#or i'm just very late since y7 has been out a while

[yakozy]

Sumire appreciation post!!!!!!!! she is neat and cool and i am free tomorrow night sumire if you’re reading this i’‘ll get you a bonsai im free tomorrow night

[ramblings-of-a-mad-cat]

Okay. I passed Y6CHR45, and... I want to say that this is very bad. I mean, that... This plot twist with Merula is very illogical and obvious. I'm not a fan of Merula, but. First, why it's obvious. Because in the storyline, Merula is our rival, not our friend. How many nasty things did she do MC, etc. Well, it's too obvious that in the future they will try to make her our enemy. Second, why it's illogical. Merula has very different goals. Don't be the same as your parents, take revenge on Rakepick and kill her, become stronger and more powerful. There is not a single point in being with 'R'. Why would she want to work with someone she wants to kill? I think it would be logical if Merula joined the Death Eaters. She and her aunt had been threatened by the Death Eaters. This is what Merula said in Y5CHR28. And Andre was talking about the mark on Merula's hand in year six, when Bill taught us the Barrier Spell. Still, I think Merula was framed by someone. Merula was still ready to drink the Truth Serum. And one more thing. Won't the MC say anything about it? Not to the professors, not to Ben, not to Jacob, not to anyone about what they saw in Knockturn Alley? Hey, JC, we have a Muggle Studies class on Y7, and there will be Merula. MC will just forget about it or what? It's just stupid. I apologize, I have nobody to express this misunderstanding of the JC logic. 🤨 And one more thing. I don't think Merula is a mole. In fact, I think the mole is Penny. Because it's very logical! 'R' could have threatening and blackmailed her, like... They could steal Beatrice, or threaten to kill her, if Penny didn't follow their instructions. Penny, in her fifth year, said she would work with anyone to save Beatrice. And if you add it up in this form... I mean, Penny is the most logical option. She's the most popular girl at Hogwarts. She knows every rumor, she knows the secrets of many students. No one will even think about it! How can you think of one who is very kind, helps everyone, understands Potions, etc? This is my theory, and honestly, I still stick to it. Knowing the character of penny, for the sake of Beatrice she would betray even MC.

I don’t know, I don’t think of it as being that illogical. I suppose it was rather obvious, but in a sense, those two ideas are in conflict with each other. If a plot twist is logical, it can be predicted. If it’s not, then it won’t be, but that’s a whole different problem. In any case, this got very long, so I’m putting it under a cut.

Was it obvious?

She has been our enemy from the start, but her character arc seemed to suggest that was changing. In a way, this actually made her a less obvious suspect. At least to me. She was the primary antagonist of Year 1, but we quickly got used to her nonsense. Stopped taking her seriously. Meanwhile, the story gave her depth. Many players grew to care for her, many pitied her, but even the ones who didn’t no longer saw her as a serious threat. At the same time, the scale was gradually increasing. By Year 5, Merula wasn’t the antagonist anymore, not just because she had been deconstructed, but because the story was darkening, and the times of a school bully being the villain were long over. Hell, by Year 2 we knew about R, and by Year 4 we had Rakepick to wonder about. Year 5 not only brought Merula’s character arc to the point where she became more of a friend (but no less prickly and combative) it also fleshed out the game’s Big Bad to the point where it became clear that this was much bigger than MC, or anyone in their year. Year 5 also exonerated Ben, and later unceremoniously killed the “Rowan is R” theory by having Rowan be imperius’d like Ben was. 

No one took Merula seriously anymore, people felt sorry for her, and we felt as though we understood her completely. That nothing she did could surprise us. This was capped off by the betrayal of Rakepick, compounded with her using the Cruciatus Curse on Merula. Because MC was betrayed, but not by any of the students. But by their mentor, who was always shady in the first place. Merula was put in a horrible position where even her greatest Antis surely felt a twinge of pity for her. Anyone left who suspected her probably wouldn’t have after that night. What’s more, it played into the idea that we understood Merula perfectly. Because she reacted exactly as one would expect her to. She regressed. Year 6 depicted her as someone firmly on our side, but predictably not someone who would be nice about it. From her jabs about Rowan, to her fawning over Jacob, people were annoyed with her, but no one suspected her. The game practically taunts the player, in hindsight, with the veritaserum scene. Because that’s just it - no one thought she would betray MC. They were worried she would go rogue, but no one doubted her loyalty. 

Why did she do it?

As for the logic of her decision, I likewise disagree. I believe Merula had every reason to join R. I don’t think that the Cabal and the Death Eaters are so different that one would make sense for her to join, and not the other, if that makes sense. She could have gone either way, but at a guess, Merula doesn’t think very highly of the Death Eaters. She refers to Voldemort by his name without a care in the world. If they really were threatening her, I feel like she wouldn’t want to cave in, but she might be attracted to joining a rival faction that could provide her (and her aunt?) with protection. If there’s one thing we know about R - it’s that they have a history of making enticing offers to children, provoking them to “prove” themselves to be accepted into the Cabal’s ranks. The description of them being her new “family” gives me cult vibes, and it really sheds some light on why Merula might have been drawn to them. She was lonely, she was angry, she wanted power...and R came along to offer her everything she wanted at the time. Whether she wants to leave now is uncertain, but if we assume that she’s been the mole since the very beginning, it’s probably way too late for her to just walk away. R would not allow that.

