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manxlilac1-blog · 6 years ago

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Cubs Pipeline Alchemy: If at first you don't succeed...

As people flow into and out of my articles, on occasion I need to restate the premise. Cubs Pipeline Alchemy articles are an attempt at merging "the draft" and "player development". Forty rounds seems like an absurdly high number, until you find that some players in the later phases help the organization. Pipeline Alchemy articles are about discussing how to turn second and third day selections into value beyond their perceived value.

As often happens, this voyage starts with a recent post by Arizona Phil at The Cub Reporter. (Specifically, his response from the early morning on March 12.) His work is available to Cubs fans for the asking. By reading his comments, you get the undistilled knowledge of someone who is not only on-site in Mesa, but grasps what he's looking for and at. Recently, he reported on an intrasquad scrimmage, and it soaked enough value in the report to help educate the novice and veteran alike.

I begin with his note on Tyler Durna. A 2018 15th-round selection from the University Of California, San Diego, Durna’s advancement in the system until now has been as far as the Eugene Emeralds. Teasing anything substantial from his 105 pro plate appearances is a bit of a fantasy. His career has barely started, and the future figures to tell more than the past. However, as a 15th-round choice, you’re welcomed (and encouraged) to mentally place whatever level of expectation/value on him you wish.

My book on Durna is that he is a defense-first first baseman. He homered once for Eugene, and put together a .716 OPS as an age-appropriate hitter in the Northwest League. That doesn’t scream “jump a level, and go directly to Myrtle Beach, skipping over South Bend”, but that may be what is happening. Over the last few weeks and months, news and innuendos regarding the designated hitter and added roster sizes from April through September have increased the value for first basemen in baseball.

The Cubs have almost actively avoided first basemen recently. While the claim could be made that they have no reason to prioritize first baseman with Anthony Rizzo around, the Cubs have gone beyond that. The last first baseman they seemed to even bother with was Daniel Vogelbach. Justin Bour was made available for the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft in 2013. Their first basemen in many levels the last few years have often been catchers on a day off from wearing the extra gear.

That method has greatly improved the Cubs catching depth (Taylor Davis, Ian Rice, P.J. Higgins, Jhonny Pereda, Miguel Amaya, and others have benefited) through added repetitions, but the Cubs lack of “thumping bats” from first basemen is a bit disconcerting. As such, Durna might be given the first base job in Advanced-A with precious little competition. Looping this back into the draft, it would be rather easy for the Cubs to add another two or three first basemen to the pipeline without burning much in early draft selections.

To go with Durna, 2018 tenth-round heist Luke Reynolds might be largely a first baseman in South Bend. While the premise is to usually let the player stick at the most challenging position as long as possible, mind Reynolds deployment in the Midwest League. If the Cubs determine he is a first baseman, he become more about slugging, and less about finesse. From a tenth-rounder, if he can mash his way to Double-A or beyond, that works for me.

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Another edit the Cubs are running with is having certain starting pitchers dodge the Midwest League entirely. It started in 2017, with 2016 third-rounder Tom Hatch starting full-season ball at Myrtle Beach. Alex Lange, added as a compensatory pick for losing Dexter Fowler in the draft, jumped from Eugene in 2017 to Myrtle Beach last season. Keegan Thompson, a 2017 third-rounder from Auburn University, followed the same flight plan.

Per Arizona Phil, 2018 second-rounder Paul Richan (added as a compensatory pick for losing Jake Arrieta in free-agency) and 2018 14th Round selection Riley McCauley might be making the same jump. If a team runs contrary five times over three years in pitching development, at some point, it begins to sound like a bit of a trend.

McCauley poured almost twenty pro innings on top of a career-high 55 in his 2018 college campaign. The 6-1 right-hander was better in his limited pro stint than he was in East Lansing with Michigan State. His walks were a bit high at both stops, but he limited pros to less than a hit an inning, and fanned more than a batter and a half per nine innings more than when with the Spartans. To use my own parlance, McCauley sounds quite a bit like a 40 pitch reliever to me, if he develops.

