#the initial forecast was that it was going to downgrade today
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So uh, I'm genuinely starting to feel nervous about this hurricane...
#the initial forecast was that it was going to downgrade today#but it's still cat 4 and yeah I'm starting to feel a little scared and anxious#oh gods I can't stop thinking about all the ppl and the animals who could potentially be affected#and I'm so worried about my mom because she can't walk rn oh gods#needless to say I can't sleep#okay I need to chill
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A (rainy) day in Vancouver - Sunday, September 9, 2018
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2018
While we were asleep the night prior by 9/9:30pm Pacific (12/12:30am Eastern at home), it was a fitful night with a hard pillow and under-performing air conditioner. Thus, we gave up by 5am Pacific (8am home) - & it's still dark out side. Flying west is usually easier for me, but sadly not this time.
Our plan for today was to take a hop on/hop off bus for Kara to show me the sights of the Vancouver. However, with the continuous forecast of 100% rain and having not slept great, our plans are being downgraded.
We hung out in the room until around 8:30am since Granville Island Public Market would open at 9am. We decided to walk since it was maybe just sprinkling. We accidentally missed our turn to get to the ferry and instead realized we had walked a major bridge, no longer needing the ferry.
It added time and distance, but frankly we needed the steps. Since it was so early, very luckily the Public Market wasn't yet busy. We did an initial walk-through and then ventured to the Arts area.
I bought a few postcards from a store selling only interesting postcards, so that checked a must-do from my list, but forgot I was in another country and would need special stamps!
Even though we weren't too hungry, we decided to get lunch and mutually decided to share a Corn Chowder Pot Pie in a mug (from A La Mode Pie, who sadly doesn’t have a website or option to ship!) since we'd be getting other “treats”.
The place was now packed and it was raining outside! We were lucky to find a bench to share space with a cocktail table under an outdoor awning to dine. It was cool enough the steam gloriously rose from the pot pie. The croissant was buttery & flaky and the chowder smooth & creamy. It was probably the best corn chowder of my life!
We realized we'd finished lunch at 11:45am!
We then went to Stuart’s, where I got a Chocolate Decadence cake and Kara got a blueberry scone (for tomorrow's breakfast).
Next we selected Canadian boxed chocolates & truffles from ChocolaTas. My selections were Maple Pecan (when in Canada!), Dark Chocolate Orange, Dark Chocolate Vanilla, and Dark Chocolate. (See a theme?!) The second box will be a treat for Mom.
Then we headed back to the free samples of Bon Mano Bon to purchase some amazing natural, organic Chocolate Almond Crunch granola. (This stuff is seriously so good that I already looked at ordering online, but wow is it expensive!) Kara also bought chocolate covered coffee-beans.
Finally, we ended at A Bread Affair where I got a giant chocolate croissant (for breakfast tomorrow) and cookies (Best Freakin’ Peanut Butter Awesomeness and Double Valrhona Chocolate & Brown Butter).
The rain was to continue into the night and we knew the lacking sleep would catch up with us quick. So we skipped going to Science World (& their special Pixar exhibit!) as well as finding our way to Ganache Patisserie! (That tells you how tired I was!) Kara had asked where to find a taxi, but we didn't get a useful response. So we walked back to the main street away from Granville Market and quickly accepted the reality that randomly getting a taxi wasn't going to happen. So we took a breath, channeled our marching band days, put up our hoods, and made the long journey back whence we came.
After this long & mostly uphill trek, we arrived back at the hotel damp and sweaty a bit after 1pm. We learned we'd already complete over 13,000 steps (including over an hour in “exercise mode”, so we collapsed for the rest of the afternoon.
Eventually we dashed across the drive for a quick bagel & turkey sandwich from Tim Horton’s with some treats from Granville Island. During “Mission:Impossible Rogue Nation” and the “Miss American” competition, we reorganized & packed.
Next up: All aboard the Disney Wonder!
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Headlines
Extra unemployment aid expires as virus threatens new states (AP) As public health officials warned Friday that the coronavirus posed new risks to parts of the Midwest and South, enhanced federal payments that helped avert financial ruin for millions of unemployed Americans were set to expire—leaving threadbare safety nets offered by individual states to catch them. Since early in the pandemic, the federal government has added $600 to the weekly unemployment checks that states send. That increase ends this week, and with Congress still haggling over next steps, most states will not be able to offer nearly as much. In addition to the end of the $600 payments, federal protections against evictions also are set to expire.
The pandemic has damaged the appeal of studying in the United States for some international students (Washington Post) Twenty-four-year-old Sehr Taneja, a master’s student at the Harvard Kennedy School, had always seen the United States as “the gold standard” for education. But now she’s more concerned about contracting the novel coronavirus or facing deportation than the rigor of her course load. Back home in India after leaving Boston in March, she’s deciding whether to defer her second year. Such worries over health care, immigration and visa status are drivers behind an expected drop in enrollment among international students at U.S. institutions, and have struck a blow to the standing of the United States as a coveted destination for overseas study, according to initial data gathered by organizations in the global education sector. More than 1 million international students studied or conducted research at U.S. universities last year, or worked through a postgraduate visa program, according to the New York-based Institute for International Education. In March, when the coronavirus shut down much of the world, around 90 percent of those enrolled remained in the country. In the months since, President Trump imposed travel bans and stoked uncertainty through whiplash student visa policy changes as coronavirus case numbers continued to spike.
Federal agents use tear gas to clear rowdy Portland protest (AP) Thousands of protesters gathered outside the federal courthouse in Portland, Oregon, into the early hours Saturday, shooting fireworks at the building as plumes of tear gas dispensed by U.S. agents, lingered above. The demonstration went until federal agents entered the crowd around 2:30 a.m. and marched in a line down the street, clearing remaining protesters with tear gas at close range. They also extinguished a large fire in the street outside the courthouse. Portland has been roiled by nightly protests for two months following the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis. President Donald Trump said he sent federal agents to Oregon’s largest city to halt the unrest but state and local officials say they are making the situation worse. The clashes in Portland have further inflamed the nation’s political tensions and triggered a crisis over the limits of federal power as Trump moves to send U.S. officers to other Democratic-led cities he says are violent.
Hanna's rain remains biggest threat to virus hot spot Texas (AP) South Texas braced for flooding Sunday after Hanna roared ashore as a hurricane the day before, bringing winds that lashed the Gulf Coast with rain and storm surge to a part of the country trying to cope with a spike in cases of the coronavirus. The first hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic cyclone season made landfall twice as a Category 1 storm on Saturday afternoon within the span of little over an hour. The first landfall happened at around 5 p.m. about 15 miles (24 kilometers) north of Port Mansfield, which is about 130 miles (209 km) south of Corpus Christi. The second landfall took place nearby in eastern Kenedy County. Hanna came ashore with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph (145 kph). Forecasters downgraded Hanna to a tropical storm early Sunday. Forecasters said Hanna could bring 6 to 12 inches (15 to 30 centimeters) of rain through Sunday night — with isolated totals of 18 inches (46 centimeters) — in addition to coastal swells that could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Power and the space it takes (Bloomberg) Wind and solar generation takes more space physically than more traditional means of generating electricity, with 7.6 hectares per megawatt needed for wind and 1.7 hectares per megawatt needed for solar. Worldwide, there are 650 gigawatts of solar and 644 gigawatts of wind commissioned that cover an area of 52,000 square kilometers, or roughly the combined size of Vermont and New Hampshire. All told, about 8 percent of global electricity generation is from wind and solar, and with onshore wind and solar projected to account for 48 percent of global electricity production by 2050, the global area of land required will encompass something like 423,000 square kilometers.
Thousands of families evicted in Sao Paulo amid pandemic (AP) Jussara de Jesus never thought that her family would live in a shack. But work as a hairdresser dried for up after the novel coronavirus hit Brazilian metropolis Sao Paulo. She couldn’t afford $150 a month in rent for the small house where she and her three children lived. Three months ago, they were evicted. They moved to Jardim Julieta, one of Brazil’s newest favelas, or shantytowns. With more than 800 shacks of wood and plastic sheeting, there are already several thousand people living in what used to be a parking lot for trucks in one of the poorest areas of the city. The growing number of evictions driven by Brazil’s COVID-19 pandemic is worsening an already serious housing problem in the country. Before the pandemic, local authorities counted more than 200,000 families waiting for adequate housing in Sao Paulo, a city of 12 million. The human rights and research group LabCidade estimates more than 2,000 families have lost their homes in Sao Paulo state since March, with another 1,000 facing the same risk in upcoming weeks. It is a high figure for a state with 46 million residents, about the same population as Spain.
Mass resignations at Hungary’s largest news site as press freedom slides (Washington Post) The editorial board and 70 staff members at Hungary’s largest news site dramatically resigned Friday, as journalists battle to keep their editorial independence under the increasingly autocratic rule of Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The mass resignations of almost the entire staff of Budapest-based Index.hu followed the sacking of editor in chief Szabolcs Dull, who warned in June that the site’s independence was at risk after changes to its ownership structure. It marks another blow to Hungary’s shrinking independent media. In his 10 years in power, Orban has been accused of systematically stifling the press, bringing news outlets under the control of his loyalists and passing laws that hinder critical journalism. Since 2018, Hungary has slipped 16 places on the World Press Freedom Index, making it one of the worst countries for media freedom in Europe.
Ancient Greek theaters return to life in pandemic (AP) Lights! Crickets. Birds. Bats. Action! The ancient theater of Epidaurus, renowned for its acoustics, has reopened for a limited number of open-air performances, with organizers planning a live-streamed event Saturday for the first time in the Greek monument’s 2,300-year history. Live concerts and events have been mostly canceled in Greece this summer due to the coronavirus pandemic. But the Culture Ministry allowed the Epidaurus Theater in southern Greece and the Odeon of Herodes Atticus in Athens to host performances under strict safety guidelines.
