#maybe davi should have told her to insist on being the leader like i think he was thinking like my mom but she rllly wanted the leadership
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dubiousdisco · 9 months ago
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my mom really didn't want isa to be the leader this time because she was worried isa would get into the radar of the other participants and that the ones she would pre indicate to the elimination zone/paredão would want revenge, so mom was siding with davi when he said isa shouldn't be leader because nobody in the house had it out for her, and she's really happy cause she feels isa is protected now, i wanted her to be the leader for the parintins themed party she would choose cause it would be so beautiful but i do think that if fernanda, for example, comes back from elimination (which i think she will if she is against rodriguinho) she will now focus on bia instead of 100% on isa. but also.... #isa leader.... :'(
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upthenorthmountain · 5 years ago
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Heartwood - Chapter 2
Chapter 1
I need to make a fic page, will try and do that today, but do I want to draw a picture? Hmm
Anyway here’s chapter two!
Chapter 2
No one noticed when Anna got home, and no one noticed that she didn’t eat any dinner. She went up to her bare, sterile room and she lay on the bed, looking at the ceiling. If anyone came in they would only see my head and my hair, she thought, all in white as I am, on these white sheets. She looked down at herself and pulled her hands up into her sleeves. If I were to die right now then they would just have to carry me out, straighten the counterpane, and everything in the world would keep going the same as it always has. They’d have to tell Elsa, of course, otherwise she might not realise I wasn’t here any more.
A year. One more summer, one more autumn, one more winter, then maybe a slice of spring. And that was all.
She wondered what would happen when she told Elsa.
She’d drag her back to the doctor, that’s what would happen. She’d ask a thousand questions, and she’d insist on that referral, and they’d go to the city; and there would be so many doctors, and so many more white rooms like this one. Anna would be poked and prodded and half her blood would be run through machines; and they’d cut her open and poke around in there as well, and post her into MRI machines and goodness knew what. A year to live, and that’s how she’d spend it.
Maybe...maybe she didn’t have to tell Elsa straight away.
Maybe she didn’t have to tell her at all.
Anna slept very little that night. By the time the sun finally rose, the sunrise filling the white room with some colour for once, she’d made up her mind. On the stroke of 9am, she rang the doctor’s office, and said she’d like to cancel her appointment for next week, please. No, she didn’t want to reschedule. Yes, she’d call back if she changed her mind. Thank you.
And then she went out. It seemed like a good day to buy a red dress.
-----
The dress was perfect. It was a rich, deep, cranberry red; it was fitted at the top with a skirt that swirled beautifully; it showed a little more cleavage than Anna was used to, but still fairly respectable - other people she knew showed a lot more, certainly. None of her shoes went with it, of course. It needed sparkly shoes. Fortunately, the shop sold those too, and a matching necklace.
Anna’s daring didn’t quite extend to wearing the dress at home. She quailed a little at Elsa seeing it, and wasn’t sure she wouldn’t end up changing, and then when she got home the dress - and shoes, and necklace - would have disappeared. But she had a charity tea this afternoon, and her outfit was perfectly appropriate. Elsa wouldn’t be there, and no one else would think anything of it.
She changed quickly in the Ladies in the reception of the hotel, and on a whim, brushed her hair down too. Her hair waved naturally, and usually had to be pulled back to keep it neat - but today she didn’t feel like looking neat. She pinned a little of it back from her face and peered at herself in the mirror. She hadn’t brought any make-up, and her freckles were showing something awful - but nothing she could do about it now.
The tea was taking place in the main ballroom. Anna gave her ticket to the staff member at the door, took a deep breath, and went in.
-----
She did get a few odd glances. She suspected a few acquaintances didn’t recognise her immediately. Anna took a drink and said a few hellos, then she stood to one side and looked around.
It suddenly struck her how pointless this all was. No one wants to be here, she thought. They’d all rather be at home or on the golf course or conducting their tedious extra-marital affairs, but it’s for charity so here they are. Imagine how much better the charity would do if they all just donated the same amount but no one had to book the room or buy the drink or arrange for the tiny food. Anna snagged what she suspected was some kind of deconstructed cucumber sandwich from a tray. It was actually quite good. If this is an afternoon tea, though, surely there should be cake?
