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batsplat · 5 months ago

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jorge martin is just an off-brand motogp version of george russell. both incredible qualifiers, hard racers, have issues sometimes keeping their tyres together, have stayed in a satellite/backmarker team for three years begging the big manufacturer to accept them into the main fold and will randomly decide that they are actually done with race by beefing it into the gravel/walls on the last laps.

this is why ducati did not hire martin, he hasn’t done the power point presentation

strong last line but hm... do I agree with this...

I don't entirely disagree with the profile of racer, though jorge's a bit more in the flame bright and early mould (partly also just because of the different rhythms of those two racing series). he cut his teeth not just on being an exceptional qualifier but also a starter. even though this year, you do kinda have to say pecco's just?? uh?? he's never been a BAD starter but I swear he didn't used to be this good? some of his starts from the second or third row this year have been genuine works of art. this isn't relevant, just needed to mention it. that's part of why jorge does so well at sprints... he's really good at that abbreviated format, where it's just all out from the very start. mr russell was considered quite a poor starter in his williams days (though lbr that may have partly been car characteristics) - the qualifying's very strong and very consistent, but for a while the question was of capitalising off the line. he's got a few more drives that are about working his way through the field... like qatar last year. I just don't really associate jorge with that?

the bottling thing is debatable and we could get into that debate, but like, never mind that. we're leaving sports analysis now and getting back into vibes territory. the thing about jorge is that he has had a competitive bike from the word go. mr russell, whatever you think about how clutch he is or isn't, did not set a foot wrong in terms of making the mercedes case for himself. what happened with him was basically just... a series of unfortunate events that got him stuck in a spectacularly uncompetitive car for three years. got one shot in a good car in said three years (sakhir 2020) and delivered the perfect performance. but jorge!! jorge had 2022!! he blew it!! he did get unlucky with the gp22 vs the gp21 comparison early that season and how bastianini was able to take advantage of the early stage factory spec malaise, and he's far from the only gp22 who was struggling early on (cf one 'pecco bagnaia'). but still, some of his rides that year were. truly horrendous. and the way the whole thing played out left him with a massive chip on the shoulder.... that's the thing, right, I think what's so key about jorge is that sense of grievance, the fact that he was rejected for that factory seat and we're now several years on from that. and it's a really thin line between that being a good thing and a bad thing. like, anything that's a potential source of motivation fundamentally can be helpful, right? in 2007, casey showed up at ducati as not their first choice, kinda a stopgap, and also after yamaha had pulled the plug on a potential contract not once but twice. he has spoken again and again how yamaha and honda's behaviour towards him made him want to show them exactly what they were missing out on. he used that! it was good for him as a competitor that he had something to get worked up over! he's done it throughout his career! but on the flip side, if you're so busy feeling victimised that you're kind of already... primed for failure, then you've got a problem. like, if the takeaway is you're probably screwed anyway because you're being sabotaged by the factory, then even if that were true you're fucked before you start competing. you've already lost in your own head, you've made excuses before you've even started. it's a thin line! thinking the world is out to get you can either be a good way to get yourself to going, or it can be a loser mindset

quickly circling back to georgie boy, my main feeling is that they kinda have a different type of malaise. one is an overthinker and the other is at times very much an under-thinker. grussy actually shares the overthinking trait with his fellow 63 more than anyone else... all three kinda have this fun meeting point of a lot of cockiness and a lot of insecurity - they just balance them in other ways. and russell reminds me more of pecco in that kind of... being constantly thrown up against a Big Legacy of someone you admire, being in the shadow of greats and having to make your own name... you're very much part of a succession plan that leaves you with massive shoes to fill... (though admittedly grussy has also gone through the unenviable experience of getting to work closely with his hero and eventually having most of said hero's fans absolutely despise him. can happen, I suppose.) jorge is a bit more baggage-free. he's very much the main character in his own story, not so much faffing about with the narrative implications of all this shit. more straightforward! if jorge wins, it's about him. if he loses, it's also about him. ducati has been his world for the past few years, to the point where he's gotten a bit parochial about the whole thing. early this season, he was talking like - sure, the championship lead is important, BUT this is also giving him power in contract negotiations!! which... yes, that's true, but also that should be way down the order of priorities my man. jorge martin might be the only person in this universe who... genuinely might be more obsessed with beating pecco than marc? like, beating the marc marquez would be great and all, 8x world champion bla bla, but pecco is his personal antagonist! he's known him for years! that's ducati's golden boy! he needs to beat pecco so badly! there's something really fun about a rivalry where it feels like at least one side's feelings towards the other... kinda go beyond a personal relationship, like at a certain point it becomes about what the other guy Represents. jorge isn't worried about legacy and the shoes he's got to fill and can he truly live up to all those expectations as much as he's worried about himself and also occasionally pecco bagnaia

anyway, I've been thinking about the bottling thing... what jorge said about it earlier's been rattling around in my head since I saw the quote

