#market board

[nobutakafairclough]

Episode 17: Market Universalis

Thank you for all of the love you have shown episode 16. I am happy to announce that episode 17 will be out September 8th and will feature karashiiro. creator of Universalis. The amazing market board aid!

[neunhofferart]

Regarding the DarkJurassic feature the thing that was up today, someone said the images were AI... I know its supposed to be a conspiracy website full of cuckoo's but please say they got an actual human artist or artists to create it? 🙏🙏😭😭

I'm pretty sure our human design team made all of those-- they were hanging up around the office for years lol. The intent was definitely to make them look like the sort of quick photoshop clickbait thumbnails and advertisements you see on real shady websites on purpose. And the reason there is no legible text is because we had no budget to write copy (you have to pay someone to write all the writing that appears on screen and that's why it usually shows up as gibberish in JWCC and JWCT unless it's REALLY important). I think those images were intended to be possible webpage designs that could have appeared in the actual show in like... the background of a shot or something.

[mostlysignssomeportents]

Insurance companies are making climate risk worse

Tomorrow (November 29), I'm at NYC's Strand Books with my novel The Lost Cause, a solarpunk tale of hope and danger that Rebecca Solnit called "completely delightful."

Conservatives may deride the "reality-based community" as a drag on progress and commercial expansion, but even the most noxious pump-and-dump capitalism is supposed to remain tethered to reality by two unbreakable fetters: auditing and insurance:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality-based_community

No matter how much you value profit over ethics or human thriving, you still need honest books – even if you never show those books to the taxman or the marks. Even an outright scammer needs to know what's coming in and what's going out so they don't get caught in a liquidity trap (that is, "broke"), or overleveraged ("broke," again) exposed to market changes (you guessed it: "broke").

Unfortunately for capitalism, auditing is on its deathbed. The market is sewn up by the wildly corrupt and conflicted Big Four accounting firms that are the very definition of too big to fail/too big to jail. They keep cooking books on behalf of management to the detriment of investors. These double-entry fabrications conceal rot in giant, structurally important firms until they implode spectacularly and suddenly, leaving workers, suppliers, customers and investors in a state of utter higgeldy-piggeldy:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/11/29/great-andersens-ghost/#mene-mene-bezzle

In helping corporations defraud institutional investors, auditors are facilitating mass scale millionaire-on-billionaire violence, and while that may seem like the kind of fight where you're happy to see either party lose, there are inevitably a lot of noncombatants in the blast radius. Since the Enron collapse, the entire accounting sector has turned to quicksand, which is a big deal, given that it's what industrial capitalism's foundations are anchored to. There's a reason my last novel was a thriller about forensic accounting and Big Tech:

https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250865847/red-team-blues

But accounting isn't the only bedrock that's been reduced to slurry here in capitalism's end-times. The insurance sector is meant to be an unshakably rational enterprise, imposing discipline on the rest of the economy. Sure, your company can do something stupid and reckless, but the insurance bill will be stonking, sufficient to consume the expected additional profits.

But the crash of 2008 made it clear that the largest insurance companies in the world were capable of the same wishful thinking, motivated reasoning, and short-termism that they were supposed to prevent in every other business. Without AIG – one of the largest insurers in the world – there would have been no Great Financial Crisis. The company knowingly underwrote hundreds of billions of dollars in junk bonds dressed up as AAA debt, and required a $180b bailout.

Still, many of us have nursed an ember of hope that the insurance sector would spur Big Finance and its pocket governments into taking the climate emergency seriously. When rising seas and wildfires and zoonotic plagues and famines and rolling refugee crises make cities, businesses, and homes uninsurable risks, then insurers will stop writing policies and the doom will become undeniable. Money talks, bullshit walks.

But while insurers have begun to withdraw from the most climate-endangered places (or crank up premiums), the net effect is to decrease climate resilience and increase risk, creating a "climate risk doom loop" that Advait Arun lays out brilliantly for Phenomenal World:

https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/the-doom-loop/

Part of the problem is political: as people move into high-risk areas (flood-prone coastal cities, fire-threatened urban-wildlife interfaces), politicians are pulling out all the stops to keep insurers from disinvesting in these high-risk zones. They're loosening insurance regs, subsidizing policies, and imposing "disaster risk fees" on everyone in the region.

