs published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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flauntpage · 7 years ago
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The Outlet Pass: Jazz Should Tank, Cavs Should Try; Let's Measure Legs
1. Eric Gordon Has Been Great, Chris Paul Can Make Him Better
Eric Gordon entered the league as a scorer who could shoot. As the years went on, injuries hit, his function on different teams began to change, and he transformed into a shooter who could score. But this year, with a spike in usage and his points per 36 minutes average at a career high, Gordon is balancing the two labels splendidly.
Chris Paul is expected to return on Thursday night, which will bump Gordon back to the bench and diminish his role just a bit. But even if Gordon can't average more than 22 points per game the rest of the way, Paul’s brilliant ability to lull defenses to sleep will help Gordon find even better options from behind the three-point line and at the rim (where he’s shooting a ridiculous 66 percent—up 10 points from last season).
Gordon has slayed defenses with pull-up threes, nailing an unsustainably awesome 41.5 percent of them on more attempts than everyone except James Harden and Damian Lillard. Those opportunities will dwindle, assuming he’s always on the court with Harden and/or Paul from this point forward.
But if we imagine Gordon assuming a similar role to what J.J. Redick had as Paul’s backcourt mate on the Los Angeles Clippers, all of a sudden Houston’s offense becomes even more dynamic in a half-court setting than it already is.
The Rockets already have actions designed to provide Gordon with solid catch-and-shoot looks, and he’s a pro’s pro at shaking his defender and creating separation before the pass hits his hands. But Paul sets the table in a way few others can. Here’s one example: a baseline inbounds play wherein Paul casually takes a dribble handoff and feigns like he’s going to flip the ball to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute over on the weakside.
Instead, in one motion he spins back to Redick (who pops off DeAndre Jordan’s screen) and feeds him for an open three. Defenses have to be alert during every second Paul has the ball. He’s a magician who thrives off misdirection. As the Rockets try to fit him into their offense (which already ranks fourth in points per half-court play), guys like Gordon will recalibrate their current responsibilities. It’s not an easy process, but Paul eventually will make life easier for everyone involved.
2. Dear Utah Jazz: Please Tank
The Utah Jazz are flailing in the face of a few unlucky events that have struck over the past few months. They were spurned by Gordon Hayward in free agency, watched Dante Exum suffer another soul-crushing preseason injury, and most recently lost Rudy Gobert for 4-6 weeks to a bruised right tibia. Even though Utah has been better on both sides of the floor when their franchise player is off the court, no team in the West (except to nobody's surprise the San Antonio Spurs) can compete without an All-NBA contributor in the lineup for an extended period.
The bad news gets worse after a quick glance at Utah's schedule, which turns into The Perfect Storm during Gobert’s expected absence. The easiest, broadest, and most annoying response here is to call for the Jazz to tank, but assuming they're ready to face the harsh realities of an impending rebuild, it's also the correct response.
Already submarined by an offense that can’t generate anything substantial sans Hayward, Utah’s focus now that making the playoffs is incredibly unlikely should be moprhing into sellers at the trade deadline (moving on from Derrick Favors’ expiring contract is what most point to as a no-brainer, but what could they get for Rodney Hood or Joe Ingles?).
They own all their draft picks and have one of the 10 oldest rosters in the league. This is a perfect chance to tear down a group that's going nowhere and build around a Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, 2018 lotto pick core. It's not fun, but opportunity is knocking on Utah’s door; to ignore it now could cost them down the line.
3. Why Is Effort Still An Issue In Cleveland?
Kevin Love has spent the last three seasons as a scapegoat. Whenever things look bad in Cleveland, Option A is to fire up the trade machine and scrounge around for semi-realistic transactions that would theoretically improve the Cavaliers' championship chances and rid them of Love.
Even though they play, at times, like a grotesque abomination, the Annual Round of Kevin Love Trade Speculation has yet to pick up steam for a few reasons: A) integral Cavs aren’t healthy, B) Love’s value isn’t nearly what it used to be, and C) it’s not even Thanksgiving. Cleveland’s defense is atrocious whether Love is on the floor or not, as a standalone center or beside another beefy body in the frontcourt.
This isn't Love's fault, and there are some things he can’t help. Athletic limitations put a hard cap on how effective he can be trying to prevent the other team from scoring. That, combined with a supporting cast of mostly below-average individual defenders, makes his margin for error paper thin.