As to the sequence of Rakepick torturing her, we don’t yet know what was going on in that scene. Though I am feeling somewhat vindicated in the knowledge that there was more to that scene that meets the eye, just like I was sure there had to be. Perhaps Rakepick and Merula planned that whole thing, perhaps it was staged. Which would mean that Rakepick faked the spell, and Merula pretended to be tortured, and that her entire vendetta against Rakepick has been a facade. Or maybe the curse was real, but Merula agreed to it beforehand. Or maybe she knew the betrayal was coming, but Rakepick went off-script by turning her wand on Merula. Either way, if Merula’s vendetta was real, I don’t think it’s out of character for her to want revenge. Who cares if it’s someone on her side? This is Merula we’re talking about - I don’t think that would stop her. Now, if we assume she was not yet an R mole at the time (I think she was, but for the sake of argument)  then perhaps R reached out to Merula, apologized for Rakepick’s torture and promised that they did not authorize it. Promised that there would be consequences, and Merula could be the one to inflict them, if she agreed to join them. It’s a longshot, but I guess it’s possible. 

The Future.

The existence of this twist doesn’t really create any holes, I don’t think, and while it may put the writers in a tricky position moving forward, that’s not the same thing as them screwing up the continuity of the past. They’ll have to find a way to make this work, and until we see the ramifications, I’m willing to wait on judging how this arc plays out. MC will have a choice to make, certainly, in how they handle this. I can’t wait to see the dialogue. What they do next remains to be seen. Do they confront Merula? Turn her in? Or...if we want to be really sneaky, what we should do, in my opinion...is act as though nothing’s changed. Spread the word to people like Moody and Ben, but...do not let Merula catch on that we know. The way to salvage this situation, from a purely tactical perspective, is to let R believe they still have a spy at Hogwarts...but begin to feed her misinformation. Lead them astray. This is quite literally a war tactic, because hey...this is a war. Now, the issue with that is that Merula will likely face punishment once R figures out that she’s being misled...but hopefully we can save Merula before that point, and to the players who despise her - or even feel like she’d deserve it for her treachery...they probably wouldn’t care anyway.

I don’t think we can really judge based on the Muggles Studies classes, or anything that we know about Year 7. I also don’t expect Jam City to consider what we “know” and in all fairness...I mean, they don’t have to. That is unreleased content. Nothing in the data-mines is, strictly speaking, canon, or part the continuity. With the way that scene ended, it suggests that Merula won’t be returning for Year 7. Maybe. The data-mines contradict this, but data-mines don’t provide the full context. They aren’t released content, and anything could change. There were once data-mines that confirmed Skye as being in MC’s year, as well as suggesting that Murphy felt embittered about his disability. Both of these things were cut. So they’re not canon. In general, I think Jam City has a terrible approach to dealing with hackers, but one thing I will say in their defense is that they aren’t required to write their scenes based on what the fandom has discovered in the data-mines. If we’re confused, well, that’s kind of our own fault. But I’m sure everything will become clear eventually. I hope.

Penny. 

For meta reasons, I don’t see them pulling a double twist and revealing a second character to be the “real” mole, but it’s not impossible. And I’ve said all along that the Year 1 characters were the real suspects. MC unknowingly being the mole was my theory, mostly because Moody is shady as all hell. But Ben is shady too, it’s just that he had a rock-solid alibi in the form of Rakepick trying to kill him, since she couldn’t have known that Rowan would intervene. Setting aside Merula, since I’ve also said from the start that she isn’t a good liar...that leaves Penny. I really don’t think Penny is shady. I’ve never thought that. I’ll admit that she does essentially approach MC out of the blue to befriend them, but I mean...so does Ben. This happens on a much larger scale later on with Alanza. I can believe Penny would go to the ends of the earth to protect Beatrice, and maybe when she was imprisoned in the Portrait, R contacted Penny and strong-armed her into this deal. The issue is, Beatrice is safe and sound as of sixth year. The Black Lake incident is still a bit spotty, and perhaps that was R going after her again...but I just don’t think there are enough hints for me to believe it, personally. If this were true, why was Ben the character who insisted on coming to the Portrait Vault instead of Penny? She could have demanded to come along too, and no one would have blamed her. Everyone would have understood. Not to mention, Penny has severe tells when she’s stressed. She does not act like herself. She’s mostly back to normal in Year 6, and her behavior reflects that Beatrice is safe now, just pulling away. If Beatrice was still on the hot-seat, I feel like Penny would not be keeping it together. Finally, that raises the question of how much Beatrice is aware of all this. Does she know about this deal? Because I find it hard to believe she wouldn’t tell anyone.