#i'm not so much ambivalent about sports as i am about sports stats

[morayofsunshine]

what i'm figuring out is, i'm not against sports, i like some sports. i even like watching and talking about some sports. it's just the fan culture i see myself constantly surrounded by where so much of the discussion is where x team is in y league and how many wins or goals or hits z person has, when i'd care way more about a specific cool athletic feat somebody accomplished or zany event that happened. but that's not what i hear about as much in sports circles.

[tapejob]

man i know vaccinated people can still get covid but it’s supposed to be super rare. the number of pens getting put on covid protocol is making me more and more skeptical that the league is anywhere near the vaccination level it claims

Hmm, interesting take! The surge of pens players getting hit with covid protocol right now is... definitely not great. Hope you don't mind if I word vomit some thoughts on a few points I'm thinking abt:

1. The league hardly benefits from lying about their vaccination levels, and according to the league 99-98% should be vaccinated, with less than 5 unvaccinated players as of October 13.

Yeah, there's no vaccine mandate and we honestly don't know what goes on in the league for real, but from the looks of things I honestly don't think there's cause for skepticism on the league's part: for all they know all of their statistics are correct.

If they wanted to lie and fit in with the rest of the big leagues, it's interesting to me that they would choose such a large stat (NFL: 94.1%, NBA: ~95%, MLB aiming for 85%). Places like the Premier League, which truly are struggling with vaccination, have been pretty vague about it.

It makes me doubt that the NHL or any of the teams would actually lie about their vaccination levels, since honestly if word got out that that fancy 99% (exceptional in the sports world) was fake, there would be way more fallout compared to just being vague with PR in general to hide a sketchy vaccination rate.

2. Is it possible that players fake their vaccination status so the league reports fake data by accident?

Obviously, this has happened already with Evander Kane. Man is sketchy as hell but it's fair that you can't rule out the idea that there could be more bad apples in there trying to fake a vaccination.

The league did take this pretty seriously, and may be trying to crack down on possible fake vaccinations from now on, but for now who knows?

I don't know either. Tbh there's definitely incentive for anti-vax players to fake a vaccination, considering the league's restrictions in player contact/mask regulations/player benefits/pay that come with unvaccinated players.

Honestly, these incentives are really good: for the majority who are ambivalent-to-positive about it, it's a final benefit for going on board, and it's easier to get a shot than a fake card.

The NHL's also been good about educating players and keeping informed with medical professionals, which definitely can't hurt. Anyways, we'll never really know.

3. Breakthrough infections are possible. You did mention that it's supposed to be super rare, but I guess that's also a point of contention right now too?

Sidenote: breakthrough cases exist but if my stance wasn't clear enough to everyone, get vaccinated. I am no longer asking 🔪

How much does getting the vaccine lessen the probability of getting COVID? From the CDC, it suggests vaccinated people are 8 times less likely to be infected. How much rarer is that number necessarily?

Plus, delta variant becoming more common adds a new factor, nearly twice as contagious as the alpha variant. From a MMWR report, it suggests a reduced vaccine effectiveness for delta infections.

So, tbh it's totally plausible that a team has an outbreak or two. These guys come into so much contact with people in the arenas, in their personal lives, on the street, with other players. Fully vaccinated players "have reduced circumstances in which they are required to wear face coverings" and obviously there's a lack of them every game/on the bench/etc

4. What the vaccine has been pretty good about has been reducing symptoms/hospitalizations/deaths!

From the same MMWR report, incidence ratios for hospitalizations and deaths have not changed much since delta's onset -- vaccines are still effective against severe COVID.

The vaccine reduces the likelihood of hospitalization and death, and from an anecdotal standpoint that's what we've been seeing in a lot of these players!

ZAR went through COVID protocol with "mild" symptoms, and Guenztel, Jarry and Carter have all been reported asymptomatic. Mackinnon and Scheifele were also asymptomatic.

You look at Josh Archibald, Alex Stalock, Marco Rossi, etc (unvaccinated when infected, whether by choice or circumstance) + the massive canucks outbreak with some intense symptoms.

Anecdotal evidence still (Wheeler out positive + with symptoms, unvaccinated players obv can be asymptomatic). It still seems to set a different tone, though?

Being put on COVID protocol could also mean a player was in close contact w someone else with COVID, and obv a lot of organizations aren't actually disclosing symptoms/severity/health to the public. At the end of the day, there's a lot of stuff we really don't know, and I don't blame you for doubting them with the record that the NHL has had with a lot of other things. I'd like to hope that they are doing better with this though :/