Turkey and Greece exchange harsh words over Hagia Sophia prayers (AP) Turkey and Greece exchanged harsh words on Saturday over the conversion of Istanbul’s Hagia Sophia into a mosque, a day after Islamic prayers were held at the ancient site for the first time in nine decades. Greek criticism of the move to convert the site from a museum has been scathing, underlining tense ties between Greece and Turkey. Church bells tolled in mourning across Greece on Friday as Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan joined prayers at the building. “Greece showed once again its enmity towards Islam and Turkey with the excuse of reacting to Hagia Sophia Mosque being opened to prayers,” Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said in a written statement on Saturday. The Greek Foreign Ministry responded with its own statement, saying “the international community of the 21st century is stunned to observe the religious and nationalist fanatic ramblings of today’s Turkey.” Friday’s ceremony sealed Erdogan’s ambition to restore Muslim worship at the site, which most Greeks view as central to their Orthodox Christian religion. Greece and Turkey disagree on a range of issues from airspace to maritime zones and ethnically split Cyprus. This week they also exchanged barbs over the delimitation of their continental shelves in the eastern Mediterranean, an area thought to be rich in natural resources.
How Syrians Are Reshaping German Society (Der Spiegel) There’s a problem with German bread. It crumbles when you use it to mop up fried eggplant or bulgur salad from a plate. It’s also difficult to fill with meat, hummus and sauces. t’s no surprise, then, that when asked what the most popular item in his grocery store is, Mohammad Hanawi, 20, immediately answers with “chubs arabi,” the Arab pita bread. Hanawi’s father opened his grocery store in January. He says it’s going great, and that beans, sausages and pickled grape leaves were also popular. “Syrian things. That’s what people were missing here.” Syrians now represent the largest Muslim minority in Germany after Turks. Since 2010, their numbers in the country have risen from around 30,000 to almost 800,000. Most arrived as refugees after the outbreak of the civil war, and they are reshaping the country, much like Turkish migrants did for decades. Between 2015 and 2018, Syrian women in Germany gave birth to over 65,000 babies. A lot of Syrians have now been living in Germany for so long that they will be able to transition their time-limited protection status into permanent residency authorization this year as long as they are deemed to be well integrated. At that point, they are no longer considered refugees.
The World’s Most Technologically Sophisticated Genocide Is Happening in Xinjiang (Foreign Policy) Two recent disturbing events may finally awaken the world to the scale and horror of the atrocities being committed against the Uighurs, a mostly secular Muslim ethnic minority, in Xinjiang, China. One is an authoritative report documenting the systematic sterilization of Uighur women. The other was the seizure by U.S. Customs and Border Protection of 13 tons of products made from human hair suspected of being forcibly removed from Uighurs imprisoned in concentration camps. Both events evoke chilling parallels to past atrocities elsewhere, forced sterilization of minorities, disabled, and Indigenous people, and the image of the glass display of mountains of hair preserved at Auschwitz.
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Titanic Earnings; Choppy Sailing; Cinemas Failing
Titanic Earnings; Choppy Sailing; Cinemas Failing:
A Titanic Earnings Season
The markets rallied sharply last week in anticipation that things are starting to get better. And, admittedly they are … where the pandemic is concerned.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the outbreak is finally stabilizing across the U.S. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, believes that the U.S. could ease travel restrictions as early as next month.
This is all good news. It means that life will return to normalcy relatively soon. However, this is just the tip of the pandemic iceberg where the U.S. economy is concerned.
This week marks the beginning of what’s possibly the most important corporate earnings season that many investors will face. An earnings season of Titanic proportions … if you will.
In the past two months, nearly every major U.S. company has issued a guidance warning revolving around COVID-19. General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), etcetera, etcetera…
Right now, Wall Street is fully prepared for a $#!% storm when it comes to corporate earnings for 2020’s first quarter. What it isn’t prepared for is guidance for the rest of the year and beyond.
“It’s been remarkable to watch markets just climb higher and higher,” Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, told The Wall Street Journal. “We haven’t really seen markets reflect the full extent of the damage that coronavirus is having to corporate profitability.”
Right now, analysts project a 9% year-over-year decline in corporate earnings for all of 2020, according to data from FactSet Research Systems Inc. (NYSE: FDS). That’s a major shift from prior forecasts for 9.2% growth for the year. And it could get much worse.
“My guess is somewhere between a half and three-quarters of analysts have yet to take a knife to their earnings [estimates] because they don’t know what knife to take to them and how deep to cut,” said Nuveen Chief Equity Strategist Bob Doll.
With the start of the first-quarter earnings season just hours away, we’re about to find out.
The Takeaway:
Several years ago, while walking with our two children, my wife slipped on a patch of ice and shattered her ankle. In an attempt to keep our kids safe, she tried to remain standing on that ankle and keep walking. She’s always been one to push through the pain. She’s a stubborn one, and I love her for it.
The surgery took two hours and included a box of hardware that even Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) would be proud of.
But, while patching up my lovely wife took mere hours, the rehabilitation needed to return to normal lasted roughly a year. It turns out that trying to stay on her feet did more damage to her tendons and muscle motor control than doctors initially realized.
Right now, Wall Street finds itself in a very similar situation.
In March, the pandemic shattered the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve, the U.S. government and the Department of the Treasury all provided emergency assistance, employing their own exceedingly large box of “hardware” to fix the problem.
Relieved investors tried to stay on their feet, encouraged by the lowest stock prices seen in years. The government’s surgery was over. Everything should be fine now, right?
But, as with my wife’s ankle, the U.S. economy won’t be fully healed anytime soon.
This earnings season will likely uncover quite a bit about how extensive the economy’s “tissue” damage really is. It will take months of therapy before we see anything like the pre-pandemic bull market.
And when that truth finally comes to light — likely within the next couple of weeks — investors are in for a rude awakening.
The Good: 5G Can’t Melt Steel Beams
Apple is finally ready to take a bite out of the 5G market.
According to the infamous “people familiar with the matter,” Apple is rolling out redesigned iPhones with 5G capability this year. There’s a total of four new iPhones reportedly in the making: two to replace the flagship iPhone 11 Pro and Pro Max models, as well as two low-end models to replace the iPhone 11 base model.
The new phones will reportedly forgo the 11’s curved screen design in favor of flat stainless steel edges — a more iPad Pro-like design, according to the people who shall not be named.
The leaked info goes on about the iPhone designs more in detail … but, honestly, aside from the 5G functionality, the only real info of note is that there will be a bump in processing speed. Again, not a big shocker. But it does put the iPhone on track for more augmented-reality content and boosts the potential for artificial intelligence implementation in the devices.
I guess we could distill this Apple news down to “5G iPhones Coming! (Allegedly),” because that’s really the only major change in the new iPhones. An expected change … but a welcome one, for sure.
Oh, and no, 5G does not cause COVID-19. Just stop with this nonsense, please.
(Editor’s Note — Not sure where to start with investing in 5G tech? Click here now!)
The Bad: Choppy Waters
Great Stuff reader David R. asked us over the weekend: “What about the class action lawsuit against CCL? What is that going to do to the stock and dividends?”
In case you weren’t aware, a class-action lawsuit was filed recently against Carnival Corp.’s (NYSE: CCL) Costa Cruises subsidiary. The claim alleges that the company failed to warn passengers about potential exposure to COVID-19, and that Carnival failed to take appropriate precautions.
Given that Carnival has faced several of these class actions before — most recently involving robocalls — I don’t think the lawsuit by itself is that much of a concern for investors.
However, the CDC last week extended its “No Sail Order” for all cruise ships for an additional three months. Combined with a recent offering of 71.9 million CCL shares, this No Sail Order could be very problematic for Carnival investors — especially since the company was left out of the U.S. government’s $2 trillion bailout package.
So, I don’t think the class-action suit is a major problem right now. Carnival has much bigger fish to fry — like just trying to stay afloat.
The Ugly: AMC’s Rocky Horror Show
I hope you’re not waiting with antici … pation for movie theater stocks to come back. Nothing short of a time warp will return this industry to normal after the pandemic shutdown.
If you want proof, look no further than industry bigwig AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMC). The company’s silver screens have been dark since mid-March due to travel restrictions and quarantine orders. As a result, AMC reportedly contacted the law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges over the weekend to explore a potential chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.
This morning, analysts at both MKM Partners and Loop Capital downgraded AMC shares, citing a potential bankruptcy. Loop cut AMC to hold, while MKM says to sell the shares.
“Based on our view that theaters will be closed until at least August and our belief that AMC lacks the liquidity to stay afloat until that time, we expect the company will soon be faced with filing for bankruptcy,” MKM said in a note to clients.
If we’re being honest here, the movie theater model was already headed to the graveyard.
The companies make more money off of concessions and add-ons than actual movie tickets. Furthermore, direct-to-streaming releases of blockbuster films is already happening at Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) and Amazon.com Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AMZN) Prime Video.
Now that the major movie studios are getting a taste of that sweet, sweet direct-to-streaming cash without the silver screen distribution costs, the industry may never be the same again.
Today’s Chart of the Week comes courtesy of Earnings Whispers. You can see that there are quite a few major banking names on this week’s list, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC):
But the real story on the U.S. economy will come from names like Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (Nasdaq: BBBY), Fastenal Co. (Nasdaq: FAST) and J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (Nasdaq: JBHT). So, while the mainstream financial media focuses on banking giants, keep your eyes peeled for retail, manufacturing and transport earnings and guidance.
Remember: Great Stuff will be here to help make sure you don’t miss those important reports!
Great Stuff: Sleep on Your Toes
If you’ve followed Great Stuff the past few weeks, you won’t be caught off guard when the dogs of the Dow start howling. And if you’re the bargain hunting type, the time will soon come to start prowling.
When you’re on the Street, you’ve got to be able to pick out the easy meat with your eyes closed.
When volatility hits and stocks trade for pennies on the dollar, that’s your time to strike … when the moment is right without thinking. And you don’t have to keep one eye looking over your shoulder … as long as you hold solid, well-run companies, that is.
