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jcmacri · 8 years ago

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The 50 Most Valuable Assets in the NBA

by Jonathan Macri

Now, perhaps more than ever, the task of coming up with a list of the most valuable assets in the NBA is nearly impossible. There are several reasons for this. For one, contracts are generally shorter, which makes a player’s value go down because he can leave sooner…except that the new CBA makes it really tempting for players to resign with their own team, so it’s not that big of a deal…only the player is resigning at a super-duper high salary, which makes him less valuable…but not really because the cap is so big and there is such a premium on star players that teams will pay whatever they have to to get them.

Making all of this more complicated is the fact that right now, there are, barring major injury, two teams with a realistic chance at winning a championship, not only this year, but next year as well. In the NBA, as with any professional sports league, the primary goal should always be winning a championship. Much ink has been spilt over the last several years about the team building ethos of the Charlottes, Utahs, and Grizzlies of the world, teams and markets who value being consistently competitive over going for the all or nothing approach perfected by the 76ers. Admit it: outside of Oakland, Cleveland, and maybe Minnesota, what current team has a better shot at winning the whole damn thing at some point over the next decade than Philly?

Therein lies the difficulty of these rankings. If you believe there is inherent value in simply being a good team that may, if everything breaks right, sniff a conference finals or two in the near future, than someone like, say, Marc Gasol should be incredibly high on this list; he is probably still the best all-around center in the NBA, and as long as he is on the Grizzlies, they will probably figure out a way to be competent enough to win a solid number of games and even a playoff series here or there.

If, on the other hand, you believe that playoff mediocrity is the worst fate for a team because it gets them no closer to the ultimate prize, than Marc Gasol would hold much less value, as one could argue Memphis would be better off trading him for young assets and draft picks and bottoming out.

For these rankings at least, I have attempted to split the baby. A player’s ability matters first and foremost, but team and contract situation are not ignored, and if a young player gives a team a chance at building something that could eventually lead to that organization climbing the mountaintop, that player gets preference over a better player who will in all likelihood never be able to lead his team to such heights. That being said, nothing is more valuable than a truly great player on a team built to win right now.

A few other notes: I tried to consider a player’s value to his own team as much as, if not a bit more than, his value to other teams (for example, the fact that Golden State isn’t giving up their core pieces for basically anything this year because they’re overwhelmingly favored to win it all matters significantly). On that note, it’s almost impossible to consider a player as an asset in a vacuum - merely looking at his current performance, potential, and contract situation, and taking team out of it - but in situations where team context is rather muddled, this was done to break ties. Salary matters, but less so than in years past, mostly due to the cap boom, but also because, again, top level talent is truly priceless today in this league above all others. Platoons work in baseball, but Anthony Morrow and Andre Roberson do not equate to Kawhi Leonard. Lastly, re: the new CBA, the assumption has been made that a player is far more likely to take the giant sum of money waiting for him if he stays put. This isn’t true across the board, but it is the rule, not the exception.

With all that said, a look at the honorable mentions before moving on to the top 50…

HONORABLE MENTION

Carmelo Anthony

It was hard to even squeeze him into the honorable mention category, not because of the negatives he brings (ball hogging, defensive indifference, and general inconsistent effort, mainly) or because of the bloated salary, but because it’s unclear that there’s a single team in basketball that he would make even 5% more likely to win a championship if you dropped him in the middle of their lineup tomorrow in exchange for precisely nothing.

Khris Middleton

Derrick Favors

Two players who have gotten lost in this NBA season due to injury; Middleton just came back, while Favors hasn’t been himself all year. They both seem like they have been around forever, but each is still 25 years old and possesses a skill set that any team could use. Middleton is signed for two more years at $27 million, followed by a player option, while Favors makes $12 million next season and then becomes a free agent. There would be a long list of takers if either became available.

