#ig fx dma

[qocsuing]

Saxo Markets Review: A professional brokerage for professional traders

Saxo Markets Review: A professional brokerage for professional traders

Saxo Markets is one of the largest CFD brokers worldwide and provides direct market access to equities, bonds, forex, futures and options as well as being a major liquidity and infrastructure provider to wealth managers, banks and smaller brokers.To get more news about saxo review, you can visit wikifx.com official website.

Saxo Markets Expert Review The thing about trading is that it is completely misunderstood. People still think they can beat the market with little or no knowledge about how global macroeconomics or a company’s balance sheet works. Trading is no different to any other skill, hobby or career, it requires experience.

It’s true, trading is hard, you have to know what you are doing, study, learn, and develop. It’s not for everyone. People think it’s easy, it’s not, it’s very high risk.

If you are going to trade you have to understand it. What it is, why you’re doing it and what the risks are.

My point here is that there are many different trading platforms and brokers to choose from, and all cater to slightly different audiences. Some cater to absolute beginners, some are more focussed on FX, others on stocks, some on automated trading strategies, and some for people that just want to tap away during the day scalping the markets.

But Saxo Markets, in my view anyway, has always catered to the more experienced traders, ones who may have already spent five years cutting their teeth as a risk warning statistic.

Over the years I’ve traded with Saxo Markets, been a competitor as a broker at Man Financial, and been an institutional customer when I had a white label of their trading platform when I was at Investors Intelligence. I’ve also interviewed two of their UK CEOs and been to their offices a few times, so I know a fair bit about them.

Saxo were in fact one of the earliest brokers to offer multi-asset trading from a single platform with direct market access, which puts them at the most sophisticated end of the spectrum.

For more experienced traders Saxo Markets offers CFD trading with direct market access. This means that instead of trading at prices set by the broker (usually slightly widened from the underlying bid/offer) you trade at the price you see on the exchange. By trading DMA CFDs your orders are placed directly on the order book letting you work limits inside the best bid/offer, meaning if you don’t want to deal at the market you’ll get better pricing than anywhere else if filled. Because you are trading DMA, your commission is charged afterwards and not included in the spread. This type of trading is particularly suited to larger and more professional traders, which is Saxo Markets ideal customer.

They are also one of the few trading platforms in the UK that offer retail traders (private clients) access to futures and options. Again an indication that Saxo goes after and caters to more experienced customers, because trading futures is for higher value accounts. FTSE futures for example are traded on ICE, and 1 lot is valued at £10 per index point. So, if for example the FTSE is trading at 7723 (as they are today) the smallest trade you can put on gives you £77,230 of exposure to the 100 biggest companies in on the LSE. Which is an initial margin of £4,890. Other brokers like IG who (as well as looking after larger customers and funds) cater to smaller more inexperienced traders we let you trade the FTSE at 50p a point (£3,861.50 exposure).

Saxo are also quite risk averse for a margin trading business, as they do not offer excessive margins. Compared to Interactive Brokers (probably their closest competitor for product range and accounts types in the UK) their margin rates are quite high, for CFDs as they don’t want their customer blowing up. Instead they’ve told me on many occasions, they are more interested in building long-term mutually beneficial and profitable relationships with their customers.

As far as the trading platform is concerned, it’s excellent, well laid out, markets are easy to find and you get the choice with each asset if you want to trade is as a future or CFD if it’s an index, commodity or currency pair. If you’re trading stocks you can either deal as a CFD or a physical equity for longer-term investing.

You can drag and drop instruments from watchlist to the charting screen, then bring up options boards, and product overviews which give you all the pertinent details and market depth with level-2 pricing. Some markets though (like FTSE futures) you need a subscription to see live exchange data.

In the research tab you get access to trading signals from autochartist, which is probably worth taking with a pinch of salt because most platforms have this. But, there are really well integrated into the platform where you can deal straight from the signal and add pre-determined stops and limits.

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Are GFPCr Platforms Mac-compatible?

