#my uploading might slow down more due to school work and motivation issues

[twistedroseytoesy]

What if Yuu and some students sang Carpe Diem from Phineas and Ferb as a closing act for VDC?

Super fun idea! Yet another AU for the VDC, hope y’all like it!

The day of the VDC was a week away. Many of the groups were rehearsing and finalizing their acts. Yet mc felt left out as they watched their group get ready for the big day. They’re err just a manager, therefore they weren’t allowed to participate. That was stupid. So the decided to do something about it. Going to the school library and printing about 20 flyers, they taped them up around the school.

Needed! 20 students or more to help with a closing act for the VDC! If interested please meet in the gymnasium at 4 pm on xxxx day.

With that set out they prepared a few things and waited until the next day. There they judged a recruited a variety of students. Some of the more familiar ones, such as lilia, cater, jade surprisingly, and silver. Also g with many students from various forms happy to have a chance to perform.

Now with their group set up, they got to rehearsing. By the day of the VDC they were ready, along with magical fireworks and other fun magical visual effects.

after all the groups had gone out the mc walked out onto the stage. “Ladies and gentleman, wizards and witches, please put your hands together for the final act of the day! Brought to you by a group of NRC students who are glad you’ve all come this far, and proud of the groups performances today! And onto the song carpe diem!”

music started up as a large group of 30 students along with mc came into the stage, moving around and dancing to the music as they sang together.

“Well we hope you all enjoyed the show Hope it was not anticlimactic Now there's something we want you to know And we don't want to sound didactic!”

different groups did tumbling over summoned blocks and pads. Other groups did mini duels of brilliant light magic creating and sending out rainbows over the crowd.

“But if there's one thing we can say I know it sounds a bit cliché There's no such thing As just an ordinary day”

mc and grim appear above the groups riding a ghostly roller coaster along with their ghost friends and hopping down into the arms of the group. The coaster flying over and out of the arena with the ghosts laughing loudly.

“And you don't have to build a roller coaster Just find your own way to make the most of Upcoming days of summer And dance to the beat of a different drummer Just grab those opportunities when you see 'em 'Cause every day's a brand new day, you gotta Carpe Diem!”

the groups continued to sing and dance, using a mix of magic and talent to awe the crowd as the song came to an end with all the students miraculously in a pyramid with mc and grim at the top.

“'Cause every day's a brand new day, you gotta Carpe Diem!”

the Cory’s went wild, clapping and cheering as the students undid their pyramid, mc sliding down a magical slide created for them. they grabbed the mike one more time.

“thank you all for coming to the VDC! And now onto the winners ceremony!”

The students moved off the stage as the competitors came into the stage. Ace and deuce stood just off stage to free the prefect.

ace punched their arm before saying, “you traitor! You made up a fun dance thing behind our backs! You didn’t even invite us!” Deuce frowned a bit but remained silent.

“sorry fellas, I wanted to dance. So I did just that. Now you go win that event!” They said pushing ace toward the stage, giving a good slap to his ass. They nodded to deuce and he nodded back looking very serious as he followed ace onto tue stage.

it was unfortunate that the NRC tribe got second place and that the final act wasn’t allowed to be voted for due to it not being officially a part of the show. But mc couldn’t say that they were up set, they fought an overblot, saved their friends lives, and Vil’s, and gave one banger of a performance. Despite all their setbacks, they were successful. And they were ready to carpe diem.

[hopefulfestivaltastemaker]

January 17, 2021

This is my weekly roundup of things I am up to and looking at. Topics include human rights, decentralized social media, the I5 bridge replacement, Kuznets curves, and the Trump administration rundown.

Human Rights

I added a bit more to the Social Well-Being section of the Urban Cruise Ship site, which is mostly on human rights topics.

Having followed the work of, e.g. Steven Pinker and Has Rosling, I had expected to present a view that the world human rights situation was getting inexorably better. The reality is that the picture is more mixed. Democratization peaked some time around 2007 and has been in decline since then, though the world is still much more democratic than in the 1970s. Education, defined as the number of children not in school, made great progress in the 2000s, but now progress seems to be stalling.

