#st5 preditioncs

[chirpsythismorning]

I think what really puts into perspective the likelihood of ST5 premiering in 2025 (I’m gonna predict March 21st for fun), is that a year from now is just barely Summer 2024, and yet as of now, they have not even started filming.

Are fans really expecting them to have season 5 filmed, fully prepped with marketing and promo ready, with everything ready to be released within one year from now (roughly speaking, give or take a couple months)?

In all honesty it's very much the norm for Stranger Things' to have promo leading up to an upcoming season last for months. And I'm not talking like 3-5 months I'm talking a year+.

This isn't like s1 where they put out a trailer and a release date and some low budget marketing roll out on social media, which is something they do for every new Netflix show. This is a $35 million + budget per episode series and thats just to budget for the literal episodes... There are dozens of partnerships they have going on with merchandise and things like that which are discussed and planned for months/years. There are music rights negotiations which go on for months upon years. Shit, post-production has the capacity to take, at the very least half of the time it takes to film, and in some cases as much time or even more. This shit takes time!!!

The build up to a new season is so huge, that each month leading up to it, there are different things dropping, creating the hype that guarantees millions of fans engagement for a long time.

Like 1 year up to the 6 months before the release, promo starts heating up officially. The main accounts for the show will start posting stuff, initially it'll be cryptic using old footage to kind of recap the characters and get us refreshed on where we left off. This time could have some really awesome surprises, but it's mostly casual. If we're lucky we can count on Atlanta filming paparazzi bc those people are insufferable...

6 months up to the one month mark is when it starts to get more real. At this time we're likely to get an episode list announcement, along with sneak peeks and teasers that are quite short, being that they're still likely in the editing process when they are releasing these so it's very much in part them trying to tide us over and keep us interested.

The final 3 months leading up to it is when it gets REAL real. This is at the latest when we'll get a release date announcement, but that's a worst case scenario. I feel like it took so long for them to announce s4, and not until like Feb 2022 bc they wanted to be certain certain. And that could apply to s5 as well. The state of the world isn't like awesome I would say... Look what happened last time? Like it sucks to be the person to say that but I think also considering delays in general, for any reason are a possibility, is also what contributes to my open mindedness about an early 2025 release.

And so based on what we should be expecting for marketing, that means that assuming s5 would somehow premiere in summer 2024, means we are already close to the one year mark, which means promo should be ramping up right now, with literal content to share? And yet we have nothing filmed...?

A lot of people have this idea that s5 is going to take as much time to film as s1 took, which is just not the case. Not saying it will take as long as s4 took, however it's still going to take a while. One of the main factors for this is an in demand cast with conflicting schedules. In a perfect world, everyone would be available all the time throughout the entire production run. Instead what you have is certain actors not available at this time, and so you have to overlap those that need scenes together and schedule according to all of that. And so even if it wouldn't take more than 7 months to film literally, adding another 4+ months might be necessary to accommodate everyones schedules so that they can have these A/B list actors be able to film scenes together.

And then there’s editing and VFX to account for, happening during filming yes, but also with them needing months to focus on AFTER filming is complete. S5 is arguably going to have more VFX than any other season, as most of the season is expected to be surrounded by UD conditions and with the final battle being pretty epic with a 3 headed dragon potentially. Editing is more likely to be 7+ months post filming AT LEAST, vs. like the 4 or less, which is what I think everyone is imagining and telling themselves.

This is also the last season and so they obviously want to focus on the quality, not their ability to churn it out as fast as possible. Rushing for a quick release is just setting themselves up to flop.

The story is over forever after this (excluding spin-off prospects). It would make sense for them to give themselves the wiggle room to make it perfect (the stakes are so fucking high you guys), as opposed to rushing the entire time just to have it release as early as possible.

This also reminds me of what Noah said when asked about s5 premiering in 2024, where he basically just deflected and said that they want to focus on quality… essentially hinting at the fact that it’ll probably not be soon as we’re expecting, but we’re better off for it bc it gives them time to ensure it's the best that it can be and also is just realistic in terms of considering potential unplanned delays.

And then there are the strike implications. While I think the ST production is lucky in that they wouldn't be impacted as much as other productions, that doesn't mean the solidarity won't impact other parts of the production beyond just the writers. This is an industry where people are extremely overworked and underpaid, where a strike could be on the horizon at any moment. And we’re out here telling them hey i know the conditions are horse shit, but I'm gonna need you to step it up and experience even worse conditions bc I need s5 asap... which is just, it’s asking too much if I’m being honest.

Not trying to rain on anyone’s parade here. I know it sucks hearing that it could be another 1 year and 10 months. But lets be serious right now.

All the action that happens in the fandom, building up to the release is arguably just as exciting as the actual premiere and I think we overlook that. Again, once it premieres, it's over. So being so hellbent that it comes as soon as possible, is built on this idea that getting it is the only worthwhile part of this experience, which couldn't be further from the truth. Hiatus and all of the activity that happens during that time is what makes this experience so unique and without it, none of us would be here.

I think realistically, the timeline for s5 production is likely to look something like filming taking place from May 2023-Feb 2024 (giving them AT LEAST 10 months, but if you ask me srs i think it'll take 12...). We should get an announcement post from the official Netflix/ST social media accounts the very day filming starts.

As time passes and they're filming more and more, we will start to get teasers and sneak peaks from the little bit they have filmed from the earlier episodes in the season. Technically they can't spoil that later stuff too much in promotion, so it does work out for us in that sense.

But in all honesty, well planned out and detailed promo is likely to not start getting official until this fall when they’ll actually have at least (hopefully) over half of s5 filmed, and be planning ahead plenty in advance so all of the promo leading up to the release is well thought out.

I won’t rule out Fall 2024. But there are no Friday dates in fall 2024 that ring any bells to me as being the perfect day? Maybe Winter 2024? Or like January/Feb 2025?

The problem is Netflix loves ST for their summers... But summer 2024 is too soon and Summer 2025 is too late imo...

So what it will likely come down to is them trying to be realisitic about their options, and how to ideally get it to match with the setting of the show, which is something they have tried to do with s2-3, but couldn't in s4 (for obvious reasons), and so I definitely see them thinking ahead to try to bring back that approach for s5 if they are able to.

So filming, best case scenario, ends maybe Jan-Feb 2024. If we give them at least 7 months, which is still arguably rushing to me, that lands them in September 2024.

BUT if they were smart they would be realistic and just plan for late 2024/early 2025 so that they don't have to keep delaying... also why they haven't announced a date/year... if it was for certain going to be 2024, they would say it. But they aren't. That alone should tell us they are not willing to make that commitment bc it's not something that can be made when there are so many impromptu factors at play.

I imagine a scenario though honestly, where it takes them a year (12 months to film), so they won't be done until May 2024, which means that they would have until January 2025 to edit with 7 months for that strictly. And that just honestly feels realistic to me to look at instead of hoping that everything just is swift and fast as possible.

Not to mention ST5 2025 just fits.

However, I don't see anything wrong with hoping for late 2024, since as of now I think it is still possible.

But I also think, keeping all of the factors in mind, most notably a potential strike and also them ensuring quality over a speedy release, I think 2025 is something people should also be prepared for as a possibility.

The good news is that we'll know eventually as s5 starts filming and as time goes on.

If filming is complete in 2023 then we could definitely hope for a fall 2024 release. If filming isn't complete officially until early/mid 2024, then pack up your duffel bags bc we're going back to spring break...