#i think we should focus more on what lead that confession to happen aka wills own feelings desguised as elevens

[enamouredless]

controversial byler opinion moment... I don't think mike was lying during his monologue

[galaxyacerodoesart]

Me: Oh, I should go back at drawing some more “normal” stuff for the Sanders Sides fandom..i sure miss those guys just by themselves! No AUs, just them! c:

Also Me: I WILL throw my shitty cursed Sanderstuck AU at your guys faces and you all WILL ENJOY IT.

AKA. Homestuck Panel Edits are fun, and i won’t be letting go of my Sanderstuck AU too soon, so ya’ll better be ready for panel edits of this cursed AU in the future, because they certainly are fun to make asfsadjkasdklasj

All of my Sanderstuck sprites can be find HERE AND! Under Read more some background story for what is going on in this picture AND Virgil/Roman relationship in the AU in case anyone is interested in my train of thought during the making of this, BE WARNED THOUGH, it is long. I like to talk and give things details, don’t blame me >:’T

First, without getting too into the story itself of the AU, Virgil and Roman relationship in this AU is simple: 

At the Start, they couldn’t stand each other, their opinions and views on things were pretty much opposites, with Roman always trying to see the bright side of things while Virgil would jump straight to the bad and pessimistic side of things, so basically no matter what Roman would bring up to the table, Virgil would point the bad side of every single one of his ideas, which would lead to their endless rants and fights. They would talk with each other to begin with,mainly because both were friends with Logan and Patton (so they basically were dragged into conversations together by them). When shit hit the fan and Sburb happens, and everyone is dragged to pretty much save the universe, Virgil is obviously TERRIFIED and ready to just die and be the reason the universe ceased to exist in the first place, while Roman is seeing it as all he ever dreamed of (Being the hero?! Saving not only the world, BUT THE UNIVERSE?! Count he in) so again, their views of things clashed against one another, Roman wanting to jump and fight to the “greater good” and Virgil not believing for one second they can pull this through, eventually going with Roman saying Virgil wouldn’t be needed to end the game at all, since everything he did was bring everyone’s spirits down anyway (Which is definitely a lie, as, ironically, both him AND Virgil are the most important players, being a Space and Time players respectively, but obviously Roman isn’t aware of that at the start) this leads to a pretty awful tension in the team, as after hearing that Virgil isn’t talking to anyone for what feels like ages, completely isolating himself until he finally seems to just dissapears. Plot related things happen, with Virgil ending up going Grimdark at some point, just in time for Roman to come to terms and realize (with a lot of explanation and help realizing some shit from Logan, Patton, Thomas and even Remy) HOW WRONG he was about Virgil’s part in their game, and about Virgil as a person in general. His negative view of things weren’t his way to try to bring Roman’s ideas down, but to actually improve them, since pretty much all the time, all the “criticism” he received from Virgil would have improved his ideas if he just stopped to listen. Virgil wasn’t hating on everything Roman did, he actually cared so much about it, that he would try to make sure they were perfect, so everything would go well and no one would get hurt. After realizing that, Roman sets off to try to find and apologize to Virgil, so they can start from zero and actually become friends.

Meanwhile, on Virgil’s side, he literally isolated himself in the void believing everyone would be better without him holding them back like that, that was part of the reason at least, what he would never tell a soul, is that the words Roman threw at him did hit him HARD, since as far as he could remember, Virgil always admired Roman’s way of seeing things, and honestly wished he could see things as positively and passionate as he did, and would be lying to himself if he said he may or may not had develop some sort of crush on the other, but being to scared to do any sort of move, he just kept that little detail to himself, so yeah, Roman words really did hurt him. When Roman and the others FINALLY find Virgil, they all try to reach for him but he was into the void and believing in Roman’s words for so long, that it seemed almost impossible to pull him back, ending with the last person they would think would help to actually solve the issue and bring Virgil out of the void and out of his Grimdark state: Dolian. Sure, he was a Void Player, but no one really imagined he would be willing to help out like that, but since everyone was too busy crying tears of happiness to have Virgil back, they let it slide. When he is able to finally talk with Virgil, Roman tells him all he realized while he was gone, and gives the most sincere apologize he can manage, to which Virgil accepts after understanding Roman’s side of things. 

Time jump  a few weeks, everyone is gathered around the same living-space at this point (Think the meteor in Homestuck where Kanaya, Rose, Karkat, Dave and Terezi stay, it’s pretty much the same thing) Roman does keep his word of trying to understand more Virgil way of thinking, and slow but surely, they get to the point where they can call each other “friends” which while is amazing (Patton is SO proud of his boys omg) things definitely aren’t easy on Virgil’s heart, as the silly crush he had on Roman before Sburb happened only gets stronger now that both are on actual good terms, Virgil only ever told Logan about said crush, as he know the others wouldn’t tell a soul about it, or make a big event of it, so at that point, Logan is Virgil’s “to go talk about this stupid crush” guy.  At one point, already getting enough of all that, Logan just straight up suggests that Virgil just TELLS Roman how he feels, literally going on saying “Realistic, we literally don’t know if we will even survive the events of this game, so you really don’t have anything to lose by telling him how you feel”  to which Virgil panics almost screaming how he “can’t just tell someone how much he loves them” which had Logan responding with “Then just write your feelings down. Not saying you will need to send him a letter saying how you feel, but it might make things easier for you to get all this pressure out of your shoulders” to which Virgil reluctantly agrees.  Unknown to BOTH of them, Roman was hearing the whole conversation (Don’t blame him, the space they are isn’t exactly huge, and neither of them really were using indoor voices anyway) although he doesn’t really know WHO IS the person they are talking about as no name was dropped any time, all Roman knows, is that Virgil has a crush on someone and is struggling to tell them. Which, surprise surprise, low key hurts Roman, who was actually starting to develop a crush on Virgil as well, now that he knew who he really was. And no, of course at no point Roman stops to consider he might be the person Virgil is talking about, he hurt Virgil in the past right?! His words and stupid beliefs almost lead to Virgil being completely lost and left to die in the void, no way Virgil would have a crush on him after all that. Whoever, for the first time in what seems forever, Roman decides to push his own feelings and needs aside, and actually focus on Virgil’s instead. If Virgil needed help confessing to who he loved, he was going to help him! That’s what friends do, he owned him after all he did! He was a hopeless romantic anyway, if there was one thing he knew, was how to confess to someone, so even if it hurt, Roman would make Virgil and whoever he liked be together and happily ever after! It is what Virgil deserves, happiness, right?! Who cares about his own feelings, Roman would be fine. He probably didn’t deserve Virgil anyway, not after all he has done to him. 

