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neethypaksham · 4 years ago

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Xi Jinping tightens grip on China Tackling of virus, muscular approach, economic recovery have helped mute critics

A year that began in China with the country’s leadership facing searching questions about its handling of a new pandemic that struck the city of Wuhan ends with President Xi Jinping firming up his political control.

If 2020 started as China’s annus horribilis, the year has, in the eyes of many strategic experts in Beijing, only hastened China’s ascendancy and narrowed the gap with the United States, its great rival.

Beijing, having broadly controlled the coronavirus at home, is now leading a global economic recovery, as well as adopting, as India discovered through this summer’s border crisis, an increasingly muscular posture abroad. In contrast, the U.S. has struggled with both its response to the pandemic as well as unprecedented political divisions at home, manifested in a closely fought election that ended with the defeat of President Donald Trump, whose term in office marked a deterioration in relations with China triggered by a trade war.

A crisis in Wuhan

Few in China would have expected the year to end as it does. China’s initial fumbling of the pneumonia outbreak that began last December, when the leadership in Wuhan delayed action for three weeks, has now become a footnote, with the leadership showcasing China’s recovery as underlining the superiority of its political system.

Back in February, the death of the whistle-blower doctor Li Wenliang had led to an outpouring of criticism, which prompted Beijing to fire the Communist Party leaders in charge of Wuhan and Hubei province. Mr. Xi then acknowledged the pandemic had posed “a major test” of China’s governance.

In March, a prominent former real estate tycoon with close Party links, Ren Zhiqiang, penned a searing essay directly criticising Mr. Xi’s leadership.

Yet by the summer, China’s controlling of the outbreak, thanks to strict lockdowns and a sweeping testing and tracing system, helped the Party weather the storm. Coupled with the failure of the U.S. to tackle the coronavirus effectively— which the Party propaganda has ceaselessly highlighted as a vindication of its leadership — signs are Mr. Xi remains as strong as ever heading into 2021, a sensitive year that will see the Party celebrate its centenary in July.

Heading into the anniversary, the trend of political centralisation under Mr. Xi is only expected to continue, as also the shrinking space for dissent. Mr. Ren, the real estate tycoon, was in September sentenced to 18 years in jail ostensibly on corruption charges, although the real offence was his critical essay.

The previous month, another prominent critic of Mr. Xi’s from inside the Party, Cai Xia, a professor of the Party School, was expelled from the elite institution that Mr. Xi once headed over her criticisms of his leadership style, which included an observation that a growing number of Party officials were opposed to the political direction under him but were afraid of speaking out.

Strong recovery

China’s subsequent recovery from the pandemic helped the leadership mute its critics, with the world’s second-largest economy likely to be the only major country to grow in a pandemic-hit year. China in the first quarter contracted by 6.8%, but has since recovered strongly, growing 3.2% in the second quarter and 4.9% in the third. Shuttered factories have reopened, although the global slump remains a headwind.

That has prompted Mr. Xi to double down on his push for greater self-reliance, which he has called a “dual circulation” model that strikes a better balance between relying on domestic consumption and external trade.

A key Party plenum held in October discussed “a new development pattern” for the 14th five-year plan (2021-2025) and also laid out a “Vision 2035” blueprint that emphasises more sustainable growth.

China is still struggling with rising debt, a problem worsened by this year’s economic relief measures, and is also pushing for cleaner growth, with Mr. Xi this year announcing a target to go carbon neutral by 2060, which will require a reduction of coal in the energy mix from 58% to less than 50% by 2025.

Assertive Posture

If 2020 has reinforced the belief in Beijing of its global ascendancy, it has also been marked by an increasingly muscular approach abroad on all of its frontiers.

China’s homegrown aircraft carrier, the Shandong, sailed across the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea after being inducted into the navy this year and will be combat ready by early 2021. Beijing has made clear to the new administration in Washington it will brook no interference in its “internal affairs”, even as it has pursued increasingly hard-line policies in Hong Kong, where a new national security law has tightened its grip, and in Xinjiang, where it has hit out at any criticism over the internment of more than one million Uighurs in “re-education” centres.

In early May, China appeared to disregard three decades of a carefully built consensus with India as it mobilised two divisions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), in a move that officials in Delhi saw as aimed at unilaterally redrawing the LAC in Ladakh.

A clash in Galwan Valley in June that led to the loss of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers marked the most serious border crisis with India since the 1960s, leading many former Indian officials to describe 2020 as a major inflection point in relations with China.

As the year ends, a sub-zero LAC remains tense with neither side agreeing on a plan to disengage, with the expectation in India of continued hostilities as the snow melts in the spring and tensions on the border to dominate the relationship next year.