man, it must be really tough, right? like, you don't know why it's happening... it's not just cockiness - though there is an element of someone who's kinda used to bulldozing his way through problems with sheer obstinacy and stubborn self belief (another distinction with the 63's, who are more introspective and prone to self-flagellation following mistakes). but it's also just... you can't figure out why it's such a fundamental shortcoming of your game! today, from the way pecco and also luca (apparently) were talking about it, it seems like there was something noticeable about how jorge was gradually losing a bit in his control and precision as a result of how the tyres were going off, as a sort of precursor of the fatal error. which... well, it's at least a somewhat understandable mistake, because it comes from pressure? it's not just the tyres going off each time - the mugello sprint crash was lap four, jerez was lap ten. but an interesting thing about his big errors this year is that they have all come as a result of serious pressure - as a result of pecco directly behind him in the case of jerez and sachsenring and like... in anticipation of the massive points damage he knew he was probably going to take in mugello. it sounds obvious to say pressure is more likely to generate mistakes, but of course that's not always true of our title contenders! pecco only really wakes up when he's already dug a hole halfway to the centre of the earth - but when he faces actual pressure, his track record is mostly very strong. his biggest howlers this season, portimao + catalunya sprints, both came when he was leading comfortably. martin has also made these pressure-light mistakes in the past, most memorably indonesia last year but... well

one of the most fascinating bits of sports are like... limits and ceilings and how your build-up as an athlete kinda determines what's possible for you. like, sports is sort of where you experiment with notions of fate and inevitability and all that, where you question whether it's possible for anyone to ever really change. is it once a choker, always a choker? if you know that you have this problem, this flaw that is always just there in the background, waiting to be actualised - what can you do? does it give you more or less hope that there's not a clear root cause? how debilitating that must be for confidence too, always knowing that you could cause everything you've worked for to crash down in a moment.... this is where. y'know, the thing with pecco, right, is that he's now gotten to a weird place where psychologically he has to be wary of the mistakes he himself makes - but he knows that he can also bounce back from them. he has that muscle memory, because he's done it before. he chucked it down the road in india and he won the title! jorge did it in thailand and he didn't! and the problem is that it becomes a self-reinforcing cycle of sorts, because even though the margin between the two of them at the end of last year ended up being relatively slim... one of them still won and one of them still lost. which actually means that even though pecco and jorge both have made serious mistakes this year (though pecco's track record is cleaner - in portimao the points punishment didn't quite fit the crime and in the jerez/le mans sprints he was kinda just unlucky), only one of them knows they can do this shit and win the title anyway

and now jorge has an entire summer break to go away and think about that. can be a good thing, get some distance, and it's easy to slip into a run of bad form that you can't escape if there's no interruption. can be an awful thing because you're sitting with your mistakes for weeks on end with no chance to rectify them. I'm naturally a pessimist on the 'can any athlete ever really change' question because life has very much worn me down on this topic over the last few years (aka some sports results made me really sad). but I always want to be optimistic! I want to believe athletes can fix their fatal flaws! I want to believe they can get better at managing their tyres and not folding under pressure. and pressure works weirdly... sometimes it's not really a test of 'mental strength' as much as it is of what kind of in-built margin an athlete has (btw this is my best guess for what goes wrong with martin). sometimes it's beneficial in sharpening the mind and erasing the possibility of you just... not being sufficiently concentrated (which is my best guess for what happens with pecco when he's not being pressured). can you truly get better at dealing with that? or at a certain point, have you already accumulated so much mental scar tissue that you're always going to get in your own way? who knows! maybe we're all doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past forever and ever. who knows

anyway. in response to this ask. I do think it's more a case of 63's aligned in being too stuck in their own head, too concerned with legacy, and walking a very thin line between arrogance and insecurity. all three of them, though, have a bad case of 'coming through the ranks in an era of greats they'll always be disparagingly compared to'. what's new can never be as good as what came before, right? and they're constantly struggling to manage or maybe even overcome basic flaws that seem to be embedded in their make up as competitors... maybe they'll make it, just a little. maybe they never will. but it sure is fun to watch them try!

#bloody hell anon he had a mechanical dnf at his home race give him a moment #real talk he's george lawrence #the unbearable agony of not QUITE being able to come across as authentically yourself... sure you want to win but you also want to be loved #but. BUT. when it comes down to it. you'd always take the winning over being loved #revered teammate with an.... enthusiastic fanbase be damned #and eventually you will be able to make the team your own when the legend goes off to the red flop team #//#brr brr #batsplat responds #also I resent the notion we have the off brand version of eff won's anything!! our freaks are all 100% organically grown I'll have you know #can't believe I posted before this weekend going 'well I hope they don't prove me wrong about this serious title fight business' ffs #sachsenring last year is arguably still their best duel I REALLY felt like we might be building to that but OH NO #I feel hugely defensive of that rivalry and their stupid fucking title fights but some days they do NOT make it easy on me istg #I STILL think it's a bit unfair to them that they're being given twice as many chances to chuck it down the road #but like... can we please try to do our title fight momentum shifts on track and not in the gravel...#remember le mans... don't you want to do another le mans... please do another le mans... even a catalunya... come on... please #current tag

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motocorsas · 6 months ago

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That was a really good explanation, lot of thinking points. And totally agree with what you said. Jotting down a few things that popped for me.

I think generally fans of marc understand that he is unhinged, it might come across as joking or haha uncomfortable laugh but it is genuinely every time he is on track understanding that he might be in the gravel or seriously injured. Or that he will push himself to the limit to just try.

