#not including an ounce of any actual announced info you can look that all up online | Explore Tumblr posts and blogs

specialchan · 4 years ago

Text

VFF Math Based Q2 Analysis and Q3 Prediction via /r/weedstocks

VFF Math Based Q2 Analysis and Q3 Prediction

CAD unless specified otherwise.

Intro

Third time’s the charm! Right….? It’s an inside joke, don’t worry about it if you don’t understand.

The following is my best attempt at creating a concise version of what I eventually blogged. Essentially… this post is my Reddit-sized 2k+ word version of what is an 11k+ word journey into finding these numbers. If anything I do in the following that seems erratic, the blog is highly likely to contain an explanation for what did.

Additionally you can use that link above to follow any quotes you find below for sourcing the info I’m telling you.

Onward!

I believe I can mathematically “prove” there was a red herring within their Quarter 2 report and that Quarter 3 should show a minimum of 50% Gross Sales growth from Pure Sunfarms.

Starter Math

1,100 x 2.79 x 1.89 = 5,800kg sold Retail

5,800 / .57 = 10,175kg sold in Total

10,175 - 5,800 = 4,375kg sold Wholesale

Looking at VFF’s 2019 Quarter 4 report we can find that PSF sold “over 1,100 kilograms” branded as retail. This would be their first full quarter selling in retail, by the way. The following Quarter 1 headline reported a 179% sequential growth in retail branded sales with the Quarter 2 headline following up with 89% after that.

Our Quarter 2 report also indicates that “57% of kilograms sold” were retail. From that we can conclude the total and wholesale amounts. We are additionally provided with a very useful number, the “All-in” Cost Per Gram, coming in at $0.84/g.

From these numbers above we can find that the Gross Profit from Wholesale is $0.14/g and Gross Profit from Retail is $0.64/g. This $0.64/g is where our red herring “lies.”

Love a good double entendre.

Not-So-Starter Math

Fixed Cost + Profit = Gross Sales

MSRP = Gross sales + Retailer (OCS) Gross Margins

Final Consumer Cost = MSRP + Back-End Taxes

To find this red herring, I needed to break down the $0.64 into more specific numbers. Being that VFF has a unified pricing strategy in place, we actually ARE able to break it down for even more details using the above equation(s).

We start this equation experience from above by grabbing our known $0.84/g CoGs and our mathematically found tax burden of $1.11/g. These two numbers allow us to determine a Fixed Cost (FC) of $1.95/g for this quarter.

Our second variable we can figure out uses reports from the OCS’s first year. From these reports we can determine their retail segment produces 36% Gross Margins. Retail is the key word there for anyone checking in on me.

This next part was much more difficult to determine and requires some educated assumptions to be played out. I might be presenting the math in this specific fashion but it was pretty much all happening at once.

First number for this we will grab is $117.60 for a full ounce straight from the OCS. My initial approach involved the use of the 13% HST, sales tax, from that cost. This weirdly gives an MSRP of $104.07 though.

Using a quote from Mike D about going to retail at the “black market price of $99 per ounce,” after so much failed math, I began a new anchor point of $99.99 being the MSRP anchor point to figure out to see what is actually being charged between the MSRP and the consumer.

When I finally arrived at 4.75% as the additional “tax” amount, the numbers in all the equations started working rounding-ly perfect with each other. From this determination, I will now add this 4.75% to the 13% HST that we already know for what I’ll call the Back-End Taxes (BET) in use of the math that follows.

With all the need-to-know variables in place now I found this:

28-gram - $0.36/g profit - $1.20/g net - 30% Margins

14-gram - $1.03/g profit - $1.87/g net - 55% Margins

7-gram - $1.37/g profit - $2.21/g net - 62% Margins

3.5 -gram - $1.61/g profit - $2.45/g net - 65.7% Margins

1 gram - $1.96/g profit - $2.80/g net - 70% Margins

Little-Bit-Deeper Math

(LF/ppg x 0.80) + (SF/ppg x 0.20) = $0.64/g net profit

I’ll break it down a little bit to how I used it further as well.

