#is shipping just THAT cheap on the Japanese side of the equation?

[narutomaki]

hey genuine question here: why does it cost me nearly 80$ to ship art from an American store regardless if size but under 1kg ... but it (would) costs me under 60$ to get 0.7kg of (art) stuff from Japan? both I'd be getting charged the same amount of import fees on if any.

[austinpanda]

Dad Letter 052420

24 May, 2020

Dear Dad--

It still feels weird typing “2020.” Did we all really make it that far into the future, and why did we get a pandemic instead of the flying cars we were all promised? Things here in the trailer in Maine are, actually, pretty fine. I decided I wasn’t feeling guilty and fiscally irresponsible enough, so I bought myself something I always wanted. More on that in a minute.

So, coronavirus! I hope you’re continuing to stay indoors and wearing a mask when shopping. We’ve lost 100,000 Americans to it by now, more than a 9/11 worth every single day. And it’s hard to talk about it without the conversation becoming quickly tainted with everybody’s favorite subject, politics! And I learned a long time ago not to talk politics with other human beings, just because it can be such a bull in the China shop of my sanity. This enables me to offer advice which is completely free from any ideology, other than the belief that staying alive is more desirable than the alternative, so: stay safe out there, and wear a mask, and wash your hands, and don’t french kiss strangers, etc.

A few months ago, I became conscious of the fact that I’ve never owned a decent stereo. I owned a large stereo, but it was a large and cheap and awful stereo. You helped me move it into and out of my dorm room back in San Marcos once or twice! It was made by Soundesign. It had big tall floor speakers, but each speaker box contained only a single mid-range speaker cone thingy inside, no woofers or tweeters, and the whole thing was a piece of shit that fell apart soon after college.

I got it in my head that I wanted an amp/receiver, and two floor speakers. I think of it as the box that makes the sounds, that you plug the speakers into, and the speakers. I wanted to get them used. Now that I’m no longer in an apartment, I wanted the option to crank my music up, if I ever decide I needed to. Generally I don’t need to. I figured, if I kept it to a hundred bucks, and get a good deal, I could justify it. It’d be my first grown-up, full-sized stereo with nice, big, midlife crisis speakers, and it would probably be the last stereo I needed for this lifetime, unless something very unlikely happens, like the cat sitting on it and peeing down into it. I wanted an amplifier/radio and speakers that were non-embarrassing.

Since I wanted used, I started with eBay. The problem with eBay is that, after you buy the shit, they have to send you the shit, and the cost of shipping just the receiver was often comparable to the amount I was hoping to spend on the receiver itself. If the receiver costs that much to ship, imagine what shipping the floor speakers would cost! With that, eBay removed itself from the equation.

Next was Craigslist, kind of the digital equivalent of local classified ads, only I’d be searching the whole state of Maine. Immediately I noticed that there were lots and lots of ads for exactly what I wanted. Lots of amps and speakers and other stereo components, all used, but tested and working, and all from the same area. At this point, my brain pointed out to me that facts were suggesting the existence of a single human being somewhere in Maine, who had a big garage that was full of used stereo components, which he obviously bought, sold, and collected. I figured this might be my guy. I picked one of his classified ads, for a Pioneer amplifier, and just emailed the guy in response to that ad, stating that I wanted a used amp/receiver and two used floor speakers, and that I wanted to spend $125, and I was okay driving to pick it up.

I don’t know why I increased my budget to $125, and it’s part of the reason why doing this while unemployed is so financially irresponsible on my part, and I feel so guilty for doing this. (My plan is to continue feeling guilty until I start working again, at which point the guilt over money spent on luxuries during the time of unemployment will, I assume, disappear on its own.) Also, though I never really articulated this to myself, if I tried to think like a guy in Maine who bought and sold stereo equipment, I’d sell someone a stereo that wouldn’t look embarrassing for a hundred bucks. But if they cared to spend just a bit more, I’d want to give them something better than just not embarrassing; I’d want to give them something that was actually decent.

And I got lucky; I was right. The guy who’d been placing the ads on Craigslist was a guy who lived on the other side of Maine, who had a huge barn garage, where he collected, bought, and sold used stereo equipment. I asked him for an amp/receiver and two floor speakers for $125, and he emailed back to say sure, he’d put something together and email me again. When he emailed again, what he offered was a receiver/amplifier made by Onkyo, which is Japanese, and two floor speakers made by KLH with 12-inch woofers. That would, in theory, provide enough audio power to lift my trailer clear off its foundation and send it hurtling into space.

