#i love g3 as much as the next guy but i just have this burning hatred for the new clawdeen DKSNSJSNDN

[y0ur-l0c4l-qu33r]

my thoughts on the g1 vs g3 clawdeen, essentially

still weird that the werewolves dont have tails though

[dragonoffantasyandreality]

Kamen Rider Thunderbirds Chapter 3 (Bit 5 End)

Prologue, Bit 1, Bit 2 Updated, Bit 3, Bit 4 

Finaaaly! I finished Chapter 3! :D

Big thank you for @janetm74 for the beta read, thank you @myladykayo for helping me through the story. Tagging @willow-salix, @katblu42, @gumnut-logic and @dreamycloud)

So let’s end this chapter, right? :)

-0-0-0-

“So you are saying that you’ve been attacked by some unknown monsters?” Jeff asked, his fingers gripping the paper. The bandaged up boys nodded.

“Yeah. And we believed it was a set up." Virgil pointed out.

"It seemed like deliberate sabotage by those… things, so we came in and fell into their trap." Scott theorized. He continued explaining: in fact, the way the fires started was suspicious, the flames appeared in random parts of the building, according to the recent investigations. And according to the testimonies of the rescuees who were trapped underground, the humanoid fire-monsters appeared out of nowhere and they are the ones who started the whole fires, and then… they were simply waiting. The field commander finished that the poor fellas acted as bait for the monsters to finish him and his brothers off.

"Long story short: they were after our heads apparently." Gordon concluded.

Their father had a look of extreme concern. To think those threats with impossible yet fantastic power to bring down a building were after his sons was very alarming and pose a threat to their lives and security. Here he thought that time where they had to save the world from a mind-controlling alien sphere was a close call!

"Thank heavens the Kamen Riders came and saved us!" Alan chirped, his ocean eyes sparkled like stars with memories.

"Yes. You guys are very lucky. And those rescuees as well." Agreed Jeff, "However, we don’t know if we could trust those bug-eyed warriors.”

“But dad! They saved us!” Argued the youngster, “They saved us from these creatures! I am pretty sure they are our allies! Friends even!”

"Alan! We don't even know who they are!" Pointed out Gordon.

The young blonde crossed his arms and gave the most dramatic pout. Jeff sighed, gently shaking his head with a slight sympathetic smile, “They may be on our side now, but we still don’t know what their intentions are. Especially when they got those… other-worldly powers. So take their alliance with caution.” he said sternly.

The brothers nodded in agreement, including Alan who simply cocked his head to the side. They did tell John about the whole thing, in which the middle brother had mixed feelings. Concerned, relieved and interested. But mostly worried.

After the debrief, the atmosphere was a lingering silent worry.

“Hey kiddo, don’t be upset.” Gordon smiled optimistically.

“You sure?” Huffed his youngest brother.

“Yeah. As much as I am suspicious about them, I am also curious.” his innocent smile turned into a cheeky smirk.

Alan’s grumpy face slowly transformed into that of an excited gremlin that the redhead knew and loved, “Alright! How about we go talk to Brains? See what he thinks of this rescue.”

Gordon grinned, “Right behind ya, Sprout!”

And soon enough, the terrible two vanished through the door of the lounge, their excited feet echoed through the halls.

“What do you think of the Kamen Riders, Scott?” asked Virgil, placing a gentle hand on his older brother’s shoulder. 

Scott shrugged, “I don’t know.” He was mostly worried about those monsters. Those… things. What are they after? Why do they want International Rescue dead? Of course it was only one time, but what if they do it again? He was beginning to feel dread. Being possessed by an alien was bad enough, but almost getting burned alive by monstrous animal-headed gladiators with powers to control fire was out of the question!

“You know, I do have a hunch that our bug-eyed acquaintances are on our side.” admitted Virgil, “But, I also have a feeling that we’ll meet them again, considering the circumstances.”

Scott looked back at his brother. Sky blue meets earthly brown. There was a silent conversation. An understanding. And then a nod from the eldest brother. They sat there in compassionate silence.

The quiet must’ve been killing his brother, because all of the sudden the mechanic asked, “Say, would you like to play the piano again?”

“Why’s that?” Scott raised a brow.

