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newstfionline · 7 years ago
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Six Ways to Save Money
Eric Barker, Barking Up The Wrong Tree, December 31st, 2017.
We’d all like to have more money. (That stuff is really useful, ain’t it?)
Being worried about makin’ the bacon can end your marriage, skyrocket your blood pressure, and even cause your brain to malfunction.
According to Dollars and Sense: How We Misthink Money and How to Spend Smarter, “Money is the top reason for divorce and the number one cause of stress in Americans. People are demonstrably worse at all kinds of problem solving when they have money problems on their mind.”
Thing is, we all make dumb money mistakes, many of which we’re not even aware of. And a lot of those are due to quirks of human psychology.
Luckily, Dan Ariely, a professor of behavioral economics at Duke University, has a new book out that explains some of the problems we’re prone to when it comes to moolah and what we can do about them. The book is Dollars and Sense: How We Misthink Money and How to Spend Smarter.
Let’s look at some of what Dan has to say and see how we can save some shekels...
1) “On Sale” Signs Are The Devil
More generally, Dan’s advice is “ignore relative comparisons.” Focus on what the thing costs, not how big a discount you’re getting.
Saving 90% on a bus pass isn’t a great deal if you never take the bus--but we make dumb purchases similar to that one all the time.
It seems that discounts are a potion for stupidity. They simply dumb down our decision-making process. When an item is “on sale,” we act more quickly and with even less thought than if the product costs the same but is marked at a regular price.
And we’re assaulted by these relative comparisons all the time...
You’d never have paid a few hundred dollars for heated seats--but when you’re shelling out tens of thousands of dollars for a car, that extra seems relatively cheap--and so you say, “Ah, what the heck... Sure.” You should judge add-ons separately by their value, not by comparison.
Similarly, paying percentages can be dangerous. 5% might seem small but, again, that can be deceptive. Change the percentage into a dollar amount and objectively ask: “Am I comfortable paying this figure for this service?”
2) It’s Not A “Bonus.” Money Is Money.
Your paycheck goes toward bills and serious stuff. But that unexpected check you received in the mail? That money you won at the casino? That gift card aunt Phyllis sent you? Well, it’s okay to spend that money on frivolous goodies because that’s “different.”
No, it’s not. Money is money.
Every dollar is the same. It doesn’t matter where money comes from… just because in our mind the money belongs to the “bonuses” or “winnings” account--we need to pause, think, and remind ourselves that it’s just money. Our money.
Researchers refer to this as “emotional accounting.” Rationally, a dollar is a dollar. But as rationality-challenged humans, we feel the source of the money affects how we should use it. Bad idea.
People are likely to spend something like their salary on “responsible” things like paying bills, because it feels like “serious money.” On the other hand, money that feels fun--like $300 million in casino winnings--is likely to be spent on fun things, like more gambling.
Studies show that when $200 is called a “rebate” we’re inclined to deposit it in the bank. But when that $200 is called a “bonus” we’re more likely to buy a treat.
Many people treat a tax refund as a “bonus” that they can have fun with. Again, that’s tricky emotional accounting. You didn’t get a bonus; you gave the government an interest-free loan and they’re returning the principal.
How do we actually spend less without having to use any willpower? That’s easy. Make spending painful...
3) Use Cash More Often
Handing someone cash hurts your brain. Seriously. Neuroscience research shows it’s indistinguishable from physical pain.
But we ever-resourceful humans have found a way (many ways, actually) to spend a lot and not feel that pain. The biggest culprit? Credit cards.
Studies have found not only that people are more willing to pay when they use credit cards, but also that they make larger purchases, leave larger tips, are more likely to underestimate or forget how much they spent, and make spending decisions more quickly.
Ever find yourself treating foreign currency like it’s Monopoly money? Ever abuse that Amazon one-click button? Anything that makes transactions simpler and quicker or blurs the process of handing over greenbacks reduces the pain of paying--and makes you more likely to spend.
Writing checks doesn’t cause the same amount of ouch that forking over cash does, but it’s still pretty good because having to write out “five thousand dollars” will give you pause. But credit cards, gift cards, casino chips and nearly all online shopping is a financial opiate and dramatically reduces the pain that keeps your bank account flush.
There is an exception worthy of mention here. The vast majority of the time, increasing the pain of paying is a great idea. But there are occasions where it’s worth it to be pain-free. You don’t want to be saying “owwwww” repeatedly on your honeymoon or during other big milestones. You want to just enjoy the moment.
So whip out the plastic and have fun. But make those occasions rare.
4) “Fair” Is A Four-Letter Word
It’s pouring outside so you’re going to get an Uber. But Uber is surge pricing. “That’s unfair! Forget it. I’ll walk.”
