#imf loan

[nakeddeparture]

IMF approves $3 Billion for Barbados’ business partner, Ghana.

https://youtu.be/DjtTo9Dw340

The ‘I do’ from President Addo leaves him looking … ammmm… what’s the term I’m looking for here….ammmm, never mind. Naked!!

[worldinyourpalm]

चीन श्रीलंका ऋण स्थगन पर आईएमएफ के साथ अलग है | China and the IMF disagree on the debt moratorium for Sri Lanka;

आर्थिक संकट नेपाल, बांग्लादेश, मालदीव और म्यांमार के लिए एक सबक

जबकि भारत ने 10 साल की ऋण स्थगन और 1 5 साल की पुनर्गठन अवधि के साथ श्रीलंका के आईएमएफ के ऋण स्थिरता विश्लेषण का समर्थन करने का फैसला किया है, चीनी एक्जिम बैंक केवल 2 साल के ऋण स्थगन की पेशकश करने के इच्छुक हैं। यह द्वीप राष्ट्र के लिए और अधिक आर्थिक पीड़ा का कारण बन सकता है।

श्रीलंका और पाकिस्तान पिछले एक दशक में चीन के बेल्ट रोड इनिशिएटिव (BRI) के पोस्टर बॉय थे और सफेद हाथी परियोजनाओं को बनाने के लिए बीजिंग से उच्च ब्याज ऋण का इस्तेमाल किया। दोनों देश आज दिवालिया हो गए हैं क्योंकि चीन बढ़ते खाद्य और ईंधन संकट से निपटने के लिए अपनी अर्थव्यवस्थाओं को पुनर्जीवित करने के लिए BRI उत्साह नहीं दिखा रहा है। दोनों देश बहुत कमजोर अमेरिकी डॉलर विनिमय दर, उच्च मुद्रास्फीति और बहुत अधिक बैंक ब्याज दरों के साथ आर्थिक बैरल के निचले हिस्से को खंगाल रहे हैं। इन दोनों देशों में आर्थिक संकट नेपाल, बांग्लादेश, मालदीव और म्यांमार के लिए एक सबक है, जिनके राजनीतिक नेतृत्व अक्सर बुनियादी ढांचे के वित्तपोषण के लिए बीजिंग के दरवाजे पर उतरे हैं और चीन की कम्युनिस्ट पार्टी भारतीय उपमहाद्वीप में नौकरशाही में घुसपैठ करने में सक्षम है। लाभ।

जबकि भारतीय निर्यात-आयात बैंक ने लिखित में दिया है कि श्रीलंका को उसका वित्तपोषण और ऋण राहत आईएमएफ और पेरिस क्लब के अनुरूप होगा, चीनी निर्यात-आयात बैंक ने कोलंबो को यह स्पष्ट कर दिया है कि वह केवल पुनर्भुगतान प्रदान करेगा। आईएमएफ-पेरिस क्लब द्वारा अनुशंसित 10 साल की मोहलत के बजाय केवल दो साल के लिए अधिस्थगन। आईएमएफ और पेरिस क्लब ने सिफारिश की है कि श्रीलंकाई ऋण का पुनर्गठन 1 5 वर्षों में किया जाना चाहिए।

आईएमएफ पैकेज चीनी एक्ज़िम बैंक की शर्तों के कारण ख़तरे में

इसका मतलब यह है कि मार्च में श्रीलंका के लिए 2.9 बिलियन अमरीकी डालर (छह मासिक समीक्षा के साथ चार वर्षों में विस्तारित) का आईएमएफ पैकेज चीनी एक्ज़िम बैंक की शर्तों के कारण ख़तरे में है। एकमात्र अन्य विकल्प यह है कि आईएमएफ श्रीलंका को पूरी तरह से आर्थिक और राजनीतिक अराजकता से बचाने के लिए संप्रभ�� बकाया पर ऋण देने की अनुमति देता है।

