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The Family and the Future of Humanity.
In celebration of the International Day of Families (A/RES/47/237), the Group of Friends of the Family, together with civil society, is hosting an event on the theme of the family and the future of humanity in preparation for the Summit of the Future. The objective of the event is to provide a platform to hear the views of experts in demography, economics, and family policy and their findings on family-oriented policies in view of the Summit of the Future, and to provide an opportunity for Member States and civil society organizations to exchange views on this matter.
Watch the The Family and the Future of Humanity!
#permanent mission of belarus to the united nations#center for family and human rights#campaign life coalition#family watch international#the heritage foundation#civil society organization#panel discussion#international day of families#families#30th anniversary#15 may#iyf+30#families and climate change#Group of Friends of the Family
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Ukraine: Nato to send new battle groups to eastern Europe as Russia fails to deliver de-escalation #ٹاپسٹوریز
New Post has been published on https://mediaboxup.com/ukraine-nato-to-send-new-battle-groups-to-eastern-europe-as-russia-fails-to-deliver-de-escalation/
Ukraine: Nato to send new battle groups to eastern Europe as Russia fails to deliver de-escalation
Nato is planning the deployment of new combat units to central and southeastern Europe, as it accused Russia of failing to pull troops back from the borders with Ukraine.
The move – which could see four “battlegroups” totalling 4,000 troops in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia – would represent the biggest shift in the alliance’s military posture since it set up operations in the Baltic states and Poland in the wake of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.
Separately, the UK is sending an additional 900 personnel with tanks and armoured vehicles to bolster its existing mission in Estonia as tensions mount over Vladimir Putin’s intentions towards Ukraine.
Moscow on Tuesday indicated it was pulling troops back after joint military exercises with Belarus and was willing to continue diplomatic discussions over its demand for Ukrainian membership of Nato to be permanently ruled out.
But Mr Stoltenberg said that, far from withdrawing a force estimated by US president Joe Biden at up to 150,000 men, satellite imagery suggested that Putin had in fact moved his troops to more offensive positions. Ukrainian authorities also reported cyberattacks on official websites.
“So far we do not see any sign of de-escalation on the ground – no withdrawals of troops or equipment,” said the Nato chief following an emergency meeting of alliance defence ministers in Brussels. “Russia maintains a massive invasion force ready to attack.”
Western intelligence briefings that an invasion of Ukraine could come on Wednesday were mocked by Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.
“To the regret of many Western media, the war again failed to start,” Zakharova told reporters. “Fighting has erupted on their pages, but it has no relation to reality.”
In a Facebook post, she asked the “mass media of disinformation” in the West “to reveal the schedule of our ‘invasions’ for the upcoming year. I’d like to plan my vacations.” Mr Stoltenberg said that it was “not too late for Russia to step back from the brink of conflict and choose the path of peace”.
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But he said that Nato must face up to a “new normal” in which Moscow is ready to use force contest the fundamental principles that have underpinned European security for decades.
As a consequence, he said, ministers had decided to “develop options to further strengthen Nato’s deterrence and defence, including to establish new Nato battlegroups in central and eastern and southeastern Europe”. France has already volunteered to lead one group in Romania.
Mr Stoltenberg insisted the alliance’s actions were defensive and insisted that “Nato is not a threat to Russia”.
The Russian defence ministry published video that it said showed tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and self-propelled artillery units leaving the Crimean peninsula.
But a senior Western official said that intelligence showed Russian military exercises in the vicinity of Ukraine remain in an active phase and could intensify during the remainder of February.
“We are at a peak period where the exercises that the Russians had announced are in their active phases,” the official said.
There are “no credible signs at this point that there will be any kind of military de-escalation,” said the official said, adding that Russia could now attack Ukraine “with essentially no, or little-to-no, warning”.
This infographic, created for The Independent by statistics agency Statista, shows the relative military strength of Ukraine and Russia
(Statista/The Independent)
Defence secretary Ben Wallace, who attended the Brussels meeting, said the UK was bolstering the Nato response with additional troops, as well deploying naval and air power in the region.
