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thrashermaxey · 6 years ago

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Ramblings: Skills Competition, Fantasy Lessons Learned From the Peter Chiarelli Era (Jan 26)

If you missed the NHL skills competition, the highlight of the event was US women’s hockey player Kendall Coyne Schofield becoming the first woman to compete in the skills competition. She did not disappoint at all in the Fastest Skater competition, clocking a time of 14.346 seconds. That is an incredibly fast speed.

Turn on the jets and make history, @KendallCoyne.

The @WhitecapsHockey forward clocked a time of 14.346 in the Fastest Skater event to finish ahead of Clayton Keller (14.526). #NHLAllStar pic.twitter.com/1bF1D8p3zh

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) January 26, 2019

Not surprisingly, Connor McDavid won this event for the third year in a row with a time of 13.378 seconds.

Channelling his inner Al Iafrate, John Carlson won the Hardest Shot competition.

102.8 mph of straight @JohnCarlson74 . #NHLAllStar pic.twitter.com/dz3i70lvXV

— NHL (@NHL) January 26, 2019

I was especially impressed with the skills shown in the Premier Passer event, which was won by Leon Draisaitl. Trying to shoot over those barriers and into those tiny little nets? Goodness gracious. I think this would take me all night!

Draisaitl was dishing out some ferocious sauce in this absurdly hard event

( @EdmontonOilers) pic.twitter.com/rNiIG6z2Nr

— Yahoo Sports Canada (@YahooCASports) January 26, 2019

David Pastrnak was your Accuracy Shooting winner, looking like Brock Boeser at last season’s event (the flow isn’t bad, either).

David Pastrnak can snipe. A blistering 11.309 to take the accuracy shooting competition title. pic.twitter.com/z0rzxTmOmv

— Dylan Nadwodny (@dnadders) January 26, 2019

And here’s Auston Matthews making friends with the fans in San Jose with his jersey tribute to Patrick Marleau.

A little tribute to a @SanJoseSharks legend. #NHLAllStar pic.twitter.com/x0lEVer3Q2

— NHL (@NHL) January 26, 2019

The other big news of the day was the NHL's deployment of Puck and Player Tracking starting next season. You can weigh in on the topic and answer the poll question of whether you are excited about it over at the Forum. One of my initial thoughts: If you are in the stands and you catch a puck with the sensor inside, do you still get to keep it?

At the time, the Peter Chiarelli hiring seemed like the right move for the Oilers. Bringing in a general manager with no previous ties to the organization – particularly one with a proven track record – was long overdue for an Oilers’ team that had been in a rebuild for nearly a decade.

Four years later, it appears that the Oilers have actually fallen backwards. Now they are left looking for a new GM when it became plain to see for even their top management that Chiarelli could no longer be trusted. You’re probably aware by now of the overall damage done to the Oilers’ organization during that time. If you haven’t or you need a refresher, here’s a complete list of the 10 best and the 10 worst moves. In the spirit of balanced journalism, yes, there were positives.

Cam has written an amazing, humorous, dramatic, sensitive, and descriptive piece breaking down the fantasy impact on the Chiarelli firing. So rather than reinvent the wheel, I’ll focus on the lessons learned from the Chiarelli era for fantasy owners. I’m writing this in the spirit of the old Contrarian article that Demetri Fragopoulos used to write here. In other words, some of my lessons might sound like counterintuitive takes. Then again, some of Chiarelli’s moves might have seemed like a good idea at the time (at least to some).

Don’t trade purely to fill a positional need

Trade is one for one: Adam Larsson for Taylor Hall.

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) June 29, 2016

So your fantasy team is stacked at forward but thin on defense. In the hopes of achieving a balanced roster, you are able to find a willing trade partner who in understanding your desire to acquire that blueliner, is able to snag a forward with far superior value from you. You immediately experience buyer’s remorse. That’s similar to what the Oilers must be feeling in shipping away eventual Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall just to acquire Adam Larsson.

