#just him and elia with 18 million in the bank

[warmsol]

lmfao kai wishes this was his real household

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: The Carolina Conundrum; Top 20 RFAs; Fantasy Impact of Contracts (July16)

  My condolences and the condolences of this entire community go out to the family of Ray Emery, who passed away Sunday when he drowned while swimming in Hamilton. He had not yet turned 36 years old, my goodness.

Emery had a friendly but fiery personality that was a welcome change from the usual blandness of carefully PR-trained NHL players. He played 287 NHL games and was 145-86-28. His best season was in 2006-07 with Ottawa when he started 58 games and was 33-16-6 with a 0.918 SV% and 2.47 GAA. At the time he was 24 and the world really was his oyster. But injuries derailed him – specifically a serious hip ailment – and he could never find a rhythm, never playing 35 NHL games in a season again. But just coming back at all from this particular hip injury was by many accounts a miracle. His last NHL team was the Flyers in 2015, but he did play for the Marlies two years ago. In 2013 he won the William Jennings Trophy along with Corey Crawford, and he’s a two-time finalist for the Bill Masterton – and he got to raise the Stanley Cup with Chicago in 2013.

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Working hard on the Fantasy Guide. It’s out on August 1 but you can always pre-order it!

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Going over Carolina for the Guide and this lineup may be the most fluent of all of them when it comes to the group of forwards. The wildcards here are twofold. First off are the players who need to clear waivers in order to be sent down, but they won’t get through. Valentin Zykov and Lucas Wallmark. Second, is Martin Necas. The Canes don’t have a No.1 center and it’s wrong of them to throw Necas there at 19 years of age. But he’s ready to make the team and they need him. Wallmark, arguably Charlotte’s best player and a former fourth-round pick, is ready to make the jump. Zykov, who led the AHL with 33 goals and had seven points in 10 games during his NHL audition, is also ready. Andrei Svechnikov is also ready. Other factors to consider is the fact that Sebastian Aho was tried out at center for the final three or four weeks of the season. Of the current Carolina roster, the players who took the most faceoffs last season were, in order: Jordan Staal (1338), Victor Rask (716), Aho (172). So you almost have to put Wallmark in there. Can’t waive him and it would be stupid to sit him.

But what if Necas is absolutely lights-out in training camp? He’s already clicking with Svechnikov in prospects camp – what if he leaves Carolina no choice?

Here’s what I know: Staal is the team’s best defensive forward; Wallmark could make the team but is not ready for anything beyond the third line; Necas is probably ready for the second line but it would be too much to ask of him to take over the top line; Staal is only one guy – he can’t be their No.1 center and their shutdown guy; Rask was in over his head last year and I don’t think he is even a top sixer. Third liner, to me.

I guess if Necas doesn’t make the team, you could have Aho at center and lines looking like this:

Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov

Skinner – Rask – Williams

McGinn – Staal – Ferland

Martinook – Wallmark – Di Guiseppe

Zykov is the 13th forward.

  And if Necas does make the team, you could see:

Teravainen – Staal – Aho

Skinner – Necas – Svechnikov

McGinn – Rask – Williams

Ferland – Wallmark – Martinook

And Di Giuseppe becomes the 13th forward. Zykov 14th – which is another way of saying he’ll be Josh-Leivo’ed. There is a domino effect with either scenario. Staal is a 40-point player in one scenario, a 55-point player in another. Necas is a prospect in one scenario, and a Calder contender in another. Rask bounces back to 45 points in one, or his value continues to dip in the other. Skinner was stuck with weak linemates last year and in the first scenario here that doesn’t change. In the second scenario – it does. This is what I consider, review, analyze with each team. And being wrong on one thing messes with a lot of other things. Maybe a Carolina die-hard fan has further thoughts on this in the comments below.

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On a side note, Wallmark’s contract that he signed last week is a two-way deal this year, one way deal next year. More on this stuff below.

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Some contract news, only the fantasy notables:

Phillip Danault signs a three-year deal with the Habs for just over $3 million per season.