She took another miniscule sandwich and wandered over to the staff member who seemed to be overseeing the waiting staff. “Excuse me,” she asked him, “Is there any cake?”
“Cake?”
“Mm. It’s not a criticism, I was just wondering. These are very good, by the way.”
“Thank you. There will be a selection of fancy cakes and meringues served after the speech from the charity representative.”
“Oh, okay. Thank you.” Anna paused. Did she want to listen to a speech? Was that really how she wanted to spend her hours on Earth, that were apparently very precious?
“D’you think I could get a cake to go?” she said. “I have to leave now. Medical reasons.”
The man hesitated, then he shrugged and disappeared towards the kitchen. Anna surveyed the room again - there was no one here she actually, actively wanted to talk to - and thought about what she could do instead. She could go anywhere. The thought was thrilling but also a little terrifying.
She remembered meeting Mrs Davies yesterday. Mrs Davies - Lillian - had been her Science teacher, back when she had gone to the local secondary school (her father hadn’t really approved of private education, he thought it gave the wrong mindset. Her sister did approve of it, or maybe she just approved of paying money to make Anna someone else’s problem, so she’d done her A-levels at a boarding school where she’d known no one and no one wanted to be friends with the girl who cried all the time). Mrs Davies - Lillian - had been an excellent teacher, friendly and enthusiastic and full of a passion for Science and nature. Anna was not at all surprised to find her spending her retirement engaging in a little light environmental protest. She’d also been Anna’s Girl Guide leader, and taken her camping a couple of times when she was twelve or thirteen. Oh, she’d love to see her again, and have a proper chat.
She knew exactly where Bennett’s Field was. She remembered, when she was a little girl, walking down there with her father. The footpath ran down the side of the field, and then skirted the edge of the woods. You had to stay on the footpath as far as the old oak tree, because the land on either side belonged to someone else, but the corner of the field and a small patch of the woods belonged to her father.
The memory stopped her short. Yes. It belonged to him. At some point when the farmland had been chopped up and parts of it sold, a small amount of the field and a corner of the woods had been bundled in with some other land her father had bought to develop. She thought so, anyway. She couldn’t see how it would have been sold, unless the developers of the field had bought it - there was no reason anyone would have told Anna about that.
She ducked out of the room and leant against the corridor wall. Imagine if it was still theirs - she would gladly, happily let the protestors stay on their corner of the field, make whatever observations they needed to in their corner of the woods. How did she find out? 
Anna knew where her lawyer’s office was. She’d heard her parents’ wills being read there, and she’d been there on a handful of other occasions since she came of age, to sign odd documents and make her own will at Elsa’s insistence. It was only four’o’clock. She ran down outside and found a taxi.
-----
Mr Owens was very obliging, and agreed to see her, despite the short notice. Anna suspected he might have some sympathies with the bats; very soon the pair of them were looking at the map, and Anna was thrilled to see that she was correct.
“I think someone used to live there, many years ago,” Mr Owens said. “Although there’s no building there now, and you’d never get planning permission - the only access is along the public footpath, no utilities. So it’s not worth anything.”
“I don’t want to live there,” Anna said, though she did, a little. “But I could camp there if I wanted, couldn’t I?”
“Yes, of course.”
“With some friends, maybe.”
“If you liked. Of course, if the wood does become a Site of Special Scientific Interest, that would affect you, too.”
“That would be alright.” Anna traced the outline of the little patch of land on the map. “And if they build on the rest of the field?”
“Then they might give you access, but maybe not. They tried to buy this land, as you know,” he said.
“I didn’t, no.”
“Your sister didn’t tell you? They weren’t willing to pay what she was asking. To be quite honest, I advised her to take whatever she could get, they were the only people who might have given you anything for it. Like I said, it’s worthless.”
“Unless you’re a bat,” Anna said absently. Had Elsa been being greedy, or had she just not wanted to sell?
“Well, I suppose that’s true.”
“Can I have a copy of this map, please?”
“You can take that one, if you like. Was there anything else?”
“No, that was all. Thank you so much for seeing me.”
“No problem at all, Miss Rendell. I’m glad I could help.”