But the insurance companies themselves are simply not responding aggressively enough to the rising risk. Climate risk is correlated, after all: when everyone in a region is at flood risk, then everyone will be making a claim on the insurance company when the waters come. The insurance trick of spreading risk only works if the risks to everyone in that spread aren't correlated.

Perversely, insurance companies are heavily invested in fossil fuel companies, these being reliable money-spinners where an insurer can park and grow your premiums, on the assumption that most of the people in the risk pool won't file claims at the same time. But those same fossil-fuel assets produce the very correlated risk that could bring down the whole system.

The system is in trouble. US claims from "natural disasters" are topping $100b/year – up from $4.6b in 2000. Home insurance premiums are up (21%!), but it's not enough, especially in drowning Florida and Texas (which is also both roasting and freezing):

https://grist.org/economics/as-climate-risks-mount-the-insurance-safety-net-is-collapsing/

Insurers who put premiums up to cover this new risk run into a paradox: the higher premiums get, the more risk-tolerant customers get. When flood insurance is cheap, lots of homeowners will stump up for it and create a big, uncorrelated risk-pool. When premiums skyrocket, the only people who buy flood policies are homeowners who are dead certain their house is gonna get flooded out and soon. Now you have a risk pool consisting solely of highly correlated, high risk homes. The technical term for this in the insurance trade is: "bad."

But it gets worse: people who decide not to buy policies as prices go up may be doing their own "motivated reasoning" and "mispricing their risk." That is, they may decide, "If I can't afford to move, and I can't afford to sell my house because it's in a flood-zone, and I can't afford insurance, I guess that means I'm going to live here and be uninsured and hope for the best."

This is also bad. The amount of uninsured losses from US climate disaster "dwarfs" insured losses:

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/hurricanes-floods-bring-120-billion-insurance-losses-2022-2023-01-09/

Here's the doom-loop in a nutshell:

As carbon emissions continue to accumulate, more people are put at risk of climate disaster, while the damages from those disasters intensifies. Vulnerability will drive disinvestment, which in turn exacerbates vulnerability.

Also: the browner and poorer you are, the worse you have it: you are impacted "first and worst":

https://www.climaterealityproject.org/frontline-fenceline-communities

As Arun writes, "Tinkering with insurance markets will not solve their real issues—we must patch the gaping holes in the financial system itself." We have to end the loop that sees the poorest places least insured, and the loss of insurance leading to abandonment by people with money and agency, which zeroes out the budget for climate remediation and resiliency where it is most needed.

The insurance sector is part of the finance industry, and it is disinvesting in climate-endagered places and instead doubling down on its bets on fossil fuels. We can't rely on the insurance sector to discipline other industries by generating "price signals" about the true underlying climate risk. And insurance doesn't just invest in fossil fuels – they're also a major buyer of municipal and state bonds, which means they're part of the "bond vigilante" investors whose decisions constrain the ability of cities to raise and spend money for climate remediation.

When American cities, territories and regions can't float bonds, they historically get taken over and handed to an unelected "control board" who represents distant creditors, not citizens. This is especially true when the people who live in those places are Black or brown – think Puerto Rico or Detroit or Flint. These control board administrators make creditors whole by tearing the people apart.

This is the real doom loop: insurers pull out of poor places threatened by climate disasters. They invest in the fossil fuels that worsen those disasters. They join with bond vigilantes to force disinvestment from infrastructure maintenance and resiliency in those places. Then, the next climate disaster creates more uninsured losses. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Finance and insurance are betting heavily on climate risk modeling – not to avert this crisis, but to ensure that their finances remain intact though it. What's more, it won't work. As climate effects get bigger, they get less predictable – and harder to avoid. The point of insurance is spreading risk, not reducing it. We shouldn't and can't rely on insurance creating price-signals to reduce our climate risk.