And unknown to both, Roman and Virgil, literally everyone in that place knows about their crushes on each other, they are obvious like that. But they all respect their own wishes and are willing to let them tell each other their feelings in their own time. Which sadly seems like it will take a while because, goddammit, those two are slow when they want to.

SOOO YEAH. That’s pretty much how Prinxiety works in this AU. Two idiots who clearly love each other, but one doesn’t know how to tell the other, and the other don’t believe he deserves to be with the other after all he did to him. The idea behind the panel I edited is pretty much a follow of the last details i explained, Virgil writing his feelings down on letters that (if depending on him) will never really be given to Roman, while Roman wants to help Virgil write his heart out, because “he owns him for everything he did in the past”, despite the fact he would want nothing more than be together in a relationship with Virgil at that point, and Virgil obviously trying to push him aside because “HELLO?! HOW CAN I WRITE DOWN ABOUT MY CRUSH FOR YOU IF YOU ARE LITERALLY NEXT TO ME?! NO, STOP! DON’T YOU DARE READ ANYTHING IN THAT PAPER!!!” but Roman isn’t giving up on helping him so he can finally be happy like he deserves to be. 

[sunshineweb]

Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered

Here is my attempt to answers a few key questions I have received from Safal Niveshak readers on the current turmoil in the stock market.

You won’t find perfect answers below, but this is just my attempt to help you get over your fears, which may otherwise lead you to act in haste, which can cause some damage to your process of long term wealth creation.

Let’s start right here.

1. Why is the market crashing? It hasn’t crashed…so far! The BSE-Sensex is down just 6% from its peak this year. BSE-Smallcap is down 14%. BSE-Midcap is down 11%. This isn’t a crash!

If you think it is, you maybe be suffering from ‘denominator blindness’, which is the tendency to focus on the absolute number then the percentage decline. Or you just seem to have been spoilt by rising markets over the past few years and were not investing in 2008 when the last real crash happened. That was painful for people who experienced it with their money (and not just their eyes and ears). We have not seen anything like that since then.

Okay, while I see that since their record highs in late 2018, the midcap and smallcap indices are down around 25% and 35% respective (which unofficially may be termed a bear market in such stocks), most high-quality small and midcap stocks still trade around fair to rich valuations.

We also need to understand that the stock market moves in cycles, and thus fluctuations are inevitable. Like you enjoyed the upcycle for a long time till it turned down last year, you need to happy accept the current part of the cycle too.

Remember what the Bhagavad Gita says – the very texture of life is of duality – pain and pleasure, success and defeat, birth, and death. Investing, with its bull and bear markets, cannot get away from such duality.

You may hold on to the hope that you would isolate your gains, take them home, and throw your losses out. This has been the hope of every ambitious investor, but up to this day no one has succeeded. Anyone who goes after gains (pleasure) must not complain when he comes across losses (pain). Markets serve this reminder frequently, and we must accept this.

2. Ok, not a crash. Why is the market falling? If you go by the news, people are talking about poor budget, FII outflows, domestic slowdown, poor corporate results, P/E derating, poor monsoons, higher taxes on the rich, bad loans, cheating managements, fragile financial system, etc. But the reality is far more complicated I believe. It’s a mix of all these factors and some more.

My best guess for why the market is falling is that that (more) people are selling more stocks than they are buying. And this seems because there are more people with less stomach to withstand such temporary setbacks.

3. Are we headed to another 2008 like situation? Ah, whether this situation is like 2008 is impossible to predict. You may be hearing some predictions on business television, but then as I mentioned, predicting is futile and I am not an expert in it.

All I can say is whether this turns out to be like 2008 or not is unknown. But it seems that things could remain difficult for some time to come…and can get more difficult if you continue to watch and read those headlines in business media that has a habit of taking things out of proportions.

So, if you wish to curtail your worries, first please stop watching/reading such media. That will give you ample time and sense to think calmly and wisely through this situation.

After the latest decline, stocks are a little cheaper than they were before it all began. But they could get a lot cheaper still before this is over.

4. Oh, so you are saying the market is still risky? First, you must learn to differentiate between ‘risk’ and ‘uncertainty.’

Risk is when we don’t know what is going to happen next, but we know the probability of various outcomes from that event. Rolling dice is an example.