(X * 0.8) + (Y * 0.2) = 0.64

X = (0.64 - (Y * 0.2) / 0.8

Y = (0.64 - (X * 0.8) / 0.2

The equation at top of this section is the actual first equation that started this all off. We were provided information that Q2 had 80% of their volume being the Large Format product segment. It’s important to note they specifically classify and record these segments as such.

The Large Format (LF) and Small Format (SF) product segments. More specifically, that the LF has the 14-gram and 28-gram options while the SF contains 1-gram, 3.5 gram and the 7-gram offerings.

Now from this equation above I determined a $0.40/g Large Format profit and $1.60/g Small Format profit. What I see of this finding:

Small Format Net = $2.44/g

Small Format Profit = $1.60/g

In my opinion, the small format profit being so close to the profit per eighth is no accident. The profit margins are simply harmonized as a unit. It’s why they classified it that way.

This is a 30 year experience growing-based company hitting perfect stride for this product segment offering and is likely to always net them right around that sweet 65% gross margins or $1.60 profit per gram.

Makes business-goals sense to me.

Large Format Net = $1.24/g

Large Format Profit = $0.40/g

We found the red herring. If it’s unclear, having a $0.40/g profit in a two product segment offering where one nets $0.36/g profit and the other nets $1.03/g profit, something should seem amiss just in general right there.

To back this claim up further, one needs to simply look into the timeline of releases of this new product segment they’ve introduced. The 28-gram format hitting full stride in availability into a coincidentally timed “stock up” phase of the pandemic. Leading it to be 75.2% of the total volume for Quarter 2.

That’s right more math! We used that weighted ratio formula from above, but in a different way, to figure that 94% of the Large Format was the 28-gram. What makes me so excited about this though, is simply that the 14-gram format was in it’s infancy of availability.

You can browse the PureSunfarms twitter for great details on exactly when everything is, or has been, becoming available. Should you go scrolling, you should find many indicators that point to the 14-gram variant being essentially near full availability in June/July time frame, while the 28-gram format hit stride in April.

The weight the $0.36/g profit has on the Large Format profit per gram should be visibly changing in your mind right now as this company is more than likely to have a future harmonized vision for this Large Format segment as well.

Quarter 3’s VFF report is for July - September as a reference.

Quotes and Tidbits that Guide Us (Aka the info used to apply the math we figured out)

VFF’s switch GAAP accounting method and “trimming” of is books is a great thing for looking into the future. No need to do some weird write-down for your missed sale guess, no valuing “trim” as anything over $0. Just clean balance sheets for growth going forward.

Quarter 2 was the first pivot quarter to full have the new Large Format offerings and their competitive pricing approach on display across their entire line. Timeline release of the the 14-gram format, 2.0 products and adding Quebec brings an excitement for both gross margins and volume going forward.

Beyond the appreciation for the accounting method as an investor and the speculatively exciting future for Pure Sunfarms, we also are provided with some information that relates to why I even did all that math in the first place.

To start, we were told that the Large Format segment dropped to “60% in July, and even down to 45%”-50% for the start of August as well. Immediately giving that $1.60 profit for that Small Format segment substantially more weight to the overall gross margins.

Additionally, “July was a record month for sale of Pure Sunfarms products by the Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia provincial boards.” First month of Quarter 3 confirmed to be record breaking in volume again is undoubtedly a great sign.

When PSF entered a retail product segment the first time, with flower, their first month they commanded a “16% market share” for the OCS by kilograms AND sales. This was even prior to the full implementation of their competitive pricing strategy that we see now. New 2.0 rollout says hello.

Since that induction to retail, they’ve continued on to be the “top-selling brand of dried flower” by volume in the OCS every single quarter.