Richan tossed just under 90 innings in college in 2018, and piled on nearly 30 more as a professional. In his time in Eugene, Richan had a WHIP of .809, fanning six times as many hitters as he walked. It isn’t surprising Richan is being considered for skipping the Midwest League. He had a few starts in Eugene where he seemed unchallenged.

This isn’t to guarantee future success for Richan or McCauley. It’s about assessing whether advanced arms can thrive after missing a level. I’m not sure yet, but I’ll be intrigued to see if the Midwest League is less-essential in the future for starting pitchers. More data points for-the-win.

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Andy Weber was a second-day choice from the Atlantic Coast Conference’s Virginia Cavaliers last June, in the fifth round. His OPS in Eugene in 2018 was .691, and he looks to be the guy in Myrtle Beach. The comment notes him as a second baseman, but the Cubs rarely break the edges that firmly. I expect Weber to get looks across the infield, much like when he played second, third, and short in Eugene. The mild surprise is that Levi Jordan, a 29th-round senior sign from the University of Washington, is making the same jump.

If I’m the only one thinking about a Trent Giambrone redux, I’m not doing my job very well. I’ve been saying for years that the Cubs have been doing well later in the draft. The assessment was questioned, as the picks hadn’t debuted in MLB. David Bote is now one. Giambrone has impressed in Mesa. Weber and Jordan, who were on-campus twelve months ago, have already had MLB camp cameos, and may be getting regular chances in Advanced-A, already.

Trends often begin to take shape in the minor leagues. This happens whether you’re paying heed, or not. If you want to have an idea of “what’s next,” an awareness of what’s continuing and changing in the pipeline is a step in the right direction. From whatever sources are available, Pipeline Alchemy will attempt to track the system’s trajectory.

Source: https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2019/3/15/18260614/cubs-pipeline-alchemy-if-at-first-you-dont-succeed

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junker-town · 7 years ago

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College basketball's preseason top 25, according to us

These are the 25 best teams in college basketball, according to us.

As the summer came to a close, it seemed like the main storylines of the 2017-18 college basketball season were pretty easy to peg.

Will Sean Miller finally get Arizona over the hump and into the Final Four?

Can Duke live up to its “super team” billing this season?

Will freshmen like Marvin Bagley, Michael Porter and Collin Sexton be as good as advertised?

All of those questions became secondary on Sept. 29. That’s the day the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York released a complaint detailing the findings of an FBI investigation into the ugly underbelly of college basketball. Since then, four assistant coaches have been arrested and charged, Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino has been fired, and a handful of high-profile players have been held out of competition.

The FBI investigation isn’t going away, but it also isn’t going to keep college basketball’s 2017-18 season from happening. Beginning on Nov. 10, 351 teams will begin the long and beautiful journey towards March and the NCAA tournament. Here are the 25 teams that as of right now appear to be the class of that large group.

Odds by Mike, evens by Ricky

1. Duke

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

With Mike Krzyzewski fielding the youngest team of his career, it’s easy to see Duke in this top spot for a second straight preseason and wonder aloud: “Are we all making the same mistake again?”

The Blue Devils were a near-unanimous No. 1 choice before the start of a roller coaster season that ended with a surprising second round NCAA tournament loss to South Carolina. While recent history is certainly capable of repeating itself when this many freshmen are involved, there are equally compelling reasons to believe that the Dukies are going to live up to their preseason hype.

For starters, Coach K has a true point guard this season in the form of five-star freshman Trevon Duvall. Instead of forcing Grayson Allen or someone else to play out of position, Krzyzewski will have the comfort of having a true floor general run the show in 2017-18. Also there’s Allen himself, a gifted senior whose tumultuous college career up to this point should allow him to provide the type of leadership last season’s team was sorely lacking.

Sometimes we make things more complicated than they need to be, so let’s also toss this in: Marvin Bagley III is simply a more talented player than any of the guys who suited up for Krzyzewski last year. Fellow freshmen Wendell Carter and Gary Trent Jr. are great too, but it’s the super versatile 6’11 Bagley who truly sets this team apart from the rest of the country. At least on paper.