For the most part, he makes up for it with intelligence and admirable effort—rotating over to take a charge against Dwight Howard, as Love did on Wednesday night, deserves a medal. Knowing opponents plan to attack him relentlessly in the pick-and-roll, he shuffles his feet and executes whatever coverage Ty Lue has deemed appropriate. But for whatever reason, one seemingly inconsequential and unrelated sequence during last week’s loss to the Houston Rockets stands out in my mind.
Midway through the first quarter, the Rockets deflected a pass and sent the ball rolling towards Cleveland’s baseline. As its intended recipient, Love watched it go out of bounds instead of sprinting to pick it up. It was a simple lack of hustle that forced Cleveland to inbound the ball from beneath its own basket, and allowed Houston to set up its defense with a full-court press. Here’s what happened next:
Harden went on to draw a foul at the rim. This criticism might come off as a bit harsh; on its face it has nothing to do with Cleveland’s wretched defense. But effort matters! And moments like this one are a symptom of bad habits that will come back to bite the Cavaliers when it matters most.
4. Lauri Markkanen’s Wrists Make All The Difference
Everyone who made fun of the Chicago Bulls (my hand is raised) for not just trading Jimmy Butler, but also selecting Lauri Markkanen—every draft prognosticator who I read leading into the 2017 draft's punching bag—has to do 25 pushups.
Even more impressive than the rookie’s startling per game averages (14 points and seven rebounds isn’t bad!) is a shot release that’s faster than a snapping rubber band. Only four players in the league are launching more threes per game with a touch time between 0-2 seconds.
A seven-footer who can shoot threes is still one of the finest luxuries any team can have. The space he figures to provide for a very long time will make life easier for guards like Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine as they come off high screens, and, down the line, could even make Chicago a more attractive free agency destination for ball-handlers who enjoy wide driving lanes. (According to Synergy Sports, Markkanen is currently the NBA’s most efficient pick-and-pop scorer. Anyone who’s ever watched J.J. Barea play basketball with Dirk Nowitzki knows how enjoyable this can be.)
Beyond the ancillary benefits, Markkanen’s quick release sharpens how convenient he can truly be. Unlike uniquely useful yet limited stretch bigs like Kelly Olynyk—someone who will pump fake his way into a phone booth whenever a defender’s closeout gets too close for comfort—Chicago’s rookie combines his height with crackling wrists and enough confidence to fire away even when he isn’t wide open. That’s all very nice to see, and could speed up Chicago's rebuild.
5. Jaylen Brown’s Closeouts Are Hysterically Passive Aggressive
The Celtics allow 99.1 points per 100 possessions when Jaylen Brown is off the court. In almost any other context that number would be a bad thing. But in Boston, where the best defense in the NBA is currently being played, that’s the highest on/off defensive rating for any individual on the team. (The Celtics only allow 94.2 points per 100 possessions with Brown in the game.)
Even if his strength, length, quickness, and ability to walk on water theoretically makes people think he’s one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball, the 21-year-old is still a work in progress who hasn't quite reached the All-Defensive team level he is striving for. He’s fouling less than a year ago, but is still antsy on the ball, prone to falling for ball fakes; all too eager to show off his leaping ability when staying grounded is the better call.
Here’s what Brown had to say after he got a key stop against DeMar DeRozan at the end of Boston’s win last Sunday: “He’ll pump fake and pump fake and pump fake until he gets you off your feet. I’m thinking like, ‘He’s gotta be shooting one of these (bleeps).’ But he’ll keep pump faking and pump faking and pump faking, and you have to do a good job of staying down.”
This leads us to his closeout technique, which, in all honestly, makes me laugh out loud just about every time I see it. Instead of leaning in at a diagonal angle to try and contest the shooter or even block the shot, Brown halts his momentum, bends his knees, and jumps straight in the air, sometimes with both arms stretched high above his head.
On one hand, he eliminates any chance of committing a foul and can’t be condemned for laziness. On the other, I’m not sure this has any impact whatsoever on the shooter—other than him thinking to himself “what the hell is happening right now?”—as he launches the ball. It’s so much effort doing something that probably has no tangible positive impact. It will never not be hilarious. Jaylen for President.
6. I'm (Still) Not A Fan Of Julius Randle
It’s fair to label what Julius Randle is experiencing “a breakout year.” The 22-year-old is averaging 21.1 points and 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, with significant bumps in usage, block percentage, free-throw rate, and True Shooting. All this is promising and nice and may convince one of the league's 29 other teams to draw up a hefty offer sheet this summer.