Jahlil Okafor

Nerlens Noel

It’s good for them both that it looks like the Sixers are finally going to trade Okafor, because each has a chance to make positive impact in the league for a long time. Okafor is looking more and more to be a reasonable facsimile of Brook Lopez, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Noel, meanwhile, could wind up being a defensive player of the year someday in the right system. The problem with both players is that, due to their limitations, neither fits seamlessly into just any system.

Gary Harris

Rodney Hood

Two shooting guards in the third year of their rookie contracts who have been somewhat marginalized on their own teams, but nonetheless will become $15-$20 million players before too long given the lack of reasonable options at the position across the league.

Mike Conley

Bradley Beal

CJ McCollum

Harrison Barnes

Each of these four vets signed new deals in the offseason at over $20 million per year (and in Conley’s case, over $30 million), which doesn’t make any of them a bargain, but it’s telling that at least so far, none of their teams are having buyer’s remorse, which is far more than a lot of teams can say about their offseason moves. Conley is the best of the bunch, but his age and mammoth contract relegate him below the other three in this group.

Justise Winslow

A year ago, he was number 43 on this list. Since that time, his passing improved and he became comfortable shooting more, but his shot still seems like it needs an overhaul, and then finally he went down to season ending shoulder surgery at the end of 2016. At this point, he seems like he’ll end up closer to Tony Allen than Kawhi Leonard, but if there is any organization who can figure out how to work out the kinks in the next few years, it is the Heat.

George Hill

About to get very expensive, but he is the league’s most underrated point guard and Utah is not going to let him get away.

Paul Milsap

Here’s what I wrote about Al Horford a year ago, last season’s final omission before the top 50:

$145 million over the next 5 years. That’s what Al Horford’s next contract with the Atlanta Hawks (or whoever might trade for him this deadline) could be worth, and he’ll be on the wrong side of 30 when he signs that deal…while he’s still one of the 20 to 30 best players in the league, the fact that the Hawks are not legitimate championship contenders this year, when added to the above, makes him the final cut from the top 50.

Replace Al’s name with Paul’s and $145 million with $150 million +, and we’re all set.

THE TOP 50

IT’S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL

50. (tie) D’Angelo Russell & Emmanuel Mudiay

More than a season and a half into each of their careers, it isn’t yet clear what either of these guys is. League average point guards? That’s probably the most likely outcome for each player (which wouldn’t be that bad, considering the current definition of league average – guys like Jrue Holiday and Jeff Teague – will be highly sought after come summertime). There’s still a chance one or both elevates their game to something higher than that; just think about Kyle Lowry, Goran Dragic, and Isaiah Thomas, each of whom has been or is currently an All-NBA level player. All three also needed to change teams to reach their full potential, and there already exists the notion that Denver should consider including Mudiay in a package for a more established player. They are too smart for that though, and will give him a chance to hone a still raw skill set. Russell, on the other hand, seems closer to being what he’s going to be: a steady but unspectacular pro who will benefit greatly from better talent around him. The reason they squeeze onto the list ahead of players that at first glance one would think should be below is because of just how tough it is to land a star, and the face that either of these guards could potentially reach that level would have teams jumping to take the risk of finding out.

49. Jaylen Brown

He’s still kind of lump of clay, figuring out the pro game as a 20-year-old who looked raw even against college players. He was starting for three weeks before suffering a hip injury and the results were mixed. While Boston won nine of the ten games that Brown started, their scoring margin with him on the court in those games was negative (granted, most were close games). His elite athleticism and ability to get to the rim, along with having the prototypical body for an NBA wing, are qualities that more than justify his placement here, although it’s too early to say what his eventual ceiling is going to be.

48. Brandon Ingram

Like Brown, Ingram is still so raw, but won’t turn 21 for a year and a half and has done nothing to suggest he wasn’t deserving of the second overall selection in the Draft this June. One would think that he is the most untouchable young asset that the Lakers have, although if a star came on the market, it would be difficult to see LA passing up the opportunity, even if it meant parting ways with the 6’9” swingman.