श्रीलंका पर चीन का कम से कम 7 बिलियन अमेरिकी डॉलर का ऋण है, जिसमें चीनी विकास बैंक से ऋण भी शामिल है, यदि निजी ऋण को भी शामिल किया जाए तो यह संख्या दूसरे स्तर पर पहुंच जाएगी। अस्थिर उच्च ब्याज ऋण राजपक्षे शासन द्वारा वित्तीय खराबी और कुशासन के कारण है, जिसमें वर्तमान राष्ट्रपति रानिल विक्रमसिंघे भी अतीत में एक महत्वपूर्ण हिस्सा थे। राजपक्षों द्वारा वित्तीय अपव्यय के लिए धन्यवाद, चीनी उच्च ब्याज धन का उपयोग पूरे देश में अनिश्चित सफेद हाथी परियोजनाओं के निर्माण के लिए किया गया था।

हंबनटोटा बंदरगाह, मट्टाला राजपक्षे अंतर्राष्ट्रीय हवाई अड्डा और नोरोचोलाई पावर स्टेशन। 2022 में राजपक्षों के खिलाफ फैली जनता की नाराजगी ने द्वीप राष्ट्र में अति-वामपंथी राजनीतिक दलों को उठने दिया। मूल रूप से, पाकिस्तान की तरह, राजनीतिक मारक आर्थिक बदहाली से भी बदतर है......

[lasttarrasque]

The primary means of western empire

[indizombie]

Sri Lanka owes about $7bn (£5.7bn) to China and around $1bn to India. In February, both countries agreed to restructure their loans, giving Sri Lanka more time to repay them. Last month, the IMF agreed to lend Sri Lanka $3bn. That was on top of a $600m loan from the World Bank last year. Sri Lanka's government is currently negotiating its debt repayments with bondholders and creditors before the IMF reviews the situation in September.

Mariko Oi, ‘Sri Lanka crisis: Central bank lays out extent of economic problems’, BBC

[orchres]

y'all who call liberal westerners "neoliberals" really piss me tf off because that's not even an adjective applicable to ordinary people it is about the socioeconomic policy of privatisation of state assets. how can a person be a neoliberal please. you can be a neoliberal *leader* but hows a rando on the internet who's advocating assimilation as a way to avoid being oppressed neoliberal?

[godwin247]

Another $5 million world Bank loan for Nigeria

The FG is seeking a $500 million World Bank loan to improve basic education, aiming to boost learning and cut out-of-school numbers. This is according to the Programme Information Document for the loan project. Naira Metrics reports that the loan is part of the World Bank’s HOPE for Quality Basic Education for All initiative, which aims to improve learning outcomes and address the challenges of…

[ironmyrmidon]

I find it funny that western countries complain about Chinese development loans being debt traps China can exploit to advance their interests, when the IMF's official stated policy is that anyone who takes loans from the IMF has to let foreign investors completely fuck their economy.

[jobaaj]

🚨𝐀𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐨𝐚𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧🚨 $𝟕 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐌𝐅!!😩 🤔 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐝?!

💼✨ The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stepped in to support Pakistan once again!

💰 Pakistan is set to receive an immediate relief of $1 billion, with the rest being disbursed over the course of the next 3 years.

📈 Market sentiments soared with this announcement—so much so that the KSE-100 index hit a brand new lifetime high! 🚀

🧐𝐖𝐡𝐲? - Because Pakistan needs it. - Pakistan has suffered from fiscal mismanagement and poor governance since the mid-90s, leaving the economy crippled. - After the $3 billion loan in July last year, the country asked for another $7 billion to stabilize its economy and help tackle medium to long-term challenges. - However, the IMF has announced that the programme “will require sound policies and reforms”! 😲𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐲: - This is Pakistan’s 24th IMF bailout since 1958! - Pakistan is currently the IMF’s fifth largest debtor!🤣 - PM Shehbaz Sharif had announced earlier that this loan would be the last Pakistan ever takes.😬 ❓𝙲̲𝚊̲𝚗̲ 𝙿̲𝚊̲𝚔̲𝚒̲𝚜̲𝚝̲𝚊̲𝚗̲ 𝚜̲𝚞̲𝚛̲𝚟̲𝚒̲𝚟̲𝚎̲ 𝚠̲𝚒̲𝚝̲𝚑̲𝚘̲𝚞̲𝚝̲ 𝚕̲𝚘̲𝚊̲𝚗̲𝚜̲? Follow Jobaaj Stories (the media arm of Jobaaj.com Group for more)

Follow Jobaaj Stories (the media arm of Jobaaj Group) for more updates on this developing story and other important global events. We are dedicated to bringing you insightful stories that educate and inspire young professionals and students.