I think le man encapsulated him beautifully. He said, I will be at the front and let us see what happens. I have to try. He will try to do all to put himself in the perfect position and will try if something opens up. Now is this annoying and most often disrupts other riders like a cat among pigeons? Putting them off their lines? Yes but isn't that what racing is about (aside from ramming into them, i am not excusing his Argentina type crimes)? Otherwise you would race in a straight line. And if you don't push then what are you as a rider. Isn't it just a manufacturer thing? You win because you are on a Ducati Yamaha factory team satellite team etc etc. How is your merit as a rider proven if you don't push beyond the bike?

For example in le man, I kept saying, 5th is ok marc, you are on a gp23, then he went up, and I was like, 3rd is ok, you are on a gp23. But he tried and he got 2nd. That's on him, not the bike.

But the place where anons comment rubbed wrong is that all the greats were exactly like marc. Jorge raced 36 hours after he had an arm surgery or something ? Casey would win and then go lie in his motorhome in anxiety and guilt. Vale has charm on his side but has done enough shenanigans to gain one over his opponent. Anon came across as saying I hate marc because of this this this. When those qualities were not marc specific at all. It is just amplified now because other riders are not like this. Not his fault the aliens left before him. But there used to be 4 others like him. That time no one was talking about they win too much, they committed too much (wall in the middle of the garage please).Or maybe they did and we are in a cycle.

But if they hold marc to this standard they need to hold the others to the same too and where would be then with this sport. Most of the famous races are because of unhinged behaviour. And maybe they do. Maybe their favs are non alienish perfectly good riders like Dovi who I adore. We will have to see how Pedro grows into his shark behaviour.

As for his Honda bike, just today in a podcast someone mentioned brad Binder developed the ktm for himself for the past 3 years and Pedro is running circles around him in it. So like bike development is not specific to marc. However, marc developing the bike around him, and yet it trying to kill him? It wasn't developed for him then fully or even safely right? They just relied on his ability to save things. Doubt that he said build shit I will manage. He is known for not complaining so maybe his silence implied it. But he did leave when he finally saw they weren't taking him seriously. How much of bike dev culpability is on Honda & how much on marc.

He also doesn't seem to glorify his pain even when he narrated it in his docu? It's more, I hope this matters, I've given up so much. Which could be taken as glorifying but he doesn't go this is what I had to do for my 8 championships. Nico rosberg I stopped cycling and lost muscle type of stuff. This is what it takes to be faster by a sec stuff. I don't think he could do that because his own brother rides with him. It would mean he thinks Alex needs to go break a few more bones to win. He does have a no pain no gain on his insta. And might not show how bad his situation is while it happens but he does show himself looking back and going that was messed up, I was losing it, it was a nightmare, etc etc. It feels more like helplessness. He said it was like when a toxic lover who calls and you go (when asked about his eye injury reoccurring at any point). The helplessness of passion. He can't not ride. It's something you and I would do. Ending up with broken hearts instead of bodies.

But I do understand what you said of the system and sadly it won't change overnight. Also for the riders already brought up through it, it will not matter.

Meh rambled through many topics and ended up with half thoughts I think.

idk if i can address all of this but i see where you're coming from even if i disagree. often watching marc fans try to make "haha war criminal" or "unhinged" jokes makes me feel uncomfortable for reasons i don't know. as far as the bike being made for him -- it was never a perfect fit, it absolutely was twitchy and hard to ride, but he got the last word on everything. "marc developing the bike around him, and yet it trying to kill him? It wasn't developed for him then fully or even safely right?" -- well, no, but a bike's performance differs during every race. on days that they couldn't get the setting right, the thing was volatile and dangerous. but when they were able to make all the right tweaks, even if it's just a change to TC or something, he was unstoppable.

i'm not accusing marquez of trying to romanticize his own suffering, but he still sees it as something worth enduring in order to keep riding. if he didn't see it as worth it, he would have quit. that is a normalized sentiment that presents dangerous realities when taken too far. obviously marc isn't the only rider who feels like that; i've been vocal in the past about how operations like arm pump surgery are being framed more like routine physical maintenance and less like the invasive and potentially risky surgeries they are. and the system won't change overnight, and likely never if racing continues to be presented as this fictionalized, mythologized entertainment product.

#ask

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usamotorscycle-blog · 8 years ago

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MotoGP COTA 2017 Results

The run-up to the Red Bull Grand Prix of the Americas set the stage for a much-anticipated cage match between Yamaha phenom Maverick Viñales and Honda triple world champion Marc Marquez. All day long, the British announcing crew was breathlessly prancing about the broadcast booth, pondering the sheer wonder of it all, going absolutely hyperbolic. Showing no sense of the moment, Viñales crashed out of fourth place on Lap 2, letting the air out of the balloon and ceding, at least for the moment, the lead in the world championship to teammate Valentino Rossi, with Marquez suddenly back in the game.

Practice, Practice, Practice

FP1: Viñales was in charge, not having received the memo about Marquez’ ownership position at COTA. FP2 was led by Marquez, snatched from Johann Zarco; Viñales right behind, trimming his cuticles. FP3 was Viñales, Dani Pedrosa, Cal Crutchlow and Marquez. Embed from Getty Images Johann Zarco continues to impress, qualifying onto the second row and finishing fifth for the second-straight race. Something had to be done about the weirdness in the standings heading into Austin. Early in the season, MotoGP seemed to have fallen through the rabbit hole in Alice in Wonderland. Yamaha is just taking it to Honda – the 2016 M1 is competitive with the 2017 RC213V. All four Yamahas sit in the top 11 for the season after the opening two rounds, including the two rookies. Crutchlow led all Hondas, tied with Yamaha Tech 3 rookie Jonas Folger. Fellow rookie Johann Zarco is on the move, a mere five points behind Folger and Crutchlow. Three Ducs rest in the top ten led by, of all people, Scott Redding in fourth. It was time to come up from the rabbit hole. Time to return to Europe. Just one more foreign outing in Texas to endure before things could return back to normal.