-----
“I might go away for a few days,” Anna announced over breakfast the next morning.
Elsa looked up from her paper. “Really?” she said. 
“Mmhm.”
“To where? With whom?”
“Um, you know I used to be in Guides? My old Guide leader invited me to go camping with her and some friends.” Anna buttered her toast without looking up. “I’ll have to get some camping things but there’s that shop on the retail park, isn’t there? I’ll run over there this morning.”
“Camping?” Elsa looked horrified. “Why would you want to do that?”
Anna shrugged. “Felt like it. You won’t even notice I’m gone.”
Elsa pulled a face. “I don’t think you’ll enjoy that at all, Anna. Camping! In a tent?”
“If I remember right, that’s how it goes.” Anna looked up. “If I don’t like it, I’ll come back. It’s not far.”
“How long for?”
“I don’t know. I’ll have my phone.”
“And where will you charge it?”
“I’ll get a solar charger.”
“And where exactly are you going?”
“Um. Bennett’s Field.”
Elsa dropped her paper. “Not that - Anna! You know they’re squatting illegally. That’s not camping, it’s a protest. What will you do if the police get involved?”
“Mm. But, if they moved over a bit to the north - and I was there - it wouldn’t be illegal, as such, would it.”
Elsa was quiet for a while, watching her sister’s face. Then she said, “I didn’t know you knew about that land.”
“Dad told me.  A long time ago.”
“You don’t have to actually stay with them. You could just give them permission, if that’s what you want. And stay here.”
“I think I’d like to go, thanks.”
Elsa looked at her again, for a long moment, then she picked up her newspaper. “As you wish.”
Anna took a big bite of her toast. That had been easier than she expected.
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pnwdoodlesreads · 8 years ago
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The reports began filtering in on election night.
At the Southern California offices of the Counsel of American-Islamic Relations, CAIR’s civil rights monitors received their first call within hours of Donald Trump’s victory. A Muslim woman wearing the traditional hijab headscarf reported being refused service at a gas station by an attendant who allegedly announced, “I don’t need to serve you anymore. We’re trying to make America great again.”
And a widely shared Facebook post from friends of a Calgary film producer showed a graphic photo of the man, who was bloodied outside a Santa Monica bar, allegedly for being gay, immediately after watching election returns with a date as raucous patrons shouted to the pair, “We have a new president, faggot!”
The new president’s rhetoric has been implicated in a flurry of incidents throughout the state, dating back to June of 2015, when he first announced his White House bid amid a blare of anti-Mexican and anti-Muslim vitriol, a tone maintained throughout a campaign that, according to CAIR, effectively mainstreamed Islamophobia in the United States.
Balmeet Singh is neither a Muslim nor an immigrant, but a member of Bakersfield’s large Sikh community and sports the full beard and distinctive turban that is mandatory dress for religiously observant Sikh men. He was born in Ohio to South Asian parents and moved with his family to Kern County as a child. During the final stretch of the election campaign, the 31-year-old Bakersfield realtor got a first-hand taste of the fear and public humiliation that an increasing number of Californians are experiencing in the age of Trump.
On the evening of Sept. 30, 2016, Singh was having dinner at a Habit Burger restaurant in a West Park commercial strip mall when he stepped out to a patio dining area to take a phone call from his cousin.
“He turned 14 that day,” Singh recalled in a phone call to Capital & Main. “And so here I am, wishing him a happy birthday, having a long conversation with him, when out of the corner of my eye [I saw] a Caucasian man approach and he started yelling at me, telling me that I was a terrorist, that I was going to blow up the country.”
Confused, Singh said he stared uncomprehendingly as the bearded and tattooed man repeated the words, adding, “I should fucking kill you right now.” Instead, said Singh, the man threw his drink at him, soaking Singh’s turban and clothes as nearby diners watched.
“I felt the adrenaline rush, the fight or flight,” Singh remembered. “I actually told him that I would call the police, and I stepped towards him . . . and had actually dialed 911, and I think that’s why he walked away.”
Fortunately, the cup contained nothing more lethal than a cold beverage, and Singh was able to give the police a description of the assailant along with his vehicle make and license plate number. But it was little consolation, given the shock of what had just happened. Most painful, he said, is the memory of what didn’t happen.