The Royal Welsh battlegroup of around 900 troops began moving from bases in Germany and Britain to join a similarly-sized detachment of UK personnel already in Estonia under the long-standing Operation Cabrit mission. A further 1,000 servicemen and women remain on standby in the UK, while 350 have taken up their posting in Poland.
Meanwhile, Apache helicopters will make their way to conduct exercises with Allied partners in eastern Europe.
Four additional UK Typhoon jets have also landed in Cyprus and will shortly begin to patrol the skies over eastern Europe.
And the warship HMS Diamond is shortly to set sail to join HMS Trent conducting patrols in the eastern Mediterranean, alongside Nato allies from Canada, Italy, Spain and Turkey.
Mr Wallace said: “Alongside our Nato allies, we are deploying troops and assets on land, sea and air to bolster European defences in response to the build-up of Russian military forces on the border of Ukraine.
“Nato and our allies have been clear that an invasion of Ukraine will be met with severe consequences.
“De-escalation and diplomacy remain the only path out of this situation.”
Mr Stoltenberg said the movement of Russian troops revealed by intelligence were indicative of “the kinds of actions and measures that we expect will come in advance of a bigger military intervention into Ukraine”.
He said: “We do not know what will happen in Ukraine, but the situation has already demonstrated that we face a crisis in European security.”
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Ukraine Crisis: US could sanction Putin if Russia invades, Biden says...but don't tell to his european allies
The tensions in Europe are so high today. Germany and France has started a direct talks with Russia and Ukraine to de-escalate tensions between Kyiv and Moscow to be held in Paris today. But US president Joe Biden send troops for its allies by Nato.
Biden said there would be "enormous consequences" for the world if Russia made a move on the nation, which sits on its south-western border.
His comments came as other Western leaders repeated warnings that Russia would pay a heavy price for invasion.
Russia has accused the US and others of "escalating tensions" over the issue and denies it plans to enter Ukraine.
However, Moscow has built up troops at the border, with some 100,000 Russian soldiers deployed in the region.
Taking questions from reporters, Mr Biden replied "yes" when asked whether he could see himself imposing sanctions on the Russian president personally the event of an invasion.
He said such a move across Ukraine's border would mean "enormous consequences worldwide" and could amount to "the largest invasion since World War Two".
Mr Biden added that he would feel obliged to beef up Nato's presence in eastern Europe.
"We have to make it clear that there's no reason for anyone, any member of Nato, to worry whether... Nato would come to their defence," he said.
But he repeated that there were no plans to send US troops to Ukraine itself.
Russia responded angrily to the remarks and accused the US and NATO of "flooding" Ukraine with weapons and western advisors.
"There is no explanation for what the American fleet is doing near the Russian coast," Moscow's Permanent Mission to the United Nations said in a statement.
Separately Mr Biden's administration has said it is working with oil and gas suppliers around the world to boost shipments to Europe in the event of Russia cutting off supplies, the New York Times reports.
Russia currently provides about one-third of the crude oil and gas imported by the European Union.
Earlier UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the Western allies would respond to any incursion with "severe" economic sanctions, adding that Britain was prepared to deploy troops to protect Nato allies in the region.
He raised the issue of banning Russia from the Swift international payments system, a move which senior Russian officials said meant Europe would not be able to pay for and receive Russian products.
Meanwhile French President Emmanuel Macron said dialogue with Moscow would continue.
He would speak by phone to Mr Putin on Friday, he added, and seek clarification about Russia's intentions towards Ukraine.
Washington has also warned Russian ally Belarus that it would "face a swift and decisive response" if it assists in an invasion.
The Kremlin has said it sees Nato as a security threat, and is demanding legal guarantees that the alliance will not expand further east, including into neighbouring Ukraine. But the US has said the issue at stake is Russian aggression, not Nato expansion.
