#i have absolutely made a dent in my savings with the Christmas shopping and now this but after this week im going to live like A NUN until

[six-of-ravens]

update: tv did drop the wifi again, and I JUST SO HAPPENED to check the best buy site in a rage and discover the tv I had been contemplating on Wednesday was now on sale for almost 50% off, making it the cheapest one available by a long shot and actually less than I paid for my current one. so. anyway. i have a new toy to pick up sometime in the next 3 days.

should i have been allowed to make this decision when i woke up less than an hour before and slept so badly? no. could anyone have stopped me? also no. does this mean i have to tell my dad intricate lies because he wants to know every detail of this escapade but will be mad if i tell him i ordered it online bc he's a boomer who doesn't trust online shopping? YUP.

[tentwentyninecompositions]

East Chicago Love Letter

12 DAYS PRIOR

“What time did you say she was flying in?” Myles questions as he continued to clip the ends of the floral arrangement. Dutch Hydrangeas and the Peony flower are Kary’s favorite. So as a small token of his love Enzo put together multiple bouquets for his wife. 

“Uh..should be around 8:30 maybe even nine o’clock. You think these look alright?” Enzo put the first bundle of flowers into an expensive, stained glass vase. He stepped back to get a better look at what he had put together. 

Myles finished off his bundle doing the same as his friend. Together in silence they admired the beautiful flowers that smell like a hint of lavender. Another one of Kary’s favorite things in life. 

“This is the nicest thing I’ve ever seen you do for anybody.” Myles spoke up. He went around to the other side of the kitchen to fish around the refrigerator for a drink. 

“Yeah man I know. I just want this night to go well. I’ve been planning this since her last trip. I know Kary inside and out so I know she’ll love this.” Enzo prides himself in knowing the things his wife loves, hates, and anything in between. “How could she not? I picked every one of these flowers myself, cut ‘em, washed ‘em...the whole nine man.” He chuckled. 

“I don’t doubt you on that at all. Kary is a very lucky woman to have you in her life. I’m always praying for y’all and you know my mama is too.” Myles began to clean up the mess he made in Enzo’s kitchen whilst sipping on his most beloved drink combination. Bourbon and apple juice. 

“Thank you brother, I really appreciate that.” The men returned the kitchen to its original clean state and went about their individual business. 

———  ———-

Later That Evening...

Glancing at the time of his watch Enzo blew out a sharp breath as he put the finishing touches on his anniversary dinner. After Myles left, Enzo spent the remainder of his alone time prepping his home for his wife’s arrival. Kary has been traveling non-stop for work for the past month, striking deals, meeting with designers, hosting events etc. Mrs. Warren has been a very busy woman. Being that today is the couples five year wedding anniversary Enzo thought he would prepare his wife’s favorite dish. That being chicken marsala in a Sherry cream sauce and brown butter risotto. He bought her three floral arrangements with each bundle having the stems wrapped in one hundred dollar bills. 

In addition to the flowers, Enzo splurged on several designer fragrance bottles, the finest brands of mascara and lipstick tubes in all of Kary’s favorite shades. The receipts from his shopping spree didn’t put the slightest dent in his bank account. When it boils down to love and showing his appreciation for his woman, Enzo will go above and beyond. 

ENZO 

Fastening the second button from the top on my shirt I picked up my brush to run over my hair for the fifth time. I don’t know why I feel so nervous to see my wife. Maybe it’s because she’s been gone for over four weeks and my anticipation has reached its peak. Coming home after a long day's work to go to bed alone put me in a funk for the first two weeks of Kary’s absence. 

Around the week three day two mark, I shook the chip off my shoulder and went back to my old routine. Five a.m., I go on my three mile run. Afterward, I go through my usual morning hit list before going to work. Step out for lunch around two-thirty and head over to the ring for seventy minutes exactly. By four o’clock I’m back to work and home by seven on the dot. And finally after weeks of forcing myself to get out of my own head I get the love of my life back. 

I’m nervous to see her but it’s a good kind of nervous. The sound of the door opening scared the hell out of me. That’s when I heard the most beautiful sound in the world. 

“Enzo, baby, I’m home.” 

My heart began pounding in my chest as I rushed to finish getting dressed. Cleaning up behind myself I sifted through my mental checklist to ensure part two of my plan runs efficiently. 

Taking a deep breath I cut the lights and left the room. I followed the sound of Kary’s ‘oohs’ and ‘oh my gods’ coming to find her in the kitchen. Her curiosity almost got her into trouble but she managed to keep her hands put. 

“I didn’t expect you until later.” I said. Kary glanced over her shoulder, her eyes lighting up at the sight of me. I told Myles this suit was a great idea. 

“I thought I would surprise you by catching an earlier flight. Clearly you had the same idea with surprises. You set all this up for me?” She shrugged off her coat and closed the distance between us. 

I took a moment to check out all of my efforts, happy with the turn out. With flowers, candles, her gifts displayed nicely, and the scent of the meal I prepared I definitely earned some points for this. Eager to minimize our distance I met her halfway drinking in every inch of her that I could with these barriers in between us. By barriers I do mean our clothes. She must’ve gotten a temporary room to clean up and change in because this scent lingering on her body and clothes is new to me. 

“You took..a shower...without me?” I spoke and exhaled in between kisses. Kary gets a good laugh out of me pretending to be upset with some things she does without me around. I’m never truly bothered but it’s fulfilling to make her laugh at silly shit. 

“This was an exception E, I needed some serious TLC after that long flight.” Backing up to cup my face in the palm of her hands Kary searched both of my eyes in silence. The expanding grin on her face inspired my own. 

“Why are you smiling so much?” I asked of her. 

“I could ask you the same thing but I already know it’s because you’re happy to see me. How much did you miss me?” Kary’s hands busied themselves with my clothes as she examined me from head to toe. 

“Oh I can show you better than I can tell you. Ready to eat? I cooked for you and it’s ready. As am I.” I joked. She and I laughed in richness and ventured to our kitchen together. 

She went back to admiring the layout of our house with me not able to keep my hands off of her. It took me all of five minutes to realize that her skirt is brand new. It’s one of those skirts that come to the knees with buttons going down the center seam. The only difference from this particular style of skirts and others is that this one is fitting. Kary will throw on a dress any time of year but a skirt, she rarely will purchase. 

“I like this new outfit. When did you get this?” Getting a feel for the fabric I expressed the pleasure it brought to me beneath my fingers. 

“I was feeling adventurous and this little number happened to be marked down seventy percent off. I had a feeling you’d like it.” Kary stepped ahead and hustled around the kitchen not waiting for me. My all time favorite thing to watch is Kary fending for herself when she’s hungry. Whenever her craving for food is magnified she gets this look in her eye. In the beginning of our relationship I would place a story behind every little thing that attracted me to her. 

Now I just identify the attraction as attraction. I find it appealing and arousing when she showcases her need for the basics in life. Her will to eat is at the top of that list. 

“Mm..mama’s hungry.” Chucking at her maneuvering swiftly to fix two plates I caught her eye. 

She flipped me the bird and motioned for me to come closer and help her out. “Mama is hungry for many many things. Was Myles here? I’m getting the sense that he was. That lingering trace of Polo is hitting me in the face.” 

“He was for a little while, yeah. He told me to pass on a hello to you. That fool tried so hard to stick around for dinner but you already know how that conversation went.” I took over the ship again ushering her to sit at the table. “You go off to work for a month straight and here you are still putting in time? I don’t believe you. When did you ever sleep?” 

“Fixing a plate is nothing compared to what I was doing over the past four weeks. You spent all this time preparing all of this for me. I think the least I can do is help out a little.” Here goes the bargaining. Typical, overachieving, non-stop working Kary Santos-Warren. 

“Oh come on. Save me the good wife speech baby, I know what you are capable of. What are you drinking tonight? Red..white..water..” Carrying her plate over to her I matched her smirk. 

“I think I’ll switch it up tonight. Do we still have that Brandy?” She questioned me about it. 

Tipping my head to her I walked back into the kitchen to grab a plate for myself and the Brandy. She and I were given this forty five year aged liquor for Christmas. I put it away towards the back of our liquor cabinet saving it for a special occasion. Tonight is the best reason to open this bad boy up. 

Kary volunteered to bless our evening and our meal. Her speech touched me in a few ways due to some things that she spoke on. 