It doesn’t necessarily have to be a trade with another owner though. The waiver wire is always a willing participant in a deal (more on that in a bit), but even it can’t stop you from exchanging a forward on pace for 75 points for a defenseman on pace for 25 points. Yes, you have other categories to fill, which could be any of plus/minus, penalty minutes, hits, or blocked shots. So maybe a trade is a better option here. But that’s something that can’t be rushed; otherwise, you’ll run into the same problem mentioned in the earlier paragraph.

This will all depend on scoring and settings, but your team might be collecting enough points every week even with a clear deficiency at a particular position or two. Trust me, I’ve read articles and listened to podcasts from fantasy experts in other sports that swear by not worrying much about balancing your team position-wise. Don’t overthink things. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Just pick up the damn points. Which leads me to my next lesson…

More frequent trading may not improve your team

Time to reintroduce my analogy that Chiarelli started with a house and is trying to end up with a paperclip. https://t.co/MCyZHUP670

— Justin Morissette (@JustinMoris) November 16, 2018

If you haven’t read the story about the guy who started with a paperclip and made various trades to land a house, here it is. Essentially Chiarelli did the opposite of that when he traded Jordan Eberle for Ryan Strome, then Strome for Ryan Spooner, then placed Spooner on waivers (Spooner is now in Bakersfield of the AHL). Chiarelli took a bad trade, and instead of just eating it, he made things even worse.

I’ve seen this firsthand in fantasy hockey leagues. Several years ago, I had someone join one of my fantasy hockey leagues, and he was very ambitious to win right away (as many new participants are). Once he was handed the keys to his keeper team, he made trade after trade after trade in an effort to keep improving his team, which he never seemed to be satisfied with. The other owners must have sensed that he was unfamiliar with the unique scoring system in this league because of all the trades they agreed to. His result for all his work? He finished dead last that season. Not only that, but in one of his trades he parted with his first-round pick. That pick would have landed him Auston Matthews.

Full disclosure: I generally don’t make many trades, and I very seldom make blockbuster trades (the huge ones literally make my head hurt). Maybe I don't trade much because I'm already confident in the team I've drafted. This season I’ve made two trades in one of my leagues, and none in my other two leagues. In one of those two leagues, which is a league of various fantasy hockey writers, there hasn’t been a trade made in a few seasons. I believe that waiver-wire transactions are a better way to improve your team. I’ll explain why.

Let’s say you have your eye on Player X. You offer your Player Y to another owner, who rejects the offer and requests Player Z (who has higher value than Player Y) in return for Player X. Since you desire Player X so much, you agree to trade Player Z in return. You finally own Player X, but you had to give up Player Z in return. Maybe it's a decent trade for you, but you also may have given up too much.

Now switch that to the waiver wire. We might be talking about lesser players here, but the waiver wire doesn’t pick and choose which player you need to part with. You decide that. You get to pick what you believe is the best player (or one that fits your specific need) for what you believe is your worst player. No counteroffers, no back and forth. Sure, there’s higher potential reward with a trade, but multiply that transaction by the number of add/drops you make in a season and the net gain should be higher.

Let the other owner win the bidding war

Welcome to #OilCountry, Milan Lucic! The #Oilers have officially signed the forward to a seven-year contract. pic.twitter.com/arwp4VjU1H

— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) July 1, 2016

$6 million per season sure doesn’t buy what it used to, does it?

Call this losing the battle to win the war. This section refers mainly to auction leagues, although you could also apply it to at what round you draft a player in a non-auction draft. Now I’m fortunate that I’m in a league where I have 72 hours to decide whether to bid on a player. Other real-time auction league drafts give something like 10 or 15 seconds for a bid to stand, which isn’t a lot of time to formulate a decision as to whether that player is worth a higher bid.