It is my read of the data that inequality is generally increasing in wealthy countries, and decreasing (though it’s a mixed bag) in poorer countries. More important than inequality within countries is inequality between countries, and that metric appears to be going down as the world undergoes the Great Convergence, or the tendency of incomes of countries to converge as poorer countries experience fast growth and richer countries experience slow growth. This follows the Great Divergence that occurred from around 1800 to 1975.

Economic freedom is generally improving across the world. It has been the case historically, and it remains true today, that there is a correlation between economic freedom and political freedom. But with the rise of state capitalist or illiberal capitalist societies, that correlation seems to be getting weaker.

Freedom House’s review of freedom of the press unfortunately had its last year in 2016, and it showed an improvement, following by a stalling, of freedom of the press worldwide. It does not appear to me that the situation has generally improved in the last four years.

I have to move on, but I would like to look at these figures much more carefully. Taken as a whole, the picture for human rights in the 2010s looks like a mixed bag, with some areas of progress and some areas of regression, without an obvious trend one way or the other. This joins other observations about the present state of the world, which is also seeing declining productivity growth, seeming technological stagnation, the spread of sub-replacement birth rates, and the proliferation of dangerous debt levels. Although it is premature to panic, it should be clear that at least something is not working as we might hope, and we could ask whether a person’s effort is best focused on returning to the roots of principles of liberal democracy, or on bringing about a post-liberal order.

Decentralized Social Media

The noise has quieted down a little bit now, but there has been much consternation lately about whether the tech industry exercises too much power. Major events that have prompted these concerns include Donald Trump’s Twitter account being disabled and the social network Parler having its AWS service canceled.

I’ve generally taken a hard-line market position, arguing that whatever the merits of actions by Amazon, Twitter, and other companies, they are private companies and should be able to set their own policies without government interference. This is a minority view, though, and it looks increasingly likely that there will be some kind of regulation. Balaji Srinivasan pointed out on Twitter that the major tech companies came out of an era (recent, yet feels long ago) when the dominance of both the United States and American technology companies was beyond reasonable question. Now there are more alternatives to both, as well as growing concerns about nationalism, privacy, cybersecurity, and other factors that may motivate regulation.

I think the only lasting defense against the impulse to regulate is to build decentralized alternatives to major tech services that are inherently impossible to regulate, both by governments and by major corporations. This sounds nice, but in practice the industry is moving toward greater centralization for a reason. It is one thing to built a decentralized Twitter; I could probably do that myself. It is quite another to build a decentralized Twitter with the security, scalability, and reliability that one expects from main service. Parler evidently failed in these tasks; not only could they not survive the cancellation of their AWS contract, they did not secure vital data of their users. It is even more difficult to replicate the community that comes with scale. Building a decentralized version of AWS is even harder, as this means replicating a large and growing volume of computing resources. These companies have thousands of software engineers each.

So, “if you don’t like [Facebook/Twitter/Uber/Amazon/AirBnB/whatever] you should build your own alternative” is not yet a credible response. Such alternatives don’t exist for lack of effort. We don’t even have a widespread decentralized app for identity. I would start there. If that problem can be solved, then maybe there is some hope for more complex issues.

Metro and the I5 Bridge Replacement

Oregon Metro is getting off to a new term. In a work session this week, we heard from Metro’s lobbyist. He lamented the fact that there will probably be some security added in Salem, taking away the historic openness that the state capital has had. Aside from being closed due to Covid, there was a security incident last month which now implicates one of the legislators.

The main event of the work session, though, was the I5 Bridge Replacement, a project formerly known as the Columbia River Crossing. This project has been on the agenda for Oregon and Washington for most of my adult lifetime, and the states are now aiming for construction to be complete in 2025. I’ll be happy if it’s done this decade.

The main topic this week was the restorative justice program, which basically boils down to paying people with homes or businesses in the Albina neighborhood, which will be the site of much of the construction. The money didn’t seem to be sufficient for some council members. In addition, others are concerned about the fact that there is any highway project at all, wanting more money for local streets and/or non-automotive transportation.