2. Arizona

Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Can Sean Miller finally make the Final Four? It was already one of the biggest storylines in the sport before the FBI investigation that led to the arrest of long-time assistant Book Richardson and a cascade of recruits immediately decommiting from the program. But unlike other teams, Arizona seems set to ride out the investigation rather than dishing out precautionary suspensions, in the process showing how serious they are about winning right now, future sanctions be damned.

That’s a good thing, because college hoops fans deserve to see this team play. Allonzo Trier is one of the sport’s great individual scorers, a bullish two-guard who can get buckets from all three levels. Freshman center DeAndre Ayton is a certified unicorn whose combination of size, athleticism and skill could make him the most dominant big man in the country from day one. There’s also a potential breakout sophomore star in Rawle Alkins and a host of four- and five-star recruits who provide great depth.

Maybe the FBI investigation will eventually end Arizona’s season before it really starts. Until then, the Wildcats have as much on-court potential as any team in America.

3. Michigan State

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

By the time this season’s Final Four rolls around, it will have been 18 years since a Big Ten team last won a national title. Michigan State, the most recent team from the league to cut down the nets, is hoping to be the same one that ends the drought.

The moment Miles Bridges opted to turn down the chance to be a lottery pick in favor of playing one more season for Tom Izzo he made himself the national Player of the Year favorite and his team one of the top choices to win it all. Despite missing a healthy chunk of his freshman season because of injury, Bridges was remarkably productive in his college debut. He did a little bit of everything for the Spartans in 2016-17, averaging 16.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists per game.

Also returning to East Lansing this season are fellow sophomores Nick Ward (13.9 ppg), Joshua Langford (6.9 ppg) and Cassius Winston (6.7 ppg), who are all expected to take steps forward in year two. Five-star freshman Jaren Jackson should be one of college basketball’s most talented newcomers, and he’ll have frontcourt tutelage in the form of senior forwards Ben Carter and Gavin Schilling, who both missed all of last season because of injuries.

4. Kansas

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas checks just about every box: a productive senior point guard, shooters on the wing, a high-upside freshman big man and one of the sport’s most dependable coaches. The Jayhawks win the Big 12 every year and you’re a fool if you bet against this team doing it again this season.

Devonte Graham played the role of supporting actor last season behind Frank Mason, but he’ll be the leading man now. Graham is a good shooter, a solid defender and the type of veteran ball handler every team needs in March. Svi Mykhailiuk, LaGerald Vick and five-star transfer Malik Newman will knock down shots from the perimeter, while Billy Preston and Udoka Azubuike form a huge and talented front line.

Kansas is the rare program capable of making a run at the Final Four every year. This season is no exception.

5. Villanova

Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

With North Carolina going to back-to-back title games and cutting down the nets last April, what Villanova has done the past two seasons has sort of been swept under the rug. The Wildcats, of course, beat the Tar Heels at the buzzer of the 2016 national title game, and were the No. 1 overall seed heading into last season’s Big Dance with a 31-3 record.

All-American Josh Hart and March Madness icon Kris Jenkins are both gone, but the good times should continue to roll on for Jay Wright and company in 2017-18. Junior point guard Jalen Brunson is a legitimate national Player of the Year candidate, Mikal Bridges has been considered ‘Nova’s best NBA prospect since he arrived in Philly, and former five-star big man Omari Spellman is finally eligible and ready to provide Wright with a dominant post presence.

Toss in the expected improvement of guys like Donte DiVincenzo and Eric Paschall as well as the return of Phil Booth, and you once again have a team that should be right in the thick of the national championship hunt come March.

6. Kentucky

Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

John Calipari is the greatest recruiter alive, and his philosophy on the the trail has never been more transparent. Calipari wants the biggest, faster player at any cost, and that’s how he got this roster, one that feels like it sacrifices ‘fit’ in the pursuit of cold, hard talent.

Kentucky has at least eight five-star recruits on the roster, led by athletic wings Hamidou Diallo and Kevin Knox. P.J. Washington is a bulldog at the four, Nick Richards is an athletic blocker at the five and Quade Green should provide a steadying presence at point. And that’s just the freshmen.

