#ogm in two different sports at the same games??!

[twizzleenthusiast]

ahhhhh wait ester ledecká three-time olympic gold medalist AHHHHHHH HVĚZDA NAŠE!!!!!!

[vspirit8]

Figure skating: Bunch of thoughts based on recent comments I came across

Warning: Long post ahead (apologies to those who are scrolling through on your mobile devices) 

I came across a comment that praised Chen for his mental strength, which isn't wrong, because the kid does have it in spades, but then they also go on to say that Hanyu's is weak because he lets things affect him too much. Which isn't technically wrong per se but....

...seeing their performances during their short program at the Olys side by side and their individual circumstances coming into it, I find it hard to make sense of this claim. I see the point that they are trying to make but I think they may have mental strength and mental fortitude mixed up and they also have a very one dimensional, or perhaps, selective view of what mental strength is. 

Chen is mentally strong in some ways, not in others. Meaning he's strong in coming back quickly from disappointment, but he can't hold it together during the moment of truth where the stakes are at their highest and the competition its strongest, and only seems to be able to perform at his best when he doesn’t have as much pressure or is relieved of it. Hanyu, on the other hand, has proven time and again he can perform very well under extreme pressure, despite his lack of mental fortitude at other times. Chen, like a lot of other skaters, so far seems to implode at the first sign of disaster during his performance, while Hanyu and even to some degree Uno, are able to leave their mistakes right where they made them and focus on delivering what's left of their performances as best as they could most of the time. I say most of the time because there were times when they did implode almost all the way through. But when they did, it wasn’t because they lost focus due to mistakes. It was due to other reasons that they weren’t able to save the rest of their performance (e.g.: rhythm loss due to tech change or bad mentalscape right from the get-go).

Both Chen’s and Hanyu’s strengths and weaknesses are trade-offs of one another and results have shown that Hanyu's less common brand of mental strength (Chen's type is more commonly found) and, uh, acute sense of competitiveness, is the more effective one in getting the exact final result one truly wants.

Uno also has an enviable and less common sort of mental strength that sees him with less of a tendency to get affected by outside influences, something that is especially handy to have as an athletic competitor (and something that Hanyu most definitely doesn't have despite everything else he does have--Medvedeva, however, has it in spades), but the guy himself has acknowledged that what he has is different from what Hanyu has. He can block out pressure by being so immersed in his own little world he remains unaffected, but he also mentions that, had he had to suffer the same kind of pressure and attention Hanyu has been shouldering for years and expected to deliver results on top of it all (this is also something Medvedeva also seems to be able to do) then he's pretty sure he'd be out of the race pretty quick. Say what you want about the kid's jumps and sleepy attitude, but like every elite athlete, the guy knows himself, because he is right and has proven that he does buckle under pressure when Hanyu isnt around to shoulder most of it like he was originally supposed to (JNats ‘16, GPF '17, JNats ‘17 & WC '18#). And while mental strength is good and all, I think the real secret behind these athletes' success is knowing exactly what both their strengths and weaknesses are.

Since I'm talking about mental strength though, I wouldn't undermine Hanyu's one. He may not be able to block out noise as effectively as others nor can he effectively shut off his brain when skating (he only managed it like, what, once?) plus he may take defeat harder than most others (though not in the sour grapes sort of way but more in a self-punishing way), but when he comes back, he does it swinging three times as hard. Possibly harder. In fact, he swings back so hard, it’s more than enough to make all the difference for him to win it all at the end of the day. So if anything, I'd be afraid of it. And would never underestimate it. Not as a viewer, and especially not if I'm a competitor.

There was also talk that if Chen and Hanyu were to both skate clean under the new rules and scores, Chen would likely come up on top due to the trend of judge's scoring so far this season. To a certain degree, I actually agree. It's entirely possible that a clean Chen with all guns blazing can beat a clean Hanyu who doesn't put out ammo to match because that's how the game is played. This was how Hanyu himself had gotten ahead of past rivals who had been ahead of him. Chen may not have beaten his record that he achieved with less quads but that was also during the era before Chenflation so if both skaters skate clean and Hanyu breaks his previous record, there is no guarantee that Chen with his bigger guns won't get even more simply because judges are compelled to score him as such. From what I observed, scores are relative and aren't given according to what's actually put out (or not put out) on the ice. Miyahara's scoring at SkAm is the latest perfect example of this (higher tech score and lower PCS than she truly deserves). Far from being ashamed and apologetic about it, though, they are making it more obvious, as if they are showing the world what they are really about and there's nothing anyone can do about it. And they'd be right. 

