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Dolar AS Sempat Jinak, Eh Ngamuk Lagi

Liputanviral - Nilai dolar AS terhadap rupiah sempat menjinak tanpa tekanan beberapa minggu terakhir. Namun kemarin, dolar AS kembali menguat berada di posisi Rp 14.900an. Pada perdagangan pagi nilai dolar AS dibuka pada posisi Rp 14.890. Kemudian terus menguat pada perdaganan siang yang mendekati angka Rp 15.000. Awal pekan rupiah memang masuk ke dalam tiga negara Asia yang mengalami pelemahan cukup besar setelah Rupe (India) dan Peso (Filipina). Adanya antisipasi atas potensi kenaikan suku bunga The Fed yang diperkirakan terjadi pekan ini turut memjadi salah satu sentimen. Di IHSG, pelaku pasar asing membukukan aksi beli bersih (Netbuy) sebesar Rp 587 miliar.

Dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) siang ini mengamuk lagi ke Rp 14.900. Sempat menyentuh level tertinggi di Rp 14.910, dolar AS juga sempat sentuh level terendah ke Rp 14.830. Meski demikian, dolar AS masih terpantau tinggi dengan pergerakan rata-rata siang ini menurut data perdagangan Reuters, Selasa (25/9/2018), berada di rentang Rp 14.900. Bila ditarik dalam rentang waktu 3 bulan terakhir, rupiah sudah terdepresiasi sedalam 7%, di mana pada tanggal 19 Juni 2018, dolar AS masih berada di Rp 13.930. Tahun ini, dolar AS sempat menyentuh rekor di Rp 14.999, hanya selisih sedikit dari posisi psikologis Rp 14.500.

Research Analyst FXTM Lukman Otunuga menjelaskan ada beberapa hal yang menyebabkan nilai rupiah tertekan dari dolar AS. Menurut dia, saat ini investor memilih untuk waspada di awal pekan perdagangan ini setelah China membatalkan rencana negosiasi dagang dengan pemerintah AS pada akhir pekan lalu. "Statement Presiden AS Donald Trump soal tarif US$ 200 miliar barang China membuat kondisi makin memburuk. China diperkirakan akan membalas dengan US$ 60 miliar barang AS," kata Lukman dalam keterangannya, Selasa (25/9/2018). Dia mengungkapkan, walaupun sentimen pasar tetap sangat dipengaruhi oleh perkembangan situasi dagang global, fokus cukup besar juga akan tertuju pada rapat The Fed pekan ini. Suku bunga AS diprediksi akan ditingkatkan di bulan September dan mungkin ditingkatkan kembali untuk keempat kalinya di bulan Desember. Kenaikan suku bunga mendatang ini sudah sangat diperhitungkan dalam harga saat ini, namun masih dapat memicu arus keluar modal dari pasar berkembang, termasuk Indonesia. Lukman menjelaskan, Bank Indonesia pekan diperkirakan akan meningkatkan suku bunga untuk kelima kalinya sejak pertengahan bulan Mei. "Kenaikan suku bunga mungkin dapat membantu rupiah, namun penurunan berulang kali dalam beberapa pekan terakhir memastikan bahwa rupiah tetap tertekan oleh berbagai faktor eksternal," ujar dia. Selanjutnya Ketegangan dagang AS-China memicu ketidakpastian dan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga The Fed mendukung Dolar AS sehingga rupiah tetap rentan mengalami kejutan negatif. Mengutip Reuters pukul 13.00 WIB dolar AS tercatat Rp 14.905. Berdasarkan data Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) dolar AS tercatat Rp 14.893.

Ketua Dewan Komisioner Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan (LPS) Halim Alamsyah menjelaskan saat ini otoritas keuangan dan moneter berupaya untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS. "Saat ini kita sudah ada di keseimbangan baru, ya tidak memungkinkan kita bisa kembali ke penguatan ke posisi Rp 10.000, saat itu kondisi likuiditas dunianya bebreda, kebutuhan untuk valuta asing (valas) berbeda," kata Halim di sela acara LPS Research Fair di Hotel JS Luwansa, Jakarta, Selasa (25/9/2018). Berdasarkan data Reuters dolar AS memang pernah berada di kisaran Rp 8.000 an sampai Rp 10.000-an pada tahun 2012 pertengahan 2013. Dia menjelaskan, kondisi beberapa tahun sebelumnya juga memiliki indikator bunga acuan yang rendah. Saat ini Indonesia sudah memasuki keseimbangan baru, Bank Indonesia (BI) juga sudah merespon dengan kebijakan suku bunga yang sesuai dengan target inflasi. Halim menjelaskan, jika suku bunga di dunia naik maka negara lain termasuk Indonesia akan mencari keseimbangan baru lagi. "Jadi begini, kalau ada kondisi suku bunga naik, maka keseimbangannya akan berubah lagi. Kalau The Fed bunganya naik, maka tak hanya di Indonesia negara lain juga likuiditasnya akan berkurang karena uangnya kembali," imbuh dia. Mengutip Reuters pukul 13.00 WIB dolar AS tercatat Rp 14.905. Berdasarkan data Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) dolar AS tercatat Rp 14.893.

Dolar AS terbilang cukup sering ngamuk. Dolar AS bahkan pernah menyentuh level tertinggi selama era Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Pada Rabu (5/9), dolar AS terpantau bergerak pada level 14.926 hingga 14.999. Adapun pelemahan mata uang rupiah terhadap US$ berbarengan dengan sejumlah mata uang negara lainnya. Sejumlah mata uang yang tertekan dolar AS di antaranya euro (0,06%), poundsterling (0,33%), dan Rusian rubble (0,44%). Sementara China yuan renminbi berhasil menguat 0,14%. Bagaimana perjalanan dolar AS sepanjang Pemerintahan Jokowi terhadap rupiah? Pada 20 Oktober 2014 atau bertepatan saat Jokowi dilantik sebagai Presiden, dolar AS berada di Rp 12.030. Posisi tersebut terpantau lebih tinggi. Pada 21 Agustus 2013, saat itu dolar AS ditukar dengan Rp 11.288. Sempat menyentuh Rp 14.710, penguatan dolar AS sempat mereda di 20 Oktober 2015 yakni di 13.645. Dolar AS kembali menyentuh level Rp 14.000an lagi pada 14 Desember 2015 yakni di 14.077. Pada 20 Oktober 2017, dolar AS parkir di 13.500 sebelum akhirnya mereda di 25 Januari 2018 yang tercatat di Rp 13.288. Tren pelemahan terus berlanjut hingga pada 5 September dolar AS menyentuh Rp 14.999. Tinggal sedikit lagi dolar AS menyentuh Rp 15.000. Sejak saat itu dolar AS bergerak pada rentang yang tak terlalu jauh dari Rp 13.900-13.800. Bahkan dolar AS tak pernah lagi menyentuh posisi di bawah Rp 14.800. Read the full article

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