It was a three-hour drive. The guy’s name was Mike, his barn of a garage was an audiophile’s dream, and his house was a no-shit big-ass geodesic dome. Then a three-hour drive back.

Long story short (too late) I got a helluva deal. The guy was not pleased to read the back label on the receiver and find that it was assembled in Malaysia, but it’s a good brand, and I don’t actually care where the shit’s made. The speakers are big and heavy and wonderful, and the cat is already getting used to sharpening his claws on the front, to my horror. It sounds wonderful. My financial shame is ameliorated somewhat by the fact that I really got a great deal.

I cleaned everything with Clorox wipes to get the plague off it, then cleaned the stereo with Q-tips and distilled water because it’s now my precious new baby and I want it sparkling. Thank goodness we have some good radio stations, including three NPR stations, out here in deep space. The first time Stevie Wonder’s “Superstition” came on the radio, and I turned it up a little bit, I felt like I was hearing all the instruments for the first time. It was really something! And $125 isn’t much more than I spend on groceries each week, so...perhaps I’m not an idiot for doing this. I’m going to enjoy this shit for the rest of my days.

That was the most exciting thing that’s happened to me in a while, and the farthest I’ve driven since driving here from Texas. By the way, I sent the guy a nice email after, telling him how I’d set up the stereo and it was working and sounded wonderful, and thanking him again for giving me such a good deal. I told him that, between his extremely valuable stereo collection and his geodesic dome house, he seemed like someone who probably had some good stories to tell. He replied that it was unfortunate that I lived so far away, and it was his pleasure to present me with such a bargain.

I’ve now spent so much time talking about the stupid stereo that I’ve now written more than I usually write in a typical Sunday letter, but I haven’t touched on anything else yet, so here’s a bullet list:

- We had a hot day! It got up to 89 degrees inside and stayed there for hours. In Maine, that isn’t as bad as it sounds. Sitting in front of a fan pretty much does the trick. It caused the cat to lay about in strange places, where he’d never lain before, because it was too chilly.

- We have spotted more birds! Also I read an article about how, with everyone stuck at home, they’re noticing bird populations exploding! (They’re not exploding. People just aren’t very observant; the birds were there the whole time.) Birdwatching is becoming hugely popular.

- We have had a new visitor, a chipmunk. Never seen a chipmunk before, that I recall. I don’t even know if they exist in Texas. This one keeps coming back to eat our bird treats, so we gave it a name: Old Deuteronomy.

- There’s a lady in the trailer park who occasionally goes off her meds, and starts sending letters to the landlord accusing her neighbors of being drug using fornicators! I wonder how long I’ll be able to escape her attention. I don’t care for those who would pass judgement on my drug use and fornicating.

More next weekend, and stay safe! All my love to you both!

[bargainjordan-blog]

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[nicholasswinford095-blog]

Back to basics: During the recent housing boom, many Americans made unwise financial decisions that boosted demand for mortgages to new heights. Until memories of this nightmare fade, consumers will get back to the basics of using mortgages simply to buy homes. Mortgage bankers, too, must get back to the basics of finding business in markets with the right balance of opportunity and risk.