The big question for Kentucky is if they can knock down shots from the perimeter. Size and athleticism should again win the Wildcats the SEC, but it’s hard to advance in March without reliable three-point threats. Perhaps Diallo and/or Knox turns into that type of player. Maybe Kentucky will just ride offensive rebounds all the way to San Antonio. Even with all that talent, this team still feels like it could go boom-or-bust.

7. Miami

Photo by Rob Foldy/Getty Images

Enthusiasm for Hurricane hoops has rarely, if ever, been higher than it is heading into the 2017-18 season. Miami won 10 games in the ACC last season and return a higher percentage of minutes (67 percent) from a year ago than any other team in the conference. Headlining that core group of returnees are all-conference caliber players Bruce Brown and Ja’Quan Newton.

Miami also brings in the best recruiting class of the Jim Larrnaga era, one headlined by McDonald’s All-American Lonnie Walker. If the Hurricanes can avoid the noise that could come with being named in the FBI’s September complaint, there’s no excuse for this team not to finish in the top four of the ACC and earn a top four seed in the NCAA tournament.

8. USC

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Like Arizona, USC is fielding a team with a real chance at the Final Four while also having to deal with the shadow of the FBI investigation. Tony Bland, arrested in the federal probe, was a key, beloved assistant for the Trojans who will be missed. That speaks nothing of the two unnamed players mentioned in the investigation who could eventually be suspended.

If USC has its full complement of players, this squad is incredibly deep and experienced at every position. Jordan McLaughlin, Elijah Stewart and De’Anthoy Melton lead an embarrassment of riches on the perimeter. Chimezie Metu is an elite athlete at center and Bennie Boatright is a gifted scorer as the stretch forward next to him. The bench is stacked too, with Duke transfer Derryck Thornton and freshman shooter Chuck O’Bannon leading the way.

USC finally has the athletes to play the fast, loose style Andy Enfield has always desired. The Trojans are going to be a ton of fun ... unless the FBI or the NCAA gets in the way.

9. Florida

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

For anybody who doubted it, Mike White proved once and for all last season that there would be life for Florida basketball after Billy Donovan. The Gators won 27 games and were one victory away from achieving the program’s sixth trip to the Final Four. That trip could easily come this season thanks to a combination of key returnees and key additions.

Junior shooting guard KeVaughn Allen is back after averaging 14.0 ppg last season. He’ll have backcourt help in the form of senior point guard Chris Chiozza, the buzzer-beating hero from last year’s Sweet 16 win over Wisconsin. Down low, the Gators will be blessed (at some point) by the return of senior center John Egbunu, who tore his ACL last February. Florida also brings in grad transfer Egor Koulechov, who averaged 18.2 points and 8.9 rebounds last season at Rice.

10. Wichita State

Thomas Joseph-USA TODAY Sports

Wichita State is in its first year in the American, but it shouldn’t have needed a bigger conference for validation. This is one of the most dependable non-blue blood programs in the country under Gregg Marshall. He’s done it again this year: in the shadow of the Fred VanVleet-Ron Baker years, Gregg Marshall has built another team with legitimate title aspirations.

The Shockers are again led by a pair of studs in sophomore point guard Landry Shamet and junior forward Markis McDuffie. There’s just one problem: both are currently battling foot injuries. The good news for Wichita State is that there’s senior depth all over the roster, most notably big man Shaq Morris and shooter Conner Frankamp. A new conference might provide new challenges, but expect the Shockers to be healthy and cohesive again by March.

11. North Carolina

Photo by Sara D. Davis/Getty Images

The reigning national champions have a shot at making it back to the Final Four for a third consecutive season. Last season’s Final Four Most Outstanding Player, Joel Berry, is back, as are fellow senior Theo Pinson and Elite Eight hero Luke Maye. The task for the Tar Heels is going to be to find a way to replace the remarkable amount of production that left Chapel Hill after last season.