“My fingers are sore from fixing the Mole in a rush back there.” Virgil smiled with a little embarrassment, as he revealed his bandaged hands.

Scott gently tapped his brother’s shoulder with a chuckle. He got up from the couch and walked over to Virgil’s beloved white piano. He sat on the stool once more, opened the lid and stretched his fingers, “What should I play?” 

“Anything, I don’t mind.” His musical brother shrugged, standing beside him.

As Scott thought which song to play, his mind drifted back to the moment when he looked into the eyes of the golden Rider. It seemed to him that there was something warm behind those bug-eyes… something human. Scott wondered if there's a sensitive soul behind that mask.

Maybe it was just in his mind, maybe it was not true, but it made him relax. Pressing the keys, he began playing a familiar, jazzy beat as he remembered that moment. After a few repeats of the rhyme, he went to the main part of the song.

“Ah, my favorite! Take Five!" Jeff exclaimed, "Just like you guys.” he chuckled.

Scott smiled at his father as a response. There were some remnants of his stress, but it didn't bother him as much as he was in the morning. Jeff gave him a relieved nod before continuing doing paperwork, quietly humming and tapping his foot to the beat. Virgil smiled widely at his brother before humming as well and snapping his fingers along with the melody of the immortal piece of Paul Desmond.

Scott jumped into improvising like he was here to woo the girls at a party. As he was playing, he thought back of their victory. And his tension melted away. Outside the villa, the soothing music echoed through the beautiful nature of the island and into the night sky.

-0-0-0-

The moon shone in the night sky and the cold was a constant companion. The sounds of distant cars driving through the streets could be heard from the top of the skyscrapers. On one of them stood four figures, taking their time enjoying the view from above.

The Kamen Riders were resting after the heated fight. Gills was leaning on a wall next to the entrance, between his legs lay his loyal dog. G3-X was finishing writing a report of the fight on his custom laptop. Kuuga was laying on top of the entrance, admiring the stars. And Agito was standing near the railing, staring into the lights of the city.

"Oi, Agito!" called Kuuga all of a sudden. The golden Rider turned to his best friend.

"Nando(What is it)?" asked Agito.

"Why wouldn’t you come up here and watch the stars?” suggested the red Rider, "It's beautiful up there."

"How can you see stars from here?" objected G3-X, "Ya can't see Shiitake with all those slagging city lights!"

"They can see them through their visors," scoffed Gills, making the robocop Rider whistle a sound of realization before turning back to his computer. 

Raider looked up and tilted his head as if trying to see them, but after a few moments he gave up as he put his canine head back to the ground.

Agito had taken a moment to stare at the city, then moved towards the entrance, climbed and sat next to Kuuga.

"Not too cold buddy?” the red Rider asked, only to receive a shake of the head from his golden companion. The two took a moment to appreciate the stars in the cold night sky. Few stars faintly glowed in the dark sky.

"Man, can't believe we just met with International Rescue in person!" excitedly said Kuuga, "I gotta say, they are quite tough guys, ne? Especially Noodle, he looks quite young!"

"Noodle?" asked the golden rider in confusion.

"The blond kid! The one I saved from falling into a ravine and returned the gun to?" Kuuga sensed Agito raising an eyebrow that cannot be seen from the cover of his mask. "We should give them nicknames. To… you know, to know who's who we're talking about?" He explained, shrugging.

A sparkle of mirth could be faintly seen behind the faceted eyes of his friend, a warm smile could be felt radiating from his breath. "Sure...But why the blond kid 'Noodle'?"

"Because his blonde hair reminded me of noodles. And to be honest, 'Noodle' sounds kawaii~! Don’t you think he looks kawaii, ne?” A big grin was radiating from behind the mask of the red Rider. Agito laughed wholeheartedly. Kuuga continued, "The auburn hair guy; I think we'll call him 'Kuma'! He looks so serious, strong and tough, like a bear! Remind me of someone…"

The golden Rider laughed again as he nodded. "So um… shall we call the leader 'Sky Eyes'?"

Kuuga rubbed his silver chin for a bit, "Hmm…the one who pilots that big-hyper-speedy-rocket-jet thingy? Why's that?" he asked.