Everything is upside down and inside out when it comes to figure skating, and it's not even at random, so let's not delude ourselves that ISU and the sport they govern over will suddenly become the epitome of clean. Nothing that depends on judging ever is. Hanyu certainly hasn't deluded himself and that is a huge part of why he is able to win--or almost win--the biggest comps, season after season. Strategy based on information you gathered on the environment is key. You don't whine about it. You play their game according to their rules and if you're able to outsmart them (and get this, they're really not all that intelligent), you win. Zagitova did just that last season.* Easily. Not that what she did was easy, quite the opposite, but her strategy, although not easy to pull off, was an excessively simple one. If Tutberidze was testing out a theory with Medvedeva and Zagitova, she was proven right. 

Hanyu himself knows this. Which is why he had the 4lo, his biggest weapon at that point that Chen doesn't properly have himself, ready at hand during the Olys. If Chen had skated his SP clean, he wouldn't have held back on his own ammo, wonky ankle be damned. And if both Hanyu and Chen skated clean with their biggest ammo at hand, based on how judges are forced to judge Hanyu when he's at his very best in the past, I still think the edge would go to Hanyu because when two top competitors are head to head, then it's the little things that count. This is something that Hanyu had accounted for and worked into his winning strategy from Day One, even before all these trigger-happy skaters came out from the woodwork. The guy has what a lot of these shortcut athletes don't: rock solid foundation on both his tech and other performance-based aspects, that judges will be forced to take into consideration when they can't use other things as leverage to justify their scoring.

So, in a scenario where both skaters were to skate clean but only one uses all his ammo, the one with the bigger BV may just win simply because of that. But in a scenario where they both have high BVs with only a slight difference between said BVs, and where both skated perfectly, Hanyu will win not just because he is the better skater. It's because he knows what's inside the judges heads and is able to use it. To me, this, and not his skating skills, is Hanyu's true strength.

*Clearly Chen's and Uno's strategy doesn't work for Zhou, like he was hoping it would. Whining about it won't do much because at this point, it just sounds like he's making excuses for himself for giving judges room to doubt him in the first place, and angry they they chose to doubt him instead of giving him the benefit of it. If he truly wants to get somewhere in this sport, he might want to consider taking a page off Hanyu's and Zagitova's** books instead. It is infinitely harder but you get more control over your results. If he can't pull it off, it's simply because he lacks the ability to and that's no one's fault but his own. I know it sounds harsh but that is the reality of the world and situation he's in. He apparently won't be one of the lucky few who can apply shortcuts and make it work. But if he's able to come back with honest to goodness improvements and gain results in that way, then ultimately, he'll be the luckier one. If he's as wise as he seems to want people to think he is, he should be able to come to this conclusion.

**Admittedly, Zagitova's strategy is slightly different than Hanyu's in that hers also has elements of Uno and Chen's strategy of blinding judges with tech prowess (or so-called tech prowess  in Uno's case, but he seems to have other things to blind the judges with, like nice upper body movements). So Zagitova may not be able to bank on her strategy like she did last season as it was wholly designed to game the last system. Her basics aren't solid enough to enable her control even after a system change/revision but she does have her OGM rep so she may be able to completely cross over to Uno’s and Chen's strategy instead. We'll see.

I mentioned Medvedeva in passing when talking about mental strength because that girl is the epitome of it if I've ever seen one. However, what she doesn't have is a rock solid foundation that sees her with few skating flaws. If she manages to fix at least half of them and get her natural mental strength back into gear, she may just stand a chance against the upcoming lady quadsters, if they still have their quads when they turn senior (and Kihira, if her prowess with the 3A also stands the test of time).

#EDIT: I’ve struck WC18 off the list because it has been brought to my attention that it is not like the others on it. That mistake-ridden performance apparently had less to do with Uno succumbing to pressure and more to do with his injuries and not being in an ideal mindscape to overcome them earlier but was able to snap back into it enough to deliver the last bit of his perf (jumps that he apparently also had trouble with in practices but was able to nail during the performance itself). Having only seen that performance once and not being in the habit of seeing practices and warm-ups of any skaters, I might have been too hasty in my judgment of that particular performance. Thanks to those who corrected me. :)

[the-real-xmonster]

The Olympic Ladies’ Queue - Part 1 (Janny and Alina)

@acrownofbloodandroses​ said:

I’m honestly furious the ISU had the nerve to say they heard our complaints about tech over artistry and proposed all those ridiculous solutions when they can’t even use their own judging system properly. Alina’s PCS were an absolute joke. They’ve done Evgenia such a disservice to ignore all her faults and score her higher and higher each time if they’re just going to throw undeserved PCS at the next skater with an amazing tech score and completely undermine her actual strengths. What a mess. 