“You’re getting emotional? Wow, this isn’t the Enzo I know and love. What’s changed, lover boy?” Her bare foot tickled my pant leg before she continued on with raising the bottom half with her toes. 

The coolness of her toe pads gave me chills but I embraced them all. I’ve missed this woman terribly so nothing she can do will get on my nerves. 

“I’m not being emotional. Your blessing touched me deeper than usual that’s all. Talk to me about your trip. How was it? I wanna know everything.” Kary spilled every detail of what her work trip was like, not leaving any information out. 

Setting my empty glass aside I folded my hands behind my plate, drinking in her existence. She helped herself to seconds of dinner signifying that I outdid myself. I do have a fourth course for her, which is her absolute favorite. 

Kary licked her knife clean and gently set it down, giving me this intense eye. “I must say babe, that was amazing. I can tell you took your time with the sherry. Myles must have been busting your balls about not screwing up my sauce huh?” 

“God, you are so fucking smart. Yes, Myles was giving me the hardest time about the dinner period to be honest with you. He was practically with me all day until I kicked him out.” Rising from my seat I picked up her plate and mine, taking them both to the kitchen. 

“Is there more? Because quiero mas, por favor..” Kary sang out from the dining room table.

“Give me five minutes and I’ll be right back.” I guaranteed her. Removing my infamous banana bread from the oven I set up a small plate neatly for us to share. Removing the Brandy from the shelf I poured her and I another serving, rejoining her once again. “For you my queen. Open.” Seeing Kary’s mouth open visibly made my erection go from a three to an honest ten.  

Her eyelids closed along with her mouth around the fork. “God, I have missed the satisfying taste of your baking. You are the only person I know that can bring me this type of joy from food alone. Happy anniversary my love. You’ve given me the best escape from reality, the best life, so much joy, peace and happiness. In all of the years we have been together, I have never once felt unhappy or unimportant. You are my everything babe.” 

Although Kary and I have had difficulty in the past trying to get pregnant, maybe tonight is the night. Mashallah.

[thesecretfandom]

White Elephant in the Room - Bughead

8 Days of Reindeer Games

Day Two: Dancer

Word Count: 985

Rated: G

Prompt: Presents- Shopping, cards, gift exchanges

(Read on AO3)

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Betty rang the buzzer for the apartment marked 'Andrews/Lodge.' It was time for Veronica's annual gift exchange, this time a White Elephant exchange instead of a Secret Santa. Jughead had refused to tell her what gift he had brought for the occasion, and she likewise.

"Fashionably late," Veronica's voice came through the speaker. "I like it."

She buzzed them in and the two took the elevator to the fifth floor where Archie and Veronica shared a two bedroom apartment. Both Archie and Veronica greeted them at the door, ushering them in to their mismatched home. Touches of both Veronica and Archie were present in the holiday décor. White and gold touches covered most of the apartment, but a few homemade ornaments from Archie's childhood hung on the tree.

"Merry Christmas everyone!" Betty greeted her fellow guests. Kevin and Moose were in the kitchen with Josie, while Reggie fiddled with the speakers. Christmas music poured loudly from the speakers before Reggie managed to turn the volume to an acceptable level. Toni and Cheryl were tangled together on the couch, barely noticing the new guests.

"Now that everyone's here. Let's all fill our glasses and get some food." Archie took the cookies that Betty had brought and added them to the table of treats in the kitchen.

"I'm sure everyone is familiar with a White Elephant gift exchange, but humor me while I explain anyway." Veronica stood in front of the Christmas tree as her guests got cozy. She held out a handful of playing cards to her guests. "Everyone will get a number, one through ten. Number one gets to choose their gift first. Number two, can choose a gift and then either trade with number one or keep the gift they chose. Number three can trade with either person and so on."

"I call number ten." Reggie said.

"Not so fast, Reginald. You didn't let me finish." Veronica started offering up cards to her guests. "At the very end, the person with number one will get the chance to trade the gift they have with anyone. So, number one is actually the best number to have. Do not reveal which gift you brought until the end."

Archie reached out to take a card. "Handsome goes first."

Reggie reached up next. "First is the worst, second is the best."

"Easy boys…" Cheryl took a card, followed by Toni. "The testosterone levels are getting a bit high in here."

Moose, Kevin, and Josie pulled their cards next. Jughead and Betty were last, save for Veronica. When they'd all chosen their numbers,  Veronica sat down on the arm of Archie's chair and sipped her wine.

"Okay, who has number one?"

Jughead smiled, flipping his Ace card around for the others to see.

"Fuck you!" Betty gasped. She threw her own card down on the coffee table, revealing the two of diamonds.

"Tough luck babe." Jughead shrugged. He grabbed a large gift bag and returned to his seat next to Betty. He unceremoniously tossed the tissue paper on the floor. Something between a laugh and groan came out of his mouth, sounding more like a snort.

The first thing he pulled from the bag was a pair of bright pink crocs, followed by a children's make-up kit complete with lip gloss, eye shadow, and sticker gems. At the bottom of the bag was the game 'What do you Meme?'

"I think I sorely misunderstood what a white elephant gift exchange was." Jughead commented.

"Betty's turn!" Veronica nudged her with her foot.

Betty went for a medium-sized box wrapped in sparkling gold paper, knowing Veronica had wrapped this one. She peeled the paper away delicately. Betty had always found it difficult to rip through wrapping paper when it looked so beautiful. The gifts lay inside the box cushioned with tissue paper. She pulled out a vanilla bean candle, a tea tree oil face mask, and a jar of lavender bubble bath. Hidden underneath all of that was a navy blue journal with silver stitching.

"Oh, my God… please don't take this away from me." Betty begged. This was everything she needed for the world's coziest night at home… save for a tall glass of red wine.

"Good luck with that one, B." Veronica said. "I can see Cheryl eyeing that thing from here."

Sure enough, when they'd made it to the end of the line, Cheryl had number ten. Only one gift remained under the tree. A poorly wrapped box with a dent in the corner. She barely even looked at the box when she unwrapped it, revealing a six pack of beer and a gift card for Pop's taped on the box.

"Okay Betty, hand it over." Cheryl shoved the box toward Betty, and she had no choice but to do the same.

"I'll miss you spa night." She blew a kiss dramatically at the gift and passed it over. Betty handed her new gift to Jughead. "You can have the beer, but I will be taking that gift card."

"Fair enough." Jughead shrugged. "Hey, I get a chance to trade, right?"

"What, you don't want to keep the crocs?" Moose commented.

"In fact, I have had my eye on something else." Jughead flicked his eyes toward Cheryl. "Hand it over, Deadeye."

"What!?" She shrieked. "Absolutely not, you heathen. I don't want that disaster of a gift."

Jughead glanced to Veronica. It was her game after all.

"Sorry, Cheryl. That's how the game works."

Cheryl sighed, but finally let Jughead take the gift. Jughead passed it to Betty, who was currently sitting with only a fifteen dollar paper gift card to Pop's in her hands.

"An even trade?" Jughead said, just to her.

"God, I love you." Betty hugged him tight before admiring her gift again.

"Gag me." Cheryl rolled her eyes. She stood and returned to the kitchen to fill her glass of wine. "Merry Christmas, bitches!"

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A/N: Perhaps I’ll just remain a two days behind on all of the 8 days... but I hope you enjoyed nonetheless. Let me know what you think!

[anneedmonds]

Life Update: What Have I Done?

I’ve had a slightly longer break from work than anticipated; but don’t worry, there’s nothing sinister afoot. I’m not ill, the dog didn’t die, I’ve not had a drastic facelift that meant I needed to hide behind bandages for a month. I was just absolutely shattered before Christmas and then the school holidays (aka “the great relentless abyss of no childcare”) completely finished me off.

I won’t harp on about Christmas not being a holiday – you can read this post from the same time last year and just update the kids’ ages – but it’s safe to say that having a four and two year old is as much work (possibly more) than having a three and a one year old. At least toddlers (generally) haven’t discovered eye-rolling and chat-back. At least toddlers are vaguely amused by wrapping paper, empty boxes and the jangly bell from a Lindt bunny tied to the end of a piece of ribbon. Fast-forward a year and the children now want painting games on the iPad and festive biscuit-decorating sessions.

