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cryptokingrobiul · 7 years

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Today's Trade: Risk on as French results buoy confidence

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has jumped 0.5% to 5882.7 in the first hour of trade amid an improved global risk appetite after pro-European centrist Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French presidential election.

Financials are leading gains with the for major lenders up 0.8%-1%. Materials are lagging despite stronger iron ore prices, with BHP down 0.2%.

Overseas, the markets overnight swung back into risk-taking mode on the basis that pro-growth centrist Emmanuel Macron will become France’s next president.

The EUR jumped the most since December and the JPY retreated as Macron and far right nationalist Marine Le Pen won the first round of voting.

US stock index futures rose, while contracts on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average soared. Gold dropped and 10-year Treasury futures fell the most since March 1. The results of the weekend vote, in which both establishment parties were eliminated, triggers a run-off on May 7 between two radically different visions of the country’s future.

Le Pen, who wants to take France out of the euro and clamp down on immigration, has trailed Macron, a committed globalist, in almost every opinion poll for the runoff by a margin of some 20 percentage points. A snap Ipsos survey late on Sunday suggested he’d win by 62% to 38% for Le Pen.

US stock futures opened sharply higher, with Dow futures soaring nearly 200 points with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures mirroring sharp gains.

Macron and Le Pen were neck and neck in the polls heading into the contest, with communist Jean-Luc Melenchon and conservative Fillon not far behind. According to French polling firm Ifop, the four candidates were separated by only 6 percentage points as of Friday.

The tight poll numbers led investors to dump the country’s sovereign bonds in favour of more stable German debt, pushing the spread between French and German 10-year yields to a near two-month high.

US earnings

Monday

Alcoa, Newmont Mining, Kimberly-Clark, Illiinois Tool Works, Hasbro, Halliburton, Whirlpool, Express Scripts, Ameriprise, Range Resources, Canadian National Railway, J&J Snack Foods, Owens-Illinois, Crane

Tuesday

Caterpillar, 3M, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Dupont, Eli Lilly, Novartis, AutoNation, Baker Hughes, SAP, Biogen, AT&T, Lockheed Martin, PulteGroup, Freeport-McMoran, JetBlue, AK Steel, Polaris, Paccar, Valero Energy, Xerox, TransUnion, Arconic, Capital One, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Discover Financial, U.S. Steel, Juniper Networks, Stryker, Panera Bread, United Health Services, Valvoline.

Wednesday

Boeing, Daimler, Fiat Chrysler, Pepsico, United Technologies, GlaxoSmithKline, Anthem, Alaska Air, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Hershey, Norfolk Southern, State Street, Credit Suisse, Hess, Seagate Technology, Twitter, Nasdaq, Amgen, Paypal, F5Networks, Tractor Supply, Buffalo Wild Wings, Boston Beer, SixFlags, CR Bard, Whiting Petroleum, Suncor.

Thursday

Alphabet, Microsoft, Intel, Amazon.com, Raytheon, Baidu, Starbucks, Expedia, Comcast, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Flex, GoPro, Western Digital, Vertex , Sirius XM Radio, Under Armour, American Airlines, Southwest Air, MGM Growth, Generac, Domino’s Pizza, CME Group, KKR, Johnson Controls, Union Pacific, UPS, Total, Celgene, Deutsche Bank, Alexion Pharma, Nintendo, AbbVie, Bayer, Air Products.

Friday

Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Honda Motor, Barclays, UBS, Sony, Synchrony Financial, Spirit Airlines, Autoliv, Sanofi, Spirit Airlines, Goodyear Tire, Calpine, Cabot Oil and Gas, Phillips 66, Weyerhaeuser.

Local markets and commodities

S&P/ASX 200 futures unchanged; futures relative to estimated fair value suggest an early gain of 0.1%.

Bank of New York Australia ADR Index up 0.6%, BHP Billiton ADR -0.6% to A$23.67 equivalent, 1.5% discount to last Sydney close, Rio Tinto ADR -0.1% to A$52.33 equivalent, 13% discount to last Sydney close.