Are GFPCr Platforms Mac-compatible? Read More http://fxasker.com/question/28276b1f8c0b3374/ FXAsker

[bestforexbrokersinjapan-blog]

Best Forex Brokers in Japan

There are several forex brokers in Japan. For the brokers to operate in Japan, they must have an office in Japan and be registered by the Japanese Financial Services Agency (JFSA). Some of the best brokers in Japan are as follows:

Saxo

Saxo Capital Markets is a brokerage company headquartered in the United Kingdom. Direct Market Access (DMA) is offered by Saxo to stock, futures, and options and has an online trading platform. The minimum deposit required by Saxo is £500 and the client can either be enrolled to the SaxoTraderGo or SaxoTraderPRO platforms. The client can deposit and withdraw funds through debit or credit cards, bank transfer or stock transfer. The best thing about the Saxo trader platform is that it can be accessed on both mobile phones and personal computers.

IG

IG was founded in 1974 by Stuart Wheeler as IG Index. IG is a brokerage company headquartered in London. IG offers several account types including spread betting, CFDs, Forex and Prime Brokerage. The broker accepts a minimum deposit of £250 and the funds can be transferred through MasterCard, Maestro, bank transfer or PayPal. IG offers a wide range of sentiment tools for clients, especially in the Index and FX market after the purchase of DailyFX.com, which incorporates a lot of educational material and tools for clients.

IG limited-risk account protects clients from taking too much risk by making sure that the positions opened for a client do not lose more than the initial deposit needed to open the trade. There is a guaranteed stop for all positions opened through limited risk accounts. This gives an absolute limit on any potential loss and gives watertight protection against slippage.

CMC Markets

This is one of the best companies that offer spread betting to clients. There is no minimum deposit required to trade with CMC Markets. CMC offers several different types of accounts to clients, including Forex, CFDs, Spread Betting and Prime Brokerage. Funds can be transferred through credit or debit card, PayPal or bank transfer. More advantages of CMC are that it is a public listed company, meaning that one can keep an eye on the share index of the company. The company has a great mobile app, meaning that one can easily access the CMC trading platform easily on their mobile phones.

XTB

XTB is an international trading services provider. Traders in Japan can get access to XTB’s services through the international company, XTB International Limited, which is registered in Belize with the International Financial Services Commission (IFSC). Clients can sign up to one of two different accounts, a Standard Account or a Pro Account. The former offer floating spreads to clients, while market spreads are offered to Pro clients. XTB’s international website is available in English. Traders in Japan can transfer funds to their accounts through debit or credit cards, bank transfers, or eWallets such as Skrill and Neteller.

More Japanese forex brokers: http://www.cnie.org/japan/

Conclusion

Several brokers are available for one to trade with. A trader needs to look at the broker's website to know what the minimum deposit required is and what other services the broker offers.

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USDCHF: To Parity and Beyond

Entry: At market (1.0057 at the time of writing)

Stop: 0.9550 (200-DMA)

Target 1: 1.0108 (April 10 high)

Target 2: 1.0170 (March 7 high)

– See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Would you like to know more about trading the financial markets?DailyFX’s trading guideshould be your first stop.

Safe havens are suffering in the wake of Emmanuel Macron’s Presidential victory in France, which has becalmed Europe.

Volatility is tumbling, with the VIX closing yesterday at its lowest level since 1993 as investors seek returns in riskier assets.

This spells bad news for safe havens such as the Swiss Franc, which has dropped against its rivals, and good news for the Dollar, which is polishing its ‘King Dollar’ crown once again. As such, one of the most forceful FX moves is in USD/CHF, which has made gains for a fourth day straight.

USD/CHF has broken trend-line resistance in the 1.00400 area, so continued gains are on the cards. The next major hurdle is resistance in the 1.0145-50 area, which if breached opens up the next move to as high as 1.030.