But the climate doom-loop can be put in reverse – not by market spending, but by public spending. As Arun writes, we need to create "a global investment architecture that is safe for spending":

https://tanjasail.wordpress.com/2023/10/06/a-world-safe-for-spending/

Public investment in emissions reduction and resiliency can offset climate risk, by reducing future global warming and by making places better prepared to endure the weather and other events that are locked in by past emissions. A just transition will "loosen liquidity constraints on investment in communities made vulnerable by the financial system."

Austerity is a bad investment strategy. Failure to maintain and improve infrastructure doesn't just shift costs into the future, it increases those costs far in excess of any rational discount based on the time value of money. Public institutions should discipline markets, not the other way around. Don't give Wall Street a veto over our climate spending. A National Investment Authority could subordinate markets to human thriving:

https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/industrial-policy-requires-public-not-just-private-equity/

Insurance need not be pitted against human survival. Saving the cities and regions whose bonds are held by insurance companies is good for those companies: "Breaking the climate risk doom loop is the best disaster insurance policy money can buy."

I found Arun's work to be especially bracing because of the book I'm touring now, The Lost Cause, a solarpunk novel set in a world in which vast public investment is being made to address the climate emergency that is everywhere and all at once:

https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250865939/the-lost-cause

There is something profoundly hopeful about the belief that we can do something about these foreseeable disasters – rather than remaining frozen in place until the disaster is upon us and it's too late. As Rebecca Solnit says, inhabiting this place in your imagination is "Completely delightful. Neither utopian nor dystopian, it portrays life in SoCal in a future woven from our successes (Green New Deal!), failures (climate chaos anyway), and unresolved conflicts (old MAGA dudes). I loved it."

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/11/28/re-re-reinsurance/#useless-price-signals

[market-board-baron]

[3416]

1634 make me genuinely ill because there are just.... so few bonds in this sport where you look at them and go. that was 100% meant to happen like that and no one else could've slotted in. like yea, so many of players across the league form close bonds and friendships bc that's the nature of spending a whole part of your life sharing a common goal and space when you're like.. doing this team activity... and guys are constantly befriending ppl and moving on... but auston and mitch it's like. it's almost like THEY feel that they were supposed to have that bond... and go out of their way to reaffirm it at every turn... like they met and got along and loved each other immediately and were so excited to get to play hockey together only to NOT get to for a long while and while they waited, they ??? developed all these rituals. and these things together... their personal routines, things to communicate to each other that they have each other's backs and are building each other into their visions and superstitions and dreams, some of which we'll never know about (unless they'd so kindly like to tell us a la mitch's interview with cabbie where he says maybe some day he'll share the gifts auston's gotten him w the world. tell all book when mitch).. but their gloves and their handshakes and their warmups and even the way they walk into road games and it's jsut. like it's friendship, for sure, obviously. they get along off the ice and make each other laugh the most and have a good time, but it's also the inextricable linking of their own careers. BY THEIR OWN DOING. like they want their names jotted next to each other and that's PART of the chase for this greater goal. yes, they would have been talked about in tandem anyway bc they're out here being the best leafs ever and hitting milestones like 500 points.... 600 points... just weeks apart from each other season to season. but also it's their commitment to each other that makes them talked about too. it's commentators saying they love to play together bc they can see it. they've heard them talk about it. they watch it. "marner to matthews" "matthews to marner". they're always gonna know where each other are.... it makes me . feel. violent with love, lol. makes me feel like some things are definitely meant to be.

[joiedecombat]

@alixennial encouraged, so here it is. Welcome to Raine's new house in Empyreum!

Under a cut because this is a lot of screencaps. 😭

There are a few Far East touches in the garden, including the guardian shiisa statues for the entrance. (The firefly cages were made using alchemy; real fireflies would never survive Ishgard's climate.)

This corner is best enjoyed at twilight.

As the Professor demonstrated, however, the outdoor bath is nice any time.

Best not to stay outdoors after, though, especially with night falling.