Fears of invasion have prompted Western embassies in Kyiv to withdraw some personnel.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tried to reassure his nation in a TV address on Tuesday.
"There are no rose-coloured glasses, no childish illusions, everything is not simple... But there is hope," he said. "Protect your body from viruses, your brain from lies, your heart from panic."
He said he was working to arrange a meeting with the leaders of France, Germany and Russia.
What's it means: The war is coming....
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Why most top Foreign Office posts are held by women
Government jobs Why most top Foreign Office posts are held by women
Bureaucrats’ lessons for business
BEFORE 1946, women seeking a role in the Foreign Office could become typists, cleaners or diplomats’ wives, although in 1934 a forward-thinking ambassador suggested they help pick out soft furnishings for the Office of Works. Until 1972 they had to leave the service on getting married; “pestering”, as Dame Nicola Brewer, a former High Commissioner to South Africa, would later recall, was a scourge in the 1980s. “Making a fuss would be career-limiting.” Such treatment left a long shadow. After the current head of the service, Sir Simon McDonald, was knighted in 2014, there were as many men called Sir Simon in the top two grades of officials as women.
But in the past few months, women have seized a clutch of the top jobs. In February Dame Karen Pierce was appointed ambassador to America, becoming the first woman to hold the role since it was created in 1791. Her old job of permanent representative to the United Nations was filled by Dame Barbara Woodward on August 6th. Women fill the ambassadorships to Britain’s other best pals in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing pact: Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Sarah MacIntosh speaks for Britain at NATO. Women hold the ambassadorships in Beijing, Moscow, Rome, Mexico City, Stockholm and the Vatican, and are soon to take up post in Germany and the Netherlands. They fly the Union Flag in the stickiest spots: Afghanistan, Zimbabwe and Belarus. In total, nearly a third of Britain’s ambassadors, heads of mission or governors are women.
Firms that wish to deal with their own gender imbalances can take some lessons. One is that the leadership needs to be candid about the problem. In 2018, Sir Simon had a wall of mirrors erected in the Foreign Office’s headquarters, each representing a top job that a woman had yet to fill, and encouraging passing women to put their face in the frame. Over time the mirrors have been replaced by portraits of those who got the posts. Some field-seasoned officials find the exercise “a bit cringe”, but it sends an unambiguous message.
Another lesson is the need to build a reliable pipeline. The current crop of female ambassadors began their careers several decades ago. The Foreign Office receives thousands of applications from top graduates each year, which means there’s no excuse for not creating a diverse intake. This year’s fast-stream intake was 60% female, and nearly a quarter non-white. And it’s no good scrabbling round for Mandarin-speaking women the moment a plum China post is advertised. The field of potential applicants for senior jobs is surveyed several years in advance, and potential candidates head-hunted and given advice on how to get themselves qualified.
Another practice is to bunch vacancies together. Filling them one-by-one can result in women becoming the serial runners-up, whereas interviewing for half a dozen at a time forces management to look at the bigger picture.
Then there is flexibility. Diplomatic life has traditionally meant moving a whole family from country to country every few years. But the life of a “trailing spouse” is increasingly unattractive for modern couples. The FCO no longer expects husbands or wives to toil on the cocktail circuit; some diplomats in posts close to Britain commute between their home and their posting each week.
The diplomatic corps is still some way short of its aspiration of looking like the Britain it serves. NneNne Iwuji-Eme, Britain’s High Commissioner in Mozambique since 2018, is the first black woman to hold the rank. Officials would like to see more non-white diplomats follow. Sir Simon will be succeeded next month by Sir Philip Barton as the permanent under-secretary, a post a woman is yet to hold, and women are outnumbered on the management board. But next month Britain’s aid department, which is a bit more diverse, will be subsumed into the Foreign Office. As in the private sector, a merger brings the opportunity to shake things up at the top.■
This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline "Who runs the world?"
