#so even if there are sisyphean tasks - and there are many - well do em anyway - brain will like it and then get back to the good stuff

[torontoarenas]

2018-19 NHL Predictions, Revisited

It looks like I didn’t whiff as badly on my predictions this time around as in years past. At least, as far as the standings are concerned. My individual award predictions, on the other hand...

Five Teams I Most Overrated

Columbus. Whereas I had them winning their division, in reality they finished in fifth in the Metro, taking the second wildcard spot. I still don’t think I was terribly off-base to put them where I did. It turns out that Bobrovsky having a down year (going from a .921 SV% to .913) will hurt a team’s position in the standings. Probably not enough to make up the difference between my prediction and the reality, though, so that’s not entirely it. Who knows with these things?

Los Angeles. I figured they’d miss the playoffs, sure, but I didn’t foresee them being “30th place” bad. And to think this was the team Ilya Kovalchuk came out of NHL retirement to play for! He legitimately thought he stood a chance of winning the Cup with them! Shoulda just signed with Boston, pal.

Anaheim. Another team I thought would miss the playoffs, but badly underestimated by how much. The fact that they were in a playoff spot for as long as they were early on is a testament to John Gibson and John Gibson alone. If he hadn’t fallen apart about halfway through the season, he’d deserve a Hart nomination for his efforts. Hell, come up with a new award just to give to him. Call it “The John Gibson Memorial Trophy for Sisyphean Tasks.”

Florida and Philadelphia. Just kinda the opposite of Anaheim’s situation: they’re both OK teams who were undone by poor goaltending. Guess that sort of thing is liable to happen when your starting goalie’s either a million years old (Florida) or a horrifying rat king of eight dudes, only one of whom is approximately good (Philadelphia). Not enough separation between the two for me to be able to tell which I overrated more, so I’m taking the coward’s way out and including both of them in the same entry.

Minnesota. You have to be a really bad team to miss the playoffs in the West, and I suppose the Wild are one of them now. Good to know for future reference.

Oh yeah, and I also definitely overrated the Maple Leafs, but not to the extent that they’d be in my top five. I’ll just skip right past ’em, so I don’t have to reflect on that fact more than I already have.

Five Teams I Most Underrated

NY Islanders. Despite finishing second in the Metro, I still don’t think they’re good. They were 26th in 5v5 CF% (with a quite bad 47.8%) and were around 20th in 5v5 shots-for percentage and 16th in scoring chances. Better, but still not great. Some of their outperforming expectations can arguably be attributed to new coach Barry Trotz. But more importantly, wouldn’t you know it, they had the highest all-situations save percentage in the league. With a tandem of Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss, two guys who are historically pretty good but not world-beaters by any means. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but “crummy shot metrics plus a high PDO” isn’t necessarily the most repeatable formula for winning hockey games. Don’t be shocked if they miss the 2020 playoffs, is all I’m saying. For this year, though, they’re easily the team I got the most wrong.

Arizona. Fuck me for not realizing that Darcy Kuemper would turn into a .933 goalie in 2019, I guess. Incredibly, they still managed to miss the playoffs. Although, now that I think about it, maybe it’s not that incredible. I mean, have you seen the rest of their roster???

Calgary. It was the easiest call in the world to predict they’d bounce back from their surprisingly poor 2017-18 campaign, but to imagine they’d finish second in the league? Wild stuff.

Colorado. Sure, I had them finishing last in the Central, which they managed to avoid doing, but also, they qualified for the playoffs despite finishing 17th in the league and having six more losses than wins. This is now the second season in a row in which they’ve made the playoffs with fewer points than the ninth-place team in the East. Folks, they’re not very good. I don’t know what to tell ya.

Carolina. I left them just on-the-outside-looking-in after they disappointed me by missing the playoffs last year when I predicted they’d make ’em. I’d have looked so smart if I had just stayed the course!! Dang it! Ah well. Can’t be too upset about it.

Awards Predictions

Hart: I said Alex Barkov. My choice was predicated upon Florida making the playoffs and the PHWA deciding again to give the award to the best player on a fringe playoff team. Barkov is one of the best centres in the sport, but in retrospect, this was a real Galaxy Brain prediction and I should’ve picked someone more obvious.

Art Ross: I said Connor McDavid. Not unreasonable, given that he won the last two. I just didn’t anticipate Nikita Kucherov going all the way off and setting the record for most points in the salary cap era.

Norris: I said Erik Karlsson. That’s not gonna happen, but hey, remember when he got off to that slow start and a bunch of people started saying shit like “maybe San Jose made a mistake in trading for him”? Those people are dumb and shouldn’t be listened to. Unfortunately, many of them also vote for these awards. Anyway, Mark Giordano’s probably going to win this thing, as well he should.

Rocket Richard: I said Connor McDavid, but Alex Ovechkin, the Absolute Boy, went and did it once again. I’ve really gotta stop talking myself out of the obvious choice. Even as I acknowledge this, I’m still not certain he can repeat. Stay tuned.

Vezina: I said Andrei Vasilevskiy, and I was probably right. So that’s one-for-eight. I’m batting a whopping .125 over here!!

Selke: I said Sean Couturier. I feel like I should’ve gone with Patrice Bergeron yet again, but we’ll see. I could also see Mark Stone winning it now that he’s been traded to a good team.

Calder: I said Andrei Svechnikov. Wrong. It’s definitely going to be Elias Pettersson.

Jack Adams: I said Bob Boughner, for the same reason I predicted Alex Barkov for the Hart. Which is hilarious to think about now. Maybe if Florida had made the playoffs, he’d have been in consideration, but that’s obviously not what happened.