But even beyond his strange spells of in-game apathy, Randle still doesn’t make any of his teammates better, turns the ball over a ton, and remains prone to clueless mistakes on the defensive end. Despite his new and improved body, bad habits and physical limitations feel like they will forever outweigh all the good he does.
Julius Randle is not a smart defender
Randle's outside shot is still cracked, and it’s unclear what his role/position would be on a good basketball team. A couple years ago I asked former Lakers head coach Byron Scott if he thought about experimenting with Randle at the five. He, somewhat understandably, began his response by laughing out loud. When you’re a big whose range doesn’t extend beyond the paint with a wingspan equal to Nick Young’s, it’s hard to be much help without a very specific cast of supporting skills at your side. Randle is more Kenneth Faried than Draymond Green.
In a fit of curiousity, I looked back at the 2014 draft class just to see how many players I could talk myself into taking ahead of Randle, who was selected seventh overall by the Lakers. I came up with 10 guys. In order of personal preference, they are:
10. Doug McDermott 9. Elfrid Payton 8. Jusuf Nurkic 7. Rodney Hood 6. T.J. Warren 5. Dario Saric 4. Clint Capela 3. Gary Harris 2. Zach LaVine 1. Nikola Jokic
Randle is still extremely young and there’s obviously plenty of time for him to round out the worrisome parts of his game and become a winning player, but so far all he's done is max out on strengths he already possessed.
The fact that Kyle Kuzma has played 159 more minutes in the same number of appearances is quite alarming. According to Cleaning the Glass, L.A.’s Expected Wins total drops by 11 games when Randle is on the court—by far the best number of his career.
(The following take is fresh out of an oven, but I think I’d also prefer Pascal Siakam.)
7. Tobias Harris vs. Robert Covington
Photo by John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
These two aren’t identical, but close enough to make a worthy comparison. They exist as similar 6’9” pivot points who play for a pair of hungry teams in an Eastern Conference. Both are now (wildly) exceeding individual expectations and, in the process, somewhat dramatically elevating their team’s ceiling.
Now here’s a fun question: As two versatile wings with varying yet proportional strengths and weaknesses, who would you rather have?
It literally feels like every time I flip to a Sixers or Pistons game, one of them is about to catch a kick-out pass and nail a three. Only three players have made more threes than Covington this year, and only six—including Covington—have made more than Harris. Also, only three players have been more accurate from beyond the arc than Harris, while just seven are more accurate than Covington. Long story short: Right now they’re two of the best three-point shooters alive.
Covington gets the edge as a defender, but isn’t nearly as effective creating his own shot. Nearly 25 percent fewer of his field goal attempts are unassisted relative to Harris. Covington turns 27 next month and Harris turns 26 this summer. According to Synergy Sports, Harris ranks in the 93rd percentile as an overall offensive weapon, while Covington is 96th. Neither passes the ball.
When you take the average annual salary of Covington’s reported extension, both earn about the same ($15-16 million). It’s hard to choose one over the other, but by roughly 0.5 degrees my personal taste shades towards Covington. Even though he may not have the same offensive impact when his outside shot doesn’t fall at a 50 percent clip, he’s more plug-and-play than Harris, and—debatably—more accepting of his role within his roster’s hierarchy.
Ideally, RoCo would get far more minutes at the four than he’s afforded in Philadelphia, while Harris is able to slide up and take advantage of slower bigs. Here are the numbers if you want to toggle around and see how close they are for yourself.
8. How Does T.J. Warren Do It?
T.J. Warren is a well-rounded offensive basketball player whose primary skill is the willingness to attack in myriad ways. Warren will back cut you to death. He’ll pull up off a high screen. He’ll Eurostep in the open floor. He’ll worm through a maze of screens. He’ll put back a missed jumper (even his own). He’ll post up smaller defenders. He’ll face up against stronger fours.
Very few of these qualities stand out or are aesthetically pleasing, but when jumbled together they work just fine. Phoenix’s offensive rating is 8.7 points per 100 possessions higher when Warren is on the floor, and the team is never more feeble than when he sits, in part because him turning the ball over is a weekly occurrence. (Warren doesn’t pass.)
The lack of three-point shooting is a scarlett letter, but this year he's still exploded for 40 points and 35 points in a pair of wins against the Washington Wizards and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively. Warren isn’t a minus defender, either. He moves around, hustles, and generally seems to understand how to execute Phoenix’s scheme.
It’s unclear how this diverse skill-set would fare in an environment where winning games is a priority, but until then Warren continues to stand out as a unique being in an increasingly homogenous league. Applaud him.
