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thecherrypicks: #Yellowjackets star @courtneyeaton on feeling protective over her character Lottie. 🖤🐝 Season 2 of @yellowjackets is now airing on @showtime! Watch #CherryPicks’ @megjomccarthy’s full interview with Courtney at the 🔗 in our bio! #yellowjackets🐝 #yellowjacketsshowtime #yellowjacketsedit #courtneyeaton #courtneyeatonedit #lottieyellowjackets #showtime #womeninfilmandtv #womenintv #tvscenes #tvquotes #tvquote #whattowatch #actorinterview #tvreview #tvcritic
Courtney Eaton via thecherrypicks on Instagram, 04/23/2023.
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When you get a taste, can you tell me what’s my flavor?
requested\ yes
a/n: i got a request for a Tai slowburn, so you know i had to make it a homoerotic friendship, hope you enjoy it💞
warnings: best friends longing for each other, talk about exes, a little bit of angst
summary: You and Taissa were just friends, right?
Taissa was your best friend, nothing more, nothing less. You were on the same soccer team and you did everything together, but that’s normal, right?
Anyhow, her birthday was this Saturday and you made it your personal mission to let her have the best birthday ever, the one she’ll always remember. The whole squad was in on it, you already agreed with Lottie to have it at her huge ass house, nicely decorated. Nat and Van were gonna take care of the booze, and Jackie and Shauna were on food. You had the hardest task of all, and that was to convince her to show up. You’d thrown her a rager, with the whole school invited basically, but it wasn’t any good if she wasn’t there. Now, she loves parties, big ones, but convincing her to casually go to Lottie’s house on her birthday? That was gonna be tough, since Tai is known to be stubborn.
“How do you think i should convince her to come?” You asked Lottie, who was sat next to you at our lunch table
“What, you haven’t told her yet?” Lottie asked a little shocked
“No, of course not! I want it to be a surprise!” You said like it was the most obvious thing in the world
“Jesus Christ…I have no idea. But you better figure it the fuck out, or it’ll all have been for nothing!” Lottie said annoyed
“I kno-“
“What will have been for nothing?” Taissa asked, appearing behind us
“Uhh, my studying for the math quiz, if I don’t do well” Worst lie in history. Lottie seemed to think so as well when she had to hold back a laugh
“I’ll meet you guys later” Lot said getting up, the tension could’ve been cut with a knife
Tai sat across me, you kept eating and refusing to look her in the eye.
“Is there something you’re not telling me?” Tai asked knowing you couldn’t lie for too long
“No, everything is good…I mean not like good, just like…normal.” Good job!
“Mhm…and I definitely didn’t hear you talking about a surprise, right?” She asked staring right at my soul
“Fine, God I threw you a party…and it was supposed to be a surprise.” You said defeated
“Wha- Wait like a legit party?” Tai asked
“Yeah It’s at Lottie's, I made like a thousand written and copied invitations for our entire class and it said ‘Don’t mention to Taissa’ with these big red letters” When you told her about it you sounded kinda dorky to yourself, but it didn’t seem that way to her at all
“Don’t shy away, that’s so sweet of you! And I’ll totally act surprised in front of the others if you want me to.” She said holding your hand on the table gently
“Oh will you, reallyyy?” You asked her, you really wanted the girls to think she was mesmerized by your oh so hard work
“Yeah, sure.” She said not letting go of your hand
That was a success, but you couldn’t shake the feeling of only one thing.
Her hand was so soft
You just wanted to hold it forever. But that’s normal for best friends, right?
Yet there you were, supposed to be focusing on a test while thinking of Taissa’s hands
When school was done, you got in your car, of course you were giving Tai a ride, so you waited for her. It is safe to say when you saw her exiting school you were not happy. She was walking with Van who she used to date. In her defense they did break up on good terms, but you still didn’t like it. But that’s normal, you were just looking out for your friend, right?
“Hey sweetie” Tai said opening the passenger seat door and getting in
“Hi love…so what are you gonna wear tomorrow?” You asked her in anticipation
“Well I was thinking that orange dress, with the headband, they match” She said touching up her gloss, looking in her compact mirror
“I’m not sure whether to wear a dress at all.”
“You should, you always wear baggy clothes.” Tai said
“Why does that matter?” You asked her as you started to drive
“Well you look super hot when you dress up.”
