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massielandnetwork · 3 years ago

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Thriving in an Economic Bubble during Anarchy

12. The Christian Succession – A Tipping Point?

The official results of the November “election” set our country on course to intense crises which are becoming increasingly obvious. To those of us that understand how the American economy works the official results were especially agonizing because we realized the horrendous outcome ahead. In his book entitled “Tipping Point”, Malcolm Gladwell describes how “overnight successes” result from a focused effort over a long period of time that become visible only when they finally reach their tipping point and “succeed”. Some of his examples took 20 years to “arrive”.

We saw an example of that on Sunday, August 15 when Afghanistan fell to the Taliban led by a muslim terrorist Obama released from Guantanamo Bay prison six years ago. I am not sure which one is laughing at Americans more, the muslim terrorists or Obama. What the fall of Afghanistan revealed about the Demented Marxists (DMs) is a singularly important milestone.

Another singularly important milestone was disclosed on Wednesday, August 18, when the minutes of the July meeting of The Fed revealed a high likelihood that in September, they may announce the tapering of Quantitative Easing (QE) starting the end of this year. QE is The Fed buying our government debt and mortgages to stimulate our economy by forcing interest rates to be low. Tapering the QE will result in higher interest rates especially mortgages.

Business prospers when there is certainty but since March 2020 the business community has faced a constant steam of crises. One can trace these crises to our leaders who thought that prosperity and world peace would come from shipping American manufacturing to China. Cheered by PhD’s and other “experts” who had no real-world experience, they eliminated our manufacturing base with no regard for destroying middle class jobs or our becoming dependent on a self-proclaimed enemy. The investment bankers that hollowed out America probably made huge contributions to those politicians. President Xi of China must belly laugh when he thinks about America, his vassal, pursuing self-destruction. Trump was reversing that self destruction.

The Johnson Report in 2020 established that Biden and many of our elected and appointed officials became wealthy on government salaries by catering to the Chinese. The Chinese bought influence with our colleges and universities via Confucius Centers and other “contributions”. Is selling our country to our enemy treason? Fauci used American taxpayer dollars to fund the Wuhan Bioweapon lab and the “gain of function” research into the bat virus thus paying the Chinese to build their bioweapon they unleashed in 2019. Did he buy stock in the vaccine companies? Why is he still a U. S. government employee? Do we have a shortage of traitors so we keep them? Perhaps we have a surplus so we could send some to China.

It is critical to understand how the singularly important events listed above will impact the American economy and therefore the land market. Capitalism allocates scarce resources by price. A major factor in that allocation process is the cost of money called interest rates. The Fed has been buying 10-year Treasuries because that interest rate is the base on which mortgages are calculated. New housing construction influences activity in about one-third of the total economy. That is huge and why The Fed uses new homes construction to revive our economy. The spread between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury is normally about 1.5% per annum so if the 10-year Treasury is at 3% then mortgages will be at least 4.5%, perhaps higher if interest rates are rising.

The impact of mortgage rates is easiest to see in the housing market but the impact is the same across all real estate. In this illustration we will only focus on the interest component of a monthly home loan. If a homebuyer can afford to pay $1,000 per month ($12,000 per year) in interest for a home.

a. At a mortgage interest rate of 3%, our homebuyer can borrow $400,000.

b. But if mortgage interest rates increase to 4% our home buyer can borrow $300,000.

c. That is a reduction of 25% in buying power.

d. The result is the home buyer either buys a smaller home or continues to rent until they can afford to pay $16,000 per year for that $400,000 home and the market slows.

Now factor in that the artificially low interest rates have caused home prices to soar and construction costs to soar (the market was allocating scarce resources). Based on exploding sales, homebuilders have made commitments for land, material, and staff to meet a superheated demand. What happens when demand falls because interest rates have risen taking some of the potential homebuyers out of the market? PAIN.

That pain is shared across the board of the homebuilding industry including lot prices. A reduction in lot prices will mean the value of land that can be developed into residential lots also will decline. Now multiply this across the entire real estate market distorted by the pandemic shutdown. We have just defined a TOTALLY UGLY real estate market.