In Q4 of last year the illegal market was 81% of sales in Ontario was the report. Now there are reports that “legal cannabis market now accounts for 50.5%” of pot spending in Canada. Pure Sunfarms strategy, as mentioned earlier, is to go at the black market prices to increase the pie that is available while putting price pressure on the legal market. Seems to be working.

Wholesales was seeing an “uptick in sales activity to other licensed producers” was commented on August 13th. On August 17th, PSF and Adastra announced a 6,000kg purchase contract over 6 months. The assumption is 1,000kg in August, and 1,000kg in September.

Thoughts behind the “Bear-ish” outlook.

Wholesale Sales:

An “uptick” in wholesales sales includes the Adastra deal that Mike new was imminent. Meaning a likely approximate of 4,500-5,000kg for wholesales being that 4,375kg was the baseline. We’ll use 4,875kg because it’s fun and relatively low impact at $0.14 a gram. They are able to offer the cheapest wholesale tho and that’s going to have benefits.

Retail Branded Sales:

Due to recorded breaking volume in July, the first month of this Q3, the continued decrease in black market percentage and the rollout of their two new strains Pink Kush and D Bubba, I think staying on the same sequential growth ratio trend seems fair. 179%, 89%, 44%.

A 44% growth in retail volume hits 8,352kg for Retail.

Of that, we know the Large Format is on trend to have less weight on the gross margins and profit this go around. To stay on the higher side of anything we are told, we’ll go a 62%/38% volume split. Additionally with the roll out timing of the 14-gram format, I believe an 80%/20% 28-gram/14-gram split seems rationally reasonable.

Thoughts behind the “Good Times” outlook.

Wholesale Sales:

Mike is particular about his words and if he said an “uptick” before an inked deal should mean they were trending close to the same wholesale volume PLUS the Adastra deal. Aggressively, but low impact, we’ll go with 6,100kg for this outlook.

Retail Branded Sales:

They continue to break their volume records, release more products, are available in more locations, have their stabilized pricing strategy in place, 2.0 has started shipping and their two new strains of Pink Kush and D Bubba drawing in a lot of love can only mean one thing. 11,000kg for this part. (or maybe I’m just giving a really good range of Q3-Q4 possibilities).

Nope. Definitely 11,000kg.

Staying on the hype track, we are going to call for a 48%/52% split of Large/Small Formats, and a 65%/35% split of 28-gram/14-gram format to really show that red herring who’s boss.

————————————

Q2 Recap

$19,300,000 Sales (gross)

$12,900,000 Sales (net)

$4,308,000 Gross Profit

33% Gross Margins

————————————

“Bear-ish” Q3 Prediction

$29,279,391 Sales (gross) for a QoQ of 51.7% Growth

($8,352,000 Excise Tax)

($1,500,000 Rev Tax)

$19,427,391 Sales (net)

$14,649,891 Retail Sales (net)

$4,777,500 Wholesale (net)

$8,071,646 Gross Profit

$7,389,146 Retail Sales (profit)

$682,500 Wholesale (profit)

(1 - (“All-in” @ $0.84 / $1.70/g)) x 100 = 50.5% Gross Margins

———————————

“Good Times” Q3 Prediction

43,008,960 Sales (gross) for a QoQ of 122.8% Growth

($11,000,000 Excise Tax)

($1,500,000 Rev Tax)

$ 3,000,000 Bonus September Release 2.0 related gains (This IS the hype section right?)

$27,508,960 Sales (net)

$21,530,960 Retail Sales (net)

$5,978,000 Wholesale (net)

$13,007,680 Gross Profit

$12,153,680 Retail Sales (profit)

$ 854,000 Wholesale (profit)

(1 - (“All-in” @ $0.84 / $1.95/g)) x 100 = 57% Gross Margins on Flower

———————————

Final Remarks:

I hope no one forgot that we are dealing with rounded numbers to the Hundred Thousands and a starting point of “over 1,100 kilograms.” Some elbow nudging and definite guessing went into attempting to reverse some basic math. I do believe to very likely be close to the basic math they used to present us the information they do in the reports. Each decision has a detailed reasoning though, per the blog.