"Because… his eyes reminded me of the sky...” The red Rider saw the sparkling human eyes behind Agito’s red bug-like lens. Kuuga nodded, agreeing that the name was well suited for the blue sashed commander.

"What about the redhead guy? What should we call him?" asked G3-X as he looked up at the two Riders, seemingly curious.

"Clownfish..." Gills dropped the answer. There was an awkward pause. "He smelled fishy..." He deadpanned. Everyone laughed, acknowledging his typical 'I don't care, deal with it' attitude as they accepted his answer.

"Noodle, Kuma, Sky Eyes and Clownfish. Sounds good for our mystery gang of rescuers!" Kuuga clapped and rubbed his hands excitingly

Agito chuckled softly before looking back at the stars once more. The more he stared at the little faint glistening lights, the more the made him think of sky… sky eyes… the man whose eyes were always drawn to the sky.

He felt a warm feeling as he remembered those cobalt irises. He wondered why he felt like that. He barely knows that man, let alone the fact that International Rescue seemed to keep themselves secret. Maybe he'll never know. But one thing for sure, they'll cross paths again. Because of those things...

Those kaijins… they were new. He had never seen them before. And they are as aggressive and dangerous as disasters. Agito… Yuuki sensed that whatever they were, they seemed to be after International Rescue. But for what? And why?

The answer will remain unknown, for now...

-tbc-

[5917]

All even numbers on that 'distract' ask meme you just reblogged please!

Sorry, sorry! This 2+ months late and I’m really sorry. Not having internet for my laptop really sucks and I finally decided to do this on my iPod. (and work has been tiring. it’s my first job so I’m still adjusting) Anyway, here you are! And thank you for asking!!!

2: Think of the last person who hurt you; do you forgive them?

I can’t really think of the last person who hurt me but sure, I forgive them. Oh, but maybe it was my grandma when she told me my writing was pointless and a waste of time? Hmmm, well I still forgive her then

4: What’s something you really want right now?

Chocolate, cold weather, a smart phone, to be able to visit my dad in the hospital, to move back to Europe, concentration to finish editing G3 and write a query letter (a lot of things but these are the most important ones)

6: Do you like the beach?

Yes! I love it!

8: What’s the background on your cell?

On my phone it’s one of those generic ones that’s already loaded. My iPod had one of @eicinic’s pictures

10: Do you like your phone?

It’s an old model flip phone so absolutely not :)

12: Who was the last person whose phone number you added to your contacts?

On my iPod it was my neighbor’s and on my phone, I don’t remember. My sister added a friend and Wells Fargo to each device respectfully more recently though

14: Which hurts the most, physical or emotional pain?

Personally I think emotional cause sometimes physical pain can feel nice but emotional pain never feels nice

16: Are you tired?

No

18: Are they a relative?

My first phone contact is not my relative

20: When did you last talk to the last person you shared a kiss with?

Never kissed anyone

22: Would you kiss the last person you kissed again?

Never kissed anyone

24: Is there a certain quote you live by?

Not really

26: Do you have any tattoos?

Not yet

28: Next time you will kiss someone on the lips?

I don’t know

30: Think to the last person you kissed, have you ever kissed them on a couch?

Never kissed anyone

32: Do you have a friend of the opposite sex you can talk to?

Yes? We haven’t talked in a while so I’m not really sure

34: Has anyone ever told you you have pretty eyes?

Nope

36: Were you single on Valentines Day?

Yup

38: What do your friends call you?

Nyx. I use to have a nickname from my given name and my Spanish side of the family calls me Nena

40: Have you ever cried over a text?

Mmm, I don’t think so

42: What is it from?

I have many so I don’t know which one my last one is from but they’re all from work. My largest though, is ok the back of my ankle and is about the size of ¼ of a dollar bill. I got it when a cart ran into the back of my leg and it’s been there for a couple weeks now :P

44: Who was the last person you were on the phone with?

My grandma

46: Do you wear hats if your having a bad hair day?

Nope, just go with a bun

48: Do you make supper for your family?

Not usually

50: Top 3 web-pages?

Google drive, ao3, and twitter in no particular order

52: Does anything on your body hurt?