Teams that lost out in the Milan Lucic derby have to be thanking their lucky stars that they were unsuccessful in signing him, provided that they didn’t sign their own white elephant contracts that summer (Loui Eriksson, Troy Brouwer, David Backes, and Andrew Ladd all come to mind, and there could certainly be others). This is where auction drafts can be tricky, because you’ll end up paying too much for at least one player and end up trying to stretch your dollar on the rest.

It’s important that with any player, you set a maximum price that you’re willing to spend. Don’t exceed that price. If someone else is willing to go higher, let them pay that price. They’ll have to patch up the resulting holes in their roster afterward. In a salary cap world, value wins the day.

If you have your own lessons that you believe should apply to the Oilers’ current state, feel free to share below.

Enjoy the All-Star Game.

You have no idea how hard it was to get this picture organized… #NHLAllStar #29NHLMascots pic.twitter.com/UooNK07PpE

— LouieSTLBlues (@LouieSTLBlues) January 25, 2019

For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-skills-competition-fantasy-lessons-learned-from-the-peter-chiarelli-era-jan-26/

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thrashermaxey · 6 years ago

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Ramblings: Updates on Klefbom, White, Karlsson; Koskinen Extended; Hronek – January 22

The Carolina Hurricanes have started to lock up their core and the next addition to the list is Teuvo Teravainen. He signed a five-year deal with an average annual value of $5.4-million and it doesn’t appear to include movement/trade protections.

Teravainen has really flourished in Carolina to the tune of 145 points in 211 games, or a 56-point pace per 82 games. It helps playing alongside Sebastian Aho, but Turbo has really found his game with the Hurricanes.

Just as an aside to the contract, I do wonder where Teravainen fits in long term. It seems like the team will move forward with Teravainen, Nino Niederreiter, Andrei Svechnikov, and Micheal Ferland (I’m assuming they sign him) in their top-6. But this precludes re-signing Justin Williams after the season, or possibly bringing in another top winger in free agency this summer (there are a lot of them). And there are always the swirling ‘defenceman for a scoring winger’ rumours surrounding the ‘Canes every year.

I say all this because there’s good evidence that Teravainen is a better defensive forward than he is an offensive one. It’s not to say he’s devoid of offensive talent; I mentioned above he’s played as a 55-plus-point guy since getting to Carolina. But maybe he slides down to the third line once this team is really loaded, filling in the role currently occupied by Williams? A reliable two-way forward who they can use all over the lineup, including special teams. It’s to say that I’m not entirely convinced he’ll be the long-term winger for Aho.

But that’s a year or two down the road. In all, it’s a good contract for the team and gives Teravainen security, and the chance for another multi-year contract when this new one runs out.

Just a fun Teravainen fact: since the start of the 2016-17 season, he has the same assists/60 minutes at 5v4 as Patrick Kane.

It appears Erik Karlsson will not return for the Sharks until after the All-Star Game, which would also include him not playing in the midseason classic itself. It makes sense from San Jose’s perspective; this is a true Cup contender and there is a pretty big gap between the Big Three in the Pacific and the rest of the division. They need him healthy in April, not January.

If you haven’t picked up your copy of the 2019 Dobber Hockey Midseason Fantasy Guide from our Dobber Shop, there’s no time like the present! We only have a couple days of hockey before the break, and that’s the best time to digest all the information necessary to make a run for a league title this year, or set your keeper/dynasty teams up for the future.

It looks like Oscar Klefbom will return for the Oilers after the All-Star break. This is huge for the Oilers if they truly want to make a run for the playoffs as he’s easily their best defenceman and the team has looked near-dead since his injury. Good news, fantasy owners!

Speaking of the Oilers, they have put both Ty Rattie and Ryan Spooner on waivers. I’ll admit, I got sucked into Rattie’s performance alongside Connor McDavid at the end of last year and in the preseason. I didn’t end up drafting him anywhere, but I have used him a lot in DFS. It, uh, hasn’t gone well. Maybe these guys can catch on elsewhere.