Oliver Bjorkstrand signs a three-year deal with the Jackets for $2.5 million per season.

Michael Kapla signed a one-year deal with the Devils, Taylor Leier signed with the Flyers, Daniel O’Regan with the Sabres and Michael Bunting/Hudson Fasching/Laurent Dauphin with Arizona, Andreas Johnsson signed with the Leafs, Morgan Klimchuk with the Flames – each for one year.

Of note, Leier’s contract is a one-way deal. However, it’s a couple of the two-way deals I want to point out. Johnsson with the Leafs  and O’Regan with the Sabres. Johnsson has to clear waivers in order to be sent down and he’s already proven time and again that he’s NHL-ready. I already have him as a lock to make the team. Why he signed his two-way qualifying offer was strategic – he’s banking on a full NHL season so that he can cash in next year. Meanwhile, my hunch is that Kyle Dubas was thinking about how to get him to sign for two or three years – and I wonder if Johnsson signing his qualifying offer caught him off guard. The Leafs will never – never – waive him no matter how horrible his training camp is. I like his thinking there.

O’Regan would have been in tough to make the Sabres and he can still be sent down without clearing waivers. So he’s as good as off the team to start the year. But he has nothing left to prove in the AHL.

Another interesting one was on Saturday when Nicholas Baptiste signed a two-way deal with the Sabres. He has to clear waivers and I was having trouble fitting him into the Buffalo lineup (much like Carolina, as I noted above). He played 33 games for the Sabres last year but the team is significantly more crowded this time around. And I think he’s behind Justin Bailey in terms of the depth chart – Bailey also has to clear to be sent down, is also a right shot, is bigger (6-3, 214) and was drafted higher (52nd overall versus 69th overall) and I think those things make a difference when teams prioritize who they want to see succeed more. And soon after I wrote the above blurb – Justin Bailey signs and it’s a two-way contract. So he’s in the same boat as Baptiste.

Anyway, for bubble players this is stuff I look at. Thought I’d share.

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Top 20 Restricted Free Agents still left to sign, from a fantasy-hockey interest standpoint:

1. William Karlsson

2. Mark Stone

3. Matt Dumba

4. Elias Lindholm

5. William Nylander

6. Sam Reinhart

7. Dylan Larkin

8. Jacob Trouba

9. Noah Hanifin

10. Brandon Montour

11. Jason Zucker

12. Shea Theodore

13. Ryan Pulock

14. Ryan Spooner

15. Juuse Saros

16. Kevin Hayes

17. Tom Wilson

18. Ondrej Kase

19. David Rittich/Jon Gillies

20. Nick Ritchie

Other notables include Brady Skjei, Josh Morrissey, Mattias Janmark and Darnell Nurse.

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And here are the Top 8 contracts I will be watching for when it comes to the “one-way” versus “two-way” issue. If they sign a one-way deal I will also be looking at the amount, to determine how nice a chance they’ll be given. I expect two-way deals…and I’ll raise an eyebrow if I see “one-way”. I’ll raise that eyebrow to “The Rock” levels if it’s a one-way and in excess of $1.2 million.

1. Jordan Schmaltz

2. Nic Petan

3. Jon Gillies

4. Tristan Jarry

5. Kevin Roy – Whoops! Look at that! As I wrote this, the announcement came through – a two-way contract was signed later Sunday.

6. Kalle Kossila

7. C.J. Smith

8. Andy Welinski

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This year for the Fantasy Guide's "lowdown" (i.e. feature player) for each team, I'm taking it to the masses. In the Forum (here – and you don't have to be logged in to vote) you can vote on each player. Twice per day I've been posting a poll of about 10 players. The top two in total votes get up on Facebook for the final vote – and that winner is the guy I dig deep on in the Guide. It's been a lot of fun and great success. The Facebook readers are getting a kick out of it too.

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See you next Monday

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from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-the-carolina-conundrum-top-20-rfas-fantasy-impact-of-contracts-july16/

[usatrendingsports]

Pittsburgh Pirates 2018 season staff preview: Shipwrecked or clean crusing forward?