“They just sat there,” Singh said incredulously of the other diners. “I don’t know if this was the bystander effect or what, but none of them said or did anything. . . . That was painful because my cousins were inside the Habit Burger, so I had to walk inside afterwards past all of these people who had just seen what happened. They are talking and laughing and having a good time, and here I am, dripping this liquid and in shock.”
A December report by the Southern Poverty Law Center had California leading the nation in post-election hate incidents, tallying 125 for the state in the month following Nov. 8. The center also recorded a dramatic surge in the number of U.S. anti-Muslim hate groups, which nearly tripled in 2016 over its tally for 2015 — a year that itself saw a 67 percent jump in hate crimes against Muslims across the country.
A CAIR spokesperson told Capital & Main that November and December alone saw reports coming into its office of anti-Muslim incidents in Los Angeles and Orange County roughly triple that of pre-election monthly averages.
Some of those 2016 California incidents include:
A fire that was set to the Islamic Society of the Coachella Valley in December of 2015, for which a Palm Desert man is serving a six-year sentence for perpetrating a hate crime. The incident may have been prompted in response to the mass shooting in San Bernardino that had occurred earlier that month, which was denounced by Donald Trump.
The November murder of Will Sims, a young African-American jazz musician from Oakland, who was shot to death by three white men outside a pool hall in El Sobrante, Contra Costa County, just days after the election, in what police concluded was a hate-related killing.
November letters sent to multiple California mosques threatening genocide against Muslims — while praising Donald Trump.
In December, after a Muslim worshiper was stabbed in a parking lot adjacent to a Simi Valley mosque following Saturday prayers, two Simi Valley men were arrested on suspicion of making criminal threats and committing a hate crime.
More recently, a 30-year-old Davis woman was charged in the January hate-crime vandalism of a mosque in which security cameras captured her smashing windows, vandalizing bicycles and draping bacon — a proscribed food in Islam — on an exterior door handle.
The true numbers are likely higher. According to CAIR, because of the climate of fear surrounding the administration’s ramped up deportations and Trump’s executive order barring refugees and entry by citizens from seven Muslim-majority countries, those most vulnerable to hate violence also tend to be reticent when it comes to reporting incidents to police or speaking to the media.
The man who targeted Balmeet Singh turned out to be 40-year-old David Hook of Bakersfield, who later claimed that he had heard Singh “say something about a bomb” during the cell call and confronted him about it. Hook insisted he had a constitutional right to take direct action against Singh, believing that “If you see something, say something.” The Kern County District Attorney’s office, however, was unconvinced and charged Hook with two hate crime misdemeanors, including one count of interference with the exercise of a civil right and one count of battery. (Attempts to reach Hook for comment were unsuccessful.)
For his part, Singh, who formerly taught special education, thought there was a learning opportunity to be had. Since 9/11, he noted, the country’s Sikh community has increasingly found itself at risk in similarly mistaken and sometimes far more tragic hate attacks. And so Singh arranged with the DA’s office for a 15-minute face-to-face with his attacker, believing that the dialogue and perspective could result in something positive. But Hook was not open to persuasion.
“There was no remorse,” Singh admitted. “He basically told me that he didn’t want to see me again and that he was a military veteran. He said, ‘I have served the country, what have you done?’ He was just yelling this stuff over and over.”
On the positive side, Singh was inundated with hopeful messages on social media, and Bakersfield residents stepped forward with an outpouring of support, including an anonymous delivery of flowers to his realty office with a card that read, “Just remember: Bakersfield is better than this. We’re not all like that.”
Still, the experience has been sobering. Recalling his father, who came to the United States in the 1980s with $200 in his pocket, a medical degree and a desire to have a better life than the one he left behind in India, Singh reflected on the rising levels of fear, mistrust and misunderstanding that he fears have tarnished the American dream.
“Maybe I am a little naive in thinking that every story has a happy ending or thinking that people will change,” he said. “I see what’s happening here and [my father] talks about how America is different from the America that he remembers in the ’80s when he came. It seems that this hatred was maybe not as open — at least on a public level — by politicians and by leaders. It does affect everyone. I was speaking to a schoolteacher here, who said that in his school, kids were walking down the hallway chanting, ‘Build the wall, build the wall!’ These are the values that we are now instilling on our children.”
