#housing sector’s stability - poll

[mariacallous]

Mexico will elect a new president on June 2. For the first time in the country’s history, the two leading candidates are women: Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez. Sheinbaum represents outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena party, and Gálvez heads up a broad opposition coalition. Most polls predict a resounding victory for Sheinbaum, who benefits from López Obrador’s popularity and party machine.

On March 22, Sheinbaum presented her economic agenda before Mexico’s business leadership in the city of Monterrey, where Tesla plans to build an electric vehicle plant. Sheinbaum hopes to take advantage of the opportunities offered by U.S. nearshoring efforts; Mexico has emerged as an attractive destination for U.S. companies seeking to relocate their supply chains closer to home. She has also proposed creating 10 so-called development poles throughout Mexico, which would see regions specialize in sectors such as tourism, technological innovation, and renewable energy while also satisfying various sociocultural development goals.

To achieve her ambitious economic objectives, if elected, Sheinbaum must ensure that Mexico has a stable, growing energy supply. That is easier said than done, given López Obrador’s controversial steps to undo reforms that had liberalized the country’s energy sector to attract private investment and meet growing electricity and fuel demands. Although Sheinbaum has defended López Obrador’s energy policy so far, she is more pragmatic and less ideological than he is—and may be open to policy change.

Sheinbaum cannot guarantee Mexico’s energy stability if she does not regain the trust of private investors that was shattered under López Obrador. Failing to do so would not only be detrimental for the grid but could also jeopardize Mexico’s commitments under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and Paris Agreement—and derail any Mexican hopes of becoming a nearshoring haven. If former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to the White House in January 2025, failing to comply with USMCA could spell outright trouble for the U.S.-Mexico relationship.

In 2013, a constitutional reform ended the Mexican government’s monopoly control of the energy sector. For the first time, state-owned oil company Pemex and power utility CFE had to compete against private firms on a regulated market. But since the first days of his administration, in 2018, López Obrador has staked his presidency on reversing the reform—creating legal uncertainty that has left many investors skeptical of Mexico.

In 2021, López Obrador amended regulatory laws to privilege Pemex and CFE over private firms in their respective markets. In the petroleum sector, the government raised the requirements for private companies to maintain their fuel import and distribution permits. In the power sector, CFE would have priority over other firms in dispatching electricity. Previously, power had been routed based on cost competitiveness, which was cheaper and more efficient, as it was supplied by many private utilities. By giving CFE the upper hand, Mexico fell back on the public utility’s coal-fired and other petroleum-fired plants.

López Obrador also called for a review of all existing electricity contracts with private firms. In 2022 CFE supplied just over 41 percent of Mexico’s total demand; private utilities generated nearly all the rest. The president sought to impose a long-term market share for CFE at 54 percent. He canceled auctions to increase power generation from renewable energies, alleging the events had not been well planned.

López Obrador’s moves to take control of the energy sector strained Mexico’s investment climate, generating a broad opposition bloc of national and international companies, opposition political parties, nongovernmental organizations, and environmental advocates who sought to decarbonize Mexico’s economy. All of these groups saw their varied interests under threat. Several companies called for injunctions to invalidate the amended legislation, and Mexico’s Federal Economic Competition Commission asked the Supreme Court to rule on the amendments’ constitutionality.

Only this year did the court judge that the reforms to the electricity sector were unconstitutional, saying they disrupted competition policies and market regulations. However, the court upheld the government’s control over the petroleum industry. Altogether, the yearslong ordeal and legal limbo strained Mexico’s investment climate.

If Sheinbaum is serious about launching her proposed 10 poles, she must recognize that Mexico will not be able to expand and modernize its energy infrastructure under the primacy of two state companies.

Pemex has failed to make Mexico energy self-sufficient; around 70 percent of the country’s natural gas consumption is imported from the United States, and 64 percent of gasoline consumption and 60 percent of diesel mainly come from refineries also located in the United States. The Dos Bocas refinery, one of López Obrador’s flagship projects, is not yet online and has cost much more than what was originally budgeted, putting pressure on Pemex’s finances. The state-owned company’s external debt exceeds $100 billion. CFE, for its part, has claimed that it has close to 54 percent of the electricity market share after a government-led confrontation with Iberdrola, a Spanish electric utility that had 28 plants in Mexico. In April 2023, the government announced it would acquire 13 of Iberdrola’s plants via a trust called Mexico Infrastructure Partners; the sale was finalized in February.

Canada and the United States have doubts about whether a Sheinbaum administration would allow international investors to participate in Mexico’s energy industry, as is stipulated by USMCA. Chapters 14 and 22 of the trilateral agreement explicitly protect the corporate rights of investors and prohibit discriminatory treatment of a state company in its commercial relations with private companies. In mid-2022, in response to López Obrador’s legislative amendments, U.S. and Canadian trade representatives began conversations with the Mexican government on the matter.

If Sheinbaum continues favoring Pemex and CFE over private utilities, as she has said she would do as president, she could risk a panel dispute under USMCA. That could result in severe trade sanctions on Mexico. Sheinbaum likely also won’t be able to take advantage of U.S. nearshoring opportunities if she cannot reaffirm her commitments to the treaty. (The acid test will come in 2026, when USMCA is set to undergo a general review by all three participating countries.)

USMCA is not the only major international agreement to which Mexico is beholden. The country is also a state party to the Paris Agreement and has committed to generating 35 percent of its electricity from clean sources by this year. But Mexico has not yet managed to achieve this goal, even after López Obrador’s government announced new climate plans at the 2022 United Nations climate conference in Egypt.

To keep Mexico on track to meet its climate commitments, Sheinbaum would have to adopt more green energy sources. She cannot do so without reviving long-term electricity auctions to attract investors who are capable of increasing Mexico’s renewables supply at competitive prices.

Sheinbaum’s success may depend in part on who wins the U.S. presidential race. If Joe Biden is reelected, the two leaders will need to jointly address tricky shared problems such as migration management and drug trafficking. But Sheinbaum’s industrial project could fit neatly within the framework of Biden’s flagship Inflation Reduction Act as well as the CHIPS and Science Act, both of which promote a green economic agenda and boost nearshoring efforts. A second Trump administration would be a different story.

During his presidency, Trump forced both Mexico and Canada to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement and negotiate its successor, USMCA. The talks did not occur in a vacuum—Trump sought to pressure Mexico to end illegal migration to the United States and build a wall on the two countries’ shared border. Trump also imposed taxes on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico, citing national security concerns. He warned that he would withdraw from USMCA negotiations if the treaty did not accommodate his interests, which included establishing a 16-year sunset clause in the agreement and instituting general review periods every six years.

In May 2019, Trump threatened to impose a 5 percent tariff on total imports from Mexico that could rise to 25 percent if the Mexican government did not stop the illegal entry of Central American migrants at Mexico’s southern border. The diktat forced López Obrador to mobilize the Mexican military at its border with Guatemala, signaling Trump’s leverage over the Mexican leader.

If Trump returns to the White House, tensions with Mexico are likely to escalate over migration, illegal drug trafficking, and—above all—trade relations with China. Beijing has noted Sheinbaum’s industrial goals and is interested in increasing its commercial and investment ventures in Mexico.

China aims not only to supply Mexico’s internal market with manufacturing but also to export to the United States, thereby circumventing tariffs that have been in place since the Trump administration. If this occurs, Trump would likely react belligerently at the USMCA revision table in 2026, alleging, among other things, that the agreement harms U.S. interests by allowing Chinese strategic supplies to leak into the United States from Mexico. Trump could even threaten to leave the agreement if Mexico does not impose tariffs and bans on China similar to those already imposed by Washington.

Canceling USMCA is a red line that neither Sheinbaum nor Trump should cross. If that happens, neither country will see its nearshoring agenda realized.

[influencermagazineuk]

China's Consumer Price Growth Declines Ahead of Communist Party Economic Meeting

China's consumer price growth decelerated in June while factory prices eased but remained in deflationary territory, raising hopes for stronger economic stimulus measures at an upcoming Communist Party policy meeting. According to official data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Wednesday, consumer prices rose by 0.2% year-on-year in June, down from a 0.3% increase in May and below the 0.4% growth forecasted by a Bloomberg poll of analysts. The producer price index fell by 0.8% year-on-year last month, an improvement from May's 1.4% contraction. Although the factory gate price index has strengthened over the past three months and met analysts' expectations, the data highlights ongoing concerns about weak consumer spending in the world's second-largest economy. “The risk of deflation has not faded in China,” noted Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, pointing to continued weak domestic demand. Falling food costs significantly impacted consumer prices. Fresh vegetable prices dropped by 7.3% year-on-year in June, while fruit prices fell by 8.7% and beef prices declined by 13.4%. Low business confidence has left Beijing heavily reliant on exports and industrial output to drive economic growth. However, this strategy is becoming less viable as trade partners, including the EU and the US, push back against a surge of cheap goods, accusing China of dumping. The EU recently imposed new import tariffs of up to 38% on Chinese electric vehicles. Even developing countries with typically favorable trade relations with China, such as Mexico and Brazil, have imposed new levies on Chinese steel products. This growing global backlash has prompted Beijing's policymakers to explore alternative ways to support the economy, which is also hindered by a prolonged property sector slowdown. Ahead of the Chinese Communist Party’s third plenum, a key economic policy meeting scheduled for next week, Premier Li Qiang has been conducting a listening tour to gather input from Chinese economists, entrepreneurs, and foreign businesses. However, experts argue that Beijing's current policies have not been sufficient to stabilize economic growth. A government fund to purchase unsold housing inventory has not stopped the decline in real estate prices, and a “trade-in” program for home appliances and other durable goods has had limited success due to restrictive conditions. Top Chinese economists are optimistic that President Xi Jinping will introduce new policies at the upcoming plenum to boost domestic demand, including enhancing the social safety net as part of his "common prosperity" initiative. Analysts suggest that anticipated rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, potentially as early as September, would give the People’s Bank of China more leeway to loosen monetary policy without putting pressure on the currency. “We believe real interest rates are too high given the current state of the economy and think that the economy would benefit more from rate cuts,” said Lynn Song, chief China economist at ING. Read the full article

[indiawiki]

Navigating India's Future : Why Narendra Modi Should Lead Again Kindle Edition by Atul Pagyal (Author)

s India gears up for the 2024 elections, the case for Narendra Modi's reelection rests on his transformative leadership, decisive governance, and the remarkable progress achieved during his tenure.

Economic Growth and Development:

Narendra Modi's tenure has witnessed substantial economic growth and structural reforms. Initiatives like the Goods and Services Tax (GST), Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), and Atmanirbhar Bharat have spurred investment, job creation, and economic development across sectors.

Infrastructure Development and Connectivity:

The Modi government's emphasis on infrastructure development has led to significant improvements in connectivity and mobility. Projects like Bharatmala Pariyojana, Sagarmala Programme, and Digital India have revolutionized India's infrastructure landscape, fostering economic growth and development.

Social Welfare and Inclusive Development:

The government's focus on social welfare and inclusive development is evident through schemes like Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), Ayushman Bharat, and Swachh Bharat Abhiyan. These initiatives have addressed critical needs such as financial inclusion, healthcare, sanitation, and affordable housing.

National Security and Defense:

A proactive approach to national security and defense under Modi's leadership has strengthened India's defense capabilities and ensured border security. Modernization of armed forces and effective counter-terrorism measures have bolstered national security.

Foreign Policy and Global Diplomacy:

Under Modi's leadership, India's foreign policy has seen a significant transformation, characterized by proactive diplomacy and assertive engagement. The "Neighbourhood First" policy and Act East Policy demonstrate India's commitment to fostering regional stability and strengthening ties with neighbouring and Southeast Asian countries.

Example: Release of Indian Ex-Navy Officers from Qatar:

A notable success of India's diplomatic efforts was the release of Indian ex-Navy officers from Qatar in 2020. Through diplomatic negotiations led by the Ministry of External Affairs and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's personal intervention, the officers were released, showcasing India's diplomatic prowess.

Strategic Neighbourhood Policy:

Modi's foreign policy prioritizes strengthening ties with neighbouring countries through initiatives like the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Initiative and development projects in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Maldives.

Act East Policy:

Building upon the Look East Policy, the Act East Policy aims to deepen economic and strategic relations with Southeast Asian countries through enhanced connectivity and increased trade ties.

As India heads towards the polls, Narendra Modi's leadership and vision for inclusive growth and development continue to resonate with the electorate, positioning him as a strong contender for reelection.

[thelaxmigroup]

Dream Home or Investment Asset? What to Choose?

It’s well known that the economy is recovering from the pandemic, and like many other sectors, the real estate industry has also been negatively impacted. However, as time has gone on and things have improved, the sector has experienced minor progress.

As individuals, we still strongly believe that buying a home is equivalent to reaching a significant life milestone. This elevates the real estate industry to the top tier of global investment opportunities.

Purchasing a home has intangible advantages like security, tranquilly, and pride in ownership. These are the critical justifications for why people invest in the real estate market. Today, there are many such real estate projects in Mumbai where you can find your dream home. One such project is Laxmi Raajvilas by The Laxmi Group. It provides you an investment opportunity as well since the region, Malad in Mumbai is still developing and there is a huge possibility of price appreciation in the near future.

In comparison to other investment possibilities like land, the stock market, mutual funds, etc., real estate may be thought of as one of the most reliable and profitable choices given the current market trends. So, according to a number of polls undertaken by property experts, more than 50% of investors want to go back into the real estate business in the post-COVID-19 period.

The advantages of buying your ideal house over other investment possibilities will be covered in this essay and how it can yield substantial benefits over the long term.

Here are some beneficial things to think about while purchasing a home:

Price Appreciation As many other industries throughout the world were, real estate was also badly impacted. However, with time, everything is returning to normal. One can gain significantly over time from price appreciation by investing in the present market. If one buys a property in a developing area, the value of that residence is likely to increase manyfold over time due to the booming market.

Tax advantages If you own your ideal house, you may be eligible for a tax deduction of up to two lakh rupees. Depending on your interest, you may be able to receive a tax advantage that would lower your

home’s interest rate. If you invest in a ready-to-move property, you are eligible for tax savings of up to 2 lakh rupees and a reduction in your interest rate under Section 24 of the IT Act.

Easy and affordable house loans The RBI has significantly lowered repo rates after the COVID-19 epidemic. These are some of the lowest repo rates, which caused the interest rates on house loans to drop to the lowest level of 7%. For investors looking for successful investments, this is a fantastic chance. With interest rates this low, you may save a lot of money on your investment compared to only a year ago

when house loans were about 8–9% annually.

Secure and without risk Purchasing a residential property is seen to be one of the most reliable investment opportunities given the present market conditions. You can always depend on receiving your investment returns eventually. There are several opportunities in the industry right now. Due to the extremely cheap property prices in the present market, there is a tonne of room for profit. It is anticipated that the real estate market would exhibit an increasing trend once the economy returns to stability.

Attractive Deals The market is unstable due to the pandemic, therefore the developers are making attractive offers to attract attention to their projects. There is no better time to purchase than right now, with loan rates at historic lows and developers providing tempting discounts.

Create a source of reliable income Purchasing a property can give the purchasers a source of reliable income. In contrast to other investment opportunities, leasing the property gives you the chance to establish a reliable and stable source of income.

Long-term returns on investments might be greater when they are made in your ideal house. With time, it could also provide you with a sense of security. The real estate market may maximise the returns on your investments if you are patient enough. It is a course of action that

might produce viable possibilities for the future. Along with safer assets like real estate and other market-driven investment options, one may diversify their portfolio.

With so many benefits and facilities available, this is surely the right time to buy your dream home and also consider it your investment asset. If you are planning to buy a lavish flat in Mumbai, you can check out our projects on the website. We provide all types of spacious 1, 2, 3 & 4 BHK flats in Malad, Goregaon and other prime areas in Mumbai.

[newstfionline]

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Poll: Learning setbacks a top concern for parents (AP) Parents across the U.S. are conflicted about reopening schools. Most are at least somewhat worried that a return to the classroom will lead to more coronavirus cases, but there’s an even deeper fear that their children are falling behind in school while at home. Sixty-nine percent of parents are at least somewhat concerned that their children will face setbacks in school because of the coronavirus pandemic, including 42% who say they’re very or extremely worried about it, according to a new poll from The University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Nearly as many, 64%, say they are at least somewhat concerned that in-person instruction will lead to more people being infected, but it’s only 33% who say they are very or extremely worried about the risk. That tension reflects the fears of a nation on the cusp of a widespread return to classroom teaching. More than a year after the pandemic started, more schools are now opening their doors to students or plan to do so in coming weeks.

Home school (US Census Bureau/Numlock) Since 2012, the rate of homeschooling in the United States has been pretty steady at about 3.3 percent. Then the pandemic hit, and according to the U.S. Census during the period late April to early May 2020, roughly 5.4 percent of households with children reported homeschooling. To be clear this isn’t doing school at home—they adjusted for that—it’s yank-the-kids-out-of-the-district homeschooling. By fall, that number was 11.1 percent of households opting for true homeschooling rather than virtual learning through school.

Damage from virus: Utility bills overwhelm some households (AP) Millions of U.S. households are facing heavy past-due utility bills, which have escalated in the year since the pandemic forced Americans hunkered down at home to consume more power. And now, government moratoriums that for months had barred utilities from turning off the power of their delinquent customers are starting to expire in most states. As result, up to 37 million customers—representing nearly one-third of all households—will soon have to reckon with their overdue power bills at a time when many of them are struggling with lost jobs or income. A study done by Arcadia, which runs a service that helps households lower utility bills, found that the average past-due amount by those in its network was roughly $850.

