#nikolai has dodged death a fair few times all by himself

[lassieposting]

So a few days ago in the darkolai discord someone mentioned a headcanon of Aleksander thwarting assassination attempts on Nikolai, which I *love* and have a lot of feelings about in general

But it's also just occurred to me

While Pyotr and Vasily live, there's...not really much point in offing Niko? In the case of Ravka's political rivals, there are a lot of arguments for *keeping Nikolai alive*.

Pyotr is useless, but he's an established, long-serving king and the behind-the-scenes power structure is secure with him on the throne. The identities of his primary allies, the ones actually running and defending Ravka, are common knowledge.

If Pyotr is removed, and Vasily takes the throne, there will be a brief period of unrest. But Vasily has been groomed all his life for rulership. He's probably well acquainted with his father's advisors - enough so that they'll either step in to guide him if he's promising, or go over his head and behind his back to keep the status quo running if he's like his father. Either way, a brief window of opportunity, but ultimately not a huge deal.

But if both the reigning king and the heir were killed, that utterly destabilises the country. Niko is young, inexperienced, allegedly a bastard, would presumably be grief-stricken, and has supposedly spent a decent chunk of his adult life abroad in Kerch. It would be safe to assume that while he's been at war or studying, out of sight and out of mind, he's missed out on the opportunity to curry favour with the real powers in Ravka and gain wealthy, influential friends at court. He'd have to fight for support, for recognition, for his right to the throne. If he rubs one of Pyotr's advisors with real sway up the wrong way and they refuse to support him - if someone like the Darkling stands up and says he's not fit to rule, Ravka ends up in complete disarray, possibly a civil war, and ripe for the taking - with or without Niko as a puppet king.

So. The two people with the most to gain from icing Nikolai?

Pyotr and Vasily

Pyotr knows or suspects that Niko isn't his, but he took him in and raised him as his own anyway. He didn't have to do that. He could easily have denied Niko and sent Tatiana off to a nunnery in disgrace, then sired a spare on a second wife or a mistress if he wanted. So perhaps he's less likely to go to the trouble of an attempt on Nikolai's life? Especially this late in the game - offing him as a helpless child would've been far more prudent.

But. Vasily - at least in the show - is never anything less than openly cruel to Niko. He can't stand him, to the point that he brings up Niko's dubious paternity, amidst other insults, in his speech at Niko's engagement dinner, after trying to poach his fiancée. Vasily doesn't trust his brother as far as he can throw him, doesn't agree with his ideas for Ravka, and knows damn well Nikolai is a threat - charming, better educated, served as active duty military, beloved by the common folk. He, more than anyone else, stands to benefit from Niko's mysterious death - apparently in the books he even tried to poison Niko once already. With Niko gone, there's no one - at least, no other bastard half-brothers with the resources and the connections - to threaten his claim to the throne.

And strategy is Aleksander's job. He'd know that.

Just. Aleksander quietly taking steps to safeguard the one Lantsov who might actually deserve the throne against assassins sent by Nikolai's own brother.

Aleksander pulling some strings to get the prince's indolent palace guards, chosen by Pyotr, replaced by a couple of top-notch oprichniki - on Aleksander's personal payroll - in royal guard uniforms.

Aleksander using the spy network he's built up over his century-and-change as General Kirigan, juggling agents to try to balance keeping ahead of any plots against Nikolai and staying informed about the Fjerdan and Shu strategies at the front.

Aleksander murmuring stay with me tonight after they've spent an evening together, and letting Niko fall asleep in his arms, so that when the assassin slips into Nikolai's room in the dead of night, all they'll find is Ivan and Fedyor lying in wait for them.

Aleksander having to decide whether or not to warn Nikolai that he suspects Vasily is the assassin's employer.

Aleksander weighing up the longterm implications of his choices - depending how much of his own influence he wants to lend to keeping the second prince alive, he could be seen to be throwing his support behind a coup, making an enemy of the current and future kings, and risking everything he's built in the process.

Aleksander gritting his teeth and doing it anyway, because he's lost everyone he's ever cared for and he's not losing Nikolai too, not yet, not like that.