Establishing Positions

Embed from Getty Images Marc Marquez continued to dominate in Austin, once again taking the pole. Q2 saw a few things put right, beyond the fact that Viñales and Marquez stand head and shoulders above the rest of the field, a bunch of Aliens and wannabees slugging it out for supporting spots in the top ten. Viñales delivered the first sub-2:04 lap of the day with maybe 30 seconds left in the session. 20 seconds later, Marquez flogged his Honda to a fifth straight pole in Texas, from which he had won the previous four races. Rossi snuck onto the front row late in the session, creating a second row of Dani Pedrosa, the impudent Zarco on the satellite Yamaha, and one Jorge Lorenzo, clad in white and red. Oh, and perhaps the save of the season, by Loris Baz late in the session.

MotoGP™ ✔@MotoGP Laws of physics? What laws of physics? Could be the greatest save of all time...

@lorisbaz 3:15 AM - 23 Apr 2017 5,6355,635 Retweets 7,4857,485 likes Lorenzo and Jack Miller had made it through Q1, with Lorenzo putting the Ducati as high as fourth position before settling for sixth. Zarco had been up near the top of the timesheets again all weekend, putting pressure on a lot of factory rides. Miller crashed out of Q2 and appeared to be trotting back to the garage “gingerly,” his inevitable early-season injury having possibly arrived. Pedrosa was hanging around in fourth, back to starting up front with the big dogs. In support of my blog, Rossi and Viñales had their first set-to on Saturday during qualifying, with Viñales seemingly cheesed off about Rossi cruising on the racing line. Race Direction was later said to be considering sending a strongly-worded letter to Lin Jarvis asking him for “best efforts to prevail” upon The Franchise not to seriously injure The New Kid in Town.

The Race Itself

The 2017 American Grand Prix was more parade than firefight. The factory Hondas and Yamahas emerged from the early chaos to form up the leading group, with Dani Pedrosa front and center. Cal Crutchlow got clear of The Great Unwashed, and there was even a Jorge Lorenzo sighting around fifth place on the first lap. The usual suspects quickly found themselves strung out along the bumps and potholes littering the Circuit of the Americas, which stands in need of a paving crew.

Maverick Viñales’ race was over after just two laps, his first mistake of his career at Yamaha. Although it took 21 laps and 45 minutes to confirm it, the race basically came down to four moves. 1) Viñales crashed late on Lap 2, leaving Pedrosa, Marquez, Rossi and Johann Zarco in the lead group. 2) Marquez took the lead from Pedrosa on Lap 9. 3) Rossi and Zarco came together a few minutes later, the Frenchman pushing Rossi wide to the right where he could cut back and increase his lead, incurring a hypothetical .3 second penalty that amounted to nothing but had the announcers, fully recovered from Viñales’ crash, happy to find something new to go mental over. 4) Rossi went through on Pedrosa on Lap 19. Game. Set. Match

Johann Zarco forced Valentino Rossi to run straight through an S-curve. And while he didn’t intend to do it, Race Direction ruled Rossi still had an obligation not to gain an advantage and docked him a 0.3 second penalty. In the end, the penalty did not affect Rossi’s second-place finish.

At Ducati Corse, Life Goes On

Andrea Dovizioso being interviewed elsewhere about his place in the Ducatisphere: Q: So why can’t the problems (with the GP17) be solved? A: “There’s a big difference between understanding the problems and solving them.” Quoted elsewhere, it seems Andrea “The Maniac” Iannone has finally accepted as fact something the rest of the planet observed late last season. This, allegedly, is News You Need: ‘Andrea Iannone says he is resigned to having to race with a top speed deficit with Suzuki throughout the 2017 MotoGP season.’ Please refer to the above quote from Dovi with regard to this revelation. Embed from Getty Images The good news for Jorge Lorenzo is he qualified sixth at COTA. The bad news is he finished ninth. Rubbing salt in the wound, I’m pretty sure that Danilo Petrucci and Andrea Iannone stole Jorge Lorenzo’s lunch money over the last few laps of the race. We could be charitable and suppose JLo’s tires gave up on him. Or we could be hateful and small and speculate that he got out-cojoñed by the two Italians.

The Big Picture

With Viñales’ feet replanted in terra firma after an otherworldly start to his Yamaha career, we can now have a straightforward, adult conversation about the state of the MotoGP championship after three rounds. The factory Yamahas and Hondas appear significantly ahead of everyone else early in the season. Rossi and Viñales are frightening, Viñales for his sheer speed, Rossi for his strategic brilliance. Marquez has atoned for his crash in Argentina and will push The Boys in Blue for the entire season. The factory Ducati program is in deep yogurt, Dovizioso hanging onto fourth place by his fingernails while grasping bad luck with both hands. LCR Honda stud Cal Crutchlow continues to nose around the top of the standings, his crash at Losail all that stands between him and a top three ranking.