Also, of course also the “Good Times” was simply what I believe to be a realistic, if not low-end, guess for what Quarter 4 likely can show with just a couple of relatively minor adjustments to where the volume comes from.

Additionally having Quebec, 30% of the Canadian population, in their crosshairs, the release of their 2.0 products hitting into steam going in to Quarter 4 and valuing their trim at $0 can only mean “Good Times” in the margins, volume and revenues going forward. Right?

Quarter 2 was Pure Sunfarms “sixth consecutive quarter of positive net income” and the “seventh consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA.” No “adjusted” in those quotes.

How many companies can say that?

Raymond James is long and going longer with their stock price aim in the $20’s. The CEO has just under 20% of the total shares in addition to 10% of YOLO’s portfolio being VFF.

There is already a low float as it is for this stock and the big players are all stocked up. As soon as retail starts to realize, she definitely runs quick as a stock if you’ve ever watched it.

VFF is currently valued at about (CAD) $383 MILLION.

APHA valued at $1.7 BILLION

ACB at $1.25 BILLION

CRON at $2.46 BILLION

CGC/WEED at $7.84 BILLION

I know they all have additional factors at play, and a fair point was made to me that I should be more clear in a price determination reasoning.

As such I’m not specifically saying a pricing point for this post, as I’m doing more diligence to present that based upon further logics/maths. Especially because all the math in the world cant predict what the market will do.

I’ll simply state though that this striking difference in valuations seem bound to close in gap, and I’m not saying I think the other companies will come down in value. An important note is that I largely believe that near all of PSF’s valuation as full transferred to VFF already.

There may be some of the value floating out there that will increase VFF’s valuation in “finally” points, but the inevitability of VFF owning Pure Sunfarms outright is even something Raymond James is willing to publicly state as an eventual fact. Just look at EMH’s stock price. How can you attribute only VFF’s full PSF valuation being 57%+ and then….look at EMH place the equivalent 42% value…?

No. I don’t believe so. In the eyes of the market, the value of PSF has mostly moved already.

The eyes of the market and eyes of the law don’t always time up, but they usually relate eventually. Just look at Moderna, got a $100 Million contract and has only gone down since.

Buy the rumor, was the saying?

Lastly, the veggie business historically has shown an approximate $1-$2 value effect in stock price as a general note simply for thoroughness.

Okay so for anyone that made it this far, thoughts? Very much open to a discussion on this!

Submitted September 08, 2020 at 03:03AM by Thirty2wo via reddit https://ift.tt/3hcWVYW

0 notes

blockheadbrands · 6 years ago

Text

New York Cops Still Making Cannabis Arrests, Despite Mayor’s Policy

Chris Roberts of Leafly Reports:

Despite recent headlines about New York City dropping marijuana possession cases and expunging convictions, NYPD cops and prosecutors are still arresting and threatening people with jail time for cannabis possession. They’re using a legal loophole to do it.

Scott Hechinger is a senior staff attorney at Brooklyn Defender Services, one of the city’s largest public defender agencies. One of his colleagues is defending a client who was arrested recently for using a cannabis vape pen. Hechinger drew attention to the situation Saturday on Twitter.

Scott Hechinger✔@ScottHech

· Sep 15, 2018

Replying to @ScottHech

As expected. Super busy. Will have to download closer to lunch probably on this morning’s action. But thought for now: On way over, passed the local diner & owner was apologetic I had to work today. My response: It’s way worse to be on the other side of the bars. I’m all good. pic.twitter.com/taXhVDmfPw

Scott Hechinger✔@ScottHech

Lull while I wait for interpreters (Spanish & Punjabi). My colleague just met client charged w/ possession of a controlled substance for allegedly smoking “THC oil.” Remember when NYPD wasn’t going to be arresting anyone for low level marijuana possession? They found a loophole!