My muscles a tiny bit and I’ve got a few bruisers that hurt when I poke them

54: What was the last beverage you spilled on yourself?

Water I think

56: What do you usually do first in the morning?

Check the time and date in my iPod

58: Think back to January 2007, were you single?

Always been single so yes

60: When’s the next time you will give someone a BIG hug?

Maybe in April if I see my dad again?

62: When will be the next time you text someone?

I have no idea

64: What were you doing at 8 this morning.

I think��I was ready some Harry Potter fics (I’ve been obsessed the past months) or making tea

66: Is there one person in your life that can always make you smile?

My sister and dad and usually friends

68: What was your last thought before you went to bed last night?

I was extremely tired and the light was bothering me?

70: How many windows are open on your computer?

5

72: What is your ringtone?

Just Guitar for contacts and Classic Bell for unknown numbers

74: Where is your Mum right now?

Died

76: Have you held hands with somebody in the past three days?

I don’t think so, maybe my dad or sister? (I don’t really know people)

78: Do you remember who you had a crush on in year 7?

I don’t think I had a crush on anyone in grade 7

80: Have you ever fallen asleep in someones arms?

As a baby but otherwise I don’t think so. I fell asleep on someone’s lap once

82: Has anyone seen you in your underwear in the last 3 days?

Myself

84: You’re drunk and yelling at hot guys/girls out of your car window, you’re with?

I don’t think I’ll ever be drunk but I’m guessing my sister

86: What was the most eventful thing that happened last time you went to see a movie?

Ugh, I don’t remember the last time I went to the movies (I’ll be going on Tuesday though). Umm, maybe I was almost late? Eventful things don’t happen at the movies to me

88: If someone gave you $1,000 to burn a butterfly over a candle, would you?

Is it dead?

90: Have you ever trusted someone too much?

Mmmm, I think so. Does that time in 5th grade when I told my friends my crush on a boy and they threatened to tell him if I didn’t do what they wanted count?

92: Do you get along with girls?

I guess. I think so.

94: Does sex mean love?

No

96: Have you ever kissed anyone with a lip ring?

Never kissed anyone so nope

98: Everybody has somebody that makes them happy, do you?

Not really, I don’t think so. I mean people in general who interact with me and do something funny or pleasant or are nice make me happy but no, not someone who just makes me happy by being right there

100: Who was the last person that you pinky promise?

I don’t actually know but probably my sister…or my dad?

[thefastlanehandicapping]

Derby Analysis and Picks

My favorite Derby moment of all time came a few years back when my wife and I watched the big race at The Borgata Hotel in Atlantic City.  My detailed analysis and selections were trashed by a race that found a longshot winner and even longer shots hitting the board in the Exotic wagers.  As we watched the winning ticket prices flash onto the big screen, a random guy standing next to me leans over with his ticket in hand and asks me, “Did I win?”  It was a Superfecta ticket with all the right numbers in place.  I turned to the screen to verify.  Turned back to the ticket.  Now wide-eyed, turned back to the screen to re-verify, then back to the curious man holding a winning Superfecta ticket.  I inform, “Dude, you just won a lot of money.”  “Really?” he asks, “How much?”  I inform, “$30,000.”  He almost fainted.  Upon his revival I had to inquire... “Excuse me, but I have to ask, I have been handicapping horse races my entire life.  I spent hours reviewing this race.  I can’t imagine anyone picking the four horses you picked in the exact correct order.  What system did you use to select these horses in this race?”  He responded... “I bet the date of my Grandson’s birthday.  He was born last week.” 

That, my friends, defines handicapping the Kentucky Derby.  This is an almost impossible race to handicap for many reasons.  Traditional handicapping rules don’t really apply because none of the 20 horses in the Derby have ever run under similar conditions.  Two most important:  1.  No horse has been in a race against 19 others with 150,000 people screaming from call to the post to finish; and  2.  No horse has yet to run the long distance of 1 1/4 miles.  Without a sample size of those conditions, it is impossible to know how any horse will respond when so tested.  

Thus, I tell friends, best to bet your favorite name, or number, or silk design or, yes, the date of your grandson’s birthday.  Watching the race is just as fun and you could end up winning $30,000!