Anonymous said:

From Zhenya's interviews: Start of the season :" it's meaningless to upgrade tes without upgrading the quality of your performance". After Olympics :" pcs depends on tes, I need to upgrade my tes" . Ppl complain about jumpers without artistry, but it what judges want. What else can skaters do if they want to stay competitive?

is it just janny and alina's pcs that increase rapidly when they turn senior or does every new senior get this, although maybe not as much? i think i saw that janny's pcs went up more than 10 points from worlds jr 2015 to worlds 2016? i might be wrong though 

You're very good at explaining why skaters get some scores from judges, so even if I don't agree on it at first I can stomach it. So help me understand Alina's PCS for her OGM worthy programs especially in relation to the rest of the field?

I think that the skyrocketing pattern in Janny and Alina’s PCS in their respective first senior season is very problematic. Take their FS for example, Janny’s PCS for her FS at JWC15 was 59.21, by WC16, it was 72.34, a 22% increase. Alina’s PCS for her FS was 62.21 at JWC17 and 75.02 at OWG18, another 21% increase. It’s worth noting that neither of their PCS increase was driven primarily by the more technical areas, TR and CO. Their PCS went up equally for SS, PE, and IN - areas which call for certain degree of maturity and refinement and usually take skaters a lot of time and practice to improve. I know some of you would tell me it’s meaningless to compare across disciplines and time periods, but I’d like to point out, nonetheless, that it took Yuzuru Hanyu exactly 2 seasons on the senior circuit to increase his PCS by 20% (69.40 at JWC10 to 83.00 at WC12). You can try re-watching his FS at those two events and shout at me if I’m overly biased, but I do detect a lot of visible improvements in his skating across those 2 years. 

More importantly, in Yuzuru’s example, you’d see that at WC12, after factoring in the increase, his PCS still adequately reflected his ability, at that point, in relation to the rest of his field, most notably, Patrick Chan’s 90.14 and Daisuke Takahashi’s 85.78. I absolute adore Janny, but at WC16, her PCS being as much as 6 points higher than Satoko’s was unthinkable, especially so in SS and IN. Same goes for the free skate at PyeongChang last week, for both Janny and Alina’s score to be that close in SS to Caro's, or their PE, CO, IN to be that close to Kaetlyn's, and that far ahead of Satton’s, is completely baffling. 

The only clearly observable correlation here appears to be between the two girls’ PCS and consistency: the more events they won, the higher their PCS became, which, of course, gives them an edge over the other girls in subsequent events and further tilts the odds in their favor. In Alina’s case, add on top of that her superior base value and you have a pretty much unbeatable formula for success. I am not saying that it has been easy for either of them to deliver so consistently, but figure skating score should be awarded based on the specifics of a performance, not the skater’s entire career history, and I don’t believe the ISU judges are keeping that very important point in mind. 

If I may bring in a different sport for analogy, the ISU judges’ behavior in over-rewarding Janny and Alina in PCS, if applied to tennis, would call for the ATP giving Rafael Nadal an automatic 3-0 start in every set he plays on clay, because he has been so dominant on the surface and they somehow need to reward that by giving him even more advantage by default. Continuing along that line, the tennis equivalence of giving skaters more PCS (and GOE) because they have higher BV, would be giving players double or triple points, for, say, a service ace - it’s a disproportionate reward given to athletes who excel in only one area of the game. Neither of these examples would be remotely acceptable in any sport, and the fact that both are so prevalent in figure skating is a massive issue.

This issue makes the judging inherently unfair, and worse, it incentivizes skaters and their coaches to approach their skating in a highly unbalanced, lopsided manner. Did it honestly come as any surprise to any of you when Janny said she needed to upgrade her TES? Would it shock you if next season she starts to backload all of her jumps in the second half for the FS? She is already very nearly maxing out on PCS so there’s no practical incentive for her to spend more time on it, and her lost at the OG was a direct result of lower BV. With the way judges are behaving, there is no other means for her to win except raising her TES. For the rest of the ladies in the field, they’d look at Janny and what they see is the sheer impossibility of winning a competition on PCS, even if you were a two-time World Champion going up against a 15-year-old who just turned senior. Is it any wonder if we’ll see more and more focus on TES?

That was a very long and tired rant which probably didn’t tell you anything you didn’t already know about the current state of figure skating. The scoring in the ladies’ field is a mess (ant that’s not to imply that it isn’t a mess in the men’s field), just thinking about it makes me exhausted. The only thing I want to remind you of, to end this largely pointless post, is that none of these things is any of the girls’ fault. The system is awful and we definitely should continue talking about if, if only on the off chance that us fans’ opinions may actually penetrate the ISU’s layers of bureaucracy, but do remember that none of the competitors is to blame for this mess.