[justnownews]

Pakistan Excluded from IMF Loan Approval Calendar Till September 2024

Pakistan has not been included in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) calendar list of countries for which its Executive Board is scheduled to consider loan approvals or Article IV consultations until September 4, 2024. The IMF’s calendar shows upcoming consultations with Vietnam on August 30 and Togo on September 4, but Pakistan’s name is notably absent.This development follows the…

[thoughtlessarse]

Weeks since protests began, determined Kenyans continue going out to voice their frustrations with the government. But when demonstrators first took to the streets in June to rally against proposed tax hikes, it was not only President William Ruto and members of parliament who came under fire. In the protests that later turned deadly, placards were raised denouncing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, which were accused of causing the crisis. “IMF, World Bank, Stop the Modern Day Slavery,” one placard read. Across the capital, Nairobi, graffiti denouncing the organisations is visible even as protesters continue to demand Ruto resign. So what is the IMF’s role in the current crisis, and what are Kenyans now demanding from the organisation? What did the IMF do? For years, multilateral lenders, especially the IMF, have had bad reputations in African countries for providing loans to desperate countries based on stringent conditions that critics said have always disproportionately affected the poor. African leaders, including Ruto, have also criticised international lenders for what they said are disproportionately high interest rates compared with other developing countries. In Kenya, that anger is fresh because Ruto’s now-withdrawn tax hikes as well as similar legislation passed in 2023 are both linked to IMF loans as Kenya staggers under the weight of a heavy debt crisis. While some of the complaints against the IMF are true, African leaders are often to blame, Dumebi Oluwole, an economist with the data intelligence start-up Stears, told Al Jazeera. The higher interest rates, she said, are often because of records of default. The stringent conditions from lenders like the IMF have also been applied to distressed countries elsewhere, like Greece, which went through an economic crisis in 2009 and was partly bailed out by the lender, but African leaders often rely on options that hurt the majority, she said. “African leaders are the sellouts,” she said. “We all know that IMF loans come with conditions, but some leaders, when asked to raise revenue, will choose taxation rather than cut costs. Then they’ll blame the IMF. Someone can only dangle crumbs in your face when you don’t know how to cook.”

continue reading

[dailyworldecho]

[xtruss]

‘Lucrative’ Trap: Egypt Lured By Billion-Dollar IMF Deals! Cairo Is Seeking To Secure Large Foreign Loans In An Attempt To Combat Its Economic Crisis

A member of the pubic wears a mask on a Cairo streets on June 4, 2020 in Cairo, Egypt. © Fadel Dawod/Getty Images

The major economic and currency crisis that Egypt has been going through in recent years has forced the country’s authorities to take measures that may result in even greater losses.

Egypt’s recent agreements with world powers and global financial institutions show that Cairo aims to secure multibillion-dollar foreign loans. In order to obtain the loans, the government plans to reduce the foreign currency deficit and meet the conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund.

Resorts And Migrants

At the end of March 2024, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly announced that the IMF had approved Egypt’s loan program and expanded it to $8 billion. He also noted that in early May, Egypt would receive the second installment of funds, worth $20 billion, from the Ras Al-Hekma deal with the UAE, aimed towards the development of the Ras Al-Hekma resort on the Mediterranean Sea.

Cairo has already received the first $5 billion from the Ras Al-Hekma deal. Egypt wishes to conclude a similar agreement with Saudi investors in order to develop elite areas on the Red Sea coast near Sharm El Sheikh, including the Ras Ghamila resort. Madbouly said the government is in favor of increasing local and particularly foreign investments in Egypt, since this would help the country resolve the dollar crisis.

Egyptian Minister of Supply and Internal Trade distribute sugar, oil, rice and other food products as part of measures to prevent economic crisis in Faiyum, Egypt on November 3, 2016. © Stringer/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

The EU intends to provide Egypt with an assistance package worth €7.4 billion ($8 billion) to support the economy. International experts directly tie Egypt’s negotiations with the EU and the IMF to the war in Gaza and the problem of illegal migration.