Anyway, to cut a long and fairly pedestrian story short, I decided to take a few casual days off when school started back last week so that I actually had more than twenty seconds to myself. It was great. On the first of the two child-free days (there were four school days in total but Ted only goes to nursery part time) I stayed in bed looking for second hand velvet sofas on eBay and browsing for vintage rugs on Vinterior. On the second child-free day, which – alas – wasn’t consecutive – I went to Bath in the morning with Mr AMR, had some lunch and then sorted out the shoes and boots in the utility room. Bliss.

So that covers the two days last week when I actually had some proper time off: what of the rest of the “holiday”? What an earth have I been up to, seeing as though I’ve been on a self-imposed social media ban which theoretically should free up about nine hours a day? Here’s a run-down: brace positions, people, it’s a wild ride.

I learnt how to use the scanner thing at Sainsbury’s. Have you used these supermarket handheld beepy scanner things? I’m not talking about the self checkout tills, which are so useless and stress-inducing they make me want to chew off my own feet, I’m referring to the handsets that you pick up at the start of your shop and take around with you, zapping barcodes as you go, so that at the end of your shop you can just pay and go.

No unloading the trolley at the till only to pack it up again and then unload it into the boot of your car.  (Sounds such a ridiculous waste of time when you write it down.) No watching helplessly as your bottle of Malbec slowly rolls along the conveyor belt, straight off the end and then smashes on the floor. No performance anxiety as you try to pack your bags in front of the people waiting in the queue behind you – the pressure as you feel them judging your packing speed and dexterity! The shame as you fumble to retrieve your bag-for-life from the floor! The panic as a loose lime you’ve reached for rolls away, escaping your grasp. You can feel your audience’s eyes trained upon you – they wince as you pack heavy potatoes on top of squishy cherry tomatoes, they breathe an audible sigh of relief when you realise that the milk is leaking and ask if someone could possibly get you another.

“JANET! JANET! Six litres of full fat on checkout nine! The woman’s got a leaky one!”

None of that when you use the handheld scanner. Utter genius, it is. Although I have to say, don’t let your kids mess about with it. I almost paid for eight giant boxes of dishwasher tablets and a “Pressure King” pressure cooker.

I saved over £290 on curtain tie-backs. Yes, you heard me – £290! The one from Samuel & Sons that matched my tasselled curtain (photo above) would have been £300 inc VAT and I managed to get an (admittedly much plainer) version without the tassel but with all the same tying-back abilities in the Laura Ashley sale. Eight quid! The fact that it took me around ninety-five man hours to research alternative tie-backs is by the by. I’m pretty sure my labour costs were more than the original tie-back…

I made Yorkshire Puddings properly for the first time and they were immense. Quite literally. I put a bit too much batter into each tin and they rose to just about fill the top oven. I think one of them was almost ten inches tall. Who cares, though – more is more when it comes to Yorkshire Puddings, surely? It’s the only part of a roast dinner I’m actually bothered about. Next year at Christmas I might just make myself a giant Yorkshire and fill it with gravy. Bit of al dente broccoli. Scrap of turkey and a dollop of cranberry and I’m done.

I took the stair gate off and now Mr Bear the cat is an omnipresent menace. Honestly, life was easier when he was confined to the ground floor. Now that he has free run of the house he sneaks up on you when you’re in the shower, jumps onto your back when you’re sitting on the loo and pounces on the kids’ feet in bed. He’s having an absolute whale of a time. Although I caught him pointing his claws in the direction of my velvet upholstered Soho Home bed the other day and so the gate might have to be resurrected. It’s been so nice without it though – just walking down the stairs, freely, without having to wrestle with the lock and then risk breaking my neck tripping over the frame. We could have taken it down about a year ago if it wasn’t for the cat and his penchant for creeping about the place and using furniture to sharpen his nails…

I did a self-imposed social media ban. Which I’ve already mentioned, but it’s worth saying again: I didn’t look at any social media from the 21st of December until the other day. Amazingly, my screen time didn’t go down, but that’s because I used all of the social media time trawling the internet for furniture bargains. I reckon if you squished all of the time together, I spent a full day and night searching for stuff on Vinterior – the scrolling started to make me feel seasick! (By the way, if you want to get £50 off your first order with them use RUTH CRILLY in the code box. This isn’t a special affiliate setup – anyone who orders with them can get a code.)

Why the social media ban? I just wanted a quiet and relaxing Christmas (HA!) and to properly stop thinking about work for a couple of weeks. The thing is that I have a perpetual internal monologue as I go about my day – I almost narrate my own existence – and because of this I’m always tempted to write down every thought that I’ve had, or record every action. Quite often little things I’ve done can form the basis for a post here on A Model Recommends, or I’ll jot down a thought that will then become a bigger idea which then requires a longer sit-down with pen and paper to elaborate, and unless I absolutely switch off, one hundred percent, the temptation is always there to quickly write a caption or draft a blog post.

So I moved all of my social media apps to a different page of the iPhone menu so that they weren’t staring me in the face when I opened my phone and then I just sort of forgot about them. I can highly recommend it, at least every once in a while. I actually think I have an OK relationship with social media – I’m definitely not addicted and can easily detach myself – but still. A digital cleanse felt pretty good!

Now I’m finding it quite hard to get back to work, however – I’m dragging myself very slowly into 2020, like a giant, jumper-wearing slug. I have been setting myself absurdly basic tasks so that my brain doesn’t go into shock;

email the sofa-fixing man about fixing the sofa, ask him to fix the sofa and how much it would be to fix the sofa. Can he even fix the sofa?

How are you finding the New Year? Did you set any resolutions or do you have a masterplan for 2020? Mine is to try and be more organised with work so that I don’t feel so stressed – plan my content and commitments in advance so that I know what I need to get done, rather than just fitting in tasks at the last minute or late at night. 2020 is the year of the new, streamlined me!

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[bruciewayne]

tell me about the stars [7/20]

masterpost

[ao3]

Friday, 21st December

“Come on Stevie-boy, up and at ‘em,” Bucky declared, throwing open Steve’s curtains and tearing back his covers, revealing an annoyed Steve Rogers clad in sweats and a pirated-from-Bucky hoodie. He threw his arm over his eyes, tattoos peeking out from under the sleeve. Stop thinking about kissing every single tattoo he has, god, Barnes.

“No.” Steve pouted, with pink-pink lips, voice rough and hoarse from disuse over the night. Bucky rolled his eyes, fondly, he knew exactly how to get him out of bed (his problems were getting Steve into bed. With him.).

“Stevie, I got you a caramel frap-” his reaction was almost comical: he shot up like a man possessed and made grabby-hands in the general vicinity of Bucky’s voice, god knows how bad his, eyesight was. Bucky, in what was not a good move for his crush admiration, picked up Steve’s glasses from next to a day-old glass of water and slid them onto his face, an incredibly bad move because somehow, it had slipped his mind just how good Steve looked in glasses. Because damn Steve looked good in his glasses.

He hadn’t noticed that they’d gotten closer until Steve blinked up at him, “Hi.”

Bucky swallowed but didn’t move back, “Hey, Stevie,”

“Where’s my coffee?”

Bucky laughed, ducking his head and grinning at him, “Kitchen, your highness,” and Steve pouted again, adorably, “Too far,” he said, decidedly and made to flop back onto his mattress but Bucky, in one swift move, grabbed his arms and pulled him forwards and off the bed. Steve stumbled forwards, into Bucky’s chest. He was muscly and he smelled nice.

Steve, not being a morning person, at all, and it being fucking six am, the sun barely above the horizon and because he hadn’t had any coffee, wasn’t thinking especially straight. As if he could be straight anywhere near Bucky.

And also not fully aware of what he was doing. Or what he was saying.

Meaning he’d said that Bucky was muscly and smelled nice out loud. FUCK.

But Bucky just laughed, it was early, Steve had no idea what he was saying, and tried to tamp down the hope that maybe he actually believed it. He told him to thank his gym membership and Axe. He also told Steve to get dressed and because he needed to go and get the rental, while Bucky took their bags and the presents down twenty million five flights of stairs to ground level because he refused to give Steve an asthma attack.

Even if it meant that the roads of New York were going to be slightly more dangerous because a one Steve Rogers drove like an absolute fucking maniac. Maybe the road trip wasn’t the best idea in that sense, but Steve absolutely refused to step on a plane.