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newstfionline · 4 years ago

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Headlines

Stranded seafarers (Bloomberg) Of the 1.6 million seafarers who work on ships transporting goods or fishing, nearly 20 percent are currently stranded at sea. Their contracts have ended—sometimes in breach of international maritime law—while countries will not let them disembark because of the pandemic, and conditions are deteriorating. The sailors, who are often from poorer countries, lack leverage over the global shipping conglomerates, operators, manning firms and complicated ownership structures that dominate the business of moving cargo. Despite some companies rerouting ships and chartering flights, there are still 300,000 seafarers overdue for relief, and that number rises every day.

Pessimism about US economic rebound (Financial Times) Americans are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the US economic rebound, with almost 90 per cent saying Washington needs to pass a new stimulus package to mitigate the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. The growing concern about the economy, detailed in a new poll of likely voters for the Financial Times, comes even as Americans increasingly believe the country has turned the corner after the spike of infections this summer, which forced several states to slam the brakes on reopening plans. The monthly survey found that more than 60 per cent of Americans believe the outbreak—which has killed almost 200,000 people in the US—is either staying the same or getting better in their local communities, the most optimistic outlook since the summer outbreak began. But that optimism has been tempered by renewed fears about the country’s financial situation, with 42 per cent now saying they were more worried about the economy than public health—a 9-point jump from a month ago.

Congressional Budget Office: Federal debt nears ‘unsustainable’ levels (Washington Times) Federal debt is nearing “unsustainable” levels, but low interest rates have created a window of opportunity for policymakers to rein it in, the Congressional Budget Office said Monday, delivering a mixed forecast for the government’s long-term outlook. Federal spending, currently 21% of gross domestic product, will rise to 31% by 2050, with most of that increase coming from interest payments on the rising debt, said CBO Director Phillip L. Swagel. Federal revenue, meanwhile, stood at just 16% of GDP last year and will reach only 19% by 2050. The gap between the spending and revenue numbers illustrates the problem. “The fiscal path over the coming decades is unsustainable,” Mr. Swagel said in a stark statement describing CBO’s findings. Federal debt held by the public will reach 98% of gross domestic product this year and will cross the 100% threshold next year. It will reach a record 107% in 2023, and by 2050—the end of CBO’s budget window—it will be a staggering 195% of GDP.

Some Protests Against Police Brutality Take a More Confrontational Approach (NYT) PORTLAND, Ore.—Terrance Moses was watching protesters against police brutality march down his quiet residential street one recent evening when some in the group of a few hundred suddenly stopped and started yelling. Mr. Moses was initially not sure what the protesters were upset about, but as he got closer, he saw it: His neighbors had an American flag on display. “It went from a peaceful march, calling out the names, to all of a sudden, bang, ‘How dare you fly the American flag?’” said Mr. Moses, who is Black and runs a nonprofit group in the Portland, Ore., area. “They said take it down. They wouldn’t leave. They said they’re going to come back and burn the house down.” Mr. Moses and others blocked the demonstrators and told them to leave. Nearly four months after the killing of George Floyd by the Minneapolis police, some protesters against police brutality are taking a more confrontational—and personal—approach. The marches in Portland are increasingly moving to residential and largely white neighborhoods, where demonstrators with bullhorns shout for people to come “out of your house and into the street” and demonstrate their support. These more aggressive protests target ordinary people going about their lives, especially those who decline to demonstrate allegiance to the cause. That includes a diner in Washington who refused to raise her fist to show support for Black Lives Matter, or, in several cities, confused drivers who happened upon the protests.

Enormous California wildfire threatens desert homes near LA (AP) An enormous wildfire that churned through mountains northeast of Los Angeles and into the Mojave Desert was still threatening homes on Monday and was one of more than two dozen major fires burning across California. At 165 square miles (427 square kilometers), the Bobcat Fire is one of the largest ever in Los Angeles County after burning for more than two weeks. It was only about 15% contained. Evacuation orders and warnings are in place for thousands of residents in foothill and desert areas, where semi-rural homes and a popular nature sanctuary have burned. Statewide, at least 23,000 people remain evacuated, Gov. Gavin Newsom said. No injuries have been reported for the fire about 50 miles (80 kilometers) northeast of downtown Los Angeles.

Beta drenching Texas and Louisiana with heavy rain (Washington Post) Tropical Storm Beta crawled Monday night inland along the middle Texas coast, the ninth tropical storm or hurricane to make landfall in the United States in 2020, tying a record. Now a tropical depression, Beta had already unloaded more than a foot of rain Tuesday morning, with torrential downpours generating flash flooding around Houston. Another half-foot or more of rainfall was possible for some, with totals in some spots likely to close in on 20 inches. As Beta continues to drift northeast through Wednesday, “[f]lash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely” the National Hurricane Center warned.