Chart 1: USD/CHF Daily Chart (December 2016 to May 2017)

Chart by IG

— Written by Oliver Morrison, Analyst

To contact Oliver, email him at oliver.morrison@ig.com

Follow Oliver on Twitter @OPWMorrison

If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides; they’re free and updated for the second quarter of 2017

If you’re looking for ideas more short-term in nature, please check out our IG Client Sentiment Data

Would you like to know more about financial market trading, or to get live coverage of major economic events? TheDailyFX webinarsare for you

USDCHF: To Parity and Beyond USDCHF: To Parity and Beyond https://rss.dailyfx.com/feeds/all $inline_image

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Top Forex Brokers in Australia

The Australian retail trading landscape couldn’t be more diverse, which makes finding the top forex broker in Australia a hard endeavor. Thankfully, Australia is blessed with a wide range of brokers and a mature industry that caters to a growing base of investors.To get more news about australian forex brokers, you can visit wikifx.com official website.

Australia itself is well known for brokers and retail investing, which is itself a major financial center in the world, spotlighted by the Australian Securities Exchange Ltd (ASX).

We tracked the overall playing field to find the best forex broker in Australia for retail investors. The following synopsis details the top performing Australian forex brokers, highlighted by their respective strengths. Saxo Markets Australia has an amazing trading platform and a robust educational client portal. The highly trusted, multi-asset broker features over 65,000 tradable instruments and packs some of the best premium features and tools that can take your trading to the next level. All trading accounts are equipped with margin close-out protection, negative balance protection and 24hr expert customer service. These are some of Saxo Markets Australia's features which further attest to their commitment to creating a safe trading environment. Saxo Capital Markets holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL 280372) and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

The minimum initial deposit at Saxo's is AUD 1000 and by opening an account you can immediately take part in Saxo Bank's loyalty program and earn rewards.

Trading any forex market flexibly is possible as Saxo's features give access to spot FX, crypto, FX option, and FX swaps. In what concerns leverage, Australian traders can expect to be met with a 50:1 leverage on majors and minor pairs, 40:1 on stock indices, 10:1 on single stocks, and 25:1 on commodities. Spreads are among the most competitive in the industry and start at 0.6 pips on major pairs.

At Saxo, traders can benefit from tier-1 liquidity and price improvement technology. This means they will be able to minimize spreads, achieve near-zero asymmetric slippage, and get the best possible price execution.

Another feature that really shines is that, in stark contrast to other brokers, Saxo has reduced premature stop outs. This means that stop orders are triggered at the opposite end of their respective spreads as a way of preventing traders from getting stopped out prematurely.

With a seamless trading experience, full transparency, an award-winning trading platform, and best-in-class execution, Saxo Bank is certainly a top contender for the best forex broker in Australia. IG is a widely known name across the forex market. This brokerage offers exceptional trading tools, unparalleled educational resources, and incredibly designed proprietary trading platforms.

Australian traders who sign up with IG can expect to be met with a wide variety of trading products and two different account types:

CFD account: in which traders are required to pay a commission on whichever share CFD transactions they make while other assets are kept traded commission-free. Spreads are variable, starting at 0.6 pips and IG can occasionally act as a market maker on trades. DMA account (also known as a level 2 trading account): with tighter spreads starting at 0.1 pips but also a commission which is based on the size of the trade. DMA accounts are only available via iOS IG trading platforms and the L2 dealer. It is the preferred account type of pro traders given that it offers what can possibly be one the best execution environments (trading straight through the exchange order books). Both trading account types require a $450 minimum deposit and can be funded via Mastercard, Visa, Paypal, or bank transfer.

Australian retail traders can leverage their positions 30:1 on major pairs and 20:1 on minor pairs, whereas professional forex traders can reach 100:1 and 250:1 leverage, respectively.

IG features 100 forex pairs, over 80 indices, over 13000 stocks, 12 cryptocurrencies, over 2000 ETFs, over 13000 options, and many commodities at the ready.

In terms of customer support, IG can be reached 24hrs a day, 6 days a week. IG is also fully regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) and is a holder of an Australian Financial Services (AFS) License.

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EUR Could Remain Strong After Draghi Notes Downside Risks Diminishing

Will EUR ride strong into May? See our forecastto find out!

Talking Points:

EUR traders take profit after ECB, still trading above weekend gap support

GBP/USD trades near 7-month high on break > 1.2905, remains bullish

Riksbank takes SEK lower on extended purchases

JoinTylerin hisDaily Closing Bell webinars at 3 pm ETto discuss market developments.