What a distinction a number of months could make.

The Pittsburgh Pirates not make use of Andrew McCutchen or Gerrit Cole. Relatedly, they not make use of playoff aspirations, both. As a substitute this can be a staff caught in that awkward second, transitioning between cores, the place the previous is the previous and the longer term just isn’t but current. 

Fantasy Draft Prep

One can be tempted to say, then, that this season would not a lot matter for the Pirates; that they will play 162  as a result of they must, and never as a result of there’s something particular on the horizon. To wit, PECOTA sees them elevating the Jolly Roger 78 occasions and FanGraphs 76 occasions, positioning them within the oh-so-sweet (or is it bitter?) spot between the sport’s high and backside groups. Sigh.

What can Pittsburgh followers stay up for? Listed here are a number of developments price monitoring.

The vitals

Submit-hype, post-hope?

One of many largest potential plot progressions for these Pirates includes two ex-top prospects who have not made good on their pedigree: outfielder Gregory Polanco and starter Tyler Glasnow. Ought to both become what was once anticipated, the tides of fortune might change in a rush.

Polanco, by some means 27 come September, was a replacement-level performer in 2017, per Baseball Reference. Futility has grow to be a theme for him, significantly on the plate. In 4 seasons, he is completed with an OPS above .700 twice — and on a type of events, his OPS was .701. Ouch. Polanco hasn’t hit for energy — too typically his barrel will get beneath the ball — and he is been so ineffective towards left-handers that he needs to be spared from dealing with them.

To Polanco’s credit score, he labored exhausting over the winter, prioritizing mobility to energy with the hopes that he’ll keep more healthy and be extra explosive. Sweat fairness would not guarantee success, nevertheless, and it is not an amazing signal when the highest cause for optimism revolve round how a participant was regarded years in the past. Perhaps Polanco does put all the pieces collectively, at the very least sufficient to return to his 2016 type, but it surely appears much less and fewer doubtless that he’ll ever dwell as much as his hype.

In contrast to Polanco, Glasnow figures to start the season within the minors, the place he has little left to show. In 2017, he posted a 1.93 ERA and greater than 4 strikeouts per stroll throughout his time in Triple-A. The issue for Glasnow, 25 in August, has been establishing a foothold within the majors. In 22 big-league appearances, he is walked 57 batters and allowed 15 residence runs in 85 innings pitched. Lengthy and tall and blessed with a fastball that may lick 100 mph, Glasnow will get loads of probabilities to make a profitable transition to the majors. In some unspecified time in the future, although, that chance would possibly current itself in a reduction position — particularly if his command would not enhance.

Starling Marte had a brutal 2017. USATSI

Marte tries to bounce again

Coming into final spring, Starling Marte regarded like one of many top-20 or so gamers in baseball. He was an above-average batter with a penchant for stealing baggage and getting hit by pitches, in addition to a well-above-average defender who was lastly being moved to middle discipline after years of deference to the face of the franchise.

Then Marte acquired popped for a failed drug take a look at, and subsequently confirmed little to no energy upon his return to the lineup. Now, he is getting into his age-29 season hoping to revert to his previous, all-star ranges of manufacturing. That looks as if a protected wager.

As ridiculous as this sounds, contemplate Marte’s probabilities akin to Pascal’s wager — previously, he is proven that both 1. He is an effective participant with out utilizing any unlawful substance; or 2. He is ready to make use of unlawful substances that go undetected. Both approach, Marte figures to be the Pirates greatest participant.

Jameson Taillon is a possible frontline starter. USATSI

Are the youngsters all proper?

Maybe a very powerful growth in Pittsburgh this 12 months will revolve round their small city’s price of youthful gamers. The Pirates have greater than a dozen gamers with little to no MLB expertise who might see motion in 2018 and who might assist form their future.