Britain to announce new coronavirus restrictions (Foreign Policy) Faced with an alarming rise in COVID-19 cases, U.K. government officials urged people to work from home if they can—reversing calls earlier this month for people to return to their workplaces—while pausing plans to allow fans to attend sporting events and for civil servants to return to the office. (NYT) Prime Minister Boris Johnson also plans to impose new restrictions on nightlife, including the forced early closure of pubs and restaurants in England, as he ramps up the country’s efforts to curb a rising tide of coronavirus infections. Pubs and restaurants will be restricted by law to offering table service only and must close at 10 p.m., beginning on Thursday. The new rules are the most stringent since restaurants, pubs and many other businesses were allowed to emerge from full lockdown in July.

Russia faces problems looking into Navalny case after evidence removed: Kremlin (Reuters) The Kremlin on Tuesday said that Russian efforts to look into the case of opposition politician Alexei Navalny, who Germany says was poisoned, were encountering problems because his allies had removed evidence from the country. Navalny, a prominent critic of President Vladimir Putin, was airlifted to Germany last month after collapsing on a flight from the Siberian city of Tomsk to Moscow. Germany has concluded he was poisoned with a Novichok nerve agent. Russia says it has seen no evidence of poisoning. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was still facing difficulties in obtaining information from Germany.

Tycoon who denounced China’s leader over coronavirus is sentenced to 18 years in prison (Washington Post) China on Tuesday sentenced an outspoken critic of President Xi Jinping to 18 years in prison on graft charges, signaling Beijing’s determination to crush dissent. Ren Zhiqiang, 69, a former real estate tycoon turned prominent political critic, has been a marked man since February, when he wrote an essay criticizing Beijing’s response to the coronavirus outbreak and called Xi a “clown with no clothes.” He was placed under investigation by the Chinese Communist Party in April. The Second Intermediary Court of Beijing announced on its website Tuesday that Ren was sentenced to 18 years prison and fined about $619,000 for corruption and bribery in his previous position as chairman of Huayuan Real Estate Group. The harsh sentence was not a surprise; few have criticized Xi in such a public way in China and escaped unscathed.

Taiwan Strait heats up (Times of London) Taiwan has warned China that it will respond in kind if fired upon after Chinese fighter jets escalated operations around the island, flying repeatedly across the midpoint of the strait that separates it from the mainland. Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province and has vowed to reunify it by force if necessary. Tensions between the two have risen rapidly. After the forays by Chinese jets, Taiwan’s defense ministry said that it had clearly defined procedures to deal with the “high frequency of harassment and threats from the enemy’s warships and aircraft” and added that although its soldiers would not fire the first shot they were authorized to fire back if Chinese forces did so.

New Zealand, an early success story, set to ease most restrictions once again as second outbreak slows (Washington Post) New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced plans Monday to lift coronavirus-related restrictions for most of the country, saying the nation’s mystery outbreak that began in August appears to be largely under control. Restrictions are to be eased Monday evening everywhere in New Zealand except Auckland. Rules there will be eased starting Wednesday evening, when residents will again be allowed to attend gatherings of up to 100 people. But some provisions will remain in place, including mandatory mask use on trains and ferries, as well as planes entering, departing or passing through the city. Officials will reconsider those measures early next month.

Violence intensifies in Afghanistan (Foreign Policy) Dozens were killed in a wave of clashes between the Afghan security forces and the Taliban in the deadliest string of violence to hit Afghanistan since the opening of the peace negotiations between the government and the Taliban earlier this month. Security officials said 57 personnel were killed in the fighting, and although the Taliban did not confirm any casualties, local officials said around 80 militants were killed.

Sudan pressured to sign deal with Israel (Foreign Policy) U.S. officials are offering to take Sudan off its state sponsors of terrorism list in exchange for the country normalizing diplomatic ties with Israel, part of a wider push by the Trump White House to heal divisions between Israel and several Arab states while redirecting diplomatic efforts toward combating Iran. The move follows recent normalization deals between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. The Sudanese government has already expressed interest in “concluding a peace agreement with Israel,” and on Monday, U.S., UAE, and Sudanese officials gathered for a “decisive meeting” on normalization in the UAE capital of Abu Dhabi.

Police shooting rattles South Africa (NYT) Police shootings are about twice as common in South Africa as in the U.S., and not many lead to widespread outrage. But a recent one has: Authorities have charged three officers in the shooting death of a 16-year-old boy with Down syndrome who, family members say, was visiting the store to buy cookies. The shooting has prompted debates over race and police violence. The issue is complex in South Africa, where both the police and the population are mostly Black.

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