Okay, having said all that.  I can’t help but to do what fans of the game like to do... handicap the Kentucky Derby.  Because before the race, you can sound like a genus, and then upon loss, use all the excuses necessary to explain why the selection would have won, but for...

So here goes.  

In handicapping the Derby I use a combination of analytics, pedigree and past performances.  I try to predict how the race will be run by each of the horses against the others in the field and settle on a predicted pace of the race to determine which horses will have the best chance to win and/or finish in the money.  I try to determine if there is a super-horse in the field (aka Justify or American Pharoah).  I try to avoid heavy favorites and look for a few longshots to complete my Exotic bets, such as exactas, trifectas and superfectas.  .  

There are a couple of preliminary factors to consider in analyzing this race... 1.  Upon review of the 20-horse field and their past performances, I do not see the early pace of the race to be extraordinarily fast.  That is an important factor as we begin the handicapping process.  There are a few horses which like to run in front, perhaps hoping to wire the field, as explained below, but unlike past Derbys, there is not a group of super-fast frontrunners that will contest each other for the early lead, setting blazing early fractions and , in turn burning each other out, giving a better chance to the stretch-runners; 2. The favorite Omaha Beach being scratched allows for a race that is wide open.  An argument can be made for almost all of the entrees to win.  Thus, back to the grandson’s birthday!

Here are my comments on the field:

1.  WAR OF WILL  15-1

No horse since 1986 has won the Derby from the #1 post position.  This colt won three races in a row once current jockey Tyler Gaffalione got the mounts, including two G2 stake races (by comparison, the Derby is G1).  He had a bad start in his last race in which he was the favorite, so I discount that race from consideration.  Bred to like the distance, especially on the dam side. Likes to run just off the led and take over around the final turn.  Could duplicate that effort here, especially without a fast pace and if he gets out of the gate well.  My concern is his past speed ratings have not measured up to some others in the field and he has not tested against the top level of horses as he will find here.  

2.  TAX  20-1

Started his career as a maiden claimer at Churchill Downs and was claimed for $50K last October.  Great buy ‘cause he has won $300K since.  Since that claim the new ownership group under trainer Danny Gargan has run competitively in three stake races (G2 and G3), winning the G3 Withers against mediocre competition.  Lost to TACITUS  by a length last time out.  His speed ratings have been consistently outstanding.  Similar to 1-WAR OF WILL, likes to run close to the lead.  Another horse that can stay close till the end as his breeding suggests he can handle the distance.  

3.  BY MY STANDARDS  15-1

Here’s a horse that would not have qualified to run in the Derby except for an unexpected longshot victory in the Louisiana Derby at 23-1, fresh off a maiden special weights win.  He improved his average speed rating that day by more than 10% and took advantage of favorite 1-WAR OF WILL’s flub in that race out of the gate.  His breeding says this race is too long, especially on the dam side. Likes to run mid-pack and kick it higher gear down the stretch.  Another upset at this long distance?  I am not convinced.  

4.  GRAY MAGICIAN  50-1

This horse probably should not have qualified for the Derby.  Similar to 3-BY MY STANDARDS, gets in because of a decent finish in recent stakes race.  Here, in Dubai against a relatively week field.  Interesting, because he likes to run in front and, if I was his trainer, I would let it fly and see what happens.  I suspect he collapses down the stretch because of lack of talent and pedigree.  

5.  IMPROBABLE  5-1

One of three outstanding horses trained by super-trainer Bob Baffert seeking his 6th Derby victory.  This one may end up as the race time favorite.  And for good reason.  A $200K yearling purchase, he won his first three starts as a two-year old with higher speed ratings each time out, including a G1 win in December.  Looked like a super-horse wannabe at two years old.  Not so much at three.  His two starts in 2019 came with second place finishes in a G2 and G1 race, the last race losing to Omaha Beach in the G1 Arkansas Derby in the slop.  Interesting, change of jockeys to Irad Ortiz and now removing blinkers after trying them last race.  My concern about this favorite is his second place finish to 18-LONG RANGE TODDY.  Had the lead that day, and let the longshot slip past.  Breeding on sire side is suspect, although breeding on dam side says he can handle the distance. I do like his final running quarters in last two races, despite second place finishes.  Have to keep him in the mix because of Baffert + he is always there at that end.

