#i would love to see what brian watkins would have done with the second season

[likearolloftape]

welp

[yahoo-roto-arcade-blog]

Shuffle Up: Amari Cooper's almost-touchdown problem

Will Amari Cooper see a touchdown spike in year 3? (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

Want to make a bunch of strangers upset at you? Rank something.

This time, we’re at the wide receiver position. It’s a deep position, a fun position. And it’s also a damn important one, because more and more leagues are moving towards formats that require 3-4 wideouts, if not more.

The prices you see are not suggested auction prices — those numbers are so room-contextual, it would be a fool’s errand to suggest any one size fits all. The dollar values below are merely used as a way to compare the players and give you a sense of where the tiers lay (in my opinion, anyway); where talent clusters and where it falls off. I also construct each positional Shuffle Up on its own, so don’t bother trying to compare Kelvin Benjamin, say, with Mike Gillislee. That’s not the exercise.

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Players at the same price are considered even. And honestly, a $1-2 difference isn’t a big deal. I’m not going to pretend some lofty level of certainty with these prices when I know what a snow-globe league the NFL is.

Assume a modified PPR scoring system, a half-point per reception (just don’t tell Behrens).

I’ll add commentary Sunday, and reserve the right to change things as the day goes along. Win the debate, win the rank. Oh, and two other things: I love respectful disagreement, but bring a reason; aimless rants are just a waste of time. And remember the golden rule, no player gains or loses a chunk of value simply because you roster him or don’t roster him.

Want to take a shot at my knees? Head over to Twitter and let me know what you think: @scott_pianowski. And if you want to hear Michael Salfino and I argue about receivers (okay, some agreement too), you can listen here.

Tier 1  $46 Antonio Brown $44 Odell Beckham

If you’re a little concerned about Ben Roethlisberger and wanted to flip these two guys, I wouldn’t argue with you. My Top 4 for most of the season (all positions) has been DJ, Bell, Brown, Beckham. I’m thrilled to draft any in that group, and view the Top 4 slots an advantage, perhaps an unfair advantage, in a standard league. I remain shocked more people don’t want to auction.

Tier 1A $41 Mike Evans $40 Julio Jones $39 A.J. Green $36 Jordy Nelson $35 Michael Thomas

Initially I had Evans and Jones even, but with Evans being younger and Jones being a little TD-allergic for his career, I decided on a slight separation . . . Don’t sweat the historical target trends with the Saints; you don’t need silly volume to go off in the Drew Brees pinball offense. Thomas is a high-floor pick around the 1-2 turn.

Tier 2 $32 Doug Baldwin $32 Dez Bryant $31 Amari Cooper $30 Brandin Cooks $28 Demaryius Thomas

I’m torn on Cooper’s fantasy value, and it pains me to say that. He just turned 23 in mid-June, and he’s off to a historically great start. Since the merger, only eight wideouts have more receiving yards in their first two seasons than Cooper’s 2,223. It’s a list covered in glory: Beckham, Moss, Rice, Josh Gordon (oh, what could have been), Holt, Green, Evans, Colston. All names you know by heart, fantasy-era gods.

Alas, Cooper has scored just 11 touchdowns in his two seasons, and he’s been a dud close to the goal line. In his rookie year, he didn’t even draw a target inside the 10-yard line. Last year he had seven looks, none of them for completions. Let’s say this again for emphasis — Cooper still doesn’t have a single catch inside the 10-yard line for his career (though he has caught a pair of conversion flips).

The goal-line disconnect is a few things; partly, it’s a desire not to change what’s working. The Raiders have a terrific boundary receiver in Michael Crabtree, and he’s outscored Cooper the last two years. Is there any great incentive to change what’s not broken? Cooper’s TD count has also been dogged by some bad luck, a toe out of bounds here, a long-score overturned there. If you’ve lived and died with him through two years, you know exactly what I’m talking about.

Although I’m open-minded to taking Cooper at many portions of the second round, perhaps the strongest reason to pass on him is so you can remain open to perhaps selecting the unheralded value, Crabtree, in the fourth or perhaps even the fifth round.

If you’ve missed my ongoing love letter to Doug Baldwin, it’s right here . . . How you view Demaryius Thomas probably comes down to how you view Trevor Siemian, who is close to locking up the Denver QB job. I think Siemian has a chance to at least be competent — I didn’t want to see Lynch in there — and heck, the worst Thomas has done in five years is last year’s 90-1083-5. He’s just 28. I think there’s a sturdy floor here.