47. Jamaal Murray

Is he a straight two guard, or can he handle the ball well enough to run Denver’s offense from time to time? The answer to that question will go a long way in determining his future value, but regardless of the answer, it’s becoming increasingly clear that he is the steal of the 2016 Draft. He’s a pure shooter at the NBA’s scarcest position, and is already showing tantalizing ability as a rookie. He is absolutely part of the Denver core.

46. Aaron Gordon

45. Zach LaVine

They were grouped together on last year’s version of this list, not because of their legendary dunk contest performance, but because of how they each seemed like they were just starting to figure out how to use their freakish athleticism in the context of NBA games. Since that time, LaVine has mostly soared, averaging 19 a game this season while hitting 39% of his threes (to be fair, his defense was still a train wreck). Just when it looked like the Wolves might make a late playoff push (and they still might), LaVine went down with a left ACL tear at the beginning of this month. Alternatively, Gordon’s season has been a disaster from the start. He has been playing out of position at small forward, and even now that Orlando has traded away Serge Ibaka, there is still no guarantee they play Gordon full-time at the 4. Somewhere in there, an intriguing player does still exist, though it seems like it’s going to take a semi-competent franchise to unlock his potential.

(as an aside, The Magic should send regular gifts on all holidays to both the Kings and Knicks, who each make Orlando’s regular-old “we don’t know anything about team building” dysfunction look pale in comparison to the “complete and total tire fire” dysfunction that New York and Sacramento specialize in.)

DIRT-CHEAP 3 AND D CELTIC WINGS

44. Avery Bradley

43. Jae Crowder

Yup, they get their own category.

First, Bradley…quick: name every guard/wing player in the league averaging at least 17 points, 7 rebounds, and shooting 40% from three? If you count Kevin Durant as a wing, the answer is two, with AB being the other. Yes, it’s an arbitrary stat, but it underscores how valuable he is, and that’s not even mentioning his elite level defense.

As for Crowder, he was originally in the honorable mention section of this list, but then I started to write about how guys who do what he does are getting paid two and three times as much money as him even though they’re 75% as effective, and I quickly recalibrated. Like Bradley, Crowder is making over two 3’s a game this year and shooting them over 40% while also locking up opposing wings. The reason he edges Bradley is the money; AB is only making $8 million per, but will become a free agent in 2018. Crowder on the other hand will make as much money over the next three seasons as Chandler Parsons makes this year. He takes home the award once again for the best contract in basketball.

NOT QUITE ALL-STAR POINT GUARDS

42. Goran Dragic

41. Eric Bledsoe

Both were thought to be on the block earlier this season, and then they really stepped up their level of play since the new year. Each player is signed at reasonable money for at least two more seasons after this one (Dragic has a player option for 2019-20), and are likely to remain nearly as effective through the life of their contract. There’s little doubt that there would be several takers offering real assets if either team decided to make them available.

VETERAN BIGS

40. Hassan Whiteside

39. DeAndre Jordan

38. LaMarcus Aldridge

37. Al Horford

36. Marc Gasol

At the league’s most loaded position, each of these centers (to hell with what Al and LMA claim they are) bring their own positives and negatives to the table:

Gasol is the best of the lot right now and is earning under $25 million in each of the next two seasons before his player option comes up, but he’s 32 and his team is locked into mid-tier playoff mediocrity for the foreseeable future. Of all of the big men here though, he is the only one who could probably elevate half a dozen teams in the league from fringe contenders to legitimate threats to win it all.

Boston is already thinking they will have a championship run in them at some point during the length of Horford’s deal, but like Gasol, his play is likely to decline and he only gets pricier as he ages.

The Spurs can never be counted out, and LaMarcus Aldridge has had a ho-hum, near-All-Star season in helping lead San Antonio to the league’s second best record, but like Gasol and Horford, he is over 30 and can opt out of his current deal after next season.

DeAndre Jordan is the only key Clipper locked up after this year, and he finally made an All-Star team, but his value is severely dampened without Chris Paul throwing him lobs, He can also opt out after next season.