Maybe Uber is taking advantage of you. Maybe they’re not. But the real question is: would you pay the surge price to not arrive home soaking wet? Probably. So you’re not punishing them. You’re punishing yourself.
“Fair is a four-letter word.” That’s what my friend, Chris Voss, former lead international hostage negotiator for the FBI, likes to say. And Ariely’s research agrees.
The concept of “fair” messes with our heads and causes us to reject deals that still offer plenty of value.
Let’s not get caught up in whether something is priced fairly; instead, consider what it’s worth to us. We shouldn’t pass up great value--access to our home, a salvaged computer, getting a ride in winter weather--just to punish the provider for what we think is unfairness.
The concept of “fairness” runs very deep in the human psyche. Nobody likes to feel exploited. And nobody wants to be known as someone who can be exploited.
But most of the time it doesn’t pay to get hung up on the concept of “fair.” Think about whether you’re getting reasonable value for the money you’re paying. Otherwise the person who gets punished will probably be you.
5) Try A “Ulysses Contract”
In Homer’s “The Odyssey”, Ulysses tied himself to the mast of his ship to resist the Sirens’ song.
When you’re thinking about the future you’re pretty rational. But when you’re in the moment, face it: you can be an impulsive moron. So do something now that constrains your behavior later.
Metaphorically, tie yourself to the mast of your ship with a Ulysses Contract. (Or “Odyssesus Contract” if you prefer the Greek. Hey, I’m open-minded.)
A Ulysses contract is any arrangement by which we create barriers against future temptation. We give ourselves no choice; we eliminate free will.
You probably already use a financial Ulysses Contract and don’t even realize it--you call it a 401(k). You made the decision in advance to save for retirement and now your hands are tied.
So go into your online banking account and set up a recurring automatic transfer for every time you get a paycheck. When your salary gets deposited, X amount is immediately shuttled into savings. Research shows this will help you save--a lot.
A study by Nava Ashraf, Dean Karlan, and Wesley Yin found that one group of participants who had their bank accounts restricted--that is, they chose to have money automatically deposited in a savings account--increased their savings by 81 percent within a year.
And Ulysses Contracts aren’t just good for finances; they work for almost any future temptation. Hand your keys to a friend before you go drinking. Have a pal change your passwords on social media accounts when you absolutely need to focus.
6) Drop Anchor
“Anchoring” is a potentially devastating cognitive bias where the first number mentioned in a given scenario unconsciously influences your future choices.
Well-designed menus often have a very high-priced item at the top. It doesn’t make you more likely to buy the filet mignon but it does insidiously make everything else look like a bargain.
Few people pay the manufacturer suggested retail price for a car. But that number is always big and visible when you look at the specs. Whether you realize it or not, it’s affecting the offer you end up making.
So how do you resist an anchor? By having a different anchor in advance. Do your research and know what most people end up paying for that car and the MSRP will have less influence.
Look at your regular purchases and ask if they really make sense and whether there are cheaper alternatives. Personally, I have not updated my phone plan in two decades and am still paying $9 a minute for calls.
Okay, we’re no longer money morons. So when you have more money, then you won’t need to worry about these silly psychology quirks that affect your spending, right?
Wrong.
About 16 percent of NFL players file for bankruptcy within twelve years of retirement, despite average career earnings of about $3.2 million. Some studies say the number of NFL players “under financial stress” is much higher--as high as 78 percent--within a few years of retirement. Similarly, about 60 percent of NBA basketball players are in financial trouble within five years of leaving the game. There are similar stories about lottery winners losing it all. Despite their big paydays, about 70 percent of lottery winners go broke within three years.
The more you earn, the bigger your mistakes will be. So review the common problems your grey matter has with money and learn to make smarter choices. This way you can keep your millions.
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ieleoelei · 5 years ago
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And then we wonder WHY WE HIRE THE WRONG PEOPLE...
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Image: Gerd Altmann, Tumisu & MagicDesk from Pixabay
Businesses are all about people. Besides money, we all know that that one crucial aspect for the success of your business is… THE STAFF. Your business idea can be the goose that lays the golden eggs; you can have all the resources, a very positive market research result, a perfect financial and cash flow forecast, the most suitable and creative sales and marketing plans and strategies, and all the investors ready to put the money on the table, and anything else you can imagine but if you don’t have people to run it... forget it... it’s going to be a failure for sure; and not just people but...THE RIGHT people. Finding employees to cover a position is a good start, but finding those stars that seem to have been made for that specific job, can lead your project further beyond than what you ever imagined.