In November 2023, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the organization was seriously considering expanding Egypt’s $3 billion loan program in light of economic difficulties related to the war in Gaza. The head of the Communications Department at the IMF, Julie Kozack, also stated that “comprehensive support” must be provided to Cairo so it can cope with the influx of refugees from Gaza. EU loans are largely related to immigration pressure caused by the armed conflicts in Palestine and Sudan.

Chicken Instead of Lamb

A major financial crisis broke out in Egypt in early 2023, forcing the government and the Central Bank to devalue the Egyptian pound. Since the start of the crisis, which continues to this day, the country has faced an increasing dollar deficit and debt burden as a result of growing external debt service payments and a lack of measures to strengthen foreign exchange reserves. The situation is complicated by a chronic shortage of food and medicine, the closure of enterprises, unemployment, and stagnating productivity.

Since the beginning of 2022, as a result of the government’s plan to devalue the national currency and switch to a floating exchange rate, the Egyptian pound has lost about two-thirds of its value. Currently, Egypt’s pound remains stable at about 49.5 per dollar, but this has not prevented prices for essential goods from rising.

Food shortages force ordinary Egyptians to stand in lines for hours just to get basic products like sugar, meat, and so on. Inflation has severely affected the majority of the population. Beef has become too expensive for the average Egyptian, and chicken is now considered a delicacy.

At the end of 2022, due to the rapidly rising prices, the Egyptian authorities advised people to replace meat – which has become too costly for the average buyer – with chicken feet. Egypt’s National Nutrition Institute listed the benefits of chicken feet, and noted that they contain protein, vitamins, and minerals necessary for the restoration of skin tissues, muscle growth, and so on. This ‘propaganda’ quickly spread online and sparked controversy in Egypt.

About six months later, on the eve of Eid al-Adha, or the Feast of Sacrifice, a professor of comparative law at Egypt’s Al-Azhar University, Saad al-Din al-Hilali, encouraged the country to “promote the culture of sacrificing birds” instead of the traditional young ram or bull, which most Egyptians could no longer afford. Since the Feast of Sacrifice is one of the main Muslim holidays, many Egyptians found such statements humiliating.

Egypt’s total external debt has doubled in the past ten years. At the end of the first quarter of 2023, it amounted to about $165.4 billion. This is equivalent to 40.3% of the country’s GDP, which is less than the 50% barrier set by the IMF. Dollar debt accounts for more than two-thirds of Egypt’s obligations to creditors. Based on official data, the total annual volume of Egypt’s external debt, including installments and interest, will amount to a record-high $42.3 billion next year.

Long Relations With The IMF

Egypt is currently the second largest debtor to the IMF after Argentina, but things have not always been like this. Egypt joined the IMF in December 1945, and its share in the fund is about $1.5 billion. In May 1962, Cairo signed the first agreement with the IMF to obtain a loan that would help it attain economic stability. However, the negotiations were paused, and the government did not resume them until the second half of the 1970s.

Egypt does not have a long history of obtaining foreign loans. The IMF provided the first loan to Egypt in 1977-78, during the presidency of Anwar Sadat. The $186 million loan was supposed to solve the problem with external payments and inflation, which approached 8.6%. The decision was motivated by various factors and problems which the Egyptian economy faced after the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Anwar El-Sadat © Bettmann/Contributor/Getty Images

In 1991-93, under then-President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt again borrowed about $375 million to cover the trade deficit. As a result of this agreement, 50% of Cairo’s debt to the Paris Club countries (an informal intergovernmental organization of major creditor countries) was canceled.

After 1993, Egypt did not receive any loans from the IMF for a long time, and the fund’s role was limited to consultations and technical assistance. From 2011 to 2013, Cairo requested a loan from the IMF three times. Finally, the $4.7 billion deal was almost approved, but then-President Mohamed Morsi refused to implement many of the announced reforms, and the negotiations were suspended.