Dani Pedrosa and Marc Marquez secured their first podiums of the season. Valentino Rossi scored his third to take over the championship lead. So, order has been restored at the top of the MotoGP food chain just in time to return to racing in Europe. Aliens occupy the top three spots in the standings. Near-Aliens (semi-Aliens?) sit fourth and fifth, while the Alien Emeritus stands sixth. The apparently brilliant Johann Zarco has seventh place all to himself, while teammate Jonas Folger is tied for eighth place with Pramac Ducati pilot Scot Redding and Jack Miller. My boy Alex Rins, previously nursing a bad ankle, suffered a compound fracture of his wrist during practice this weekend and is out until further notice. And Jorge Lorenzo, who sold his Alien Card for filthy lucre, sits counting his money in 13th place, with 12 points to show for his first three acts with Ducati.

A Look Ahead

The DNF dropped Maverick Viñales out of the points lead but he remains second by just six points and remains one of the favorites to take it all. Two weeks from now MotoGP blasts into the Spanish Riviera. The racing will be at Jerez, while the action in the evening will be on The Strip in Cadiz. Maverick Viñales, despite the good vibes associated with a return to home soil, probably will not be in the gift-giving mood in which he found himself today. Excuse me while I butcher the old Smith Barney one-liner. If they want spots on the podium next time out, Rossi and Marquez will probably have to do it the old-fashioned way. They’ll have to earn it. 2017 MotoGP Grand Prix of the Americas Race Results Pos. Rider Team Time 1 Marc Marquez Repsol Honda 43:58.770 2 Valentino Rossi Movistar Yamaha +3.069 3 Dani Pedrosa Repsol Honda +5.112 4 Cal Crutchlow LCR Honda +7.638 5 Johann Zarco Monster Yamaha Tech 3 +7.957 6 Andrea Dovizioso Ducati Corse +14.058 7 Andrea Iannone Suzuki Ecstar +15.491 8 Danilo Petrucci Octo Pramac Yaknich Ducati +16.772 9 Jorge Lorenzo Ducati Corse +17.979 10 Jack Miller Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS Honda +18.494 11 Jonas Folger Monster Yamaha Tech3 +18.903 12 Scott Redding Octo Pramac Ducati +28.735 13 Tito Rabat Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS Honda +30.041 14 Hector Barbera Avintia Racing +31.364 15 Alvaro Bautista Pull&Bear Aspar Ducati +1:06.547 16 Bradley Smith Red Bull KTM +1:22.090 17 Aleix Espargaro Aprilia Gresini +2 Laps Not Classified DNF Sam Lowes Aprilia Gresini 10 Laps DNF Pol Espargaro Red Bull KTM 12 Laps DNF Loris Baz Reale Avintia Ducati 13 Laps DNF Maverick Viñales Movistar Yamaha 20 Laps DNF Karel Abraham Pull&Bear Aspar Ducati 20 Laps 2017 MotoGP Top 10 Standings After 3 Rounds 1 Valentino Rossi Yamaha 56 2 Maverick Viñales Yamaha 50 3 Marc Marquez Honda 38 4 Andrea Dovizioso Ducati 30 5 Cal Crutchlow Honda 29 6 Dani Pedrosa Honda 27 7 Johann Zarco Yamaha 22 8 Jonas Folger Yamaha 21 9 Scott Redding Ducati 21 10 Jack Miller Honda 21 Click to Post

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usamotorscycle-blog · 8 years ago