Sometimes we take recruiting for granted and forget that, in fact, it is a whole science. It’s actually not surprising that there is an entire academic field, and a whole industry behind it. (Very profitable by the way!). So the question here is: why the heck after so many decades of recruiting experience we still select the wrong people? Why even after having spent thousands in headhunting services Mary quits after three months. And why after a ten-steps process including interviews, polygraph, psycho-technical tests, case study solving tests, and even blood and urine sample analysis, we still have to fire John after we all happily signed the working contract and celebrated with a champagne bottle!
I discussed this issue once with the General Manager of a pretty big company that provides medical and pharmaceutical goods to entities in the health industry, and he told something like: “well… we cannot forget that the business of all these headhunters is just finding someone, not finding the perfect, star match. Once they have found a person for you that could possibly do the job they charge you for their service and they’re done and gone. But they rarely commit to find a perfectly matching candidate; this would be actually not profitable for them. They just want to find somebody quickly, and get their part of the business. So… they are to blame!
However, that is not the main cause of the issue. In fact, part of the answer has always been right under our nose! It might sound stupid but, haven’t you ever stopped to think that, in general, HIRING PROCESSES ARE A BIG THEATRE STAGE WHERE EVERYBODY LIES?! And we actually seem to be pretty good actors but in the end, very deeply, we know very well that we are all playing a not-so-funny game. To start with, we have our outstanding candidates who all seem to inflate their resumes by making “objects in the mirror be bigger than they appear” by actually including false information, especially in those gap periods where “you should NEVER show that you went through unemployment months”. I remember once attending a recruiting talk at my university given by HAYS, one of the biggest worldwide known recruiting firms, where the speaker, a senior recruiter, shared how he randomly started once asking to interviewees what percentage of theirs CVs was invented or false... AND A LOT OF APPLICANTS CAME UP WITH PERCENTAGES! He was shocked, just as we all were in the audience. Now, after having submitted the CV, during the interview we all describe how we are the best: of course we have done that thing we are asked if we’ve done, we have experience in the field, this has been our dream job since we were kids, we are fans of the company we’re applying to, our biggest weakness is being perfectionists and the worst mistake he have committed is that we should have been more ambitious that time when we set the sales increase rate at 50%. In the end, we are just perfect! Of course, right?!
HIRING PROCESSES ARE A BIG THEATRE STAGE WHERE EVERYBODY LIES!
On the other hand we have our heavenly organizations, where jobs couldn’t be more interesting and exciting, that offer us incredible working conditions: a great atmosphere, promising careers, additional benefits, off course not extra hours and never in a million years extra workload, all of that for a very competitive salary, in a company committed with its customers and whose input to the world is important. And of course, the job description is totally clear. I mean... come on!!! AND THEN WE WONDER WHY WE CHOOSE THE WRONG PLACES TO WORK!
So why does this happen? Easy: if we all said the truth people might never choose our places to work and our HR departments would never choose them to work for us; just like if a presidential candidate said the truth... well, no one would vote for him, right? So we all prefer to invisibly agree to go for a common delirium. Crazy, huh? Mentioning our “dark sides” is a big taboo but it is also the most important thing to know!!! If there’s something sure is that we will work in imperfect environments with imperfect staffs, and that include all of us. So, why not approaching that with less fear? At least we would be consciously choosing the imperfect. What if we just said the truth? How many years will have to pass until we have mature, honest and transparent recruiting encounters? Daring to say the truth and face the reality could help us both find a better person for the company and a better workplace for the candidate, and avoid the costly, wasteful, regretful, long and painful experience of having decided for “the wrong one”.
Mentioning our “dark sides” is a big taboo but it is also the most important thing to know!!!
Read more…
YES… OF COURSE I, MYSELF, HAVE LIED IN INTERVIEWS
I might have lied more, but I especially remember this one time; I went to an interview at the French well known cosmetic company Pierre Fabre, in Castres (if I remember well). And here’s the one and only lie on my CV: very hidden, at the bottom of the resume on the “Other Interests” section I had written that I was proficient in Adobe Photoshop (haha!). Well, guess what, the senior manager that interviewed me said that he was glad I was good using Photoshop since it was going to be very useful for the position (it was a communication role). You can imagine what I was feeling when I was listening to those word! The funny thing is that … a couple days after, I received a call saying that I had been chosen for the job!!!! Shame on me.
AND YES… THEY HAVE LIED ME TONS IN INTERVIEWS
Hasn’t it happened to you that your boss asks you to do tasks that where never mentioned as part of your responsibilities but that are his/hers? Typical, right? I my case I ended up doing the most boring duties ever, including gathering all his yearly business trips receipts and preparing the tedious formalities for their reimbursement, among many other off-position tasks. And this was at a very prestigious multinational company. Dumb of me to not have complained!