In 2016, Egypt adopted a three-year economic reform program after receiving a $12 billion loan from the IMF. The financing was provided in six tranches over three years. Egypt received another $2.77 billion in 2020 as urgent assistance to overcome the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Since 2016, the Egyptian government has carried out several reforms – it transitioned to a floating exchange rate, adjusted public finances to reduce public debt, reformed energy subsidies and adjusted energy prices, reviewed social spending, and implemented measures to strengthen the business climate, attract investments, and increase employment opportunities.

Hosni Mubarak © Diana Walker/Getty Images

In 2021, Egypt received another loan, worth 5.4 billion, to help correct the balance of payments deficit. In 2022, Egypt reached an agreement with the IMF for an additional $3 billion to help with the foreign currency shortage crisis. This loan was supposed to be provided in nine tranches over four years, but so far, Cairo has received only the first tranche worth $347 million. The IMF says that it will provide the other installments after the necessary procedures and checks.

On March 6, 2024, the IMF agreed to expand this loan from $3 billion to $8 billion, provided that Egypt implements a set of economic reforms, such as transitioning to a floating exchange rate, reducing spending on infrastructure projects, and expanding the rights and opportunities of the private sector. Prior to this agreement, the Egyptian Central Bank decided to raise the interest rate by 600 basis points, to record levels.

Where Did The Foreign Currency Go?

In December 2023, several Arab media outlets posed the natural question: What happened to Egypt’s foreign exchange earnings which amounted to $100 billion per year? These earnings would be enough to cover Egypt’s financial obligations, such as import fees and external debt.

According to Al Arabiya, Egypt’s main sources of foreign exchange income are exports (about $45 billion per year), remittances ($32 billion), tourism ($11 billion), Suez Canal transit fees ($7.9 billion), and foreign direct investment ($8.9 billion).

However, sources in Egypt’s banking sector say that the country’s foreign exchange earnings do not reach banking structures due to the existence of a parallel market for foreign exchange where exchange rates significantly differ from official ones. Also, many Egyptians open accounts and businesses abroad and transfer foreign funds there. Workers sell dollars to brokers in parallel markets in order to better provide for their families in Egypt. On top of that, Egyptian importers prefer to keep their money in foreign banks.

The major trade deficit forces Egypt to take unpopular measures to fill the shortage of foreign currency. For example, Egyptians who live abroad and want to settle the issue with their conscription status should pay a minimum of $5,000. A special dollar retirement plan has also been developed for Egyptians who work abroad. Moreover, state-owned banks have started selling high-interest dollar savings certificates.

However, the most scandalous measure was the idea to give out residence permits or even citizenship in exchange for foreign currency. On March 8, 2023, the government allowed external investors to acquire Egyptian citizenship for a non-refundable sum of $250,000, or in exchange for buying Egyptian real estate worth at least $300,000.

Luxury By The United Arab Emirates

In February 2024, it was announced that the Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company PJSC (branded ADQ) intends to invest $35 billion in a large-scale real estate development project on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast. This step is directly related to the IMF loan, since it can provide the country with the foreign currency needed to obtain new financing from the IMF. According to the plan, ADQ will build a tourist and financial center in the Ras al-Hekma area, spanning 170km.

Visualization of Ras Al-Hekma Development Plans. © Egyptian Ministry of Housing

“The significant investment marks a pivotal step towards establishing Ras El-Hekma as a leading first-of-its-kind Mediterranean holiday destination, financial centre, and free zone equipped with world-class infrastructure to strengthen Egypt’s economic and tourism growth potential,” ADQ said in a press release.

The new and ambitious project, which looks more like the sale of territory to the UAE, sparked controversy, particularly among ordinary Egyptians. Over the past decade, the Egyptian government has spent huge amounts of money on luxury infrastructure projects, including on the New Administrative Capital, which has so far cost the country over $58 billion.

However, just a few days after the Ras al-Hekma project was announced, it turned out that Cairo and Riyadh have been holding informal negotiations on the development of the Ras Ghamila coastal zone near the Sharm el-Sheikh resort on the Red Sea coast. This initiative is also aimed towards increasing Egypt’s foreign exchange resources.

In February, Samir Sabri, an official representative of the Local and Foreign Investment Committee of the government’s National Dialogue initiative, said that “a massive project on the Red Sea, rivalling the scope of Ras El Hekma [is] imminent.”