In the early 1990s, the end of the Cold War ironically brought economic hardship to Southern California, home to the big defense contractors whose workers built the fighter planes and ships that bankrupted the old Soviet Union. The defense industry had boosted the California economy for decades, and had buoyed the local housing industry. But during the early nineties, defense success gave way to local recession as Pentagon orders receded, airplane production plummeted, and tens of thousands of engineers and machinists found themselves out of work. * Seeing no future in an area overrun with other unemployed engineers, many of these Californians left for nearby spots such as Seattle; Portland Oregon; Boise, Idaho; Phoenix; Albuquerque, New Mexico; and Salt Lake City. In two years, more than 1 million people left California. As they left, they sold their homes--some of the most expensive homes in the United States. Over the previous decade, home prices in Southern California had doubled. * When these economic refugees arrived in their newly adopted cities, they were pleasantly surprised. Armed with the equity from selling their California homes, they could buy an even better home and still have money left over for a new car, a boat, furniture--the works. Home prices in Seattle were only 60 percent of what they had been in Los Angeles; in Phoenix they were just 40 percent; and in Salt Lake City, only 30 percent.* This was the first wave of Americans who, quite by accident, were able to turn homeownership--until then considered an expensive necessity--into a financial bonanza. [ILLUSTRATION OMITTED] A rising tide lifts all boats Home prices rise in a local market if there is a sudden increase in demand--whether from Japanese investors in Hawaii; pipeline workers in Anchorage, Alaska; financial managers in New York; software engineers in Austin, Texas; or dot-com millionaires in San Francisco. Americans are a highly mobile lot, and will easily move wherever job opportunities present themselves--as the California Defense industry workers demonstrated. A doubling of home prices, as in Southern California, had been seen before in Texas, Hawaii and the Northeast. These booms--invariably followed by a bust--were isolated phenomena, however, directly linked to the economic prosperity of individual markets. Other homeowners could only look on with envy at annual price increases in the double-digits. But the rise in home prices that began in the late 1990s and crested in 2006 was quite different. Though stronger in some places than others, it included most major markets in the United States. Between 2000 and 2006, 66 percent of American homeowners saw the value of their home increase by at least one-third and 35 percent saw that value more than double (see Figure 1). Figure 1 Home-Price Increases, 2000-2006 City Percent Atlanta, GA 31% Baltimore, MD 110% Boston, MA 68% Charlotte, NC 28% Chicago, IL 58% Denver, CO 26% Detroit, Ml 16% Houston, TX 33% Las Vegas, NV 118% Los Angeles, CA 158% Miami, FL 164% Minneapolis, MN 57% New York, NY 97% Philadelphia, PA 84% Phoenix, AZ 112% Sacramento, CA 122% Seattle, WA 72% St. Louis, MO 43% Washington, DC 128% National Average 59% SOURCE: FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY (FHFA) HOME PRICE INDEX Not everyone participated in the price boom, because some local markets always face economic difficulties. Many smaller markets, in particular, lost jobs and population during that period. This unusual economic phenomenon--a general rise in home prices without a sharp increase in inflation--flowed from a number of factors, _Nonsuch_Park_-_geograph.org.uk_-_1733012.jpg/640px-Surrey including policy decisions by the Federal Reserve to encourage low interest rates, low inflation due to cheap imports from China, efforts by the government to expand homeownership and demand from investors for securities with higher returns. Low inflation allowed the Fed to keep interest rates low. Low interest rates made mortgages affordable to a larger segment of the population. Low interest rates increased demand for investments with higher returns. Demand from Wall Street expands mortgage lending The desire for higher investment returns, initially from institutional investors such as pension funds that have long-term obligations, brought a new source of funding to the housing industry and skewed the economics of mortgage lending. Subprime mortgages had until somewhat recently been a high-risk specialty product, but Wall Street magically turned them into a seemingly low risk security with high returns, and investor demand exploded. Not only pension funds, but banks and hedge funds--and the Wall Street firms themselves--found the returns on these securities irresistible. Any pool of mortgages can be structured into tranches, some of which have high yields. But pools of mortgages with many high-risk loans provide, a much larger volume of the high yield tranches. Demand from Wall Street for high risk mortgages brought many new buyers into the home market, and coincidentally lowered underwriting standards for all mortgages. The outstanding amount of Wall Street-sponsored mortgage pools jumped from $400 billion in 2000 to $3 trillion in 2007, according to the Federal Reserve (see Figure 2). Figure 2 Mortgage Debt in Private Pools Year Debt ($ trillions) 2007 $3.0 2006 $2.8 2005 $2.1 2004 $1.5 2003 $0.6 2002 $0.5 2001 $0.4 2000 $0.4 SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE Whether due to government policies or Wall Street demand for riskier mortgages, the number of people able to buy a home expanded rapidly in the last decade. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the national homeownership rate increased from 64 percent in the mid-1990s to 69 percent in 2006--about 6 million extra homes (and mortgages). Homeowners speculate in real estate The new demand for homes since 2000 reinforced local housing shortages that naturally arise in a mobile society when the economy is expanding, and pushed up home prices in many local markets. At the same time, many individuals who had witnessed the dot-com stock market crash in 2001 pulled their money out of stocks and, with interest rates low, looked for alternative investments. Real estate seemed like a good buy. With the high leverage supplied by a mortgage with a low interest rate, investors needed only a small increase in home prices to get a huge return, and prices had risen steadily for years. While few Americans consider themselves speculators, many were willing to invest in real estate in the guise of buying a vacation home, an eventual retirement home or a time-share condo. In many vacation markets, almost half of all home purchases in recent years were due to such soft speculation (see Figure 3). Figure 3 Percentage of Home Purchases Made by Investors (2005) City Percent Myrtle Beach, SC 64% Panama City, FL 47% Naples, FL 46% Wilmington, NC 41% Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 41% Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 40% Vero Beach, FL 40% Orlando, FL 29% Boise, ID 28% Las Vegas, NV 27% Atlantic City, NJ 27% Charleston, SC 26% Phoenix, AZ 26% Honolulu, HI 25% Albuquerque, NM 22% Austin, TX 20% SOURCES: HOME MORTGAGE DISCLOSURE ACT (HMDA) DATA, FEDERAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS EXAMINATION COUNCIL (FFIEC) Your house as a cash machine With the forces of government policy, Wall Street demand, an expanding economy and genteel real estate speculation all aligned on one side of the equation, it's not surprising that home prices rose year after year in all but the most economically depressed areas. The result was that the majority Americans saw a large increase in the apparent value of their home. Although only the very small percent that actually sold their home were able to achieve that gain, everyone else thought the value of their home had increased by a similar amount. And so did their bankers. And they now had a simple way to tap that value with out moving to a cheaper market, as the California defense workers had been forced to do: They got a home-equity loan or refinanced their home with a larger mortgage and took out the difference in cash. According to the Federal Reserve, mortgage debt on single-family homes increased from $5 trillion in 2000 to about $11 trillion in 2007 (see Figure 4), and about $3 billion of this increase was due to home-equity loans and cash-out refinancings. Figure 4 Single-Family Mortgage Debt Year Debt ($ trillions) 2007 $11.1 2006 $10.4 2005 $9.4 2004 $8.2 2003 $7.2 2002 $6.4 2001 $5.6 2000 $5.1 SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE Fragility of home pricing Like prices for many commodities and financial investments, current prices for homes are set by the most recent buyers and sellers--of whom there are surprisingly few. In a typical year, only about 5 percent of the homes in a market are sold, which means that at any one time only about 1 percent of homes are actually on the market. Whether those homes are sold for a higher or lower price determines the value of the other 99 percent. Relatively small changes in the local economic situation also can have an outsized effect on home prices. In a typical housing market with average population growth of 1 percent per year, home builders can match the demand for new homes fairly easily. But when an influx of new jobs pushes annual population growth up to just 2 percent, demand exceeds the ability of home builders to increase the supply quickly enough and home prices rise rapidly. A brief price history of the bust Homeowners took money out of their homes and bankers of all stripes let them do it, because of the hope on all sides that home prices would continue to go up (but in any case would not go down). The fragility of home pricing works both ways, however, so it didn't require much of a slowing of demand for prices to stop their quick rise and begin a long descent. The fact that real estate markets are local is emphasized by the very scattered way in which the home-price boom came to an end. First to peak were markets that had not seen much of an increase in home prices since 2000, mainly because of fundamental problems with the local economy. Ann Arbor, Michigan, was the first market to peak, in the second quarter of 2005, followed in the next quarter by Detroit, Cleveland and other markets in Michigan and Ohio. The fourth quarter of 2005 was the peak for three of the California markets that had seen the biggest boom--Santa Barbara, Sacramento and Salinas, where home prices had more than doubled. The first quarter of 2006 was the peak for more California markets, including Modesto, San Diego and Santa Rosa. It was also the peak for the first Florida boom markets--Melbourne and Vero Beach. And it was the end of the boom for Reno and Carson City, Nevada. The second and third quarters of 2006 were the peak for large numbers of markets in Florida and California, including Fort Myers, Bradenton, Naples, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach in Florida; and Anaheim, San Jose, San Francisco and Riverside-San Bernardino in California. The fourth quarter of 2006 saw the end of the boom for Los Angeles and Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida; and the spread of the end to other parts of the country, such as Las Vegas, Phoenix and Washington, D.C. It wasn't until the first quarter of 2007 that the end hit in Chicago, the New York City area and other parts of the Northeast; not until the second quarter that Miami, the last big boom market, hit its peak; not until the fourth quarter of 2007 that Seattle, Portland and other parts of the Northwest were affected; and not until the first quarter of 2008 that the recession brought about a general end to price increases in the rest of the country. Short-term