6.  VEKOMA  15-1

While this horse has won three of four races (G2 and G3), I sense there was a favorable track bias in each which helped.  Credit trainer George Weaver for race placement.  Has good past speed ratings and has one of the best all time jockeys, Javier Castellano.  He will be at or near the lead from the onset. His pedigree is not built for this distance, so my concern is that while he will be competitive from the start, he will not have the energy to finish the job with the threat he falls out of the money completely.  

7.  MAXIMUM SECURITY  8-1

So compelling at many levels.  First, he is undefeated winning 4 for 4, including the G1 Florida Derby, defeating handily competitors 20-BODEXPRESS and 10-CUTTING HUMOR.  Trained by local trainer Jason Servis (brother of Smarty Jones trainer John Servis).  Likes to run in front from the get-go and will undoubtedly try to win the race wire to wire.  Can he?  I am betting against it.  Great story because this horse actually started his career as a two-year old in a $16,000 maiden claimer (where was I on that day??) and has since won $600K.  Can a racehorse go from $16K claimer to Kentucky Derby winner?  In my dreams, yes.  But hard pressed to believe that will happen here especially with suspect distance breeding on his sire side.  

8.  TACITUS  8-1

I love horses bred from the champion sire Tapit.  They are big and strong and built for the hustle and bustle of the 20-horse Derby field.  This one is trained by the terrific Bill Mott (although 0-8 in prior Derbys) and ridden by exceptional jockey Jose Ortiz.  Four prior races, three wins, including a terrific win in the G2 Wood Memorial, over 2-TAX and 11-HAIKAL.  His speed rating that day is the highest of any others.  Likes to run mid-pack and in past races has shown the ability to kick it up down the stretch.  Seems to be perfectly situated to run a big race.  

9.  PLUS QUE PARFAIT  30-1

Jackpot for this horse in Dubai.  An also ran in prior G2 and G3 stakes (finished 13th and 6th respectively against 1-WAR OF WILL), he won the $2.5 Million Dubai race against mediocre competition (see 4-GRAY MAGICIAN).  Seems overmatched against these horses on U.S. soil.  

10.  CUTTING HUMOR  30-1

One of two horses in this race trained by Hall of Fame trainer and two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher.  This one was a $400K yearling purchase, so great anticipation early on.  However, as racing unfolded, it was clear that this colt was not Pletcher’s best, by any stretch.  In fact his regular jockey John Velasquez has decided to ride another horse 13-CODE OF HONOR.  Perhaps for good reason.  This Pletcher horse won a G3, but speed ratings are not extremely impressive.  Distance breeding on sire side is suspect.  Likes to run mid-pack and has had some good late kick speed down the stretch.  May squeeze in for Exotics, passing tiring horses toward the finish.  

11.  HAIKAL  30-1

Another colt who has some late kick, but past history that makes him suspect as having the ability to win the race.  He was four lengths back of 8-TACITUS in the Wood Memorial G2, although he made up 10 lengths from his slow start at the first quarter and, arguably, made up that distance because of a blistering early pace in that race.  That was this horse’s first and only start at a distance in excess of a mile.  Distance breeding is fair.  Again, may pass tiring horses down the stretch if he has the stamina to survive 1 1/4 miles.  

12.  OMAHA BEACH  SCRATCHED

13.  CODE OF HONOR  12-1

If only this horse had better speed ratings in prior races, he would be a longshot special.  Hall of Fame connections of trainer Shug McGaughey and jockey John Velasquez make this horse attractive for that reason alone.  Noting that Velasquez chose to ride this horse in favor any of the Pletcher trained horses makes it even more intriguing.  Just that his past races don’t give much optimism that he can beat this field of top line runners.  His running style is to come from behind.  Concern is that he will dig too deep a hole and not have that special talent needed to storm to victory down the stretch.  But if any pair can work that magic it would be McGaughey and Velasquez.  