7:53 AM - Sep 15, 2018

659248 people are talking about this

Twitter Ads info and privacy

According to Hechinger, “THC oil” is classified differently than cannabis leaf. The THC oil in a common vape cartridge, he says, is considered a Class “A” misdemeanor, which is punishable by up to a year in jail.

Everything You Need to Know About Pre-Filled Oil Vape Cartridges

The low-level marijuana offender in question was handcuffed and jailed overnight for possession of a controlled substance—a little more than a week after Brooklyn DA Eric Gonzalez announced an initiative to erase up to 20,000 low-level cannabis convictions—”solely [because] he was smoking a vape pen [and] not a joint,” Hechinger said.

This draconian approach contradicts both the spirit and the letter of a new, lenient approach to marijuana possession announced earlier this summer by New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Police Commissioner James O’Neill.

New York state law draws a distinction between marijuana and THC oil. The NYPD is exploiting that loophole.

It also illustrates a glaring loophole that allows the NYPD to continue to “disproportionately and unnecessarily target and interact with only black and Latino people living in certain neighborhoods over something that should not even be criminalized,” said Hechinger.

“The THC oil loophole is just one of many loopholes in the policies, which draw exceptions to the no-arrest policy for those with certain criminal records or those on parole, which merely replicate the racial disparities that already exist,” Hechinger told Leafly on Monday.

And “it’s not just the prosecution,” he added. “It’s also NYPD, who is continuing to arrest people for suspected THC oil. Which makes little sense given that it’s actually a safer, cleaner, less intrusive manner of using marijuana.”

NYPD: No Comment

The NYPD’s public information office did not respond to messages seeking comment left Monday and Sunday. A phone message left at the Kings County District Attorney’s Office in Brooklyn was not returned. Leafly will update this story if we receive a response.

In June, following years of high arrest rates for nonviolent marijuana possession that disproportionately affected people of color, de Blasio announced that New Yorkers caught with small amounts of cannabis would receive a summons to court rather than be arrested.

Analysis: Will the NYPD Really Stop Frivolous Marijuana Arrests?

In response, Cyrus R. Vance, Jr., the Manhattan district attorney, and Eric Gonzalez, the Brooklyn district attorney, both announced that they would vacate past misdemeanor marijuana-possession convictions going back decades, and would decline to prosecute new cases.

Eric Gonzalez@BrooklynDA

Under my Office’s new initiative, individuals w/ a low-level conviction for #marijuana possession will have the opportunity to erase that criminal record completely. I will share additional details about our plan later this afternoon @LRBC_Online. #StayTuned #Justice2020

CBS New York✔@CBSNewYork

Brooklyn DA's Plan Could Dismiss 20,000 Marijuana Convictions https://cbsloc.al/2wSfkGm

6:56 AM - Sep 7, 2018

17See Eric Gonzalez's other Tweets

Twitter Ads info and privacy

Oil vs. Flower

New York state law draws a strong distinction between possession of marijuana flower and marijuana oil. Possession of less than a quarter-ounce of concentrates is a misdemeanor; possession of any more is a felony. De Blasio and the district attorneys of Manhattan and Brooklyn have pledged to stop arresting people for marijuana. But the NYPD and Brooklyn DA’s office apparently have carved out an exception for vape pens, considering them a separate category worthy of a Class A misdemeanor. According to New York state law: “Misdemeanors are grouped into one of three classes: Class A, Class B, or Unclassified. Upon conviction of a Class ‘A’ misdemeanor, a court may sentence an individual to a maximum of one year in jail or three years probation. In addition, a fine of up to $1,000 or twice the amount of the individual’s gain from the crime may be imposed.”

This arbitrary designation creates a legal loophole that allows police and prosecutors to continue to treat nonviolent cannabis possession cases like serious crimes, observers say.

Cannabis Is Cannabis

By nearly every metric, cannabis oil—cartridges of which are the most important part of the battery-and-tank combinations popularly known as “vape pens”—is the fastest-growing method for consuming cannabis. Celebrity comedian Whoopi Goldberg was so enamored of her vape pen she once wrote an ode to it.