9. Believe It Or Not, The Kings Did Something Nice
The Sacramento Kings have stumbled into their own tier of incompetence, slightly below the Atlanta Hawks (a team that beat them by 46 points on Wednesday night), Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls, and Phoenix Suns. They shoot themselves in the foot on a regular basis—if Dave Joerger has to watch Willie Cauley-Stein leap out of position trying to steal an entry pass one more time he may pack back on all the weight he lost over the summer—and are less talented than their opponent every single night.
But this is the NBA, where even the worst of the worst is still the best of the best. Here’s one example, where Sacramento’s offensive execution trips up the Washington Wizards.
It's a standard split cut, but instead of coming together and then breaking off in seemingly random directions, George Hill spontaneously dives into the paint before the Wizards have time to deal with their assignment. John Wall and Brad Beal don’t realize they have to switch until it’s too late, and it forces Marcin Gortat to lean in the wrong direction. Garrett Temple breaks free for the open three. Good job, Kings. Good job.
10. Let's Measure Legs
Last Saturday night, I sat down to watch a few games with a good friend of mine who only casually dabbles in NBA basketball. About 20 minutes into Bucks/Lakers, he made an astute and obvious point: Players with long legs have a clear advantage over players with short legs, even if they pencil in at the exact same height.“Brandon Ingram’s waist is where his belly button should be.”
This isn't a new discovery, but it made me think about how wingspan has superseded height in the eyes of talent evaluators around the league. Along the same lines, do teams measure leg length the same way? I don’t know the exact answer—I’d guess there’s a 99% chance NBA teams do in fact measure legs from the waist down—but what I do know is the information isn’t listed on NBA.com, where everything from wingspan to hand width to body fat percentage is calculated. Same goes for DraftExpress.
Maybe the length of a player’s legs doesn’t matter, and useful information regarding how much ground they’re able to cover is already quantified with shuttle runs and lane agility drills. But given the obvious advantage someone like Ingram or Giannis Antetokounmpo has on drives to the rim, maybe stride-spans (a working title; I’m also a fan of glide-span) should be added to the long list of characteristics used to evaluate prospects and players.
11. On/Off Numbers Still Hate Avery Bradley
Photo by Aaron Doster - USA TODAY Sports
For the third straight year, Avery Bradley’s team is significantly better on defense when he isn’t on the floor. There are caveats and explanations—Bradley’s help defense is ineffective, he’s perpetually undersized, every starter on the Pistons has poor on/off numbers right now, etc.—but it’s still strange because Avery Bradley is the last person alive I’d want guarding me in a pickup game.
Last season, Bradley’s Real Plus-Minus ranked one spot below Lou Williams—someone opposing offenses intentionally abuse on a regular basis—and this year he’s 67th at his own position. This continues to be one of the more confusing stats vs. eye test battles in the NBA.
12. The New York Knicks Are the NBA’s Most Likable Team
I know everyone is talking about how fun the New York Knicks are, but speaking as someone who’s seen them play in person multiple times this season, I can confirm that yes, the rumors are true. They are an energetic, fresh, and endearing group, with spunky personality, youthful ignorance, and just enough talent to make it all feel respectable.
When you watch them play, you aren’t thinking about the yolk that’s permanently smeared across James Dolan’s forehead, or the disheartening cap sheet that serves as a reminder of their longstanding off-court dysfunction. Instead they play like a snake that’s shed its skin. Jeff Hornacek is liberated to run his own system. Kristaps Porzingis is able to shoot anytime he wants. (The shedding of Carmelo Anthony and Phil Jackson in one offseason has clearly had a profound impact on everyone involved.)
I wrote a couple weeks back that their newfound identity is essentially Porzingis + Putbacks. That’s still true, but their reason for success goes even deeper. Everything revolves around the franchise player. He is Beyonce surrounded by a dozen Kelly Rowlands. It’s a brittle dynamic that doesn’t work without everyone (including Tim Hardaway Jr.) embracing a back seat. From Lance Thomas to Enes Kanter to Jarrett Jack to Doug McDermott, everybody has.
They screen for each other. They drive and move the ball. They siege retreating defenses in transition. Their offense is an endless reel dish and swish, prompted by a group of castaways, retreads, and rookies. (Your personal definition of "loud noise" will forever change after you witness Frank Ntilikina make a jump shot inside Madison Square Garden.)
There will be time for big-picture analysis, and questions remain as to how they can/should build around Porzingis. But for the moment, let’s all enjoy this team for what it is: the NBA’s Cinderella.
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