Real risks in investing are that of losing money, and missing opportunities. Sadly, we ignore the first risk when stock prices are rising, and the second risk when they are falling.

Uncertainty, on the other hand, is when we don’t know what is going to happen next, and neither do we know the probability of various outcomes from that event. Genuine uncertainty occurs in complex systems, where lots of actors interact over time – the economy and stock market are examples.

Real opportunities for profit only exist in the face of uncertainty, like something we have now. Which means that if we want to invest for success, we not only have to deal with uncertainty, we must seek it out, and then adapt to it.

5. Can’t help…I am still worried! Should I sell and cash out before the market falls further? Investing is very personal, so there is no single advice that would apply to all. But just understand this that if you are sure of your job (cash flows) for the next few years, you have a monthly surplus, and your goals are far away (say, beyond ten years), just continue investing.

If you are becoming agitated with such a correction (not crash!), then you must be worried. In fact, you must seriously reconsider your decision to be in direct equities.

Remember what George Goodman aka Adam Smith once said – “If you don’t know who you are, [stock market] is an expensive place to find out.”

A long-term view requires an ability to stomach extreme short-term market volatility. If you can’t do that, you may want to move your money to other instruments like bank fixed deposits and liquid/debt funds.

Jason Zweig wrote in a post on WSJ – “In order to capture the potentially higher returns that stocks can offer, you have to reconcile yourself to the certainty of horrifying short-term losses. If you can’t do that, you shouldn’t be in stocks—and shouldn’t feel any shame about it, either.”

6. Is this an opportunity to buy more stocks? If you have identified businesses that have great potential, according to your analysis, to be wealth compounders, then yes! Such market falls will look like tiny blips over a 10-year period. Don’t interrupt the compounding unless there is a question about the quality of the compounding machine i.e., the underlying business and/or its management.

But here is a caveat – If you think this a time to be greedy because everybody seems to be panicking, then ask yourself whether your greed is driven by your confidence in rational analysis of the business, or is it actually a manifestation of underlying fear, the fear of missing out? Is this really an opportunity or just a distraction?

Don’t forget, short term market fluctuations are severe distractions for our awareness about long term gains.

The few questions you must ask yourself are:

Would this fall impact long term cash flows of the businesses I own?

Would this fall impact the very foundations of these businesses?

Have I invested using borrowed money?

Have I invested in stocks based on tips, as I know nothing about the underlying businesses?

Would I need the money I’ve invested in stocks over the next 1-3 years?

If the answer to all the above questions is ‘no’, then there is no reason for you to panic. Sit back and relax.

7. So what should I do? I want a final answer. When you have no move, my friend, you do not move. You do nothing! Sit tight and read a good book.

On the other hand, if you have a well-thought-out move on how to deal with this situation, then move! But first, please move and switch off that business channel. Don’t let the experts’ running commentary fool you into thinking that they can help you identify (especially using charts) some exact entry point at which you can know you’re buying back into stocks at a bargain level. The future is uncertain, and no chart or predication can add any certainty to it.

In all, act wisely and never accept anything at face value. And do not indulge in spreading the market crash panic and rumours further. As the Jewish proverb goes – “What you don’t see with your eyes, don’t witness with your mouth.”

8. All this sounds soothing, but I remain unnerved. What do you suggest I should do? As I said, don’t worry and don’t act in haste.

And please remember, as always, this too shall pass!

9. Should I shift some money to gold? Heard it’s an insurance against bad times. Being an Indian, I look at gold more from emotional and traditional reasons. You are right that it acts as insurance in times when other assets are cracking. But you don’t overdo on insurance, do you?

I would not have more than 10% of my portfolio in gold, and especially in case I need to gift it to my daughter in the future. I just do not think more than that is necessary. It does not produce the cash flows, plus its price depends on the greater fool theory. But does it need to be 15% of your portfolio? No, that is too much. I think you are better off owning stocks for the long run.

10. By the way, my portfolio manager just gave me some good news. I made a profit of 40% last year, and now my portfolio is down 30%…so I am still net-net 10% in profit. That’s comforting, isn’t it? Fire your portfolio manager! 100 growing to 140 and then falling by 30% doesn’t become 110. It becomes, hold your breath, 98. So, I’m sorry, but you are -2% down!

11. Oh my God! Well, let me finally confess something. I recently doubled down on stocks and bought a lot based on my manager’s and friend’s advice. They recommended some beaten down businesses in the NBFC space, though I don’t really understand how that business works. Anyways, now these stocks are substantially lower in prices now. What should I do of them? Please take my advice here. Sell all your stocks, even if in a loss, and move completely out of the stock market. It is not a place for you. Come back only when you are wiser about your investments, know where you are putting your money, and are willing to do your own homework before investing your hard-earned money.

12. What stocks you are buying? Short answer – Please spare me!

Long answer – See I told you, the stock market is not a place for you. You will ask for my tips, and God forbid, I give you some, you will blindly invest in them. Then, when those stocks fall and you lose money, you will abuse me and tell me what a fool I am.

So, let me tell you upfront that I am a fool with no good stock tips to offer. Plus, I have been wrong many times in the past. As Jesse Livermore is supposed to have said – “Tips! How people want tips! They crave not only to get them but to give them. There is greed involved, and vanity. It is very amusing, at times, to watch really intelligent people fish for them. And the tip-giver need not hesitate about the quality, for the tip-seeker is not really after good tips, but after any tip. If it makes good, fine! If it doesn’t, better luck with the next.

“It has always seemed to me the height of damfoolishness to trade on tips.

“Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin. First of all you have no idea what position that tipper is in. He may not even hold the stock he is recommending. Even if he is, you have no idea when he will unload his lot. Suppose he is selling his stock to you. Then you would be forced to dump it to someone else for a higher price.”

Got it? No? So again, please spare me!

The post Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered appeared first on Safal Niveshak.

Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered published first on https://mbploans.tumblr.com/

[sunshineweb]

Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered

Here is my attempt to answers a few key questions I have received from Safal Niveshak readers on the current turmoil in the stock market.

You won’t find perfect answers below, but this is just my attempt to help you get over your fears, which may otherwise lead you to act in haste, which can cause some damage to your process of long term wealth creation.

Let’s start right here.

1. Why is the market crashing? It hasn’t crashed…so far! The BSE-Sensex is down just 6% from its peak this year. BSE-Smallcap is down 14%. BSE-Midcap is down 11%. This isn’t a crash!

If you think it is, you maybe be suffering from ‘denominator blindness’, which is the tendency to focus on the absolute number then the percentage decline. Or you just seem to have been spoilt by rising markets over the past few years and were not investing in 2008 when the last real crash happened. That was painful for people who experienced it with their money (and not just their eyes and ears). We have not seen anything like that since then.

Okay, while I see that since their record highs in late 2018, the midcap and smallcap indices are down around 25% and 35% respective (which unofficially may be termed a bear market in such stocks), most high-quality small and midcap stocks still trade around fair to rich valuations.

We also need to understand that the stock market moves in cycles, and thus fluctuations are inevitable. Like you enjoyed the upcycle for a long time till it turned down last year, you need to happy accept the current part of the cycle too.

Remember what the Bhagavad Gita says – the very texture of life is of duality – pain and pleasure, success and defeat, birth, and death. Investing, with its bull and bear markets, cannot get away from such duality.

You may hold on to the hope that you would isolate your gains, take them home, and throw your losses out. This has been the hope of every ambitious investor, but up to this day no one has succeeded. Anyone who goes after gains (pleasure) must not complain when he comes across losses (pain). Markets serve this reminder frequently, and we must accept this.

2. Ok, not a crash. Why is the market falling? If you go by the news, people are talking about poor budget, FII outflows, domestic slowdown, poor corporate results, P/E derating, poor monsoons, higher taxes on the rich, bad loans, cheating managements, fragile financial system, etc. But the reality is far more complicated I believe. It’s a mix of all these factors and some more.

My best guess for why the market is falling is that that (more) people are selling more stocks than they are buying. And this seems because there are more people with less stomach to withstand such temporary setbacks.

3. Are we headed to another 2008 like situation? Ah, whether this situation is like 2008 is impossible to predict. You may be hearing some predictions on business television, but then as I mentioned, predicting is futile and I am not an expert in it.

All I can say is whether this turns out to be like 2008 or not is unknown. But it seems that things could remain difficult for some time to come…and can get more difficult if you continue to watch and read those headlines in business media that has a habit of taking things out of proportions.

So, if you wish to curtail your worries, first please stop watching/reading such media. That will give you ample time and sense to think calmly and wisely through this situation.

After the latest decline, stocks are a little cheaper than they were before it all began. But they could get a lot cheaper still before this is over.

4. Oh, so you are saying the market is still risky? First, you must learn to differentiate between ‘risk’ and ‘uncertainty.’

Risk is when we don’t know what is going to happen next, but we know the probability of various outcomes from that event. Rolling dice is an example.

Real risks in investing are that of losing money, and missing opportunities. Sadly, we ignore the first risk when stock prices are rising, and the second risk when they are falling.

Uncertainty, on the other hand, is when we don’t know what is going to happen next, and neither do we know the probability of various outcomes from that event. Genuine uncertainty occurs in complex systems, where lots of actors interact over time – the economy and stock market are examples.

Real opportunities for profit only exist in the face of uncertainty, like something we have now. Which means that if we want to invest for success, we not only have to deal with uncertainty, we must seek it out, and then adapt to it.

5. Can’t help…I am still worried! Should I sell and cash out before the market falls further? Investing is very personal, so there is no single advice that would apply to all. But just understand this that if you are sure of your job (cash flows) for the next few years, you have a monthly surplus, and your goals are far away (say, beyond ten years), just continue investing.

If you are becoming agitated with such a correction (not crash!), then you must be worried. In fact, you must seriously reconsider your decision to be in direct equities.

Remember what George Goodman aka Adam Smith once said – “If you don’t know who you are, [stock market] is an expensive place to find out.”

A long-term view requires an ability to stomach extreme short-term market volatility. If you can’t do that, you may want to move your money to other instruments like bank fixed deposits and liquid/debt funds.

Jason Zweig wrote in a post on WSJ – “In order to capture the potentially higher returns that stocks can offer, you have to reconcile yourself to the certainty of horrifying short-term losses. If you can’t do that, you shouldn’t be in stocks—and shouldn’t feel any shame about it, either.”

6. Is this an opportunity to buy more stocks? If you have identified businesses that have great potential, according to your analysis, to be wealth compounders, then yes! Such market falls will look like tiny blips over a 10-year period. Don’t interrupt the compounding unless there is a question about the quality of the compounding machine i.e., the underlying business and/or its management.

But here is a caveat – If you think this a time to be greedy because everybody seems to be panicking, then ask yourself whether your greed is driven by your confidence in rational analysis of the business, or is it actually a manifestation of underlying fear, the fear of missing out? Is this really an opportunity or just a distraction?