A question that has not been asked in years is beginning to resurface. Could EUR become the new darling of G10 FX? Sure, the European economy and collective union government have its issues, but it’s fair to ask whether or not the intrinsic value is beginning to diverge for the common currency relative to market price in a positive fashion. In other words, there could be a lot of upside in EUR if the downside risks that once concerned currency traders the world over are diminishing faster than expected.

On Thursday, Mario Draghi was the most impactful central banker, as the ECB acknowledged improvement while remaining cautious. Of course, most central banks are taking that path. However, the ECB statement on Thursday provided little to encouraging the EUR bears who have been on the wrong side of some sharp moves recently.

Sterling remains in the driver seat in G8 FX. On Thursday, GBP/USD is trading near September highs as 1.29 was taken out again. Traders should keep an eye on the possible drift higher toward the top of the range near 1.3445/81. The bottom of the range is the zone that encompasses 1.2866 to 1.2775. A close above 1.2905 on a weekly basis could help signify the GBP rebound could extend.

Lastly, two key developments from today worth watching market follow-through are the Riksbank & Oil. On Thursday, Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank said they would continue bond purchases into the second half of the year, which caused government bonds to rally and the Krona to drop. Given the support in USD/SEK near 8.75, it’s worth watching to see if SEK weakness continues. Also, Oil continues to trade near critical support of the 200-DMA as sentiment shows that Bulls are loading into the long trade. A breakdown could act as a catalyst for a strong move lower that would cause Oil to align with the broader drop in commodities.

Interested in seeing what IG client’s positioning means for the GBP?Find out here!

Closing Bell’s Top Chart: April 27, 2017, Crude tests 200-DMA as momentum pushes down

Tomorrow’s Main Event: American GDP & Eurozone CPI

Many perceived that Friday’s focus would be on another shutdown of the US government due to spending disagreements. However, at the 11th hour, it seems the US Senate will pass a short-term funding bill to avoid a shutdown. Now, Friday’s focus will fall on Canadian & US GDP, which is a tier-1 release, but most of the ingredients that go into the number are comprised of already known data like durable goods. The European CPI could go a long way in improving EUR sentiment after Draghi noted that risks to the downside are diminishing on Thursday.

IG Trader Sentiment Highlight:Crude Bulls try to support a falling market

Oil – US Crude: As of April 27, retail trader data shows 75.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.05 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 19 when Oil – US Crude traded near 5073.6; price has moved 4.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 14.2% higher than yesterday and 59.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.0% lower than yesterday and 31.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil – US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil – US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias.(Emphasis Mine)

—

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

EUR Could Remain Strong After Draghi Notes Downside Risks Diminishing EUR Could Remain Strong After Draghi Notes Downside Risks Diminishing https://rss.dailyfx.com/feeds/forex_market_news $inline_image

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USD/CAD Trades At 1-Month Highs On Commodity Downturn, CAD CPI Ahead

Will Oil Or NAFTA Renegotiations Drive CAD in 2Q? See our forecast to find out what’s driving market trends!

Talking Points:

USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Favoring CAD Strength Continuing

Crude Oil helping to guide USD/CAD higher

CPI on Friday could turn the tide for CAD if BoC needs to shift from their dovish stance

The Canadian Dollar Bulls have why the 200-DMA (blue line at 1.3225) garners so much respect. Since testing the 200-DMA on April 13, USD/CAD has moved higher by over 2% thanks in part to the pull-back in Crude Oil.

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The price test worth watching as USD/CAD trades in a choppy fashion in the rising channel is the March 09 high of 1.3535. A break above 1.3535 could open up the argument that we’re soon to trade toward the highest levels since 14-months. However, before we get excited about a possible breakout in USD/CAD, remember that Friday holds the Canadian CPI data.

A strong CPI print has the ability to shift the BoC from their dovish tone if there is a print above 2%. Outside of the data, sentiment and relative strength tend to favor anticipation of a breakout higher. Looking at IG Client Sentiment, we see a sharp rise in USD/CAD short positioning as the CAD continues to sit as the second weakest currency in the G8 with AUD the weakest.