Loans For Curbing Migration Flows

In mid-March 2024, Egypt and the EU announced that their relations have grown to the level of strategic partnership. This happened during the visit of an EU delegation headed by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to Cairo. The agreement concluded between the EU and Egypt included a €7.4 billion aid package to support the economy amid fears that the war in Gaza and the conflict in Sudan may worsen Egypt’s financial problems and thereby increase migration pressure on Europe.

Under the agreement, the EU guarantees Egypt loans up to €5 billion until 2027, investments worth €1.8 billion in various fields, as well as grants totaling €600 million. Moreover, the countries reached an agreement on combating terrorism and illegal migration. The EU will allocate €200 million to resolve the migration issue.

As Europe suffers from the continuous influx of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, it continues to dictate its conditions to North Africa’s Arab nations, forcing them to curb migration flows in return for large loans. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, about half a million refugees currently reside in Egypt. Therefore, Europe’s concern about migration from Egypt is one of the reasons for signing the agreement.

History Repeats Itself

Apparently, Egypt has forgotten the mistakes of the colonial era. In the 19th century, the situation that eventually led to the country’s enslavement unfolded in a similar way.

Cairo received the first loans from European banks in 1833, during the reign of Egyptian ruler Muhammad Ali, but by 1840, Egypt already had accumulated a debt of 80 million francs. At around the same time, thousands of foreigners settled in Egypt. By 1863, its external debt had grown to 367 million francs – mainly due to the huge costs of building the Suez Canal, but also because of other prestigious projects, including the luxurious palaces of the Egyptian rulers. Dishonest speculation by European intermediaries, loan sharks, bankers, and so on also contributed to the growing debt.

In 1876, Egypt officially declared itself insolvent and creditor countries established control over it. This gave rise to many patriotic movements that proclaimed ‘Egypt is for Egyptians’. However, Ismail Pasha of Egypt, who resisted the European powers, was soon replaced by Tawfik Pasha (1879-92), who strictly followed the orders of Great Britain. The patriotic movement of officers led by Colonel Ahmed Ourabi was defeated in the course of the Anglo-Egyptian War of 1882, which marked the beginning of Britain’s occupation of Egypt.

Despite the fact that following WWI, Egypt formally became a free nation, it was still ruled by pro-English kings, and the Suez Canal remained under Franco-British (and later British) control. England controlled navigation in the Suez Canal until 1956, when President Gamal Abdel Nasser announced the nationalization of the canal. This led to the outbreak of an armed conflict and the invasion of British, French, and Israeli troops into Egypt and the start of the week-long Suez Crisis. The Soviet Union’s intervention saved Egypt from a full-scale war – Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev threatened to launch thermonuclear strikes on the territories of the invading countries.

Gamal Abdel Nasser © Bettmann/Contributor/Getty Images

Today, Egypt’s debt is growing by the day, and it is again at risk of getting into unequal economic and military-political relations with the creditor countries – a situation that poses a serious threat to its sovereignty.

— By Tamara Ryzhenkova, Orientalist, Senior Lecturer at the Department of History of the Middle East, St. Petersburg State University, expert for the Telegram channel ‘Arab Africa’

[niveditaabaidya]

IMF Begins Working On Loan Review For Ukraine. #imf #nato #un #news #usa...

[komezco]

The Dark World of Economic Hitmen: How Corporations and Governments Influence Foreign Economies

Economic hitmen are a shadowy group of professionals who operate in the shadows of the global economy. These individuals are hired by corporations and governments to influence economic decisions in foreign countries, often at the expense of local populations. The term “economic hitman” was popularized by John Perkins, a former economic hitman who wrote about his experiences in his book…

[notayesmanseconomics]

UK money and credit data suggest it will be 0.25% from the Bank of England this week

Today brings the UK into focus and we can start with something rather extraordinary. The recent position for the UK has improved as forecasts of recession for the end of 2022 foundered somewhat on the relatively strong GDP report for November. It is still possible but according to our official statisticians December would have to be worse than -0.5% for GDP. Also as we have been noting the energy…