That’s why you need a guide … a way to keep from going hog-wild in this pigsty. You need Banyan Hill’s own Charles Mizrahi.
Instead of seeing stocks as just heaps of data or wiggles and jiggles on a chart (as some folks do), you’ll see how to spot bona fide game-changing businesses. In fact, Charles’ approach has given him runs where he picked 36 stocks in a row that went up 50% or more!
Click here to learn about Charles’ approach.
Don’t forget, you can always check Great Stuff out on social media: Facebook and Twitter.
Until next time, be Great!
Regards,
Joseph Hargett
Editor, Great Stuff
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Link
A Titanic Earnings Season
The markets rallied sharply last week in anticipation that things are starting to get better. And, admittedly they are … where the pandemic is concerned.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the outbreak is finally stabilizing across the U.S. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, believes that the U.S. could ease travel restrictions as early as next month.
This is all good news. It means that life will return to normalcy relatively soon. However, this is just the tip of the pandemic iceberg where the U.S. economy is concerned.
This week marks the beginning of what’s possibly the most important corporate earnings season that many investors will face. An earnings season of Titanic proportions … if you will.
In the past two months, nearly every major U.S. company has issued a guidance warning revolving around COVID-19. General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), etcetera, etcetera…
Right now, Wall Street is fully prepared for a $#!% storm when it comes to corporate earnings for 2020’s first quarter. What it isn’t prepared for is guidance for the rest of the year and beyond.
“It’s been remarkable to watch markets just climb higher and higher,” Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, told The Wall Street Journal. “We haven’t really seen markets reflect the full extent of the damage that coronavirus is having to corporate profitability.”
Right now, analysts project a 9% year-over-year decline in corporate earnings for all of 2020, according to data from FactSet Research Systems Inc. (NYSE: FDS). That’s a major shift from prior forecasts for 9.2% growth for the year. And it could get much worse.
“My guess is somewhere between a half and three-quarters of analysts have yet to take a knife to their earnings [estimates] because they don’t know what knife to take to them and how deep to cut,” said Nuveen Chief Equity Strategist Bob Doll.
With the start of the first-quarter earnings season just hours away, we’re about to find out.
The Takeaway:
Several years ago, while walking with our two children, my wife slipped on a patch of ice and shattered her ankle. In an attempt to keep our kids safe, she tried to remain standing on that ankle and keep walking. She’s always been one to push through the pain. She’s a stubborn one, and I love her for it.
The surgery took two hours and included a box of hardware that even Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) would be proud of.
But, while patching up my lovely wife took mere hours, the rehabilitation needed to return to normal lasted roughly a year. It turns out that trying to stay on her feet did more damage to her tendons and muscle motor control than doctors initially realized.
Right now, Wall Street finds itself in a very similar situation.
In March, the pandemic shattered the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve, the U.S. government and the Department of the Treasury all provided emergency assistance, employing their own exceedingly large box of “hardware” to fix the problem.
Relieved investors tried to stay on their feet, encouraged by the lowest stock prices seen in years. The government’s surgery was over. Everything should be fine now, right?
But, as with my wife’s ankle, the U.S. economy won’t be fully healed anytime soon.
This earnings season will likely uncover quite a bit about how extensive the economy’s “tissue” damage really is. It will take months of therapy before we see anything like the pre-pandemic bull market.
And when that truth finally comes to light — likely within the next couple of weeks — investors are in for a rude awakening.
The Good: 5G Can’t Melt Steel Beams
Apple is finally ready to take a bite out of the 5G market.
According to the infamous “people familiar with the matter,” Apple is rolling out redesigned iPhones with 5G capability this year. There’s a total of four new iPhones reportedly in the making: two to replace the flagship iPhone 11 Pro and Pro Max models, as well as two low-end models to replace the iPhone 11 base model.
The new phones will reportedly forgo the 11’s curved screen design in favor of flat stainless steel edges — a more iPad Pro-like design, according to the people who shall not be named.
The leaked info goes on about the iPhone designs more in detail … but, honestly, aside from the 5G functionality, the only real info of note is that there will be a bump in processing speed. Again, not a big shocker. But it does put the iPhone on track for more augmented-reality content and boosts the potential for artificial intelligence implementation in the devices.
I guess we could distill this Apple news down to “5G iPhones Coming! (Allegedly),” because that’s really the only major change in the new iPhones. An expected change … but a welcome one, for sure.
Oh, and no, 5G does not cause COVID-19. Just stop with this nonsense, please.
(Editor’s Note — Not sure where to start with investing in 5G tech? Click here now!)
The Bad: Choppy Waters
Great Stuff reader David R. asked us over the weekend: “What about the class action lawsuit against CCL? What is that going to do to the stock and dividends?”
In case you weren’t aware, a class-action lawsuit was filed recently against Carnival Corp.’s (NYSE: CCL) Costa Cruises subsidiary. The claim alleges that the company failed to warn passengers about potential exposure to COVID-19, and that Carnival failed to take appropriate precautions.
Given that Carnival has faced several of these class actions before — most recently involving robocalls — I don’t think the lawsuit by itself is that much of a concern for investors.
However, the CDC last week extended its “No Sail Order” for all cruise ships for an additional three months. Combined with a recent offering of 71.9 million CCL shares, this No Sail Order could be very problematic for Carnival investors — especially since the company was left out of the U.S. government’s $2 trillion bailout package.
So, I don’t think the class-action suit is a major problem right now. Carnival has much bigger fish to fry — like just trying to stay afloat.
The Ugly: AMC’s Rocky Horror Show
I hope you’re not waiting with antici … pation for movie theater stocks to come back. Nothing short of a time warp will return this industry to normal after the pandemic shutdown.
If you want proof, look no further than industry bigwig AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMC). The company’s silver screens have been dark since mid-March due to travel restrictions and quarantine orders. As a result, AMC reportedly contacted the law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges over the weekend to explore a potential chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.
This morning, analysts at both MKM Partners and Loop Capital downgraded AMC shares, citing a potential bankruptcy. Loop cut AMC to hold, while MKM says to sell the shares.
“Based on our view that theaters will be closed until at least August and our belief that AMC lacks the liquidity to stay afloat until that time, we expect the company will soon be faced with filing for bankruptcy,” MKM said in a note to clients.
If we’re being honest here, the movie theater model was already headed to the graveyard.
The companies make more money off of concessions and add-ons than actual movie tickets. Furthermore, direct-to-streaming releases of blockbuster films is already happening at Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) and Amazon.com Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AMZN) Prime Video.
Now that the major movie studios are getting a taste of that sweet, sweet direct-to-streaming cash without the silver screen distribution costs, the industry may never be the same again.
Today’s Chart of the Week comes courtesy of Earnings Whispers. You can see that there are quite a few major banking names on this week’s list, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC):
But the real story on the U.S. economy will come from names like Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (Nasdaq: BBBY), Fastenal Co. (Nasdaq: FAST) and J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (Nasdaq: JBHT). So, while the mainstream financial media focuses on banking giants, keep your eyes peeled for retail, manufacturing and transport earnings and guidance.
Remember: Great Stuff will be here to help make sure you don’t miss those important reports!
Great Stuff: Sleep on Your Toes
If you’ve followed Great Stuff the past few weeks, you won’t be caught off guard when the dogs of the Dow start howling. And if you’re the bargain hunting type, the time will soon come to start prowling.
When you’re on the Street, you’ve got to be able to pick out the easy meat with your eyes closed.
When volatility hits and stocks trade for pennies on the dollar, that’s your time to strike … when the moment is right without thinking. And you don’t have to keep one eye looking over your shoulder … as long as you hold solid, well-run companies, that is.
That’s why you need a guide … a way to keep from going hog-wild in this pigsty. You need Banyan Hill’s own Charles Mizrahi.
Instead of seeing stocks as just heaps of data or wiggles and jiggles on a chart (as some folks do), you’ll see how to spot bona fide game-changing businesses. In fact, Charles’ approach has given him runs where he picked 36 stocks in a row that went up 50% or more!
Click here to learn about Charles’ approach.
Don’t forget, you can always check Great Stuff out on social media: Facebook and Twitter.
Until next time, be Great!
Regards,
Joseph Hargett
Editor, Great Stuff
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via Today Bharat Despite the coronavirus cases growing daily, India will rise as the fastest growing economy among the G20 contries, says anbsp;reportnbsp;bynbsp;Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), who in the light of coronavirus pandemic slashed India's GDP growth forecast from 6 percent to 2.1 percent. 2.1 percent GDP forecast may be a huge downgrade but given the projected recession in other regions like US, Europe and Latin America, India will be a fastest growing nation and will be only among three countries in G20 along with China and Indonesia. With worst negative growth of 7 percent, Italy will get a huge hit. All the G20 countries will likely go into a recession due to COVID-19 impact, EIU said in a report.nbsp; A EIU report said, due to coronavirus outbreak, growth forecast of all the countries around the world has been revised and the result showsnbsp; a bleak picture. Among G20 nations, all but 3 countries will face a recession this year. The global economy will contract by 2.2 percent. With recessions in almost every developed economy across the world. Thenbsp;global economic picture is looking bleak. There may be a recovery in second half of the year, report said. The EIU has forecast that the US economy will contract by 2.8 percent this year. The administration's initial response to the coronavirus was poor, allowing the illness to spread quickly.
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The Stock Market - Having Mentally Well prepared to Spend
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The Thought
The inventory marketplace has been around for about half a millennium. Very long in the past people had been permitted to get shares off cargo ships before they were sent. In present day planet, it is still the exact same idea even though you will not be acquiring the actual physical goods of a enterprise, in its place you invest in their inventory. By proudly owning inventory it usually means you own a part of that company (Your shares divided by total shares excellent). Considering the fact that the facts age, most persons trade inventory like it can be a video clip activity. All the transactions are digital and the formation of day traders emerged. Day traders are persons who obtain and provide, even the exact inventory, a number of moments throughout the day producing their earnings off of modest surges in rate by purchasing in substantial quantities. Most persons do not even comprehend that when they are buying inventory they are in fact getting a portion of that business. Some shares even appear with voting privileges! That's ideal, by proudly owning the the greater part of shares in a enterprise you can make your mind up it can be foreseeable future! The typical population purchases what is regarded as "widespread inventory", in some cases, coming devoid of voting legal rights or more compact voting rights then "Class A" shares which normally can run 10x or much more high-priced as the "prevalent stock". The idea, of course, is to make wise selections in paying for inventory and owning your dollars perform for you in the varieties of capital gains and dividends...but not everyone can be a winner.