problems for mortgage bankers Mortgage bankers face two problems in the near term--finding new business and determining the risk of new business. Both problems are related to home prices, because demand for mortgages is weak in markets where home prices are still falling--that's why they're still falling--and because the risk that homeowners will default on their mortgage increases if home prices fall after a mortgage is written. The Local Market Monitor forecasts home prices in 315 markets and currently doesn't see a national trend toward price recovery. Prices are rising modestly in some markets, but will continue to fall in others. Generally, the markets that had the greatest boom in prices have also had the greatest bust, and in a number of these markets prices will continue to fall for several years (see Figures 5 and 6). Figure 5 Home-Price Changes to Maximum Value (2000-2009) Metro Area Boom Bust Miami, FL 160% -30% Madera, CA 153% -30% Bakersfield, CA 151% -35% Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 150% -39% Fresno, CA 148% -32% Naples, FL 147% -39% Los Angeles, CA 146% -25% Fort Lauderdale, FL 146% -33% West Palm Beach, FL 141% -32% Port St. Lucie, FL 139% -40% Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 137% -41% Yuba City, CA 137% -39% Merced, CA 134% -56% Palm Bay-Melbourne, FL 131% -31% Modesto, CA 131% -48% Santa Ana-Anaheim, CA 130% -26% SOURCE: FHFA HOME PRICE INDEX Figure 6 Home-Price Forecast (Q3 2009-Q3 2010) City Percent Atlanta, GA -6% Baltimore, MD -7% Boston, MA -3% Charlotte, NC -4% Chicago, IL -7% Denver, CO -2% Detroit, Ml -9% Houston, TX 0% Las Vegas, NV -16% Los Angeles, CA -4% Miami, FL -16% Minneapolis, MN -4% New York, NY -5% Philadelphia, PA -4% Phoenix, AZ -17% Sacramento, CA -7% Seattle, WA -9% St. Louis, MO -2% Washington, DC -1% National Average -5% SOURCE: LOCAL MARKET MONITOR Even after prices stabilize, however, demand in many markets will never be close to its former volume, because the former volume was driven by second-home buying and speculation that have been wiped out for the next decade. Many smaller markets in California and, especially, in Florida, fall into this category of disappearing volume. But even large markets such as Las Vegas and Phoenix are not immune from the problem. Although home prices have fallen substantially in many markets, the risk that prices will fall another 20 percent or more is fairly high in some places. How much further prices will fall varies from market to market, and depends on how high prices still are above a sustainable level we call the Equilibrium Home Price. In some markets, such as Los Angeles and Modesto, California, home prices exceeded the Equilibrium Home Price by more than 100 percent at the height of the boom. So, even though prices have already dropped 25 percent in Los Angeles and 48 percent in Modesto, further price declines are almost certain. On the other hand, prices in markets such as Minneapolis and Denver are now close to the Equilibrium Home Price, so we don't expect much more of a decline (see Figure 7). Figure 7 Excess of Current Home Price Over Equilibrium Price Metro Area Percent Atlanta, GA 19% Baltimore, MD 27% Boston, MA 27% Charlotte, NC 10% Chicago, IL 6% Denver, CO 11% Detroit, Ml 6% Houston, TX -1% Las Vegas, NV -18% Los Angeles, CA 39% Miami, FL 28% Minneapolis, MN 15% New York, NY 32% Philadelphia, PA 18% Phoenix, AZ 14% Sacramento, CA 13% Seattle, WA 11% St. Louis, MO 9% Washington, DC 29% SOURCE: LOCAL MARKET MONITOR A market growth strategy for mortgage bankers inventory companies london For the next decade, until memories of the bust finally fade, consumers will get back to basics about homes and mortgages--and mortgage bankers should do the same. Rather than finding mortgage business just about everywhere, they will mainly find business in markets with growing populations and growing economies. They will find the least risk in markets where home prices will increase at a moderate level. And they will be able to assess market risk by monitoring how far home prices are above the Equilibrium Home Price. Population growth is difficult to measure and can change rapidly, but a fair approximation is given by job growth. Right now the job situation is grim throughout much of the country, and some markets such as Las Vegas will not jump back to high levels of growth when the recession is over. As always, there will be winners and losers, with some markets faring better or worse as the economy redistributes job opportunities. Markets in Michigan and Ohio linked to the auto industry, for example, will probably have job losses and population stagnation for some years to come, while auto-related markets in the South will grow. Markets that will have the most difficulty emerging from the recession are likely to be those that formerly had high growth but have lost large numbers of jobs, often in construction. This unfavorable swing has been greatest in markets such as Prescott, Arizona; Boise, Idaho; Phoenix; Cape Coral-Fort Myers and Naples, Florida; Las Vegas; and Charlotte, North Carolina (see Figure 8). Figure 8 Growth Markets Unlikely to Recover Quickly (Job Growth in Prior 12 Months) Market July 2006 July 2009 Change Prescott, AZ 7.3% -8.9% -16% Boise, ID 7.0% -7.4% -14% Phoenix, AZ 5.2% -7.8% -13% Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 4.6% -7.8% -12% Las Vegas, NV 5.2% -6.6% -12% Naples, FL 5.1% -6.4% -11% Provo, UT 6.2% -4.8% -11% Charlotte, NC 4.5% -6.2% -11% Portland, OR 3.3% -5.8% -9% Orlando, FL 3.4% -5.6% -9% Raleigh, NC 5.1% -3.7% -9% Salt Lake City, UT 4.4% -4.2% -9% SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS On the other hand, markets likely to recover best and experience good population growth are those that had moderate growth before the recession and saw only a moderate drop in jobs. These include the Austin, Fort Worth, San Antonio and Dallas markets in Texas; but also