She was leaning her head against the seat looking right at you. At this point you were really hoping she wouldn’t notice the slight redness that spread across your cheeks. I mean it’s still normal to blush when your friend compliments you…
As you got home you basically tried on your entire closet. You really wanted her to be impressed by your look, and didn’t even realize it had been hours. How is it possible you have quite literally nothing to wear? However in a time of crisis you dialed the first person who came to mind for fashion advice.
“Jackie! I need serious help.” You leaned against the wall, whining to her on the phone
“What’s going on?” She didn’t even need to ask who called, that kinda humbled you
“I need fashion advice! Like what the fuck do I wear for Tai to think I’m hot?” That last part must’ve just slipped out…
“What? Why would you want Tai to think you’re hot?” She asked, sounding genuinely confused
“Just forget I said that, but pleaseeeee Jackie You have to lend me something!”
“Fine, fine…I’ll give you the red dress, the one I gave Shauna some time ago”
“The boob dress?”
“That would be the one…”
“Okay, you’re the best. Love ya mwah mwah” You said, not waiting for her to say anything before hanging up
You still couldn’t shake the feeling of quite a few things. Why were you so obsessed with Taissa thinking you look good? And why were you so envious of Van, it didn’t make any sense to you. You kept thinking about these things until you fell asleep and the next day subtly rolled around. You were woken up by the doorbell at around 10am, and your mother calling you over, telling you that it’s for you.
“Jackie, hey” You said, opening the door and seeing the paper bag in her hand
“Hey, I came to drop off the dress…you look like shit, did you sleep okay?” She asked bluntly
“Gee, thanks…I slept okay I just have a lot on my mind.” Well you weren’t lying
“If you say so, here you go.” She said handing me the bag
“Thanks. Wanna come in?” You didn’t really want her to, but you did ask her to be polite
“No I have to go to back home, my mom is having people over for brunch…I’ll see you tonight.”
“Okay, bye.”
As the day slowly but agonizingly passed, you started getting ready. You did your makeup all nice, same for your hair, and were genuinely amazed by how good your boobs looked in that dress. Now you were supposed to pick up Tai.
Why were you so nervous over it
Nevertheless, you made it to her house, watching her exit her home. You jaw almost went slack on the floor because of how beautiful she looked. How was it even possible?
“Happy birthday Tai!” You squealed when she entered the car
“Thank you love” She said putting on her seatbelt and smiling at you
“ I’m so excited to get fucked up” You said as you started driving over to Lottie’s
“Yeah well not too fucked up, you know how you get” She said mockingly
“I’m not that bad at all!” You try to defend yourself
“Dude you are so lightweight.” She said like it was the most obvious thing in the world
You had a small pit in your stomach as you parked by the house. It was a gnawing feeling that something was gonna happen and ruin your mood. But for the time being you chose to ignore it and make sure Tai has fun. She played off the fake surprise perfectly, and you lot got to partying your asses off.
But that gross gut feeling turned out to be true. The more she drank the more she hung out with Van. They were all touchy and it was making you sick. Drink after drink you started losing your mind, and danced with the first person who asked you to do so. Little did you know Taissa was on the verge of tears when she saw you grinding against someone else.
You didn’t even know how you felt anymore. Everything was fuzzy and you couldn’t make out a single familiar face. That is, until you saw Natalie sitting by the bonfire with her burnout friends, deciding to go and recollect yourself there.
“Hey Nat”
“Oh, hi” She said. You could see she was high off her ass.
“You havin’ fun?” She asked
“No.” Natalie was easy to talk to, especially when you were both out of it
“Oh, what happened?” She asked nonchalantly, but you knew she did care
“I think I’m in love with my best friend.” You couldn’t believe you actually said it out loud. After all this time denying it to yourself and everyone around you, it felt a bit freeing
“Yeah no shit” She said with a small chuckle
“That obvious?”
“…Yeah” Nat said confronting you
“You should drink some water”
“So should you”
“Touchè”
___________________________________________
After sobering up a little you found yourself playing truth or dare with about 20 kids. Tai and Van were still attached at the hip, it made you wanna throw up.
“Okay, birthday girl. Truth or dare?”
You didn’t really catch who asked her
“Hmm…dare” Taissa said holding her red solo cup and taking a sip of her beer
“I dare you…to make out with your little girlfriend”
Van, they were talking about Van. Your heart flipped as you silently prayed she wouldn’t go through with it.