14.  WIN WIN WIN  12-1

Another who likes to run off the pace and kick it in down the stretch.  Much like his neighbor 13-CODE OF HONOR, has not demonstrated the talent to compete for victory with the upper echelon in this race.  Finished second to 6-VEKOMA by three lengths in the G2 Blue Grass stakes.  Finished third to 8-TACITUS in the G2 Tampa Derby.  My greatest concern, is that in these last two races, the only two he has run at a distance in excess of a mile, his final quarter times were not impressive.  Also, his regular jockey, Jose Ortiz, has decided to ride 8-TACITUS.  

15.  MASTER FENCER  50-1

Bred, born and raced in Japan.  First ever Japanese horse in Derby.  Making a 13,000 mile trip for this race.  Difficult circumstances for any horse.  This one shows some talent in Japan, but not eye-popping.  

16.  GAME WINNER  9-2

With the scratch of Omaha Beach, this Baffert-trained colt now stands as the Derby favorite.  For good reason.  Hall of Fame connections of Baffert and jockey Joel Rosario. Broodmare sire of A.P. Indy suggests pedigree stamina to handle the long distance.  He was the two-year old champion horse of the year in 2018, having won all four of his races, including the biggest prize, the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile  Classic.  If he wins the Derby, he will be only the third horse in 34 years to win the Juvenile  Classic and Derby.  Still he entered 2019 as the odds-on Derby favorite.  But things haven’t been as smooth this year.  Two 2019 races, both times going off as the 1-2 favorite to win, two second place finishes.  Buzz kill!  He finished second to Omaha Beach, missing by a nose in the G2 Rebel Stakes.  No shame there.  Then most recently, finished second to the (also) Baffert trained 17-ROADSTER in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.  He actually beat 17-ROADSTER in 2018 by two lengths.  But not this day.  In the Santa Anita Derby, 16-GAME WINNER actually took the lead down the stretch only to get passed by the eventual winner. I remember last year’s Triple Crown winner Justify clocking the field in the Santa Anita Derby as a prep for his Kentucky Derby win.  That sticks with me because I want my Derby win pick to be sharp and ready for the Derby run and I’m not getting that 100% with this favorite.  So, third time a charm or just not as good as 2018?  Not sure.  He certainly has not captured the high speed rating he left off with as a two-year old.  Love him, but hesitating.  

17.  ROADSTER  5-1

Third of three Baffert-trained horses.  This one was a whopping $575K yearling purchase.  He was not disappointed his buyers winning three of four races, including the G1 Santa Anita Derby.  His only loss came last December when he went off as the favorite in a G1 race and lost to 16-GAME WINNER (see above).  Not sure if this horse is getting better (had throat surgery after the December race) or if his stablemate is not, but the tide seems to have turned in his favor.  Here’s a knock... no horse from the 17 post position has ever won the Derby, 0-40.  Also, his regular jockey, Mike Smith, chose to ride Omaha Beach, when that horse was still in the race.  Is that telling?  Expect a strong race with the possibility that this horse is peaking at the right time.  Hard to dismiss any Baffert-trained horse on any day.  

18.  LONG RANGE TODDY  30-1

Has not shown good form, finishing a distant 6th in his last race, G1 Arkansas Derby, drubbed by the likes of Omaha Beach, 5-IMPROBABLE and 20-COUNTRY HOUSE.  Pulled off an upset in the G2 Rebel defeating 5-IMPROBABLE.  Hard to explain that sudden burst of speed, but that unlikely victory made him eligible to run here.  So, why not.  18th post position will be difficult to overcome in this field of seemingly better horses.  

19.  SPINOFF  30-1

Trainer Pletcher’s second horse in the race.  Similar to his other 10-CUTTING HUMOR, jockey John Velasquez chose not to ride this horse as usual in favor of 13-CODE OF HONOR.  This horse has improved in each of his four prior races and his speed rating in the last race, the G2 Louisiana Derby matches with the best.  He finished second in that race to 3-BY MY STANDARDS.  But this will be a very different race for this colt who likes to run with the leaders.  Very difficult for a horse to pop in front from the 19th post position and maintain that effort for 1 1/4 miles.  

20.  COUNTRY HOUSE  30-1

Here is a pure closer who has on occasion shown the ability to fly down the stretch.  Unfortunately, that usually occurs against mediocre company and in races that are very slow in pace.  This race promises to have a slower than usual Derby pace, but still faster than most races.  So, not expecting that condition to elevate this horse, especially starting the race in a far outside post.  At best, I can see this horse sneaking in for some backend Exotics.  