Don’t forget, short term market fluctuations are severe distractions for our awareness about long term gains.

The few questions you must ask yourself are:

Would this fall impact long term cash flows of the businesses I own?

Would this fall impact the very foundations of these businesses?

Have I invested using borrowed money?

Have I invested in stocks based on tips, as I know nothing about the underlying businesses?

Would I need the money I’ve invested in stocks over the next 1-3 years?

If the answer to all the above questions is ‘no’, then there is no reason for you to panic. Sit back and relax.

7. So what should I do? I want a final answer. When you have no move, my friend, you do not move. You do nothing! Sit tight and read a good book.

On the other hand, if you have a well-thought-out move on how to deal with this situation, then move! But first, please move and switch off that business channel. Don’t let the experts’ running commentary fool you into thinking that they can help you identify (especially using charts) some exact entry point at which you can know you’re buying back into stocks at a bargain level. The future is uncertain, and no chart or predication can add any certainty to it.

In all, act wisely and never accept anything at face value. And do not indulge in spreading the market crash panic and rumours further. As the Jewish proverb goes – “What you don’t see with your eyes, don’t witness with your mouth.”

8. All this sounds soothing, but I remain unnerved. What do you suggest I should do? As I said, don’t worry and don’t act in haste.

And please remember, as always, this too shall pass!

9. Should I shift some money to gold? Heard it’s an insurance against bad times. Being an Indian, I look at gold more from emotional and traditional reasons. You are right that it acts as insurance in times when other assets are cracking. But you don’t overdo on insurance, do you?

I would not have more than 10% of my portfolio in gold, and especially in case I need to gift it to my daughter in the future. I just do not think more than that is necessary. It does not produce the cash flows, plus its price depends on the greater fool theory. But does it need to be 15% of your portfolio? No, that is too much. I think you are better off owning stocks for the long run.

10. By the way, my portfolio manager just gave me some good news. I made a profit of 40% last year, and now my portfolio is down 30%…so I am still net-net 10% in profit. That’s comforting, isn’t it? Fire your portfolio manager! 100 growing to 140 and then falling by 30% doesn’t become 110. It becomes, hold your breath, 98. So, I’m sorry, but you are -2% down!

11. Oh my God! Well, let me finally confess something. I recently doubled down on stocks and bought a lot based on my manager’s and friend’s advice. They recommended some beaten down businesses in the NBFC space, though I don’t really understand how that business works. Anyways, now these stocks are substantially lower in prices now. What should I do of them? Please take my advice here. Sell all your stocks, even if in a loss, and move completely out of the stock market. It is not a place for you. Come back only when you are wiser about your investments, know where you are putting your money, and are willing to do your own homework before investing your hard-earned money.

12. What stocks you are buying? Short answer – Please spare me!

Long answer – See I told you, the stock market is not a place for you. You will ask for my tips, and God forbid, I give you some, you will blindly invest in them. Then, when those stocks fall and you lose money, you will abuse me and tell me what a fool I am.

So, let me tell you upfront that I am a fool with no good stock tips to offer. Plus, I have been wrong many times in the past. As Jesse Livermore is supposed to have said – “Tips! How people want tips! They crave not only to get them but to give them. There is greed involved, and vanity. It is very amusing, at times, to watch really intelligent people fish for them. And the tip-giver need not hesitate about the quality, for the tip-seeker is not really after good tips, but after any tip. If it makes good, fine! If it doesn’t, better luck with the next.

“It has always seemed to me the height of damfoolishness to trade on tips.

“Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin. First of all you have no idea what position that tipper is in. He may not even hold the stock he is recommending. Even if he is, you have no idea when he will unload his lot. Suppose he is selling his stock to you. Then you would be forced to dump it to someone else for a higher price.”

Got it? No? So again, please spare me!

The post Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered appeared first on Safal Niveshak.

Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered published first on https://mbploans.tumblr.com/

[sunshineweb]

Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered

Here is my attempt to answers a few key questions I have received from Safal Niveshak readers on the current turmoil in the stock market.

You won’t find perfect answers below, but this is just my attempt to help you get over your fears, which may otherwise lead you to act in haste, which can cause some damage to your process of long term wealth creation.

Let’s start right here.

1. Why is the market crashing? It hasn’t crashed…so far! The BSE-Sensex is down just 6% from its peak this year. BSE-Smallcap is down 14%. BSE-Midcap is down 11%. This isn’t a crash!

If you think it is, you maybe be suffering from ‘denominator blindness’, which is the tendency to focus on the absolute number then the percentage decline. Or you just seem to have been spoilt by rising markets over the past few years and were not investing in 2008 when the last real crash happened. That was painful for people who experienced it with their money (and not just their eyes and ears). We have not seen anything like that since then.

Okay, while I see that since their record highs in late 2018, the midcap and smallcap indices are down around 25% and 35% respective (which unofficially may be termed a bear market in such stocks), most high-quality small and midcap stocks still trade around fair to rich valuations.

We also need to understand that the stock market moves in cycles, and thus fluctuations are inevitable. Like you enjoyed the upcycle for a long time till it turned down last year, you need to happy accept the current part of the cycle too.

Remember what the Bhagavad Gita says – the very texture of life is of duality – pain and pleasure, success and defeat, birth, and death. Investing, with its bull and bear markets, cannot get away from such duality.

You may hold on to the hope that you would isolate your gains, take them home, and throw your losses out. This has been the hope of every ambitious investor, but up to this day no one has succeeded. Anyone who goes after gains (pleasure) must not complain when he comes across losses (pain). Markets serve this reminder frequently, and we must accept this.