Finally, Whiteside has thus far justified Miami’s bet on him and he’s the youngest of this bunch, but he doesn’t bring the complete package the other players do and there’s no telling how well he’d function outside of Miami, who has figured out how to use Hassan to the best of his abilities.

35. DeMarcus Cousins

This seems about right for Boogie, just below a group of young assets that have a chance to be franchise cornerstones and established stars who don’t come with the baggage of the NBA’s most mercurial All-Star.

We all know what he is. One of the two or three best all-around bigs in the league when engaged, and he’s still just 26 years old. There’s nothing he can’t do on a basketball court, but there’s no locker room he can’t destroy off of it, according to the sum total of the evidence collected, the most damning of which might be that former teammates feel like it’s just too damn tiring to have to constantly walk on eggshells in his presence.

He’s as good a candidate as any to round out the top 35.

YOUNG BUILDING BLOCKS

35. Jabari Parker

Jabari was in the top 20 before the second tear of his left ACL, which feels criminal considering he had finally come alive as the offensive force he was predicted to be coming out of college. There’s no telling how his game will adjust once he comes back, but he was never exactly a high flier to begin with, and his offensive game is fairly crafty. Even before the injury, he was never going to be the best player on a contending team, but as long as he plays alongside his front court mate in Milwaukee, he doesn’t need to be. He lands here, as there’s still a good chance he averages an efficient 25 a night for the next six to eight years after he returns.

33. Miles Turner

He’s been a slightly worse version of Kristaps Porzingis, so he probably shouldn’t be all the way down here, but he doesn’t appear to have quite the same level of superstar potential (you have to guard his long ball, but it’s nowhere near the threat of KP’s), although that could be more perception than reality because of where he plays and the fact that his team doesn’t feature him quite as much.

32. Devin Booker

He’s averaging over 20 a game and he’s not yet old enough to drink. He plays a premium position, can move with the ball enough to keep defenses honest, and after a disastrous early season shooting slump, has his three-point shooting up to 36%. His defense is always going to be an issue, but he looks to be the most indispensable part of the Phoenix rebuild.

GOOD, OLD-FASHIONED ALL-STARS

31. Gordon Hayward

Even though Utah can offer him far more than any other team, there is some thinking that he is the likeliest free agent to change teams this summer. He’s still only 26 years old, but there already seems to be league-wide acknowledgement that he is not going to be worth his next contract. Despite all of the above, Utah will roll the dice that he stays, and will pay him whatever it can to make sure that happens.

30. Kyle Lowry

It seems rude to put the best guard in the Eastern Conference this season so low. Unfortunately, he is 30 years old – not a great age for point guards, especially ones who have had conditioning issues in the past. His next contract will start at a number right around his age, and won’t be pretty on the back end. Toronto’s offseason will be fascinating to watch, especially now that the Ibaka trade has been made and he is also due for a new contract come July.

29. Andre Drummond

28. DeMar DeRozan

27. Damian Lillard

Each of the next half-dozen NBA seasons will likely feature an All-Star appearance from at least one of these players (this year, it’s DeRozan). They are locked up at dollar amounts that are high but fair in the current economic landscape. None of them play for a team that is likely to end up in a Finals any time soon (although Toronto will certainly try), but none of their franchises would even consider a rebuild at the present moment. Most significantly, there are legitimate questions about each player’s game even as they enter or become entrenched in their prime: defense for Lillard, shooting for Derozan, free throw shooting (and general offensive prowess) for Drummond. But in a league where Evan Founier can sign an $80+ million contract and have it be considered a bargain, even with their faults, these three are looked at as assets that almost every other team in the league would kill to have.

26. Kemba Walker

25. Isaiah Thomas

Isaiah Thomas and Kemba Walker are both All-Star point guards in the prime of their careers. If the season ended today, Isaiah would probably slot next to Steph Curry on the All-NBA 2nd team, while Kemba would have a compelling case for 3rd. Thomas is as good a crunch time scorer as there is in the league, while Walker might be its hardest worker and greatest overachiever, willing his way to becoming a 40% three point shooter after he entered the league barely over 30%. They are both ridiculously underpaid.