Now “Lie” might be a strong and wrong word, because in some other cases it is not always about lies. Sometimes it’s just that the position is not even clear for the company, and sometimes they just happen to have a blabber mouth. In other of my positions I was clearly told that I would have a top management position with full decision power an autonomy (I could not move a finger without asking my boss, not to mention the budget management ban which affected the core of my position), where I would have to design a project (everything was already designed, I just had to deploy what was settled), that 70% of the position would be strategy and 30% operative (it was actually 10% strategy 90% operative), that I was going to get a monthly bonus based on performance (only happened half of the times), that I was going to have a discount on my health insurance and benefits for my family members (never happened), that I was NOT going to work “that many” extra hours (it was a daily thing… no kidding), that weekends I was going to be off (hahahaha!). OHHHH!... and they forgot to tell me that I HAD to work on bank holidays. Except for Christmas or New Year where I had the lucky chance to choose one to be off. Yay! (Yeah… this is called crossing the line… no wonder why I quit).
YES… I HAVE HEARD CONFESSIONS OF HOW PEOPLE HAVE LIED IN INTERVIEWS
Here are some:
“They only part where I lied was where they asked me if I already had experience in that. I said yeah, and actually came up with an example.”
“I had the job description, so I researched about the methodology expertise they were looking for, and read about it during three entire days, and… during the interview I just invented an experience where I used that methodology as part of one of the roles that appeared in my CV. J!
BIG SCANDALS ABOUT LIES IN RESUMES
The previous Mayor of Bogota, Enrique Peñalosa (whom I do not hate… I’m just bringing this example as it is accurate) was discovered to have lied in his CV, having added among his education titles a Master’s Degree and a Ph.D that he never did!!! (I know…. I was also like “Really??!!!!”).
Talking about Colombian politicians, it is common for some (including our current President!!!!!!!!!!!) to say they are Harvard Alumni, which is not entirely false… it’s just that they have taken a one-week course or even a couple-days seminar…
TRENDY: INTERVIEW LIES IN OSCAR-WINNING MOVIE!
The topic appears in the double-oscar-winning movie that made history in February 2020! The first non-English-language film that ever gets the Best Movie award!!!
The movie starts with a lie in an interview and... Nobody would ever imagine what lying in an interview could lead to!!!! Watch it! You'll be shocked! Congrats to the winning team!
#BreakingTaboos #NoMoreLying #Hiring #HiringChallenges #HiringSuccess #HiringAdvice #HiringAdvices #HiringStrategy #Recruiting #RecruitingChallenges #Parasite #Oscars2020 #SouthKorea #BongJoonHo
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opixpk-blog · 6 years ago
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Clickbank Pirate | Pillage & Plunder Clickbank For Autopilot Income
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jamesgeiiger · 6 years ago
Text
Ten stocks for 2019: What the pros are picking to outperform in the year ahead
The bull market ran into a brick wall in 2018, but that doesn’t mean investors should abandon equities just yet. With a new year dawning, the Financial Post asked 10 prominent portfolio managers and strategists to pick a single stock they feel has a good chance to outperform in 2019.
Jeff Olin — Vision Capital Corp.
The Stock: Pure Multi-Family REIT (TSV/RUF-U)
It’s defensive, it’s in high-growth U.S. markets, and most important, it’s “very, very cheap.” Those are the factors that make Pure Multi-Family REIT a buy for Jeff Olin, president and portfolio manager at Vision Capital Corp., in 2019. Pure trades on the TSX Venture Exchange but exclusively owns class A apartments in U.S. sunbelt markets such as Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Austin. Those four are among North America’s top cities for employment growth, he said, which is important in real estate investing because more jobs often means more housing is required. “Everybody needs a place to live,” said Olin, adding that REITs in general can be a balm for volatility in global markets. What makes the Pure Multi-Family REIT special, Olin said, is that unlike other apartment REITs on the market, it isn’t trading at a premium to its net asset value. “This one you can buy at a discount,” he said. Shares of Pure closed Friday at $8.21.
It could be worse: An optimist's guide to investing in 2019
Outlook 2019: Here's where the experts think the TSX will end up one year from now
The bad news is nobody made money in 2018; the good news, markets are expecting the worst
Norman Levine — Portfolio Management Corp.