Tier 3 $25 Terrelle Pryor $24 T.Y. Hilton $21 Davante Adams $21 DeAndre Hopkins $19 Allen Robinson $19 Michael Crabtree $19 Tyreek Hill $19 Golden Tate $18 Emmanuel Sanders $18 Keenan Allen

Everyone has to decide for themselves if Allen is more injury prone or injury unlucky (we talked a lot about that on the Breakfast Table Wideout Podcast) . . . This price seems like a steal on Hilton if you’re willing to be optimistic about Andrew Luck’s injury and 2017 upside. I’m not, so I’m basically slotting Hilton at a price where I’ll never get him . . . This price will probably keep Hopkins and Robinson off your teams, which is a great idea if you’ve the Jacksonville QB depth chart or Deshaun Watson’s summer tape. Both of these teams will try to win with defense and a hide-the-quarterback offense. Houston might get away with it; Jacksonville probably isn’t ready yet.

Tier 4 $17 Willie Snead $17 Jamison Crowder $16 Jarvis Landry $16 Larry Fitzgerald $15 Julian Edelman $15 Kelvin Benjamin $15 Alshon Jeffery $15 Stefon Diggs $14 Martavis Bryant $13 Sammy Watkins

There are some interesting beauty/beholder picks here, if you’re willing to be open-minded. Snead probably won’t run as a “starter” but he’ll be on the field enough for me to consider him late-fourth or early-fifth; he’s a steal in the sixth. Pundits are running so fast from Landry, he’s starting to become one of those boring-floor veterans. Not all of your picks need to be screaming with hair-on-fire upside. Benjamin’s weight was a problem in the spring but he looks fine now.

Tier 5 $12 Tyrell Williams $11 Pierre Garcon $11 Cameron Meredith $10 DeSean Jackson $10 Kenny Britt $9 Adam Thielen $9 Rishard Matthews

Here’s the thing with some of the good-player, bad-team receivers like Garcon and Meredith and Britt: I love them if they’re all-upside pieces on my roster, players I don’t necessarily need to count on right away. In other words, if you have at least three wide receivers ahead of them, you should be fine. I am not comfortable selecting them at a position where I need them to be good. All three of these guys have flags to begin with, and then we have to consider the limited upside of their quarterbacks (to be fair on Brian Hoyer, his durability concerns me more than anything; his talent is fine, and I like the Kyle Shanahan pairing) . . . Williams and Matthews are monstrous ADP wins if they produce anything close to last year’s numbers, but that’s a little bit of a cheat. The position looks overly stacked this year because we have a handful of key injury returnees who demanded key ranks, and some other ascending players who have drafters excited. And obviously Williams has to deal with Allen’s return, while Matthews all of a sudden finds himself on a crowded Tennessee depth chart. I still like them as reasonable WR4s, and sometimes you’re lucky to slot them one spot lower than that. We don’t have to dream of the upside, we saw it last year, especially in the second half . . . I like Diggs just fine, but similar to the Cooper-Crabtree issue, I’d like to skip Diggs — unless I love the price — so I can keep myself open to Thielen later. Thielen’s efficiency metrics were out of this world last year, and the Vikings paid him like a key contributor.

Tier 6 $8 Devante Parker $8 Randall Cobb $8 Eric Decker $8 Jeremy Maclin $7 Donte Moncrief $7 Brandon Marshall $6 Marvin Jones $6 Robby Anderson $5 Corey Coleman $5 John Brown

There’s zero downfield component to Cobb’s game, and the team has plenty of options for the things he’s good at. I’ll take him at my price, not at an aggressive price . . . I wasn’t optimistic about Hilton because of Luck; Moncrief’s depressed price is tied to Moncrief’s long-running efficiency problems . . . The Jets will have a mess at quarterback all year, but Anderson has such a high volume upside now that Quincy Enunwa is hurt, he’s worth a dart throw once you have your starters squared away.

Tier 7 $4 Mike Wallace $4 Devin Funchess $4 Tyler Lockett $4 Jordan Matthews $3 Sterling Shepard $3 Cole Beasley $3 Kenny Stills $3 Ted Ginn $3 Josh Doctson $3 Corey Davis $2 Allen Hurns $2 Robert Woods $2 J.J. Nelson $2 Cooper Kupp $2 Paul Richardson $2 Taylor Gabriel $2 Travis Benjamin

I see the case for Funchess but I’m uncomfortable chasing it; the Panthers have three pass-catchers clearly ahead of him on the food chain, plus Cam Newton will still run in a few . . . Ginn would get a tier bump if you’re thinking about best-ball leagues, but he’s tricky to trust in standard formats because there’s generally no rhyme or reason to when his breakouts come. To some extent, the entire position is boom-or-bust, but he’s on the extreme side. We don’t mind in best ball, but this is a problem in seasonal.