We use the Sentiment Reading as a contrarian indicator favoring further upside. The backdrop that would be needed to favor another test of the 200-DMA at 1.3225 would be a surprising CPI and a move higher in Crude Oil above the April high of $53.74/bb.

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

USD/CAD Sentiment:

USDCAD: As of April 20, retail trader data shows 38.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.57 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Apr 03 when USDCAD traded near 1.33841. The number of traders net-long is 9.1% lower than yesterday and 25.2% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 43.0% higher than yesterday and 16.2% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bullish contrarian trading bias.(Emphasis Mine)

What do retail traders’ buy/sell decisions hint about the CAD trend? Find out here!

—

Shorter-Term USD/CAD Technical Levels: Thursday, April 20, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

USD/CAD Trades At 1-Month Highs On Commodity Downturn, CAD CPI Ahead USD/CAD Trades At 1-Month Highs On Commodity Downturn, CAD CPI Ahead https://rss.dailyfx.com/feeds/technical_analysis $inline_image

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Sterling Runs Higher As PM May Shocks Markets With Post-Brexit Vote

What will drive the Sterling through mid-year?See our forecastto find out!

Talking Points:

Sterling Runs Higher With 2% Intraday Range On Post-Brexit Vote Announcement

Late-Monday USD-Bounce on Mnuchin Fades Early Tuesday

Reflation Trade Continues To Deflate

Do you hear the institutional sellers running? There has been an exodus of sorts as institutions are unwinding their a few key trades set at the beginning of the year like Deutsche Bank’s bearish sterling Trade, which they’ve held on to for nearly two years. The sterling rose aggressively on Tuesday above the 200-DMA for the first time since June before the EU referendum shocked markets with a vote leave.

The announcement from PM May on the UK Snap Election to ensure as much as possible a united front regarding EU negotiations has taken the spotlight (at least for today) away from Sunday’s first round of French Elections. The break in attention has also given the EUR a lift as it trades well against the USD, JPY, & CAD. In addition to the European Currency outperformance, we see continued softness in commodity FX, which is leading to a drop in yields.

Yesterday, we honed in on the fall in 10-Yr yields, and today’s bid in Treasuries took the yield to 50% of the November-December range, which continues to show pressure on the reflation theme.

The chart shows GBP/USD breaking above the 200-DMA, but a chart worth also watching is the GBP/AUD. Overnight, the Australian Dollar declined after the RBA focused on a weaker labor market and the positive correlation of slumping Iron Ore also appears to be dragging on the Aussie. The Cable chart below has a vertical line overlaid for the first time RSI(5) broke into overbought territory, which can signal a Bullish a breakout. Given the trifecta of Bullish technical factors (price > Ichimoku Cloud & 200-DMA, Recent RSI(5) Bullish Breakout), we’ll keep an eye for a move to 1.3094, which is the 38.2% retracement of the 2016 range in Cable.

Interested In Seeing How retail traders’ Are Exposed In Key Markets?Find out here!

Closing Bell’s Top Chart: April 18, 2017: GBP/USD Trades Above 200-DMA First Time Since June

Tomorrow’s Main Event:

Wednesday US afternoon will bring New Zealand CPI data (Thursday morning in Wellington, New Zealand), which will take place in the US afternoon trade and leads the impact front for a currency. Other worthwhile news events is the Fed Beige Book. As of this writing, there have been few sparks from the Aso-Pence Bilateral Trade discussion that we mentioned yesterday could shift focus toward BoJ monetary policy and add additional support to the JPY.

IG Trader Sentiment Highlight:Crude Oil Sentiment:

Oil – US Crude: Retail trader data shows 39.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.51 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 10 when Oil – US Crude traded near 5266.2; theprice has moved 1.0% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 7.3% lower than yesterday and 20.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.6% lower than yesterday and 1.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Oil – US Crude prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil – US Crude-bullish contrarian trading bias. (Emphasis Mine)

— Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

To receive Tyler’s Closing Bell articles directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

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GBP Finds Some Support in Latest ICM Poll

Talking Points

– Latest ICM poll shows the Conservative Party with a 12 point lead, down from 14 points last week.