While I am not without sympathy for the opposition to the bridge, I find the CRC and successor project to be prime examples of the syndromes that prevent the construction of any kind of infrastructure. Portland is one of the worst cities in the country for traffic congestion (though it has recently improved slightly), and the cost of living is significantly higher than the national average. If you don’t like highway projects, then fine, but propose credible alternatives that work for the region as a whole. There are some, but I don’t see Metro pursuing them. Simply obstructing projects, or adding ancillary priorities that raise costs, make problems worse for the region.

Kuznets Curves

Back to Urban Cruise Ship stuff, I whipped up a plot on Kuznets curves this week. An (environmental) Kuznets curve is a hypothetical model under which an environmental impacts shows a U-shaped curve with income. In other words, as income grows, the impact gets worse to a point, but it tends to get better after a certain level of income. Generally speaking, water pollutants and localized air pollutants show clear signs of Kuznets curves, while for other impacts such as municipal solid waste and CO2 emissions, the evidence is inconclusive.

To be honest, I have my skepticism about the whole business. I find Kuznets curves exhibit the “reading history sideways” fallacy, where the development of countries is assumed to be a predictable, linear process such that poor countries today look like rich countries yesterday, and rich countries today look like poor countries tomorrow. Some, though not many, scholars seem to have noticed this problem specifically in the context of Kuznets curves.

Misgivings aside, I hope to have several more results to present. Perhaps at some point I will attempt my own analysis. I tried something similar a few years ago when I was at The Breakthrough Institute, though those efforts were not successful.

As for other work, I also spent some time on the section on Economic System, though that is still not uploaded. I had hoped to have it down by now, but the section is turning out to be both longer than harder than I thought.

Some thoughts on the Trump Administration

This will be my last blog post while Donald Trump is still president, so I thought I would review some of what I see to be the highlights and lowlights of the last four years. The administration published their own list of accomplishments. This is not meant to be a comprehensive list, but rather a list that I find to be of particular interest.

The Good

There has been some significant reductions in regulation, which has helped power the economic good times of the administration’s first three years. These regulations have, in particular, helped the production of natural gas, which has done more than anything else to replace coal power (though, in fairness, the development of fracking and tight oil has been a bipartisan effort that goes back to the Ford administration).

Trump has had three appointments to the Supreme Court: Neil Gorsuch, Bret Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. Each of these justices have earned strong credibility through the Federalist Society, and I think they have generally done a good job.

(Fun fact: Jimmy Carter is the only president who served a full term and did not get a Supreme Court nomination.)

The Mixed

In 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act bill was signed. This was a major tax reform bill which did far too many things to comment on, but a main thrust was bringing corporate tax rates in line with international standards. I give this legislation significant credit for the strong economic conditions that prevailed prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. The cap on the SALT deduction was good too.

Unfortunately, tax cuts were not balanced with spending cuts, raising the deficit to around $1 trillion per year prior to the pandemic. These are dangerous levels that the United States should not be running during good times. Now we have deficits exceeding $3 trillion per year, a debt/GDP ratio in excess of a dangerous 100%, and an excuse for Democrats to embark on their own reckless spending plans.

(Another fun fact: U.S. federal budgets were last balanced under Bill Clinton. Before that, budgets were balanced briefly under Nixon.)

The Bad

Immigration and refugee rates have fallen significantly, in large part because of administration policy, and international trade has increased, despite administration policy.

The list of accomplishments above has a long section about the Covid-19 response (or the “China virus”), but there is no way to spin the fact that the American response has been atrocious. The best defense for the administration is that most governors and mayors have also responded poorly.

Much criticism has been directed at Trump’s personality and use of conspiracy theory, much of which is fair and much exaggerated. I think the least that can be said is that the Trump administration, like other recent administrations, provides a strong case for Congress to reclaim the authority that it has ceded to the executive branch.

Missed Opportunities

At HUD, Ben Carson started writing a rule to replace the Affirmative Furthering Fair Housing regulation that would have been the strongest federal action so far on liberalizing zoning. Those efforts were scuttled by the rest of the administration.

In 2020, the Trump administration embarked on an effort to cut the time of environmental assessments and environmental impact statements under NEPA. However, the effort has not been completed and I don’t think is likely to continue under the Biden administration.