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Check out New Post published on Ọmọ Oòduà
New Post has been published on http://ooduarere.com/news-from-nigeria/world-news/irans-qods-force-and-modern-proxy/
Iran’s Qods Force And Modern Proxy Wars
Based on the analysis prepared by Dennis M. Nilsen, PhD exclusively for SouthFront
The Qods Force is the irregular warfare unit of Iran’s Corps of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (Sepah-e Pasdaran-e Enghelab-e Eslami). Created during the Holy Defense to augment the capabilities of the Sepah to include irregular warfare, it has since become one of the chief means of expanding Iranian ‘soft power’ within the Middle East and throughout the world. Carrying the Persian name for Jerusalem, it is emblematic of the eschatological significance of the Islamic Republic’s regional military strategy. More has come to light about this secretive organization since its inception, but precious little of its organization, personnel, weaponry and operations is known, and comes to light only in the wake of its suspected activities.
The close of the Holy Defense in 1988 saw the completion of the first chapter of the history of the Islamic Republic – conventional war. The peace which followed left the new government intact but the population war-weary; the government needed to turn its attention to rebuilding the infrastructure and bringing orderliness to the disrupted lives of its people. The armed forces – both the Artesh and the Sepah – though rich with battle experience, had been worn down and desperately need this peace.
If this war taught the Iranian leadership anything, the lesson was: prevent another conventional attack by pushing the frontier for possible conflict as far as possible from the border. To safeguard the home of the Revolution – which Khomeini and his followers viewed, and still view, as the only legitimate Islamic government, and the one which is meant to prepare the way for the return of the Mahdi – a sizeable buffer had to be constructed to allow for its endurance. While Iran had not been defeated in the Holy Defense, it had been severely wounded by Saddam’s army with Western backing. At end of the war, Iran was in shortage in key resources and finance. The war clearly exposed the weaknesses of both the Iranian economy and the armed forces. The mujtahid rulers needed to create and perfect a national defense based upon self-reliance in order to turn Iran into a fortress for Islam from which calls for Islamic unity in the face of Zionist and Western imperialist influence could issue. Having survived this baptism of fire intact, and with geopolitics still centered around the bipolar contest between the United States and the Soviet Union, the time for such a reconstruction appeared optimal.
The Sepah was created immediately after the Revolution in order to counter threats from armed opposition groups inside Iran such as the MKO (the Mojahedin-e Khalq or People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran) and to protect the ideological integrity of the new political system. Originally a paramilitary formation, during the Holy Defense it necessarily took on a military character while shouldering with the Artesh the burden of fighting. During the war, in addition to the many conventional battles fought against the Iraqis, the Iranians also deployed special forces to the front line in the mountainous terrain of the north, and behind the lines to support the Kurdish struggle in northern Iraq against Saddam Hussein regime. To mirror this unit within the Artesh, the Sepah created the Qods Force to engage in all aspects of irregular warfare. Thus, the role of Quds force in the establishment of Hezbollah’s Islamic Resistance (al-Muqawama al-Islamiyya) in 1982 during the Lebanese Civil War was inevitable; following this it was used to support the operations of the Hezbe Wahdat Shia mujahedin in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation.
By supporting Hezbollah and the Hezbe Wahdat, Iran was able to counter, respectively, the American/Zionist coalition and the Soviets, thereby keeping these two groups from threatening the territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic. When Khomeini died in 1989 and was succeeded by Ali Khamenei, who oversaw the transition from a war to a peace economy, Qods was able, along with its parent Sepah, to maintain its level of funding and even to increase its relative importance within the military strategy of Iran.