Little Rock, Arkansas; Tallahassee, Florida; and Chattanooga, Tennessee (see Figure 9). Figure 9 Markets with Good Growth Prospects (Job Growth in Prior 12 Months) Market July 2006 July 2009 Change Lafayette, IN 2.2% 0.8% -1% Des Moines, IA 2.3% -0.9% -3% Fayetteville, AR 2.8% -0.5% -3% Little Rock, AR 2.3% -1.6% -4% Austin, TX 3.7% -0.2% -4% Fort Worth, TX 2.9% -1.4% -4% San Antonio, TX 3.7% -0.8% -5% Dallas, TX 3.0% -1.6% -5% Tallahassee, FL 2.4% -2.7% -5% Richmond, VA 2.0% -3.4% -5% Chattanooga, TN 2.3% -3.1% -5% Tacoma, WA 2.9% -2.7% -6% SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS For the next few years, home prices will provide the best indication of where mortgage business will be growing best. In markets with renewed job growth, new jobs will initially go to workers who already live there and don't need new homes. But the behavior of home prices will signal where demand for new housing--and therefore new mortgages--is strongest. We're still in a holding pattern, waiting for clear evidence that individual markets have bottomed out. By next year, I expect to see stronger prices in dozens of markets. In both the short and longer term, as distortions of supply and demand get worked out and then reappear in some markets, the level of home prices compared with the Equilibrium Home Price will give the best indication of the risk that prices will fall again in some future boom and bust. Above all, in this very difficult period as the recession and its aftermath reshape local economies, mortgage bankers must stick to the basics to find those markets where future demand will be strongest. Ingo Winzer is president and founder of Local Market Monitor Inc., Cary. North Carolina, a leading real estate forecasting solution. Local Market Monitor equips mortgage investors, banks, home builders and insurance companies with an independent risk and investment perspective. Winzer has more than 20 years of expertise in analyzing real estate trends. He can be reached at info@localmarketmonitor.com. For more information. visit www.localmarketmonitor.com. https://www.thefreelibrary.com/Backtobasics:Duringtherecenthousingboom,manyAmericansmade...-a0211021230