“Dare’s a dare” She said as she kissed her ex. You couldn’t even take it, so you ran off to your car, sitting in it and weeping for a few minutes until you heard someone come in
___________________________________________ Taissa’s POV
I kissed Van and it felt almost nauseating. She was into it, eveyone was. Kinky teenage boys screaming for us, which made it so much worse. As i finally pulled away i noticed that y/n was gone. I sat there not sure what to do. I went to the kitchen to get a drink and take my mind off of her.
“Well you successfully made her jealous” Van’s voice.
“What?” I asked, knowing full well that was what I tried to do
“Your best friend, the one who basically ran off?” Van said
“I wasn’t trying to-“ I try to defend myself
“Look Tai, her car’s still out front. Do what you gotta do” Van said and her words cut deep as a knife. I basically ran over to her, as i found her with ruined mascara and that awful, sad look in her eyes.
___________________________________________ Your POV
“Taissa?” You said as you saw her with a worried look on her face
“Listen, I was such an idiot for doing that, but I’m here now, okay?” She said completely out of breath
“Tai what are you-“
You were cut off by her lips pressing against yours. She captured you in the sweetest kiss you had ever exchanged, the perfect first one. As her arms were around your neck, your hands found her waist, pulling her flush against you
“That.”
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For New Mexico State football, the time is now. Like, this very second. Hurry.
With all sorts of uncertain futures, NMSU’s scrapping the patient plan.
This preview originally published February 9 and has since been updated.
From last year’s NMSU preview:
There is no short road in New Mexico, only long. And fourth-year head coach Doug Martin has acknowledged that. Though he only has a 7-29 record, Martin has attempted to lay a foundation. He has taken on few transfers, preferring to build with five-year players. And in 2016, his squad will boast experience.
The program is spending money and figuring out ways to to allay the costs of other schools traveling to Las Cruces. And the fact that the team was still young as hell last season allowed the school to say "Look at what we're building" instead of "Look at what we've built." The former doesn't require proof of success.
The Aggies' FBS membership survived the dissolution of the WAC as a football conference and a brief stint as an FBS independent. Doing so again would be dicey, but one thing is certain: 2016 would be a great time for NMSU to be good at football.
Breaking: New Mexico State was not good at football in 2016.
From basically the moment last year’s preview went up, things began to go wrong. NMSU and Idaho were voted out of the Sun Belt, leaving the school with the awkward choice of moving down to FCS (like Idaho) or setting out as an independent.
Larry Rose III, the face of the franchise, got hurt and missed the first few games. Then, after beating rival New Mexico to move to 1-1, the Aggies cratered and lost eight of 10.
NMSU went 3-9 in 2016 just as it went 3-9 in 2015. Since 2005, the Aggies have averaged 2.6 wins. They have averaged 2.5 in four years under Doug Martin.
It’s unfortunate, because Martin was attempting the patient route. That’s always commendable. He wasn’t raking in JUCO recruits like Paul Petrino did at Idaho, and he wasn’t taking on loads of transfers; he was content with slowly building. That takes a while, but you are more likely to build something sustainable when you’re pulling in longer-term pieces.
The problem is that, if the strategy fails, that also takes a while. Impatience might have been the way to go, right? Idaho did just win a bowl game, after all, right?
Regardless, the slow build is no more. Martin got a fifth year in Las Cruces — his contract expires at the end of 2017 — and it’s all or nothing. On National Signing Day, he announced 25 new Aggies, and 13 of them are JUCO transfers. Seven enrolled early.
There were a couple of reasons for doing this. The first is obvious: the Aggies needed immediate help.
Beyond that, recruiting JUCO guys meant less resistance. Other schools were using NMSU’s uncertain future against it when it comes to recruiting five-year guys. The school is sticking it out at the FBS level, presumably in the hopes that the next time Conference USA or the Mountain West gets plucked via conference realignment, it finds NMSU in good enough shape to bring aboard.
Thanks to the Big 12’s most recent decision not to expand, that appears to be a long shot. But it’s all you’ve got if you’re NMSU.
Last year, top receiver Teldrick Morgan left in the spring to take a graduate transfer to Maryland, where he led the Terps in receptions in 2016 and left a smoking crater in the NMSU receiving corps. For all we know, there could be more surprise transfers this coming spring. But barring that, the Aggie two-deep will be loaded with upperclassmen, especially if quarterback Tyler Rogers receives an extra year of eligibility as planned. (He missed almost all of 2015, plus the end of 2016, with injury.)
Rose is scheduled to return, as are the top five receivers, three offensive line starters (along with four others with starting experience and an entire lineup's worth of JUCOs), five of six defensive linemen, three of four linebackers (plus a bunch of JUCOs), the top seven defensive backs, and all kickers and return men.