Twenty minutes later, Steve was dressed, his coffee had been drunk, and he’d headed out in the pale, early morning, barely-there winter light to go to the warehouse. Meaning Bucky had about half an hour to go to the art shop, King, on the edge of Brooklyn run by an old Jewish guy, Jack Kirby, that Steve loved.

When he got there, he went in search for the set markers he’d seen Steve linger over the last time they were there, eventually picking brushes and some other things that he’d desperately needed to replace over the markers.

He found them and took them over to the counter, Jack, the owner, greeted him with a friendly smile, they came there pretty often, “Ah, Bucky, it’s good to see you, how’s your boy?” and at Bucky’s confused look, “Steve, skinny little blonde guy,”

“Ohh, uh, we’re not, we’re not together, I mean, we’re still friends, but we’re not together-together, y’know?”

Jack cut off his rambling with a look , the very specific look relatively elderly people give to younger people when they're being particularly oblivious and/or stupid. “Ok, it’s ok, you two always were slow. Anyway, this is for him, yes?”

“Yeah, Christmas present,” a million things flowing through his head, the guy was probably just saying vague, broad, non-applicable to Bucky’s life, statements, the way relatively old people did sometimes. But, could it mean something? Probably not.

“You want it wrapped?” Bucky nodded, pulling out his wallet to pay.

Just as he was about to leave, Jack called out, “Don’t give up on him,” and under his breath, that Bucky just about caught, but maybe misheard, “They’re happy in this one, no alien shit, but still not together, morons”

Yeah, he probably misheard.

He managed to get home in time to take everything down, the subway ride and walk clearing his head, and greet Steve, who pulled up by their apartment block. They put everything in the boot and slammed it shut, the resounding bang barely making a dent in the soundscape of the city.

Steve held out a hand, loosely curled into a fist, “Rock, paper, scissors who drives first.”

Steve won. He grinned and made his way to the passenger side of the car and slid in. Bucky just chuckled under his breath and got into the driver's seat.

Steve had already gotten comfortable, feet up on the dash and fiddling with his phone, connected to the car’s Bluetooth, on Spotify. Bucky set up google maps, and just as they were about to drive off, Steve stopped him, “Wait,” he tapped a couple more things on his phone, “ok...GO!”

He drove off to ‘Fairytale of New York’, and at his confused look, Steve waved his phone, “Shuffle.” Sure why not. Just chance.

They drove in silence, the car filled with Christmas songs from Steve’s playlist, he spent most of the drive sleeping or messing around on his phone.

He was napping when Bucky woke him up, this time by tapping incessantly on his face. “Wakey-wakey Stevie, we’re at a service station,” Steve, without opening his eyes mumbled, “Get me coffee, surprise me,” and slid further down in his seat. “‘Kay, but you’re driving now, so stay awake,” Bucky said, getting out of the car and going into the Starbucks.

Steve stayed as he was for another minute before getting out, stretching, taking a deep breath and getting into the driver’s side. He leaned over the console to get his smaller, A5 sketchbook and a mechanical pencil. He doodled out some ideas, most of them vague concepts, a couple of things that could go in his portfolio.

Exhausted out of ideas, he dated the page and flipped to another one. drawing out ridiculously familiar shapes, tracing out long, curved lines, and short flicks, eventually forming Bucky’s grinning face, his hair up in a man bun, some of it falling out, framing his face. God, he was so whipped.

He saw Bucky walking back, holding two coffees and a bag of cookies, out of the corner of his eye, quickly flipping the page back and pretending to shade and render some of the ideas.

Bucky slid into the passenger seat, handed him his coffee and settled into the same position Steve was in, legs bent at the knee, a was significantly taller than Steve, after all. To the average straight and/or tall person, it might seem uncomfortable, but, as literally, everyone else knows; it was very comfortable.

As soon as Steve finished his coffee (peppermint mocha, he was pleasantly surprised), they were off, driving for another three hours, this time with Bucky napping.

He woke up just before Steve pulled into a Denny’s, “You couldn’t find anything better?” Steve pouted adorably, “I want Denny’s,”

“No one in the history of ever has ever wanted Denny’s. Ever.” Bucky said, incredulously, “next place, c’mon.” Steve looked over at him and then the Denny’s in front of him. He put the car into reverse and pulled out to Bucky’s cheers, god he was adorable.

It took them a couple of minutes until they found a diner, that looked like it was straight out of the 50s. Steve gave Bucky a look, “Good enough?” He grinned and nodded, “Yup,” he paused for a moment, thinking, “hey, Stevie, do you think we should do some more dating practice, I mean, according to Riverdale, diners are meant to be romantic.” Dating practice? wtf Barnes!

“I can’t believe you’re going off Riverdale for romantic ideas, but yes, honey, let’s go have lunch,” Steve said, slipping easily into the role, the pet name falling naturally from his lips, not that he’d been thinking about this since way too long.

They walked into the diner, hands linked, swinging slightly between them. The bell rang out clearly in the pretty quiet diner, there were three pretty big guys, maybe mid-thirties in one corner booth and what looked like a college-aged couple on a date, the way the guy looked at his girl, like she held up his world, and the way the girl looked at him, like he’d saved her from hell, they both looked like they would go to hell and back for each other and although Bucky was pretty sure they were about pre-grad aged, they both looked like they’d been through shit. He hoped that they were happy.

“Babe? Earth to Bucko, Bucky?” Steve waved his hand in front of his face, jerking him out of his thoughts, “what d’ya want?” Bucky, eloquent as always, “Uh,” he looked down at Steve, who was smiling softly at him, eyes filled with laughter, fuck, he was beautiful.

Bucky kept looking down at Steve, unable to tear his eyes away from him, he wasn’t even doing anything spectacular special? How… why...

“Oh. My. God. they’re useless, abso-fucking-lutely completely and utterly shit-stinkingly useless.” Bucky was snapped out of his thoughts for the second time in a minute, but this time by a guy in a red and black mask and a matching suit with... swords? strapped to his back.

“Hey, buddy, you got lost on the way to comic-con?” Oh no.

Steve had turned around and was glaring up at him, but the guy just laughed, “Aw, that’s just fucking adorable, small fry, good to see that’s still the sam-” he got interrupted by a middle-aged, kinda jacked guy with a metal arm, who also looked like he should be at comic-con, the middle-aged guy grumbled about needing to keep ‘Wade’ (he assumed that was the red guy’s name) on a dog leash and pulled him out of the diner, much to Wade’s dismay.

Steve was still angry, so he did what any good fake boyfriend would do, he slipped an arm around his shoulders and pressed a kiss to his forehead. Even though he knew it was for show, the way all of Steve’s anger dissipated and the way he leaned into Bucky, he couldn’t help but think that maybe, just possibly if any of it was just for show.

“I’ll just get you boys the same thing, go grab a booth, it’ll be there in five minutes.” They were broken out of their little bubble by the waitress, they nodded and made their way to a window booth, sliding in opposite each other.

“So, that was strange,” Steve said, leaning across the counter, resting on his elbows. Bucky mimicked him, so they ended up incredibly close, unintentionally, of course. “Yeah, but strange people are everywhere, there would’a been twenty strange people at the Denny’s,” “Yeah, I know but-”

“Here are your burgers, boys and a shake, on the house, to share, young love like yours is something to be celebrated.” They were interrupted by the waitress placing a tray on the table and a vanilla shake, topped with whipped cream and a flake, with two straws.

They both turned, grinned at her, and said “Thanks,” in a creepy sort of synchronisation. She just chuckled under her breath, well used to couples like them. “You’re welcome, enjoy now,” she said warmly, walking away back behind the counter.

They both turned back to each other, yeah, they could sell it.

The rest of their drive passed without any more strange people, although Steve’s perceptions of strange were wildly different to Bucky’s, Steve spent most of his time stabbing people with needles (and not in the life-saving way) on various body parts and Bucky spent most of his time astrophysics-ing at a university.

But even he would say that during the rest of their drive, they didn’t meet any strange, probably-got-lost-on-the-way-to-comic-con people.

It passed in a haze of Christmas songs, a blur of cities and fractions of conversations about Bucky’s family and before they knew it, the hours had flown by, and Bucky was pulling up to his parents’ house.

“You scared?” Bucky asked, turning to Steve, who shrugged, “Do I got any reason to be?” Bucky grinned at him, “Nope,”

“Let’s get this bread.”