Despite the similarities, they are in drastically different situations. Kemba Walker is not going anywhere, but it’s because the Hornets are so hard pressed to find free agents willing to go there (they just traded for four years’ worth of a Plumlee brother). That they have Walker’s services for the next two seasons after this one at the price of an above-average backup is the best thing the organization has going for it.

Thomas’ is a different story. He is getting paid less than some guys who are not good enough to be in the rotations of bad teams, but that contract is up after next season and his team is about to get a guaranteed top 4 pick in the most point-guard rich draft maybe ever. It will be fascinating to see whether Danny Ainge “backs up the Brinks truck,” as Thomas has politely requested, to keep a brilliant offensive player whose defense may never be good enough to allow his team to win it all. The other scenario would have him trading a soon-to-be 28-year-old MVP candidate on a pseudo-contender, which is something not even Danny would likely be able to stomach.

24. Blake Griffin

23. Chris Paul

How does one even begin to assess the trade value of the Clippers duo? Let’s start with Paul. He’s still the best point guard in the league, at least in the classical sense of the position. His value to a team, at both ends of the floor, has only been reinforced by his absence this season. When the team was healthy and rolling early on, there were at least discussions about whether they could pose a threat to the Warriors in a seven game series. Since he went out, they are a tire fire that can’t stop anyone.

And yet…he is over thirty with a lot of tread on the tires and a not-insignificant injury history. As a pending free agent, he would be impossible to move this season, not that the Clippers would ever entertain a trade. If, though, an alternate universe existed in which they did, it would be hard to find a team willing to give up the assets it would take to get him. Damn near every established playoff team is already set at point guard, and Paul obviously has no interest in resigning anywhere that isn’t a contender. And then there’s the small matter of his next contract, which could be the worst in the league by the time it ends.

As for Blake, much has been written about how well his game will age once his athleticism goes (and the thinking seems to be that he will still be very, very good) but this will be the third year in a row he plays under 70 regular season games due to injury. The Clippers will happily pay him the max, but like Paul, the better question is where his value lies if he ever did hit the trade market. He’s not a get-to-the-rim, three-point bombing guard, he’s not a rangy, switchy 3 and D wing, and he’s not center who drains bombs and protects the rim (he does neither). In other words, he doesn’t give you one of those gotta-have-it skills that teams crave…he’s just really, really good. Plenty of teams would move pieces and use up cap space to take the risk of finding out just how he is going to age, but for all the above reasons, he’s no longer considered the top-10 asset that he was for years, even as he enters what should be his basketball prime.

22. Rudy Gobert

He might be the best defender in basketball outside of Leonard and Green, and for Utah, that skill set is the foundation of everything they do on that end of the floor. On offense, he is functional enough to be an asset. Most importantly, any team in the league would be able to seamlessly fit him into their framework (assuming you don’t own one of the freak-of-nature centers lower on this list). He is locked up for the next four years after this one at a rate only slightly higher than some backup centers, and he won’t turn 30 until after that deal is up. He may never make an All-Star team, but his value is undeniable.

21. Kevin Love

Would the Cavs do the Wiggins deal over again? Certainly, given last year’s outcome. But what if they had the opportunity to rescind the trade today and get Wiggins back? Even with Love out for 6 weeks, it’s still unclear if they would, being in a position to once again win it all and Love giving them the better chance to make that happen. So why is Wiggins higher on the list that Love (spoiler alert: he’s not that much higher)? The Cavs would at least have to give the deal some thought, and there’s a chance that even with the championship, they end up regretting the original deal. The Wolves, on the other hand, would hang up the phone, and you’d be hard pressed to find another team in the league that would give up a shot at Wiggins’ potential for the surer thing in Love.