Is bad news the only kind? (NYT) Bruce Sacerdote, an economics professor at Dartmouth College, noticed something last year about the Covid-19 television coverage that he was watching on CNN and PBS. It almost always seemed negative, regardless of what was he seeing in the data or hearing from scientists he knew. When Covid cases were rising in the U.S., the news coverage emphasized the increase. When cases were falling, the coverage instead focused on those places where cases were rising. And when vaccine research began showing positive results, the coverage downplayed it, as far as Sacerdote could tell. But he was not sure whether his perception was correct. To check, he began working with two other researchers, building a database of Covid coverage from every major network, CNN, Fox News, Politico, The New York Times and hundreds of other sources, in the U.S. and overseas.      The results showed that Sacerdote’s instinct had been right. The coverage by U.S. publications with a national audience has been much more negative than coverage by any other source that the researchers analyzed, including scientific journals, major international publications and regional U.S. media. “The most well-read U.S. media are outliers in terms of their negativity,” Molly Cook, a co-author of the study, told me. About 87 percent of Covid coverage in national U.S. media last year was negative. The share was 51 percent in international media, 53 percent in U.S. regional media and 64 percent in scientific journals. Sacerdote is careful to emphasize that he does not think journalists usually report falsehoods. The issue is which facts they emphasize. Still, the new study—which the National Bureau of Economic Research has published as a working paper, titled, “Why is all Covid-19 news bad news?”—calls for some self-reflection from those of us in the media. Sometimes our healthy skepticism can turn into reflexive cynicism, and we end up telling something less than the complete story.

As Europe’s Lockdowns Drag On, Police and Protesters Clash (NYT) In Bristol, an English college town where the pubs are usually packed with students, there were fiery clashes between the police and protesters. In Kassel, a German city known for its ambitious contemporary art festival, the police unleashed pepper spray and water cannons on anti-lockdown marchers. A year after European leaders ordered people into their homes to curb a deadly pandemic, thousands are pouring into streets and squares. Often, they are met by batons and shields, raising questions about the tactics and role of the police in societies where personal liberties have already given way to public health concerns. From Spain and Denmark to Austria and Romania, frustrated people are lashing out at the restrictions on their daily lives. With much of Europe facing a third wave of coronavirus infections that could keep these stifling lockdowns in place weeks or even months longer, analysts warn that tensions on the streets are likely to escalate. In Britain, where the rapid pace of vaccinations has raised hopes for a faster opening of the economy than the government is willing to countenance, frustration over recent police conduct has swelled into a national debate over the legitimacy of the police—one that carries distant echoes of the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States.

Subterranean playgrounds—and refuge (Atlas Obscura) Thought to be the world’s only city with an underground master plan, Helsinki began excavating tunnels through bedrock in the 1960s to house power lines, sewers and other utilities. City planners quickly realized that the space could also be home to retail, cultural, and sporting attractions—and that it could shelter the city’s population of 630,000 in the event of an invasion from its neighbor to the East, Russia. Today, nearly 200 miles of tunnels snake beneath Helsinki, providing a weatherproof subterranean playground. But hidden behind the bright lights are emergency shelters fitted with life-sustaining equipment: an air filtration system, an estimated two-week supply of food and water, and cots and other comforts. “It’s comfortable and safe,” says Eija Kivilaakso, Helsinki’s chief underground planner. “If it’s raining, you can drive into the city center to an underground car park and go straight into department stores from elevators. You can dress for comfort instead of in cold-weather clothes. If the weather is not comfortable, people choose the underground.”

Cars become home for Spain’s pandemic casualties (AP) When the social worker called to tell Javier Irure that he was being evicted, the 65-year-old Spaniard couldn’t fathom that he could end up homeless after five decades of manual labor. “I grabbed some clothes, a few books and other things, wrapped them up in a bed sheet and told myself, ‘I have one more roof to put over my head: my car,’” Irure said from inside the old Renault Clio compact that has been his shelter for the past three months. Irure belongs to the multitude of economic victims of the coronavirus pandemic. He managed to avoid getting COVID-19, but the labor slowdown caused by restrictions on movement and social activities the Spanish government imposed to control the spread of the virus proved lethal to his financial stability, and he lost his apartment. The pandemic has been particularly hard on Spain’s economy due to its reliance on tourism and the service sector. The country’s left-wing government has maintained a furlough program to reduce the impact, but over a million jobs have been wiped out. Catholic aid organization Cáritas Española said earlier this month that around a half-million more people, or 26% of all its aid recipients, have reached out for help since the start of the pandemic. Like Javier, some are living in their cars.

Writer faces prison after calling Polish president ‘moron’ for confusion over U.S. electoral college (Washington Post) Polish writer Jakub Zulczyk says he is facing up to three years in prison after he called Poland’s president a “moron” for saying he did not understand the U.S. electoral college system. Writing on Facebook on Monday, Zulczyk said that a district prosecutor in Warsaw had filed an indictment, using an article in Poland’s penal code that prohibits insults against the head of state. The writer said he had not been contacted by the prosecutor and had found out about the indictment from a Polish news site. International rights groups have criticized Duda’s ruling Law and Justice party for clamping down on freedom of speech and an independent judiciary. Freedom House, a U.S.-based group, has called Poland’s laws related to insults “harsh” and noted that libel should be a criminal, rather than civil, offense.

Rohingya refugee camp fire (Reuters) A devastating fire that tore through a sprawling Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh killed 15 people and left tens of thousands homeless, the United Nations said Tuesday. More than 550 people were injured and 400 remain missing. The fire began Monday afternoon at Balukhali camp, one of several such settlements in Cox’s Bazar in southern Bangladesh, which is home to nearly 1 million Rohingyas who fled from neighboring Myanmar.

North Korea fires short-range missiles in challenge to Biden administration (Washington Post) North Korea fired off multiple short range missiles last weekend after denouncing Washington for going forward with joint military exercises with South Korea, according to people familiar with the situation. The missile tests, which have not previously been reported, represent North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s first direct challenge to President Biden, whose aides have not yet outlined their approach to the regime’s nuclear threat amid an ongoing review of U.S.-North Korea policy. For weeks, U.S. defense officials warned that intelligence indicated that North Korea might carry out missile tests. The regime elevated its complaints about U.S. military exercises last week when Kim’s sister warned that if the Biden administration “wants to sleep in peace for the coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink.” The tests put renewed pressure on the United States to develop a strategy to address a nuclear threat that has bedeviled successive Republican and Democratic administrations for decades.

South Koreans Are Furious Over Housing Scandal (NYT) The 10 people bought $8.8 million worth of land in an undeveloped area southwest of Seoul, registering it for farming and planting numerous trees. It’s a common trick used by shady real estate speculators in South Korea: Once the area is taken over for housing development, the developers must pay not only for the land, but the trees, too. A national outrage erupted this month when South Koreans learned that the 10 people were officials from the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH)—the government agency in charge of building new towns and housing—suspected of using privileged information to cash in on government housing development programs. The incident has thrown President Moon Jae-in’s government into crisis mode just weeks before key mayoral elections that are largely seen as a referendum on him and his party ahead of next year’s presidential race. Young South Koreans are saying they are fed up with corruption and the president’s failed policies on runaway housing prices. The LH scandal is now set to become a critical voter issue in Mr. Moon’s final year in office. President after president has promised to make housing more affordable in South Korea, but real-estate prices have kept soaring, undermining public trust.

Massive cargo ship turns sideways, blocks Egypt’s Suez Canal (AP) A cargo container ship that’s among the largest in the world has turned sideways and blocked all traffic in Egypt’s Suez Canal, officials said Wednesday, threatening to disrupt a global shipping system already strained by the coronavirus pandemic. The MV Ever Given, a Panama-flagged container ship that carries trade between Asia and Europe, became grounded Tuesday in the narrow, man-made waterway dividing continental Africa from the Sinai Peninsula. An Egyptian official blamed a strong wind in the area for the incident. Egyptian forecasters said high winds and a sandstorm plagued the area Tuesday, with winds gusting as much as 50 kph (31 mph). The Egyptian official said tugboats hoped to refloat the ship and that the operation would take at least two days. The Ever Given, built in 2018 with a length of nearly 400 meters (a quarter mile) and a width of 59 meters (193 feet), is among the largest cargo ships in the world. It can carry some 20,000 containers at a time. About 12% of world trade by volume passes through the canal connecting Europe and Asia.

Work affects bosses, workers differently (Bloomberg) A new survey of 30,000 workers in 31 countries by the popular gaming and social networking service Microsoft found that 61 percent of business leaders said that they were striving, while just 39 percent said they were surviving or struggling. That 61 percent living their best life is markedly out of step with the entire rest of society—23 percentage points higher than the average worker—where 54 percent said they are overworked, 39 percent described themselves as exhausted, and straight up 41 percent of people said they are considering just leaving their jobs, a level of burnout not seen before.

[alexsmitposts]

The “Corruption” Narrative: Who’s Afraid of Isabel Dos Santos? And Why? The words they use to describe her are nasty, cliché, but all too familiar. They call her “Princess,” “Oligarch,” and accuse her of “embezzlement” “peddling influence” etc. The truth is that Isabel Dos Santos, the richest woman in Africa, has for decades been on the hit list of the most powerful people in the world.  In the first month of 2020, the international media has doubled down, taken aim, and decided to go for the kill. And who are the hitmen? The same folks who brought you the Panama Papers, the shady International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ). The outlet with ties to the Democracy Fund of the United Nations, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and George Soros’ Open Society Foundation is repeating their same old mantra. They accuse independent leaders around the world, from Russia, China, Latin America, and Africa of being “corrupt.” They display in rather convenient “leaks,” as if it is somehow shocking, that the leaders of countries with massive populations and resources in-fact possess lots of wealth. The international audience is led to the conclusion that the targeted leader should be removed. Misuse of government funds and other malpractice is certainly a plague rampant in many developing countries. When nations are working to raise themselves out of poverty, shady practices often become a kind of way of life as the population learns to “take care of each other.” The result is often widespread inefficiency. But what is the obvious goal of these Soros, USAID backed ICIJ operations? To keep intact the corrupt, monopolistic global financial order that exists by selectively targeting those who challenge it. The deeply corrupt global order where Wall Street and London bankers rule the world, keeping it poor so they can stay rich, pushing policies of “de-regulation” and “free markets” that have failed over and over, never gets called into question. “Corruption” charges were used to oust Dilma Roussef, to imprison Lula Di Silva who would have won the 2018 election according to every poll, and install autocratic free market demagogue Jiar Bolsanaro in Brazil. “Corruption” allegations are constantly used to stir up opposition to the Putin government by forces who were quite satisfied with the free market looting during the Yeltsin-era, and dislike that Russia has been restored as an economic power and energy exporter. Leftist Vice President Christina Kirchner in Argentina was also hit with a series of “corruption” charges by supporters of the IMF and the free market policies, who attempted to undo her progressive reforms during the Mauricio Macri. Meanwhile, many politicians in the “free” western capitalist countries have offshore bank accounts, take care of their relatives and business associates, and otherwise engage in notably corrupt behavior. The President of the United States is pretty obviously tied to a chain of “Trump Hotels” around the world, and many questions have been raised about that since the 2016 elections. Former Vice President Joe Biden’s son conveniently got a well paying job at a Burisma Holdings, a Ukrainian Natural Gas corporation, at the very moment when the USA was backing the ��EuroMaiden” events that toppled President Yanukovych. An Oil Rich Country, Kept Poor by Western Capitalism Angola is not a poor country. It has lots of oil. Its natural gas potential is just being realized. It has minerals and a vast population. However, poverty is widespread in this southern African nation. Until 1975, Angola was a colony of Portugal. The population lived as colonial slaves, worked to death, kept in poverty, as their resources were utilized to line the pockets of Portuguese businessmen. The People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) was formed in 1956 to throw off the colonial chains. The MPLA was a Marxist-Leninist political organization backed and armed by the Soviet Union. It waged a guerilla insurgency, fighting Portuguese troops, right up until the Carnation Revolution.  When the fascist government of Portugal fell in 1975, colonial territories were granted independence. The MPLA took power as the elected government of a newly free Angola. Immediately following independence, the apartheid government of South Africa invaded Angola. Over 65,000 Cuban soldiers were sent to support the MPLA in fighting off this and subsequent invasions by the apartheid regime. Cuba continued to maintain a military presence in Angola to support the MPLA. At the time of independence, the United States government had already been arming and training a group of terrorists and extremists called the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) that conducted assassinations and other acts of violence against the MPLA.  UNITA at first claimed to be Maoist Communists and had relations with China, but by the late 1970s they were Evangelical Christians and advocates of western capitalism. The United States was their primary supporter, and anti-communism was their rallying cry. The leader of the CIA trained and armed UNITA terrorists like  Jonas Savimbi. Savimbi murdered civilians, bombed schools and hospitals and committed horrendous atrocities. Savimbi was a practitioner of witchcraft and a literal cannibal, who ate the corpses of MPLA soldiers. The horrendous atrocities of Jonas Savimbi has been well documented, but this did not stop the Reagan White House and other US administrations from embracing them as freedom fighters. The goal of the MPLA was to peacefully develop Angola into a prosperous socialist country. This was not possible in a state of total civil war, as US-backed terrorists ravaged the country for 27 years. Even when peace was finally declared in 2002, the United Nations noted that Angola was littered with landmines, and most of its bridges and essential infrastructure had been destroyed. “Angola Starts Now!” In 2002, with peace declared, the MPLA declared “Angola Starts Now!” and began to eradicate poverty and economically develop the country. Their efforts were aided significantly by the highest oil prices in world history. The GDP increased at a staggeringly high average of 11.1% from 2001 to 2010. China worked with Angola to build new railways connecting previously isolated parts of the country. The capital city of Luanda became a prosperous business center. Millions of Angolans were lifted from poverty. Who was key in making all of this happen? Isabel Dos Santos. Isabel is the daughter of the country’s first elected President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos. It is largely because of her efforts that Angola now has a state controlled mobile telecommunications corporation, Unitel. She also helped to set up Banco de Fomento Angola and Banco BIC, two private banks based in Angola. These are banks subsidized with state oil profits, that have provided loans allowing the domestic economy of Angola to flourish. Isabel Dos Santos has traveled around the world working to bring foreign investment into her homeland. In 2016 Isabel Dos Santos moved out of the private sector and was named as the director of Sonangol, the state-run oil company that remains at the center of the Angolan economy. Much like Putin did in Russia with Gazprom and Rosneft, Sonagol is a “national champion.” It is a state-controlled energy corporation utilized to create economic growth and stabilize the market. It was with Sonangol’s proceeds that the mining and agricultural sectors were stimulated. Nigeria is now the top oil exporting country in Africa. It has been a playground for Chevron, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and Exxon-Mobile for years. Nigeria has a few billionaires, but the population is overwhelmingly poor and illiterate. While lots of oil is extracted and lots of profits made by western corporations, nothing like Angola’s economic boom of 2002-2014 has ever happened in Nigeria, despite decades and decades in the oil business. The successes of Angola cannot be blamed on high oil prices alone, but rather on state central planning, utilizing oil proceeds to eradicate poverty and construct. Isabel Dos Santos has spent very little time working in government. She prides herself on her success as a businesswoman in the private sector. Her dynamic leadership and strategic management of private companies, in coordination with state central planners, created all kinds of spectacular results. “There are thousands of people whom we gave their first job,” she told BBC. When a new President took office in 2017, the Wall Street Journal celebrated Isabel Dos Santos’ departure. It accused her of running “turgid bureaucracy.” American oil companies were angry that she “required that they buy supplies from select domestic firms.” Dos Santos enforced environmental laws, and would not privatize the newly discovered natural gas resources that “by law belongs to the government.” Immediately before  the ouster of Isabel Dos Santos from Sonangol, Total, BP, Haliburton, and Exxon-Mobile had terminated their relationship with the state-run firm. It appears that the big oil bankers almost demanded her ouster from the new administration of President Juan Lourenço and their wish was granted. A Failed Administration Scapegoating Its Predecessors Lourenço promised to usher in an “economic miracle” with his free market reforms once elected. The opposite has occurred. Unemployment has risen. Strikes and social unrest are also increasing. 28% of Angola’s population lives on less than $1.90 per day. Lourenço has signed on with the International Monetary Fund, known for pushing deregulation and Milton Friedman style economic reforms in exchange for “development loans.” Since he cannot fix the economy, Lourenço seems to be focused scapegoating his predecessors, who presided over huge economic achievements. President João Lourenço calls himself “the terminator,” and he has worked hard to single out members of the Dos Santos family and their allies for prosecution. 45 cases are currently in court, and Isabel Dos Santos is now among those facing charges, as is her younger brother. However, a BBC article published on January 16th seems to have revealed that the campaign against Santos isn’t simply about retaliation against the Dos Santos family. During  an interview, Isabel Dos Santos “declined four times to rule out” running for the Presidency. Later she told a Portuguese network “it’s possible” that she may intend run for head of state in 2022. And what else, she could very well win, despite massive huge efforts to besmirch her reputation with the convenient “Luanda Leaks” presented by the Soros, USAID tied outlet. To Angolans who have endured decades of civil war followed by miraculous amounts of growth, the name “Dos Santos” is associated with the legacy of the anti-colonial struggle, as well as a decade of exciting hope. The “Iron Lady” Southern Africa Needs? Indicating why she might consider a Presidential run, she told BBC “President Lourenço is fighting for absolute power. There’s a strong wish to neutralize any influence that [former] President Dos Santos might still have in the MPLA…. If a different candidate would appear [ahead of the 2022 presidential election] supported by former President Dos Santos or allies linked to him, that would really challenge [Mr Lourenço’s] position because his current track record is very, very poor.” In fact, Isabel Dos Santos could be the kind of leader that Southern Africa desperately needs. Her father was a guerilla fighter who fought the Portuguese and went into exile. Her mother was a Russian Communist. While the MPLA backed away from Soviet-style Marxism-Leninism in 1991, it remains a Democratic Socialist Party, and its members are dedicated to building a society where all Angolans have what they need. Already, from both the private sector and as the head of Sonangol, Dos Santos has put into practice a successful implementation of policies that could be called “petro-socialism” i.e. using state-run oil profits to centralize and build up an economy. On the northern end of the continent, Libya flourished under such policies. The Islamic Socialist government of Moammar Gaddafi built the world’s largest irrigation system, “the man-made river.” Libya had the highest life expectancy on the African continent until 2011 and had achieved universal housing and literacy. Libya worked hard to suppress Al-Qaida and terrorist groups and provided financial support to the Irish Republican Army, the Nation of Islam, the Black Panthers, and many other socialist and anti-imperialist forces around the world. In his final year, Gaddaffi openly spoke of establishing an African currency and an African bank, laying the basis for independence from western financial power. All of this culminated in the USA funding an uprising against him, and NATO bombing campaign that destroyed the country. During Gaddaffi’s leadership, Africans from across the continent piled into the Libya where the state provided them with employment. Now, in a war-torn, newly impoverished and destroyed post-Gaddafi, pro-western Libya, Africans are trying to get out on rafts, and drowning in the Mediterranean trying to reach Europe. Russia and China were both deeply impoverished countries at the beginning of the 20th Century, but it was with state central planning, mobilizing the population and rationally organizing the economy that they became superpowers. Both countries have learned the lessons of the Soviet Union’s demise, and recognize the need for foreign investment and a private sector, which will  allow more entrepreneurialism. However, Russia and China continue to get stronger because they have not fallen into the trap of “profits in command” and the chaos of the market. All across the developing world, the absolute failure of Milton Friedman-style economics can be seen. Even the Bretton Woods institutions now admit that they have been “too Neoliberal.” All out “free trade” Adam Smith-style capitalism is not the answer, for Angola or any other country. If Isabel Dos Santos, a savvy businesswoman was elected, carrying with her a family name that is associated with better times, and resilient leadership, she could very well turn things around. As Russia becomes more involved in helping strengthen African countries, and  as China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank works to build infrastructure to help the development of independent economies, Isabel Dos Santos has great potential as a leader. With her strength and boldness, she could bring economic growth, financial independence, and hope to millions of people, not just in her own country, but throughout the region.