21.  BODEXPRESS  30-1

Last, and perhaps least, is this colt who has the honor of starting from the most outside post in the auxiliary gate.  This horse gets in because Omaha Beach scratched.  He has never won a race and somehow finished second in the G1 Florida Derby at 72-1.  That finish qualified him for the Derby, notwithstanding his winless status.  If a winless horse starting from the 20th post position somehow wins the Kentucky Derby, all handicapping is worthless.  

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Here is how I see the race unfold:

AND THEY’RE OFF...  Rushing to the lead is 1-WAR OF WILL in order to clear trouble of being squeezed along the rail.  Followed quickly by 7-MAXIMUM SECURITY who may quickly vie for the lead heading into the first turn.  Also there should be 4-GRAY MAGICIAN who may seek to pull ahead early in a “Hail Mary” attempt to wire the field.  Struggling to inch into the top group will be outside post-position contenders 19-SPINOFF and 21-BODEXPRESS. 

Tracking the leaders around the first turn and into the backstretch should be 2-TAX, 6-VEKOMA, 16-GAME WINNER, 17-ROADSTER, 18-LONG RANGE TODDY.  The positioning of 16 and 17 is important and may impact the entire outcome.  Meaning that if either horse gets checked behind a mountain of horses, they may have difficulty catching up down the stretch.   

Saving ground behind should be 3-BY MY STANDARDS, 5-IMPROBABLE, 8-TACTIUS and 10-CUTTING HUMOR.  

Trailing the field around the backstretch should be 9-PLUS QUE PARFAIT, 11-HAIKAL, 13-CODE OF HONOR, 14-WIN WIN WIN and 20-COUNTRY HOUSE.  Not sure how the Japanese horse 15-MASTER FENCER will decide to run this race.  

The race takes shape at the top of the stretch.  1-WAR OF WILL hangs tough.  7-MAXIMUM SECURITY begins to give way.  19-SPINOFF struggles to maintain position.  4-GRAY MAGICIAN and 21-BODEXPRESS fade to obscurity.  2-TAX, 16-GAME WINNER, 17-ROADSTER make their move.  Here comes 5-IMPROBABLE and 8-TACITUS.  6-VEKOMA still holds strong, but being inched out by others coming.  3-BY MY STANDARDS, 10-CUTTING HUMOR and 18-LONG RANGE TODDY can’t keep pace.  From the early trailers, 11-HAIKAL, 13-CODE OF HONOR, 20-COUNTRY HOUSE pick up ground.  

AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME... 

1-WAR OF WILL, 2-TAX, 6-VEKOMA and 7-MAXIMUM SECURITY give way.  Too much to sustain in the lead with this field of outstanding horses charging ahead.  Maybe one or more holds to land in the Exotics.  Castellano on 6-VEKOMA has the best chance to find that perfect ride to finish above expectations.  

In the mix should be the Baffert trio, 5-IMPROBABLE, 16-GAME WINNER and 17-ROADSTER, along with the late comers, 13-CODE OF HONOR, 14-WIN WIN WIN and 20-COUNTRY HOUSE, but they don’t have the talent to get past the hard-charging and winner... 8-TACITUS.  

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MY PICKS...

WINNER:  8-TACITUS

SECOND:  5-IMPROBABLE

THIRD:  13-CODE OF HONOR

FOURTH:  16-GAME WINNER

MY BETS...

WIN:  8-TACITUS

EXACTA and TRIFECA BOX:  8-TACITUS/5-IMPROBABLE/13-CODE OF HONOR

TRIFECTA KEYS:  8-TACITUS with 5-IMPROBABLE/ALL

SUPERFECTA BOX:  8-TACITUS/5-IMPROBABLE/13-CODE OF HONOR/16-GAME WINNER

SUPERFECTA KEY:  8-TACITUS with 5-IMPROBABLE/13-CODE OF HONOR/ALL

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WARNING AND REMINDER:  Bet your favorite number, name, silk color and definitely the date of your grandchild’s birth!  Just don’t bet the farm on a race impossible to handicap.  

HAVE FUN!