The historic response of the Fed to an ugly real estate market is to reduce interest rates to stimulate demand. But QE and how the federal government has piled stimulus bills on top of stimulus bills has resulted in rising inflation and massive increases in our national debt. Per one analysis at today’s historic low interest rates the annual cost to service our national debt is approximately $500 Bn. If The Fed raises interest rates to an historically normal level, the cost of servicing the debt triples to an estimated 1.5 Tn. If our economy GDP is $22 Tn and historically the federal rate receipts are 20% of the GDP, then the nation revenue will be $4.4 Tn.

But Congress has not balanced the federal budget with $4.4 Tn revenue and $500 Bn in interest expense. What programs will get cut $1 Tn to balance the budget at normal interest rates? The DMs response is that Modern Monetary Theory says that the amount of national debt does not matter. Reality is that this is the same group of academics and idiots just lost Afghanistan, gave our self-proclaimed enemy massive amounts of weapons paid for by the American Taxpayers, not to mention a new base for terrorism against us, subjugated millions of Afghanis to the rule of thugs, and cannot figure out how to get Americans out of harm’s way so they are going to abandon them. Is there anything in this paragraph that gives you confidence in Biden or the DMs in Congress and our bureaucracy regarding their opinion on anything?

Remember my joke two weeks ago about the two truckers, Bob and Billy, with Bob waking up Billy because Billy “ain’t never seen a wreck like this one”. You need to wake up Billy because the highest probability is the next several years will be an historic economic period that will be the topic of many future history and economic PhD dissertations. This wreck will be epic.

Now let us add to this equation the debacle in Afghanistan. Biden and the Elites/DMs running our country have just confirmed that they only care about themselves. They got wealthy shipping our manufacturing base to China, making us dependent on OPEC oil, obtaining campaign contributions to their PACs from groups “Paying so they could Play” in China, not to mention financial benefits given to their spouses and family members. To the Biden and the Elites/DM, we American taxpayers are peasants, expendable like the folks in Afghanistan.

Now that the world including the Chinese who own Biden and the DMs have proof including the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Secretary of Defense are all totally incompetent (in a capable organization they would already have been fired), China invading Taiwan is a high probability.

Never fear, guided by their Saul Alinsky/ Rahm Emanuel mantra the DMs continue their “Never waste a crisis” campaign driving us towards higher energy cost, unreliable electricity, higher taxes, “Social Justice” garbage, teaching our children CRT propaganda rather than reading writing and arithmetic, telling all whites they are racist, forcing vaccinations, et al.

What is so frustrating that Trump had us on the right economic path because he cared about every American. The DMs used their propaganda mill called the news media and their Obama appointed traitors in the government bureaucracy to steal the election so that they could regain control. Now we get to pay the price – inflation because of the stimulus funded by debt and higher interest rates which will give us a stagnant economy (called Stagflation).

Fortunately, God is in control and empowering the Patriots who are demanding forensic audits of the 2020 elections and all future elections to ensure they are honest. The Cyber Symposium in Sioux Falls last week released a “silver bullet”, that spurred many of the attendees from 47 states to form a group of state legislators to push for full forensic audits around the country including a lone Virginia Republican, Senator Chase. The next Republican legislator you see, ask them about the contract Virginia has with Unisyn Voting Systems which is owned by a business partner of the Chinese Communist Party according WND News. AuditVA!

Every portfolio should contain some cash but a great piece of land remains The Best investment long term. Capitalism builds wealth, Marxism/Socialism consumes it in self destruction. Pray for honest and forensic audited elections in the USA. Men make plans, but God ALWAYS wins. Stand with God and support the patriots while replacing the Elites/DMs.

“Therefore, take up the whole armor of God, so that you may be able to withstand on that evil day, and having done everything, to stand firm.”

(Ephesians 6:13) New Revised Standard Version, Oxford University Press)

Stay healthy,

Ned

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takebackthedream · 8 years ago

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Senator Warren Persists, We Persist by Dave Johnson

Sen. Warren was giving a lengthy speech. She had appeared to violate the rule. She was warned. She was given an explanation. Nevertheless, she persisted. – Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell

Raw Power

Republicans — President Donald Trump along with lawmakers in the Senate and the House — have discarded any pretense they might have had of civility and upholding norms, standards and even the rule of law. For them it’s all about gaining raw power and using power to benefit “their side” and to shut down their “enemies.”

These enemies include the free press, the judicial branch, an entire religion, war refugees, an entire political party, the seasoned “establishment” of their own political party and anyone who might get in the way of their use and abuse of power.