Martin has more size, experience, and options than he did a year ago, and one thing is certain: 2017 would be a great time for NMSU to be good at football.
2016 in review
2016 NMSU statistical profile.
Like ULM, NMSU’s season was defined by games against lesser teams. The Aggies had nothing to offer against the better teams on the schedule, but against teams ranked worse than 80th in S&P+, they were competitive. And when you’re in the Sun Belt, you play quite a few teams ranked worse than 80th.
NMSU vs. top 80 (0-5): Avg. score: Opp 49, NMSU 17 | Yards per play: Opp 7.5, NMSU 5.3 (-2.2) | Avg. percentile performance: 14% (offense 42%, defense 17%)
NMSU vs. No. 81 and worse (3-4): Avg. score: Opp 32, NMSU 30 | Yards per play: Opp 5.9, NMSU 5.5 (-0.4) | Avg. percentile performance: 34% (offense 47%, defense 38%)
Playing lesser opponents had more of a positive impact on NMSU’s defense than its offense. The Aggies did average 0.2 more yards per play and 13 more points per game against the worse-than-80th batch, but they also allowed 1.6 fewer yards per play and allowed 17 fewer points per game.
Defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani wanted to be aggressive, especially with his linebackers, but when the Aggies couldn’t compete athletically, it backfired terribly. Spaz has more options to work with this year.
Offense
Sometimes what you’re good at isn’t what you want to be good at. Consider:
Full advanced stats glossary.
This chart tells you NMSU was quite good at running and creating downfield opportunities, especially when Rose was healthy.
After erupting for nearly 7 yards per carry in 2015, Rose labored through the first half of 2016. He missed the first three games, then averaged just 4.1 yards per carry in his first four games of action. But down the stretch, he was Rose again. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry and 124 yards per game over the final four contests, which included a 40-point romp over Texas State and a near-upset of bowl team South Alabama.
The run was still a relative strength when Rose wasn't humming, though. The Aggies ranked 41st in Rushing S&P+ and 119th in Passing S&P+. Tyler Rogers and backup QB Conner Cramer combined to rush 9.3 times per game (not including sacks) for 6.7 yards per carry. Meanwhile, back Xavier Hall wasn't explosive but rushed for at least five yards on more than 46 percent of his carries.
That chart also tells you NMSU was not very good at throwing the football. This chart, meanwhile, tells you NMSU threw the ball more than it ran.
NMSU’s rushing success rate was higher than its passing success rate in 10 of 12 games, no matter the health of Rose, Rogers, or anybody else. One can understand the general need for balance, and deficits can lead to you passing more even if the data filters out garbage time. Still, however the Aggies reached this tendency, it didn’t help them a whole lot.
Barring transfer or an unexpected decision about Rogers' eligibility, the key players are all back. When healthy, Rose is one of the most exciting backs in the country; it's unclear whether he's got a viable backup, though, with Hall gone.
Meanwhile, Rogers has a variety of weapons -- large (6'6 senior Jaleel Scott), medium (X-receiver Gregory Hogan), and small (slot receivers O.J. Clark and Izaiah Lottie) -- at his disposal even if he's asked to throw too much. And while the line has to replace a solid center in Anthony McMeans, both tackles are promising sophomores, and the JUCO reinforcements are on their way.
NMSU has ranked 88th and 91st in Off. S&P+ over the last two years, and that’s despite the iffy balance and Rose’s injury. With a little more rushing and better injuries luck, this should at least be a top-80 unit, maybe top-70.
Defense
A team with a top-70 offense can win some games as long as the defense isn’t a total liability. In 2015, NMSU ranked 124th in Def. S&P+, and Martin brought in a ringer.
After a solid run as defensive coordinator for Virginia (he was there when the Cavaliers advanced to No. 1 in the country in 1990) and the CFL's Winnipeg Blue Bombers (two Grey Cup appearances) and Calgary Stampeders (a third Grey Cup), Spaziani created one of the most consistently sturdy defenses in the country from 1999 to 2008 at Boston College. The Penn State product crafted play-making lines and tackling-machine linebackers, and he was successful enough that he got the head coaching job there when Jeff Jagodzinski flirted with other employers too much.
Spaz didn't do as well as head man. BC's win total fell from eight to seven to four to two over his four seasons, and he was dismissed in 2012. He still has a vision for strong defense, however, and his friend Doug gave him another shot.