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2017 MotoGP Season Preview

With the start of the 2017 MotoGP season only weeks away, we turn to our trusted MotoGP Correspondent, Bruce Allen, still foolishly bucking for promotion, for a look ahead at what will be on offer for racing fans this year. The racing begins on March 26 in Qatar. MotoGP is the fastest-growing motorsports flavor on earth. That it has virtually no presence or accessibility in the U.S. is a poor joke. It appears the safety-conscious American parents of today are reluctant to let their kids, most of them, anyway, learn to ride ATVs and motorbikes when they’re young. Series organizer Dorna has recognized that a country wishing to develop world-class riders needs to have a formal development program, one of which was implemented in Great Britain just this year. (Probably because of Cal Crutchlow, the Great English-As-A-First-Language Hope.) Such leagues have existed in Spain and Italy for decades. The fact is that the U.S., for its size, with expensive national marketing costs, doesn’t sell a lot of imported motorcycles, and it’s doubtful that showing more MotoGP races would change that. So most of us Americans miss out. Meanwhile the Aussies and Kiwis are all over this stuff, along with Europe and much of Asia. No more giving up calendar dates in favor of F1; MotoGP has MoMentum. No more five weeks off in the middle of the summer, either. Countries from Thailand and Indonesia to Hungary and Finland are clamoring to host races; pressure on the calendar, with four rounds still in Spain (quietly drumming my fingertips on the tabletop), is intense. Even money says the calendar goes to 20 dates within five years. And get rid of Aragon. Or Argentina. Ducati’s Andrea Dovizioso and Yamaha’s Valentino Rossi and the rest of the MotoGP grid took part in a test a few weeks ago at Australia’s Phillip Island circuit. Overall, 2017 has the look of a great season. The Big Three factory teams of Yamaha, Honda and Ducati will dominate much of the action, as they are home to the Aliens, those riders whose balance and instincts are a step above the rest of the field – Marc Marquez, Valentino Rossi, Jorge Lorenzo and new Alien on the block Maverick Vinales. Keeping them honest will be the likes of Lorenzo’s teammate and wingman Andrea Dovizioso, Cal Crutchlow on the LCR Honda, and Andrea Iannone on the factory Suzuki. Alex Rins, on the second factory Suzuki, and Johann Zarco on a Tech 3 satellite Yamaha, are the Moto2 grads most likely to podium this year, with Rins looking, to me anyway, like the rookie of the year for 2017. Another Alien in the making. Due to last year’s amazing series of races which culminated in nine different riders standing on the top step of the podium, hope springs eternal for the riders and teams in the lower tranches. Pramac, Aspar and Reale Esponsorama get new old hardware, which could improve prospects for Hectic Hector Barbera and Alvaro Bautista. It would take another Assen-type miracle for either of the Marc VDS riders, Jack Miller and Tito Rabat, to win this year. (There are also rumblings that the team is planning to fold up its tent in the next year or two, possibly freeing up slots for a satellite Suzuki team.) Let’s just look at this thing team by team, in alphabetical order. We will wait until after the season opener to assign tranches to the various riders. Aprilia Racing Team Gresini Embed from Getty Images Sam Lowes Aleix Espargaro Sam and Aleix need to be prepared for a long season. Hard luck Espargaro, having lost out at Suzuki to Iannone and Rins, takes a step down to join the Aprilia factory effort, on the upswing but still learning their way around. The Aprilia and KTM projects are likely to be relatively underfunded for the foreseeable future, slowing their development, and reducing their prospects to those of satellite teams. For Lowes, somehow promoted from Moto2 despite world-class inconsistency, there will be a lot of badly scuffed leathers. Espargaro seems to be getting the hang of things more quickly. For Fausto Gresini, for whom the allure of the premier class is almost irresistible, 2017 will be like shooting 108 on the golf course – enough good shots to keep you coming back, but a vast majority of poor to terrible swings. Two unfamiliar riders and not-quite-competitive bike. Bring a book. Ducati Factory Team Embed from Getty Images Jorge Lorenzo Andrea Dovizioso Going into 2017, the factory Ducati team is the most interesting group on the lot. The Italians expect plenty, and soon, from their brand-new triple world champion. Jorge Lorenzo, in turn, suggested that the first real day of testing at Sepang was a bit terrifying, but with the help of Casey Stoner and Michele Pirro is adapting to the Desmosedici GP17. No more getting blitzed in the straights, but he needs to re-learn cornering if he is to avoid “pulling a Rossi” on the Ducati, which seems unlikely unless he finds himself unable to keep the bike upright. A win in Qatar would do a lot to build his confidence, although the same could be said for every rider on the grid. Nice writing. Consistent Andrea Dovizioso has been flying under the radar during the offseason, allowing the cameras to focus on Lorenzo while he plots his strategy to win the title himself. The latest iteration of the Desmosedici will probably be a great bike, and Dovi has four years in with the factory. Personally, I would love to see him fighting for a title with Vinales and Marquez. It could happen. I think the odds favor him to finish ahead of Lorenzo this season. Embed from Getty Images A recently-filed patent provides clues that the bulge under the tail may hide a variable exhaust nozzle that resembles ones used on jet engines. The Bologna bunch has recently received a patent for a new jet exhaust valve; don’t know what that’s for unless they’re interested in watching Lorenzo leaving Earth’s orbit. It has also installed what is said to be an anti-chatter box behind the rider and bent the exhaust pipes and stuff around it. They are keeping their 2017 fairing secret, but I expect it to resemble the new Yamaha innovation, with the interior wings in a laughable “bulge,” which is expressly forbidden under the rules yet permitted by some guy named Danny. “Y’see, it’s not so much of a “bulge” as it is a continuation of the radius… An’ that’s why they’ve blokes like me, to keep things strite, y’know. Yeah.” For me, the most interesting question is whether the big red