And in a twist, New York State’s restrictive medical marijuana law means that non-flower products like vape pens are some of the most prevalent products available on the market.

The homepage of dispensary chain MedMen’s New York City location advertises five different vape-oil cartridge blends for sale—exactly the type of products that are seeing New Yorkers charged with drug possession, according to attorneys like Hechinger.

Pressure on Cuomo to Act

Meanwhile, marijuana legalization remains wildly popular in New York State, as it does throughout much of the rest of the country. But unlike much of the rest of the country—including everywhere recreational cannabis has been legalized, with one exception—New York lacks a popular referendum process. Only elected officials can bring issues onto the ballot.

Following pressure from pro-legalization challenger Cynthia Nixon, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the creation of “working groups” that would look at legalizing recreational cannabis. It is unclear how much pressure Cuomo will feel now, following his easy victory over Nixon in Thursday’s Democratic primary.

TO READ MORE OF THIS ARTICLE ON LEAFLY, CLICK HERE.

https://www.leafly.com/news/industry/californias-new-edibles-limits-will-ban-popular-products

0 notes

foodreceipe · 7 years ago

Photo

Meal Delivery Services Put Dinner on Your Doorstep

Blue Apron, Purple Carrot, and others are changing the way Americans make dinner. Consumer Reports put their easy, fresh, and tasty claims to the test.

By Janet Lee August 24, 2016

There you are, at the end of a long workday, standing in front of an open refrigerator that’s crammed with unappealing leftovers and some past-their-prime veggies, wondering “What in the world am I going to make for dinner?”

For a growing number of Americans, meal delivery services provide the answer. Every week, you pick several meals from an ever-changing list of offerings on a company’s website, and a few days later a box packed with chilled, premeasured ingredients and detailed cooking instructions arrives on your doorstep.

It’s a trend that began in 2012, then took off. These services are now a $400 million market that’s projected to increase tenfold in the next five years, according to Technomic, a research and consulting firm for the food industry. Today there are more than 100 meal delivery services in the U.S., and new ones are springing up all the time. Just recently, Martha Stewart and then Ayesha Curry (wife of the NBA star Stephen Curry) announced they were getting into the business. Even The New York Times offers one where you can get the ingredients for recipes on its cooking website.

What’s the appeal? “The convenience of these kits is attractive, but freshness is also very important,” says Darren Seifer, a food and beverage industry analyst at the NPD Group. “Some consumers, especially millennials, are willing to spend more time preparing food because they value freshness, but they still want to get out of the kitchen fairly quickly.”

So how do meal delivery services perform on the easy, healthy, and fresh fronts? Our food and nutrition experts, admittedly experienced cooks, ordered from five popular meal delivery services to try them. We also asked 57 meal kit users (some of whom describe themselves as beginners in the kitchen) to tell us about their experience.

Are They Healthy?

“A lot of the marketing for these kits focuses on ‘freshness,’ so there’s a perception that the meals are also healthy,” says Kimberly Gudzune, M.D., M.P.H., an obesity-medicine expert and assistant professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. The ingredients we got were indeed fresh, but not all of the services provided enough nutrition info for their meals. HelloFresh listed the most—calories, fat, saturated fat, carbohydrates, protein, fiber, sodium, and sugars—on their recipe cards. Others provided only calories. (See “Our At-a-Glance Guide,” below.) In determining how healthy the meals were, our experts looked at calories, fat, saturated fat, and sodium. If a company didn’t provide data for one of those nutrients, we calculated it using a nutritional database program.

Most of the meals included a generous amount of vegetables. For example, Green Chef’s recipes had 2 ½ to 4 ½ cups (before cooking) per serving. But that wasn’t a given: Blue Apron’s Pork Tteokbokki Asparagus with Spicy Black Bean Sauce had just five spears of asparagus for two people. Plant-food based Purple Carrot included only 4 ounces of raw spinach for its Spinach Risotto. Lesson learned: When ordering meals, choose those that supply a good amount of a variety of veggies.