The Stock: NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ/NXPI)
Shares of NXP Semiconductors NV were victims of a failed takeover bid from Qualcomm Inc. in 2018, and have fallen 26 per cent since the deal was vetoed by the Chinese government in July. That fall in value has drawn the interest of Norman Levine, managing director of Portfolio Management Corp. “We think it’s greatly undervalued because of the people who bought it just for the takeover and said, ‘Get me out’,” Levine said. NXP, he said, remains a takeover candidate in 2019 because, “if this was attractive to Qualcomm, it’s probably attractive to someone else.” Being a takeover candidate alone, however, wouldn’t be enough to convince Levine, a value investor, to jump on board. What really drew his attention is that NXP has remained relatively cheap while seeing its earnings grow and setting itself up to benefit from a growing automotive electronics market. Shares of the Dutch semiconductor producer closed Friday at US$72.13, well below the US$127.50 Qualcomm was willing to pay.
Brian Belski — BMO Capital Markets
The Stock: Bank of America Corp. (NYSE/BAC)
Investors are positioning for a recession and an inverted yield curve, according to Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, and, he said, neither one is going to happen. Belski is bullish on 2019 and as a result is investing in Bank of America Corp. There’s a “generational opportunity” to invest in the banking sector, which investors often turn to when interest rates are rising but are risky when markets are slowing down. Bank of America hit its 52-week low — US$22.66 — on Dec. 24, a 31 per cent drop from a high of US$33.05 earlier in the year. “U.S. banks are uniformly hated, feared around the marketplace,” said Belski, but he’s not adding to the pile-on because “you have to buy when there’s blood in the streets … if you have fundamentals to back it up.” For Bank of America, those fundamentals, he said, are consistent cash flow, earnings and dividend growth. The stock closed at US$24.51 on Friday.
An Apple store in Hong Kong.
Greg Placidi — Equiton Inc.
The Stock: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/APPL)
Investors who own Apple Inc. are going to benefit from two bumps to the stock in 2019, Greg Placidi, chief investment officer of Equiton Inc., predicts: One in the first half of the year, when he expects a conclusion to the U.S.-China trade war; and another in the second half, when the analyst community re-learns how to track the company. Apple has lost more than US$250 billion in market cap since the beginning of November — with shares plunging more than 29 per cent to close Friday at US$156.23 — as analysts responded to its decision to no longer disclose iPhone sales numbers by lowering target prices across the board. In Placidi’s view, analyst comfort levels changed because they no longer had the same tools at their disposal, and will have to learn to draw their conclusions in another way. Headlines suggesting Apple may have to move iPhone production out of China because of heavy tariffs are only adding to the sour sentiment, he said. None of that deters his belief that a rally is on the way. “There’s nobody really sitting next to them that’s going to be able to unseat them,” he said.
Joel Clark — KJ Investments
The Stock: Enbridge Inc. (TSX/ENB)
Joel Clark, CEO and portfolio manager of KJ Investments, says the economy is weakening, and with interest rates rolling over, too, he’s playing defence. Enbridge Inc. is a good choice for investors who want to transition their portfolios toward a defensive mindset, he said, because it’s a utility stock, which are known for outperforming most other sectors when markets slow. Enbridge also has a near seven per cent dividend yield, having announced in December that it would be boosting it to $2.95 per share annually. Closing at $42.16 on Friday, the stock is down about 16 per cent year-to-date — but that only means it’s now a value stock with further room to grow next year, Clark said. That growth may get an additional boost in the second half of the year if the company’s Line 3 pipeline replacement is completed as expected, something that can never hurt in pipeline-starved Canada.
David MacNicol — MacNicol & Associates
The Stock: Aurania Resources (TSXV/ARU)
“It’s either going to be a hit or wash out.” That’s how David MacNicol, president and portfolio manager of MacNicol & Associates, assesses the prospects of Aurania Resources, a junior mining company based in Ecuador. MacNicol is leaning toward the former because, with the market taking a defensive stance, he’s betting that investors will once again return to gold as a safe haven. Aurania has been narrowing down more than 200,000 hectares of unexplored land in Ecuador in search of the lost cities of Logrono de los Caballeros and Sevilla del Oro, two legendary cities known for their gold deposits. MacNicol admits the stock, which has been nearly flat year-to-date and closed Friday at $2.80, is “highly speculative” but could see its value double if the lost cities project is successful in 2019.
Michael White — Picton Mahoney Asset Management
The Stock: Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSX/ATD.B)
For the past couple of years, Picton Mahoney Asset Management portfolio manager Michael White has been telling investors to steer clear of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. Now, he can’t recommend investing in the convenience store chain fast enough. The company had seen its organic growth decelerate for multiple quarters in a row despite an aggressive M&A strategy. White’s concerns dissipated this year. While the company’s stock underperformed between March and July, trading between $52 and $55, it took off in late October and is now trading above $67.85. “Positive change often begets positive share price momentum,” White said. That inflection came with a “sharp reversal” in same-stores sales and organic sales growth on the heels of the acquisitions and successful integrations of CST Brands and Holiday. Convenience stores also function as a defensive choice for investors when markets are struggling, White said.