The second they knocked on the door, it burst open, and Bucky was gathered into his mom’s arms, to her utterances of “It’s been too long,” and “You look tired,” and “You work too hard.”

She eventually let him go, after he said: “Mom, mom, this is Steve, my boyfriend, remember I told you about him.” She turned towards him “Ohh, it’s nice to meet you, Steve, I’ve heard a lot about you,” Steve shot a look to Bucky, who just shrugged in return.

“Uh, it’s, uh, good to meet you too Mrs. Barnes.” Steve said, suddenly nervous. Bucky’s mom just laughed and pulled him into a hug as well.

“Call me Winnie, dear, or mom,” she said, winking, laughing at them when they turned red, Bucky sputtering and trying to say something about ‘holding off the wedding bells’.

After they’d calmed down, Bucky slid an arm around Steve’s shoulders, kissing him softly on his temple when he leaned into him. Bucky’s mom smiled at them and told them to put their stuff in Bucky’s old room.

“And no funny business in there,” she called after them, laughing at them when they turned red and sputtered again.

Yeah, he’s gonna marry him, she knows her boy well.

[soundincomestrategies]

Market Forecast With Harry Dent And David Scranton

Market Forecast With Harry Dent 

  David Scranton: I’m David Scranton and you’re watching the very first weekly edition of a new kind of show. A show that turns its spotlight on personal finance and investment strategies, those which address the needs of The Income Generation. The question is, are you part of The Income Generation? Well, let’s find out. If you can tell me what people do when E.F. Hutton talks or have typed on your Smith Corona before you bought a COMPAQ computer, if you read Life magazine or shop at WOOLWORTHS you might, just might be part of The Income Generation. Or maybe you once forgot to return a video to Blockbuster, I know I have, or you paid a bill to Ma Bell, lost sleep over the Soviet Union or held a mortgage with interest rates as high as six, ten or even 18 yes 18 percent. If you once invested confidently in the NASDAQ, dropped off film at Fotomat, dreamt of owning that new Pontiac or Hummer, watch the McNeil Lehrer News Hour, booked a flight on T.W.A. or played with Lionel Trains there’s a pretty good chance you’re part of The Income Generation. Which means you’re either retired or want to be able to retire within the next twenty years or so. Welcome to the show designed just for you. For you my fellow Income Generation viewers who haven’t yet purchased a new Hummer or a new sweater at Gimbels or haven’t flown T.W.A. or any of the other things I’ve mentioned, your opportunity is long past. These things simply don’t exist any longer. But you shouldn’t be concerned because the world always brings unexpected change and with that change we have to accept that the things we were once able to do have now been replaced with other opportunities. So even though today toy trains are not made by Lion-El, Texas Instruments doesn’t make calculators and you can’t watch Louis Rukeyser on Wall Street Week, life’s ongoing changes have ushered in many new opportunities on what you can buy, how you can invest and ways to live. This show is about bringing you new and often simple ideas on how to adapt to the changes that affect everyone especially in the area of your personal finances including those decisions that you make on your return on investment, which social security options to take, how to manage health care costs, major expenses and even housing.

Tonight’s inaugural show is part of that ongoing change. Why? Because along with news that directly affects you, The Income Generation, you’re going to find a different tone in the atmosphere than most other shows that discuss your money. First of all, you’ll notice there’s no wild-eyed commentator yelling at you through the television screen. Second, you won’t be bombarded with alerts, fast talk, flashing lights, bells or bright sets. That’s my promise to you as your host, David Scranton. It’s an important promise for me because we’re all grown up now and you know that, that noise and distraction isn’t going to help you make the most of your personal finances simply not going to make it help you make better decisions with your money. I’ve been on the air over 300 times as a guest on other business news so when they asked me if I do an investment show I told them under one circumstance, only if my program could be useful and meaningful for people in my generation. Why? Because people approaching or in retirement don’t deserve an angry journalist telling them how to think politically, globally or even environmentally. You simply don’t need that.

I am a career financial analyst and author and a businessman who wants to use real insight to discuss with my guests, those who are at the top of their respective fields, new avenues to completely address some of the most perplexing questions that you are most likely experiencing. Welcome to The Income Generation. For those of you who aren’t in this age range, we’re sure you’ll find the wisdom presented in the next hour more than worthwhile. Especially tonight’s show where we welcome our guest author and fame economist, Harry Dent Jr to answer questions that are critical to people of all generations. He’s here to help us discover trends and connections that no one else unearths. I have personally been following Harry for 20 years and could say that with 100 percent conviction. Today we’re going to ask Harry point blank what he thinks is going to happen next with interest rates, with the stock market, with gold in real estate. My own understanding of what drives the major markets expands every time I’ve spoken to Harry or read one of his books over those 20 years I was discussing. His unique research lays out well-grounded common sense causes for market moves past, present, and future. Frankly, Harry Dent highlights associations that most analysts aren’t even looking at they don’t even know exists and he makes it absolutely clear to his audience how he derives his forecasts and tells them exactly what this forecast means to you. So anyone who’s working, has worked for 35 to 40 years or more deserves to be able to know that they will have a steady income to at least take care of their basic needs if not to provide for a life that takes full advantage of the free time found during retirement. I’ve been helping my clients and even my radio show listeners enjoy this portion of their lives for years now and I’m thankful for the opportunity that Newsmax has presented for all of us to get to know each other, each Sunday at this time. And I encourage you if you’re not the sole financial decision maker in your household to grab the person with whom you share this important responsibility and get ready for a fun and informative hour.

This brings us to tonight’s Income Generation Market Breakdown where we shed light on what’s going on in the economy and markets that most affect you. It’s been over a year since the Federal Open Market Committee or what’s called the FOMOC ended its so-called quantitative easing. This is a drastic move in which is designed to provide life support and stimulus to a near dead economy I call it, economic steroids. The strategy which included the Federal Reserve purchasing 3.5 trillion dollars in bonds, an amount roughly the size of the German economy, in order to inject cash into the U.S. economy and support low bowling costs. This strategy was, in addition to an earlier plan, to keep short-term interest rates around zero where they remain today. Since the beginning of the so-called quantitative easing or Q.E. as it’s called, critics have argued that these steps would fuel inflation and cause asset bubbles in markets that thrive on low-interest rates. When these quantitative easing purchases ended however in October of 2014, most expected interest rates to begin to rise almost immediately. Well so far over a year later, interest rates have not gone up and the inflation spike hasn’t materialized. For 2015, in fact, inflation is only up one-tenth of one percent. So does this prove that these many experts were wrong? Well whether asset bubbles resulted or inflation will become a problem, it still remains to be seen over the long term. The U.S. is still in unchartered territory when it comes to these new economic and monetary policies. The good news, however, for pretty much everyone, is that the economy didn’t falter after the cash injections ended as some had expected. The lesson good news however, is that the economic pace didn’t take off either. With a year of lackluster employment gains, weak corporate earnings, low growth in production which is measured by the G.D.P. (the Gross Domestic Product) as well as faltering global economies, there has been a long drum roll so to speak while the markets have waited for the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade, Now we may finally get what we’ve been waiting for in the middle of this month a small rise in short term interest rates but frankly I wouldn’t even bet my life savings on that. It isn’t just the big money on Wall Street waiting, The Income Generation, many of you, many who have retired or going to be retiring shortly who expected in their retirement plans or pre-retirement plans to earn four or five percent on bank deposits or in bank C.D.’s or other products or investments have had to tighten their belts for eight years or more. Interest rates this low, for this long, were just not part of the plan for retirees. After the last F O M C meeting in October the Fed’s state and explain that what they’ll do in terms of interest rate increases will depend upon economic data. Well up until now we really haven’t had data that screens for higher interest rates. Does this mean the drumroll may continue through the meeting on December 15th and December 16th? Well again it’s quite possible, I wouldn’t necessarily hold my breath on rates going up on December 15th and 16th. No matter how you slice it though, it is a close call. The economy is just not that strong and inflation just doesn’t seem to be a problem right now. But here’s some economic news to get you going.