2. Ok, not a crash. Why is the market falling? If you go by the news, people are talking about poor budget, FII outflows, domestic slowdown, poor corporate results, P/E derating, poor monsoons, higher taxes on the rich, bad loans, cheating managements, fragile financial system, etc. But the reality is far more complicated I believe. It’s a mix of all these factors and some more.

My best guess for why the market is falling is that that (more) people are selling more stocks than they are buying. And this seems because there are more people with less stomach to withstand such temporary setbacks.

3. Are we headed to another 2008 like situation? Ah, whether this situation is like 2008 is impossible to predict. You may be hearing some predictions on business television, but then as I mentioned, predicting is futile and I am not an expert in it.

All I can say is whether this turns out to be like 2008 or not is unknown. But it seems that things could remain difficult for some time to come…and can get more difficult if you continue to watch and read those headlines in business media that has a habit of taking things out of proportions.

So, if you wish to curtail your worries, first please stop watching/reading such media. That will give you ample time and sense to think calmly and wisely through this situation.

After the latest decline, stocks are a little cheaper than they were before it all began. But they could get a lot cheaper still before this is over.

4. Oh, so you are saying the market is still risky? First, you must learn to differentiate between ‘risk’ and ‘uncertainty.’

Risk is when we don’t know what is going to happen next, but we know the probability of various outcomes from that event. Rolling dice is an example.

Real risks in investing are that of losing money, and missing opportunities. Sadly, we ignore the first risk when stock prices are rising, and the second risk when they are falling.

Uncertainty, on the other hand, is when we don’t know what is going to happen next, and neither do we know the probability of various outcomes from that event. Genuine uncertainty occurs in complex systems, where lots of actors interact over time – the economy and stock market are examples.

Real opportunities for profit only exist in the face of uncertainty, like something we have now. Which means that if we want to invest for success, we not only have to deal with uncertainty, we must seek it out, and then adapt to it.

5. Can’t help…I am still worried! Should I sell and cash out before the market falls further? Investing is very personal, so there is no single advice that would apply to all. But just understand this that if you are sure of your job (cash flows) for the next few years, you have a monthly surplus, and your goals are far away (say, beyond ten years), just continue investing.

If you are becoming agitated with such a correction (not crash!), then you must be worried. In fact, you must seriously reconsider your decision to be in direct equities.

Remember what George Goodman aka Adam Smith once said – “If you don’t know who you are, [stock market] is an expensive place to find out.”

A long-term view requires an ability to stomach extreme short-term market volatility. If you can’t do that, you may want to move your money to other instruments like bank fixed deposits and liquid/debt funds.

Jason Zweig wrote in a post on WSJ – “In order to capture the potentially higher returns that stocks can offer, you have to reconcile yourself to the certainty of horrifying short-term losses. If you can’t do that, you shouldn’t be in stocks—and shouldn’t feel any shame about it, either.”

6. Is this an opportunity to buy more stocks? If you have identified businesses that have great potential, according to your analysis, to be wealth compounders, then yes! Such market falls will look like tiny blips over a 10-year period. Don’t interrupt the compounding unless there is a question about the quality of the compounding machine i.e., the underlying business and/or its management.

But here is a caveat – If you think this a time to be greedy because everybody seems to be panicking, then ask yourself whether your greed is driven by your confidence in rational analysis of the business, or is it actually a manifestation of underlying fear, the fear of missing out? Is this really an opportunity or just a distraction?

Don’t forget, short term market fluctuations are severe distractions for our awareness about long term gains.

The few questions you must ask yourself are:

Would this fall impact long term cash flows of the businesses I own?

Would this fall impact the very foundations of these businesses?

Have I invested using borrowed money?

Have I invested in stocks based on tips, as I know nothing about the underlying businesses?

Would I need the money I’ve invested in stocks over the next 1-3 years?

If the answer to all the above questions is ‘no’, then there is no reason for you to panic. Sit back and relax.

7. So what should I do? I want a final answer. When you have no move, my friend, you do not move. You do nothing! Sit tight and read a good book.

On the other hand, if you have a well-thought-out move on how to deal with this situation, then move! But first, please move and switch off that business channel. Don’t let the experts’ running commentary fool you into thinking that they can help you identify (especially using charts) some exact entry point at which you can know you’re buying back into stocks at a bargain level. The future is uncertain, and no chart or predication can add any certainty to it.

In all, act wisely and never accept anything at face value. And do not indulge in spreading the market crash panic and rumours further. As the Jewish proverb goes – “What you don’t see with your eyes, don’t witness with your mouth.”

8. All this sounds soothing, but I remain unnerved. What do you suggest I should do? As I said, don’t worry and don’t act in haste.

And please remember, as always, this too shall pass!

9. Should I shift some money to gold? Heard it’s an insurance against bad times. Being an Indian, I look at gold more from emotional and traditional reasons. You are right that it acts as insurance in times when other assets are cracking. But you don’t overdo on insurance, do you?

I would not have more than 10% of my portfolio in gold, and especially in case I need to gift it to my daughter in the future. I just do not think more than that is necessary. It does not produce the cash flows, plus its price depends on the greater fool theory. But does it need to be 15% of your portfolio? No, that is too much. I think you are better off owning stocks for the long run.