Amar Pandya — PenderFund Capital Management
The Stock: Maxar Technologies Ltd. (TSX/MAXR)
Maxar Technologies Ltd. “was a star company” on Bay Street, Penderfund Capital Management associate portfolio manager Amar Pandya said — and then it was targeted by short sellers in 2018. Spruce Point Capital Management accused the space-tech company of “overcapitalizing costs by inflating intangible asset purchases.” To make matters worse, the company reported an earnings miss for the third quarter, which immediately resulted in its stock cratering. Since the beginning of the year, Maxar’s stock has lost about 80 per cent of its value and closed Friday at $16.07. The stock’s performance has chased away investors — and that’s why Pandya thinks it’s attractive. Good news may be on the way in 2019 as the company is becoming U.S.-domiciled, which opens up opportunities to bid on larger U.S. defence contracts. Pandya said he also believes that Maxar will either wind down or sell its struggling GEO satellite production business, which management blamed for the earnings miss. “It’s the perfect setup, right?” Pandya said.
Dollarama would be more profitable if it hiked product prices to $5, says Izet Elmazi of Bristol Gate Capital Partners.
Izet Elmazi — Bristol Gate Capital Partners
The Stock: Dollarama Inc. (TSX/DOL)
Dollarama Inc. is close to reaching its floor after being targeted by short sellers, Bristol Gate Capital Partners senior portfolio manager Izet Elmazi said, and it’s offering investors an opportunity to buy low. On Oct. 31, Spruce Point Capital Management predicted Dollarama’s stock would drop 40 per cent because customers would push back over recent price hikes and the chain would not be able to keep the same level of profitability. The stock has since dropped about 13 per cent and closed Friday at $31.67. Elmazi expects Dollarama to introduce $5 price points as similar chains in the U.S. — Family Dollar and Dollar General — have done, but instead of suffering, he thinks it will improve their gross profit. Instead of making 40 per cent of a $1 item, a $5 price point would see them earn $2 for every sale. Same-store traffic, which declined in the last two quarters of 2018, concerns Elmazi. The fact that sales are up, however, may instead point to a trend of customers making fewer trips but leaving with fuller baskets. Growing sales would naturally lead to more stores opening — 60 per year over the next five years, Elmazi hopes — which has led him to believe the stock has a 60 per cent upside.
Talbot Babineau — IBV Capital
The Stock: Trinity Industries Inc. (NYSE/TRN)
Trinity Industries Inc. is flying below the radar for most investors, IBV Capital president and CEO Talbot Babineau said, and that’s partly why the company is so interesting to him. The mid-cap firm is the largest purchaser of rolled steel in North America, Babineau said, and uses it to manufacture 40 per cent of the continent’s rail cars. In November, the company split into two and the branch of Trinity that was focused on producing other infrastructure products became Arcosa, Inc. The split savaged Trinity’s stock, resulting in more than a 27 per cent drop from its 52-week high in October to its Friday close at US$20.43. Babineau thinks the company is poised to recover from its stock drop in 2019 and that rise may begin with its plan to raise US$360 million in debt to conduct an accelerated share repurchase program. Trinity may also benefit from the government of Alberta’s plans to spend $350 million on 7,000 tank cars, Babineau said. Investors may also be drawn to the company for defensive purposes: Trinity’s rail-car leasing program “acts like one big bond portfolio,” said Babineau, who added IBV Capital’s portfolio switched to defence more than a year and a half ago.
Ten stocks for 2019: What the pros are picking to outperform in the year ahead published first on https://worldwideinvestforum.tumblr.com/
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mikemortgage · 6 years ago
Text
Ten stocks for 2019: What the pros are picking to outperform in the year ahead
The bull market ran into a brick wall in 2018, but that doesn’t mean investors should abandon equities just yet. With a new year dawning, the Financial Post asked 10 prominent portfolio managers and strategists to pick a single stock they feel has a good chance to outperform in 2019.
Jeff Olin — Vision Capital Corp.
The Stock: Pure Multi-Family REIT (TSV/RUF-U)
It’s defensive, it’s in high-growth U.S. markets, and most important, it’s “very, very cheap.” Those are the factors that make Pure Multi-Family REIT a buy for Jeff Olin, president and portfolio manager at Vision Capital Corp., in 2019. Pure trades on the TSX Venture Exchange but exclusively owns class A apartments in U.S. sunbelt markets such as Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Austin. Those four are among North America’s top cities for employment growth, he said, which is important in real estate investing because more jobs often means more housing is required. “Everybody needs a place to live,” said Olin, adding that REITs in general can be a balm for volatility in global markets. What makes the Pure Multi-Family REIT special, Olin said, is that unlike other apartment REITs on the market, it isn’t trading at a premium to its net asset value. “This one you can buy at a discount,” he said. Shares of Pure closed Friday at $8.21.