[compsrealestate2-blog]

18 Commercial Real Estate Trends To Dominate In 2019

Commercial real estate data

Goodbye 2018, hi 2019! As the new year approaches, Bishop talked with many industry execs, economists and researchers to discover the major trends expected to dominate the commercial real estate industry in the upcoming year. From the increase of opportunity zones to a downturn in industrial absorption, these are 18 trends experts predict for 2019.

commercial real estate trends

1. Opportunity Zones Craze To Persist

As investors await finalized advice from the Department of the Treasury and the IRS concerning the Opportunity Zone program, the search is on for resources and investment opportunities in those designated areas that present the most powerful upside potential. Investors are lining up to pour billions to Opportunity Zone Funds, using a report by Real Capital Analytics saying there is more than $6 trillion in unrealized capital gains eligible to be set up into potential zones.

Though the program was created via the departure of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act last year to induce economic growth in underserved communities in exchange for a hefty tax break, study reveals many of the census tracts classified as chance zones have already brought a considerable amount of investment prior to the launch of the new federal plan. Critics of the program stress it'll accelerate investment in areas already experiencing a surge in development activity, leading to a convergence of investment to burgeoning neighborhoods already in high demand, and a lack of investment in differently blighted communities.

2. Industrial Boom To Keep Thanks To High Demand From E-Commerce Players, Though A Few Headwinds May Surface

Industrial property demand soared to new heights this past season, also CBRE Head of Industrial Research David Egan expects more of the exact same in 2019.

"I believe the market has outperformed this year, at least from user action. There has been an overall expectation for a number of years that this can not continue, and it ends up that hasn't been true. We've got a huge quantity of demand in the marketplace for logistics properties of all kinds; obviously the most Class-A big-bulk warehouses are exactly what capture the majority of the attention, but the need is very broad-based and extending all the way down to secondary and tertiary markets," he said. "My anticipation in 2019 is that we ought to see less or more of the same dynamic."

Web absorption caused by e-commerce growth is expected to moderate between 75M SF and 94M SFexactly the same as this season, according to CBRE's 2019 Outlook report, and a lack of new supply has driven vacancy amounts down to 4.3 percent, a historic low.

"Based on the demand that we're seeing from the e-commerce industry -- as well as from conventional brick-and-mortar retailers that are entering or expanding into the online space -- we could fully expect that e-commerce will continue to drive the marketplace annually," Bridge Development Partners President Anthony Pricco explained. "This is particularly true for infill sites proximate to the significant population centers. While the increasing costs of construction and land could be seen as emerging economy headwinds, the upside of industrial growth is still exceptionally strong, as rents have been appreciating at a much quicker rate."

Egan told Bisnow that he wouldn't be surprised if net absorption tapered off in 2019 because of new distribution not keeping pace with strong demand levels.

"You can only absorb what is available," he explained. "While we hope to see supply-demand relatively in check, those growth metrics will still be positive."

3. Federal Reserve To Slowly Boost Interest Rates Due To The Power Of The Economy

With solid jobs expansion continuing to increase at a healthy clip and the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%, a 50-year reduced, Fed officials hint that they will likely continue their path of activity in 2019 to gradually boost short-term interest levels to temper inflation and maintain a stable market.

"Inflation exists over the Fed's target of 2% to 2.5%, with more job openings than jobless and more homebuyers than brand new home inventory. The Fed sees inflation forward first and foremost and will continue on a hike-pause-hike-pause pattern in 2019 provided that GDP remains above 2 percent and unemployment below 5%," CCIM Institute Chief Economist K.C. Conway said.

The Fed boosted prices three times this year to a range of 2% to 2.25 percent, and several expect central bankers to bump prices again in December. Big Wall Street banks polled by Reuters expect central bankers to increase rates another 3 times in 2019.

"Though the latest Fed advice has seemed less authoritative on its future path, the market and most analysts anticipate another hike this month and 2 to four next year, as both inflation and wage growth surpass their targets," Colliers International U.S. Chief Economist Andrew Nelson stated. "This may translate into declines in consumer and business borrowing and curb spending and investing."

4. Online Retailers Will Continue To Open Brick-And-Mortar Stores, Additional Validating That Physical Retail Is Far From Dead

With the retail sector stabilizing in 2018, CBRE Head Of Global Retail Research Melina Cordero expects retailers to start reinvesting in their physical footprints to accomplish the ideal omnichannel buying experience for consumers. Additionally, digitally native (or even e-commerce only) retailers will increasingly shift to open physical stores to cultivate their business and keep more customers, Cordero said.

"In relation to retail and real estate, I believe the retailers have finally sort of heard things to do. There is a good deal of investment, changes and closures that needed to happen to adapt to omnichannel. More than 2018 a good deal of these investments eventually started to pay off.

"What we think is going to occur over 2019 is a true return to the shop. Retailers are finally beginning to understand the value of their real estate -- they can not just close a shop and rely on internet, they really need the shop for profit margins, consumer care, customer acquisition, for lots of reasons. I think we are going to see a great deal of reinvesting from the store and a lot of reinvesting in strategies to attempt to get people into the shop," Cordero said.

5. Industry To Continue Reading The Tea Leaves To Predict The Next Downturn

Everybody is watching out for signs of the next recession, as the market nears its 10th year of expansion -- its longest period of expansion ever.

"In the history of U.S. business cycles, downturns have generally occurred within a couple of years after the economy has reached full employment," JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist Jim Glassman said. "A careful evaluation of this historical regularity indicates, however, that this routine has been the consequence of two imbalances -- a building inflation problem that needs the Fed to adopt a more restrictive policy position, or unprecedented financial imbalances.

"In that regard, there are not any obvious imbalances that have the potential to trigger a downturn, so the current expansion is likely to settle into a protracted period of balanced, noninflationary growth"

Although U.S. economic growth and job gains were strong in 2018, some economists and analysts forecast the market will likely slow in 2019 because of continuing short-term interest rate lumps by the Federal Reserve and waning financial stimulus from federal tax reductions.

"Inevitable disruption is most likely the right risk strategy mode to be in for 2019. Real estate is not immune from business cycles, economic recessions or tumultuous black swan events -- like a trade war, currency meltdown or cyberterrorism," Conway said.

6. Investor Demand For U.S. Assets To Keep Transaction Volume Strong

"Though property markets peaked for this cycle in 2015, sales and leasing trade activity remain robust and pricing firm," Nelson informed Bisnow. "Transaction quantity through Q3 2018 [has been ] 11% above its level for the comparable period this past year and is approaching the total closed in 2015 -- the peak sales year for this cycle.

"While all four core sectors have contributed in this year's profits, office and apartment -- perennial investor favorites -- have posted the highest sales totals and the most powerful price appreciation thus far. However, equally [will] probably slow sharply in the next two decades, together with price appreciation and lease growth, as the market slows or even turns negative"

7. Industrywide PropTech Adoption To Accelerate

Commercial real estate professionals -- from operators and owners to brokers and architects -- may no longer deny the impact technology is having on the industry. More real estate firms are embracing the most recent innovations to streamline perform tasks and make a more paperless, transparent approach to sourcing deals, managing resources, assessing data and closing trades.

Mihir Shah, co-CEO of JLL Spark -- JLL's PropTech division that has a $100M global fund dedicated to investing in real estate tech firms -- told Bishop that PropTech companies have become increasingly precious as their products have helped property companies further their initiatives.

"As part of the effort, we are seeing businesses that typically went through extended RFPs showing interest in new products to see which ones are workable. This helps them prove [return on investment] quicker and helps the winners grow faster," Shah said. "This willingness to try new things will help PropTech adoption in 2019 and outside."

8. Investment In Value-Add Assets To Help Assuage U.S. Workforce Housing Availability, Affordability Concerns

Requirement for accessible and affordable workforce housing options will remain a topic of interest from the multifamily sector, as expensive land and development costs make it increasingly difficult to construct affordable housing from the bottom up. This is particularly a pain stage in urban metros, JPMorgan Chase Head of Commercial Real Estate Al Brooks advised Bisnow.

"The ongoing job growth we have been experiencing in the U.S. is having a huge impact on workforce housing affordability in important cities. This influx of talent is still fueled by the need to be in close proximity to work, the ease of mass transit options, in addition to the allure of being at the center of this action in major metropolitan areas," Brooks said.

CBRE Americas Head of Multifamily Research Jeanette Rice said investment in value-add multifamily resources can help alleviate these concerns.

"Workforce housing will also stay appealing in 2019 due to demand outpacing available supply, thereby keeping vacancy rates reduced and leasing growth above the overall multifamily market.

"Investor interest will also stay very high in 2019. Interest is coming from all sorts of capital, including foreign and institutional capital as well as traditional sources like smaller private buyers. The desire for labor housing is very strong for the better property fundamentals and greater yields. Value-add investment will likely still predominate in 2019 and stay largely successful. Acquisitions of stabilized merchandise will also be appealing for some investors, particularly those with longer-term hold horizons," Rice said.

9. Millennials To Continue Flocking To Hipsturbias And 18-Hour Suburban Cities

Research and data has dispelled the long-held myth which millennials are city-flocking suburbia haters. With aging millennials now hitting their early 30s, many are turning to the suburbs with their households. Over 2.6 million Americans relocated from the city to the suburbs in the previous two years, according to the U.S. Census Bureau as reported by ULI. This has renewed investor interest and confidence in pick non-gateway markets, ULI reports in its own 2019 Trends survey. "Hipsturbias" or"Urban-burbs" have been used to classify these suburban markets with greater walkability and access to public transit which resemble urban metros.

A U.S. bank senior researcher advised ULI the following:

"The first phase is millennials moving to the suburbs for larger, more affordable homes and access to colleges, so decent single-family home and multifamily housing will be necessary. Retail follows rooftops, so retail development to meet the new occupants' needs will follow. Last, you might start to see more emphasis on job facilities as individuals decide they want to operate closer to where they reside." 10. Investors To Favor Industrial, Multifamily And Retail Assets From The New Year

It comes as no surprise that industrial property assets are an anticipated favorite for investors in 2019, along with multifamily assets, based on ULI's 2019 Emerging Trends report. Deep-pocketed investors such as Blackstone Group continue to gobble up entire portfolios of industrial resources at a rapid pace this year, for example its purchase of industrial REIT Gramercy Property Trust for $7.6B, also a portfolio of last-mile logistics resources from Harvard University for nearly $1B and also a portfolio of 41 warehouses from FRP Holdings Inc. for $359M.

More interesting is the fact that retail is expected to attract attention from shareholders in 2019, especially those assets ripe for redevelopment and updates.

"Many shopping centre properties are simply not going to return as successful retail resources. However, while few have been reduced in cost to a mere land worth, many are well below replacement cost and have good locations for alternative applications," ULI reports. "If a website is adequately big, mixed-use is a great option for close-in suburbs appearing to exploit maturing millennials' desire to input their next life-cycle phase. There is a chance to turn the tables around the e-commerce fashion that fostered the obsolescence by redevelopment into supply facilities."

11. Investors To Keep Flocking To Secondary, Tertiary Markets For Yield

Commercial property investors on the hunt for solid risk-adjusted returns continue to skip entry markets to gamble on assets in burgeoning secondary markets, as well as the trend is likely to last in 2019.

"Due to the high rates and limited opportunities in main U.S. metros, investors are continuing to concentrate more on secondary markets, that are appreciating double-digit increase in investment activity and also much stronger price increases than at the primary (mostly coastal) metro markets," Colliers' Nelson said. "But, those trends are likely to reverse if/when we see the economic downturn, and investors find the safety of bigger, more liquid markets."

This behavior is typical at a late-stage cycle such as this, CBRE Chairman of Americas Research Spencer Levy stated.

"The downside of the coin is it is standard of late-cycle investment action that you find a change from primary to secondary in search of yields. What's new is we've not seen a compression of yields that would be average in late-market activity," he said. "What occurs is cap levels in primaries and secondaries converge; we have not seen that in office and retail, but we have seen that at multifamily. The issue is, is that this trend durable during a recession which will occur within another couple of years?"

12. Construction Industry To Keep on Grappling With High Costs, Labor Shortage

Increasing construction costs were the No. 1 property and development concern for respondents that participated in ULI's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 surveys. On a scale of one to five, five of the best importance, construction costs ranked 4.59, together with land costs and housing prices and availability following near at 4.14 and 4, ULI reports.

"Growing construction costs may be the most understood narrative of 2018 that has to become a substance narrative in 2019," CCIM's Conway stated. Conway identified a number of factors exacerbating cost and labour challenges in the building industry, such as a decline in immigrant construction laborers following the financial crisis, loony superstorms as a consequence of climate change which has resulted in massive rebuilding efforts across the nation, and tariffs and the transaction war.

"Key materials such as steel,... toilet fittings from China, timber from Canada, etc., are affected. Pay attention to the quarterly earnings reports from building materials companies regarding the kind of input cost increases being experienced. Caterpillar, for instance, reported solid sales in Q3 2018, however, a sizable rise in material inputs like steel. The outcome is rising pressure on margins.

"This is the key takeaway regarding construction labour and material costs increases -- margins will be squeezed, cost overruns incurred, and worth under pressure unless rents and [internet operating income] can be raised to cover the rising costs of new building," Conway said.

13. U.S. Office Real Estate Markets To Stay Stable, Though Demand May Slow

CBRE stated in its 2019 U.S. Outlook report which office net absorption is predicted to reach 37M SF in 2019, representing the business's 10th consecutive year of positive absorption. Should the nation continue to experience strong office-using job growth in the new year, it could cause strong absorption rates and renewed interest from shareholders.

"One part of office property expansion is the requirement for more office space near amusement venues and other comforts. These office buildings are relying on smaller, more flexible workspaces. Working spaces also are becoming more common as professionals choose other working procedures," Gerken informed Bisnow.

That said, Colliers' Nelson anticipates office demand will taper off in reaction to a downturn in job development and strong supply levels.

"Demand for office space will medium in response to slower job development, just as a significant quantity of projects already under construction starts to enter the current market," Nelson stated. "So vacancy will trend up and rent growth will ease as market conditions become more aggressive for landlords."

14. Retail Bankruptcies To Slow, Retailer Earnings To Stabilize

"The real estate business has undergone significant change in recent years, and the transformation is deep and will continue throughout 2019. The convergence of brick-and-mortar and internet retail will continue to create major seismic changes in the industry," TD Bank Head of Commercial Real Estate Gregg Gerken told Bishop.

Though a tide of merchants filed for bankruptcy and shuttered stores this season -- including Sears, Mattress Firm, Nine West and Claire's -- the situation surrounding most shop closures next year ought to be vastly different, CBRE's Cordero explained.

"I feel that the general industry opinion is that 2017 was likely the summit [for retail closures]. I think there will continue to become closers in 2019 -- it is hard to say whether we will have more or less -- but I would say a lot of the closures that we will find in 2019 will be about that which we call portfolio rationalization or optimization than they're about retailers that are failing.

"Retailers in many cases do need to close shops to reorient their portfolios -- therefore I really do anticipate closures at 2019, but I don't actually [connect ] a lot of those closures as dying or neglecting retail, it's more of morphing and adjusting retail," Cordero said.

15. Multistory Warehouse Development From The U.S. To Accelerate

Requirements have ripened for multistory warehouse development from the U.S., and this trend will continue into 2019. Facilities are detained or have already delivered in Seattle, San Francisco, New York, Miami and Chicago. Even though multistory warehouses are nothing new in Europe and Asia, the U.S. is in the beginning phases of developing these kinds of facilities today that building costs are not as cheap and there is less available land than in earlier times CBRE's Levy explained. Unprecedented demand for logistics and warehouse space now has changed this dynamic.

"The rents which are being achieved in such multistory industrial [centers ] may be two or three times what you're seeing in conventional industrial. We believe this particular tendency is only at the beginning in the United States," Levy explained.

Although the lumps in lease are substantial, CBRE Head of Industrial Research David Egan said these multistory facilities can also present operational challenges for consumers.

"The users are going to have to alter how that they function in such buildings to make it work efficiently," he explained. "The operational problems are not small -- to change how they move inventory in and outside of those buildings is not a small little tweak."

16. Grocery Chains To Proceed Additional Online Expand Their Online Offerings With The Help Of Tech

Up to now, delivering fresh markets to consumers' doors has turned into a rather nascent concept -- and it's no simple job. Grocers already combat low profit margins because of increasingly declining food costs and new low-cost competitions like Aldi entering the marketplace. These challenges, coupled with expensive online delivery costs, has maintained online grocery delivery in its infancy. However, CBRE's Cordero sees that tendency changing in 2019.

"Grocery is probably, one of all the retail classes, one of the lowest for online penetration. We believe because of a mixture of technological progress, investment on the part of retailers and customer demand, that we're likely to see a pretty significant shift next year at grocery going online and retailers offering more to consumers in that domain," she explained.

17. Economic Development Teams Round The Country Continue To Feel The Effects Of HQ2 Competition

"An open competition like the Amazon HQ2 search is an opportunity for communities to redefine their own legacy image and showcase what's different in their economy today versus 10, 20 or 30 years back. The 238 communities which competed for the Amazon HQ2 are winning economic growth as a result," CCIM's Conway stated.