Having discussed the ideological and strategic origins and purposes of the Qods Force, let us look at its structure and methods of warfare. Apart from its three senior commanders, no names can be attributed to either its leadership or the remainder of the force. Major General Pasdar Qassem Soleimani, presently the most well-known Iranian soldier, has commanded the Qods Force since 1997, and his two deputies are Brigadier General Pasdar Ismail Qaani and Brigadier General Pasdar Ahmad Sabouri. Because all members of Qods are taken from the larger Sepah, one can presume that it retains the same rank structure as its parent, although it is impossible to verify or deny this. Similarly, although the size of the Qods Force can be approximated, its small-level tactical organization can only be guessed at based upon the arrangement of other comparable military units. As indicated previously, Qods has two missions: advising and training of foreign military and police, and clandestine operations. Teams of men for either type of mission may be formed ad hoc out of the service pools of each of the eight directorates suspected to exist. According to the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, Qods is divided into the following eight directorates:
Iraq
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen (Persian Gulf)
Israel, Lebanon, Jordan (Middle East)
Afghanistan, Pakistan, India
Turkey
Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldovia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia (former-Soviet Union)
Central and Western Europe and the United States and Canada
North Africa
Further, US military intelligence suggests that Qods is divided into several branches of specialization:
Intelligence
Finance
Politics
Sabotage
Special operations
Because however its operations are unconventional, there is no reason to think that the Qods Force has an organization remarkably different from other secret services. For its clandestine operations, something approaching a commando team of varying size (anywhere from 5 to 15 men led by one or two officers) seems reasonable. Also, there could be organic, permanent units of Qods assigned to each directorate, each with a different operational specialty, and these would invariably be combined-arms units but with the component men varying depending upon what needs to be accomplished. For the advisory and training missions, arguably what constitutes the greatest percentage of Qods assignments, one can imagine an officer/NCO structure corresponding to the level of the ranks needing training; e.g. so many officers of such a rank to train their peers or lower ranking officers, and likewise so many NCOs to train their peers or enlisted men. As a side note, it has been suggested that Qods trains most of its clients in either the Sudan or in Iran itself.
For all of these missions, the officer/NCO ratio is necessarily higher than in the rest of the Sepah. For this reason, it can be argued that officers and NCOs comprise a large majority of the Qods Force personnel, seeing that enlisted men would not be used to train or advise their superiors.
Where does the Qods Force carry out its clandestine operations? From reasonable conjecture regarding the structure, the reach of Qods is world-wide. It has been suspected of involvement in South America (e.g. in supporting the government of Venezuela), of continuing to intervene in Afghanistan against the American presence, of constituting a permanent training and advisory role to the Islamic Resistance of Hezbollah, of supporting the Syrian government since the conflict of 2011, and most of all of involvement in Iraq since 2003. Since 2008, the Qods Force has been given control of all military operations in Iraq, and it formed and currently oversees the three primary Shi’ite paramilitary organizations which work in conjunction with the Iraqi military: Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (“League of the Righteous”) with 10,000 members, Kata’ib Hizb Allah (“Brigades of the Party of God”) with 30,000+ members, and the Saraya al-Salam (“Peace Companies”) with anywhere from 10,000 to 50,000 members. This theatre of operations, provided indirectly to Qods by the Americans, gives the most continual experience to its members through the training and directing of these militias. In the theatre of the Persian Gulf, the recent attacks against oil tankers bear the mark of what Qods is capable of, but the Iranian Government has consistently denied responsibility. Conversely, American and Israeli special forces possess the capability to carry out such false-flag attacks and their histories give plenty of examples. Currently, the most important missions which Qods directly or in which it participates are:
Missile shipments to Hezbollah
Arming and directing of Shi’ite militias in Iraq
Support of Syrian Government
Support of Houthis
As to types of weapons, the Qods Force probably uses the same species as other special forces (e.g. United States Green Berets, Russian Spetsnaz, British SAS), that is:
Handguns (e.g. PC-9 ZOAF)
submachine guns (e.g. MPT-9, KL-7.62mm)
heavy machine guns (e.g. MGA3)
portable MANPADs (e.g. Soheil)
rocket-propelled grenade launcher (e.g. Raad, RPG-29)
anti-tank weapons (e.g. Saeghe 1/2)
portable mortars (e.g. 37mm Marsh mortar)
plastic explosives (e.g. C4, Semtex)
The use of heavy equipment does not correspond to its missions.