Everyone Else $1 Malcolm Mitchell $1 Jaron Brown $1 Kenny Golladay $1 Anquan Boldin $1 Zay Jones $1 Chris Hogan $1 John Ross $1 Chris Conley $1 Tavon Austin $1 Torrey Smith $1 Marqise Lee $1 Kevin White $1 Nelson Agholor $0 Tyler Boyd $0 Eli Rogers $0 Will Fuller $0 Mike Williams $0 Breshad Perriman $0 Josh Gordon $0 Mohamed Sanu $0 Terrance Williams $0 Marquise Goodwin $0 Kamar Aiken

I wanted to have Mitchell in the higher group, but he’s been dinged this summer and there’s so much gridlock ahead of him . . . I’ll believe the sunshine when I see it with Agholor. The only Eagle I’m drafting proactively is Zach Ertz . . . Lee would be $4-5 if healthy . . . White’s on his third rookie season and he still doesn’t have any of the nuances of the position down. Terrific athlete, but doesn’t look like a football player. I’ll throw my dart elsewhere.

[cover32-yahoopartner-blog]

Buffalo Bills: Things we know this week

I settled in to spend some time following the NHL expansion draft. The new Las Vegas Golden Knights go ‘live to air’ this fall, competing as the first NHL expansion team since Columbus and Minnesota came into the league many years ago, right around the time our beloved Buffalo Bills last competed in the playoffs.

I know many people like myself who travel the Vegas destination often due to friends and family residing in the valley; will be strategic moving forward with the dates of planned visits. Those dates will certainly be analyzed carefully before booking a flight based on when the Sabres play in Southern Nevada. Pretty smart..huh?

Teams spend days and weeks masterminding the best strategy on protecting and exposing players and minimizing the huge risks. I mentioned feeling smart, did I not? I was feeling this was a simple task due to a totally unrelated accomplishment, yet an accomplishment it was and confidence I did not lack.

I just recently solved the much anticipated ruse on the newly ABC re-creation of the 1970’s famous talent exhibition, The Gong Show. Riddle me this. I successfully identified the washed up English actor Tom Maitland as good old Wayne from SNL’s skit turned movies, Wayne’s World and Austin Power’s star, Michael Myers.

We won’t get into ‘I married an axe murderer’ or I may ruin this entire article, which I have been known to do… Really well played out over all, but just how long is it funny to have a well know celebrity on a game show hosting it as someone else. It did its job and got everyone’s attention. Andy Kaufman would be proud.

No deal… No problem… no worries… as long as in Positioning themselves only a small quantity of players of any significance are left unprotected. Significance could mean valuable players to your team’s performance on the ice remaining secure. Significant could also be a contract you truly want Vegas to select and take off of your hands.

As much as I love hockey being a rink rat growing up playing on multiple teams at a time throughout certain seasons, football drafts are just simply better. Regular season football games are simply better than regular season hockey games. I will gladly stack up an NHL playoff game against any sport for action, intensity, excitement, aggressiveness and pure entertainment.

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That being said 82 regular season hockey games take place to narrow it down the playoff teams and that can be long and at times uneventful, and yes I will say it, boring.

When it comes to drafts, once in a great while, your team may be involved with a chase like the Sabres were two seasons ago, basically tanking it to get the best chance to score Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel during a season where two franchise players were to be at the top of the draft. In football, the number one overall pick is usually brilliant his first year. Yes, the bust factor exists, but so do the Andrew Luck’s and Cam Newton’s lighting it up as a rookie.

If the Bills draft eighth overall, you expects a stud player who will be starting as a rookie no matter which side of the ball that player plays on. In hockey very high draft picks occasionally make the team the first year and often are so young they are returned to college or juniors.

So when sport writers state that the Buffalo Bills numbers are leaning towards a tank or all out rebuild, I do not believe it because they would not have kept Kyle Williams and Charles Clay around if they were planning on stripping to the bones and going 1-15… or worse.

I would guess they are retooling on the fly and if it results in a total bust of a season, bring on those top rated quarterbacks coming out of college. Because football players can be extremely impactful so quickly, I am willing to wait especially since we have already been waiting for 17 years.

In hockey a tank can seem to take an eternity. Yes Edmonton made the playoffs in McDavid’s second season. Heir rebuild though has been going on since about 2007. Many number one overall picks and still no team chemistry and no additional wins.

I am excited for the two new regimes under the ownership of the Pegula Empire. The Bills just appear more professional and carry themselves differently with their new front office. I can honestly see the Bills in the playoffs as much as the experts say no way. If the defense resembles anything of what it was prior to Rex Ryan’s arrival, then this season will be a successful one on the defensive side of the football. Jerry Hughes, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus all were amazing and without Mario Williams, they have Shaq Lawson and Lorenzo Alexander ready to crush the opponent’s quarterback.