"Amazon is using the data to site select new fulfillment centers in places like Tucson, Arizona, and Birmingham, Alabama. Other significant transport and e-commerce businesses, like Norfolk Southern Railroad, have used the data to create a relocation decision (in Norfolk Southern's instance, to Atlanta, that was one of the 20 finalist cities for Amazon HQ2). In other words, the Amazon HQ2 research was to economic growth what the census is to demographics"

18. U.S. Hotel Occupancy To Split Records In 2019

The hotel sector is expected to undergo a record-breaking year of occupancy degrees in 2019, according to a prediction from CBRE Hotels America Research. Occupancy levels are expected to surge to 66.2% following year, the 10th successive year of growth. This growth will be driven with a 2.1% growth in demand to offset the incoming supply.

That strong demand may not be felt equally across markets, Quadrum Hospitality Group President Foiz Ahmed stated.

"Though the hospitality sector continues to grow, the economies where Quadrum is active will remain relatively horizontal given their higher-than-national average occupancy prices. While average daily rates are increasing nationwide, the industry will likely face some challenges as a result of rapid adoption of apps that provide discounted rates."

[lizseyi]

Britons ‘Showing Record Levels Of Interest In Spanish Property’ - Bmsotogrande

Britons ‘showing record levels of interest in Spanish property’ Those of you who have been closely following the recent news headlines in relation to property in Sotogrande and elsewhere in Andalucia could be forgiven for feeling a little confused at the moment as to whether Brits are heading to Spain in great numbers, or instead going in the other direction. 

Have Brexit and COVID-19 deterred would-be buyers from the UK, or is the historic longstanding interest in Spanish property among Britons as strong as ever? 

Plenty of Brits are continuing to dream about owning a property in Sotogrande 

As so often with questions like this, the reality is a little more complicated than many newspaper stories may suggest. After all, we did recently report that according to statistics from the Spanish Land Registry, Germans have now overtaken Britons among the non-Spanish purchasers of real estate in the country. 

However, it would also be wide of the mark to suggest that Britons are no longer seriously interested in property in Sotogrande or elsewhere across Spain. The fundamentals that attracted such UK buyers in the first place are, after all, largely intact – think such things as about 3,000 hours of sunshine every year, stunning scenery, and highly rewarding cultural, sports and leisure attractions.

Plus, we are starting to see greater stability in the situations related to both the coronavirus and Brexit, compared to just a year ago. This probably helps explain why one of the online property portals we work with here at BM Sotogrande – Kyero – has just released data indicating record interest in Spanish property from Britons in 2021. 

What do the new statistics reveal? 

The Kyero data showed that the overseas property portal – the largest in the UK, with more than 870,000 European property listings – had seen its highest ever volume of traffic to properties in Spain during the first three quarters of this year (the nine months from January to September), compared to the equivalent period in any year since it was founded in 2003. 

The site recorded 16% more enquiries for properties in Spain in the third quarter of 2021, compared to the corresponding period last year. And just to show that such a rise in enquiries was not solely down to the release of pent-up demand since last year’s lockdown, the data also indicated a 10% increase in enquiries for Spanish properties compared to the same period in 2019. 

In separate news, a Kyero poll of over 2,000 people thinking about relocating to Europe found that three quarters of respondents were motivated to do so in order to enjoy better weather. 16% of would-be buyers, meanwhile, said they were seeking a cheaper cost of living from their move to another country. 

Kyero founder Louise Dell said that Spain remained a magnet for prospective movers from the UK, adding: “Amidst the British winter of discontent – energy bill increases, petrol shortages, unpredictable weather and ongoing Brexit issues – more and more people are setting about making their dreams of moving to Europe a reality. 

“Brexit has been a major driver for many Brits buying property in Europe over the last few years, and while it has had some implications on residency, a significant proportion of European house hunters are buying holiday homes, so demand has not been negatively impacted.” 

Reach out now to the Sotogrande property experts! 

Would you like to firm up your own interest in buying, selling, renting or letting property in Sotogrande? If so, it’s easy to get in touch with the BM Sotogrande team – and when you do, we can provide tailored advice, guidance and assistance, so that you can realise your ambitions in the ever-busy Costa del Sol property sector.

[fintasticpvsite-blog]

Retirement in Puerto Vallarta - What is Heading on South of the Border?

Consciousness, toddler boomers never be late for the celebration! If you have not observed what's possible on south of the border, possessing only read through about illegal immigration north of the border, the subsequent may perhaps probably show to be fairly awakening and insightful.

Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, a sleepy insignificant Mexican fishing village positioned in the foothills of the Sierra Madres on Banderas Bay alongside the Mexican Riviera is no longer sleepy or insignificant. The populace has in essence exploded due to the fact the filming of "The Night time of the Iguana" in 1963. Vallarta has grown from two,000 inhabitants prior to 1963 to the most recent decide of 350,000 inhabitants in 2007. Suitable now, the populace of much better PV would make it the subsequent most significant town in the Mexican condition of Jalisco, only driving Guadalajara. You should refer to the pursuing graph in purchase to check this explosive improvement and its projection for the adhering to 10 many a long time: (Make confident you pay back a pay a visit to to the web web page under for graph facts) Placing this in issue of view, you are going to discover the earlier pointed out chart implies that Vallarta has now attained the sizing of St. Louis and assuming the projected growth retains accurate, it will be equivalent in proportions to Cleveland in just ten many years. The sizeable just take take note of curiosity is that St Louis, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and so forth., will all most likely display minimum to no, it's possible even detrimental growth, whilst PV is expected to develop by still an additional 50% all through the upcoming 10 many many years. Now, we inquire, what is heading on down there? First, permit us look at who's moving there. The complete sector of Vallarta is dependent on tourism and the immigration of North Us inhabitants. The US information from the IRS returns implies a development from two hundred,000 US citizens a number of yrs ago to 750,000 Men and women in america residing in Mexico in 2005. Of the 750,000 Us people, we can only estimate that fifty,000 Men and women in the us and Canadians now get hold of Vallarta household. With the tens of many quantities of condos and villas at this time beneath developing or in the ten 12 months placing up section, we can only envision that by 2017, the North American inhabitants in better PV will be someplace relating to a hundred,000 and a hundred and fifty,000 retirees. The adhering to are some of the very good motives for this explosive progress: Local climate--The 7 month "exceptional time" of November by implies of Might well has an regular every day temperature of seventy three*F with nearly no probability of rain. Environment--Vallarta, positioned in the foothills of the Sierra Madres on the Banderas Bay, a person specific of the best and most amazing bays in the globe, is in the center of the Mexican Riviera on the Pacific Ocean. Beautiful seashore locations, rocky cliffs, mountain sides overlooking the bay, tropical bouquets and wildlife, and all the sights that a human being would hope to obtain in Paradise. Protected--With tourism getting the existence blood of the economic technique, North People today in the usa are "off restrictions" pertaining to any style of authorized workout. Because guns are strictly prohibited in Mexico, burglaries, robberies, etcetera., are pretty much unheard of. The principal aim of most all of the youthful technology of natives is to ensure all North People in america a pleasurable and safe just take a seem at to Paradise so that they are likely to return shortly and usually. Stress of a terrorist attack in Vallarta? Ignore it! Friendliness--In 2001, a viewers poll taken by Conde Nast journal in depth Vallarta as the friendliest vacation resort wanted destination in the world. The locals take care of North People today in the us with dignity, respect, and as mates, household, and basically as royalty. Cleanse up Foods and H2o--The explosive populace expansion has triggered a full revamping and rising of the town infrastructure. This functions the freeway method, electrical power period and distribution, and of education course, consuming drinking water treatment and distribution units. The water is pure and harmless to consume from the tap during the city. All meals things merchandise are now available in the pretty a several new contemporary supermarkets equivalent to the very best in the States. Foodstuff for home or restaurant consumption is intently monitored for cleanliness and managed as in North The usa. Health care treatment method--Two new enormous modern hospitals and just a person lesser present day-day clinic in Vallarta are totally capable of handling all emergencies as proficiently as challenging surgical strategies. Contemporary dental clinics are also in Vallarta offering crowns, caps, implants, as correctly as all the basic dental solutions. When you loved this information along with you wish to be given more information about Fishing in Vallarta generously pay a visit to our own site. All of the wellness pros and dentists converse English and loads of of them have professional at the pretty the very least some qualified coaching in the States. Good friends--Every single single North American that you see in Vallarta, and they are easy to location, is maybe on family vacation or retired, i.e., none of them have to go to accomplish tomorrow! They are all open up to new friendships and new comers are frequently welcome. It can be 1 substantial party with no looming pressures of the business workplace or the commuter vacation in the morning. Language--Due to the fact the general overall economy in PV is based mostly on tourism, it is crucial to connect English. As a outcome, it is estimated that at the really least 80% of the youthful era is now conversing or at least knowing English. Dialogue is not a concern in Vallarta and there is no have to have to come across out Spanish. Vacation Time--Even with the truth that Vallarta is on the equivalent latitude as Hawaii, it is only two to 3 a number of several hours from most of the US cities. All the highways coming down from the US are now super fashionable tollroads and the generate to PV can be manufactured in two instances from the border. Connectivity--With higher velocity on line help available citywide, on the internet primarily dependent telecommunications, and satellite Television available all about the position, you have the correct very same get in contact with with the entire globe that you would have where ever in the US or Canada. Actions--Overall planet class deep sea fishing has been for a number of many years, and will commonly be, a big activity in Vallarta. There are now 7 lovely golfing plans with more beneath enhancement. There are hundreds of tennis courts, h2o pursuits, night day to day residing galore, and as nicely a lot of golf equipment and providers to level out. If you have nothing at all to do in PV, it actually is only for the reason that which is your alternate! Benefit of Residing--The expense of common staples is about the comparable as in North The united states, even so, housing is roughly fifty % the price and housing similar taxes are a portion of these in the States. All products and solutions and products and services are a 50 % to a third of these in the US like specialist healthcare and dental remedy just simply because labor fees are so substantially decreased. The selling price of eating, outdoor routines, and so forth., are really substantially in line with folks in the States. Financial Security--The Mexican peso, at somewhere all over ten.8 pesos per US dollar, has held firm for the earlier 10 a lot of decades. There are no devaluation troubles at this time as the Mexican economic system booms. Political Stability--The PAN occasion has ruled in Mexico specified that 2000 and will remain in energy at minimum right up until 2012, assuring a twelve calendar year consecutive operate of Mexico getting to be governed by Harvard graduates! Avoidable to say, they are specialist-US and pleasant to the North. Economical expense--Residence values have tripled for the duration of the earlier ten yrs and are envisioned to double once again all via the future 5 yrs. With the booming all round financial state, the Mexican inventory marketplace has also tripled by the past 10 quite a few a long time. There is no gradual down of progress in the foreseeable impending. With any luck ,, the earlier described 15 merchandise will offer some rationalization for the booming financial process and explosive expansion in Vallarta. They say that the party's not previously mentioned, that it has only just began. The Mexican Countrywide Tourism Improvement Basis (Fonatur), has specified a 30 mile stretch of pristine Pacific Ocean shoreline north of Vallarta as the new Riviera Nayarit, anywhere a lot more than five billion kilos will be invested throughout the pursuing 10 quite a few decades building 30,000 new occupations as they develop shut to twenty,000 new condos, villas, motels, and so forth. As the North Men and women continue on to flock to Paradise, the infrastructure advancement and forthcoming scheduling functions continue at a torrid tempo.  

[statetalks]

Are There More Democrats Or Republicans In The Usa

If A Party Gets What It Wants In The Pursuit Of Delivering Something Most People Want Most Of The Time So Be It

This mayor joining the GOP says theres no Democratic Party anymore’

Theres nothing morally wrong with being the party of corporate interests. Theres nothing wrong, for that matter, with viewing politics as the preserve of the few, not the many. Whats wrong is lying about it. Whats wrong is treating the opposition as if it does not have a legitimate claim. Whats wrong is setting off a conflagration of white-power fury that consumes nearly everything, even the republic itself, in order to slake a thirst for power. The day Joe Biden decided to run for president was the day this white-power fury burned through Charlottesville, screaming, Jews will not replace us. That day, according to published reports, is the day Biden chose to fight to restore the soul of America.

Maybe hes full of it. Maybe Biden and the Democrats dont really believe what they say when they talk about everyone being in this together. Thats certainly what the Republicans and their media allies believe. A critic said Thursday that we can expect to see from Biden lofty rhetoric about unity, while acting below the radar to smash norms to implement the Left-wing agenda. The same day, a Times reporter asked the White House press secretary why the administration has not offered a bipartisan fig leaf to the Republicans, given the president putting so much emphasis on unity. Maybe the Democrats dont mean what they say. Maybe its just politics-as-usual.

Investor George Marcus And His Wife Judith Gave $9610125 Mostly To Democrats

Total donations: $9,610,125

Net worth: $1.5 billion

George Marcus is the founder of real-estate brokerage Marcus & Millichap Company, according to the companys website. Marcus is also the chairman of Essex Property Trust, a multi-family real-estate investment trust, and he serves on the board of California-based commercial bank Greater Bay Bancorp.

The Marcuses gave $10,400 to Republicans in 2018, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The rest went to Democrats.

Republican Presidents Of The 20th Century

Theodore Roosevelt, 26th, 19011909: The “Trust Buster” is considered one of America’s greatest presidents. He was charismatic and larger than life. He was also the youngest of all the presidents, entering office at age 42. In contrast to later Republican presidents, Roosevelt fought hard to limit the powers of large oil and railroad companies.

William H. Taft, 27th, 19091913: Taft may be best known for supporting “Dollar Diplomacy,” the idea that US foreign policy should provide stability with the ultimate goal of promoting American commercial ventures. He was the only president who served as a justice of the Supreme Court .

Warren G. Harding, 29th, 19211923: Harding served just one day shy of three years, dying of a heart attack while in office. His presidency saw the end of World War I but was marked by scandals involving bribery, fraud, and conspiracy.

Also Check: Are More Democrats Or Republicans On Welfare

If There Are P Republicans Then In Terms Of P What Percentage Of Wheeling County

There are one or more reasons why you chose that person to be your friend. While democrats believe in supporting a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, republicans in a little more than 50 years there will be no majority race in the us. Not one nra member, tea party member, nor republican conservative was involved in these shootings and. There is a good reason for this asymmetry, write grossmann and hopkins. Republicans are more skeptical of the theory of evolution, though by a surprisingly slim margin with 39 percent of them rejecting it as compared to 30 percent of democrats.

There should a strong federal government. The supreme court should have jurisdiction over the legislative branch. There was almost no partisan imbalance among in terms of dollar value, less than a third of individual donations went to democrats. What republican and democrats believe. There are many benefits to timing your practice, including

On the other hand, the republican party is pretty much younger than the democratic party. Instead, they’ve told a lie to people they stiffed on education and have bled them dry just a bit more. Clearly, there is a problem with democrats and guns. Since 1945, democratic presidents have put forward 39 percent more policy proposals than republican presidents, and 62 percent more domestic policy proposals. Who can tell from this story?

Widest Perception Gap At Political Extremes

In one of the largest national studies of Americas polarization ever conducted, More in Commons Hidden Tribes report identified seven political tribes:

The Hidden Tribes of America

The Perception Gap study builds on these insights. It finds that the most partisan, politically active Americans a group we call the Wings have deeply distorted perceptions of the other side. The two groups with the widest Perception Gaps are the Progressive Activists and the Devoted Conservativesthe most ideological and committed groups of Democrats and Republicans.

And which is the most accurate segment? Surprisingly, its the Politically Disengaged. They are fully three times more accurate in their estimates of political opponents than members of either of these Wing groups. The V-shaped Perception Gap shows that the less invested you are in politics today, the less distorted your perception of politics.

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At Least 60 Afghans And 13 Us Service Members Killed By Suicide Bombers And Gunmen Outside Kabul Airport: Us Officials

Two suicide bombers and gunmen attacked crowds of Afghans flocking to Kabul’s airport Thursday, transforming a scene of desperation into one of horror in the waning days of an airlift for those fleeing the Taliban takeover. At least 60 Afghans and 13 U.S. troops were killed, Afghan and U.S. officials said.

Are There More Democrats Than Republicans In The United States

I have been thinking about the Democratic Party and whether or not its members are more numerous than the opposing faction.

Evidence to suggest this is the case:

This party is expected to win the popular vote for president seven out of eight times since 1992. Please don’t say “this hasn’t happened yet”. If this bothers you, say 6 out of 7. The party has received 51.9 percent of the votes cast in presidential elections from 1992 to 2016 for it or its opponent, the Republican Party. This shows that 2012 was the mean election in popular vote as of 2016. Party registration in states that register by party says this same thing. Trump’s approval has not gone above 50 percent ever as president on 538. A plurality of Americans consistently supported impeachment by 2 to 5 points while it was happening.

This suggests that the partisan lean the American electorate is about D+4. I believe that it might be closer to D+5 now for various reasons and the fact that 2012 was the mean result. This can get a little bit fuzzy because of independents.

If we look at opinion polling, Gallup has collated party affiliation polls back to 2004. The most recent poll at the time of writing gives a D+11 advantage. Looking just at the net Republican/Democrat advantage, ignoring Independents, we can create the graph below – with positive percentages representing a Democrat lead, and negative percentages representing a Republican lead.

To give a theoretical perspective on this:

Read Also: How Do Republicans Really Feel About Trump

The Republican Party General Policy And Political Values

The Republican Party is often referred to as the GOP. This abbreviation stands for Grand Old Party. Its logo is an elephant. The Republican Party is known to support right-leaning ideologies of conservatism, social conservatism, and economic libertarianism, among other -isms. Thus, Republicans broadly advocate for traditional values, a low degree of government interference, and large support of the private sector.

One main standpoint of the Republican Party platform is a strong focus on the family and individual freedom. Generally, the Republican Party therefore often tends to promote states and local rights. That means that they often wish for federal regulations to play a lesser role in policymaking. Furthermore, the GOP has a pro-business-oriented platform. Thus, the party advocates for businesses to exist in a free market instead of being impacted by tight government regulations.