The good news is that gasoline prices, as most are aware, are down roughly 50 percent from this time last year and they’re likely to stay down as output and inventory levels for oil continue to be high and demand for oil in a weak low global economy is simply not expected to strengthen. Prices in most of the country are now just about two dollars and twenty cents a gallon or about seventy cents a gallon lower than they were a year ago. Maybe we’ll get a Santa Claus gift and have prices under two dollars a gallon by Christmas, you never know. But before you hop in that car and take that trip, stick around. Why? Because we’re all going to find out from Harry Dent what he sees over the horizon for all of us. And then we’re going to drill down and make it more personal to you as individuals. In fact, we should get really, really interesting because if you read Harry’s most recent book you’ll know that sex actually plays an important role. So I’m sure you have a lot to think about and talk about at your holiday parties.

Over the last three decades, today’s guest has been relied upon by business executives, financial advisors, and investors around the world. He’s appeared on Good Morning America, P.B.S. C N.B.C., and C.N.N. Finance. In fact, you may have read his commentary in Barron’s, Investor’s Business, Daily, Entrepreneur, Fortune, U S News and World Report, The Wall Street Journal or Omni. In fact, he’s a regular guest on FOX Businesses Nightly Scorecard and has written numerous books. In Harry Dent’s 1992 book ‘The Great Boom Ahead’, he had very little company as he accurately forecasts of the unanticipated boom at the fines that economic era. That same year he also authored two consecutive books, ‘The Roaring 2000s’ and ‘The Roaring 2000’s Investor’. If you read his 2004 book which included twenty years of forecasts called, ‘The Next Great Bubble Boom’ you may have been prepared for 2008 economic in the financial collapse. In fact, back in 1989 this week guest warned that Japan’s collapse was inevitable and in the 1990’s, he nailed the rise and fall that was the dot-com bubble. I was following his work in 2006 when he warned the housing bust was on the horizon and in 2008 those that listened may have been able to save a lot of grief by successfully positioning themselves for the credit collapse and collapse in equity values. So it’s no surprise that he was right on these forecasts because he’s a Harvard educated economist, author, and publisher and highly sought after speaker. Harry Dent also has a popular newsletter with over three hundred thousand subscribers. We’ll be grilling Harry today to better understand his methods, what he forecast for The Income Generation specifically, and hopefully have a little fun discussing what all of you individually can expect within your own household.

Harry, welcome to the show.

Harry Dent: Nice to be here.

David Scranton: Great to have you. You say that governments are fighting unprecedented demographic and debt trends. That could only be fought so long with artificial stimulus in this thing we call quantitative easing. Harry, give us an idea of the trends that you’re observing.

Harry Dent: Well first of all the baby boom generation around the world, largest generation in modern history towards the generation before it and somewhat the generation after it. So it first peaked in Japan in the late 80’s, we were the only people to saw that because we have a spending way, peak spending at age forty six we move forward the birth trends for then. And so when a generation is going to spend and no,t and it told us Japan was going to dive in the ninety’s just when people thought it was going to take over the world. And Germany has the worst trends today in Europe and nobody’s going to see that coming. But the United States peaked in 2007, we predicted that 20 years in advance: baby boomers would peak, the spending momentum would go down and we’ve had quantitative easing ever since in 2008 forward. So that’s number one, demographic trends are peaking and one country after the next around the world. Europe is the next to get hit hard and then debt, twice the debt compared to G.D.P. that we had in the roaring 20’s bubble only happens once in a lifetime and debt causes financial asset bubbles. So these things have to burst and of course the last time they did we got the 1930’s.

David Scranton: Of course. Now it’s funny you mention Germany because if that’s true then that doesn’t bode well for the euro. And then you also mention, you told me that the issue that China is facing right now could even be far worse than that. So how’s it all?

Harry Dent: China is the only emerging country because they have all the demographics in the decades ahead, all the demographic growth. China is the only emerging country that actually their workforce is already shrinking slowly since 2012 and after 2025 falls off a cliff, like Japan. And China has the greatest bubble I’ve ever seen in modern history. They have over built twenty seven percent condos empty in major cities, whole cities of a million plus, nobody in them you know railways, roadways, bridges to nowhere, and the biggest mall in the world is empty and they turned it into a tourist attraction. So they’ve overbuilt everything move people massively. China is the greatest bubble I’ve ever seen, if it doesn’t burst in the next four to five years I will move to Australia, become a limo driver and quit economics. It’s that obvious to me.

David Scranton: Interesting, interesting one. How about the dollar in gold? You expect the dollar to rise and you expect gold to drop which is kind of going to surprise all the gold bugs because most people say, I’m sure you’ve heard, this that gold does well during times of financial crisis. So tell me your view on that

Harry Dent: The biggest financial crisis we had recently was in the second half of 2008 when the whole system blew up. Gold went down 33 percent, silver 50 percent, commodities down, real estate down, stocks down around the world, the only thing that was up was the U.S. dollar and the highest quality bond. So the gold bugs are all wrong. I’ve studied gold back to 1600 adjusted for inflation, it does not appreciate and it makes no income like real estate which also does not appreciate long term adjusted for inflation. So gold is an inflation hedge correlates beautifully with inflation, so the 70’s was a time to own gold. We’re moving into a deflationary period which always follow these financial bubble and debt bubble burst because money’s destroyed, I mean literally trillions of dollars will be destroyed. And so deflation does not favor gold. So that’s why I have more bets with gold bugs and you can imagine I’m winning all of them at this point.

David Scranton: You and I definitely agree with all those terms: deflation, over inflation, looking forward and so on. Now another place we agree, which is very interesting, is and I’m sure we agree but for different reasons as is normally the case between us, is you predict that we can very see a Dow Jones Industrial Average down around 6 thousand or so and I’d like to hear your side of this and why you believe so strongly that that’s likely to happen probably by 2017 I think you said.

Harry Dent: Yeah, yeah. I mean, there is a pattern that is so obvious nobody has seen it, nobody wants to see it. I call it the megaphone pattern and we had stocks peaked in ’65,’68 and ’72, three peaks higher and three crashes lower in the horrible ’73 to ’74 crash. So the Dow peaked in 2000 then it peaked higher in 2007 and now higher in 2015. But each crash has taken us to lower lows. This pattern says its peak the final, you only get three of these, and then this final peak will take us in the next year or two down to about 55 hundred to 6 thousand so that’s just a really good guess. You can only guess in the short term, I can make incredible long term predictions that’s easy. But that’s my most likely scenario, a bigger crash and people always say oh Harry that’s too much, I said we just saw sixty four hundred

David Scranton: Of course

Harry Dent: Into early 2009 and two big crashes and people are telling me, ‘this can’t happen’, after you know 6 – 7 years of total artificial stimulus. How can you ever have a sustainable economy on free money created out of nowhere?

David Scranton: And isn’t also true that in every one of these long term bear markets we’ve ever had we’ve always had at least three major drops, we’ve never had one with just two?

Harry Dent: That has been more typical in the Great Depression we had two major drops. Actually when you go all the way to early ’40’s through. That is typical and when you see, after bubbles the typical bear market is 80 percent not 50 or 60. In Japan, their peak to bottom is 80 percent. And again I keep telling people look at Japan, their baby boom they had a real estate bubble a stock bubble way before the U.S. and Europe because their baby boom peak just before and after World War 2 so way ahead. Now the U.S. is following and people say ‘oh real estate will come bouncing back’. No it hasn’t balanced back in twenty four years in Japan and it went down sixty percent and commercial went down eighty percent. Real estate will never be the same when the next generation does not replace the baby boomers in size and numbers of people. The net demand is going to go down for decades, so real estate’s not going to come roaring back.

David Scranton: Of course. Now what’s interesting is you and I as you well know have agreed with each other over the years on most topics. And the one place that I disagreed one time and was back in the very, very late 1990’s. I was predicting myself that we’d be slipping into a bear market cycle and at that point you’re talking about a Dow possibly it thirty or forty thousand and I know shortly after that you must have gotten some intelligence some research that got you to change your prediction and be more in line with mine. Tell me what made you change it that time?

Harry Dent: Yeah you know we have an 80 cycle, 2 booms, 2 bust and an inflationary crisis and a deflationary crisis. I call it spring, summer, fall, winter. And so we look back at the last Fall season which was in the early 1900’s into the roaring 20’s. And there was a first tech bubble and then it crashed massively just like in the early 2000’s and then there was a second one that was even stronger. So I was expecting that to happen again and then so we got into that. We told people to buy stocks again in October 2002 right at the bottom, literally right at the bottom. But I thought stocks were going to bubble up even more and what I had to do about halfway up that I said you know something’s wrong here we’re not seeing it’s still a bubble stock bubble but we’re not seeing that strong bubble. What was different in the roaring 20’s? I came up with two new cycles a 30-year commodity cycle – killer accurate and a geopolitical cycle which is so important today because this said ’83 to 2000 great geopolitical environment. Nothing went wrong in the world but from 2001 to now and for the next four years, horribly.