The backcourt should be fine once Berry returns from his hand injury, but its the frontcourt where Roy Williams needs some guys to emerge. The Tar Heels were successful the last two years largely because they led the nation in rebounding margin and offensive rebounding percentage. Williams will likely ask Pinson and talented Pitt transfer Cameron Johnson, both natural wings, to play more on the block to help out the very green UNC big men.

12. West Virginia

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

West Virginia isn’t beating anyone by surprise at this point. Bob Huggins is going to deploy a vicious full court press operated by a team of hard working, under-recruited athletes. Scoring might be a struggle, but no matter: every game against the Mountaineers is a war, and no one is coming out of it feeling good about themselves.

This year is no different. Jevon Carter is back as one of the country’s top returning guards. Daxter Miles Jr. is a tough and steady senior and Esa Ahmad is a high upside big man who will be valuable once he returns from his first semester academic suspension. There’s nothing overwhelming about West Virginia’s talent level, but they always seem to find a way to grind out wins.

13. Louisville

Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images

There may not be a more difficult team in college basketball to gauge right now than Louisville. On paper, the Cardinals are unquestionably a top 15 team. Quentin Snider has been a steady presence at the point guard position for three years now, and junior forward Deng Adel has the potential to be a First Team All-ACC performer.

The issue, of course, is that the team lost its Hall of Fame head coach just three days before its first practice. It’s hard to imagine that, and all of the other off-the-court distractions, not having at least some effect on the team’s 2017-18 performance.

14. Cincinnati

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati annually fields an elite defensive team that struggles to score. The Bearcats finally made strides towards balance last year when they finished No. 34 in offensive efficiency, the first time they’ve cracked the top 50 since Mick Cronin took over in 2007. There’s reason to believe this team can be even better offensively.

Junior off guard Jacob Evans is a three-level scorer and long defender. Kyle Washington is an inside-out big man who can heat up quick, while sophomore Jarron Cumberland is an ace shooter on the wing. Tough, athletic forward Gary Clarke is still here captain the defense. Cincy will always be a team that grinds out games, but there’s enough talent here to talk yourself into a deep March run.

15. UCLA

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Lonzo Ball era was brief but eventful, as the Bruins went from 15-17 in 2015-16 to one of the most exciting teams in the country a year ago. The good times don’t have to be over just because Ball is now suiting up for the Lakers.

Double figure scorers Aaron Holiday and Thomas Welsh are both back, and Steve Alford has also welcomed in a top five recruiting class. Headlining that crop of freshmen is five-star point guard Jaylen Hands. Hands might not be as flashy running the show as Ball was, but he has the potential to be every bit as effective in terms of producing wins.

16. Seton Hall

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Seton Hall has been building for this particular season for four years. The Pirates will feature four senior starters who have helped the program reach consecutive NCAA tournaments after a nine-year drought, but they still haven’t broken through with a win yet.

This team is good enough to go on a run. Angel Delgado is a double-double machine who should be one of the best front court players in America. Khadeen Carrington and Desi Rodriguez are high scoring guards, and sophomore Myles Powell potentially provides some much needed outside shooting. The Pirates lack a natural point guard, but they’re as tough and experienced as any team.

17. Xavier

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

No one is surprised any more when Xavier is making noise during the month of March. That said, it’s still staggering to see that over the past 10 years, the Musketeers have advanced to the NCAA tournament’s Sweet 16 six times. The most recent of those appearances came a year ago, when Chris Mack’s team pulled three upsets before falling to Gonzaga in the West Regional final.

Despite all the program’s postseason success, Xavier has still never experienced a Final Four. Musketeer fans are hopeful that streak will end in a few months thanks to the return of All-American candidate Trevon Bluiett, who poured in 18.5 ppg last season. He and senior J.P. Macura should make up one of the best backcourts in the country.

18. Minnesota

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Gophers had the biggest single-season turnaround in college basketball last year, going from an 8-win team to a 24-win No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Almost everyone returns, including elite shot blocker Reggie Lynch and senior point guard Nate Mason. Amir Coffey, a smooth 6’8 sophomore wing, is the most talented scorer on the team and should end up as one of the better players in the Big Ten. There’s also Mr. JellyFam himself, Isaiah Washington, creating offense off the bench. Minnesota won’t surprise anyone this year.