NMSU ranked 120th in Def. S&P+ in 2016. You still have to have the pieces, and Spaz didn't find a lot to his liking.
NMSU was active against the run, and it occasionally paid off. Linebackers Rodney Butler, Dalton Herrington, and Terrill Hanks combined for 24 non-sack tackles for loss, and linemen Kourtland Busby [Update: Busby’s no longer with the team] and Stody Bradley pitched in another 10. NMSU ranked 47th in stuff rate and 30th in power success rate and improved from 117th to 87th in Rushing S&P+.
Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Terrill Hanks
That benefits you a lot more when you can stop the pass at least a little bit. The Aggies were 126th in Passing S&P+, allowing 13.1 yards per completion and a 149 passer rating.
If you couldn't pass on NMSU, you were in trouble. In the Aggies' three wins, New Mexico, UL-Lafayette, and Texas State combined to complete just 50 of 93 passes for 531 yards, one touchdown, and six picks. Passer rating: 92.4. But in the Aggies' nine losses, the rating was an astronomical 168.7. It was all or (usually) nothing for the Aggies.
There was blame to spread. The cornerback trio of Shamad Lomax, DeMarcus Owens, and Jared Phipps did combine for 6.5 tackles for loss, four interceptions, and nine breakups, while safeties Jacob Nwangwa and Jaden Wright combined for eight, five, and five, respectively. Wright was also ninth in the country with four forced fumbles.
Still, there were too many breakdowns, and the secondary got absolutely no help from a pass rush that ranked 125th in Adj. Sack Rate. No Aggies recorded more than two sacks, which is incredible. And of the only three guys who recorded even two, two are gone.
That's why a majority of NMSU's JUCO reinforcements are on the defensive side. Spaziani has quite a few new toys, and at each level of the defense.
The line welcomes three-star redshirt freshman tackles Myles Vigne and Darius Anderson [Update: Anderson’s no longer with the team], along with nearly-three-star JUCO end Tre Randle. [Update: The line does add Arizona grad transfer Calvin Allen, who’s played in 18 games.]
The linebacking corps returns Herrington and Hanks, and 2015 leader Derek Ibekwe should be healthy after getting derailed by injury in 2016. Plus, three JUCOs enter the mix, as does star freshman Jaylon Mascorro, a mid-three-star recruit who had offers from Kansas and Houston.
Everybody's scheduled to return in the secondary, and Lomax and Phipps are now sophomores. Plus, four JUCOs, including high-two-star corner Nakota Shepard-Creer, could bolster the two-deep.
As with the offense, it's easy to see the defense improving in 2017. And if there's any semblance of a pass rush, the Aggies' strength in run defense could become a legitimate weapon. But when you haven't ranked higher than 113th in Def. S&P+ since 2009, it's hard to quantify what "improvement" would consist of.
Special Teams
Special teams were also all-or-nothing. Parker Davidson was a solid kicker and kickoffs guy, but punt coverage for Payton Theisler was a disaster: Opponents averaged 15.7 yards per return and scored four touchdowns. That’s horrific. And special teams will be, at best, a wash until coverage improves.
2017 outlook
2017 Schedule & Projection Factors
Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug at Arizona State 58 -22.8 9% 9-Sep at New Mexico 110 -7.6 33% 23-Sep UTEP 126 3.4 58% 30-Sep at Arkansas 32 -28.0 5% TBA Arkansas State 83 -8.0 32% TBA Idaho 119 0.5 51% TBA South Alabama 108 -2.1 45% TBA Troy 79 -10.1 28% TBA at Appalachian State 62 -22.1 10% TBA at Georgia Southern 98 -10.5 27% TBA at Texas State 129 2.9 57% TBA at UL-Lafayette 112 -7.4 33%
Projected S&P+ Rk 124 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 108 / 116 Projected wins 3.9 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -14.0 (119) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 127 / 127 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 1 / -3.5 2016 TO Luck/Game +1.9 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 70% (57%, 83%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 2.6 (0.4)
With no contract for 2018, the time is quite obviously now for Martin at NMSU, and while S&P+ is not optimistic -- let's just say recent history matters significantly in S&P+ projections, and there's not a lot to go by -- the combination of returning production, health, and JUCO infusion could pay off.
If it does, and NMSU is closer to a No. 100 team than a No. 125 team, wins are there for the taking. There are only three guaranteed losses (at Arizona State, at Arkansas, at Appalachian State), four games with projected win probability between 45 and 58 percent, and most importantly, five between 27 and 33 percent. Improve on your projections, and you can get awfully close to six wins.