Chart 1 And Table 2: Nationwide Party Registration Trends Since 2000

More Republicans registered to vote than Democrats

Since 2000, the nationwide proportion of registered Democratic and Republican voters in party registration states have both gone down, while the percentage of registered independents has steadily grown. The latter has nearly reached the nationwide percentage of registered Republicans, which has long been second nationally to the Democrats. Altogether, the combined number of registered Democrats and Republicans, which was 77% in October 2000, is now down to 69%, while the proportion of registered independents over the same period has increased from 22% to 28%.

Note: Based on active registered voters in states where the number of active and inactive registrants is listed. In the election-eve 2000, 2008, and 2016 entries, Independents include a comparatively small number of registered miscellaneous voters who do not fit into a particular category. Percentages do not add to 100 since the small percentage of registered third party voters is not included.

Richard Wingers monthly newsletter, Ballot Access News, for election-eve party registration numbers in 2000, 2008, and 2016; the websites of state election offices for July 2018.

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Gallup: Democrats Now Outnumber Republicans By 9 Percentage Points Thanks To Independents

“I think what we have to do as a party is battle the damage to the Democratic brand,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Jamie Harrison said on The Daily Beast‘s latest New Abnormal podcast. Gallup reported Wednesday that, at least relatively speaking, the Democratic brand is doing pretty good.

In the first quarter of 2021, 49 percent of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or independents with Democratic leanings, versus 40 percent for Republicans and GOP leaders, Gallup said. “The 9-percentage-point Democratic advantage is the largest Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012. In recent years, Democratic advantages have typically been between 4 and 6 percentage points.”

New Gallup polling finds that in the first quarter of 2021, an average of 49% of Americans identify with/lean toward the Democratic Party, versus 40 percent for Republicans.

That’s the largest gap since 2012:

Greg Sargent

Party identification, polled on every Gallup survey, is “something that we think is important to track to give a sense to the relevant strength of the two parties at any one point in time and how party preferences are responding to events,”Gallup senior editor Jeff Jones told USA Today.

More stories from theweek.com

More Than Half Of Young Americans Are Going Through An Extended Period Of Feeling Down Depressed Or Hopeless In Recent Weeks; 28% Have Had Thoughts That They Would Be Better Off Dead Or Of Hurting Themself In Some Way

Fifty-one percent of young Americans say that at least several days in the last two weeks they have felt down, depressed, or hopeless19% say they feel this way more than half of the time. In addition, 68% have little energy, 59% say they have trouble with sleep, 52% find little pleasure in doing things. 49% have a poor appetite or are over-eating, 48% cite trouble concentrating, 32% are moving so slowly, or are fidgety to the point that others notice and 28% have had thoughts of self-harm

Among those most likely to experience bouts of severe depression triggering thoughts that they would be better off dead or hurting themself are young people of color , whites without a college experience , rural Americans , and young Americans not registered to vote .

In the last two weeks, 53% of college students have said that their mental health has been negatively impacted by school or work-related issues; overall 34% have been negatively impacted by the coronavirus, 29% self-image, 29% personal relationships, 28% social isolation, 25% economic concerns, 22% health concernsand 21% politics .

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Past Jumps In Party Affiliations

The bump in Democratic affiliation following Biden’s inauguration mirrors that of former President Barack Obama’s first term, Jones said.

“That was really the high point that we’ve seen; kind of the 2006-2009 period, when really the majority of Americans either identified as Democrats outright or were independents but they leaned toward the party,” he said. “Our data on this only goes back to the ’90s, but it’s pretty much the only time we consistently had one party with the majority of Americans on their side.”

Republican advantages, though rarer and more short-lived, followed the Gulf War in 1991 when George H.W. Bush was in office and the 9/11 terrorist attacks during President George W. Bush’s term, according to Gallup. More people also reported GOP affiliation after the 1994, 2010 and 2014 midterm elections.

Whether the Republican Party can regain advantage during the 2022 midterm elections may rely on the successes of the Biden administration, according to Jones.

“A lot of it is going to depend on how things go over the course of the year. If things get better with the coronavirus and the economy bounces back and a lot of people expect Biden can keep relatively strong approval ratings, then that will be better for the Democrats,” Jones said. “But if things start to get worse unemployment goes up or coronavirus gets worse  then his approval is going to go down. It’s going to make things a lot better for the Republican Party for the midterm next year.”

They Deliberately Destroy Moral Standards To Consolidate Power

Yale historian Timothy Snyder argues compellingly in The Road to Unfreedom, as well as in many talks, that oligarchs consolidating power and wealth benefit from creating an atmosphere of uncertainty, disbelief in facts, making it seem like political parties and leaders are uniformly corrupt, so there is nothing that can be done. It is what it is. If this was not so relevant for previous administrations, now we must admit that this is what it is. An administration that surpasses previous ones in corruption is possible because of a groundwork laid over decades of practices that make democracy, equity, and social good far secondary to wealth and power.

Read Also: How Did Republicans Do In The Primaries

Where Republicans And Democrats Differ The Most

But a more telling metric may be the difference between Democrats’ and Republicans ratings. How much more did one party favor a state than the other party? The graphic below shows how much higher the win percentage was among people of that party.  

For example, Californias win percentage was 79% among Democrats, but 24% among Republicans, a difference of 55 percentage points. Likewise, Kentuckys win percentage was 68% among Republicans, only 34% among Democrats, for a difference in 35 points . 

See the difference in scores for Republicans and Democrats for all 50 states below:

Histories Of The Parties

The Democratic party started in 1828 as anti-federalist sentiments began to form. The Republican party formed a few decades later, in 1854, with the formation of the party to stopping slavery, which they viewed to be unconstitutional.

The difference between a democrat and a republican has changed many, many times throughout history. Democrats used to be considered more conservative, while the republican party fought for more progressive ideas. These ideals have switched over time.

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Florida Vs California: How Two States Tackled Covid

The researchers theorized that one reason for the change is that Democrats were in charge of states where people who had the virus first arrived in the country but Republicans were less stringent about safeguards, which could have contributed to their states’ ultimately higher incidence and death rates.

“The early trends could be explained by high Covid-19 cases and deaths among Democratic-led states that are home to initial ports of entry for the virus in early 2020,” the researchers wrote. “However, the subsequent reversal in trends, particularly with respect to testing, may reflect policy differences that could have facilitated the spread of the virus.”

The study, which which was published in the peer-reviewed American Journal of Preventive Medicine, examined Covid-19 “incidence, death, testing, and test positivity rates from March 15 through December 15, 2020,” when there were 16 million confirmed cases in the U.S. and 300,000 deaths. It focused on per-capita infection and death rates in the 26 GOP-led states and 24 Democratic-led states and Washington, D.C., and made statistical adjustments for issues such as population density.

But “policy differences” between the Republican and Democratic leaders emerged as a big factor for the reversal of the states’ fortunes, the study suggests.

One of the most concerning things last year is the politicization of public health restrictions,” Lee said. “Theyre not opinions, theyre based on evidence.

In Her New Book Congress And Us Veterans: From The Gi Bill To The Va Crisis Stevens Assistant Professor Lindsey Cormack Evaluates How The Parties Legislate And Communicate Veterans Policies

Gravitas: US Election 2020 | How Republicans & Democrats are wooing Indian Americans

More than 18 million veterans live in the United States today, according to the latest census, and with worldwide presence and ongoing wars, the military enlists 1.2 million active and 800,000 reserve military personnel across the branches. As a nation, we look up to those who serve. Its a uniting opinion, and 95% of Americans believe its the duty of government to support veterans when they return to the homefront.

The role of devising policies that benefit former soldiers now falls to Congress, and so the creation and communication of veterans policies, like most things in Washington, is subject to the realities of party politics. Republicans are viewed as the party of veterans, public opinion and voting data says so. But in her new book, Stevens Assistant Professor Lindsey Cormack questions how that came to be, as her research shows that congressional Democrats, more often than not, are the ones working to enhance veteran benefits.

On a continuum of legislative behavior, we have one end populated by the dedicated workhorses who draft legislation, hammer out compromises, and get into the weeds of complicated policy questions, Cormack writes in her book. On the other end, there are show ponies that care more about pumping out media sound bites or trying to get the next viral video on YouTube.

Moreover, there is a difference between Republican members of Congress expressing support for veterans benefits and actively legislating to accomplish it.

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Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg Donated Over $95 Million Nearly All Of It To Democrats

Total donations: $95,098,168

Net worth: $52.4 billion

Michael Bloomberg, 77, is the founder and CEO of financial media company Bloomberg LP.

Bloomberg will spend $500 million on the 2020 election in hopes of defeating Trump, Politico reported in February. On November 7, The New York Times reported that he was actively preparing to enter the Democratic primary.

Americas Top 10 Richest Families

Walton Republican  The family owns the Walmart corporation. The Walton family fortune is estimated to be about $130 billion. Koch Republican  Businessmen, owners of Koch Industries, a manufacturing company. Koch brothers have a net worth of about $41 billion each .  Republican  Own the Mars candy company. The three children of founder Forrest Mars are worth about $78 billion together. Cargill-MacMillan Republican  The Cargill-MacMillan family owns 90 percent of the largest privately-owned corporation in the U.S. The family, as a whole, is worth about $49 billion. Cox Democrat  The Cox family owns a number of auto consumer sites and services . They have an estimated net worth of $41 billion. Johnson  Republican  The Johnson family is known for their cleaning products and hygiene products. They are valued at $30 billion. Pritzker Both  Founders of Hyatt. The family has a combined value of $29 billion in 2017. Johnson  Republican  Overseers at Fidelity, ensuring the cash of millions of Americans. The family has a combined net worth of $28.5 billion. Hearst Republican  The Hearst family owns one of Americas largest media companies. The family is valued at $28 billion. Duncan Republican  The Duncan family works mostly with oil and pipelines. The family is valued at about $21.5 billion.

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Democrats Got Millions More Votes So How Did Republicans Win The Senate

Senate electoral process means although Democrats received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, that does not translate to more seats

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The 2018 midterm elections brought significant gains for Democrats, who retook the House of Representatives and snatched several governorships from the grip of Republicans.

But some were left questioning why Democrats suffered a series of setbacks that prevented the party from picking up even more seats and, perhaps most consequentially, left the US Senate in Republican hands.

Among the most eye-catching was a statistic showing Democrats led Republicans by more than 12 million votes in Senate races, and yet still suffered losses on the night and failed to win a majority of seats in the chamber.

Constitutional experts said the discrepancy between votes cast and seats won was the result of misplaced ire that ignored the Senate electoral process.

Because each state gets two senators, irrespective of population, states such as Wyoming have as many seats as California, despite the latter having more than 60 times the population. The smaller states also tend to be the more rural, and rural areas traditionally favor Republicans.

This year, because Democrats were defending more seats, including California, they received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, but that does not translate to more seats.

The rise of minority rule in America is now unmistakable

Origins Of The Color Scheme

The colors red and blue are also featured on the United States flag. Traditional political mapmakers, at least throughout the 20th century, had used blue to represent the modern-day Republicans, as well as the earlier Federalist Party. This may have been a holdover from the Civil War, during which the predominantly Republican north was considered “blue”. However, at that time, a maker of widely-sold maps accompanied them with blue pencils in order to mark Confederate force movements, while red was for the union.

Later, in the 1888 presidential election, Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison used maps that coded blue for the Republicans, the color perceived to represent the Union and “Lincoln‘s Party”, and red for the Democrats. The parties themselves had no official colors, with candidates variously using either or both of the national color palette of red and blue .

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Reality Check #4: The Electoral College And The Senate Are Profoundly Undemocraticand Were Stuck With Them

Because the Constitution set up a state-by-state system for picking presidents, the massive Democratic majorities we now see in California and New York often mislead us about the partys national electoral prospects. In 2016, Hillary Clintons 3-million-vote plurality came entirely from California. In 2020, Bidens 7-million-vote edge came entirely from California and New York. These are largely what election experts call wasted votesDemocratic votes that dont, ultimately, help the Democrat to win. That imbalance explains why Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 and came within a handful of votes in three states from doing the same last November, despite his decisive popular-vote losses.

The response from aggrieved Democrats? Abolish the Electoral College! In practice, theyd need to get two-thirds of the House and Senate, and three-fourths of the state legislatures, to ditch the process that gives Republicans their only plausible chance these days to win the White House. Shortly after the 2016 election, Gallup found that Republican support for abolishing the electoral college had dropped to 19 percent. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, a state-by-state scheme to effectively abolish the Electoral College without changing the Constitution, hasnt seen support from a single red or purple state.

source https://www.patriotsnet.com/are-there-more-democrats-or-republicans-in-the-usa/

[radiosat24web]

#radiosat24web #easternmediterraneaneuropeanunion #easternmediterraneaneuropeanunioncountries #easternmediterraneancountriesmap #easternmediterraneanregion #states #communities #localgovernment #economicdevelopment #socialopportunity #sportsandfreetime #dailypressreview #radiosat24web #friday #afternoon #goldworldprice Gold rises on concerns surrounding the spread of the Delta strain Dubai - Radio Sat24web - Gold rose Friday, July 2nd, boosted by concerns surrounding the spread of the delta strain of the coronavirus, while investors awaited US non-farm payrolls data as it could influence the timing of the Fed's policy shift. And gold rose in spot transactions 0.1% to $ 1778.52 an ounce by 05:35 GMT. Gold is down 0.1% since the start of the week. US gold futures added 0.1% to $1,778. The most contagious delta strain of the Corona virus caused countries in Asia and Europe to back off plans to reopen, while the White House said it would send special teams to hot spots across the country to combat infection. The focus is now on the US non-farm payrolls data due by 12:30 GMT, which is likely to show an increase of 690,000 jobs last month according to a Radio Sat24web poll. Data on the number of US private sector workers and jobless claims released this week showed that the labor market is gaining speed as the economy fully reopens. The dollar is stabilizing near a three-month high, which raises the cost of gold to holders of other currencies. As for other precious metals, silver rose 0.2% to $26.07 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.6% to $1,088.73. Palladium fell 0.1% to $ 2762.16 and is heading for the second consecutive weekly decline. #radiosat24web https://www.instagram.com/p/CQ05jZit9mJ/?utm_medium=tumblr

[newstfionline]

Thursday, May 27, 2021

2020 vote controversy continues (The Hill, American Association for Public Opinion Research) A new Reuters-Ipsos poll released Tuesday reveals that 53% of Republicans think that Trump remains the “true president” of the United States, despite losing to President Biden last year by roughly seven million votes nationally. Even more—61%—believe either strongly or somewhat strongly that the 2020 election was “stolen” from the former president. 56% of Republican respondents said that the election had been marred by illegal voting or “election rigging,” a claim that Trump has made repeatedly for almost seven months since Election Day.

The American parole system is an endless trap (Washington Post) When William Palmer was 17, he put on a ski mask and tried to rob a man—a crime that landed him in prison for three decades. Now 49, he’s out and on parole. He had barely been out of prison a year, and already he’d been back to jail three times for a total of 20 days. That’s because, though Palmer was out of prison, he was now on parole. As such, he had to comply with a state-mandated list of supervisory conditions, along with 31 “special conditions” that had been imposed on him specifically—or risk getting sent to prison again. The conditions affected where he could go, the activities he could join, with whom he could socialize and the amount of privacy he had. In 2018, 1 out of every 58 American adults—roughly 4.4 million people—was under community supervision, the catchall term for probation and parole. The average supervisee must follow 17 standard conditions. If they break any of these, they could be reincarcerated. As Jake Horowitz, director of the Public Safety Performance Project at the Pew Charitable Trusts, explains, “The system is feeding on itself.” Or look to Hamlet, who famously quipped, “There’s the rub”: A supervision system meant to encourage rehabilitation outside of prison often stands in the way of its own goal. And so, people like Palmer end up living in limbo, no longer incarcerated but trapped by a government that doesn’t trust them to be free. “I’m not breaking laws,” Palmer told me. “I’m not hurting people. I’m doing life the best way I can. ... You begin to wonder, ‘Is this what I got out for?’ I thought parole was supposed to help me, and all it’s doing is preventing me from doing the things I was prepared to do.”

George Floyd’s killing sparked a global reckoning (Washington Post) The murder of George Floyd sparked moments of reckoning that reverberated far beyond the United States. The graphic video that captured the Black man’s final moments under the knee of a White police officer on a street in Minneapolis found broad resonance, sparking demonstrations that forced countries to grapple with their own histories of police brutality, racism, inequality and colonial transgressions. The global movement raised expectations for change. Protests in Australia, Brazil, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and elsewhere turned Floyd’s name and some of his final words, “I can’t breathe,” into a rallying cry heard around the world. In the rubble of a ruined building in Syria, artist Aziz Asmar painted Floyd’s face, telling Time that the scene of police brutality thousands of miles away struck a chord with civilians who faced gas attacks. Other murals in tribute to Floyd sprang up in England, Italy, Kenya, Pakistan and the West Bank.

The Central California Town That Keeps Sinking (NYT) In California’s San Joaquin Valley, the farming town of Corcoran has a multimillion-dollar problem. Over the past 14 years, the town has sunk as much as 11.5 feet in some places—enough to swallow the entire first floor of a two-story house and to at times make Corcoran one of the fastest-sinking areas in the country, according to experts with the United States Geological Survey. Subsidence is the technical term for the phenomenon—the slow-motion deflation of land that occurs when large amounts of water are withdrawn from deep underground, causing underlying sediments to fall in on themselves. Each year, Corcoran’s entire 7.47 square miles and its 21,960 residents sink just a little bit, as the soil dips anywhere from a few inches to nearly two feet. The casings of drinking-water wells have been crushed. Flood zones have shifted. The town levee had to be rebuilt at a cost of $10 million—residents’ property tax bills increased roughly $200 a year for three years, a steep price in a place where the median income is $40,000. In Corcoran and other parts of the San Joaquin Valley, the land has gradually but steadily dropped primarily because agricultural companies have for decades pumped underground water to irrigate their crops, according to the U.S.G.S. California Water Science Center.

Countries eager to reopen to travel as pandemic recedes (AP) Countries reliant on tourism are racing to reopen borders and revive economies decimated by the pandemic. The World Travel & Tourism Council estimates that the sector lost nearly $4.5 trillion and 62 million jobs last year. Airlines alone lost $126 billion last year and are on track to lose another $48 billion this year, according to their largest trade group. The rollout of vaccines against COVID-19 is giving government officials in many countries new confidence to welcome visitors. But time is critical. “Summer is a strong season for most markets, particularly Europe and the U.K. We really hope to see restrictions ease,” said Virginia Messina, interim leader of the World Travel & Tourism Council.