Gold has tumbled the most in almost two months this morning as investors swung back into a risk-taking mode on speculation pro-growth centrist Emmanuel Macron will become France’s next president after the first round of voting. Gold prices treaded water on Friday as investors awaited the outcome of weekend French elections and possible announcements about tax cuts in the United States. Spot gold was up 0.33% to $1,285.58/oz, on track for its first weekly drop in six. US gold futures for June delivery added $5.30 to settle at $1,289.10. Gold stocks in Toronto were up 0.46% on Friday. Gold stocks: GOR, NCM, NST, AQG, EVN, KCN, RMS, RRL, SAR, SLR.

Oil prices tumbled more than 2% on Friday, marking the biggest weekly drop in a month, on renewed concerns that increasing US production and high inventories will thwart Opec’s attempts to reduce the global crude glut. US crude futures fell below $50/barrel for the first time in two weeks, with volumes picking up in an active session that by late afternoon showed more than 560,000 front-month contracts changing hands, more than the daily average. US crude futures, which rolled over on Friday, settled at $49.62/b, down $1.09, or 2.2%. For the week, it was down 6.7%, its steepest drop since the week of March 10. Brent futures were down $1.05, or 2%, at $51.94/b, on pace for a roughly 7% weekly decline. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, key Opec members, favour extending their production-limiting deal with non-member producers into the second half of the year. Oil stocks: WOR, WPL, STO, SEA, BPT, OSH, HZN, AWE, KAR, ORG, SXY.

Iron ore continued to recover from last week’s sell-off amid more positive sentiment. Prices rebounded over 4% as physical traders increased the buying off the back of last week’s sell-off. Steel and iron ore futures also found support, with Chinese rebar prices climbing over 3%. Spot iron ore jumped 2.86% to close at $68.22% Iron ore stocks: FMG, BHP, GBG, GRR, MGX, RIO, BCI, SDL.

Copper suffered a third week of losses amid a broad decline for industrial metals on Friday. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed flat at $5,622.50/ tonne, leaving it down 1.2% on the week. The metal used in the power and construction sectors went as low as $5,530 on Wednesday; it’s weakest since January 4. Freeport-McMoRan, which won a temporary permit to resume copper concentrate exports from its Grasberg mine on Friday, will need to show progress in building a local smelter to continue shipments beyond February, Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan said. Aluminium finished 0.5% down at $1,932.50/t. Nickel lost 1.5% to $9,345/t. Zinc closed 1.8% lower at $2,584/t, with lead falling 0.8% to $2,142/t and tin down 0.6% at $19,750/t. Copper stocks: OZL, SFR; Nickel stocks: IGO, WSA; Aluminium stock: AWC.

In other news: Chorus (CNU): Will be added to ASX 200 effective May 2 open; Fortescue (FMG): Iron ore bulls regain the upper hand at end of switchback week; MyState (MYS): Considering options for wealth division, according to AFR; Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO): Recent pullback creates buying opportunity, Jefferies says; WorleyParsons (WOR): CEO says co. not seeking takeover offers, AFR says.

Broker gradings – Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL): Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS

– Regis Resources (RRL): Raised to hold from sell at Canaccord, PT A$3.10

EURUSD and USD Index

The EUR jumped against the dollar after the first round of the French election showed that centrist Emmanuel Macron and nationalist Marine Le Pen were set to reach next month’s run-off.

EURUSD rallied to 1.0934 to print a new 2017 high and now sits above the 200 Day Moving Average.

The gap this morning is significant given it has decisively broken above the 2014 downtrend which had capped the EUR’s moves in Q4 of last year and most recently earlier this year.

We look to buy the retracement, a print of the downtrend would provide support however ideally the gap fill at 1.0736 would offer a more attractive long opportunity.

The USD index this morning gapped down as expected however violated a key trendline which has held every sell down all throughout 2016.

The US dollar index also sits below the 200 DMA and a higher move to the trendline should attract selling pressure.

Today’s Trade is compiled by the Sydney trading desk at Saxo Capital Markets

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#election #europe #france #geramany #us

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