It could be worse: An optimist's guide to investing in 2019
Outlook 2019: Here's where the experts think the TSX will end up one year from now
The bad news is nobody made money in 2018; the good news, markets are expecting the worst
Norman Levine — Portfolio Management Corp.
The Stock: NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ/NXPI)
Shares of NXP Semiconductors NV were victims of a failed takeover bid from Qualcomm Inc. in 2018, and have fallen 26 per cent since the deal was vetoed by the Chinese government in July. That fall in value has drawn the interest of Norman Levine, managing director of Portfolio Management Corp. “We think it’s greatly undervalued because of the people who bought it just for the takeover and said, ‘Get me out’,” Levine said. NXP, he said, remains a takeover candidate in 2019 because, “if this was attractive to Qualcomm, it’s probably attractive to someone else.” Being a takeover candidate alone, however, wouldn’t be enough to convince Levine, a value investor, to jump on board. What really drew his attention is that NXP has remained relatively cheap while seeing its earnings grow and setting itself up to benefit from a growing automotive electronics market. Shares of the Dutch semiconductor producer closed Friday at US$72.13, well below the US$127.50 Qualcomm was willing to pay.
Brian Belski — BMO Capital Markets
The Stock: Bank of America Corp. (NYSE/BAC)
Investors are positioning for a recession and an inverted yield curve, according to Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, and, he said, neither one is going to happen. Belski is bullish on 2019 and as a result is investing in Bank of America Corp. There’s a “generational opportunity” to invest in the banking sector, which investors often turn to when interest rates are rising but are risky when markets are slowing down. Bank of America hit its 52-week low — US$22.66 — on Dec. 24, a 31 per cent drop from a high of US$33.05 earlier in the year. “U.S. banks are uniformly hated, feared around the marketplace,” said Belski, but he’s not adding to the pile-on because “you have to buy when there’s blood in the streets … if you have fundamentals to back it up.” For Bank of America, those fundamentals, he said, are consistent cash flow, earnings and dividend growth. The stock closed at US$24.51 on Friday.
An Apple store in Hong Kong.
Greg Placidi — Equiton Inc.
The Stock: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/APPL)
Investors who own Apple Inc. are going to benefit from two bumps to the stock in 2019, Greg Placidi, chief investment officer of Equiton Inc., predicts: One in the first half of the year, when he expects a conclusion to the U.S.-China trade war; and another in the second half, when the analyst community re-learns how to track the company. Apple has lost more than US$250 billion in market cap since the beginning of November — with shares plunging more than 29 per cent to close Friday at US$156.23 — as analysts responded to its decision to no longer disclose iPhone sales numbers by lowering target prices across the board. In Placidi’s view, analyst comfort levels changed because they no longer had the same tools at their disposal, and will have to learn to draw their conclusions in another way. Headlines suggesting Apple may have to move iPhone production out of China because of heavy tariffs are only adding to the sour sentiment, he said. None of that deters his belief that a rally is on the way. “There’s nobody really sitting next to them that’s going to be able to unseat them,” he said.
Joel Clark — KJ Investments
The Stock: Enbridge Inc. (TSX/ENB)
Joel Clark, CEO and portfolio manager of KJ Investments, says the economy is weakening, and with interest rates rolling over, too, he’s playing defence. Enbridge Inc. is a good choice for investors who want to transition their portfolios toward a defensive mindset, he said, because it’s a utility stock, which are known for outperforming most other sectors when markets slow. Enbridge also has a near seven per cent dividend yield, having announced in December that it would be boosting it to $2.95 per share annually. Closing at $42.16 on Friday, the stock is down about 16 per cent year-to-date — but that only means it’s now a value stock with further room to grow next year, Clark said. That growth may get an additional boost in the second half of the year if the company’s Line 3 pipeline replacement is completed as expected, something that can never hurt in pipeline-starved Canada.
David MacNicol — MacNicol & Associates
The Stock: Aurania Resources (TSXV/ARU)
“It’s either going to be a hit or wash out.” That’s how David MacNicol, president and portfolio manager of MacNicol & Associates, assesses the prospects of Aurania Resources, a junior mining company based in Ecuador. MacNicol is leaning toward the former because, with the market taking a defensive stance, he’s betting that investors will once again return to gold as a safe haven. Aurania has been narrowing down more than 200,000 hectares of unexplored land in Ecuador in search of the lost cities of Logrono de los Caballeros and Sevilla del Oro, two legendary cities known for their gold deposits. MacNicol admits the stock, which has been nearly flat year-to-date and closed Friday at $2.80, is “highly speculative” but could see its value double if the lost cities project is successful in 2019.
