#hot take - aa cannot be resolved without reflecting on and providing resolution for mel's role in all this

[nightswatchdisbandmentera]

Hello! So i know that I am WAY! less knowleged than u re: asiof but I have a question about the Prophecy (AA/PTWP). I did a deep dive on it and GRRM spoke repeately about handling prophecy carefully/not too literally etc 3 weeks ago at Oxford he repeated: "you cannot have a prophecy that comes true way it was written and everbody understands it(..) it has to come true in a way you didnt understand(..)so it bites you in the ass" So rather than "who has the most obvious PTWP clues" shouldnt we theorize "how will the idea of AA/PTWP backfire on the believers" or "how can a unique/unpreditable element fill the role"? Since Im assuming GRRM stance will likely apply to the biggest prophecy in the books. What do you think? do you know theories like that? If anything, I only see "the prophecy is just nonsense!!" but that is clearly also not what GRRM says: not prophecy is bogus but has to be unexpected or "bite you in the ass".

Hey! No, you're far too kind 😭

I completely agree with you, and you raise some interesting and important questions, especially when considering how these ideas reflect back on our protagonists.

The tricky thing with interpreting prophecy is that the characters are operating on second-hand, third-hand, or even more distant accounts, all filtered through their cultural understandings of what a hero should be. Their beliefs are shaped by the information available to them, which is often incomplete or distorted. This means each character's idea of who is the subject of prophecy is largely subjective, influenced by their biases and specific cultural narratives and thus might never present the whole truth! So as readers, we should be very cautious about how we interpret the declarations presented by any character as absolute truth. We will probably never know until the final book is published, and even then it might be murky at best.

I saw GRRM’s comments a few days ago, and they really resonated with me because they align with how I’ve been feeling lately, particularly regarding Melisandre's role in all of this:

“[…] It is written in prophecy as well. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone.” (Davos III, ASoS)

It's often amusing in fandom to discuss how wrong Melisandre is, and she certainly is almost all the time. But lately, I've been wondering: what if we're wrong too? We focus so much on Melisandre misidentifying Azor Ahai, but what if she completely misunderstands her own role in all of this—and we're too blinded to notice it?

Because the issue isn't just that she's chosen the wrong person. The bigger problem is that she's fixated on providing what she believes are the necessary tools to defeat the Others. She wants to "wake dragons out of stone”, repeatedly asserting that "two kings" are needed to wake the dragon so they can serve Stannis Baratheon. This thinking leads to the burning of Shireen—because someone must die to forge the hero's weapon. Melisandre even sees herself as expendable in this grand scheme. But what if her entire understanding is flawed—not just about who the hero is, but about the very dragon she is trying to awaken?

I've been considering all this because "dragons" in the text don’t always refer to actual winged creatures—they're often symbolic descriptors for Targaryens in visions. For example, Moqorro's visions show dragons old and young, true and false; Baelor Breakspear appears as a dragon falling on top of Dunk; and a dragon egg hatching essentially symbolizes Aegon V. So if we're taking prophecy at face value, just as Mel does, we're left wondering where in seven hells she expects to find her "sleeping dragons".

But the thing is, she already has one: Jon Snow. In fact, her visions in Dance suggest that Jon is the one she is truly searching for. And I often think of these visions as moments where I go, "Oh, come on, Mel! It's not that guy; it's the other one!" Yet I've come to realize that even if she identifies Jon correctly, Mel would still face the dilemma of needing another sacrifice to "wake" Jon's dragon. However, she is likely to resurrect Jon before reconnecting with Stannis, which means that by the time she and Stannis consider burning Shireen, she may have already awakened the dragon - and thus fulfilled the prophecy.

If Jon is the awakened dragon, that adds a tragic irony to the whole situation with Mel and Shireen. Legend has it that the woman (Nissa Nissa) dies for the hero’s glory. But if Jon is the dragon, then does that make Melisandre Azor Ahai in this case? After all, we don't know much about the original prophecy so who knows how much it has been distorted over time?

But wouldn't that be such a twist? Mel isn’t a noble lady or royal; she's a former slave, a mere priestess—a tool, a guide, but not the hero. She never considered that she, a woman, could be R’hllor’s chosen. Yet she would perform an actual miracle in bringing a dragon back to life. And if, like me, you believe that Jon will be born from a funeral pyre (inverting Khal Drogo and Dany's dragon eggs), then the prophecy is turned entirely on its head.

This also raises the question: what about Shireen? What does she, an innocent little girl, die for? Why should she have to die for a dragon that is already living? Why should she have to die to exalt a false hero, when the true miracle worker is actually the "expendable" woman who stands before her? Then we have Melisandre carry the baggage of killing a child for something she had successfully completed before...It doesn't matter if she's able to perform some bastardized miracle and create a shadow dragon, because it would all be all for naught and a wasted effort. To me, this is more satisfying from a character development perspective because Melisandre is no longer a background character. She’s got POV chapters now, which means she has an arc that needs to reach its natural conclusion. It cannot begin and end in service of the men around her. She must reflect on her role and come to terms with her actions—both good (waking the dragon in Jon) and bad (sacrificing Shireen for something she had already accomplished and for a prophecy she had already fulfilled); and this could lead to some compelling writing. This might also answer your question about "how will the idea of AA/PTWP backfire on the believers?”. Because “incorrect” interpretations not only hinder progress, but the cost of human life is perhaps too high :/

Oops, so sorry for the long tangent.....