#nanjo's gonna get locked roomed somehow

[pochapal]

my final bets for these last three victims are natsuhi, nanjo, and genji (not necessarily in that order)

[catgirlennui]

Completed Umineko chapter 1 and I gotta say, I agree with Battler, all the murders are 100% human doable. I have two “Theorems” about what happened, “#19” and “The Cult”. 19 makes the fewest assumptions about the story, but I find The Cult more interesting.

In 19 we assume that there really is someone out there pretending to be Beatrice for some reason or another that wants our clan of bourgeois dead. Doesn’t matter who, they deserve it. From the start they have Maria pegged as their little assistant. They cull their first six victims easy enough be it be force or poison, my money is on poison for the brats and force for the servants. Kinzo hides from Natsuhi and Eva because he just can’t be bothered and later rushes outside at the barest hint of a Beatrice like figure out his window. From their Eva being a bitch a running away to their room is a given, so they just hide under the bed, do the murder, hide again, then leave once everyone clears out. Kanon requires no real explanation. Maria plays her role and delivers the letter of discord. Getting into the locked parlor to murder 3 unarmed elders is no problem either, Maria could unlock the door, but there’s an even simpler solution.

So far the story has treated locks like magical things that only open to the proper key, but facts are facts, locks only keep out people who don’t really want to get in. Modern locks can be picked by anyone with basic tools and some practice, let alone whatever was standard in 1986, and that’s not even what the mansion is outfitted with. These locks and keys looks like they’re straight from the dark ages, anyone with a bent piece of metal and a heart for larceny could pop these open. For the sake of future arguments we’ll assume that Kinzo’s study has a strong lock even by modern standards. No apprentice could ever hope to pick it, and a skilled picker would have to at least study the key first for any hope.

The Cult theory assumes that all servants, including Nanjo, loyal to Kinzo are onboard for a bit of necromancy and human sacrifice. This theory requires the reader to assume any time only servants are in a scene that the audience may be being lied to. It’s honestly kinda hard to believe that anyone around for one of Kinzo’s horny for witch rants would think this was gonna end any other way. Kumasawa plays the role of Beatrice to Maria to deliver the letter, this will be important later. The plan for the first night is to get 5 isolated guests plus Ghoda to fulfill the first night’s sacrifice. They only get 4 and draw lots for their “demon’s roulette”. Shannon loses. The next day Kannon gains entry to Kinzo’s study, noticing the receipt, since his on edge and about to kill his boss, he makes note to put it back exactly as he found it before getting his revenge. He then proceeds to play his part, and unveil last night’s handiwork. Killing Eva is easy as pie, since we can assume everything before Natsuhi arrives is fiction, they made it up. With Kinzo somehow making more of a stink in death than her did in life, the other servants make the basic deduction that Kannon got cold feat and gave their leader the hot foot. Thankfully the timely termination of the traitorous twerp keeps the schedule on track. Natsuhi correctly susses out the 3 imposters and one jester, and is about to do her job as sheriff, but the other crew talk her down. Kumasawa does her Beatrice impression again and convinces Maria to help these wizened old crones with their euthanasia. With the ritual complete Exod- I mean Beatrice is revived and calls reactor, clinching the game.

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