In terms of size, the active personnel of Qods has been estimated to be anywhere from 5,000 to 20,000, although the most common number given is 15,000. Globalsecurity.org asserts that in 2008, the Iranian Supreme National Security Council authorized an increase in the size of the group to 15,000, but this cannot be presently confirmed. By comparison, the Russian Spetsnaz has a strength of roughly 5,000, the United States Green Berets 7,000, the British SAS 400 to 600.
Moving to consider its place in the Iranian political ideology of Twelve Shiism, Qods Force bears great eschatological significance. A fact which receives barely any coverage in the Western press, the founding of the Islamic Republic was clearly stated by Ayatollah Khomeini to coincide with the approach of the end of the world. As Twelver Shias, Khomeini and his successors are convinced that the maintenance of velayat-e faqih is critical to the return of the Twelfth Imam, Mohammad al-Mahdi. The eschatology of the Jafari School of Jurisprudence (the official legal teaching in Iran, named after the Sixth Imam Ja’far al-Sadiq) names Jerusalem as central to the return of the Mahdi and to the establishment of Islamic government throughout the world; i.e. the golden age of Islamic rule as promised by the Prophet Mohammed. According to Sunni and Shia prophecies, the army foreordained to conquer Jerusalem is to be comprised of mostly people from the region of Iran with Iranians having a great and important role in the event. Thus, the naming of the special operations subset of the Sepah after the Persian name for the Holy City of Jerusalem should show the rest of the world just how important to the Iranians is the maintenance of their system of government by all means possible. Currently, the use of Qods to engage in asymmetrical warfare against the American-Israeli alliance is the best means to ensure this end. Presently, Qods can be seen as forming a ‘shield-forward’ for the Islamic Republic from a strategic point of view; this gives eschatological importance to their continued support of Hezbollah in Lebanon and to their great commitment in men and material to ensure the continuance of the Syrian government. They believe that when Imam Mahdi returns, Zionism, which Shia regard as one of the main tools in the struggle between Good and Evil, will be defeated in the final great battle for Jerusalem. Therefore they are approaching as close as possible to Israel, serving at the front line. They have succeeded in giving Iran a reasonable amount of protection, if at the expense of their allies who are physically closer to Israel. The American Navy remains a threat in the Persian Gulf, but the wider Sepah, to whose vigilance this theatre is committed, are confident they can close the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. The strategic balance is currently in favor of Iran and they have thus fulfilled what they believe to be their role in preparing for the Mahdi’s return.
Of those who believe in the eschatological purpose of the Islamic Republic, the Qods Force is unquestionably the vanguard of the coming march on Jerusalem, and the Western press ignores this to their own peril and the continued ignorance of their audiences.
From military and political standpoints, Qods has been very effective. Iranian strategy has, since the 1979 Revolution, been to keep the American-Israeli alliance and its proxies at bay. As stated previously, due to Iran’s inability to wage a full-scale war against both countries, the use of unconventional warfare has made the Qods Force come into prominence within Iran’s national defensive strategy. Through both its advisory/training roles and its clandestine operations, Qods is used to prevent Iran’s two chief enemies from realizing strategic objectives in the Middle East and Persian Gulf and to make their continued presence within Iran’s immediate zone of security as costly and unpleasant as possible.
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ORZYSZ, Poland — Soon after a U.S. Army convoy crossed Poland’s border into Lithuania during a major military exercise this month, two very strange things happened.
First, four Army Stryker armored vehicles collided, sending 15 soldiers to the hospital with minor injuries.
Then, hours later, an anti-U.S. blog claimed a child was killed and posted a photo of the accident. Lithuanian media quickly denounced the blog post as a fake, designed to turn public opinion against the Americans and their Baltic ally.
The bloggers had borrowed a page from the playbook of Russia’s so-called hybrid warfare, which U.S. officials say increasingly combined the ability to manipulate events using a mix of subterfuge, cyberattacks and information warfare with conventional military might.