Beginning with the place gamers, Josh Bell and Colin Moran determine to function the nook infielders most days. Bell held his personal as a 24-year-old, homering 26 occasions, posting a 108 OPS+, and ending third in Rookie of the 12 months Award voting. Moran, a part of the Cole commerce, has taken an extended, odd path to the majors since being drafted sixth general in 2013. The Pirates are banking on his mechanical modifications — he started elevating extra typically — transferring to the majors. He homered 18 time in 350 Triple-A plate appearances in 2017 — notable, given he’d homered 30 occasions in his first 1,618 minor-league journeys to the plate.

All through the season, that pair could possibly be joined by outfielders Austin Meadows, Jordan Luplow, and Jason Martin, in addition to infielders Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer. Meadows’s prospect shine has been decreased by accidents. As soon as seen as Andrew McCutchen’s apparent successor, he is appeared in additional than 100 video games in a season simply as soon as — and that was in 2015. Lupow and Martin, acquired within the Cole commerce, might flip into fourth-outfielder varieties. In the meantime, Newman and Kramer each have an out of doors shot at growing right into a beginning double-play combo.

On the mound, the Pirates will trot out a rotation that features Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, Trevor Williams, and certain Joe Musgrove. Taillon, outfitted with front-of-the-rotation stuff and previous big-league success, appears well-suited to imagine the position of workers ace. He handled a most cancers scare final season. Kuhl and Williams pitched higher than most realized final season.  The sinker-balling Kuhl has seen his velocity tick up, whereas Williams served as compensation from the Miami Marlins for since-fired pitching teacher Jim Benedict. Glasnow, Steven Brault, Nick Kingham, and Clay Holmes determine to offer extra rotation depth, and it is at the very least potential that Mitch Keller — the highest prospect within the system — and Taylor Hearn see the majors, too.

Principally, for those who like youthful gamers — even those that aren’t essentially thought of elite or above-average — then you definitely’ll most likely discover a number of Pirates price your curiosity at any given time.

Extra strikes to return?

Though McCutchen and Cole represented the Pirates’ high commerce chips, they may properly make one other sequence of strikes earlier than the deadline. Second baseman Josh Harrison’s team-friendly deal can pay him simply over $30 million via the 2020 season, whereas starter Ivan Nova will make lower than $20 million over the subsequent two years — a sum that would make him interesting for groups in search of a mid-rotation enhance. The Pirates might conceivably additionally discover takers for Corey Dickerson, Jordy Mercer, David Freese, Sean Rodriguez, and even perhaps Francisco Cervelli.

None of these offers are prone to be blockbusters, however they may return extra prospect depth to a system that already has loads.

Josh Harrison could finally discover himself on the transfer. Charles LeClaire / USA TODAY Sports activities

Possible lineup

The Pirates scored the third-least runs within the majors final season. Their lineup has solely a barely completely different look this 12 months, with Moran and Corey Dickerson slotting in.

2B Josh Harrison

LF Corey Dickerson

CF Starling Marte

1B Josh Bell

RF Gregory Polanco

3B Colin Moran

C Francisco Cervelli

SS Jordy Mercer

Bench: C Elias Daz, INF David Freese, UTL Sean Rodriguez, UTL Adam Frazier

Dickerson was a wise pick-up from the Tampa Bay Rays. He is been an above-average hitter all through his profession, and made final July’s All-Star Sport. Adam Frazier is a nifty bench piece, by the way in which, who ought to see time each within the outfield and on the infield. Jung-ho Kang’s standing stays unclear.

Possible rotation

Once more, largely the identical as final 12 months. Simply with Cole out and Musgrove in.

RHP Jameson Taillon

RHP Ivan Nova

RHP Chad Kuhl

RHP Trevor Williams

RHP Joe Musgrove

Everybody right here has the potential to be at the very least a back-end starter. Taillon has an actual likelihood to develop right into a no. 2, making him the workers ace by default.

Possible bullpen

The Pirates nonetheless have not signed a single free agent to a big-league deal. That is extra evident within the bullpen than wherever else. Do not be alarmed if you do not know many of those names.