10. By the way, my portfolio manager just gave me some good news. I made a profit of 40% last year, and now my portfolio is down 30%…so I am still net-net 10% in profit. That’s comforting, isn’t it? Fire your portfolio manager! 100 growing to 140 and then falling by 30% doesn’t become 110. It becomes, hold your breath, 98. So, I’m sorry, but you are -2% down!

11. Oh my God! Well, let me finally confess something. I recently doubled down on stocks and bought a lot based on my manager’s and friend’s advice. They recommended some beaten down businesses in the NBFC space, though I don’t really understand how that business works. Anyways, now these stocks are substantially lower in prices now. What should I do of them? Please take my advice here. Sell all your stocks, even if in a loss, and move completely out of the stock market. It is not a place for you. Come back only when you are wiser about your investments, know where you are putting your money, and are willing to do your own homework before investing your hard-earned money.

12. What stocks you are buying? Short answer – Please spare me!

Long answer – See I told you, the stock market is not a place for you. You will ask for my tips, and God forbid, I give you some, you will blindly invest in them. Then, when those stocks fall and you lose money, you will abuse me and tell me what a fool I am.

So, let me tell you upfront that I am a fool with no good stock tips to offer. Plus, I have been wrong many times in the past. As Jesse Livermore is supposed to have said – “Tips! How people want tips! They crave not only to get them but to give them. There is greed involved, and vanity. It is very amusing, at times, to watch really intelligent people fish for them. And the tip-giver need not hesitate about the quality, for the tip-seeker is not really after good tips, but after any tip. If it makes good, fine! If it doesn’t, better luck with the next.

“It has always seemed to me the height of damfoolishness to trade on tips.

“Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin. First of all you have no idea what position that tipper is in. He may not even hold the stock he is recommending. Even if he is, you have no idea when he will unload his lot. Suppose he is selling his stock to you. Then you would be forced to dump it to someone else for a higher price.”

Got it? No? So again, please spare me!

The post Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered appeared first on Safal Niveshak.

Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered published first on https://mbploans.tumblr.com/

[sunshineweb]

Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered

Here is my attempt to answers a few key questions I have received from Safal Niveshak readers on the current turmoil in the stock market.

You won’t find perfect answers below, but this is just my attempt to help you get over your fears, which may otherwise lead you to act in haste, which can cause some damage to your process of long term wealth creation.

Let’s start right here.

1. Why is the market crashing? It hasn’t crashed…so far! The BSE-Sensex is down just 6% from its peak this year. BSE-Smallcap is down 14%. BSE-Midcap is down 11%. This isn’t a crash!

If you think it is, you maybe be suffering from ‘denominator blindness’, which is the tendency to focus on the absolute number then the percentage decline. Or you just seem to have been spoilt by rising markets over the past few years and were not investing in 2008 when the last real crash happened. That was painful for people who experienced it with their money (and not just their eyes and ears). We have not seen anything like that since then.

Okay, while I see that since their record highs in late 2018, the midcap and smallcap indices are down around 25% and 35% respective (which unofficially may be termed a bear market in such stocks), most high-quality small and midcap stocks still trade around fair to rich valuations.

We also need to understand that the stock market moves in cycles, and thus fluctuations are inevitable. Like you enjoyed the upcycle for a long time till it turned down last year, you need to happy accept the current part of the cycle too.

Remember what the Bhagavad Gita says – the very texture of life is of duality – pain and pleasure, success and defeat, birth, and death. Investing, with its bull and bear markets, cannot get away from such duality.

You may hold on to the hope that you would isolate your gains, take them home, and throw your losses out. This has been the hope of every ambitious investor, but up to this day no one has succeeded. Anyone who goes after gains (pleasure) must not complain when he comes across losses (pain). Markets serve this reminder frequently, and we must accept this.

2. Ok, not a crash. Why is the market falling? If you go by the news, people are talking about poor budget, FII outflows, domestic slowdown, poor corporate results, P/E derating, poor monsoons, higher taxes on the rich, bad loans, cheating managements, fragile financial system, etc. But the reality is far more complicated I believe. It’s a mix of all these factors and some more.

My best guess for why the market is falling is that that (more) people are selling more stocks than they are buying. And this seems because there are more people with less stomach to withstand such temporary setbacks.

3. Are we headed to another 2008 like situation? Ah, whether this situation is like 2008 is impossible to predict. You may be hearing some predictions on business television, but then as I mentioned, predicting is futile and I am not an expert in it.

All I can say is whether this turns out to be like 2008 or not is unknown. But it seems that things could remain difficult for some time to come…and can get more difficult if you continue to watch and read those headlines in business media that has a habit of taking things out of proportions.

So, if you wish to curtail your worries, first please stop watching/reading such media. That will give you ample time and sense to think calmly and wisely through this situation.

After the latest decline, stocks are a little cheaper than they were before it all began. But they could get a lot cheaper still before this is over.

4. Oh, so you are saying the market is still risky? First, you must learn to differentiate between ‘risk’ and ‘uncertainty.’

Risk is when we don’t know what is going to happen next, but we know the probability of various outcomes from that event. Rolling dice is an example.

Real risks in investing are that of losing money, and missing opportunities. Sadly, we ignore the first risk when stock prices are rising, and the second risk when they are falling.

Uncertainty, on the other hand, is when we don’t know what is going to happen next, and neither do we know the probability of various outcomes from that event. Genuine uncertainty occurs in complex systems, where lots of actors interact over time – the economy and stock market are examples.

Real opportunities for profit only exist in the face of uncertainty, like something we have now. Which means that if we want to invest for success, we not only have to deal with uncertainty, we must seek it out, and then adapt to it.