Quarterly Earnings Reports
Quarterly Earnings Studies are a person of the most critical and under-utilized instruments buyers have readily available to them. A corporation will do a finish report on its income, losses, and potential prospects and launch the info to the community in the sort of a Quarterly Earnings Report. You will gain accessibility to all of the companies summarized financial statements for the whole quarter. Most traders will not even know that these exist even nevertheless they are publicly announced way in progress. The numbers on the money statements can inform you where they expended dollars, how substantially income they made, how many assets they have, how considerably income they borrowed, and a lot, much, extra! You can even just take them and look at them to earlier Quarterly Earnings Reviews to see if they are making development. The 4 quarterly earnings reports for every year are compiled into an Annual Summary which you can perspective to look at to past a long time right before you make a selection to devote in a business. The quantities in a money statement are additional than just mere quantities they inform a tale, the story of the firm. Also, who wouldn't want to listen to what the Chief Executive Officers (CEO) of a enterprise has to say about their firm prior to you make investments revenue with them? Data pertaining to knowledge and studying fiscal statements can be found in the summary of this post.
Speculators
The most hazardous sort of people recognized in the video game are referred to as "speculators". These people today sit all around all day striving to forecast what the stock market place will do. Take this into consideration. Just lately AMD produced a warning on their 4Q outlook stating they...may perhaps not meet up with analysts "expectations (speculations)" and mainly because of it a lot of corporations downgraded the inventory which triggered it to eliminate 10 % of its value in a solitary working day. Let's acquire a move back at how nuts and hazardous this would seem. Initially off, the analysts for these firms (who are nothing a lot more than college graduates or persons expert with the stock market place, which we know is extremely unpredictable or everyone would be incredibly abundant by now) are earning a prediction (speculating) on the results of a firms quarterly earnings stories. The firm releasing a warning is speculating that they will not meet up with the speculation of the analysts stories which causes the stock to drop because persons are now speculating primarily based off the firms speculation which was a speculation of an analysts speculation. You see the chain in this article? If you come to be a affected person investor you will find out to ignore analysts for the reason that traditionally talking they have been extra erroneous than proper and in many cases they are the serious cause for the stock price tag dropping.
This is the equal of me telling a relative that I will appear to their funeral in a calendar year. Then I go and notify everybody in the full environment that this relative is going to die in a 12 months. Anyone then purchases plane tickets and prepares for the occasion. Then this relative arrives back again and says the medical professionals think I may well are living longer than a 12 months, which leads to all people to terminate their airplane tickets and unschedule the celebration. Nothing at all of this celebration was ever particular still people today had been reacting to an initial speculation (the analyst)
It's totally ridiculous. If you have accomplished your homework on a organization right before acquiring into it then you will not have to have to be advised what you think by someone else. People have missing the means to believe for themselves and commonly flip their cash more than to money administrators or invest income into items they know practically nothing about producing them doubtful, panicky, and susceptible to nervous feelings about what if this and what if that.
And the crowd goes wild!
So the crowd goes wild, but you should not. When people try to follow a group in the inventory market place they generally conclusion up losing simply because when the group buys, the authentic traders sell and when the group sells, the true traders acquire. By subsequent a group you reduce the capacity to imagine for by yourself and frequently stop up making someone else wealthy. You wholly eliminate perception of the serious function of the inventory sector: Buy Lower and Provide Substantial and as an alternative you Get Significant and Sell Lower. If you are at the arms of an Analyst then you acquire when they say get driving up the stocks rate while the genuine traders are advertising to you, and when the analyst states offer you are offering for quite a few occasions a reduction though the real traders are getting back again their shares. I've noticed it far too several moments, read about it more than at the time, and I'm producing this post in hopes you will put together oneself mentally for the stock industry.
Resource by Thomas Van
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The Biggest Surprise From Apple’s Event Yesterday – Lower Prices
September 11, 2019
Apple Biopharmaceuticals Biotech China Daily Rundown Donald Trump Federal ReserveGaming Tech Stocks Trade War Transportation
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Plus, Trump bashed the Fed on Twitter again, China just exempted some products from tariffs, and shares of GameStop are tanking.
Stocks traded slightly higher to start Wednesday with the Dow adding just 18 points, or 0.1%, on the open. The S&P 500 gained 0.1%, and the Nasdaq traded 0.3% higher.
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Apple shares extended their gains from yesterday when it unveiled a slew of new products, including three new iPhones, a new Apple Watch, and the company’s new streaming service just months ahead of the critical holiday shopping season. But the big surprise from Apple yesterday was the price of these new products. When the iPhone 11 goes on sale for $699, it will be $50 less than the model it is replacing. And the streaming service? It’ll be just $5 per month, far below the price for other big-name streaming services. “Expectations were low into Apple’s Special Event but the announcements were more compelling for three reasons. First, TV+ pricing is lower than expected and the bundling of 12-months free TV+ with a purchase of most devices creates a competitive advantage in an increasingly crowded streaming video market. Second, Apple didn’t raise prices relative to comparable product launches last year after several years of price increases. What’s more, lower starting prices for iPhone 11 and Watch Series 3 are more attractive for first time buyers,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty. “AAPL is a top pick heading into 2020.” Shares are up nearly 2% Wednesday morning after adding around 1% in yesterday’s session.
China’s Ministry of Finance announced exemptions for 16 types of U.S. products from additional tariffs Wednesday, including food for livestock, cancer drugs, and lubricants. The exempted items were separated into two lists, with items on the first list—which includes cancer drugs, fish meal for feed, and shrimp and prawn seedlings—eligible for refunds for tariffs already imposed, and items on the second list ineligible for refunds on previously imposed tariffs. The second list includes items such as whey for feed and lubricating base oil. The exemptions will go into effect beginning on September 17 and will be valid until September 16, 2020. This announcement comes as officials from China and the U.S. prepare for high-level trade negotiations next month.
President Trump continued his assault on the Federal Reserve in a series of tweets Wednesday morning, urging the central bank “Boneheads” to lower interest rates to a level not typically seen outside periods of persistently weak growth and recessions. According to Trump, the Fed should “get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less,” going beyond his prior calls for rates to be reduced by one percentage point. “We should then start to refinance our debt. INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGH WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term,” Trump tweeted. This is the first time the President has suggested the country should refinance its debt, which has grown to $2.6 trillion under his administration. The idea of refinancing federal debt is without any modern precedent. “It’s not viable and could be a significant problem for investors, financial markets and ultimately the economy,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The debt is not prepayable. There’s a contractual relationship the Treasury has with investors. This isn’t a mortgage, this is U.S. Treasury debt. I think it would be incredibly disruptive to financial markets, and interest rates would ultimately rise, not fall.” As far as taking rates to zero, Zandi said “The question you have to ask yourself is, if we go down to zero and we actually experienced a recession, then what?”
Uber, Lyft, and other gig economy companies could be forced to reclassify contractors as employees after lawmakers in California passed a bill that grants labor protections to thousands of workers in the state. According to Barclays and Macquarie, it could cost Uber and Lyft an estimated $2,000 to $3,600 extra per driver per year. Shares of Lyft were up 5.26% at the time of writing while Uber shares were up 1.89% after California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has voiced his support for but not yet signed the bill, told the Wall Street Journal this morning that he is still engaged in talks with the two ride-share companies as well as other gig economy businesses about possible negotiations around the bill. Lyft spokesperson Adrian Durbin said the bill could hurt drivers who prefer a flexible work schedule. “Today, our state’s political leadership missed an opportunity to support the overwhelming majority of rideshare drivers who want a thoughtful solution that balances flexibility with an earnings standard and benefits,” Durbin said in a statement. “…We are fully prepared to take this issue to the voters of California to preserve the freedom and access drivers want and need.”
Shares of GameStop are down nearly -13% this morning after the company reported its net loss widened to $415.3 million, or $4.15 per share, from a loss of $24.9 million in the same period last year. Excluding a $400.9 million impairment charge and other items, GameStop’s adjusted loss from continuing operations was $0.32. GameStop reported comparable-store sales fell nearly -12%, and the company cut its sales forecast for the year. “While we experienced sales declines across a number of our categories during the quarter, these trends are consistent with what we have historically observed towards the end of a hardware cycle,” said CEO Jim Bell in a statement. “We will continue to manage the underlying businesses to produce meaningful cash returns, while maintaining a strong balance sheet and investing responsibly in our strategic initiatives.” Shares of Dave & Busters Entertainment were down more than -6% this morning after it cut its guidance and reported a decline in same-store sales of -1.8% for the second quarter. Raymond James downgraded Dave & Busters saying, “We are downgrading shares of PLAY to Market Perform from Outperform as a recent further deterioration in comps offsets the stock’s low valuation and potential activists, in our view. … Amusement comps (high margin) have turned incrementally negative on difficult VR/Halo comparisons while recent F&B value initiatives have failed to gain traction.”
Stocks We’re Watching
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AUPH): Shares of this clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company were up as much as 12% yesterday after Oppenheimer analyst Justin Kim initiated coverage of the stock giving it an Outperform rating and a price target of $14 – 119% higher than current prices. Aurinia’s phase 3 AURORA trial to test the company’s lead product, voclosporin, as a possible treatment for lupus nephritis is fully enrolled and management anticipates being able to share data from the trial in late 2019. The company is also studying voclosporin in two phase 2 trails for treating focal segmental glomerulosclerosis and dry eye syndromes. Success in treating any of these indications could turn the drug candidate into a potential blockbuster drug and would push Aurinia’s stock far higher.