[cubaverdad]

Here's What Cuba's Car Scene Looks Like In 2017

Here's What Cuba's Car Scene Looks Like In 2017 Jonathan Harper Cuba feels more in flux now than it has in decades. Fidel Castro's death, the repeal of the "wet foot, dry foot" policy and eased restrictions on capitalism mean rapid changes for a country distinctly shaped by a Cold War that ended decades ago. At the same time airplanes full of tourists are landing in Cuba on direct flights from the U.S. for the first time in decades, opening up a floodgate of incoming dollars. So where does that leave Cuba's eclectic assortment of cars? There's been some progress in expanding access to personal transportation in Cuba, but it has been halting. In 2014 the government abolished a system that required citizens to attain a permit to buy a car, and loosened restrictions on new car imports. The new system fell flat when markups equating to four to five times the base price left supposedly cheap cars, like a Peugeot hatchback, with an astronomical price of $85,000 U.S. In a country where a good state job pays $20 a month, a new car would not be a realistic goal within 100 lifetimes of saving for most Cubans. I went down to Cuba recently, and while I was there I decided to take stock of the country's famously unique car culture. Roughly the size of the New York metropolitan area and with a population of 11 million, there are an estimated 60,000 pre-1959 American cars still plying the Cuban streets. An easing of the U.S. embargo could could have dramatic effects on the overall Cuban automotive landscape. Original American Classics What I found is that the majority of vehicles in Cuba tend to fall into five categories: original American classics, non-original American classics, Russian cars and trucks, newer Chinese/Korean/Japanese vehicles, and European cars—the latter being the smallest percentage. Cubans are proud car owners, and yes, to maintain an American car for 50 years or more is a feat worthy of pride. Any given parking lot or square in Old Havana is a spilled Skittles bag of brightly colored metal, and every street echoes the deep thrum of Cadillacs, Chevys, Dodges, Buicks, Fords and more that originally rolled out of Detroit half a century ago. Most of the best-looking chromed-up convertibles and coupes are on full-time tourist duty, cruising the Malecon from Old Havana to Miramar night and day. Originality is key, since foreign tourists, myself included, always want the authentic experience. Absorbing the curved and blistered beauty of these classics, I began to pay more attention to the rougher-looking classics and the fact that the sound of their engines in many cases was quite different from the deep GUG-GUG of the originals. Original American classics are coveted and in most cases are on tourist duty. Without an official tally it's impossible to know exact numbers of originals vs non-originals, but to my eye and ear the originals seems to be more popular in touristy areas (duh). Regardless of political changes, we can assume these original American classics will remain part of Cuba's automotive workforce. Like stagecoaches on a dude ranch, these cars have become a part of Cuba's identity that visitors want to see and experience. These original cars also earn well for their owners. Non-Original American Classics But there's another, maybe better story beyond the postcard-perfect 1956 Ford Sunliners or the 1957 Chevy Bel Airs. Outside the touristy areas of Old Havana you see many more American classics, but in much rougher condition. These are the daily drivers, the backbone of Cuba's personal transportation fleet. Many do remain with their original engine and transmissions, but many others have been gutted and adapted in favor of newer Hyundai diesel engines. And some of those original V8 engines have been replaced by diesel motors from Russian cars, or even boats. Gas is very expensive in Cuba while diesel costs only about half as much. My ear became keenly tuned to the idle sound when encountering any American classic, more than half the time I was greeted to the unmistakable clatter of a diesel engine at idle. There were whole shops dedicated to fitting and fabricating newer, smaller, more efficient Korean engines and differentials to massive American classics. These non-originals are more likely to be customized on the interior as well. A peek inside in many cases revealed a DVD player sitting in the dash and various festive LED lights, a fascinating intersection of old and new that would have American classic car purists pulling their hair out. A dissolved U.S. embargo could flood the Cuban market with relatively cheap new American cars, which could in turn greatly reduce the numbers of these pre-revolution Franken-cars. As more new cars enter Cuba these jerry-rigged American classics will inevitably be passed down and essentially run into the ground. To think that Cuba's current youth may find transportation freedom in an inherited or gifted Hyundai powered 1953 Plymouth is a romantic thought indeed. Russian Cars & Trucks The age range of Cuba's Russian cars is predictable, falling squarely between the Cuban Revolution in 1959 and the fall of the Soviet Union in early '90s. In