David Scranton: and Harry we need to take a quick break but as soon as we get back from that break, we’ll ask Harry more questions about his predictions almost all of which has come through. So don’t go anywhere, we’ll be right back.

We’re here with world-renown economist, Harry Dent. First of all, we both were also talking about some of the predictions you’ve made, the past, present, and future. Now just before the break, you mention that one of the things that got you to change your prediction in late 1990’s going to early 2000’s, was geo political consideration. So could you talk just a little bit more about that for a moment, please?

Harry Dent: Yeah, there is a geo political cycle that I’ve now tracked back two hundred years and its seventeen eighteen years positive. Example, 1983 to 2000, nothing went wrong in the world of any significance. 2001, 9/11 to now everything’s gone wrong and we’ve got four more years in this down cycle. Stocks are valued at fifty percent less in the down cycle of this.  So if I have this cycle in the late 90’s I would have been predicting a down sixteen to twenty thousand I would’ve cut that in half because of this one cycle. It’s a very powerful cycle and it continues the Middle East and everything we’re seeing today is not going to get better for at least four more years until at least early 2020.

David Scranton: I have to agree with that. Of course that sixteen to twenty thousand dollars twenty thousand point Dow range is exactly where we are today, which makes sense to me. You also mention the 30 commodity cycle with something else that you discovered as a result of the tech bubble bursting before you had thought it would happen. Tell us about that?

Harry Dent: Yeah in the roaring 20’s, that final bubble that I was kind of looking at commodity prices were falling. In the 2000 to 2007 bubble commodity prices are rising, in fact, very strongly. So rising commodity prices are not good for earnings and not good for the economies of developed countries. And the collapse of this commodity cycle, again it’s right on thirty years, 1920, 1949 to 1951, 1980 and then now a double top 2011 right on thirty years. Emerging countries are greatly underperforming the global markets because commodities are collapsing and that’s the business there and they are commodity exports.

David Scranton: Interesting very differently.

Harry Dent: Also India and that’s why India is doing well when everybody else is not.

David Scranton: That’s awesome, I love that. I learned so much from you over the years which makes this really, makes it enjoyable having you here today as a guest. Now I know that most of what you do tends to be based around demographic trends. The question I have is really simple: How do you see that being affected by immigration, by refugees into the United States, how is that going to make things different?

Harry Dent: Well immigration is huge for countries like the United States and even more so for Canada, Australia, Singapore and countries like  Switzerland. These are some of the smaller countries the only ones that have a larger eco boom than the baby boom. So I actually calculate in my birth index which I moved forward 46 years for the peak in spending, I calculate in all the legal and illegal immigrants past and future forecasts because I can take computer model and say this is when they were born, so they are in that index. Immigration has a huge impact on demographics just like birth. In fact, even better because immigrants come in working-age ready to go. Kids you have to raise for 20 years before they enter the workforce an average.

David Scranton: Got it

Harry Dent: So they’re a cost, not an asset.

David Scranton: It actually makes sense. It’s funny, usually I watch all the talking heads on television they’re spouting out numbers and what you say to me is just common sense. It just makes sense to the average person who’s listening. Now let’s talk about your book, ‘The Demographic Cliff’. You speak about spending patterns at different ages stages of our lives. What are some of the key times and turning points that you find as we grow throughout the years?

Harry Dent: Well workforce century age twenty on average somebody eighteen some at twenty to college but twenty on average that’s when inflation the cost of raising these kids that’s the biggest factor in inflation is people not monetary policy Milton Friedman was wrong on that one. And so then they start this great spending and they have gotten married, have kids and stuff. And you know so they’ll spend the most money on child care thirty three,, but they’ll buy their first home thirty one they’ll buy their biggest home forty one, they spend the most money at forty six, that’s the next big turning point. But for the affluent who are still spending after 2007 when we said overall economy would peak, the most affluent twenty percent, drive fifty percent of consumer spending now and they don’t peak until fifty four they go to school later their kids go to school later their whole family cycle is later and because of the high income inequality because Q.E. is raising stocks these people are doing very well. But my big surprise, other than Germany as we said in China following. The US affluent sector is going to take a dive in 2016 as are auto sales which have been the strongest sector. Auto sales peak at age fifty four and then drop like a rock nobody’s going to see this coming one.

David Scranton: I’m glad to hear I’m past my peak spending years that’s good news. It’ll be a little easier on me for this point forward. You know,  tell our viewers for just a moment in ‘The Demographic Cliff’, tell them two or three things that they are going to get, that they are going to learn that they can take home to manage their own personal finances in what you and I both perceive to be a much wiser way?

Harry Dent: Well again what we say is we can tell people the key economic trends can impact their life their business their family their investments over the rest of your life time. Long term trends are easy to predict what the stock market’s going to do next week or month is very difficult and I can only guess and I’m really good like October 2002 I say buy stocks here. I can be right maybe two out of three times but long term is different. So demographics is key. We predict inflation on demographics not on monetary, who knows what the Fed’s going to do five-ten years? I know when people are going to enter the workforce and that correlates with inflation by any indicator. We predict the spending: when generations are going to spend more and not any country in the world four to five decades in advance.  So we can tell you for example, 1983 to 2007 was the baby boom, boom and we always said this will be the greatest boom any of us will see in our lifetimes because the next generation is nowhere near as steep or does not go as high. The next great boom in the world we look at the merging world. India is the next big thing almost guaranteed unless they just totally screw it up politically and they’re moving in the right direction for once. China is not going to see the same boom they saw. India’s going to be the one large country it’s going to grow and Southeast Asia and India and that part of the world is going to be the center of the world for the next decade

David Scranton: So when I look at this just in the last sixty seconds or so we have today you know first of all it sounds like you’re saying, don’t run out in and buy the new home by things today because we’re in a deflationary cycle. Cash might very well be king at some point down the road, correct? Great, and sounds like you’re also saying that as far as the stock market is concerned be careful. At least that bare minimum have one finger on the trigger because there is another major drop whether 2016, ’17 or ’18. We don’t want to get pinned down you’re too smart for that I get that on the time frame. But at bare minimum, to warn our viewers of the fact that you need to be careful about the stocks you hold and especially it seems to me if you need your money in the next ten years or so you want to be really cautious and have one finger on the trigger and not get greedy because the old saying: ‘pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered’, right?

Harry Dent: Exactly cash and cash flow are kings and what I call the winner deflationary season. None of us has seen that. The last one was the 30’s, so people don’t understand. Asset allocation doesn’t work. In the winter season when all bubbles burst except the safest bonds and principal place and also bubbles when they burst, we just saw it in China and we saw it in 1929 40 percent down 42 percent down in the first two and a half months, half the whole 80 percent move was made the first two and a half months. You’re better to get out a little early and give up that last five percent than to wait until it’s obvious because bubbles burst that much faster than they build.

David Scranton: That’s perfect. You heard it straight from the mouth of Harry Dent the author of ‘The Demographic Cliff’. We’ll be right back.

 Marti Johnson: Well Dave, we’ve heard a good deal today about how The Income Generation and everyone for that matter has been affected by low interest rates. And we’ve heard from economist, Harry Dent with his forecast of the stock market and shifts in spending patterns. I’m going to share an in-depth look at the stock market overall and include important lessons of stock market history. I found that although people talk about stocks as investments and the television dial is full of talk about where stocks are trading right now, and as Harry Dent just explained, where they think they’re going and why? But I’d like to back up and fill in a possible gap, explaining how the stock market began. And then the two hundred years of American history to explore what brought us to where we are today and what we can learn from history and the history of this powerful market.