Nearer: LHP Felipe Rivero

Setup: RHP George Kontos, RHP Michael Feliz

Center: RHP A.J. Schugel, RHP Dovydas Neverauskas, LHP Josh Smoker, RHP Kyle Crick, LHP Kevin Siegrist

Rivero is among the greatest left-handed relievers in baseball. Kontos was a nifty late-season seize from the San Francisco Giants. Feliz was yet one more a part of the Cole commerce. The Pirates have loads of selections for the opposite spots, so it is potential that the bullpen is staffed by the likes of Edgar Santana, Jack Leathersich, Bo Schultz, and so forth. Enjoyable occasions.

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from Usa Trending Sports – NFL | NCAA | NBA | MLB | NASCAR | UFC | WWE https://usatrendingsports.com/mlb/pittsburgh-pirates-2018-season-team-preview-shipwrecked-or-smooth-sailing-ahead/

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Thoughts on Playoffs, Coach Brind’Amour, Thornton (May 9)

Thoughts on Playoffs, Coach Brind’Amour, Thornton, and more…

We get a Game 7 in the second round, and it’s from the series that features the regular season’s top two teams.

So who do you like? As I’ve mentioned before, it depends on what kind of game it is. If Winnipeg can go on another three-goal rapid fire run, then I think they’ve got this one in the bag. The Predators simply don’t have the offensive explosiveness of the Jets. But if Nashville can slow it down to a tight-checking defensive chess match, then I am convinced they will get it done in front of the home fans.

My Game 7 prediction: I picked Nashville in 7, so I have to stay with that pick. In terms of the future, though, Winnipeg is set up very nicely and has shown in this series that they are good enough to be the dominant team in the Central next season and possibly beyond. They’ve got a top-6 forward unit that might be second to none, they’ve got Connor Hellebuyck about to hit his prime, and they didn’t get heavily involved in free agency while the rebuild was carried forward from Atlanta (more on free agency later).

Much has been made about Pekka Rinne’s struggles during the playoffs. But one positive about his playoff performance: he bounces back. Since last season he is 10-2 with a sub-1.50 GAA and plus-.950 SV% with two shutouts after being tagged with an L in the previous game.

Nashville is not the best option for high-end scoring in playoff pools. After all, only one Predator (Filip Forsberg) was in the top 10 in playoff scoring last season, even though they made it to the final. There were even two players who were knocked out the round before (Erik Karlsson, Ryan Getzlaf) who finished ahead of Forsberg in scoring. But if you’re in a deep playoff pool that goes 3-4 lines deep or allows substitutions, pick lots of Nashville players. Their scoring is more spread out than that of other teams.

Just when I mentioned Roman Josi was struggling, he records two helpers in Game 6. No such luck for Kyle Turris, who has come up small during the playoffs. He has yet to score a postseason goal and has been held without a point over his last four games.

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Well, the Capitals finally slayed their dragon… or exorcised their demon… or whatever you want to call it. The Capitals/Penguins rivalry reminds me a bit of the Canucks/Blackhawks rivalry from 2009 to 2011. The Blackhawks knocked the Canucks out in the second round in both 2009 and 2010, then the Canucks needed Game 7 overtime to finally vanquish the Blackhawks. As much of a sour taste that the Canucks were left with in that Stanley Cup Final against Boston, imagine, Canucks fans, if their season ended in that 2011 first-round series with Chicago.

Even if the Capitals are swept by Tampa Bay in the conference final, I think they have to be satisfied with their season just for finally getting past Pittsburgh. No more talk about whether Alex Ovechkin is traded, which is absurd if you consider his actual lifetime postseason stats. Barry Trotz gets to keep his job for at least one more season, which is also absurd if you consider how many games he’s coached. But if I’m a Capitals’ fan, I’d be a bit worried about a possible letdown after that series win. Plus Tampa has only lost twice during the postseason. I still like the Bolts as my Stanley Cup winner – even more so than before.

As for the Penguins, they still have to be in the mix for teams that can win the Stanley Cup in 2018-19. Two consecutive seasons of going the distance should have taken a toll on a team that has already had more than its share of injuries to star players. Just keep in mind that their entire first-unit power play (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist, and Kris Letang) is now all over the age of 30. Time sure flies. Something to think about for your fantasy team as well.