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vioncentral-blog · 7 years ago
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Some Fuming, Others Defensive After UK Tory MP's 'Strange' Brexit Uni Letter
https://www.vionafrica.cf/some-fuming-others-defensive-after-uk-tory-mps-strange-brexit-uni-letter/
Some Fuming, Others Defensive After UK Tory MP's 'Strange' Brexit Uni Letter
Chris Heaton-Harris, a Tory whip and Brexiteer, sparked outrage among British university bosses and staff after he wrote to them seeking the names of lecturers teaching about Brexit as well as requesting information about the content of their online lectures over the UK's exit from the European Union.
Dr. Philip Catney, senior lecturer at the School of Politics, Philosophy, International Relations and Environment at Keele University, admitted it was a "strange" and concerning request for the universities to receive.
"He gives no clear rationale for this information request and the interpretation of it naturally leads to concerns about the nature of academic freedom. Memorably, Michael Gove decried 'experts' during the referendum campaign and Brexiteers appear to have a problematic relationship with how issues like Brexit are discussed and debated. Universities have to teach many difficult and controversial issues and enjoy autonomy from the state in how we teach these," Dr. Catney told Sputnik.
Unbelievable!
— Jussi (@eudoxos) October 24, 2017​
Maybe he just wants them to explain it to him.
— Duncan Collins (@carpal24) October 24, 2017​
"If Brexiteers want to have their views presented in serious intellectual discussions inside universities then they should make a serious academic contribution to the debate through rigorously developed research. Soundbites and threats will prove counterproductive in such a debate," Dr. Catney added.
University chiefs have already revealed they will refuse to comply with the request by Mr. Heaton-Harris sent to vice-chancellors at the start of October asking for the names of any professors involved in teaching European affairs "with particular reference to Brexit."
The controversial letter provided no explanation for the request, but asked for a copy of each university's syllabus and any online lectures on Brexit.
The Prosecution
The move has been met with sharp disapproval from British Prime Minister Theresa May, who immediately disowned him by insisting that the MP for Daventry was not acting on behalf of the government.
"Chris Heaton-Harris wrote to universities in his capacity as an MP, not as a representative of the government… The letter was sent in a personal capacity. Free speech is one of the foundations on which our universities are built and of course it should be respected," a spokesman for the UK premier said on Tuesday, October 25.
Lord Patten, the chancellor of the University of Oxford, called the letter an "extraordinary example of outrageous and foolish behavior — offensive and idiotic Leninism."
"I couldn't believe that it had come from a Conservative MP. I think he must be an agent of [Labour leader] Mr. Corbyn intent on further increasing the number of young people who want to vote Labour," Lord Patten said.
© AFP 2017/ Ben Stansall UK Gov't 'Could Be Guilty of Biggest Cover-Up in Decades': Gina Miller on Secret Brexit ReportsDavid Green, the vice-chancellor of Worcester University, said: "[It] appears so innocent but is really so, so dangerous. Here is the first step to thought police, the political censor and Newspeak, naturally justified as 'the will of the British people,' a phrase to be found on Mr. Heaton-Harris's website."
Alistair Jarvis, the chief executive of Universities UK, which represents university chiefs, commented: "This request suggests an alarming attempt to censor or challenge academic freedom."
There was serious criticism also from the opposition parties with Angela Rayner, the shadow education secretary, describing the Tory MP as acting like a "pound shop McCarthy."
"It would be deeply ironic if, even as the universities minister was unveiling his latest unworkable gimmick in the name of free speech, a senior Tory colleague was busy compiling a register of heretics," Ms. Rayner said.
"The last thing universities need is some kind of pound shop McCarthy telling them what they are allowed to teach. Academics and students are perfectly capable of critical thinking and discussion about policy issues like Brexit. If only we could say the same about Tory ministers," she added.
Layla Moran, education spokeswoman of the Liberal Democrats, called for Heaton-Harris to be sacked from his role as a whip. She demanded the MP explain his actions.
"This chilling letter could have come straight out of a dystopian novel. Conservative Brexiteers know they have lost the intellectual debate and now appear to be engaging in a witch-hunt," Ms. Moran said.