19. Notre Dame

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame is in the midst of one of the most successful stretches in program history, one which appears set to continue this season. The Fighting Irish have won 82 games since the start of the 2014-15 campaign, the most they’ve ever won over a three-year stretch. They advanced to the Elite Eight in both 2015 and 2016, and won a game in last year’s Big Dance before being ousted by West Virginia.

The good times figure to keep rolling in 2017-18 thanks largely to the presence of preseason First Team All-American Bonzie Colson. The senior forward was the only player in the ACC to finish last season averaging a double-double (17.5 ppg, 10.2 rpg). He’ll join forces with senior point guard Matt Farrell to form one of the most potent inside-outside combos in college basketball.

20. St. Mary's

Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Is this the year St. Mary’s finally knocks off Gonzaga from the top of the WCC? It feels like it. The Gaels have a legitimate star in Aussie center Jock Londale, a steady lead guard in Emmett Naar, and a high-impact transfer in wing Cullen Neal. There’s shooters everywhere, and one of the country’s best offensive minds, Randy Bennett, finding ways to get them all open.

If the ‘Zags beat this team three times again this year, it will be a real accomplishment.

21. Purdue

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

It’s ever easy to replace a consensus First Team All-American like Caleb Swanigan. It helps when you’re returning the other four starters from the season before and six of that squad’s top seven scorers.

Even without Swanigan, Purdue figures to be a load to handle in the post. The Boilermakers have five players who are 6’9 taller, led by 7’2 center Isaac Haas. They also have a preseason All-Big Ten player in senior forward Vince Edwards, and an all-conference caliber guard in Carsen Edwards. It’s been 11 years since a Big Ten team won back-to-back regular season conference titles, but Purdue has the pieces to at least make a run at ending that streak.

22. Northwestern

Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

Northwestern as a preseason top-25 team? Believe it. After making the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history last year, the Wildcats return every key starter from a team that gave national runners-up Gonzaga a real run for its money in the round of 32. Bryant McIntosh is a productive senior at point guard, Vic Law profiles as one of the Big Ten’s best two-way wings and Dererk Pardon can be a monster on the inside.

The novelty of Northwestern basketball being good is over. Now it’s about building something that lasts.

23. Virginia Tech

Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Virginia Tech broke a decade-long NCAA tournament drought in 2017. A year later, Buzz Williams appears to have a team capable of taking the program to the (modern) Sweet 16 for the first time in history.

The team returns all five starters from a season ago, but also must replace its two leading scorers from last season in the graduated Zach LeDay (16.5 ppg) and Seth Allen (13.3 ppg). No one ever accused Williams of being conventional. The upside is that the Hokies figure to have a fully healthy Chris Clarke, who was the team’s leading rebounder (7.3 rpg) and third-leading scorer (11.4 ppg) when he tore his ACL in mid-February. The Hokies ended the season just 5-4 after Clarke went down.

24. Gonzaga

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

It’s easier to talk about who’s not here, of course, after last year’s national runners-up lost a huge chunk of their rotation. Credit Mark Few for still putting out a team that will compete. Johnathan Williams and Killian Tillie will form a dependable and productive front court, while junior guard Josh Perkins will look to push his game to new heights without Nigel Williams-Goss around.

The most interesting player here is Rui Hachimura, a Japanese import with an NBA-ready body but raw skill set. If he puts it together this season as a sophomore, the ‘Zags will be formidable once again.

25. Missouri

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

LSU couldn’t make it to the NCAA tournament with Ben Simmons and Washington couldn’t even win 10 games with Markelle Fultz. That doesn’t mean there’s no hope for Missouri to have a big season with the similarly gifted Michael Porter Jr.

For starters, Porter Jr. won’t have to do it alone. His younger brother, and fellow five-star recruit, Jontay, helps headline a five-man recruiting class that ranked in the top five nationally. Toss in a handful of key returnees and a proven new head coach in Cuonzo Martin, and it’s not ridiculous to peg Missouri as a team capable of going from eight wins to top 25 caliber in the span of only a year.

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