bikes are to be housed in Lorenzo’s Land or Gigi’s Garage. LCR Honda Embed from Getty Images Perpetually carrying a chip on his shoulder, Cal Crutchlow finally came through last year with a pair of race wins. Cal Crutchlow My personal favorite rider. To disparage, mock, call out and, ultimately, have to eat crow over. Crashlow won his first two premier class races in 2016 after years of making excuses and broadcasting blame for not having won earlier. He has burned bridges with Yamaha and Ducati, although he seems to be a fair-haired child for Honda as of late. Complaining a month ago that “Honda are on it’s back foot,” or some other foolish British verb conjugation, it seems the litany has resumed. With Vinales added to the mix at the top, I don’t expect Cal to win two races again this season. Marc VDS Racing Team NFL (Not For Long) Embed from Getty Images Jack Miller Tito Rabat The struggling #3 Honda team, at the end of the Sepang test in January, had neither rider fit to ride. Tito Rabat was a great rider in Moto2 but is proving to be a bust in MotoGP. Miller, tagged by HRC for greatness at a young age, is proving to be unable to keep the RC213V upright, piling up more serious injuries than The Black Night in the Monty Python classic, not to mention creating acres of shredded, brightly painted fiberglass. This team could be out of existence in a year or two, providing an opportunity for the moon, the sun and the stars to align in such a way that, as Dani Pedrosa’s contract on the factory Honda team expires, young Miller is standing at the door, kindly showing him the way out. A national day of celebration will follow in Australia, one in which Livio Suppo, team boss at Repsol Honda, having been out-voted by marketing folks seeking an Australian Alien, may not be participating. Monster Yamaha Tech 3 Embed from Getty Images Johann Zarco Jonas Folger Hmmm. Two freshmen on the satellite Yamaha team. Herve Poncharal, team boss, has a thing for Folger; perhaps he likes the cut of his jib, but I haven’t seen much in the way of dominating performances in Moto2 to justify a promotion. Zarco arrived on the strength of having become the only rider in Moto2 to title twice, consecutively, and is probably disappointed at not having a factory bike of some kind at his disposal. Both riders will be on steep learning curves this year, although Zarco fared surprisingly well at the Malaysia test. He and Alex Rins figure to battle it out for rookie of the year honors. MoviStar Yamaha Factory Team Embed from Getty Images Valentino Rossi Maverick Vinales Lin Jarvis’ factory Yamaha team enters the season with GOAT candidate Valentino Rossi and the heir apparent, the aptly-named Maverick Vinales, recently graduated from a two-year riding academy with the factory Suzuki team. During those two years, he figured out how to win (Silverstone 2016) on a relatively slow bike. Now that he has earned arguably the fastest complete bike on the grid, great expectations abound. His “win” at the Sepang test in January affirms those who expect him to title in his first Yamaha season. Marc Marquez, reigning and triple world champion, has been encouraging this thinking, talking publicly about how concerned he is with Vinales. Intentionally adding to the pressure, getting inside Vinales’ head. Rossi-like. Embed from Getty Images Rule changes prohibit the protruding winglets frequently seen on bikes last year. Yamaha’s solution is to move its downforce-generating surfaces inside the fairing. Rossi maintains his Alien status, but it will be tested again this year. (Dani Pedrosa is now an Alien Emeritus.) He still has the passion and the conditioning and the experience. But does he have the reflexes and balance he did when he was 28? I think not. I think he is also less of a risk taker now than he was a decade ago. He will undoubtedly win some races this year, but may lose the season contest with his teammate, effectively ending their friendship for all time. The intra-team competition could tighten significantly, however, if Vinales finds himself cartwheeling through a lot of gravel traps this spring. Octo Pramac Yakhnich Ducati Embed from Getty Images Danilo Petrucci (GP17) Cheesed Off Scott Redding (GP16) The #2 Ducati team. Danilo Petrucci, the burly ex-cop, may find himself in the mix once in a while (probably in the rain) this season onboard the GP17 he won fair and square in the intra-team competition with Scott Redding last year. Redding, sadly, will not be in the mix on his GP16, as he seems unable to get over the hump in the premier class after a glittering (?) run in Moto2. With three name sponsors, it seems likely the team will have plenty of frames and fairings to replace for Redding as he goes bumping around the tracks of the world, muttering about how it just isn’t fair. Pull & Bear Aspar Team Ducati Embed from Getty Images Alvaro Bautista GP16 Karel Abraham GP15 A satellite Ducati team with upset potential. Alvaro Bautista, like Barbera, has been a consistent underachiever in the premier class. His own high-water mark occurred in 2008, when he finished second in the 250cc class behind a guy named Simoncelli. In 2012 and 2013 he flogged Fausto Gresini’s close-to-factory-spec Honda to 5th and 6th place finishes, respectively. Meanwhile, enter Karel Abraham, previously employed by his dad before serving a one-year sentence in WSB last year. He’s back, for whatever reason, this time on a GP15. Bautista has, over the years, shown moments of great skill and moments of sheer stupidity. This year, again mimicking Barbera, he has a chance to peek at a podium or two after two grinding years with Aprilia. This may also be the best bike he has ever ridden, although the Honda back in 2012-2013 was badass. We will stick our necks out here and predict zero podiums for the Aspar team in 2017. Reale Esponsorama Racing (formerly Avintia) Embed from Getty Images Hector Barbera (GP16) Too-Tall Loris Baz (GP15) Another second-string Ducati team that could surprise, 2017 features Barbera on a GP16 and Baz on a GP15. Hectic Hector’s career saw its high-water mark in the 250cc class in 2009 when he finished second to Hiro Aoyama. Once he arrived in MotoGP, never having been the beneficiary of first-class equipment, his career has leveled off. He has battled slow bikes, injury, and a low racing IQ to a series of undistinguished finishes. Last year he showed some improvement which, if it continues this year, could actually make him a consistent