Sally Hunt, general secretary of The Universities and Colleges Union, condemned the "McCarthyite" letter.
CC0Hunt for the Brussels Dinner Mole Deepens as Tensions Mount Between UK and EU
"This attempt by Chris Heaton-Harris to compile a hit-list of professors has the acrid whiff of McCathyism about it and Jo Johnson [the higher education minister] must disown it in the strongest terms," Ms. Hunt argued.
The Defense
As criticism of Heaton-Harris's letter mounted, Mr. Johnson tweeted that the government was committed to protecting academic freedom. He admitted his colleague was "regretting very much" his decision, insisting it was being done to "pursue inquiries of his own" which may lead to a book on "the evolution of attitudes" to Europe.
Academic freedom absolutely fundamental and protected in statute in our recent Higher Education & Research Act 2017 https://t.co/yegE6hV5LA
— Jo Johnson (@JoJohnsonUK) October 24, 2017
Academic freedom —which we've just entrenched in statute in Higher Ed &Research Bill 2017! — is core to success +better protected than ever
— Jo Johnson (@JoJohnsonUK) October 24, 2017​​
"Chris was acting in an individual capacity as an MP rather than as a government minister… Chris has a very longstanding interest in European affairs and the history of European thought. I am sure Chris is regretting this very much. The critical thing is that the government is absolutely committed to academic freedom and to freedom of speech in our universities. A letter which could have been misinterpreted should probably not have been sent," Mr. Johnson admitted.
Mr. Heaton Harris has tweeted himself, saying:
To be absolutely clear, I believe in free speech in our universities and in having an open and vigorous debate on Brexit.
— Chris Heaton-Harris (@chhcalling) October 24, 2017​
Several Conservative party colleagues have defended Mr. Heaton-Harris, however, with one, Paul Scully MP for Sutton & Cheam, tweeting an image of a flyer for a "100 percent Remain" rally to stop Brexit in Bristol, with the message:
.@chhcalling this is what a lecturer was handing out to my daughter who spends £9k pa for him to be teaching engineering, not politics pic.twitter.com/yFLvsU8Acm
— Paul Scully (@scullyp) October 24, 2017
��Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons and fellow Leave supporter, described the letter as being "very courteous and not at all threatening letter."
"Universities are bastions of free speech so to be horrified at somebody asking a simple question with no caveat or demands either implicit or explicit in it, it seems to me to be a bit odd that they should react in such a negative way," Ms. Leadsom said said.
Philip Davies, Tory MP for Shipley, attacked the "false outrage" from academics and suggested British universities had been "rumbled." He added that universities were full of "left-wing lecturers forcing their opinions on their students," and they should be "more balanced in their teaching."
As vice-chamberlain of Her Majesty's household, Mr. Heaton-Harris, 49, is the fourth most senior government whip. A longstanding euroskeptic, he was elected to the Commons in 2010 after a decade in the European parliament.
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stickyyouthstudent · 8 years ago
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Economics profession 'in crisis', says Bank of England's chief economist - Politics live
Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen
1.40pm GMT
Andy Haldane, the chief economist at the Bank of England, is speaking at the Institute for Government now. You can watch a live stream here.
The BBC’s Kamal Ahmed has been tweeting from it. Here are some of his tweets.
Andrew Haldane @bankofengland says productivity improvement holds the key to building an economy that "works for all" @ifgevents
Haldane on economists: "It's a fair cop to say that the profession is in crisis." Cd lead to a rebirth in economics.
Haldane: pre financial crisis economic models were "ill-equipped" to deal with behaviour which was "deeply irrational" @ifgevents
Haldane @bankofengland "We'd foreseen a sharper slow down than happened." Says economy is performing as if Brexit vote hadn't taken place
Haldane @bankofengland says in 2017 economy could be "somewhat more difficult". Consumers cd "throttle back" spending @ifgevents
Haldane: "I'm not saying economists should talk like Trump but we need different means of conveying our messages." Language matters
Haldane: "Full implications of Brexit [on the economy] are yet to be known." @ifgevents
12.23pm GMT
You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.