WE’RE GOING TO LET THIS ONE PLAY OUT

20. Andrew Wiggins

19. Ben Simmons

In all likelihood, within a few years, one of these two will probably end up as a top five asset. There’s also a non-zero chance that one of them doesn’t make this list at all. Even though Wiggins has all the tools to be the next Kawhi Leonard, enough questions have been raised about his game for some to wonder whether he is the best long-term compliment for Towns. Simmons, on the other hand, has yet to play an NBA game, but even if he never develops a jump shot, his playmaking and physical tools alone are enough to justify his place here.

WE NEED BOTH BROOKLYN PICKS…AND THEN SOME

18. John Wall

17. Jimmy Butler

16. Paul George

Three ultra-talented players. Each has an argument for filling out the bottom of anyone’s top-10 list of the best players in the league. All three might even make the cut. Each plays for a team which is firmly planted somewhere in the delicious, creamy middle of the Eastern Conference. All three of those teams have had their organizational directions questioned at some point since the summer, and none of them appears to have a clear path towards contention any time soon (although the Wiz are sure making it interesting). Before the new CBA, each would have had as good a shot as the other two to come in second (after Boogie) on the list of superstars most likely to be traded in the next calendar year, but now things are more complicated. Even though neither the Wizards, Pacers or Bulls seem able to rise to contender-level status in the near future, these three would be nuts to leave the money on the table that is sure to await them from their current team when their present deals run out. They are also all either 26 or 27 years old, meaning there is more than enough left in each of their primes for their teams to think they are one fortuitous event away from a magical Finals run.

EFFECTIVELY UNTOUCHABLE

***With their teams poised to meet once again in the Finals (and easily the favorites to make it a four-peat the year after), these three aren’t going anywhere.

15. Draymond Green

14. Klay Thompson

13. Kyrie Irving

Let’s start with Green…so what if he's just the best complimentary player in the league? He’s the best complimentary player on the best team in the league that is poised to be great for several more seasons after this one. They are not moving him, but as a theoretical trade candidate, he is as interesting as any player in the league. His on-court antics must be balanced with his unselfishness, not to mention his undeniable presence in the locker room. His contract is the second-best long term deal in the entire league for a player making over $10 million annually (Kawhi takes the cake there). No, he probably wouldn’t be very successful as a team’s alpha dog, but the league actually has a surprisingly large amount of alpha dogs and not nearly enough guys who do everything else really, really well. There is arguably no team in the league that he wouldn’t make considerably better, and no team where he wouldn’t be able to fit in seamlessly. He deserves to be here.

As for Klay and Kyrie, two guards with identical contracts, the question is which player would have more value to other teams in the league. On one hand, Klay Thompson doesn’t seem to be the type of player that one could build a team around, primarily because he’s a guard who doesn’t move particularly well with the ball. Outside of a historically great offense featuring one - and now two – all-time greats, it is unclear how good he would make a team by himself, although last year’s on/off numbers for his backcourt partner would seem to indicate that Klay’s value without an elite ball-handler is limited. There are also varying opinions on his defense.

Kyrie’s time with the Cavs before LeBron arrived and more recently when he hasn’t shared the court with the king has shown exactly what an Irving-led team would be: pretty average. He is an isolation player, and even though he is a great one, maybe the best at his position, he doesn’t seem like the guy another team would mortgage everything for if LBJ retired tomorrow and the Cavs decided to rebuild. Still, he edges out Klay here because there’s still a chance that at 24, he hasn’t yet reached his potential.

THE DIRTY DOZEN

***The following twelve players can be put in any order, because unlike every other player on this list, there is zero possibility of any of them going anywhere.

12. Russell Westbrook

Really? There are 11 better assets players in the NBA than a 28-year-old averaging a triple double who is all but guaranteed to finish top-3 in the MVP voting this year? Hold that thought.

11. Nikola Jokic

10. Kristaps Porzingis

9. Joel Embiid

8. Anthony Davis

7. Karl Anthony Towns

6. Giannis Antetokounmpo

This is where it gets tricky.