– Some UK polls show UK ruling party with a lead of between 6-8 points.

– See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

GBP/USD gained in excess of half-a-cent Tuesday after the latest UK voting intention poll giving the Conservative party a 12 point lead over Labour, albeit down from 14 points last week.

The poll by ICM for The Guardian showed the Tory party at 45%, down 2%, while Labour remained unchanged at 33%. A YouGov poll last weekend showed the difference between the two major parties narrow to 5 points, before widening again to 7 points, while the latest Survation poll put the difference between the two parties at 6 points.

According to ICM the shift in polling numbers is being attributed to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s populist policies, including the abolition of student tuition fees (normally GBP 9,000 a year) and the return to state funded grants, resonating with younger voters.

GBP/USD picked up Tuesday, after a long bank holiday weekend, to trade just under 1.2900 from Friday’s low of 1.2775. The British Pound has also bounced off the 50-dma and is within half-a-cent of breaking back above the 20-dma, another potentially bullish trigger.

Chart: GBP/USD Daily Timeframe (February 2 – May 30, 2017)

Chart by IG

And the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, show retail investors remain short GBPUSD.

Retail trader data shows 42.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.37 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 12 when GBPUSD traded near 1.24853; price has moved 3.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.6% lower than yesterday and 10.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.8% higher than yesterday and 4.0% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBPUSD trading bias.

— Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Don’t trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides

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Oil: Might be Tough to Revisit the Recent Highs

Fundamental Forecast for Oil: Neutral with a Bearish Bias

A classic example of ‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact’.

Oil may struggle to get back into its upward channel.

Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Oil slumped nearly 5% Thursday after OPEC announced that it would extend production cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day for another nine months, ending in June 2018. And while this would normally be taken as a bullish cue for the market, this extension had been mooted around the market since early May, taking the price of oil from a low of $46.72/barrel to a pre-release high of $54.87, a 17%+ rally in just over three weeks. With such a price rise already baked-in to market assumptions, it is no surprise to see the market falling back. And with US shale production hitting just under 10 million barrels a day, according to the latest US EIA data, upside movement in the oil complex may be capped.

And the technical set-up looks slightly worrying as well. As the daily chart below shows, Brent has broken out of its sharp up channel that started on May 5, while the current price is also now below the 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages, a potentially bearish set-up. To return to the up channel, Brent would need to move back above the 100-dma, currently around $53.70, while continued weakness could see the March 22 low of $49.92 the first target.

Chart: Oil Daily Timeframe (December 5, 2016 – May 26, 2017)

Chart by IG

— Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst.

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides; they’re free and updated for the second quarter of 2017

If you’re looking for ideas more short-term in nature, check out the IG Client Sentiment Data

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French Elections & Softer US Data Favoring Further JPY Strength

Will Yields Continue To Drive JPY in 2Q? See our forecast to find out what’s driving the biggest market trends!

Talking Points:

USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Short, break < 200-DMA favors further downside

JPY strongest G10 currency trading at 2017 highs, EUR currently weakest

Previous Post: JPY Stands Strong As USD Weakness Persists

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USD/JPY is working on its first close below the 200-DMA since the US Election outcome was announced on November 9. JPY remains the strongest currency in G10 with EUR the current weakest followed by USD, due to the few other currencies having a persistent supportive environment for currency strength. On Friday, the market got news of a soft Consumer Price Index that underperformed on both core and headline measures alongside Retail Sales.

In addition to Friday’s soft US data, we have Sunday’s first-round of the French election adding to a favorable environment for USD/JPY shorts. If the polls continue to show momentum for Mélenchon and Le Pen, we could continue to see the JPY strengthen as the options market continues to show traders buying puts on JPY crosses as protection. Such action in the options market also favors spot-exposed traders exiting their trades until the waters become less choppy. However, depending on who battles in the anticipated run-off for French President on May 7, we could continue to finish the month of April and the open of May.