As for the rest of the papers, here is the PoliticsHome list of top 10 must-reads, and here is the ConservativeHome round-up of today’s politics stories.
Liam Fox and David Davis’s alleged failure to understand briefings in the weeks after their appointment left Sir Ivan Rogers in despair, friends have said. Britain’s top diplomat in Brussels, who resigned on Tuesday, considered quitting on more than one occasion after the referendum.
Sources said that he was frustrated by his attempts to induct the two Brexit cabinet ministers in the details of the single market and customs union ...
Less than three months away from the government’s self-imposed deadline for triggering Article 50, we still do not have a delivery plan, negotiating strategy or clear understanding of the resources required to achieve a successful Brexit. To say this is neither to be “pessimistic” or “political”, nor in denial of the referendum result, but simply make an honest statement about the reality of our situation.
Too much of the debate about Brexit starts from a naive view of how we would like to world — and Europe in particular — to be rather than how it actually is. Nowhere is this more evident than in our insistence that despite all the evidence to the contrary, we can have free trade in goods and services with Europe but not free movement of labour.
In fact, we know the predominant source of error. It stemmed from underestimating the strength of household consumption after the vote for Brexit. Economists expected a vote to leave would increase household savings in the short term, both as precautionary insurance against uncertainty and to begin an adjustment to a less prosperous future.
These were reasonable guesses, based on recent household behaviour — for example, at the time of huge banking uncertainty early in 2008. But rather than rising, household savings fell throughout 2016. The savings ratio dropped to an exceptionally low level in the third quarter as consumers went on a borrowing and spending binge not seen since before the financial crisis.
12.00pm GMT
Earlier (see 10.48am) I flagged up this Politco Europe article and said it was by Mats Persson. That’s my mistake. It’s by Daniel Korski, who also worked as an adviser to David Cameron on Europe and on other matters. I’m sorry. But it’s still a good read.
11.43am GMT
The Financial Times (subscription) has published a good article by Alex Barker this morning relating to Sir Ivan Rogers’ resignation. Barker says Rogers’ colleagues say he had his “hair on fire” worrying about the prospects of Britain getting a transitional deal as it leaves the EU.
Sir Ivan Rogers’ warning to Downing Street, leaked in December, that the EU expects a full UK trade deal to take until the early to mid-2020s seemed stark. By Brussels standards, however, it was one of the more uncontroversial aspects of his advice.
More significant was his assessment that British political imperatives to control borders and leave the jurisdiction of European courts required the UK to go for a “hard Brexit” deal, leaving the UK outside the customs union and the single market. Given this reality, the most valuable outcome of Article 50 talks would be co-ordinated, orderly transition terms that would allow Britain to adjust.
For the EU-27, any transition must be simpler than a final EU-UK trade deal. That means fashioning a transition from existing EU systems: the European Court of Justice, EU laws, EU budget contributions and core EU rights such as the free movement of people. But any bespoke transition cannot be allowed to look better than actual membership.
By contrast, Theresa May, the UK prime minister, is preparing for an election in 2020. That would probably be after Britain leaves — likely to be in 2019 — so potentially in the middle of any transitional period. Yet she will have to reconcile the terms of any deal with two promises she has made to British voters: to leave the jurisdiction of EU courts and to repatriate controls over immigration.
11.18am GMT
Services sector activity jumped to a 17-month high in December as the British economy continues to exhibit signs of resilience in the face of Brexit uncertainty, the Press Association reports.
The closely watched Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reached 56.2 in December, up from 55.2 in November and above economists’ forecasts of 54.7.
A reading above 50 indicates growth.
11.02am GMT
Kezia Dugdale, the Labour leader in Scotland, has used a new year interview with the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland to renew her call for the UK to adopt a federal structure, with Scotland getting more powers. She told the programme:
For me, the big question in 2017 is how we save the Union. I think the United Kingdom is in terrible peril because of a gamble the Tories have forced with Brexit and the SNP’s obsession with independence. So, 2017 has got to be about protecting the Union.
Our country is divided. The way to bring that country back together is by an Act of Union to save the Union. Let’s have a federal solution for the United Kingdom that offers the solution that we need.
I am arguing for a federal solution for the whole of the United Kingdom ... Jeremy Corbyn has already put his support behind a constitutional convention for the United Kingdom.