Mesoblast Limited (NASDAQ: MESO): Shares of this biotech have rocketed nearly 32% higher since Monday after Mesoblast announced that it had entered into a strategic partnership with global pain management leader Grünenthal to develop and commercialize its MPC-06-ID candidate. Allogeneic cell therapy candidate MPC-06-ID is currently in a Phase III trial for the treatment of chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease in patients that have exhausted conservative treatment options. Under the new partnership, Grünenthal will have exclusive commercialization rights to MPC-06-ID for Europe and Latin America, and Mesoblast will receive up to $150 million in upfront and milestone payments prior to the launch of the new drug as well as further commercialization milestone payments. The cumulative milestone payments could exceed $1 billion depending on the final outcome of the Phase III trial and patient adoption.
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Every day Bulletin: India, Pakistan to face off in World Cup; protesting medical doctors in Bengal agree for talks; day's prime tales
http://tinyurl.com/y3qj88lk Junior medical doctors on strike in West Bengal agree to satisfy Mamata Banerjee for talks The deadlock in West Bengal confirmed indicators of easing as agitating medical doctors mentioned Saturday night time they had been open for talks with West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee to finish their stir, however they might determine on the venue of the assembly later. Earlier on Saturday night, the protesting medical doctors had turned down Mamata’s invite for a closed-door assembly on the Secretariat and had as a substitute requested her to go to NRS Medical School and Hospital for an open dialogue to resolve the dispute. File picture of West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee. PTI Late on Saturday night time, the joint discussion board of junior medical doctors held a press convention. “We’re open for dialogue at all times. If the chief minister extends one hand, we’ll lengthen 10 of ours… We’re eagerly ready to interrupt the impasse,” the spokesperson mentioned. The agitating medical doctors had additionally turned down Mamata’s request saying there was no sincere effort on her half to interrupt the impasse. “We’re eagerly ready to begin our responsibility, however from the chief minister’s facet, there isn’t a such sincere initiative to discover a resolution,” he had mentioned earlier within the night time. The junior medical doctors on strike additionally rubbished her claims that a couple of of their colleagues had visited her on the Secretariat. Mamata, at a press convention, had urged the agitators to renew work and mentioned her authorities has accepted all their demands. The Ministry of House Affairs issued an advisory seeking a report on the stir. However Mamata reacted sharply to it and mentioned such advisory ought to be “despatched to states like Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat the place a number of murders are reported for the reason that final couple of years”. Governor KN Tripathi wrote to Mamata, advising her to take instant steps to supply safety to the medicos and discover a resolution to the deadlock. The West Bengal chief minister later mentioned she has spoken to the governor and apprised him concerning the steps taken by the state authorities to resolve the deadlock. India and Pakistan to conflict in Cricket World Cup as we speak Virat Kohli’s males will look to proceed their good run in 50-over World Cup historical past towards neighbours Pakistan when the 2 sides tackle one another in a blockbuster contest on Sunday to be performed at Outdated Trafford in Manchester. For the reason that 1992 version, each nations have clashed six occasions and each time, India ended up on the successful facet, giving the lads in blue a good-looking 6-Zero lead over Pakistan. So far as staff information is anxious, Shikhar Dhawan will proceed to relaxation as there was no additional replace on his thumb harm from staff administration. Pakistan could deliver again their star spinner Shadab Khan after he was dropped to accommodate an additional pacer towards Australia. To not neglect, there are darkish clouds hovering over the match and fairly actually in order a few showers are anticipated to play spoilsport in the course of the course of the match in Manchester. The match will start at three pm IST. Centre requires all-party assembly forward of Parliament session The federal government has convened an all-party assembly at 11 am on Sunday, a day earlier than the primary session of the newly elected Lok Sabha is scheduled to start. The Centre will search the Opposition’s assist in passing essential payments, reminiscent of one on triple talaq. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pralhad Joshi and several other others have met Opposition leaders, together with Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and Ghulam Nabi Azad, to hunt their assist for the graceful functioning of Parliament. The BJP-led Nationwide Democratic Alliance has a whopping 353 members within the 545-seat Lok Sabha, nevertheless it has solely 102 members within the 245-seat Rajya Sabha. The newly constituted BJP Parliamentary Occasion Govt Committee will even meet on Sunday. On the assembly, to be chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the celebration will chalk out its technique for the session, which is able to conclude on 26 July. Moreover, as suspense continues over the standing of Congress president Rahul Gandhi, the grand previous celebration has but to determine its chief within the Lok Sabha. Congress chief and Rajya Sabha MP PL Punia advised India Today: “There’s nonetheless time to determine the chief of the Home. It will likely be carried out by Sonia Gandhi quickly.” PL Punia mentioned that leaders of the Opposition events could meet after oath is run to newly elected Lok Sabha MPs. Making India $5 trillion financial system difficult however certainly achievable, says Modi at NITI Aayog meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday mentioned the aim of constructing India a $5 trillion financial system by 2024 is difficult however certainly achievable, as he requested states to give attention to their core competencies and work in direction of elevating the GDP proper from the district degree. The dimensions of India’s financial system was estimated at $2.75 trillion at March finish. Modi made the assertion on the fifth assembly of the Governing Council of NITI Aayog. The assembly, which held in a “very constructive ambiance”, was attended by senior union ministers and nearly all of the chief ministers, apart from Mamata Banerjee (West Bengal) and Okay Chandrashekhar Rao (Telangana). In his inaugural handle, the prime minister additionally underlined the necessity to take efficient steps to deal with drought in numerous components of the nation. Modi additionally spoke of a collective combat towards poverty, unemployment, drought, flood, air pollution, corruption and violence and mentioned that everybody has a typical aim of attaining a New India by 2022. He described Swachh Bharat Abhiyan and the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana as illustrations of what the Centre and the states can accomplish collectively. Tsunami alert lifted for New Zealand after 7.Four magnitude earthquake struck Kermadec Islands A strong 7.2-magnitude earthquake caught close to the distant Kermadec Islands northeast of New Zealand Sunday, briefly prompting a tsunami warning. After initially forecasting “a menace to seashore, harbour, estuary and small boat actions”, New Zealand’s civil defence organisation gave the all-clear eight minutes later. The earthquake was given a preliminary magnitude of seven.4, however later downgraded to 7.2 by the US Geological Survey. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Middle additionally lifted its tsunami warning for components of the South Pacific however mentioned “minor sea degree fluctuations could happen in some coastal areas close to the earthquake”. The earthquake struck at 10.55 am at a depth of 10 kilometres some 928 kilometres north-northeast of the New Zealand metropolis of Tauranga within the North Island. Amazon’s Instagram rival Spark shutdown after two years Amazon had launched Spark in 2017 with a feed of tales and pictures aimed toward Prime members. It was set to compete with Instagram, nevertheless it by no means actually took off the best way the corporate had anticipated. In any case, the information procured from the Spark app and Amazon’s discovery instrument will be present in a brand new socially-inspired product which Amazon calls #FoundItOnAmazon. Your information to the most recent cricket World Cup tales, evaluation, studies, opinions, stay updates and scores on https://www.firstpost.com/firstcricket/series/icc-cricket-world-cup-2019.html. Observe us on Twitter and Instagram or like our Facebook web page for updates all through the continued occasion in England and Wales. !function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s) {if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function() {n.callMethod? n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)} ; if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0'; n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0; t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window,document,'script', 'https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js'); fbq('init', '259288058299626'); fbq('track', 'PageView'); (function(d, s, id) { var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "http://connect.facebook.net/en_GB/all.js#xfbml=1&version=v2.9&appId=1117108234997285"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk')); window.fbAsyncInit = function () { FB.init({appId: '1117108234997285', version: 2.4, xfbml: true}); // *** here is my code *** if (typeof facebookInit == 'function') { facebookInit(); } }; (function () { var e = document.createElement('script'); e.src = document.location.protocol + '//connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js'; e.async = true; document.getElementById('fb-root').appendChild(e); }()); function facebookInit() { console.log('Found FB: Loading comments.'); FB.XFBML.parse(); } Source link
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Markets Live: Session ends flat
That is all for today, thank you for your time and your comments. We will be back tomorrow. The S&P/ASX 200 index has closed 0.9 points lower, a decline of 0.02 per cent, as energy stocks tried to counteract the down pull from the financial index. The Hang Seng index is down 1.6 per cent and the Shanghai composite is down 1.06 per cent. Among the top 200 companies in Australia energy stocks today out-performed the market with a rise of 2 per cent today, followed by a 0.5 per cent rise in the materials index. Beach Energy was up the most, nearly 6 per cent, while Brickworks gained 4.4 per cent. Bellamy's was also up 4 per cent and BlueScope Steel gained 3 per cent. In the laggers, all four banks closed in red: Commonwealth Bank is down 1 per cent to $70.80, Westpac is down 1.1 per cent to $27.88, ANZ is down 1.2 per cent to $28.22 and NAB is down 0.43 per cent to $27.60. The banking royal commission's report is due this Friday and is a millstone around their necks. ASIC also released a report today criticising "unacceptable" delays in reporting and correcting breaches. The biggest declines in the ASX200 were with Webjet, down 6 per cent, Pilbara Minerals, down 5.4 per cent and St Barbara, down 5 per cent. Lynas Corp continues to fall, losing a further 5 per cent and a fresh one-year low of $1.63. We are still getting complaints from ANZ Share Trading customers. This one stands out from Chris Petrakis, who has been trying to long on for two days. "I am a CTO with over 25 years experience in the software engineering industry and I can guarantee you it is not something I am doing wrong. I have sent emails to the ANZ Share Investing Support team that have come back with nonsensical replies and all calls have gone unanswered. The longest I was on hold for was 52 minutes. The 1300 numbers they have available seem to go in a loop which then informs you to call a different 1300 number for help then hangs up on you. I even called the ANZ general enquiries who, although not able to help me directly with this request, put in an "urgent" request for the Share Investing team to call me to sort out my issue. I am gobsmacked that such a high profile roll out can go so terribly wrong. I am also bewildered at the poor effort to support the roll out." We asked ANZ and CMC for explanations this morning and still haven't heard back from them. Japara Health Care is trading at $1.35 today, down from $1.80 before the government announced a royal commission into the sector. However, Patersons analyst Martyn Jacobs believes this is a buying opportunity and has rated the stock a "buy" with a target price of $1.79. He writes: "The announcement of the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety comes just as the sector is working through the tail end of the c.