top-10 finisher. He’ll have to overcome the initial setback of a broken collarbone, suffered last week in training. Barbera is expected to miss this weekend’s final test at Qatar in order to be ready for the March 26 season opener. Embed from Getty Images The long-of-limb Loris Baz is a rarity in MotoGP these days. Meanwhile, young Frenchman Loris Baz, who is, like, 6-foot-3-inches tall, had an up and down second MotoGP season. Three distinct episodes of “start slowly, improve, then crash” marked his year, including a fourth-place finish at Brno and a fifth at Sepang. Riding a Ducati at his lofty height suggests he’ll prefer the long flowing circuits over the tight squinchy ones. He will need to learn to keep the bike upright if he is to continue in MotoGP. Red Bull KTM Factory Racing Embed from Getty Images Bradley Smith Pol Espargaro Teammates on the Tech 3 Yamaha for the past two seasons, these two get factory rides with the rookie KTM factory team. The Austrians have enjoyed decades of success elsewhere and feel it is but a matter of time before they start winning in MotoGP. Years, perhaps many, in my opinion, but what do I know? Of the two riders, I prefer Espargaro, a year younger, with a title under his belt in Moto2. Smith seems like a nice guy, but appears snake bit. It’s always something with Bradley – an injury, a mechanical issue, a head cold. Whatever. I will gladly back Espargaro this year in the intra-team rivalry, the only competition that will mean much of anything to this group. Embed from Getty Images Not his first rodeo, Pol Espargaro is ready to ride this (Red) Bull. The official factory rollout of the KTM entries in all three classes included words from the Chief Cheddar at KTM Itself, Stefan Pierer, announcing his intention to fight with Honda for a MotoGP world championship in the not-too-distant future. Patience, grasshopper. Repsol Honda Team Embed from Getty Images Dani Pedrosa Marc Marquez Along with the factory Yamaha and Ducati teams, HRC is royalty in the world of grand prix motorcycle racing. Repsol Hondas have been ridden by world champions Freddie Spencer, Eddie Lawson, Mick Doohan, Àlex Crivillé, Valentino Rossi, Nicky Hayden, Casey Stoner and Marc Marquez. Its prospects are decidedly mixed heading into 2017. With several new engines to figure out, the Sepang test was a bit of a struggle, with Marquez working hard to finish second behind Vinales, but able to deliver several impressive 20-lap race simulations. Appears to be another year in which Marquez will have to manage an inferior bike to battle for the title with the other Aliens. He did it last year. I believe Vinales will collect a number of wins and an equal number of DNFs on the factory Yamaha, allowing a mature Marquez to slug it out with Jorge, Dovi and Vale again this year. With two new riders, Suzuki Ecstar will not threaten. Iannone? Dovizioso? I think not. Embed from Getty Images Marc Marquez reportedly dislocated his shoulder in a private test at Jerez but he is expected to be ready for the start of the season. As for Dani Pedrosa, I look for him to finish seventh or eighth this season, as he has clearly lost a step since his prime in 2012. Whether he’s interested in serving as Marquez’ wingman in 2017 is problematic. If he slips out of the top 10, Honda may buy out his last year and bring Miller or, more likely, Crutchlow onto the factory team in 2018. Miller may blossom this year. Probably not. Team Suzuki Ecstar Embed from Getty Images Andrea Iannone Alex Rins The second most interesting team on the grid, a rapidly improving Suzuki will have two new riders in 2017. Andrea Iannone worked himself out of a job on the factory Ducati last season and landed with Suzuki, which may be a piece of good luck for both parties. Thus far in his premier-class career, Iannone has been unable to harness his impossible speed, his temperament and aggressiveness often getting the better of him. It would be loads of fun to see him battle with the front group this season, and it could happen. Unless The Maniac is still, well, a maniac. Alex Rins has had Alien written all over him since he was about 15. Although he never titled in the lower MotoGP classes, he recorded two seconds and two thirds in three Moto3 and two Moto2 seasons. The Rins and Marquez families do not exchange Christmas cards, setting up a new rivalry for the next few years while Rins earns his whiskers. He figures to become a problem for both Marquez and Vinales in that time. Definite Alien potential here. Embed from Getty Images Alex Rins is a strong candidate for rookie of the year honors. I see a couple of podiums in store for Suzuki in 2017, perhaps a handful. Unless the bike is greatly improved they may not compete for a win, but the Suzuki program seems to be progressing nicely. Perhaps 2018 will be their year. Phillip Island Test Three productive days of testing at Phillip Island in early February taught us little we did not already know. Marquez and Vinales seem to be running in a league of their own. Dani Pedrosa still has some juice left in the tank. And rookie Jonas Folger can coax at least one fast lap per day out of his Tech 3 Yamaha. Embed from Getty Images Maverick Vinales topped the time sheets at Phillip Island. Cal Crutchlow and rookie Alex Rins ran almost identical fast laps on Friday. Dovizioso and Lorenzo were running neck and neck for seventh and eighth places, respectively. Jack Miller, Aleix Espargaro and Alvaro Bautista finished ahead of Valentino Rossi, something you don’t get to report every day. And lots of disappointed Ducati riders (six of the bottom nine) muttering to themselves farther back in the dust. Not a great three days for Ducati Corse. Vinales is making it hard not to envision him clutching a world championship trophy in his first premier-class season. If he can stay within himself and not get overly excited, it could happen this year. Then, when Rins joins the fray in 2019… There you have it. Due to incessant demand, and for those of you interested in going into debt with your bookies, here’s my prediction for the Top 10 finishers, in order, for the 2017 season. Bookmark this article so you can rub it in my face in November. Expect a “404 Error Page Not Found” at that time, especially if I’m way off: Marc Marquez Maverick Vinales Valentino Rossi Andrea Dovizioso Cal Crutchlow Jorge Lorenzo Dani Pedrosa Alex Rins Andrea Iannone Alvaro Bautista Click to Post

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