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The most significant news story of the day involved the Hurricanes naming Rod Brind’Amour the new head coach and Don Waddell the new general manager. Mike Clifford covered the Fantasy Take on the Carolina moves earlier today.

I remember Brind’Amour bringing somewhat surprising fantasy value very late in his career, particularly as a faceoff specialist. As an assistant coach, Brind’Amour must have had at least some influence in the Hurricanes’ top-ranked faceoff percentage last season (54.1%). All of Jordan Staal, Derek Ryan, Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask, and Marcus Kruger all had a faceoff success rate of at least 54.5%. Staal was the most effective of the group with a 56.6% faceoff success rate and as a top-15 league option in faceoffs won (757). This strong faceoff success rate seemed to be a factor in the Canes’ strong advanced stats.

If new owner Tom Dundon wants to know why his team is not championship caliber, perhaps he should consider his team’s lack of a true number one scoring center. We know what we’re going to get out of Staal as a second or third-line option, but what about Lindholm or Rask? Will Martin Necas one day have what it takes to be a first-line center? Will Waddell have to make a blockbuster trade for a center, which would no doubt be pushed by the owner? As Mike said, it will be up to Brind’Amour to get the most out of Lindholm and Rask in particular. Next season will be telling in terms of what we should expect from them going forward.

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Now that the Sharks have been eliminated, we have found out exactly what caused Joe Thornton to miss the last 2+ months of the regular season. Even though Thornton’s production wasn’t bad when he was healthy (36 points in 47 games), he has to be considered a significant injury risk going forward after tearing ligaments in both knees.

Is it possible that Thornton slowed linemate Joe Pavelski while he was in the lineup?

Pavelski until January 23 (Thornton’s last game): 34 points in 47 games (0.72 PTS/GP)

Pavelski after January 23 (Thornton out for the season): 32 points in 35 games (0.91 PTS/GP)

This mattered for Pavelski owners because they drafted him expecting the post-Thornton points-per-game numbers. But prior to Thornton’s injury, Pavelski was on pace for 59 points.

As much as Thornton says he wants to be back with the Sharks and is willing to take a pay cut to be back, there’s always the possibility that he could be playing for a different team next season (some possibilities here). Or not at all if the knees don’t hold up. And as nice as it would be to see Thornton return for one more season in teal, him not returning might actually make sense for the Sharks.

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Some other injury news to keep in the ol’ memory bank: Cory Schneider is likely to miss training camp after having hip surgery. Recovery times aren’t set in stone, so Schneider’s five-month recovery time could change. But it’s also possible that we could see more of Keith Kinkaid to start the season.

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If you need any convincing why it’s not a good idea to spend like crazy on free agency, take a peek at the 2016 free agent signings. Here are your signings that were worth at least $18 million total and involved a player switching teams. Tell me if you think any of these players significantly improved their teams.  

Kyle Okposo

Troy Brouwer

David Backes

Milan Lucic

Frans Nielsen

Loui Eriksson

Andrew Ladd

Only one of these players (Backes) played for a playoff team, and he’s already one of the most searched buyouts on Cap Friendly. The best signing that offseason – by far – was Eric Staal signing with the Wild for three years at $10.5 million. Those are the kind of contracts that teams need to sign. 

I’ll agree with Dobber’s take on free agency except for one minor point: It’ll take just two years, not three, before fans will be searching for buyouts on many of these players.

What I’ve learned from this that I can apply to fantasy: If you play in an auction league, avoid bidding wars unless you have money to burn. It’s probably not the end of the world to have a bad contract or two on your team, but aim to have as many great value contracts as you possibly can.

In a salary cap league, the perfect time to bail on many of these players would have been right after they signed those contracts. Something to consider for the upcoming group of UFAs. Just because NHL teams sign them for big money doesn’t mean you have to.

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For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-thoughts-on-playoffs-coach-brindamour-thornton-may-9/