rural areas or national parks like Parque Guayanara, the only vehicles intrepid enough to tackle the deep jungle are enormous Russian ZIL troop transport trucks ferrying tourists out and back from beautiful natural caves and waterfalls. "Russian limousines," the Cubans call these behemoths. Large Russian KraZ semi tractor trailers still haul tobacco and other cargo around Cuba. But most prevalent is the boxy Lada sedan, which, as far as I can tell, really didn't get any design updates between 1970 and 1989. Many Ladas, Moskviches, and Volgas are used as taxis for the Cuban population and many more are used as private vehicles. Most seemed to be worn but running satisfactorily, but I did a see a few showroom quality examples of these multi-decade-old Soviet sedans. A warming of Cuban and American relations is not likely to bring new Russian vehicle imports into Cuba in the foreseeable future. Who knows, in thirty years the old Russian cars and trucks could take the role of the current American classics. Not likely, but anything is possible in the world where we live today. Chinese/Korean/Japanese Vehicles Kia and Hyundai seem to be doing well in Cuba. Without having access to definitive import numbers, it seemed that the highest number of the newest cars on Cuban roads were Korean. My family and I traveled in a mid-1990s Kia diesel van for our nine-day trip, and it was tired but did the job. For our excursion into the Guayanara Parque our required 4x4 transportation was a Hyundai Santa Fe. As we climbed the hills into the park we sailed past a late '50s Chevrolet Bel Air chugging up the hill full of passengers at about 1.5 mph, and I understood why we needed the 4x4 crossover. We saw other old American cars paused at the bottom of hills so the owners could pour cool water on the radiator before making the climb. At one point I was stunned to see what I thought was a Chevrolet Cruze, but it turned out to be a Chinese built Geely. Sans badges I would have a very difficult time differentiating the Chevrolet from the Geely; it was a near carbon copy. Since 2009 the Cuban government has been importing Geely vehicles for use as police cars, taxis, and rental vehicles. I spotted one single Mitsubishi Lancer, and a small handful of classic Toyota Land Cruisers outside Havana. Counter to U.S. market share, the Japanese seem to have a smaller portion of the pie in Cuba. Asian automakers seem to have good relations with the Cuban government regardless of the U.S. embargo. It would be a safe bet to say that Korean and Chinese manufacturers will continue to expand their imports into Cuba as more Cubans are financially able to purchase new cars. European Cars The majority of European vehicles spotted in Cuba were older Mercedes-Benzes. The W123 and W124 Mercedes E-class from the late '80s and early '90s were the most popular Euros, but still quite rare. The newest cars I saw in the whole trip were current generation Mercedes C200s, and most seemed to be rentals. In Havana on our last night a black E-class deposited some affluent-looking Russians outside a restaurant. That was probably the most expensive car seen on the whole trip. One single BMW cruised past the beach at Playa Giron (The Bay of Pigs)—a red E30 coupe. Down a quiet alley in Old Havana a B7 Audi A4 sat with sun-damaged hood paint and body repair on the front fender that was made obvious by the splash of matte blue primer. I couldn't help but imagine the perfectly molded Audi front fender repair was likely hand-measured and hammered. Pre-revolution European cars were rare, limited to Mercedes W120 sedans: Fiats, mostly 500s. Alfa Romeo seemed to have sent at least one ship full of cars some time during the '80s; I spotted a few 159s and one single Milano. French cars and vans from Peugeot and Citroen exist in small numbers, owned by those willing and able to pay the astronomical markups following the 2014 change in ownership rules. I kept having exciting daydreams, hoping to see one of these big old American original classics doing a tire-slaying smokey burnout in the middle of the Malecon with waves crashing in the background. But then it occurred to me that no Cuban in their right mind would waste tires so frivolously. The simple fact that the roads are in such a state of decay, to the point that speeds are dictated more by the ruts and potholes than the marked signs. Most of the best old cars were piloted around gingerly, 30 to 40mph, by their middle-aged Cuban padrones. When tourists jump out of classic taxis, the drivers always reach across to the passenger side to keep the door from being slammed too hard. They close those doors like it's a baby's bedroom and the kid has just gone to sleep. In Cuba, nothing is really what it seems with these Korean-powered American classics, but it's endearing as hell when you realize this is about the only place on earth with a car landscape dictated by 60 years of complex geopolitical jockeying. It should be fascinating to see what that looks like in the decades to come. Jonathan "JBH" Harper is a freelance journalist and photographer based in Los Source: Here's What Cuba's Car Scene Looks Like In 2017 - http://ift.tt/2l50l3k via Blogger http://ift.tt/2l4aX38