Thus concludes the Jordan Eberle trade tree. Outcome: not great!

The last bit on the Oilers: they signed goaltender Mikko Koskinen for three more years with an AAV of $4.5-million. That seems like a pretty big gamble on a 30-year old goalie (31 next season) with 31 career NHL games. Not to mention the team needs to completely overhaul their winger depth from top to bottom, needs another top-4 defenceman, and already has $73-million committed to next season. This should be a team looking to spend as little as possible in goal to try and upgrade elsewhere and this… this is not it.

The Blue Jackets have added Martin St. Louis as a special teams consultant. Presumably, this means he’s helping the team with their power play. As Aaron Portzline noted, the Columbus power play has been absolutely abysmal for two years, ranking last in the league since January of 2017. Special teams aren’t everything, but teams that score on fewer than 1 in 6 power play opportunities are going to struggle to win games, especially at a rate of a Cup contender.

Calgary has some new lines, aside from leaving the top line together:

#Flames at practice today:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm Frolik-Backlund-Neal Tkachuk-Jankowski-Bennett Mangiapane-Ryan-Hathaway

Giordano-Brodie Hanifin-Hamonic Kylington-Andersson

Czarnik, Valimaki, and Prout extras.

— Pat Steinberg (@Fan960Steinberg) January 21, 2019

It’ll be interesting to see for just how long this configuration lasts. It seems like breaking up the second line, which has been one of the best in hockey for a few years now, isn’t a long-term move, more something to get some balance right now.

On the topic of lines and news, Mike Babcock has broken up the duo of John Tavares and Mitch Marner:

#Leafs at practice: Marleau-Matthews-Marner Hyman-Tavares-Kapanen Brown-Kadri-Nylander Lindholm-Gauthier-Holl

Rielly-Hainsey Dermott-Zaitsev Marincin-Ozhiganov

Andersen Sparks

No Gardiner (back spasms), Johnsson (concussion).

— Terry Koshan (@koshtorontosun) January 21, 2019

The Leafs haven’t looked like themselves for a little while now, though it seems much of the issue is a shooting percentage drop on the power play and the injury to Frederik Andersen. Like the Flames, we’ll see how long this actually lasts. I’m skeptical it’ll be for very long.

On the Ottawa front, Sens forward Colin White says he should be back in the Ottawa lineup after the All-Star Game. He had been playing very well on a line with Brady Tkachuk and Mark Stone. I’d like to see him get another chance there.

Drew Doughty scored in Monday afternoon’s 4-3 win over St. Louis, his fifth goal of the season. It’s been a tough season for almost every Los Angeles Kings player, but Doughty is averaging over two hits a game for the first time in years and is on pace for 46 points. Other areas have sagged (plus/minus and shots, notably), but there’s still been enough here to maintain solid fantasy relevance. That feels like an amazing statement given Doughty’s fantasy performances in his career, but it’s more a testament to the team than to himself as a player.

Mackenzie MacEachern scored his first NHL goal in the loss. You can read his Dobber profile here.

The Nashville Predators got scoring from the blue line in the form of Roman Josi’s eighth goal and Ryan Ellis’s fifth en route to a 4-1 win over Colorado. That makes 36 points for Josi, who is now on pace for 58 on the year. He’s doing that despite having just nine PPPs. It’d be fun to see what he could do in a season with heavy minutes on a top-tier PP unit.

Pekka Rinne stopped 35 of 36 shots in the victory for Nashville.

Both Max Pacioretty and Alex Tuch scored in Las Vegas’s 4-2 loss to Minnesota on Monday. Despite the team loss, the second line for Vegas shone once again. This trio has been truly elite in their time together. When Reilly Smith returns, it’s going to be a big decision for the coaching staff as to whether or not they put Pirri on the second or third line. With the way Stastny-Tuch-Pacioretty are rolling, and how good the top line normally is, I don’t know how either of those two trios get split.