$1.2bn in Federal Government funding cuts. In some respects it could not come at a worse time as it again highlights the ongoing regulatory risks for investors In the sector. However, not all Royal Commissions are alike. We think the potential outcomes are more likely to be positive for the large operators in an otherwise fragmented industry. This compares with the banking sector for example, where the outcomes are patently negative for the oligopolistic structure of that sector. We do believe that the pending Royal Commission highlights that it may not be optimal for sensitive assets like aged care operations to be listed. Subsequently, we think that the short-term sentiment risk created by the announcement and the follow on events that will occur may create an opportunity for private owners to privatize one or more of the current listed peer group. For this reason, we are changing our recommendation on JHC to BUY." 4WD parts company and distributor ARB has just told the market managing director Andrew Brown was injured in an off-road race in Millicent, South Australia, on Sunday. "He is presently receiving medical treatment and is expected to make a full recovery. He will be absent from work during the initial recovery period". ARB shares are down 22 cents at $19.46. ANZ has posted a suggestion on its Facebook page for traders who are still unable to log into their account. "UPDATE: If you are continuing to have issues logging on to ANZ Share Investing we suggest resetting your password via ANZshareinvesting.com. Click the 'Forgot your password' link and once you enter your details a text message will then be sent to your registered mobile number containing a security code". Users are still furious and the comments on ANZ's Facebook page are not friendly. Webjet shares have been dropping all day and are now down 6.2 per cent to $15.62, the lowest price since late August. UK-listed travel company Thomas Cook slashed its profit expectations last night. Summer was so warm this year that many northern European residents did not bother travelling to warmer countries. Webjet's price fall appears to be contagion. Bloomberg reports: Thomas Cook Group Plc replaced its chief financial officer after a botched travel forecast for an extraordinarily hot European summer forced the tour operator to slash its expectations twice in two months. The shares fell the most in two years after the London-based company said underlying profit for the year ending Sept. 30 will be 13 percent lower than the bottom end of a July 31 forecast that already represented a downgrade. Finance chief Bill Scott will step down after less than nine months on the job as the company brings in Sten Daugaard, a former Lego executive, on an interim basis. The hot weather this summer served as a disincentive to Europeans in usually sun-deprived England, Germany and Scandinavia to take trips to warmer climates. "Many customers spent June and July enjoying the sunshine at home and put off booking their holidays abroad," Chief Executive Officer Peter Fankhauser said on a conference call. "Our recent trading performance is clearly disappointing." Thomas Cook said Monday it offered discounts larger than usual to entice travelers to still go to its hotels across the Mediterranean. Increased bookings came at the cost of profitability. Further, as many potential travelers burned vacation days enjoying the local weather, there will be a spillover weighing on the winter season as well, the company said. The company said it has cut capacity offered in its Nordic markets by 5 percent. The shares dropped as much as 26 percent in London, the most since the day after the U.K.'s vote to leave the European Union. Thomas Cook was down 15 percent to 62.35 pence at 12:05 p.m. Underlying operating profit will amount to about 280 million pounds ($366 million) in the year ended Sept. 30, the company said in a statement. Eight weeks ago, the company forecast it would come in at the lower end of a range of 323 million pounds to 355 million pounds estimated by analysts. With a couple of hours to go in trading (except for those ANZ Share Trading customers who cannot log in) the ASX 200 has risen higher, pulled up by the energy index which is up nearly 2 per cent for the day. Beach Energy is up 4.4 per cent, Woodside Petroleum 2.5 per cent and Santos 2.8 per cent. Mining stocks Bluescope Steel is up 3.6 per cent and Fortescue Metals is up 3.4 per cent. Meanwhile the banks are being left behind with the finance index down 0.6 per cent for the day. Within that index the big four banks are down, but other large institutions like AMP and Macquarie Bank are flat.
Things are still not going well for ANZ Share Trading customers. About an hour ago the bank finally posted an apology on Facebook. "Hi everyone, we understand some customers are experiencing issues accessing ANZ Share Investing. We are looking into these log on issues as a matter of urgency and will provide an update shortly." We haven't had any response from ANZ or CMC markets today, but have had lots of emails from angry traders. One pointed out the difficulties ANZ's customers might have getting all their information ready for tax time because they cannot easily access their share trading history. The reviews are not good. Indoor Skydive Australia informs the market this afternoon it has resolved disputes with SkyVenture International. The announcement tells quite a story. As part of the resolution SkyVenture will fund a $3.8 million loan to Indoor Skydive, which will be paid back to SkyVenture. Indoor Skydive will also confirm that SkyVenture's intellectual property and know-how remains SkyVenture's exclusive property. Indoor Skydive will stop using AirRider equipment and brandand stop acting as a franchisor or licensor of wind tunnel technology. It also notes that SkyVenture has the largest range of vertical wind tunnel equipment in the world. Results released today show Indoor Skydive had revenue of $13.8 million for the last financial year, up 13 per cent, leading to earnings of $2.3 million. However, the dispute with SkyVenture has been costly and distracting and the company recorded a $10 million loss for the years. Shares are trading at 11 cents today. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/markets/markets-live-asx-looking-at-soft-open-20180925-h15tht.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed
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Interserve plc isn’t the only stock I’d sell today
The Interserve (LSE: IRV) share price has collapsed to a level not seen since the 1990s. A recent mini recovery from 55p to 85p might suggest the tide has finally turned for this support services and construction company, but there’s one overriding factor that leads me to rate the stock a ‘sell’.
Finsbury Food (LSE: FIF), which released its latest half-year results today, is another stock I have tagged as a ‘sell’. This speciality baker has been a considerably more solid performer than Interserve and there’s a different reason for my negative view on its buoyant shares.
One big problem
After a string of operational problems, poor trading and boardroom changes during 2017, Interserve issued better news in January. It said it expected operating profit in 2018 to be “ahead of current market expectations,” with new management confident it has identified initiatives that will “contribute at least £40m-£50m to group operating profit by 2020.”
For 2018, City analysts are forecasting a bottom-line profit of £48m, so with a market cap of £124m at the current share price, Interserve’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is an incredibly low 2.6. However, I don’t believe this is the bargain it appears, due to the company’s massive net debt of over £500m.
I’m not quite as pessimistic as my Foolish friend Alan Oscroft, who has argued Interserve could go the way of Carillion, leaving shareholders with nothing, but I do think the shares could fall considerably lower than their current level. The Telegraph reported earlier this month that since the start of the year, private equity outfit Emerald Investment Partners has been quietly buying up Interserve’s debt from the likes of Lloyds and Barclays “for as little as 50p in the pound” and “may now own as much as a third of [the] loans.”
When debt is changing hands at such a discount, it’s generally bad news for existing equity. Emerald clearly sees a viable business but I believe a refinancing of Interserve, including a debt-for-equity swap, would likely come at a heavy cost to current shareholders.
Multiple headwinds
Finsbury Food has no such problems with debt. At a share price of 116p (unchanged on the day), its market cap is £151m, while net debt stands at just £16.6m. In addition to its strong balance sheet, the company is trading pretty well, with today’s results showing low single-digit top-line growth and mid single-digit bottom-line growth.
For Finsbury’s full financial year to 30 June, City analysts are forecasting a net profit in the £30m region, giving a P/E of 11.6. And there’s a dividend yield of 2.8% on a forecast payout of £4.3m.
The company acknowledges it faces Brexit uncertainties and a number of continuing challenges, including increased commodity prices and the annual above-inflation increase in the National Living wage. While management is working hard to “mitigate” the headwinds and believes it has a “resilient” business, I don’t see a P/E of 11.6 and dividend yield of 2.8% as sufficient reward for mitigation and resilience.
Finsbury is a decent, well-managed company but one which will have to run just to stand still in the prevailing challenging environment. In these circumstances, I believe the risk of earnings downgrades is significantly higher than the potential for upgrades and I see more appealing investment propositions elsewhere in the market.
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US shares claw back ground and finish up on day
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Media captionWhy are share prices falling?
US stock markets have ended a day of massive fluctuations on a high note, rebounding after recent steep losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 2.3%, while the Nasdaq hit 2.1% and the S&P 500 rose 1.7%.
Stocks shuttled between positive and negative territory throughout the day, their activity spanning more than 1,000 points.
On Monday, the Dow had plunged by nearly 1,200 points or 4.6%, triggering losses in Asia and Europe.
“I think what you’re seeing today is, ‘Hold on. This got overdone’. The fundamentals of the companies haven’t changed since Friday,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at online brokerage TD Ameritrade.
Analysts have said for months that the financial markets were due a correction after a long period of rising prices.
Investors are also fretting over the prospect of rising interest rates, which push up borrowing costs for companies and consumers.
The steep sell-off began last week after data in the US showed stronger than expected wage growth.
The report came amid other shifts, including new tax cuts, trade tensions, and a sinking dollar, that analysts say could lead inflation to rise faster than expected.
The conditions pose a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which will need to raise interest rates to counter inflation, without moving so aggressively that it severely curbs economic activity.
It is not clear how the changing economic currents, including tax cuts, will affect company financials ultimately, said Michael Bapis, managing director of The Bapis Group at Hightower, a wealth management firm in New York.
“You’re seeing that volatility now because there’s uncertainty,” he said.
Earlier on Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 4.7%.