Michael White — Picton Mahoney Asset Management
The Stock: Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSX/ATD.B)
For the past couple of years, Picton Mahoney Asset Management portfolio manager Michael White has been telling investors to steer clear of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. Now, he can’t recommend investing in the convenience store chain fast enough. The company had seen its organic growth decelerate for multiple quarters in a row despite an aggressive M&A strategy. White’s concerns dissipated this year. While the company’s stock underperformed between March and July, trading between $52 and $55, it took off in late October and is now trading above $67.85. “Positive change often begets positive share price momentum,” White said. That inflection came with a “sharp reversal” in same-stores sales and organic sales growth on the heels of the acquisitions and successful integrations of CST Brands and Holiday. Convenience stores also function as a defensive choice for investors when markets are struggling, White said.
Amar Pandya — PenderFund Capital Management
The Stock: Maxar Technologies Ltd. (TSX/MAXR)
Maxar Technologies Ltd. “was a star company” on Bay Street, Penderfund Capital Management associate portfolio manager Amar Pandya said — and then it was targeted by short sellers in 2018. Spruce Point Capital Management accused the space-tech company of “overcapitalizing costs by inflating intangible asset purchases.” To make matters worse, the company reported an earnings miss for the third quarter, which immediately resulted in its stock cratering. Since the beginning of the year, Maxar’s stock has lost about 80 per cent of its value and closed Friday at $16.07. The stock’s performance has chased away investors — and that’s why Pandya thinks it’s attractive. Good news may be on the way in 2019 as the company is becoming U.S.-domiciled, which opens up opportunities to bid on larger U.S. defence contracts. Pandya said he also believes that Maxar will either wind down or sell its struggling GEO satellite production business, which management blamed for the earnings miss. “It’s the perfect setup, right?” Pandya said.
Dollarama would be more profitable if it hiked product prices to $5, says Izet Elmazi of Bristol Gate Capital Partners.
Izet Elmazi — Bristol Gate Capital Partners
The Stock: Dollarama Inc. (TSX/DOL)
Dollarama Inc. is close to reaching its floor after being targeted by short sellers, Bristol Gate Capital Partners senior portfolio manager Izet Elmazi said, and it’s offering investors an opportunity to buy low. On Oct. 31, Spruce Point Capital Management predicted Dollarama’s stock would drop 40 per cent because customers would push back over recent price hikes and the chain would not be able to keep the same level of profitability. The stock has since dropped about 13 per cent and closed Friday at $31.67. Elmazi expects Dollarama to introduce $5 price points as similar chains in the U.S. — Family Dollar and Dollar General — have done, but instead of suffering, he thinks it will improve their gross profit. Instead of making 40 per cent of a $1 item, a $5 price point would see them earn $2 for every sale. Same-store traffic, which declined in the last two quarters of 2018, concerns Elmazi. The fact that sales are up, however, may instead point to a trend of customers making fewer trips but leaving with fuller baskets. Growing sales would naturally lead to more stores opening — 60 per year over the next five years, Elmazi hopes — which has led him to believe the stock has a 60 per cent upside.
Talbot Babineau — IBV Capital
The Stock: Trinity Industries Inc. (NYSE/TRN)
Trinity Industries Inc. is flying below the radar for most investors, IBV Capital president and CEO Talbot Babineau said, and that’s partly why the company is so interesting to him. The mid-cap firm is the largest purchaser of rolled steel in North America, Babineau said, and uses it to manufacture 40 per cent of the continent’s rail cars. In November, the company split into two and the branch of Trinity that was focused on producing other infrastructure products became Arcosa, Inc. The split savaged Trinity’s stock, resulting in more than a 27 per cent drop from its 52-week high in October to its Friday close at US$20.43. Babineau thinks the company is poised to recover from its stock drop in 2019 and that rise may begin with its plan to raise US$360 million in debt to conduct an accelerated share repurchase program. Trinity may also benefit from the government of Alberta’s plans to spend $350 million on 7,000 tank cars, Babineau said. Investors may also be drawn to the company for defensive purposes: Trinity’s rail-car leasing program “acts like one big bond portfolio,” said Babineau, who added IBV Capital’s portfolio switched to defence more than a year and a half ago.
from Financial Post http://bit.ly/2ThSZL2 via IFTTT Blogger Mortgage Tumblr Mortgage Evernote Mortgage Wordpress Mortgage href="https://www.diigo.com/user/gelsi11">Diigo Mortgage
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