We are tumbling down the slippery slope to autocracy. What can we do? We can emulate Sen. Elizabeth Warren and persist as we resist.

Trump Challenges Judicial Authority

Trump repeatedly shows contempt for the judicial branch of our government. Before his election, he tried to discredit the judge who was overseeing the “Trump U” fraud case against him, saying judge Gonzalo Curiel “happens to be, we believe, Mexican.” Trump told CNN’s Jake Tapper that Curiel had an “inherent conflict of interest” because, “he’s a Mexican. We’re building a wall between here and Mexico.” The judge, in fact, was born in Indiana, not Mexico.

Now, in the court battle over Trump’s Muslim-banning immigration restrictions Trump again showed his disrespect for the judiciary. He referred to a “so-called judge” hearing the original case, tweeting, “The opinion of this so-called judge, which essentially takes law-enforcement away from our country, is ridiculous and will be overturned!”

The opinion of this so-called judge, which essentially takes law-enforcement away from our country, is ridiculous and will be overturned!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 4, 2017

Then later, “Just cannot believe a judge would put our country in such peril. If something happens, blame him and court system. People pouring in. Bad!”

Just cannot believe a judge would put our country in such peril. If something happens blame him and court system. People pouring in. Bad!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 5, 2017

Trump has also tried to discredit the federal judges hearing the appeal, saying, “I don’t want to call a court biased, so I won’t call it biased.” He went on to call it biased anyway, saying “Courts seem to be so political and it would be so great for our justice system if they could read a statement and do what’s right.” He impugned the judges involved, saying, “A bad high school student would understand this. Anybody would understand this.” And threatened the idea of respect for an independent judiciary, saying, “But I have to be honest that if these judges wanted to, in my opinion, help the court in terms of respect for the court, they do what they should be doing. It’s so sad.”

In his article headlined President Trump is not-so-subtly threatening the entire American court system, Washington Post reporter Aaron Blake says,

If that isn’t a threat to marshal support against the American court system and fight it politically, I’m not sure what is. Trump is basically saying: That’s a nice reputation you’ve got there. It’d be a shame if something happened to it.

[. . .] [C]omments like the ones Trump made Wednesday at the very least seem geared toward…sending a message that judges…won’t be immune from his political wrath. And when they issue a decision he doesn’t like, Trump is saying, they’re going to pay the same price as a senator who votes the wrong way on a bill.

Warren Silenced in the Senate

In 1986, Coretta Scott King wrote a letter opposing Sessions’ nomination for a federal judgeship. She declared,

Anyone who has used the power of his office as United States Attorney to intimidate and chill the free exercise of the ballot by citizens should not be elevated to our courts. Mr. Sessions has used the awesome powers of his office in a shabby attempt to intimidate and frighten elderly black voters. For this reprehensible conduct, he should not be rewarded with a federal judgeship.

Jeff Sessions went on to become a Republican senator from Alabama instead. On Wednesday evening, his former colleagues voted 52-47 to make him Trump’s attorney general. As is customary in these circumstances, he abstained, voting “present.” The vote split along party lines, with Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, becoming the only member of the minority party to support the nominee by joining with every Republican but Sessions in supporting him.

During the debate over Sessions’ nomination, Warren tried to read King’s 1986 letter. Then this happened:

Republicans silenced the Massachusetts Democrat for reading negative information about the nominee the Senate was debating. Republicans used an obscure rule to silence her, based on the nominee also being a sitting senator.

Silencing Warren is the legislative equivalent to Trump’s challenging authority of judges.

People went on Twitter to ask Senate Republicans to #LetLizSpeak

“Nevertheless, She Persisted”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell later explained why Senate Republicans silenced Sen. Warren. His explanation, “Sen. Warren was giving a lengthy speech. She had appeared to violate the rule. She was warned. She was given an explanation. Nevertheless, she persisted.”

Naturally, Twitter exploded. #ShePersisted and #ShePersists are trending.

Slippery Slope Toward Autocracy

Lawrence Tribe, a prominent constitutional law professor at Harvard University, responded to Warren’s silencing in a series of tweets that compared Trump’s autocratic tendencies with what Warren called her “red-carding,”

When Trump equates our errors with how Putin deals with political opponents, we should reflect on how Sen. Warren’s critique of Jeff Sessions would go down in Putin’s Russia. Then reflect on how McConnell’s outrageous silencing of Warren takes us a dangerous step toward autocracy and a society we won’t recognize unless we stop this scary slide down a very slippery slope.