The exercise, which involved 18,000 U.S. and allied troops, offers a window into how Army commanders are countering not just Russian troops and tanks but also twisted truths. They occurred as President Donald Trump is sidling up to Moscow by bad-mouthing NATO, calling for Russia to be readmitted into the Group of 7 industrialized nations, and planning a summit meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia next month.
U.S. commanders say they are tuning out Trump’s comments — strengthening ties to allied armies, increasing the number of troops and spies devoted to Russia, and embracing Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’ newest defense strategy, which focuses more on potential threats from Russia and China and less on terrorism.
“The Russians are actively seeking to divide our alliance, and we must not allow that to happen,” Dan Coats, director of national intelligence, warned separately in a speech in France the day after the June 7 accident in Lithuania.
Over the past year, the United States and its NATO allies completed positioning about 4,500 soldiers in the three Baltic States and Poland, and have stationed several thousand other armored troops mostly in Eastern Europe as a deterrent to Russian aggression.
In Brussels, allied defense ministers met recently in advance of a NATO summit meeting in July. They approved a plan to ensure that, by 2020, at least 30,000 troops, plus additional attack planes and warships, can respond to aggressions within 30 days.
These tensions are part of an expanding rivalry and military buildup, with echoes of the Cold War, between Washington and Moscow.
The doctored photo of the Army accident in Lithuania was just the latest reminder of what U.S. officials called Russia’s increasing reliance on cyberattacks and information warfare to keep its rivals off balance.
Last year, for instance, Lithuanian prosecutors investigated a claim of rape against German soldiers who were stationed in Lithuania as part of a NATO mission to deter Russia. Ultimately, the report turned out to be false. Moscow denied being involved in any disinformation campaign aimed at discrediting troops, but the incident was widely viewed as an attempt to sow divisions among the allies.
Moscow is flexing its conventional might, too, sending military forces for its own exercises along its western border with Europe and also to Syria and eastern Ukraine. Additionally, Russia is building up its nuclear arsenal and cyberwarfare prowess in what U.S. military officials call an attempt to prove its relevance after years of economic decline and retrenchment.
In response, the Pentagon has stepped up training rotations and exercises on the territory of newer NATO allies in the east, including along a narrow 60-mile-wide stretch of rolling Polish farmland near the Lithuanian border northeast of here called the Suwalki Gap. The corridor is sandwiched between the heavily militarized Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Moscow’s ally, Belarus, and is considered NATO’s weak spot on its eastern flank.
In the unlikely event of a land war, U.S. and allied officers say, the region is where Russia or its proxies could cut off the Baltic States from the rest of Europe. Since Russia annexed Crimea and supported separatists in eastern Ukraine, Eastern Europe has felt increasingly vulnerable.
“Putin is a bird of prey,” said Piotr Lukasiewicz, a retired Polish army colonel and former Polish ambassador to Afghanistan. “He preys on weak states.”
The Polish government has offered to pay the United States up to $2 billion to build a permanent military base in the country, an offer the Trump administration is weighing cautiously. U.S. forces are, apparently for the first time, flying unarmed Reaper surveillance drones from a Polish base in the country’s northwest. Nearly 2,000 Special Operations forces from the United States and 10 other NATO nations carried out one of their biggest exercises ever — Trojan Footprint 18 — in Poland and the Baltics this month.
Elsewhere in Europe, Norway agreed two weeks ago to increase the number of U.S. Marines training there regularly, to 700 from 330, drawing an angry protest from Moscow.
The Russian military threat has changed markedly since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Putin has invested heavily in modern infantry forces, tanks and artillery. Moscow has also increased its constellation of surveillance drones that can identify targets and coordinate strikes launched from other weapons.
Russia’s big war game in Belarus last year — known as Zapad 2017 — involved tens of thousands of troops and raised concerns about accidental conflicts that could be triggered by such exercises, or any incursions into Russian-speaking regions in the Baltics.