A bowl in the last year of Sun Belt membership probably wouldn't do anything for NMSU's long-term prospects. The Sun Belt is no longer an option, and the Aggies would need a longer run of success to prove anything to the MWC or Conference USA. Plus, they probably need the MWC or CUSA to get looted for their hypothetical success to even matter.
Still, you can't have a long run of success until you have one year of it. And when you haven't been to a bowl since 1960, well, a single year of success might sound like winning the national title. I admire NMSU for attempting to press forward regardless of obvious reason for hope. Here's to hoping the Aggies are rewarded for it, however briefly.
NMSU preview stats
All preview data to date.
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For New Mexico State football, the time is now. Like, this very second. Hurry.
With all sorts of uncertain futures, NMSU’s scrapping the patient plan.
From last year’s NMSU preview:
There is no short road in New Mexico, only long. And fourth-year head coach Doug Martin has acknowledged that. Though he only has a 7-29 record, Martin has attempted to lay a foundation. He has taken on few transfers, preferring to build with five-year players. And in 2016, his squad will boast experience.
The program is spending money and figuring out ways to to allay the costs of other schools traveling to Las Cruces. And the fact that the team was still young as hell last season allowed the school to say "Look at what we're building" instead of "Look at what we've built." The former doesn't require proof of success.
The Aggies' FBS membership survived the dissolution of the WAC as a football conference and a brief stint as an FBS independent. Doing so again would be dicey, but one thing is certain: 2016 would be a great time for NMSU to be good at football.
Breaking: New Mexico State was not good at football in 2016.
From basically the moment last year’s preview went up, things began to go wrong. NMSU and Idaho were voted out of the Sun Belt, leaving the school with the awkward choice of moving down to FCS (like Idaho) or setting out as an independent.
Larry Rose III, the face of the franchise, got hurt and missed the first few games. Then, after beating rival New Mexico to move to 1-1, the Aggies cratered and lost eight of 10.
NMSU went 3-9 in 2016 just as it went 3-9 in 2015. Since 2005, the Aggies have averaged 2.6 wins. They have averaged 2.5 in four years under Doug Martin.
It’s unfortunate, because Martin was attempting the patient route. That’s always commendable. He wasn’t raking in JUCO recruits like Paul Petrino did at Idaho, and he wasn’t taking on loads of transfers; he was content with slowly building. That takes a while, but you are more likely to build something sustainable when you’re pulling in longer-term pieces.
The problem is that, if the strategy fails, that also takes a while. Impatience might have been the way to go, right? Idaho did just win a bowl game, after all, right?
Regardless, the slow build is no more. Martin got a fifth year in Las Cruces — his contract expires at the end of 2017 — and it’s all or nothing. On National Signing Day, he announced 25 new Aggies, and 13 of them are JUCO transfers. Seven enrolled early.
There were a couple of reasons for doing this. The first is obvious: the Aggies needed immediate help.
Beyond that, recruiting JUCO guys meant less resistance. Other schools were using NMSU’s uncertain future against it when it comes to recruiting five-year guys. The school is sticking it out at the FBS level, presumably in the hopes that the next time Conference USA or the Mountain West gets plucked via conference realignment, it finds NMSU in good enough shape to bring aboard.
Thanks to the Big 12’s most recent decision not to expand, that appears to be a long shot. But it’s all you’ve got if you’re NMSU.
Last year, top receiver Teldrick Morgan left in the spring to take a graduate transfer to Maryland, where he led the Terps in receptions in 2016 and left a smoking crater in the NMSU receiving corps. For all we know, there could be more surprise transfers this coming spring. But barring that, the Aggie two-deep will be loaded with upperclassmen, especially if quarterback Tyler Rogers receives an extra year of eligibility as planned. (He missed almost all of 2015, plus the end of 2016, with injury.)
Rose is scheduled to return, as are the top five receivers, three offensive line starters (along with four others with starting experience and an entire lineup's worth of JUCOs), five of six defensive linemen, three of four linebackers (plus a bunch of JUCOs), the top seven defensive backs, and all kickers and return men.
Martin has more size, experience, and options than he did a year ago, and one thing is certain: 2017 would be a great time for NMSU to be good at football.
2016 in review
2016 NMSU statistical profile.
Like ULM, NMSU’s season was defined by games against lesser teams. The Aggies had nothing to offer against the better teams on the schedule, but against teams ranked worse than 80th in S&P+, they were competitive. And when you’re in the Sun Belt, you play quite a few teams ranked worse than 80th.