Our biggest concern was the high sodium content of many of the meals. “That’s what I worry about,” Gudzune says, “especially for people who are 50 and older, who are at greater risk for heart disease, hypertension, and stroke.”

Almost every recipe we tested called for seasoning the ingredients with salt several times—as many as five times for one recipe. It’s no wonder, then, that we found that half of the dishes had more than 770 mg of sodium, or more than a third of the maximum recommended daily intake of 2,300 mg. Ten of the dishes had more than 1,000 mg per serving. We also found that using the salt shaker less didn’t make the meals any less tasty. So don’t add salt every time a recipe calls for it, or use just a dash or two.

Of course, how much you eat of each meal changes the nutrition profile, too. If you can squeeze a third portion out of a meal for two, you’ll certainly cut calories, fat, and sodium. We found that some of the meals were large enough to allow for that, and most of the kit users on our panel said they were satisfied with the amount on their plates. But there were a few men who thought the meals were on the skimpy side. “The portions are just right for me but a little light for my husband,” said a woman on our user panel.

Do They Taste Good?

Yes! Twenty-four of the 27 recipes we tested received an Excellent or a Very Good score for taste. What’s more, they may be a smart way to broaden your family’s palate.

“A meal delivery service is a great way to try new things,” says Amy Keating, R.D., who oversaw our testing. They offer several recipes with ingredients that may be unfamiliar to some people, such as Korean rice cakes, hemp herb dressing, udon noodles, and poblano peppers.

Some consumers, especially Gen Xers and baby boomers, are driven to use the kits to escape a cuisine comfort zone, according to Michael Joseph, founder and chief executive of Green Chef, one of two services with an Excellent Rating in our testing. “They’re going to the same restaurants and making the same meals at home,” he says. Practically every person on our user panel said they liked being able to explore different flavors.

What’s the Cost of Convenience?

Because budgeting is important to every family, we bought the ingredients for five meals—one from each service—at the supermarket and calculated the cost of the amount of each ingredient used for one portion of a recipe. For most of the dishes, the DIY per-portion cost was roughly half that of the meal kit price:

Blue Apron's Spring Chicken Fettuccini: $4.88 vs. $9.99

Green Chef's Greek Chicken Bowl: $10.94 vs. $13.49 (includes cost of shipping).

HelloFresh's Blackend Tilapia: $5.37 vs. $11.50

Plated's Vietnamese-Style 'Shaking Beef': $5.10 vs. $12.00

Purple Carrot's Chinese Broccoli and Tofu: $3.46 vs. $11.33

But if you have a cabinet full of spices you’ve used only once or you often throw away most of a bunch of parsley because a recipe calls for only ¼ cup, these kits may actually be a good financial deal because you aren’t buying more of an ingredient than you need. (Americans discard $165 billion in food annually.)

In fact, a member of our user panel claimed that the meal delivery service she subscribed to helped cut her grocery bill in half. And most of our panelists, whose annual income ranged from less than $25,000 to more than $150,000, considered meal delivery services to be a good value.

In some cases, that value was linked to other factors in addition to a dollar-to-dollar comparison. One woman noted, “It’s very pricey but worth it because I don’t have the time or the energy to plan meals out every week and grocery shop.” Another said, “I could get some of the ingredients for about $10, but the fact that I had never known about some of them made their discovery worth more.”

Perhaps the best news of all is that it’s pretty painless to check out one of these services. All of ones we tested had introductory offers. Terms change frequently, but as we went to press we found specials such as $20 off, six meals for the price of two, and even a free week of meals.

The services are flexible, too. Most allow you to suspend a subscription for a week or more, or cancel it for any reason, provided you do so by a deadline. That flexibility means you can order every other week, just one week per month, or on any other schedule that fits your lifestyle.

https://www.consumerreports.org/food/meal-delivery-services-put-dinner-on-your-doorstep/