Florida received goals from each of Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle, and Michael Matheson, and Frank Vatrano had a four-point night as the Panthers toppled the Sharks 6-2. Vatrano now has 21 goals and 34 points in 63 career games with the Panthers. He’s doing that while averaging about 14 minutes a night.

For Ekblad, it was his 10th goal of the season. That gives him double-digit goals in every season of his career so far, and 63 goals overall. The lack of assists are an ongoing concern but the goal scoring is about as consistent as it gets from the blue line.

Aleksander Barkov had three assists, snapping a four-game pointless streak. He’s also just shy of a point per game with 47 in 48.

I wanted to get some input from the Dobber community. I have a home keeper league (10-team, keep 8) where I made a somewhat-blockbuster trade recently. Let me give you the specifics of the league first:

Points league, categories for skaters are: goals, assists, PIMs, plus/minus, SOG, PP points.

The pool of players I’m considering for keepers for next year include: Vladimir Tarasenko, Mark Scheifele, Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl, Alexander Radulov, Evgenii Dadonov, Viktor Arvidsson, Brent Burns, Kris Letang, John Gibson, and Thatcher Demko. Remember, it’s only a keep-8, so three players from that list would miss the cut.

We don’t divide forward positions, they’re all listed as ‘forward’ so positions are irrelevant.

There are four people at the top of the league standings clustered very close together, me being one of them, and then there’s a big gap to 5th place. I think I have an edge because of fewer games played than the other three teams. In that sense, yes I’m going for it this year.

Last week, I completed the following trade:

I received: Andrei Svechnikov and Mika Zibanejad

I sent: William Nylander and Nico Hischier

My reasoning was that with the uncertainty around Taylor Hall, I think Zibanejad will out-produce Hischier the rest of the season in our format. Also, I am in the running for a league title without Nylander having done anything basically all year. I wouldn’t be keeping Hischier and it’s doubtful I’d keep Nylander. I won’t keep Zibanejad but as I said I think he’s an upgrade for the next 30 games on Hischier. I will definitely be keeping Svechnikov. He’s a guy I peg to be an absolute superstar in this league in a couple years.

I look at it as an upgrade on one guy for this year, and the other is a lock as a keeper for many seasons to come. What do you guys think?

Last week I took a bit of a dive on Will Butcher to see how he’s performing this season, so far in his career, and what it could mean for the future. In those Ramblings, I also discussed other young defencemen like Thomas Chabot and Henri Jokiharju. There is another young defenceman I want to discuss briefly and that’s Detroit blue liner Filip Hronek.

As I’ve stated before, I’m not a prospects writer. I leave that stuff to the good people over at Dobber Prospects. I mostly form my opinion based on their writing, the writing of some other people around the industry, and my own brief observations. All this is to say that going into the 2018-19 season, I knew who Hronek was but didn’t know much about him. I knew he had a good age-20 season in the AHL, I knew he might push for an end-of-roster spot on the Wings, and that’s about it.

He’s opened a lot of eyes, including both of mine, since.

Hronek has only played 22 games, so it should be said we’re not working with a lot of information. That said, here’s where he ranks in various categories among Red Wings rear guards:

Adjusted 5v5 shot share percentage: 1st

Adjusted 5v5 on-ice shots for: 1st

Individual 5v5 expected goals: T-1st

Penalties drawn per 60 minutes: 1st

That’s, uh, pretty good.

Other metrics aren’t as flattering (he’s about break-even in expected goal share) but for just 22 games on a lottery team, he’s standing out.

It might take a year or two once all those awful contracts on the Red Wings blue line start running out before guys like Hronek and Dennis Cholowski can really take over. With that said, I’ve been impressed with Hronek and look forward to what he can do in the future. He’s had a good start, now it’s about building off that and taking the next step.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-updates-on-klefbom-white-karlsson-koskinen-extended-hronek-january-22/

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