Markets in London, Frankfurt and Paris had initial losses of up to 3%, before recovering some ground.
London’s FTSE 100 closed down almost 200 points or 2.6% at 7141. Frankfurt’s Dax and Paris’s CAC were down 2.3% and 2.4% respectively.
On Monday the FTSE 100 closed at its lowest level since April of last year.
The falls follow some good years for investors.
In 2017 the Dow in the US was up 25% and London’s FTSE 100 rose 7.6%.
Will falls turn into rout? Analysis, Kamal Ahmed, economics editor
The softness of markets over the last few days is down to one thing.
As monetary policy begins its long journey away from the trillions of pounds of stimulus pumped into the system to keep the economic ship from the rocks, shareholders are beginning to wonder how much of their investments are in companies with strong fundamentals.
And how much is simply holding up an asset bubble – frothy prices led ever higher in an era of ultra low interest rates and cheap money.
Fingers are hovering over the “sell” button.
And once investors start looking at their portfolio and selling out of the froth, automatic algorithmic trading tends to “chase the dip”.
Read more from Kamal here
What happened in Asian markets?
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed 5% lower and South Korea’s Kospi index gave up 2.6%. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 lost 3.2%.
Japan’s share index saw steeper falls overnight, with a loss of some 7% at one point.
Unlike elsewhere in the world, where interest rates are beginning to or are expected to start rising, Japan’s immediate economic outlook remains stagnant. The authorities there said there was little chance of interest rates being increased.
What happened in the US?
Monday’s decline was the largest in percentage terms for the Dow since August 2011, when markets dropped in the aftermath of “Black Monday” – the day Standard & Poor’s downgraded its credit rating of the US.
US markets opened sharply lower again on Tuesday, but quickly rebounded amid frantic trade that continued throughout the day.
Analysts have said the swings in the US markets in part reflect big investors moving to sell stocks and put money in other assets, such as bonds, which benefit from higher interest rates.
Other companies that had strategies betting on calm markets also had to adjust.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he did not think the declines were a sign of broader problems.
“There are no systemic issues,” he told a congressional panel on Tuesday. “I don’t think these types of moves, given how much the market has rallied, have financial stability concerns.”
How does it affect me?
Even if you don’t own shares directly, the chances are that you will be paying into a pension which is invested in shares and bonds.
More than nine million people in the UK have auto enrolment pensions, and 12 million are active members of defined contribution schemes.
That means the value of the pension is dependent on the value of the investments in it.
Similarly, anyone who owns shares or funds in an ISA or a SIPP will have seen the value of their savings fall.
But experts point out that investments rise and fall over time, and over the longer term, it should make little difference.
“It is effectively no change for normal investors, in that you have ridden a wave on the way up, so now is not the time to cash in,” said Rebecca O’Keefe, head of investment at Interactive Investor.
“This is unwelcome news, but it is fundamentally a not unexpected reaction to the euphoria that saw markets rise so fast.”
How badly will my pension be affected?
If you are planning on retiring in the next couple of months, you will have a slightly smaller pension pot than you did at the start of the year.
But coincidentally the FTSE 100 is at almost exactly the same place it was a year ago, so you won’t have lost anything over that longer term.
Furthermore if you have a while to go before you retire, the shares in your pension fund have just become cheaper to buy – so there is a greater chance of them increasing in value.
But, as ever, future market trends are difficult to determine.
“Markets are capricious beasts in the short term, and, looking forward, stock prices could move in either direction without defying the laws of statistics,” said Laith Khalaf, a senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
“However, in the long term, markets are more reliable in generating growth, and so anyone saving for retirement should still consider the stock market as a friend, not a foe.”
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Will this have a long-term effect?
Analysts say that in the short term, investors should be prepared for choppier stock markets, but doubt whether there will be a prolonged period of selling.
Jane Sydenham, investment director at the stockbrokers Rathbones, said the recent moves were a “correction” rather than a crash.
“What we have to remember is stock markets have had a very smooth ride upwards and we’ve not had a fall of more than 3% for 15 months. There’s been a real lack of volatility, which is very unusual.”
She added that bear markets – when shares go into a long period of decline – tend to happen ahead of a recession and at the moment growth forecasts were being upgraded.
And analyst Laith Khalaf, of Hargreaves Lansdown, pointed out that, despite the heavy falls on Wall Street, the benchmark Dow Jones share index is still 20% up on where it stood this time last year.
The post US shares claw back ground and finish up on day appeared first on dailygate.
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New York Mortgage Trust Inc. (NASDAQ:NYMTP) Sees Significantly Lower Trading Volume
Abbott Laboratories will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.265 on 11/15/17, Becton, Dickinson & Co will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.7656 on 11/1/17, and Pennymac Mortgage Investment Trust will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.47 on 10/30/17. Compass Point upgraded the stock to “Buy” rating in Monday, July 27 report. As per Monday, June 13, the company rating was maintained by Wood.
Taking a deeper look into the technical levels of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust Plc (SMT.L), we can see that the Williams Percent Range or 14 day Williams %R now sits at -5.08. Two investment analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and two have given a strong buy rating to the company. The firm has “Equal-Weight” rating given on Friday, February 5 by Barclays Capital. The return on equity ratio or ROE stands at 13.2 percent while most common profitability ratio return on investment (ROI) was 13.9 percent. Commonwealth Equity Svcs holds 51,575 shares. The stock decreased 1.36% or $0.24 during the last trading session, reaching $17.36. The firm has “Neutral” rating by Compass Point given on Monday, February 6. Stifel Fincl owns 105,469 shares. Credit Suisse Group reiterated a “hold” rating and set a $18.00 price target on shares of AG Mortgage Investment Trust in a research note on Thursday, August 10th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.10 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.14 by ($0.04). The correct version of this article can be viewed at https://weekherald.com/2017/10/10/pennymac-mortgage-investment-trust-pmt-downgraded-to-market-perform-at-keefe-bruyette-woods.html. The mortgage portfolio is comprised largely of prime adjustable-rate and hybrid mortgage loans and securities, much of which, over time will be originated by NYMT’s wholly owned mortgage origination business, The New York Mortgage Company, a taxable real estate investment trust subsidiary. Driggs Dustin sold 1,250 shares worth $27,863. Over the last twelve months, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE:PMT)’s stock has been 17.21%. The rating was downgraded by Citigroup on Friday, August 7 to “Neutral”. It has outperformed by 1.52% the S&P500. The Company conducts all of its operations, and makes all of its investments, through PennyMac Operating Partnership, L.P. The LSE listed company saw a recent bid of 841.00 on 12429 volume.
Since May 15, 2017, it had 0 buys, and 1 insider sale for $266,475 activity. The stock of Barracuda Networks Inc (NYSE:CUDA) has “Buy” rating given on Thursday, August 31 by KeyBanc Capital Markets. Currently, the stock is -2.95% from its 50-Day High and 2.46% from the 50-day low. The shares were sold at an average price of $17.61, for a total value of $330,187.50. Raymond James initiated the shares of AERI in report on Wednesday, September 14 with “Strong Buy” rating. Piper Jaffray maintained it with “Buy” rating and $43.0 target in Monday, September 11 report. The stock of Barracuda Networks Inc (NYSE:CUDA) earned “Buy” rating by Needham on Tuesday, September 12. The rating was maintained by RBC Capital Markets on Thursday, September 15 with “Outperform”. On Wednesday, March 9 the stock rating was maintained by JMP Securities with “Market Outperform”. They expect this year’s earnings to fall -73.33% year-over-year to -$0.04, followed by -150% decline in the next year to $0.02.
Analysts await Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:AERI) to report earnings on November, 1. After $-0.82 actual EPS reported by Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc for the previous quarter, Wall Street now forecasts -3.66% EPS growth. Parametric Portfolio Ltd Liability Company has 26,213 shares. Senzar Asset Management Llc owns 391,400 shares or 5.06% of their U.S. portfolio. The Colorado-based Advisors Asset Management Inc. has invested 0.34% in the stock. Kazazian Asset Ltd Llc reported 42,045 shares. QS Investors LLC now owns 30,424 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $189,000 after acquiring an additional 10,999 shares during the last quarter.
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New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. – (NASDAQ:NYMTP) Sees Significantly Lower Trading Volume
Abbott Laboratories will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.265 on 11/15/17, Becton, Dickinson & Co will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.7656 on 11/1/17, and Pennymac Mortgage Investment Trust will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.47 on 10/30/17. Compass Point upgraded the stock to “Buy” rating in Monday, July 27 report. As per Monday, June 13, the company rating was maintained by Wood.
Taking a deeper look into the technical levels of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust Plc (SMT.L), we can see that the Williams Percent Range or 14 day Williams %R now sits at -5.08. Two investment analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and two have given a strong buy rating to the company. The firm has “Equal-Weight” rating given on Friday, February 5 by Barclays Capital. The return on equity ratio or ROE stands at 13.2 percent while most common profitability ratio return on investment (ROI) was 13.9 percent. Commonwealth Equity Svcs holds 51,575 shares. The stock decreased 1.36% or $0.24 during the last trading session, reaching $17.36. The firm has “Neutral” rating by Compass Point given on Monday, February 6. Stifel Fincl owns 105,469 shares. Credit Suisse Group reiterated a “hold” rating and set a $18.00 price target on shares of AG Mortgage Investment Trust in a research note on Thursday, August 10th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.10 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.14 by ($0.04). The correct version of this article can be viewed at https://weekherald.com/2017/10/10/pennymac-mortgage-investment-trust-pmt-downgraded-to-market-perform-at-keefe-bruyette-woods.html. The mortgage portfolio is comprised largely of prime adjustable-rate and hybrid mortgage loans and securities, much of which, over time will be originated by NYMT’s wholly owned mortgage origination business, The New York Mortgage Company, a taxable real estate investment trust subsidiary. Driggs Dustin sold 1,250 shares worth $27,863. Over the last twelve months, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE:PMT)’s stock has been 17.21%. The rating was downgraded by Citigroup on Friday, August 7 to “Neutral”. It has outperformed by 1.52% the S&P500. The Company conducts all of its operations, and makes all of its investments, through PennyMac Operating Partnership, L.P. The LSE listed company saw a recent bid of 841.00 on 12429 volume.