Many traders are rightfully focused on the possible run-off between the surprising rise of Mélenchon to challenge La Pen and the outstanding favorite, Macron. A Macron win would likely be least favorable for JPY longs and most favorable for USD/JPY longs given that the market sees Macron as the least likely to stir concern about France abandoning the Euro.

Looking at the chart, a trader would be well served to keep an eye on IG trader sentiment (discussed below) and the 200-DMA as possible new resistance. If the price remains below the 200-DMA and the IG Trader Sentiment holds a bearish signal, we could be on our away to approaching 106.84, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the August-December price range and the close of Nov.10.

Should price reverse higher, and we see the 200-DMA hold as support, which is not anticipated in the current macro background, the appropriate price level to focus on for USD/JPY is the March 27 low of 110.10 followed by the April 4/ 11 high of 110.92. The absence of a close above 110.92 alongside the sentiment picture explained below remaining in its current state since January 9 will keep the bias bearish.

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Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

USD/JPY IG Trader Sentiment

What do retail traders’ buy/sell decisions hint about the JPY trend? Find out here!

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 71.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.56 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jan 09 when USDJPY traded near 117.304; price has moved 7.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.6% higher than yesterday and 11.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.2% higher than yesterday and 4.1% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias. (Emphasis Mine)

Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: Monday, April 17, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

French Elections & Softer US Data Favoring Further JPY Strength French Elections & Softer US Data Favoring Further JPY Strength https://rss.dailyfx.com/feeds/technical_analysis $inline_image

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Baker Hughes Rig Count & Tanker Prices Point To More Oil Oversupply

Fundamental Forecast for USOIL: Neutral

Saudi Arabia supports Oil market from further declines on signs of supply cut extension

Technical Post: Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bearish Evidence Is Gathering Steam

BHI US Oil Rig Count jumps 21 Rigs to 652, over double from 2016 low of 316

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar to find what live coverage for key event risk influencing FX and Energy markets is scheduled for the coming days.

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Here is one way to get a sense of the oversupply in the market due to US Oversupply. Look to see how much Gulf Tanker rates are rising. Gulf Tanker rates can show you how much money is being requested from Tanker’s in the Gulf Coast to store Oil, which is presumably being used as storage space on lands reaches capacity.

Tanker Rates (Blue) Rising As Oil Oversupply Threatens Oil Price (Orange)

Data Source: Bloomberg, Chart Created from Excel by Quasar Elizundia of DailyFX Research

The chart above aligns with a familiar story, which is the oversupply in the US from shale producers are threatening the price recovery in Oil. The chart shows the price of Tanker rates rising sharply as Oil price topped out and began its ~12% decline. In May, OPEC is expected to make a decision as to whether or not the cuts will be extended. It will be important to watch how they will act given that the US Shale Producers have a hand in unbalancing the market that OPEC is actively trying to fix.

On Friday, we got word from Baker Hughes International that the U.S. Oil Rig Count Report had risen 21 rigs to 652 active rigs. This number is over double the number of active rigs from last summer at around 330. As you would expect, the majority of rigs being reinitiated are in the cheaper to produce shale regions.

Technical View: The price action of Crude Oil is continuing to trade below the all-important 200-DMA at $48.62. Over the last year, recent price tests of the 200-DMA have been met with large buying volume that subsequently lifted prices to multi-month highs over the following months.

If the price falls further from here, the chart support to watch below the 200-DMA is likely the $44/40.5 zone, which is the 38.2-50% retracement of the February 2016 to January price range of $55.13-$26/bbl.

Next Week’s Data Points That May Affect Energy Markets:

The focal points for the energy market next week will remain Wednesday’s EIA Petroleum Supply Report at 10:30 AM ET and Friday’s Baker-Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 PM ET followed by the 3:30 PM ET release of the CFTC Commitment of Traders report. This weekend, Kuwait will host OPEC leaders to discuss the progress of the production cuts on balancing the markets. One optimistic view from Energy Aspects, Chief Oil Analyst Amrita Sen is that “OPEC pushed an extra 1.5 million barrels a day of exports and production really late into last year, that’s the effect we’re seeing now. You’re going to start seeing the effects of the cuts pretty much from next week onwards.”