Again, Warren’s silencing in the Senate was a dangerous step toward autocracy.

In the House, Democrats John Conyers Jr (D-Mich.), Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) and Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) announced Wednesday they are introducing a resolution declaring that each branch of government “deserves the respect of the others,” that “an independent judiciary is fundamental to the checks and balances embodied by the separation of powers, is essential to maintaining respect for the rule of law, and is critical to our constitutional democracy; attacks against the judiciary, as an institution, threaten to weaken public confidence in the courts as a fair and impartial arbiter of the law” and finally that,

Whether or not one agrees with the substance of a particular judicial decision, it is inappropriate for sitting presidents, or other government officials, to engage in ad hominem attacks against a judge, or otherwise place political pressure designed to undermine the independence of that judge, or to erode trust in the entire court system.

Will that get even a single Republican vote in the House? We’ll see. It gets my vote.

Resistance Moves Forward

Trump’s attacks on the judiciary are also on that slippery slope toward autocracy. How do we fight this?

The lesson for us is that we must keep up the resistance. Like Warren, we must persist. The people are on our side. As my colleague Richard Eskow pointed out earlier this week, early polling shows that Americans Like the Resistance a Lot More Than They Like Trump,

For Donald Trump, this has got to hurt: Less than two weeks after his inauguration, the people who took to the streets to protest his policies have outstripped him in popularity.

And, given his rich history of “locker room banter” and other sexist comments, it must be especially humiliating for Trump to know that the biggest mobilizations of protesters who bested him were led by women.

Resistance moves forward.

Senator Warren persists. Now it’s our turn. We will persist as we resist.

#Blog

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massielandnetwork · 3 years ago

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Thriving in an Economic Bubble during Anarchy

7. The Christian Succession – Everything is Bubbling

There are times I wonder if the Demented Marxists (DM) are serious about their opinions or a comedy act. The Bible talks about the foolish becoming obvious. Consider the following:

1. The Biden Administration has announced there are 76 different genders. Anything more than male and female is an example of out of control bureaucrats. Does the DM “Infrastructure Bill” include hiring “gender police”?

2. It wa reported that Eric Dean Wilson, supposedly a graduate student at City University in New York was quoted in a Time magazine article that air conditioning will destroy the planet Earth. Obviously, he is too young to remember life without air conditioning. I consider AC a blessing. If Mr. Wilson wants to sit in a non-air-conditioned domicile, he should feel free to do so. Not me.

3. Have you seen the videos about the crime in California resulting from passage of Proposition 47 entitled “Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act” which reduced the penalties for felony crimes, allows the release of violent criminals, changed some felonies to misdemeanors, and allows thieve to steal up to $950 per day in property without prosecution, and I believe eliminated bail bonding. In broad daylight thieves are walking off with armfuls and containers full of merchandise from stores while the police ignore the calls from the merchants because the police cannot do anything. Eventually the exit of retailers from LA and San Fran etal will increase from a trickle to a flood leaving California cities as retail deserts except for the dope selling on the corner. Now that is Progressive Pride!!!

4. So Black Lives Matter came out in support of Cuba’s oppressive government. Who is surprised? The founders openly claim to be Marxists trained by China. I am not sure which is funnier, the formerly ranked #1 US Womens soccer team openly supporting Black Lives Matter and then getting whipped by the 5th ranked team or all those who got sucked into the whole “Social Justice” faux issue. This is Biblical!

5. Tom Brady tried making a joke with Biden about the faux election. The experience proved that Brady is a great quarterback but a lousy comedienne.

6. 177 days into the DM’s Coup, the Vote Fraud pot is beginning to boil. Texas has joined the increasing parade of states demanding a forensic audit. VoterGA reported significant vote fraud in Fulton County, the home of the suitcase ballots. There were more reports of confirmed vote fraud in Michigan and demands for audits. Trump released a letter from a former U. S. Attorney who said he was ordered by Attorney General Barr NOT to pursue voter fraud in the November 2020 election. Keep watching the Arizona audit. Pray for the patriots in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, …for Patriots across the USA. Where are the Virginia Republicans????