NMSU vs. top 80 (0-5): Avg. score: Opp 49, NMSU 17 | Yards per play: Opp 7.5, NMSU 5.3 (-2.2) | Avg. percentile performance: 14% (offense 42%, defense 17%)
NMSU vs. No. 81 and worse (3-4): Avg. score: Opp 32, NMSU 30 | Yards per play: Opp 5.9, NMSU 5.5 (-0.4) | Avg. percentile performance: 34% (offense 47%, defense 38%)
Playing lesser opponents had more of a positive impact on NMSU’s defense than its offense. The Aggies did average 0.2 more yards per play and 13 more points per game against the worse-than-80th batch, but they also allowed 1.6 fewer yards per play and allowed 17 fewer points per game.
Defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani wanted to be aggressive, especially with his linebackers, but when the Aggies couldn’t compete athletically, it backfired terribly. Spaz has more options to work with this year.
Offense
Sometimes what you’re good at isn’t what you want to be good at. Consider:
Full advanced stats glossary.
This chart tells you NMSU was quite good at running and creating downfield opportunities, especially when Rose was healthy.
After erupting for nearly 7 yards per carry in 2015, Rose labored through the first half of 2016. He missed the first three games, then averaged just 4.1 yards per carry in his first four games of action. But down the stretch, he was Rose again. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry and 124 yards per game over the final four contests, which included a 40-point romp over Texas State and a near-upset of bowl team South Alabama.
The run was still a relative strength when Rose wasn't humming, though. The Aggies ranked 41st in Rushing S&P+ and 119th in Passing S&P+. Tyler Rogers and backup QB Conner Cramer combined to rush 9.3 times per game (not including sacks) for 6.7 yards per carry. Meanwhile, back Xavier Hall wasn't explosive but rushed for at least five yards on more than 46 percent of his carries.
That chart also tells you NMSU was not very good at throwing the football. This chart, meanwhile, tells you NMSU threw the ball more than it ran.
NMSU’s rushing success rate was higher than its passing success rate in 10 of 12 games, no matter the health of Rose, Rogers, or anybody else. One can understand the general need for balance, and deficits can lead to you passing more even if the data filters out garbage time. Still, however the Aggies reached this tendency, it didn’t help them a whole lot.
Barring transfer or an unexpected decision about Rogers' eligibility, the key players are all back. When healthy, Rose is one of the most exciting backs in the country; it's unclear whether he's got a viable backup, though, with Hall gone.
Meanwhile, Rogers has a variety of weapons -- large (6'6 senior Jaleel Scott), medium (X-receiver Gregory Hogan), and small (slot receivers O.J. Clark and Izaiah Lottie) -- at his disposal even if he's asked to throw too much. And while the line has to replace a solid center in Anthony McMeans, both tackles are promising sophomores, and the JUCO reinforcements are on their way.
NMSU has ranked 88th and 91st in Off. S&P+ over the last two years, and that’s despite the iffy balance and Rose’s injury. With a little more rushing and better injuries luck, this should at least be a top-80 unit, maybe top-70.
Defense
A team with a top-70 offense can win some games as long as the defense isn’t a total liability. In 2015, NMSU ranked 124th in Def. S&P+, and Martin brought in a ringer.
After a solid run as defensive coordinator for Virginia (he was there when the Cavaliers advanced to No. 1 in the country in 1990) and the CFL's Winnipeg Blue Bombers (two Grey Cup appearances) and Calgary Stampeders (a third Grey Cup), Spaziani created one of the most consistently sturdy defenses in the country from 1999 to 2008 at Boston College. The Penn State product crafted play-making lines and tackling-machine linebackers, and he was successful enough that he got the head coaching job there when Jeff Jagodzinski flirted with other employers too much.
Spaz didn't do as well as head man. BC's win total fell from eight to seven to four to two over his four seasons, and he was dismissed in 2012. He still has a vision for strong defense, however, and his friend Doug gave him another shot.
NMSU ranked 120th in Def. S&P+ in 2016. You still have to have the pieces, and Spaz didn't find a lot to his liking.
NMSU was active against the run, and it occasionally paid off. Linebackers Rodney Butler, Dalton Herrington, and Terrill Hanks combined for 24 non-sack tackles for loss, and linemen Kourtland Busby and Stody Bradley pitched in another 10. NMSU ranked 47th in stuff rate and 30th in power success rate and improved from 117th to 87th in Rushing S&P+.
Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Terrill Hanks
That benefits you a lot more when you can stop the pass at least a little bit. The Aggies were 126th in Passing S&P+, allowing 13.1 yards per completion and a 149 passer rating.
If you couldn't pass on NMSU, you were in trouble. In the Aggies' three wins, New Mexico, UL-Lafayette, and Texas State combined to complete just 50 of 93 passes for 531 yards, one touchdown, and six picks. Passer rating: 92.4. But in the Aggies' nine losses, the rating was an astronomical 168.7. It was all or (usually) nothing for the Aggies.
There was blame to spread. The cornerback trio of Shamad Lomax, DeMarcus Owens, and Jared Phipps did combine for 6.5 tackles for loss, four interceptions, and nine breakups, while safeties Jacob Nwangwa and Jaden Wright combined for eight, five, and five, respectively. Wright was also ninth in the country with four forced fumbles.
Still, there were too many breakdowns, and the secondary got absolutely no help from a pass rush that ranked 125th in Adj. Sack Rate. No Aggies recorded more than two sacks, which is incredible. And of the only three guys who recorded even two, two are gone.
That's why a majority of NMSU's JUCO reinforcements are on the defensive side. Spaziani has quite a few new toys, and at each level of the defense.
The line welcomes three-star redshirt freshman tackles Myles Vigne and Darius Anderson, along with nearly-three-star JUCO end Tre Randle.
The linebacking corps returns Herrington and Hanks, and 2015 leader Derek Ibekwe should be healthy after getting derailed by injury in 2016. Plus, three JUCOs enter the mix, as does star freshman Jaylon Mascorro, a mid-three-star recruit who had offers from Kansas and Houston.
Everybody's scheduled to return in the secondary, and Lomax and Phipps are now sophomores. Plus, four JUCOs, including high-two-star corner Nakota Shepard-Creer, could bolster the two-deep.
As with the offense, it's easy to see the defense improving in 2017. And if there's any semblance of a pass rush, the Aggies' strength in run defense could become a legitimate weapon. But when you haven't ranked higher than 113th in Def. S&P+ since 2009, it's hard to quantify what "improvement" would consist of.
Special Teams
Special teams were also all-or-nothing. Parker Davidson was a solid kicker and kickoffs guy, but punt coverage for Payton Theisler was a disaster: Opponents averaged 15.7 yards per return and scored four touchdowns. That’s horrific. And special teams will be, at best, a wash until coverage improves.
2017 outlook
2017 Schedule & Projection Factors
Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug at Arizona State 58 -22.8 9% 9-Sep at New Mexico 110 -7.6 33% 23-Sep UTEP 126 3.4 58% 30-Sep at Arkansas 32 -28.0 5% TBA Arkansas State 83 -8.0 32% TBA Idaho 119 0.5 51% TBA South Alabama 108 -2.1 45% TBA Troy 79 -10.1 28% TBA at Appalachian State 62 -22.1 10% TBA at Georgia Southern 98 -10.5 27% TBA at Texas State 129 2.9 57% TBA at UL-Lafayette 112 -7.4 33%
Projected S&P+ Rk 124 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 108 / 116 Projected wins 3.9 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -14.0 (119) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 127 / 127 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 1 / -3.5 2016 TO Luck/Game +1.9 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 70% (57%, 83%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 2.6 (0.4)
With no contract for 2018, the time is quite obviously now for Martin at NMSU, and while S&P+ is not optimistic -- let's just say recent history matters significantly in S&P+ projections, and there's not a lot to go by -- the combination of returning production, health, and JUCO infusion could pay off.
If it does, and NMSU is closer to a No. 100 team than a No. 125 team, wins are there for the taking. There are only three guaranteed losses (at Arizona State, at Arkansas, at Appalachian State), four games with projected win probability between 45 and 58 percent, and most importantly, five between 27 and 33 percent. Improve on your projections, and you can get awfully close to six wins.
A bowl in the last year of Sun Belt membership probably wouldn't do anything for NMSU's long-term prospects. The Sun Belt is no longer an option, and the Aggies would need a longer run of success to prove anything to the MWC or Conference USA. Plus, they probably need the MWC or CUSA to get looted for their hypothetical success to even matter.
Still, you can't have a long run of success until you have one year of it. And when you haven't been to a bowl since 1960, well, a single year of success might sound like winning the national title. I admire NMSU for attempting to press forward regardless of obvious reason for hope. Here's to hoping the Aggies are rewarded for it, however briefly.
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