Pentagon Accelerates Withdrawal From Afghanistan (NYT) United States troops and their NATO allies intend to be out of Afghanistan by early to mid-July, well ahead of President Biden’s Sept. 11 withdrawal deadline, military officials said, in what has turned into an accelerated ending to America’s longest war. But the race to the exits, which has picked up steam as planeloads of equipment and troops are flown out of the country, leaves the United States grappling with huge unresolved issues that officials had thought they would have more time to figure out. The Pentagon still has not determined how it will combat terrorist threats like Al Qaeda from afar after American troops leave. Nor have top Defense Department officials secured agreement from allies about repositioning American troops in other nearby countries. And administration officials are still grappling with the thorny question of whether American warplanes—most likely armed Reaper drones—will provide air support to Afghan forces to help prevent the country’s cities from falling to the Taliban.

AP Investigation: Myanmar’s junta using bodies to terrorize (AP) Two black pickups speed down an empty city street in Myanmar before coming to a sudden stop. Security forces standing in the back of the trucks begin firing at an oncoming motorbike carrying three young men. The bike swerves, crashing into a gate. More shots are fired as two of the passengers run away, while the third, Kyaw Min Latt, remains on the ground. Moans are heard as officers grab the wounded 17-year-old from the pavement, throwing his limp body into a truck bed before driving off. The incident lasted just over a minute and was captured on a CCTV camera. It is part of a growing trove of photos and videos shared on social media that’s helping expose a brutal crackdown carried out by the junta since the military’s Feb. 1 takeover. An analysis by The Associated Press and the Human Rights Center Investigations Lab at the University of California, Berkeley, identified more than 130 instances where security forces appeared to be using corpses and the bodies of the wounded to create anxiety, uncertainty, and strike fear in the civilian population. Some people have been disappeared or arrested one day and returned dead the next, their corpses mutilated with signs of torture, witnesses confirmed to AP. Though the incidents may seem random and unprovoked—including kids being shot while playing outside their homes—they are actually deliberate and systematic with the goal of demobilizing people and wearing them down, said Nick Cheesman, a researcher at Australian National University, who specializes in the politics of law and policing in Myanmar. “That,” he said, “is exactly the characteristic of state terror.”

In France, Lebanese army chief pleads for help as economic crisis worsens—sources (Reuters) Lebanon’s army chief Joseph Aoun warned France on Wednesday that an economic crisis had put the military on the verge of collapse and Paris offered emergency food and medical aid for troops in hopes of preserving law and order, sources said. France, which has led aid efforts to its former colony, has sought to pressure Lebanon’s squabbling politicians who have failed to agree on a new government and launch reforms to unlock foreign cash. Discontent is brewing among Lebanon’s security forces over a currency crash wiping out most of the value of their salaries. According to three people with knowledge of his visit to Paris, Aoun told senior French officials that the situation was untenable. Two sources said France would provide food and medical supplies for military personnel, whose salaries had fallen five or six fold in value recently, forcing many to take extra jobs. Lebanon’s pound has crashed 90% since late 2019 in a financial meltdown that poses the biggest threat to stability since the 1975-1990 civil war.

A thick blanket of ‘sea snot’ is wreaking havoc on Turkey’s coast (Washington Post) For months, Turkish fishermen in the Sea of Marmara have been running into a problem: They can’t catch fish. That’s because a thick, viscous substance known colloquially as “sea snot” is floating on the water’s surface, clogging up their nets and raising doubts about whether fish found in the inland sea would actually be safe to eat. Scientists say that the unpleasant-looking mucus is not a new phenomenon, but rising water temperatures caused by global warming may be making it worse. Pollution—including agricultural and raw sewage runoff—is also to blame. As the Guardian and numerous Turkish news outlets have reported, high levels of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Sea of Marmara, situated between the Black and Aegean Seas, are leading to an explosion of the phytoplankton populations that discharge “sea snot.” Though the mucus itself is not necessarily harmful, it can become a host to toxic microorganisms and dangerous bacteria such as E. coli. And when it forms a layer that covers the water’s surface, it can set off a harmful chain of events, preventing fish from being able to breathe, causing mass die-offs, which in turn leads to plummeting oxygen levels that choke other forms of marine life.

Assad Heads for Fourth Term (Foreign Policy) Syria’s presidential election takes place today across government-controlled areas of the country as President Bashar Al-Assad is all but assured of a fourth term. Western countries have already denounced the election. Regardless of its credibility, the vote underscores Assad’s resilience, ten years after the Syrian conflict began with the Arab Spring protests of 2011, and 21 years after he took over from his father Hafez. Today, he presides over a broken country, with much of the land east of the Euphrates controlled by Kurdish fighters, with smaller pockets elsewhere in both Turkish and rebel hands. Assad, along with the two nominal challengers in today’s vote, Abdullah Salloum Abdullah and Mahmoud Ahmad Marie, has vowed to turn around Syria’s economy. The country’s currency has collapsed in recent years. Syria’s pound traded at 47 to one U.S. dollar before the conflict, the ratio is now 4,000 to one. The toll taken on Syria’s population has been severe; 13.4 million Syrians are in need of humanitarian aid, a 20 percent increase on the previous year. Ninety percent of Syrian children are in need of humanitarian assistance, according to UNICEF.

As Gaza fighting ebbs, Israel’s communities eye each other warily (Reuters) Two days after Hamas and Israel began launching rockets and air strikes, Israel’s president called a TV station to plead with his fellow Jews and the country’s Arab minority not to turn on each other over the conflict. “Please stop this madness,” he said on May 12. The communal violence continued. At the end of it two people were killed—an Arab who died after being shot by Jews and a Jewish man who died after Arabs threw rocks at him. The manifestation of tensions that have existed in Israeli society since the country’s birth in 1948 left some questioning whether, even after Gaza-Israel hostilities subsided, inter-communal suspicion could poison relations for years to come. In mixed Jewish-Arab cities like Haifa, Acre, Lod and Jaffa, memories of far-right Israelis shouting “Death to Arabs!” and Arab youths dragging people from cars may take time to fade. For members of Israel’s Arab minority—who account for 21% of the population and are Israeli by citizenship but Palestinian by heritage and culture—it did not come out of the blue. Muslim, Druze or Christian, most are bilingual in Arabic and Hebrew, and many feel a sense of kinship with Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza.

[easyhairstylesbest]

Aries Monthly Horoscope

MONTH OF January

Monthly Snapshot

You don’t have to do it all yourself, Aries! For many Rams, 2020 was a time of shouldering an immense load of responsibility. Not only were there three planets in your dutiful and ambitious tenth house, but for the past six months, your ruling planet, Mars, has been blazing through YOUR sign, pumping up the passion but also spiking your stress levels.

The nonstop intensity levels off this month as Mars settles into grounded Taurus and your stabilizing second house. You’ll be able to prioritize and be productive—and you’ll get by with a little help from your friends. That’s a relief after so many months in the hot seat!

With Jupiter and Saturn now in Aquarius and your cool, collaborative eleventh house for the long haul, you can simmer down and make decisions guided by both your head AND your heart. Just try to make the most important ones before Mercury turns retrograde on January 30, scrambling signals and making you second-guess yourself.

Week 1: January 1-10

Yes you can!

Ready to feel anchored and clear on your priorities? This week, a brand-new energy is coming in. On Wednesday, January 6, your ruling planet, Mars, wraps an extended six-month visit to Aries (since June 27), which has been heating up your first house of personal passions, independence and fresh starts.

Normally Mars only stays in one sign for six weeks, but due to a fall retrograde, you hosted the red planet for FOUR times the usual duration. It ramped up your charisma, confidence and “It” factor—but since Mars is the “energizer bunny” of the cosmos, this passionate planet also had you going nonstop! You might have a million exciting projects and prospects, but could also feel scattered and overwhelmed.

Good news: This Wednesday, Mars enters Taurus and your grounded second house of work, money and security, staying until March 3. Your focus, determination and organization skills will be charged up by the metaphysical motivator. Pick one or two top goals, break them down into action steps and prepare to watch your ideas transform into reality. Who knew being methodical could be fun? Enjoy the deep satisfaction of making project plans and checking item after item off your list.

Since Mars can add stress and motivation in equal doses, you might have to budget for some extra expenses, including some you didn’t see coming. Necessity is the mother of invention, Aries. During this Mars transit, you could amp up your revenue streams with a bold ask or by proudly hanging your shingle for a side hustle. Who knows what that could grow into?

Week 2: January 11-17

Financial flux

Get ahold of your finances this week, Aries. Mars and Uranus, both in Taurus and your second house of money and work, make cosmic moves that demand changes.

Speedy, stressful Mars (your ruling planet) in Taurus is revving up your revenue, but it will also make your work and finances feel extra demanding. On Wednesdaclass=”body-el-link standard-body-el-link” y, January 13, Mars locks into a heated square with structured Saturn, a tense standoff that can feel like you’ve got one foot on the gas and the other on the brake. Saturn is in Aquarius and your eleventh house of teamwork, indicating that some members of the #AriesArmy could be forming their own resistance pod.

Why the backlash? Instead of getting mad, get interested. It’s likely that if these people felt heard instead of hustled, they’ll provide valuable feedback that could improve the overall outcome. That said, you’re a motivated Ram on a mission, and there’s no sense pretending otherwise. Some people may not want to move at your pace, and maybe they aren’t a fit for your 2021 plans. That’s okay—give them the choice to stay or go. You only want to work with people who are 100 percent aligned!

On Thursday, January 14, financial plateaus start turning into peaks as revolutionary Uranus ends a five-month retrograde through Taurus and your money zone that began on August 15, 2020. If your income’s been erratic or some part of your work has been stuck in stop-and-go motion, things should start to pick up speed. New sources of income or freelance gigs could pop up. With tech-savvy Uranus here, you might decide to hop aboard the cryptocurrency craze. (Fun fact: For the next two weeks, there will be ZERO retrograde planets, a great time to make some decisive moves!)

Also this Thursday, the Sun makes its annual meetup with powerhouse Pluto in your tenth house of leadership and authority. Are you truly stepping up to your greatest heights, Aries? This could be a day when you come out of hiding and show the world what a visionary you truly are!

Pay special attention to any power struggles as these two ego-driven luminaries collide. The people who seem threatened by you, or hellbent on trying to control you, could be turned into allies if you play your cards right. Rather than competing with them, see if there’s an opportunity to collaborate by playing to both of your strengths. However, if you’re constantly overstepping the same turf, it might be better to divide and conquer—or to carve out clearer boundaries. (Note: The tenth house rules fathers, so there could be unresolved “dad issues” embedded in any dicey dynamics.)

On Sunday, January 17, the planets stage an event that only happens once every seven years. Expansive Jupiter will form an embattled square with liberated Uranus. These two freedom-seeking planets can bring massive breakthroughs when they play nice, but in a square, you could find yourself pulled in dueling directions.

With Jupiter in Aquarius and your teamwork house facing down Uranus in Taurus and your stabilizing second house, you’re not sure whether to compromise or stand your ground. If something doesn’t align with your core values, going along with the group will only lead to trouble later. But don’t just dig your heels in either. Take a step back and refuse to be rushed into important decisions now. Look at the big picture and think about where you’d like to be in, say, a year. That could help you find the middle ground between acting impulsively and being stubborn at your own expense.

Week 3: January 18-24

Aquarius season begins

Welcome to Aquarius season! On Tuesday, January 19, the Sun joins Mercury, Jupiter and Saturn in the Water Bearer’s realm, staying until February 18. With all this action in your eleventh house of teamwork and technology, you could be branching out big-time, collaborating with kindred spirits whose ideas complement your own.

Heads-up: Next week, Mercury will turn retrograde, a tricky time that can mess up communication, technology and plans. Get ahead of the curve by backing up important data and making sure everyone on Team Aries clearly understands their roles and goals.

This week, your ruler, Mars, has two more intense dustups—and since Mars is the warrior planet, he’s always braced for a fight. On Wednesday, January 20, Mars will make an exact mashup with disruptive Uranus, both in Taurus and your second house of finances and security. With these two hotheaded planets merging, your “volatility index” could go through the roof. Work and money stress could push you to your edge.

On a positive note, the combination of energizing Mars and innovative Aquarius can bring a lightning-bolt moment. You could have a brilliant moneymaking idea out of left field or devise a clever way to increase your profits using technology or connecting with new markets virtually. Looking for work? A freelance gig could pop up unexpectedly—and you’d be wise to at least hear the offer because it might open some exciting doors or lead to a more permanent position.

Be careful about asking too many people for advice, especially on Saturday, January 23, when Mars gets snagged in a tough square to more-is-better Jupiter in Aquarius and your group sector. While it’s not a bad idea to get feedback before committing to any big moves, too much opinion-polling could leave you even MORE confused.

A Mars-Jupiter square can give you a wicked case of FOMO, and you might be afraid to commit to one lane lest something better come along. Be careful about sharing money with friends or signing on for a group expense this weekend. You could end up footing an unfair part of the load, whether it’s a heavy-drinking friend’s liquor tab when you’re sipping soda or being stuck playing project manager/planner while everyone else has fun.

Could this be the call to take inventory of your inner circle? Saturday is also the annual Sun-Saturn conjunction, a sobering day when you may view things through the harsh lens of reality. You could notice traits of your friends or associates that make you question whether you’re on the same page anymore. While this pessimistic vibe WILL pass, it’s worth paying attention to those tough and inconvenient truths that surface.

Whatever the case, it’s time to surround yourself with people who can be mentors or true champions of your goals. Those consumed by petty dramas won’t get you there. But aligning with colleagues who are farther along than you, or friends whose healthy relationships are #goals…well, being around them is bound to rub off on you!

Week 4: January 25-31

A miracle in the middle

Think team effort! The week kicks off with a disquieting bang on Tuesday, January 26, as the Sun in Aquarius and your eleventh house of groups squares off against disruptive Uranus in stubborn Taurus and your second house of values and income. Things could feel erratic, with a crew member (or members) coming off as impulsive or pushy.

You may need to assert yourself with a dominating person, or else you could feel whiplashed by conflicting demands at work. Set all this against a backdrop of simmering financial stress, and you’ll hit your threshold. Warning: Pushing too hard today could result in an explosive reaction—one that will be hard to walk back on when better days arrive. And since an upgrade is right around the corner, we strongly advise you to keep your temper in check.

Your payoff arrives on Thursday, January 28, when the Sun makes its annual conjunction with anything-is-possible Jupiter in imaginative Aquarius. Considered by many astrologers as the “luckiest day of the year” (and recently dubbed the Day of Miracles), you’ll experience the transformative power of teamwork. This 2021 Sun-Jupiter meetup is multiplied by a full moon in Leo and your fifth house of passion and fame. Playing well with others can attract the applause you deserve—and sharing it will only deepen the satisfaction.

Look back to the Leo new moon of August 18 for clues about what might be coming your way. You could attract buzz for a creative project or reach an exciting romantic turning point thanks to Leo’s fire. But no need for it to be lonely at the top, Aries! The collaborative Aquarian transit helps you share the spotlight with people whose ideas complement and elevate your cherished dreams. This is literally the kind of day when wishes come true.

It’s important that you use thiclass=”body-el-link standard-body-el-link” s lucky day to get fully aligned with your peeps because communicator Mercury goes retrograde in Aquarius and your group zone on Saturday, January 30—a backspin that will potentially churn up drama on Team Aries until February 20.

For the time being, make sure you’ve triple-checked everything before hitting “send” or “post.” Back up your files and inspect your tech. While you’re at it, avoid being seen as the squeakiest wheel on the team—and if possible, hold off until the end of next month on any digital launches or debuts.

LOVE & ROMANCE:

The new year starts with a sizzle then settles into a simmer, and you won’t mind a bit. Your 2021 opens with lusty Mars in Aries and romantic Venus in Sagittarius, an adventurous combo. But after January’s first week of lingering holiday heat, both love planets will make significant changes into grounded earth signs.

Since June 27, 2020, your ruling planet, Mars, has been in Aries, an extended six-month trip thanks to an autumn retrograde. Normally Mars stays in one sign for about six WEEKS, but the randy red planet has been revving up your mojo and magnetism for four times longer. It’s been exciting and stressful in equal measure, sparking newfound independence, exciting boudoir chemistry and perhaps a bold step forward with a partner.

On January 6, Mars will finally depart your sign, hunkering down in Taurus and your second house of security and sensuality until March 3. If a relationship has been fast-paced and frenzied, you can shift into a stable groove, truly considering whether your values and day-to-day lifestyles align.

Then on January 8, affectionate Venus settles into Capricorn and your grounded, goal-oriented tenth house until February 1, its first of two visits that will bookend 2021. You’ll want to know where things are headed, to make concrete plans or create more of a structure in your love life. For couples, working on a shared goal, perhaps a business, can bring you closer. Single Rams might get into a coaching program or mastermind group with others looking to create fulfilling relationships.

Keep on hitting the same blocks? Seek mentorship or programs to cultivate self-awareness and remove the obstacles that keep you from finding what you truly want. (Check out Astrostyleclass=”body-el-link standard-body-el-link” ’s new course Cultivating Relational Intelligence, produced by us and hosted by our astro-friend Colin Bedell of QueerCosmos: https://astrostyle.com/queercosmos).

Key Dates:

January 9: Venus-Mars trine

Bring on the lasting love! As affectionate Venus and passionate Mars harmonize in stable earth signs, you could have true romance with all the trimmings—sensuality and stability. Skip the “come here now go away” players and their mixed messages. A partner who makes you feel secure is suddenly the most attractive catch in town. Coupled? Mark a long-term relationship with a thoughtful gift to let your mate know how much you cherish them.

MONEY & CAREER:

  Dear Reader: To bring you cutting-edge financial and career astrology, we’ve class=”body-el-link standard-body-el-link” replaced our monthly Money & Career horoscope with an expanded new offering. And we’re bursting with excitement to announce it!