Now if the offense can continue its dominance of the last two seasons rushing the football and improve on the passing game, they could have decent football team. Balanced for a change, on both sides of the ball, which could equal a winning season. I am not placing any world class wagers on that because they could also be a train wreck in that new systems are in place yet again which often times take half of a season to adapt to which in the 16 game season of the NFL, is far too late.

I think the Bills are one or two players or one or two injuries away from being really good or really bad. I think the Sabres are not there yet and are a team with a handful of good players for the future with way to many holes everywhere else.

A little comparison between the two major league teams in town is very much understandable being that both teams news is slow being in the offseason and both teams felt the wrath of Terry Pegula as the coach and general manager as well as many other coaching and front office positions were terminated of their employment meaning huge turnover in management.

I also don’t see either team having a Tim Murray style impulsive executive. Both GM’s were highly regarded and groomed and take the methodical sensible approach with limited risk factors, more like Darcy Regier. I apologize for that name because he was here for so many years, but patience was his game.

Doug Whaley was a gunslinger in that he pulled the trigger on moves like McCoy or trading away a ton for Sammy Watkins pick. He was involved in the trades to make the E.J. selection less of a reach and selecting Robert Woods. He never had an issue trading up or down to accomplish what he visioned was needed right there and then.

Tim Murray was the same in those ways. His deal getting Kane and O’Reilly were basically fantasies on talk radio that he made happen. But he also traded a number one pick for an unproven goalie with other options on the table. He traded away a top notch defensemen and a couple prospect defenseman the Sabres went from being viewed as having a very, very young defense with a bright future to a team that did not even have an NHL worthy defensive core. Some experts really even question the one defenseman the Sabres and the fans really rank high internally.

Enough about the ice hockey team comparisons for kicks, as justifiable as it is. My swimming pool water feels closer than the Sabers prospects are to actual ice — ice time in the near future — oh that was not very nice.

Now fine people in Bills Country and Sabers Land. Give me the opportunity to freshen up with a chunk of that gum that considers leaking liquid sweetener refreshing, ”chill out” like Arnold instructed cleverly as Mr. Freeze and ”Relax” only as Frankie goes to Hollywood did, guiding a generation. Those very important words being said, Ladies and Gentlemen I bring to you from a very nice plastic Adirondack chair between a cold swimming pool and not quite hot; hot tub as Hurley and Aldous look at me and look at me and look at me…that’s what dogs do, but really this is awkward…ok this is uncomfortable.

BILLS NEWS: Buffalo’s three most important players for 2017

Things We Know About The Buffalo Bills This Week:

Rookie wide receiver Zay Jones will have plenty of opportunity opposite Sammy Watkins this season. He was indeed the most targeted wide receiver in college ball in 2016 with 216.  The next best was Trent Taylor at 171 which surely separates the first and second place player in that category.

Opportunities are extremely important for rookies giving them more opportunity to make plays. If a rookie drop or out of bounds call happens with very limited opportunities it can be discouraging to the player and have him viewed wrongly by the league’s players. Racking up opportunities can create a sort memory if he makes errors, and if not, he can have one heck of a rookie season.

Bill Polian who built the dynasty that was the late 80’s and 90’s Buffalo Bills knows the Bills need to identify who will step up at the wide receiver position this year. He is not naïve to the question mark at running back behind Shady. I cannot get cute and ask the real Slim Shady to please stand up, because the Bills real Shady has done more than stand up since arriving in town.

He has carried the team while standing up. Polian also wants to see how the offensive line holds up in pass protection for T-Mobile. That may seem like a lot, but that is his job and he comes up with more questions about the World Champions if you give him the open microphone. He thinks this Bills team is going in the right direction for the first time since 2004.

He says the defense should take several weeks to gel, but after that it is a very similar scheme that Jim Swartz implemented and the talent is there. It could be a dominating defense up front with the line and the linebacking crew. Special teams should be decent since they kept that coaching faculty in place and they are big supporters in players who do multiple things and that is exactly what special team’s coaches want to, but rarely hear.

This year and next year will be break out years in the Queen City in Mr. Polian’s view. However, many other experts view this Bills team in a different light. Time will tell. I realize the more and more I read and listen that the 2004 Bills were really a special team. I really really hate missed opportunities.

What am I talking about in missed opportunities? That team choked, losing to third stringers the last week of the season. Wait… missed opportunities can work here because the Bills got all of the help they needed around the league that a win by them puts them in the playoffs.  So we would only be talking about a tiny 13 year playoff draught. Not too shabby

Good morning, Good afternoon, Good evening and in case I don’t see ya….good night.

READ MORE: Three wide receivers the Bills could target in 2018

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