Since May 15, 2017, it had 0 buys, and 1 insider sale for $266,475 activity. The stock of Barracuda Networks Inc (NYSE:CUDA) has “Buy” rating given on Thursday, August 31 by KeyBanc Capital Markets. Currently, the stock is -2.95% from its 50-Day High and 2.46% from the 50-day low. The shares were sold at an average price of $17.61, for a total value of $330,187.50. Raymond James initiated the shares of AERI in report on Wednesday, September 14 with “Strong Buy” rating. Piper Jaffray maintained it with “Buy” rating and $43.0 target in Monday, September 11 report. The stock of Barracuda Networks Inc (NYSE:CUDA) earned “Buy” rating by Needham on Tuesday, September 12. The rating was maintained by RBC Capital Markets on Thursday, September 15 with “Outperform”. On Wednesday, March 9 the stock rating was maintained by JMP Securities with “Market Outperform”. They expect this year’s earnings to fall -73.33% year-over-year to -$0.04, followed by -150% decline in the next year to $0.02.
Analysts await Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:AERI) to report earnings on November, 1. After $-0.82 actual EPS reported by Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc for the previous quarter, Wall Street now forecasts -3.66% EPS growth. Parametric Portfolio Ltd Liability Company has 26,213 shares. Senzar Asset Management Llc owns 391,400 shares or 5.06% of their U.S. portfolio. The Colorado-based Advisors Asset Management Inc. has invested 0.34% in the stock. Kazazian Asset Ltd Llc reported 42,045 shares. QS Investors LLC now owns 30,424 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $189,000 after acquiring an additional 10,999 shares during the last quarter.
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USD: Trading The FOMC - Views From 15 Major Banks
The following are brief expectations for today's FOMC September policy statement as compiled from the related research reports of 15 major banks.
Overall, the consensus expects the FOMC to maintain the Fed funds target range unchanged, and to formally announce the start of the balance sheet reduction in October.
On the USD front, the focus seems to be on the FOMC's new median inflation forecasts and its dot-plot projections.
Credit Agricole Research: We expect the FOMC to announce the start of balance sheet tapering in October, in line with the parameters already released and that should come as of little surprise to market participants. Chair Yellen is likely to emphasize that that the fed funds rate is the main policy tool while balance sheet normalization should run quietly in the background over several years. We suspect there are risks to this benign view but they are not likely to become relevant until the balance sheet reduction process is in motion. Thus, the main market-moving elements of the announcement are likely to be the statement, press-conference and dot-plot projections.
ING Research: This week's FOMC meeting may not be the non-event that many in the market are seemingly viewing it. "While the long-awaited announcement of the Fed's balance sheet unwind will be the main event, there will be keen interest in the new official forecasts. These may be used to reinforce the message that, while there is little need for aggressive interest rate hikes, the market remains too complacent on the prospect of higher interest rates. We therefore suspect the Fed will keep its positive, longer-term forecasts unchanged and we currently look for a December rate rise followed by two more 25bp hikes next year.
BofAML Research: We expect the FOMC September statement to imply that the Fed is a bit more upbeat about the risks to inflation and growth, however, we do not expect the dots to move, maintaining the expectation of three hikes this year (December hike). Market participants are expecting the September FOMC meeting to be a non-event. Even if the dots fail to shift lower - which could be interpreted as a hawkish signal - the market may discount this guidance beyond year-end given the significant re-shaping of Fed leadership expected in coming months. We see balanced risks for the USD from this FOMC meeting, but we would buy the dip if we get one.
BTMU Research: After the recent inflation pick-up, the FOMC is likely to maintain its view of a rate hike in December, although that decision is finely balanced. If confirmed on Wednesday it will clearly help support the dollar over the short-term...The updated guidance over the outlook for the Fed funds rate should have more impact on the US dollar’s performance in the near-term than the well telegraphed announcement from the Fed today that it is likely to begin shrinking their balance sheet in Q4. The Fed has already clearly signalled that they will only very gradually shrink their balance sheet to begin with in an attempt to dampen any potential financial market disruption. The main upside risk for the US dollar would be if the Fed left their plans for the Fed funds rate relatively unchanged.
Barclays Research: We expect no change in interest rates and the announcement of the start of balance sheet normalization, following the blueprint revealed in the June meeting. Although the expected announcement of balance sheet reduction (BSR) at this week’s Fed meeting is unlikely to be a material mover for markets, we think the Fed will keep the option of a December rate hike alive amid subdued market pricing. Indeed, after last week’s upside surprise in US CPI, we have retained our call for a 25bp December rate hike and our rates strategists remain positioned in 2s10s Treasury flatteners, an environment that is usually accompanied by significant USD appreciation. In that respect, a move in front-end rate differentials should lead the EURUSD to weaken this week.
TD Research: For the Fed, it appears there is not a rate move in the cards today and the announcement of balance sheet reduction has been well-telegraphed over the past few months. We suspect this leaves the FX markets to trade on the details of the dots and forecasts, which are more likely to hurt than benefit the $. Indeed, our base case sees a downward lurch in the dots but not enough of a shift to move the medians. Forecasts will also get close attention, with the balances of risks favoring downside in the DXY and retest of the recent lows.
NAB Research: The Fed looms large this week. While an announcement of the imminent commencement of Fed balance sheet reduction should be discounted, there’s a chance that the new median dot forecast for the Fed is lowered to imply no further move this year and/or less next year. We think not, but were it to occur the dollar would be set back, notwithstanding how far market pricing sits beneath the June dot plot.
SEB Research: Although we do not expect the Fed to make a move on the policy rate, we do expect a formal decision to start the reduction of the balance sheet in October. The plan to normalise the balance sheet has been communicated well in advance and since initial caps reducing reinvestments in principal will be small, the launch is unlikely to cause volatility in financial markets. We expect the Fed to hike in December but this is conditional on inflation moving closer to target.
Danske Research: No hike but Fed will announce it will begin shrinking its balance sheet in October. This is widely expected and should not have a major impact on Treasury yields. We expect the median ‘dots’ to still signal one more hike this year and three hikes next year. The longer-run median ‘dot’ may be revised down from 3% currently. We do not expect major changes to the statement, as it already says the Fed monitors inflation ‘closely’. We are looking forward to hearing Janet Yellen’s view on the dilemma with low inflation and unemployment at the same time. Any dips in EUR/USD will be shallow and short-lived but we emphasise that the speed with which EUR/ISD is set to move higher will be reduced going forward.
Morgan Stanley Research: We think the markets are largely pricing in the Fed starting to reduce their balance sheet so the impact on long term rates and the USD should be limited. Instead the focus will be on 2018 median dot. We don't expect the median dots to change, but the mass of dots may move lower as some participants' disinflationary concerns become more acute, which would be modestly USD negative. We think the FOMC is seeking a limited market reaction.
Scotiabank Research: Market expectations are still equivocal on the prospect of a rate increase—barely 50% priced for Dec. We continue to look for a third rate tightening at the end of the year but any signs that conviction is weakening will likely weigh on still fragile USD sentiment. The balance sheet wind down may be modestly USD-supportive; broadly, longer-term yield spreads have moved against the USD this year as global central banks (for the most part) approach the end game of extra-ordinary accommodation...Broadly, markets appear to be positioning for more volatility post FOMC and shading bets towards USD weakness.
RBC Research: The day ahead revolves around the FOMC decision, forecasts and press conference. That the Fed is poised to announce the start of balance sheet run-off and take a pause on rate hikes at the September meeting has been consensus for some time now and should not be news. Interest will therefore be in other aspects of the meeting, such as the evolution of the dot plot and particularly the introduction of the 2020 dot. How this relates to the 2019 dot (and whether the 2019 dot drops to keep the curve sloping up) will be an important signalling device on the timing of the peak in the rate cycle. We think the most likely outcome would be to keep the high in Fed Funds at around 3%, but push that to 2020 from 2019 so as to avoid embedding a peak or plateau in the profile. This outcome would be neutral to slightly USD-positive.
Nomura Research: We expect the primary messages from the 19-20 September FOMC meeting to focus on the commencement of the balance sheet roll off in October. That said we do not expect any additional substantive guidance or details than what has already been provided. Instead, major decisions involving the ultimate size of the balance sheet and its composition will rest with future Fed leadership, in our view. Based on incoming data and the performance of the economy, we expect only several modest changes to the Summary of Economic projections (SEP) compared to June, with the median forecasts for inflation for 2017 and 2018 being marked down in response to the recent weakness in inflation. We also expect the median longer-term federal funds rate to tick down below 3% as members revise down their views of the terminal rate.
UniCredit Research: We expect the committee to announce the gradual normalization of its balance sheet...With the balance-sheet announcement being broadly expected, the bigger question may actually be whether the FOMC will adjust its outlook for short-term interest rates. We do not think it will and anticipate that FOMC members’ median interest-rate projections (the “dots”) will continue to show another rate hike occurring this year, followed by three more in 2018 and another three in 2019. To be sure, a few individual members may downgrade their rate expectations, but this is unlikely to be enough to move the median. If anything, the biggest risk is for a downward revision of the 2019 “dot".
SocGen Research: The FOMC move is all about putting down a market that Fed policy is getting back to normal. Starting BSN if that's the right term, is a return to 'peace-time' policy before Janet Yellen departs (if she does). It's also an leap into relative unknown (never been done before) which is happening into a market which seems as relaxed as a teenager getting ready for a bungee jump. This market knows no fear. Watching EM sovereign and corporate spreads is critical in the days ahead but if there really is a muted reaction, surely (sounding like a broken record here) the dollar gets a lift as a Dec hike comes into sight....long USD/JPY our chosen tactical poison.
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