We invite you to join our free Astropreneurs community, where we’ll be sharing tools and trainings via a private Facebook group, free webinars and cosmic career coaching all through 2021 and beyond! Wheclass=”body-el-link standard-body-el-link” ther you’re an entrepreneur, a dreamer with a side hustle or just looking for deeper satisfaction from your work, we’ll guide you to your path and purpose by the stars.

Join our Astropreneurs mastermind at https://astrostyle.com/astropreneurs21.

Love Days: 28, 6

Money Days: 21, 11

Luck Days: 19, 10

Off Days: 3, 8, 16

See All Signs

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Aries Monthly Horoscope

[khalilhumam]

The impact of COVID-19 on the Italian far right: The rise of Brothers of Italy

New Post has been published on http://khalilhumam.com/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-the-italian-far-right-the-rise-of-brothers-of-italy/

The impact of COVID-19 on the Italian far right: The rise of Brothers of Italy

By Giovanna De Maio As the Italian government, led by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, received international and domestic support for its efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020, some argued that populism and nationalism had receded and that there was now a greater role for experts in politics and an overall sentiment of national cohesion during tough times. Yet a lot has changed since last spring. The human and economic toll of the coronavirus increases on a daily basis, and fierce opposition to lockdown measures and broad mask mandates have gradually taken over that sense of national unity both between Italian political forces and in public opinion. After some cooperation in the beginning, the two Italian far-right parties, the League and Brothers of Italy — who had first advocated for an immediate closure of the borders and a suspension of the Schengen freedom of movement protocol — have criticized Conte’s government for its confinement measures, migration policies, and position in the European negotiations on the Recovery Fund. Almost nine months since COVID-19 hit Europe, the League and Brothers of Italy have experienced different fortunes: The former witnessed a gradual but consistent decrease, whereas polls show that the latter is on the rise. As the September regional elections have shown, in spite of Conte’s widespread (but declining) approval ratings and the overall stability of the current government coalition, the national-populism of both the League and Brothers of Italy is alive and well, and could be represented in the next government should new elections be held prematurely.

The League: Larger and More Divided 

The League and Brothers of Italy share the same views — tough migration policies, a fierce opposition to any tax increase, and a distaste for the globalist left — and both strongly focus on the defense of Italian national identity. Both parties gained momentum after the eclipse of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (since Berlusconi was banned from holding office for several years). So far, the League has gained broader traction than Brothers of Italy. In the past few years, under the leadership of Matteo Salvini, the League abandoned its traditional secessionist stances that advocated for a federal autonomy for the northern regions of Italy, doing so to appeal to the broader public in the south of Italy. In 2018, it became the junior partner of a government coalition with the Five Star Movement which lasted until August 2019. While in power, Salvini passed the toughest regulations on migration and closed Italian harbors for NGO ships rescuing migrants at sea.

Brothers of Italy: Smaller and More Consistent 

Brothers of Italy, instead, traces its origins back to the Italian Social Movement — the party founded in 1946 in support of Benito Mussolini — whose logo Brothers of Italy integrated in the party’s symbol. While several years have passed and Brothers of Italy, in its current form, has only existed since 2012 under the leadership of Giorgia Meloni, the party continues to attract support from Italian neo-fascist groups. Contrary to the League, Brothers of Italy was never part of a government coalition given its modest success in the ballots. Despite promoting very similar narratives to Salvini’s party, Brothers of Italy has more vocally opposed abortion and euthanasia rights, as well as same-sex marriage. In its electoral program, the party specifically mentions that it seeks a “safeguard[ing] of national identity against the process of ‘Islamization’ by opposing the removal of Christian symbols from school in addition to advancing other measures to defend Christianity both domestically and internationally.”

The Impact of COVID-19 

During the COVID-19 crisis, both the League and Brothers of Italy repeatedly associated illegal immigration with the spread of COVID-19 and accused the government of applying a double standard in favor of immigrants that penalized Italian businesses and freedom of movement. However, the two parties experienced completely different trends in the polls: the League is in constant decline, slowly decreasing from 24% to an unstable 20% support while Brothers of Italy has moved from an unstable 10% to a solid 14%. The League suffered internal tensions including challengers to Salvini’s leadership from the autonomist front (namely, Luca Zaia, governor of the Veneto region) and from those who see the League as a party pursuing a national agenda  (Giancarlo Giorgetti, the League’s deputy Secretary General). Moreover, the League has more concrete political legacy to defend, since it was part of a government coalition with the Five Star Movement until 2019. The League has also extended its party narrative on a variety of fronts, weakening the clarity of its position in the eyes of the electorate. Compared to Salvini, Brothers of Italy was able to be more consistent with the themes on migration and radicalization (in particular following the terrorist attacks in France and Austria), criticizing the government on the lockdown measures, but also giving credit to Conte when Meloni thought that things were moving in the right direction. For instance, on the issue of the Recovery Fund negotiated with the EU, Meloni acknowledged that Conte had done a good job, while also saying that more could have been done. Given the growing discontent with the uncertainties and economic hardships that Italy and Europe are going through, public opinion seems to have privileged Brothers of Italy’s consistency in terms of that party’s actions, narratives, and communication. In fact, in the last regional elections in September 2020, the League and Brothers of Italy (along with Berlusconi’s Forza Italia) participated as a united coalition, and there is almost no doubt that they will do so again should new elections be held prematurely before 2023—and that their forces, combined, will attract many votes. However, it is very likely that, given the rise of Brothers of Italy, and the declining trend of support for both the League and Forza Italia, such a coalition would advance more radically conservative positions on civil liberties and immigration.

International Platforms 

Salvini and Meloni have cultivated relationships with international leaders who share their views on migration, conservativism, and skepticism toward globalization and international organizations. Compared to Brothers of Italy, the League has built more established ties with Russia, both ideological (e.g., its focus on national interests and admiration for Vladimir Putin) and financial (which the Italian courts are currently investigating). Meloni’s party, instead, was always more pragmatic, limiting its position to advocating against the sanctions on Russia that have caused significant damage to Italian companies. Both parties share quite a hawkish position on China and on protecting the Italian economy from Chinese economic influence in strategic sectors. Both Salvini and Meloni developed relations with Steve Bannon, former White House Chief Strategist and senior advisor to President Trump, who highly praised them in return, especially the League, for leading the way for “sovereignism” in Europe in the face of liberal and globalist trends. Yet between the two, Meloni was the one who heavily invested in the relationship with international conservatives in the United States. Last year, she represented the Italian right at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington, DC. More recently, Salvini and Meloni both hesitated in recognizing the electoral victory of Joe Biden, as they seem to support President Trump’s claims about potential fraud in the electoral process. On the European stage, compared to Meloni, Salvini did not show the same dedication to the cause of nationalism and anti-immigration. When he served in the European Parliament, he rarely showed up at its sessions; similarly, when he was Minister of Interior, he spent most of his time outside the Italian Parliament, campaigning and traveling, substantially stepping away from parliamentary debate. Meloni was clearer on what she stood for and more respectful of institutions. She loudly intervened in both the Italian Parliament and public squares while pushing forward the same Eurosceptic and anti-immigration narratives. These efforts allowed her to be recognized as a point of reference for international conservatives. While Salvini failed to form a common front in Europe with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Meloni received the Hungarian prime minister’s praise for having been nominated leader of the European Conservative and Reformist party in the European Parliament; Orbán expressed his hope for future collaboration to “defend Italians against migration flows and protect traditional family and Christian culture.” Looking at how Brothers of Italy has performed so far, it is likely that Meloni will continue playing an important role in both Italian and European far-right circles and therefore push for radically conservative, anti-immigration, and anti-globalist agendas both in Italy and in Europe more broadly — this time gathering wider popular support.

[expatimes]

Ardern vs Collins: New Zealand is at a crossroads

New Zealand voters go to the polls on Saturday, the culmination of a stuttering electoral campaign disrupted by a fresh outbreak of COVID-19.

A profusion of parties - spread across the ideological spectrum - have presented their vision to constituents. In a world turned upside down, voters have placed a premium on parties that appear best equipped to contain virus spread and limit the accompanying economic damage.

Advance voting suggests that the election may have a sizeable turnout, with 700,000 Kiwis placing votes over the past week. Voters are also casting ballots on whether to legalize cannabis and euthanasia.

The centrist Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, appears on course to win an outright parliamentary majority - the first time a single party would be able to rule since the nation's mixed-member proportional system of representation was brought in a quarter of a century ago.

Throughout the COVID-19 crisis, the party has consistently polled about 50 percent. That is largely due to its exceptional management of the pandemic threat: a humane, health-first approach calibrated towards saving lives while insulating the public from the economic hit associated with lockdown measures.

As such, Ardern has pitched a vote for her second term as a vote for stability.

“These are uncertain times, but we've seen what we can achieve with a strong plan,” she said in the party's first major campaign advertisement, released last month. "So, let's stick together - and let's keep moving."

That five-point plan revolves around retraining Kiwis by providing free apprenticeships in the trades; investment in “shovel-ready” infrastructure projects and upgrades to the health sector; further support for small businesses, via interest-free loans; and leveraging New Zealand's reputation as a relative safe haven to attract investment.

“Together we went hard and early to fight COVID,” says Ardern. "Our plan now is to rebuild the economy even stronger."

The party's first term in power was marked by a series of traumatic incidents: the Christchurch terror attack, the Whakaari / White Island eruption, and the new normal of life amid viral menace.

In each instance, Ardern used her clear communication skills to reassure and unify an oft-divided country; The public has positively to this good-faith brand of politics, which prioritises public wellbeing.

However, in other ways, her government - a coalition with the center-right New Zealand First, with the Green Party providing confidence and supply - has struggled to deliver flagship policies or live up to the policy goals of its 2017 election campaign.

Change has been painfully incremental, as opposed to Ardern's bold promises of “transformation” last election.

From the right, this incrementalism is cast as flagrant incompetence; from the left, as evidence that the party remains committed to the logic of the neoliberal era.

The government Kiwi Boyild real estate development project is a bleeding political wound. Efforts to mitigate the country's unconscionable levels of inequality, particularly child poverty - where, after housing costs, about one in five, or 235,400, children live in relative poverty - have barely scratched the surface.

The nation's castigatory welfare system remains in need of significant reform, yet the government has not acted on the advice of its own Welfare Expert Advisory Group, which last year recommended immediately raising benefits by up to 47 percent.

Its capitulation to NZF's opposition to its promised capital gains tax lends weight to the argument that Ardern is too timid of a leader. With the latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll putting NZF on just 2 percent, the party and its veteran leader, Winston Peters, would not make it back into parliament.

Ardern has since categorically ruled out implementing that tax at any point in her premiership - even absent NZF's opposition - effectively conceding the argument to the nation's rentier class.

Regardless, her administration has achieved noticeable improvements in the health and education sectors, in which it inherited systems run-down, most recently, by nine years of deliberate neglect by the previous National Party government.

Ardern has promised to build on those improvements, announcing a 1 billion New Zealand dollars ($ 658m) health plan last month. The plan includes a 200 million NZ dollars ($ 132m) funding boost for the country's drug-buying agency, Pharmac, and dental health grants that amount to 176 million NZ dollars ($ 116m) for people on low incomes.

If the public does deliver labor an outright majority, hopefully, Ardern abandons her more cautious, conflict-averse style of politics and further embraces the transformational, big state recovery this pandemic demands.

From the left, the hope is that the center-left Green Party crosses the 5 percent threshold for entering parliament, far from a certainty, and that Labor's polling forces it to form a coalition with the party.

The Greens strong push for legalising cannabis - with the accompanying economic, health and social benefits - is an example of common sense, progressive policymaking.

The only other parties that could force labor to the left - or are offering fresh thinking - are the Maori Party and The Opportunities Party (TOP).

The Maori Party, which is running candidates in the country's seven Maori electorates, has provided a raft of policies focused on addressing the persistent inequalities created by colonialism, particularly across justice, health and housing. It additionally wants to establish a separate Maori parliament and see Maori language and history taught as core subjects in schools.

Regardless, if Ardern continues with the incrementalist approach, her administration, which leverages international recognition for domestic legitimacy, may come to represent yet another failure of the globe's vaunted new breed of liberal democrats.

Barack Obama, Justin Trudeau and Emmanuel Macron each, like Ardern, spoke the language of “hope” and “change”. Yet, ultimately, all further entrenched a poisonous status quo.

'A poor wee thing'

In contrast to the government assured management of the pandemic, the main opposition National Party has careened chaotic throughout the crisis.

Its complete meltdown raises serious questions about its ability to cope with the pressures of managing the country at a time of global catastrophe.

From the earliest stages of the crisis, the center-right party played politics, attempting to undermine the government's health-first priorities by criticizing lockdown measures and demanding a lifting of restrictions.

It invented a homeless man in a managed isolation facility, leaked the private medical records of COVID-19 patients to the media, attempted to stir-up racist sentiment towards returning New Zealanders, engaged in conspiracy-baiting, and is on to its third leader in six months.

Unsurprisingly, the party's support has plummeted, and it is now routinely polling in the 30 percent range. In desperation, its caucus has turned to Judith “Crusher” Collins for leadership, after former leader Todd Muller, suffering panic attacks, resigned following 53 disastrous days at the party's helm.

“We're actually better. If you look at our team, our experience, ”said Collins upon being selected party leader in July,“ it's all better than Jacinda Ardern and her team. ”

Yet, the party has not fared noticeably better under Collins, who personifies a toxic current that has long run through New Zealand politics and society; one of casual nastiness and brazen self-interest.

The 61-year-old, six-term MP comes replete with significant political baggage. This ranges from allegations of conflict of interest to passing on private information for use in smear campaigns.

Despite a short-lived attempt to soften Collins's image, the leader has predictably reverted to the attack-style of politics that many New Zealanders find repellent, and which ultimately turns people off politics.

Following the first leaders' debate between Collins and Ardern in September, the National Party leader called Ardern a “poor wee thing”.

This posturing has only gotten worse since.

The party has consistently misrepresented Labor Party policies. Most recently, the MP Alfred Ngaro falsely claimed that Labour planned to decriminalise all drugs, allow full-term abortion, and "abortion based on gender and disability."

At a time when the country grapples with misinformation, Collins has additionally attacked the acclaimed investigative journalist Nicky Hager, in her book, Dirty Politics, she featured prominently.

“He is a dreadful man and what he wrote about me was disgraceful,” Collins told a gathering in Nelson. "He still needs to meet his maker."

It is difficult to determine whether the party's pumping out of bald-faced lies and misinformation is a deliberate strategy or merely reflects engrained party culture. Either way, this approach sows division and can distort public perceptions.

It is a play that right-wing demagogues around the world routinely employ.

One need look no further than the United States and the United Kingdom - Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, respectively - which have failed miserably when confronted with the most severe of reality checks: pandemic.

In terms of the policy, the party is offering nothing new.

Its centrepiece policy of temporary tax cuts appears little more than an attempt to bribe high and middle income earners.

Even worse, the cuts, worth 4.7 billion NZ dollars ($ 3bn), would be drawn from the COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund: money generated by the Reserve Bank's quantitative easing program, and set aside for a potential future outbreak of COVID- 19.

At a time when minimum wage earners have kept the country running, offering those very same people about 8 NZ dollars ($ 5.2) extra per week - or 560 NZ dollars over 16 months - speaks to the party's skewed priorities; people earning 90,000 NZ dollars would pocket an extra 58 NZ dollars per week.

Other policies appear superfluous.

The party has vowed to establish a new "National" cancer agency. Yet, the country's Cancer Control Agency - headed by a renowned cancer epidemiologist and operational for less than a year - has been well-received by medical practitioners and the public more generally.

Stripping away the spin, the party would likely put pressure on public services, by failing to increase spending to match rising costs. It looks poised to ensure further environmental degradation, promising to repeal regulations aimed at cleaning up waterways polluted by intensive farming and opening-up new off-shore oil and gas exploration.

Regardless, Collins soldiers on, spitting venom and invective - and therefore sucking up media oxygen.

By the beginning of October, she was pandering to the country's evangelical Christians, describing herself as a person of faith who believed in “miracles” while attempting to inflame the urban-rural divide.

And, of course, reaching out to the conspiratorial fringe.

"Why aren't we talking about other deaths like the flu?" she asked right-wing broadcaster, Mike Hosking, who has previously suggested that official calls for people to get COVID-19 tests was a government ploy to spread fear and win reelection.

It has been quite the display.

However, if Labor drops a few percentage points and the Greens fail to poll above 5 percent, there is a chance that Collins could head the next government.

For this, her party would need to increase its vote share to 37 percent and form a coalition with its long-term ally ACT, which is polling at 8 percent according to the latest Colmar Brunton poll.

That latter party is far-right Libertarian and has benefitted massively from National Party voter-bleed over the past six months. Its leader, David Seymour, promulgates a narrative of personal freedom to legitimise - or cover for - a raft of extreme free-market policies.

Its policies raise real alarm bells.

ACT promises to: abolish the Maori seats in parliament, hate speech laws and the Human Rights Commission; relax gun laws; scrap the Zero Carbon Act, which provides that nation's framework for addressing climate change; slash $ 7.6bn NZ dollars of “wasteful spending” a year from public services; reduce tax rates; freeze the minimum wage for three years; reinstate 90 day trials for workers; and cut winter energy payments and benefits while monitoring the spending of certain beneficiaries. And so on and so forth.

A National-ACT government, put another way: austerity.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.

#world Read full article: https://expatimes.com/?p=11748&feed_id=9541

[patriotsnet]

Are There More Democrats Or Republicans In The Usa

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/are-there-more-democrats-or-republicans-in-the-usa/

Are There More Democrats Or Republicans In The Usa

If A Party Gets What It Wants In The Pursuit Of Delivering Something Most People Want Most Of The Time So Be It

This mayor joining the GOP says theres no Democratic Party anymore’

Theres nothing morally wrong with being the party of corporate interests. Theres nothing wrong, for that matter, with viewing politics as the preserve of the few, not the many. Whats wrong is lying about it. Whats wrong is treating the opposition as if it does not have a legitimate claim. Whats wrong is setting off a conflagration of white-power fury that consumes nearly everything, even the republic itself, in order to slake a thirst for power. The day Joe Biden decided to run for president was the day this white-power fury burned through Charlottesville, screaming, Jews will not replace us. That day, according to published reports, is the day Biden chose to fight to restore the soul of America.