10.48am GMT
Lord Marland, the Conservative former trade envoy, told the Today programme this morning that he did not think Whitehall had the skills set to conduct a good Brexit negotiation. (See 9.20am.) Later Mats Persson, who worked as David Cameron’s EU adviser in Number 10, told the same programme he disagreed.
My experience is Britain has some of the best civil servants in the world. Whitehall does have the skill set to deliver it. I think the UK government is actually quite far advanced in its plans, there’s been a bit of unfair headlines recently.
I think that of course this is complex, and I’m on the outside now, but there certainly are other civil servants in Whitehall on top of their game. This is about identifying a deal which involves benefits on both sides, both sides have to have something to gain. Britain has some leverage, it’s a massive market.
It was a deal that was far from meaningless, but could we have got more? Maybe. I think played differently, over a longer period of time, we could have achieved more reforms, yes.
10.35am GMT
The Today programme also interviewed Tom Fletcher, a former UK ambassador to Lebanon and a former Number 10 foreign policy adviser, about Sir Tim Barrow. Fletcher said Barrow was “bulletproof”.
It’s the toughest negotiation in our life times and I think [Barrow] is up to it. I have seen him in Brussels. He knows the corridors, he knows the characters.
But actually more importantly I saw him in Moscow where he was incredibly resilient as ambassador there, dealing with [Vladimir] Putin in a very testing time in our relationship and Tim had a reputation of being bulletproof out there.
I think people feel that the scale of the challenge is enormous. But we’ve got a lot of our best people on it. I think people get a bit fed up of some of the coverage that says why aren’t we being more public with the plans. Muhammad Ali didn’t brief everyone in advance on the Rumble in the Jungle [his boxing victory over George Foreman].
Ex amb @TFletcher tells #BBCR4today that Ali didn't "brief everyone on Rumble in the Jungle". But a) he wasn't democratically accountable
b) I'm pretty sure everyone knew what Ali's ultimate objective was
10.11am GMT
On the Today programme Sir Robert Cooper, a former Foreign Office diplomat who has also worked for the EU, welcomed Sir Tim Barrow’s appointment. Asked about him, Cooper said:
He’s honest, he’s tough, he’s someone how knows Europe very well, although not so much the community part. He’s done lots of foreign policy in Europe ... At least we’ve got somebody, he may not know all the technical stuff, but he knows how Europe works in terms of dealing with people.
I think at the moment there is a policy vacuum. It’s not surprising. This is a gigantic enterprise that’s been taken on and needs a lot of thought. I think at the moment probably the atmosphere is difficult because people don’t know where they are going. You need to have a sense of direction.
9.44am GMT
Lord Livingston, the former chief executive of BT and a trade minister in David Cameron’s government, was on the Today programme talking about Brexit. He said that negotiating a trade deal with the EU would take time.
First of all of course we have to actually sort out what’s broadly going to be our relationship with the EU. Are we going to be in the single market? Probably not. Are we going to be in the customs union?
Then you can turn your attention to other countries but the trade deal for instance with Canada still isn’t fully implemented and that’s about seven years on.
9.34am GMT
Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, has got a new job.
New for 2017: Nigel Farage to host a nightly show on LBC. Starting this Monday https://t.co/UXocGmqlxZ http://pic.twitter.com/KwSs8Vjrpr
Am a big fan of LBC but it's not exactly a job in the White House, is it? https://t.co/4802OrdaPJ
9.20am GMT
Yesterday Theresa May acted swiftly to fill the vacancy created by the surprise resignation of Britain’s ambassador to the EU. Here’s the Guardian’s version of the story.
Related: Sir Tim Barrow appointed as Britain's EU ambassador
Theresa May has moved swiftly to calm tensions over the resignation of Sir Ivan Rogers as Britain’s ambassador to the EU by appointing career diplomat Sir Tim Barrow as his replacement.
The decision means the prime minister has ignored calls to appoint a wholehearted Brexiter, in a move that will reassure those in the civil service who feared the role would be politicised.
My fear is that Whitehall as a whole has really not got the skill set to deliver a really hard-nosed negotiation and I think we have really got to up skill in that area to do it.
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