Welcome to the front parlor!

The upstairs is mostly used for entertaining guests, and the style is primarily Ishgardian, though there are Hannish and Far Eastern touches as well.

Let me be clear: @alixennial did by far most of the work designing the parlor. I made some adjustments and filled in the east wall, but the majority of what you see upstairs is her work. Including this lovely little music corner, with Aymeric's portrait overlooking Raine's harp.

My contribution, aside from the staggered shelf of collected odds and ends, was mainly putting in this cozy little window seat for watching the fish.

Their names are Ichiko and Niko.

Downstairs. The twins preside over the bottom of the staircase.

There's more Hannish style downstairs, compared to the parlor. This is where Raine lives and works, a more personal space reserved for herself, Aymeric, and their family and close friends.

A combination library, living room, and personal study, with a loom tucked away on the loft in a small crafting workspace.

The door leads to the bedroom and bath.

Bath to one side, with a screen and a curtain for extra privacy.

Bedroom to the other, with the fireplace between to keep the room warmed.

Rounding out the tour, back outside and past the outdoor bath...

The raised deck offers a view of the eastern skyline, with Empyreum spread out below.

And, to the north, a perfect vantage to watch the Moonfire Faire fireworks.

So, that's the tour! Thanks for coming along.

If you should happen to visit, do make sure to leave a note in the book. ❤️

[adtothebone]

To whoever did the Tension game logo design back in 1970 or so, you did a perfect job.

[simpingforcys]

A WIP but behold, the WIR/King Candy shrine so far. Would of waited until my stickers from Japan came in but they haven’t found my package in 3 weeks, so who knows how long that’ll take.

A year ago I never would have expected to love this movie and character as much as I did. It gives me so much comfort and joy. 🍬👑💕

[snowynightlightss]

I shouldn’t be allowed on any game that has a economy on it

[ewingstan]

Among the most fantastical of the worldbuilding details Ward posits is a universe where board games characters are equally likely to be marketed as video game characters. Oh brave new world that has such tabletop IP in't.

[corvidaedream]

trying to decorate my room in my new apartment less like the room of a little girl than previous iterations, so im trying to pair my frillier dolls with, like. antique knife and tintype of an old man. and now this shelf looks like an i spy page.

[froginamoodboard]

Victuuri date moodboard

Requested by: anon

x x x x x x x x x

[night-market-if]

Hi!

Question ,what would be the Ros’ favorite board game(or game in general) also would they be competitive.

I'm going to throw out some boardgames that you guys may or may not have played or heard of before.

Belladonna: Mysterium

Gabriel: Castle Panic

Milo: Throw throw your Burrito. And then when someone points out that its not a board game he'll go with Legendary. Most likely Firefly edition.

Hazel: Quacks of Quendlinburg

Mal: Lords of Waterdeep

[niobiumao3]

The things is, it's not exactly surprising that capitalism and line go up has resulted in sequels and nostalgia bait rather than new, interesting ideas or at a minimum extensions into new territory of the existing franchises and worlds. Companies like Disney want a guaranteed money maker, they don't want to try something new and have it not make them tons of cash. They're addicted to it, in fact, to the point that any pushback from an audience who dislikes a new idea has them cancelling the project and ditching the idea entirely. It's ridiculous. We're lucky Star Trek Discovery--which I didn't like but had a good sized fan base who loved it, so was by all measures a success--went on as long as it did. That sort of 'largely new property' is rare these days.

This is the main down side of Lucas giving up SW; as much as Disney has done great things, Lucas would not give up on a project just because it had detractors. That's how we got as much of TCW and TBB; he kept at that thread and formed a fan base for it. No one wants to do that anymore. If something isn't an instant success and lauded it is dropped in favor of a new installment in a stale, long-spent IP because there's a ready made audience.

Which leaves us stuck with wall to wall Grogu merch and Toy Story 5 but the Acolyte cancelled. We wind up with awesome new characters like Phee shafted in their own show to bring back pre-existing characters which already had fans. We get, well, what we're getting.

Tired making.