Although historic returns of the stock market can be calculated over different periods with different baskets of stocks, the numbers generally fall between seven and ten percent. In fact, a sound income strategies analysts calculated the S&P from 1900 to year end 2015, to have returned a staggering nine point seventy seven percent. This summer by itself, far exceeds inflation during that period would be considered great today but there’s more to it than that. Now let me give you an example. If for instance, I was talking with Dave about both our busy schedules, our out of town food choices, our exercise routines and what we found out is that Dave and I together run an average of ten miles a week. That sounds great but it might not be the real story, not the full story. This is only partial disclosure. To tell the entire story the fact is, what we actually do is I run twenty miles a week and David doesn’t run at all. I mention this because statistics can be deceiving.  The picture you may have drawn is that, we both run ten miles a week and not that I’m lacing up my running shoes and running out the door three times a week to jog six or seven miles while David has his nose buried in the Financial Times. All this ties in nicely to our stock market discussion because there are the same mistaken perceptions by many when they hear the stock market returns nine point seventy seven percent. In fact, there are investment salespeople who practice similar partial disclosure when they allow people to believe that market returns are reliable or consistent.  The truth is much more challenging for investors especially those looking to live off their income. The truth, is you don’t have to be a stock market analyst to recognize that there are extended periods over time and in our lives when the stock market tracks upward well above the nine plus percent pace and periods when it tracks down or oscillates with no gain at all.  For investors looking to live off their investment income in the near future this can be a recipe for disaster. So let’s see why. The chart you’re looking at, represents the period from1899 to 1921 in US stock market prices in history. This was a twenty two year period of what’s commonly referred to as a bear cycle or one which does not grow. Unlike a hibernating barrel however, you can see that this zero growth period experienced periods of large games and periods of large losses within but in the end they cancel out each other and they all return to zero. The good and bad years negated each other no value gained and many investment opportunities lost.

The following eight year stretch from 1921 to 1929, was the second best period the US has ever seen by increase stock market valuations. That period of storing higher returns ended abruptly in 1929, with the stock market crashed and the beginning of the Great Depression. From 1929 through 1954 stocks followed a pattern much like the1899 to 1921 period. Volatility that included prices rising and then falling. The result was, investors in the market during that period endured rollercoaster like conditions at a ride that left them right where they started price wise. We then entered another long period of stock market growth and what David likes to refer to as anticipated and repeated cycles. Now that period was 1954 to 1966, a one dollar investment in1954 would have grown to five dollars by 1966. For investors who decided to jump in at this point1966 to try to get almost ten percent average growth they bought in, while the Dow industrials were at one thousand. Time passed and in 1982 they were still at one thousand.

During this period there were some steep sell offs followed by periods of growth because as other bearish periods there were periods of growth and decline within the bear cycle. The good and bad years again negated each other resulting in zero growth. The longer cycles are referred to as secular bull and bear cycles within the secular cycles the volatility includes the rallies and the sell offs or bullish and bearish periods. In 1982 after almost seventeen years of zero growth a long pattern gave investors eighteen years of growth in U.S. stock markets through the turn of the century. This is the best bull market we’ve ever had from1982 to 2000, the Dow went from one thousand to almost twelve thousand which brought us of course through the 1990’s when it seemed like everyone invested. And if you weren’t invested you were sometimes shamed for being too conservative. This period was the new champion, in terms of market growth the best Bull Run for America occurred right up to the end of the century. Well that was fifteen years ago and since 2000, we’ve had significant volatility including the market cutting itself in half twice and then recovering each time. Toward the end of these periods’ bull or bear many investors became convinced this time it’s different this time the current direction is going to hold. So the question investors are faced with is, is it possible? This is the first time in nearly two hundred years of history that the stock market has already completely recovered and can keep marching upward. Of course, anything is possible. Kansas City was able to win the World Series but I wouldn’t bet they’ll do it year after year now that would be highly unlikely.

David Scranton: Since 2008 most people have had the sense that economy, both here and abroad, has not quite gotten back to full acceleration yet. Although most people feel a bit more comfortable about their personal situations and the economic reports on jobs and consumer confidence confirm that we’re in better shape now than we were then. Closer to home, our neighbor or possibly our son or daughter who’s been unemployed for a long time now were back to work. Although they probably don’t have the income or benefits that they’re used to. There still seems to be this feeling of overall sluggishness in the economy. In fact, I like in today’s economy and that over the last few years to the cars of the mid 1970’s. You might recall the Ford Mustang2 came out in the 1974 and it was supposed to be the next generation of Ford’s popular pony car. But somehow it was just a shadow of its predecessor. Rather than continue on the path of glory, the Mustang two was described as a Pinto only heavier. The car was in fact built on the frame of the Pinto and even came with the same eighty horsepower four cylinder engine but it weighed much more than the Pinto itself. Ford eventually gave it more engine options and became available with some stickers and decals to dress it up a bit. But underneath it all a few more horsepower and some fast looking pictures of snakes and such didn’t really make up for what was under the hood. In fact, the same could be said today about the U.S. economy. We’ve had a lot of economic and answers and add-ons over the last few years. Some of these include interest rates that approximated zero as well as quantitative easing worth trillions. These were quickly bolted on to what still feels like an underpowered economy encumbered by its own weight. Janet Yellen and those before her, have tried all they could do to add spark but most still feel that around every corner we just may stall. Now she shouldn’t feel bad about this simply because just like that second generation Mustang, even the cast of Charlie’s Angels and Farrah Fawcett, couldn’t do much to breathe life into this poor design one with an insurmountable drag.

And it may not be the Fed’s fault. We heard from Harry Dent tonight and he suggests that there isn’t much that can be done to alter today’s economic pace. In fact, we all got a lot of great insight from Harry. Overall, he says cash and cash flow are king today in this what he calls the winter deflationary season. Economy is fighting both demographic trends which it has very little say about and debt trends which will quickly unwind. As long as the current direction is maintained the Fed and the rest of Washington can supercharge the economy all they want it just can’t go much faster than it is going right now.

So I want to take this opportunity to thank Harry Dent for coming on and sharing his insights. To get your copy of his book ‘The Demographic Cliff: how to survive and prosper in the great deflation’, go to Harry Dent.com. It’s a great read one you want to keep handy as you consider your portfolio as well as other assets. Now after you’ve finished on Harry’s site, head over to theincomegeneration.com. Tell us a bit more about yourself and how you liked the program. We’re going to be selecting one of our viewers to receive this die cast 1976 Cobra 2, a scale model of the car driven by Farrah Fawcett on the popular T.V. show, Charlie’s Angels. That’s right we’re giving away a model car, eat your heart out Oprah. Next week we’ll be welcoming to The Income Generation market analyst, Tobin Smith.

Tobin Smith: Because they were in a transformational event this whole fracking world the United States and people who have visions of sugarplums in their head and said: My gosh we’re going to be going from nine million barrels a day to twenty million barrels in the United States we’ve got to build every pipeline we possibly can. Well guess what? It’s a fickle business the factor something transforms too fast. And the faster something saturates So whether.

David Scranton: Now you may remember Tobin from his thirteen years as anchor and contributor to the Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network. Now Tobin is C.E.O. of a unique investor relations organization called The Next Big Thing. Together we’ll explore industries that are set to take off and change the way things are being done today. Tobin is always full of surprises so there’s no telling if he’ll be talking to us about microsatellites, three D. Printing, smokeless cigarettes or smart fabrics for men’s underwear. I promise it will be in enlightening. We’re also going to call upon his background as an analyst to discuss the perils of continued low interest rates in the economy. Finally, I’d like to thank Marti Johnson for her insightful report. We look forward to hearing from you again next week. You know we’re all shaped by what surrounds us and sometimes it’s difficult to step back and to see where we are what path we’re following and whether or not it still makes sense or if it ever makes sense at all. This includes investing strategies throughout our lives. I put together a special report for you, The Income Generation, to help you evaluate which path you’re on where you should be heading and whether your current direction could safely get you there. The report is being given away to my viewers. So go to theincomegeneration.com now and sign up for your special report written help you invest for retirement with your purpose in mind. I’m David Scranton, you’ve been watching The Income Generation and we’ll see you all again next week.

Right now log on to theincomegeneration.com. That’s the incomegeneration.com then download your free special report detailing why mutual funds actually hurt investors, where to invest now that best suits your purpose, what Wall Street wants you to believe and how to give yourself a raise. And while you’re there, don’t forget to enter for a chance to win the Mustang as well, that’s the model car that was featured on today’s show. Why cross your fingers and hope for growth when you can read this insightful three reports from Sound Income Strategies? Simply log on to theincomegeneration.com. That’s theincomegeneration.com and then download your free report right now.

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