Maybe hes full of it. Maybe Biden and the Democrats dont really believe what they say when they talk about everyone being in this together. Thats certainly what the Republicans and their media allies believe. A critic said Thursday that we can expect to see from Biden lofty rhetoric about unity, while acting below the radar to smash norms to implement the Left-wing agenda. The same day, a Times reporter asked the White House press secretary why the administration has not offered a bipartisan fig leaf to the Republicans, given the president putting so much emphasis on unity. Maybe the Democrats dont mean what they say. Maybe its just politics-as-usual.

Investor George Marcus And His Wife Judith Gave $9610125 Mostly To Democrats

Total donations: $9,610,125

Net worth: $1.5 billion

George Marcus is the founder of real-estate brokerage Marcus & Millichap Company, according to the companys website. Marcus is also the chairman of Essex Property Trust, a multi-family real-estate investment trust, and he serves on the board of California-based commercial bank Greater Bay Bancorp.

The Marcuses gave $10,400 to Republicans in 2018, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The rest went to Democrats.

Republican Presidents Of The 20th Century

Theodore Roosevelt, 26th, 19011909: The “Trust Buster” is considered one of America’s greatest presidents. He was charismatic and larger than life. He was also the youngest of all the presidents, entering office at age 42. In contrast to later Republican presidents, Roosevelt fought hard to limit the powers of large oil and railroad companies.

William H. Taft, 27th, 19091913: Taft may be best known for supporting “Dollar Diplomacy,” the idea that US foreign policy should provide stability with the ultimate goal of promoting American commercial ventures. He was the only president who served as a justice of the Supreme Court .

Warren G. Harding, 29th, 19211923: Harding served just one day shy of three years, dying of a heart attack while in office. His presidency saw the end of World War I but was marked by scandals involving bribery, fraud, and conspiracy.

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If There Are P Republicans Then In Terms Of P What Percentage Of Wheeling County

There are one or more reasons why you chose that person to be your friend. While democrats believe in supporting a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, republicans in a little more than 50 years there will be no majority race in the us. Not one nra member, tea party member, nor republican conservative was involved in these shootings and. There is a good reason for this asymmetry, write grossmann and hopkins. Republicans are more skeptical of the theory of evolution, though by a surprisingly slim margin with 39 percent of them rejecting it as compared to 30 percent of democrats.

There should a strong federal government. The supreme court should have jurisdiction over the legislative branch. There was almost no partisan imbalance among in terms of dollar value, less than a third of individual donations went to democrats. What republican and democrats believe. There are many benefits to timing your practice, including

On the other hand, the republican party is pretty much younger than the democratic party. Instead, they’ve told a lie to people they stiffed on education and have bled them dry just a bit more. Clearly, there is a problem with democrats and guns. Since 1945, democratic presidents have put forward 39 percent more policy proposals than republican presidents, and 62 percent more domestic policy proposals. Who can tell from this story?

Widest Perception Gap At Political Extremes

In one of the largest national studies of Americas polarization ever conducted, More in Commons Hidden Tribes report identified seven political tribes:

The Hidden Tribes of America

The Perception Gap study builds on these insights. It finds that the most partisan, politically active Americans a group we call the Wings have deeply distorted perceptions of the other side. The two groups with the widest Perception Gaps are the Progressive Activists and the Devoted Conservativesthe most ideological and committed groups of Democrats and Republicans.

And which is the most accurate segment? Surprisingly, its the Politically Disengaged. They are fully three times more accurate in their estimates of political opponents than members of either of these Wing groups. The V-shaped Perception Gap shows that the less invested you are in politics today, the less distorted your perception of politics.

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At Least 60 Afghans And 13 Us Service Members Killed By Suicide Bombers And Gunmen Outside Kabul Airport: Us Officials

Two suicide bombers and gunmen attacked crowds of Afghans flocking to Kabul’s airport Thursday, transforming a scene of desperation into one of horror in the waning days of an airlift for those fleeing the Taliban takeover. At least 60 Afghans and 13 U.S. troops were killed, Afghan and U.S. officials said.

Are There More Democrats Than Republicans In The United States

I have been thinking about the Democratic Party and whether or not its members are more numerous than the opposing faction.

Evidence to suggest this is the case:

This party is expected to win the popular vote for president seven out of eight times since 1992. Please don’t say “this hasn’t happened yet”. If this bothers you, say 6 out of 7.

The party has received 51.9 percent of the votes cast in presidential elections from 1992 to 2016 for it or its opponent, the Republican Party. This shows that 2012 was the mean election in popular vote as of 2016.

Party registration in states that register by party says this same thing.

Trump’s approval has not gone above 50 percent ever as president on 538.

A plurality of Americans consistently supported impeachment by 2 to 5 points while it was happening.

This suggests that the partisan lean the American electorate is about D+4. I believe that it might be closer to D+5 now for various reasons and the fact that 2012 was the mean result. This can get a little bit fuzzy because of independents.

If we look at opinion polling, Gallup has collated party affiliation polls back to 2004. The most recent poll at the time of writing gives a D+11 advantage. Looking just at the net Republican/Democrat advantage, ignoring Independents, we can create the graph below – with positive percentages representing a Democrat lead, and negative percentages representing a Republican lead.

To give a theoretical perspective on this:

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The Republican Party General Policy And Political Values

The Republican Party is often referred to as the GOP. This abbreviation stands for Grand Old Party. Its logo is an elephant. The Republican Party is known to support right-leaning ideologies of conservatism, social conservatism, and economic libertarianism, among other -isms. Thus, Republicans broadly advocate for traditional values, a low degree of government interference, and large support of the private sector.

One main standpoint of the Republican Party platform is a strong focus on the family and individual freedom. Generally, the Republican Party therefore often tends to promote states and local rights. That means that they often wish for federal regulations to play a lesser role in policymaking. Furthermore, the GOP has a pro-business-oriented platform. Thus, the party advocates for businesses to exist in a free market instead of being impacted by tight government regulations.

Chart 1 And Table 2: Nationwide Party Registration Trends Since 2000

More Republicans registered to vote than Democrats

Since 2000, the nationwide proportion of registered Democratic and Republican voters in party registration states have both gone down, while the percentage of registered independents has steadily grown. The latter has nearly reached the nationwide percentage of registered Republicans, which has long been second nationally to the Democrats. Altogether, the combined number of registered Democrats and Republicans, which was 77% in October 2000, is now down to 69%, while the proportion of registered independents over the same period has increased from 22% to 28%.

Note: Based on active registered voters in states where the number of active and inactive registrants is listed. In the election-eve 2000, 2008, and 2016 entries, Independents include a comparatively small number of registered miscellaneous voters who do not fit into a particular category. Percentages do not add to 100 since the small percentage of registered third party voters is not included.

Richard Wingers monthly newsletter, Ballot Access News, for election-eve party registration numbers in 2000, 2008, and 2016; the websites of state election offices for July 2018.

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Gallup: Democrats Now Outnumber Republicans By 9 Percentage Points Thanks To Independents

“I think what we have to do as a party is battle the damage to the Democratic brand,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Jamie Harrison said on The Daily Beast‘s latest New Abnormal podcast. Gallup reported Wednesday that, at least relatively speaking, the Democratic brand is doing pretty good.

In the first quarter of 2021, 49 percent of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or independents with Democratic leanings, versus 40 percent for Republicans and GOP leaders, Gallup said. “The 9-percentage-point Democratic advantage is the largest Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012. In recent years, Democratic advantages have typically been between 4 and 6 percentage points.”

New Gallup polling finds that in the first quarter of 2021, an average of 49% of Americans identify with/lean toward the Democratic Party, versus 40 percent for Republicans.

That’s the largest gap since 2012:

Greg Sargent

Party identification, polled on every Gallup survey, is “something that we think is important to track to give a sense to the relevant strength of the two parties at any one point in time and how party preferences are responding to events,”Gallup senior editor Jeff Jones told USA Today.

More stories from theweek.com

More Than Half Of Young Americans Are Going Through An Extended Period Of Feeling Down Depressed Or Hopeless In Recent Weeks; 28% Have Had Thoughts That They Would Be Better Off Dead Or Of Hurting Themself In Some Way

Fifty-one percent of young Americans say that at least several days in the last two weeks they have felt down, depressed, or hopeless19% say they feel this way more than half of the time. In addition, 68% have little energy, 59% say they have trouble with sleep, 52% find little pleasure in doing things. 49% have a poor appetite or are over-eating, 48% cite trouble concentrating, 32% are moving so slowly, or are fidgety to the point that others notice and 28% have had thoughts of self-harm

Among those most likely to experience bouts of severe depression triggering thoughts that they would be better off dead or hurting themself are young people of color , whites without a college experience , rural Americans , and young Americans not registered to vote .

In the last two weeks, 53% of college students have said that their mental health has been negatively impacted by school or work-related issues; overall 34% have been negatively impacted by the coronavirus, 29% self-image, 29% personal relationships, 28% social isolation, 25% economic concerns, 22% health concernsand 21% politics .

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Past Jumps In Party Affiliations

The bump in Democratic affiliation following Biden’s inauguration mirrors that of former President Barack Obama’s first term, Jones said.

“That was really the high point that we’ve seen; kind of the 2006-2009 period, when really the majority of Americans either identified as Democrats outright or were independents but they leaned toward the party,” he said. “Our data on this only goes back to the ’90s, but it’s pretty much the only time we consistently had one party with the majority of Americans on their side.”

Republican advantages, though rarer and more short-lived, followed the Gulf War in 1991 when George H.W. Bush was in office and the 9/11 terrorist attacks during President George W. Bush’s term, according to Gallup. More people also reported GOP affiliation after the 1994, 2010 and 2014 midterm elections.

Whether the Republican Party can regain advantage during the 2022 midterm elections may rely on the successes of the Biden administration, according to Jones.

“A lot of it is going to depend on how things go over the course of the year. If things get better with the coronavirus and the economy bounces back and a lot of people expect Biden can keep relatively strong approval ratings, then that will be better for the Democrats,” Jones said. “But if things start to get worse unemployment goes up or coronavirus gets worse  then his approval is going to go down. It’s going to make things a lot better for the Republican Party for the midterm next year.”

They Deliberately Destroy Moral Standards To Consolidate Power

Yale historian Timothy Snyder argues compellingly in The Road to Unfreedom, as well as in many talks, that oligarchs consolidating power and wealth benefit from creating an atmosphere of uncertainty, disbelief in facts, making it seem like political parties and leaders are uniformly corrupt, so there is nothing that can be done. It is what it is. If this was not so relevant for previous administrations, now we must admit that this is what it is. An administration that surpasses previous ones in corruption is possible because of a groundwork laid over decades of practices that make democracy, equity, and social good far secondary to wealth and power.

Read Also: How Did Republicans Do In The Primaries

Where Republicans And Democrats Differ The Most

But a more telling metric may be the difference between Democrats’ and Republicans ratings. How much more did one party favor a state than the other party? The graphic below shows how much higher the win percentage was among people of that party.  

For example, Californias win percentage was 79% among Democrats, but 24% among Republicans, a difference of 55 percentage points. Likewise, Kentuckys win percentage was 68% among Republicans, only 34% among Democrats, for a difference in 35 points . 

See the difference in scores for Republicans and Democrats for all 50 states below:

Histories Of The Parties

The Democratic party started in 1828 as anti-federalist sentiments began to form. The Republican party formed a few decades later, in 1854, with the formation of the party to stopping slavery, which they viewed to be unconstitutional.

The difference between a democrat and a republican has changed many, many times throughout history. Democrats used to be considered more conservative, while the republican party fought for more progressive ideas. These ideals have switched over time.

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Florida Vs California: How Two States Tackled Covid

The researchers theorized that one reason for the change is that Democrats were in charge of states where people who had the virus first arrived in the country but Republicans were less stringent about safeguards, which could have contributed to their states’ ultimately higher incidence and death rates.

“The early trends could be explained by high Covid-19 cases and deaths among Democratic-led states that are home to initial ports of entry for the virus in early 2020,” the researchers wrote. “However, the subsequent reversal in trends, particularly with respect to testing, may reflect policy differences that could have facilitated the spread of the virus.”

The study, which which was published in the peer-reviewed American Journal of Preventive Medicine, examined Covid-19 “incidence, death, testing, and test positivity rates from March 15 through December 15, 2020,” when there were 16 million confirmed cases in the U.S. and 300,000 deaths. It focused on per-capita infection and death rates in the 26 GOP-led states and 24 Democratic-led states and Washington, D.C., and made statistical adjustments for issues such as population density.

But “policy differences” between the Republican and Democratic leaders emerged as a big factor for the reversal of the states’ fortunes, the study suggests.

One of the most concerning things last year is the politicization of public health restrictions,” Lee said. “Theyre not opinions, theyre based on evidence.

In Her New Book Congress And Us Veterans: From The Gi Bill To The Va Crisis Stevens Assistant Professor Lindsey Cormack Evaluates How The Parties Legislate And Communicate Veterans Policies

Gravitas: US Election 2020 | How Republicans & Democrats are wooing Indian Americans

More than 18 million veterans live in the United States today, according to the latest census, and with worldwide presence and ongoing wars, the military enlists 1.2 million active and 800,000 reserve military personnel across the branches. As a nation, we look up to those who serve. Its a uniting opinion, and 95% of Americans believe its the duty of government to support veterans when they return to the homefront.

The role of devising policies that benefit former soldiers now falls to Congress, and so the creation and communication of veterans policies, like most things in Washington, is subject to the realities of party politics. Republicans are viewed as the party of veterans, public opinion and voting data says so. But in her new book, Stevens Assistant Professor Lindsey Cormack questions how that came to be, as her research shows that congressional Democrats, more often than not, are the ones working to enhance veteran benefits.

On a continuum of legislative behavior, we have one end populated by the dedicated workhorses who draft legislation, hammer out compromises, and get into the weeds of complicated policy questions, Cormack writes in her book. On the other end, there are show ponies that care more about pumping out media sound bites or trying to get the next viral video on YouTube.

Moreover, there is a difference between Republican members of Congress expressing support for veterans benefits and actively legislating to accomplish it.

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Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg Donated Over $95 Million Nearly All Of It To Democrats

Total donations: $95,098,168

Net worth: $52.4 billion

Michael Bloomberg, 77, is the founder and CEO of financial media company Bloomberg LP.

Bloomberg will spend $500 million on the 2020 election in hopes of defeating Trump, Politico reported in February. On November 7, The New York Times reported that he was actively preparing to enter the Democratic primary.

Americas Top 10 Richest Families

Walton Republican  The family owns the Walmart corporation. The Walton family fortune is estimated to be about $130 billion.

Koch Republican  Businessmen, owners of Koch Industries, a manufacturing company. Koch brothers have a net worth of about $41 billion each .

 Republican  Own the Mars candy company. The three children of founder Forrest Mars are worth about $78 billion together.

Cargill-MacMillan Republican  The Cargill-MacMillan family owns 90 percent of the largest privately-owned corporation in the U.S. The family, as a whole, is worth about $49 billion.

Cox Democrat  The Cox family owns a number of auto consumer sites and services . They have an estimated net worth of $41 billion.

Johnson  Republican  The Johnson family is known for their cleaning products and hygiene products. They are valued at $30 billion.

Pritzker Both  Founders of Hyatt. The family has a combined value of $29 billion in 2017.

Johnson  Republican  Overseers at Fidelity, ensuring the cash of millions of Americans. The family has a combined net worth of $28.5 billion.

Hearst Republican  The Hearst family owns one of Americas largest media companies. The family is valued at $28 billion.

Duncan Republican  The Duncan family works mostly with oil and pipelines. The family is valued at about $21.5 billion.

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Democrats Got Millions More Votes So How Did Republicans Win The Senate

Senate electoral process means although Democrats received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, that does not translate to more seats

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The 2018 midterm elections brought significant gains for Democrats, who retook the House of Representatives and snatched several governorships from the grip of Republicans.

But some were left questioning why Democrats suffered a series of setbacks that prevented the party from picking up even more seats and, perhaps most consequentially, left the US Senate in Republican hands.

Among the most eye-catching was a statistic showing Democrats led Republicans by more than 12 million votes in Senate races, and yet still suffered losses on the night and failed to win a majority of seats in the chamber.

Constitutional experts said the discrepancy between votes cast and seats won was the result of misplaced ire that ignored the Senate electoral process.

Because each state gets two senators, irrespective of population, states such as Wyoming have as many seats as California, despite the latter having more than 60 times the population. The smaller states also tend to be the more rural, and rural areas traditionally favor Republicans.

This year, because Democrats were defending more seats, including California, they received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, but that does not translate to more seats.

The rise of minority rule in America is now unmistakable

Origins Of The Color Scheme

The colors red and blue are also featured on the United States flag. Traditional political mapmakers, at least throughout the 20th century, had used blue to represent the modern-day Republicans, as well as the earlier Federalist Party. This may have been a holdover from the Civil War, during which the predominantly Republican north was considered “blue”. However, at that time, a maker of widely-sold maps accompanied them with blue pencils in order to mark Confederate force movements, while red was for the union.

Later, in the 1888 presidential election, Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison used maps that coded blue for the Republicans, the color perceived to represent the Union and “Lincoln‘s Party”, and red for the Democrats. The parties themselves had no official colors, with candidates variously using either or both of the national color palette of red and blue .

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Reality Check #4: The Electoral College And The Senate Are Profoundly Undemocraticand Were Stuck With Them

Because the Constitution set up a state-by-state system for picking presidents, the massive Democratic majorities we now see in California and New York often mislead us about the partys national electoral prospects. In 2016, Hillary Clintons 3-million-vote plurality came entirely from California. In 2020, Bidens 7-million-vote edge came entirely from California and New York. These are largely what election experts call wasted votesDemocratic votes that dont, ultimately, help the Democrat to win. That imbalance explains why Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 and came within a handful of votes in three states from doing the same last November, despite his decisive popular-vote losses.

The response from aggrieved Democrats? Abolish the Electoral College! In practice, theyd need to get two-thirds of the House and Senate, and three-fourths of the state legislatures, to ditch the process that gives Republicans their only plausible chance these days to win the White House. Shortly after the 2016 election, Gallup found that Republican support for abolishing the electoral college had dropped to 19 percent. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, a state-by-state scheme to effectively abolish the Electoral College without changing the Constitution, hasnt seen support from a single red or purple state.