5. Can’t help…I am still worried! Should I sell and cash out before the market falls further? Investing is very personal, so there is no single advice that would apply to all. But just understand this that if you are sure of your job (cash flows) for the next few years, you have a monthly surplus, and your goals are far away (say, beyond ten years), just continue investing.

If you are becoming agitated with such a correction (not crash!), then you must be worried. In fact, you must seriously reconsider your decision to be in direct equities.

Remember what George Goodman aka Adam Smith once said – “If you don��t know who you are, [stock market] is an expensive place to find out.”

A long-term view requires an ability to stomach extreme short-term market volatility. If you can’t do that, you may want to move your money to other instruments like bank fixed deposits and liquid/debt funds.

Jason Zweig wrote in a post on WSJ – “In order to capture the potentially higher returns that stocks can offer, you have to reconcile yourself to the certainty of horrifying short-term losses. If you can’t do that, you shouldn’t be in stocks—and shouldn’t feel any shame about it, either.”

6. Is this an opportunity to buy more stocks? If you have identified businesses that have great potential, according to your analysis, to be wealth compounders, then yes! Such market falls will look like tiny blips over a 10-year period. Don’t interrupt the compounding unless there is a question about the quality of the compounding machine i.e., the underlying business and/or its management.

But here is a caveat – If you think this a time to be greedy because everybody seems to be panicking, then ask yourself whether your greed is driven by your confidence in rational analysis of the business, or is it actually a manifestation of underlying fear, the fear of missing out? Is this really an opportunity or just a distraction?

Don’t forget, short term market fluctuations are severe distractions for our awareness about long term gains.

The few questions you must ask yourself are:

Would this fall impact long term cash flows of the businesses I own?

Would this fall impact the very foundations of these businesses?

Have I invested using borrowed money?

Have I invested in stocks based on tips, as I know nothing about the underlying businesses?

Would I need the money I’ve invested in stocks over the next 1-3 years?

If the answer to all the above questions is ‘no’, then there is no reason for you to panic. Sit back and relax.

7. So what should I do? I want a final answer. When you have no move, my friend, you do not move. You do nothing! Sit tight and read a good book.

On the other hand, if you have a well-thought-out move on how to deal with this situation, then move! But first, please move and switch off that business channel. Don’t let the experts’ running commentary fool you into thinking that they can help you identify (especially using charts) some exact entry point at which you can know you’re buying back into stocks at a bargain level. The future is uncertain, and no chart or predication can add any certainty to it.

In all, act wisely and never accept anything at face value. And do not indulge in spreading the market crash panic and rumours further. As the Jewish proverb goes – “What you don’t see with your eyes, don’t witness with your mouth.”

8. All this sounds soothing, but I remain unnerved. What do you suggest I should do? As I said, don’t worry and don’t act in haste.

And please remember, as always, this too shall pass!

9. Should I shift some money to gold? Heard it’s an insurance against bad times. Being an Indian, I look at gold more from emotional and traditional reasons. You are right that it acts as insurance in times when other assets are cracking. But you don’t overdo on insurance, do you?

I would not have more than 10% of my portfolio in gold, and especially in case I need to gift it to my daughter in the future. I just do not think more than that is necessary. It does not produce the cash flows, plus its price depends on the greater fool theory. But does it need to be 15% of your portfolio? No, that is too much. I think you are better off owning stocks for the long run.

10. By the way, my portfolio manager just gave me some good news. I made a profit of 40% last year, and now my portfolio is down 30%…so I am still net-net 10% in profit. That’s comforting, isn’t it? Fire your portfolio manager! 100 growing to 140 and then falling by 30% doesn’t become 110. It becomes, hold your breath, 98. So, I’m sorry, but you are -2% down!

11. Oh my God! Well, let me finally confess something. I recently doubled down on stocks and bought a lot based on my manager’s and friend’s advice. They recommended some beaten down businesses in the NBFC space, though I don’t really understand how that business works. Anyways, now these stocks are substantially lower in prices now. What should I do of them? Please take my advice here. Sell all your stocks, even if in a loss, and move completely out of the stock market. It is not a place for you. Come back only when you are wiser about your investments, know where you are putting your money, and are willing to do your own homework before investing your hard-earned money.

12. What stocks you are buying? Short answer – Please spare me!

Long answer – See I told you, the stock market is not a place for you. You will ask for my tips, and God forbid, I give you some, you will blindly invest in them. Then, when those stocks fall and you lose money, you will abuse me and tell me what a fool I am.

So, let me tell you upfront that I am a fool with no good stock tips to offer. Plus, I have been wrong many times in the past. As Jesse Livermore is supposed to have said – “Tips! How people want tips! They crave not only to get them but to give them. There is greed involved, and vanity. It is very amusing, at times, to watch really intelligent people fish for them. And the tip-giver need not hesitate about the quality, for the tip-seeker is not really after good tips, but after any tip. If it makes good, fine! If it doesn’t, better luck with the next.

“It has always seemed to me the height of damfoolishness to trade on tips.

“Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin. First of all you have no idea what position that tipper is in. He may not even hold the stock he is recommending. Even if he is, you have no idea when he will unload his lot. Suppose he is selling his stock to you. Then you would be forced to dump it to someone else for a higher price.”

Got it? No? So again, please spare me!

The post Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered appeared first on Safal Niveshak.

Stock Market Crisis: Your Big Questions…Answered published first on https://mbploans.tumblr.com/