Oil Sentiment Picture From IG Traders

Oil – US Crude: Retail trader data shows 70.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.33 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Mar 01 when Oil – US Crude traded near 5424.1; price has moved 11.8% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.8% lower than yesterday and 0.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.0% higher than yesterday and 8.2% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil – US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Oil – US Crude price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long. (Emphasis Mine)

Baker Hughes Rig Count & Tanker Prices Point To More Oil Oversupply Baker Hughes Rig Count & Tanker Prices Point To More Oil Oversupply https://rss.dailyfx.com/feeds/forex_market_news $inline_image

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Positioning Shift And Sentiment May Pressure Oil As Supply Swells

Fundamental Forecast for USOIL: Neutral

Saudi Arabia supports Oil market from further declines on signs of supply cut extension

Technical Post: Crude Oil Price Forecast: Keep It Simple, Watch This Moving Average

BHI US Oil Rig Count jumps 14 Rigs to 631, nearly doubling from 2016 low of 316

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar to find what live coverage for key event risk influencing FX and Energy markets is scheduled for the coming days.

Looking For Trade Ideas? Unlock Our Trading Guides Here!

The Oil market appears to be wholly focused right now on whether or not the OPEC accord to reduce supply so that price stockpiles come in line with the 5-year average will be extended past June. News of a possible extension supported by comments from Saudi energy minister, Khalid Al-Falih in a Bloomberg interview, helped to prevent a continuation of a price decline last week. Specifically, Al-Falih said, “We want to signal to them that we’re going to do what it takes to bring the industry back to a healthy situation.” (emphasis mine).

The high compliance from members of the OPEC-accord have been impressive, but we’ve consistently seen high growth in US stockpiles, which appear to be damaging OPEC’s efforts to pull the Oil market fundamentals in the right direction. Of course, OPEC is continuing to watch North American shale production, which is rather cheap and becoming cheaper with technology improvements. Al-Falih noted the increase in Shale production, “Certainly, I have made clear that the excessive production that I saw coming out of shale three, four years ago cannot be absorbed by the global market.”

The recent drop in price could be due to hedge funds getting out of the market reducing their extreme long positions relative to institutional hedges. Given the large buying volume possibly exiting the market, it’s fair to ask what would cause them to re-enter the market? Many are counting on hopes of rising demand and an OPEC-cut extension, but it may require a larger shift in the supply-demand imbalance despite OPEC’s recent efforts as the average US Crude Stockpiles have gained steadily due to Shale production. Hedge funds are likely to require much lower prices before accumulation begins again or a shock higher in Bullish Momentum, which has currently vanished.

Technical View: The price action of Crude Oil is likely keeping both sides of the market up at night as we currently sit near the all-important 200-DMA at $48.65. Over the last year, recent price tests of the 200-DMA have been met with large buying volume that lifted prices to multi-month highs over the following months. If the price falls further from here, the chart support to watch below the 200-DMA is likely the $44/40.5 zone, which is the 38.2-50% retracement of the February 2016 to January price range of $55.13-$26/bbl.

Next Week’s Data Points That May Affect Energy Markets:

The focal points for the energy market next week will remain Wednesday’s EIA Petroleum Supply Report at 10:30 AM ET and Friday’s Baker-Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 PM ET. In Berlin, next week will have U.A.E. Oil Minister, Suhail Al Mazrouei speak at the Berlin Energy Conference, which can be looked to for further hints of whether or not a supply cut extension will be pursued by members of OPEC and non-OPEC producers involved in the 2016 accord.

Sentiment Picture From IG Traders

Oil – US Crude: Retail trader data shows 72.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.6 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Mar 01 when Oil – US Crude traded near 5371.6; the price has moved 8.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.9% higher than yesterday and 3.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.0% lower than yesterday and 14.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil – US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil – US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Positioning Shift And Sentiment May Pressure Oil As Supply Swells Positioning Shift And Sentiment May Pressure Oil As Supply Swells https://rss.dailyfx.com/feeds/all $inline_image