7. This forensic audit demand wave will and should continue. Every election needs to be subjected to a forensic audit. That should not be even a topic of discussion since honest elections are the basis of our society. The only parties against forensic audits are those afraid of what a forensic audit will reveal. This will be an epic show to watch.

In the world of economics, many folks are throwing around terms without any real understanding of them, the AOC approach. She claims to have minored in economics in college but her talking points demonstrate a lack of any real knowledge. Her business experience consists of being behind a bar providing drinks to customers, obviously her Peter Principle.

In a capitalistic society when there is more demand for a good or service than supply, prices increase. The prices will increase until the supply is equal to demand. The increased price attracts investment into producing more of those goods or services resulting in prices for that good or service declining. The price declines until the producers have satisfied the last profitable customer (marginal revenue). When prices go below the cost of producing the good or service, production is cut back so that prices will increase to the level at which they make a profit again. Otherwise, the producers go bankrupt. Sometimes bankruptcy is a part of getting price back up by eliminating producers.

This can be seen in the lumber market this spring. Demand for lumber surged above supply, prices soared distorted by speculation. Once supply and demand were back in balance the price declined as more supply arrived to the market. Timberland owners howled that the price they received from selling timber did not participate in the lumber bubble. The bubble simply did not endure long enough to affect the downstream market. The bubble will have a lingering effect on the retail price of lumber (Home Depot, Lowes, etc.) and hence buyers of homes, construction projects until the bubble priced lumber is consumed.

The lumber retailers will work off their bubble price inventory but then the price will be determined by their desire to increase how rapidly they can turn their inventory. A lower price and their inventory will turn faster. All of this is the normal functioning of capitalism. This is the reason The Fed believes the price increases will be transitory.

Inflation is different than the price for a good increasing due to demand being in excess of supply which entices more production. When the consumer experiences inflation, they are actually experiencing a devaluation of their currency. Increased production is not going to address the increase in price.

There are similarities between hyperinflation in Germany in 1918 – 1923 and the high inflation in USA in the late 1970’s when Carter was President. In both cases the central banks were making money readily available so that everyone had money to spend. Incomes rose and the interest paid to savers was below the rate of inflation so anyone saving money in a bank account looked foolish. Therefore, the consumers bought anything and everything. Retail sales were impressive. Prices for good rose because demand seemed to exceed supply constantly. The stock market soared. But the buying power of the currency actually constantly declined. Is this sounding familiar? Look around.

Over the last week, every conversation with builders and contractors had the same theme – prices are rising consistently. Everyone is trying to handle business equal to 150% of their capacity. Some of the increases are due to distorted markets – demand surging faster than supply can be created coming off the shutdown. Some prices are increasing because the manufactures feel they have “pricing power”.

What The Fed is ignoring is that the labor market is constrained by the increased federal unemployment so increasing productivity is very difficult. The federal unemployment payments are due to phase out in September. At the same time, the Demented Marxists (DM) want to shove through more stimulus euphemistically called “infrastructure” but actually is just the DM’s not wanting to waste a crisis in order to pursue their Marxist agenda. An over stimulated economy with money everywhere chasing everything because there is no incentive to hold cash is a recipe for inflation. That accurately describes the situation here in the USA today.

Expensive and unreliable electricity, tax increases, higher interest rates, higher energy prices, the DM’s focus on culture wars not supported by the vast majority of Americans, are all indications of miserably led country with an economy so out of balance as to be wobbly. The non-infrastructure Infrastructure Deal will only increase inflation and bubbles will continue to occur and burst. Bubbles always burst and when this one blows it will redefine the word “Ugly”.

A portfolio must have some cash but a great piece of land remains The Best investment long term. Capitalism builds wealth, Marxism/Socialism consumes it in self destruction. Pray for a return to honest and audited elections in the USA. God is in control. Men make plans, but God ALWAYS wins.

“We do not want you to be unaware, brothers and sisters, of the affliction we experienced in Asia; for we were so utterly unbearably crushed that we despaired of life itself. Indeed, we felt that we had received the sentence of death so that we would reply not on ourselves but on God who raises the dead. He who rescued us from so deadly a peril will continue to rescue us; on him we have set our hope that he will rescue us again,”

(2 Corinthians 1: 8-10) New Revised Standard Version, Oxford University Press)

Stay healthy,

Ned

July 21, 2021

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