The Kremlin firmly rejects any such aims and says NATO is the security threat in Eastern Europe. Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, met with Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian general staff, in Helsinki, Finland, this month, in part to discuss “the current international security situation in Europe,” a spokesman for Dunford said.
A mobile U.S. command post here in northeastern Poland reflects the Army’s new realities in Eastern Europe.
Soldiers accustomed to operating from large, secure bases in Iraq and Afghanistan now practice disguising their positions with camouflage netting. Troops disperse into smaller groups to simulate avoiding sophisticated surveillance drones that could direct rocket or missile attacks against personnel or command posts. Intelligence analysts track Twitter and other social media for information on their adversaries and local sympathizers.
“We have to be nimble,” said Brig. Gen. Richard R. Coffman, a deputy commander of the Army’s 1st Infantry Division who is overseeing much of the U.S. training from a command post in Orzysz.
Asked about the Russian threat, Coffman, a third-generation Army officer from Fort Knox, Kentucky, echoed a sentiment of many officers interviewed over the course of three days: “To say I wasn’t worried would be foolish, but it doesn’t keep me up at night.”
The largest U.S. component in the $21 million exercise, called Saber Strike, consisted of roughly 3,000 soldiers from the 2nd Cavalry Regiment, a storied Army unit that tracks its lineage to 1836. To practice its ability to move quickly in a crisis and sustain itself along the way, the regiment drove 950 vehicles about 840 miles from its base in Vilseck, Germany, to a training range in southern Lithuania — roughly the distance from New York to Atlanta.
The road march was a proving ground for enhanced technology, such as new, small reconnaissance drones and electronic-jamming equipment to thwart Russian probes.
For Lithuanian officers, many of whom have served alongside Americans in Afghanistan and Iraq, the expanded allied presence is welcome payback for the Baltic contributions to those counterterrorism campaigns of the past decade.
When it comes to Russian aggression, the Lithuanians have long memories. Hanging in the spacious office of Maj. Gen. Vitalijus Vaiksnoras, Lithuania’s second-ranking officer, is a huge painting of the Battle of Orsha — from 1514 — when a force of 30,000 Lithuanians and Poles defeated 80,000 Russians.
“We cannot afford to be weak,” said Vaiksnoras, who studied in San Antonio and at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. “The Russians will take advantage of that.”
Lithuania’s army has grown to 10,000 full-time soldiers, a roughly 25 percent increase in the past two years, the general said. Conscription has been reinstated. And the military has bought new infantry fighting vehicles, air defenses and howitzers.
At a training range about 15 miles from the border with Belarus, Col. Mindaugas Steponavicius, commander of the Lithuanian army’s 3,000-soldier Iron Wolf brigade, said he was sharpening his forces by training with NATO partners like the United States and Germany.
He is putting aside Trump’s comments and relying on soldier-to-soldier bonds to deter Russia.
“If you are a small nation, you have to have good, strong allies,” said Steponavicius, who has combat tours in Afghanistan and Iraq. “When we have such a neighbor, allies matter.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Eric Schmitt © 2018 The New York Times
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Ms. Rosita Šorytė
Ms. Rosita Šorytė is a Lithuanian diplomat currently enjoying a sabbatical from her work. Graduated from the University of Vilnius, she has served on behalf of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania at the Permanent Mission of Lithuania to UNESCO, the Permanent Mission of Lithuania to the Council of Europe, the Permanent Mission of Lithuania at the United Nations, and worked as the representative of the Lithuanian Chairmanship of the OSCE at the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. She was the chairperson of the European Union Working Group on Humanitarian Aid on behalf of the Lithuanian pro tempore presidency of European Union in 2012-2013. As a diplomat, Ms. Rosita Šorytė specialized in humanitarian aid and peacekeeping issues, with a special interest in the Middle East. She also served in elections observation missions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Belarus, Burundi, and Senegal.
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