Russell Westbrook is very likely to sign a mammoth contract extension this summer that will keep him in OKC into his early 30’s (the new CBA made an exception so that he will be able to sign a 5 year, $219 million deal). Given that he’s unlikely to go anywhere, isn’t he more valuable than at least a few of the young, unproven players listed here?

Not necessarily. Let’s start with age: Russell is 28 years old, while the oldest player out of these six is Anthony Davis at 23, meaning none have hit their primes yet. Of greater importance is how Westbrook plays. He relies so much on his athleticism that it’s a bit scary to think of how his game will adjust when his unholy natural abilities start to wane.

The better question is whether any of these teams would give up their young stud for Russ. Even if they knew they would have him for the long haul, the answer is simple: not a chance. On the other hand, OKC would make any of those deals in a heartbeat. They’re not competing for a championship this year, and that’s unlikely to change any time soon. Trading away an MVP candidate having a historically great season would be impossible to swallow, but hitting the reset button with someone between five and seven years younger would be in the best long-term interests of the franchise.

The next question is how to order these six monsters. There’s a chance that any of them could wind up having the best NBA career, but if every NBA team outside of Golden State, Cleveland, San Antonio and Houston was given the chance to trade their best player for any one of the six, one of two would likely be at the top of everyone’s list: Towns and the Greek Freak.

Before a comparison between the two, a look at the other candidates…

This spot for Jokic may seem high, especially since he was coming off the bench not long ago, but it won’t be long before the entire basketball universe knows what Denver finally figured out and what NBA nerds have known since last year: this guy is unreal. A team can not only run an offense through him, but he’s already showing the potential to become a Marc Gasol-level playmaker and the most unstoppable low post scoring machine in the league. 11 is probably too low for him.

As a Knicks fan, it’s painful to put the unicorn all the way down here at number 10, but there’s no telling the sustained damage that playing for the league’s most dysfunctional franchise will have on his long-term potential. He has Curry’s range, moves well with the ball, and routinely makes highlight reel defensive plays in the post, but it doesn’t appear he’ll ever have the body to dominate down low and it’s unclear how he’ll fair defending the perimeter in the long run.

Embiid is a tempting choice to not only put at the top of this group but to put at the very top of this list, but the foot issues did not go away just because he has taken the NBA by storm. That alone keeps him down here.

Anthony Davis has reasserted himself this year as the best big man in basketball. There is nothing he can’t do on a court, but at this level, it’s about splitting hairs, and while Davis has reached his peak, Towns and Giannis are just approaching that level. He can also opt out of his max contract in three years, and if New Orleans continues to be mired in sub-mediocrity, there’s at least a chance he will leave money on the table to go elsewhere.

That leaves Towns and Giannis. Both will be with their teams for the long-term. They are 21 and 22 years old, respectively. Giannis is an All-NBA level player this year, and Towns will be there next season. Each has a supporting cast that will give them a real chance to compete for big things in the coming years. Ultimately, Giannis edges out Towns for the simple reason that NBA wings are as premium a position as there is in sports outside of NFL quarterbacks and MLB aces. Otto Porter and Kentavious Caldwell-Freaking-Pope are about to make twenty million American dollars per season, a year after the Nets were lauded for attempting to sign Allen Crabbe to a four year, seventy two-million-dollar deal. Meanwhile, teams can’t give away centers. Obviously, a game-changer like Towns is a different story, but the fact remains: wings are the thing, and Antetokounmpo is the ultimate NBA Swiss-Army knife. If we knew for sure that his jump shot was going to develop as it seems like it’s going to, he’d be an easy number one here.

5. James Harden

This seems high. A year ago at this time, Harden was the captain of a sinking ship, and his work ethic, off-court choices, and on-court disdain for defense were all being highlighted by people who reveled in the downfall of Darryl Morey’s grand experiment. Even now, Morey himself would agree that the team is a long shot at best to contend this year, and without one more semi-major move, they will likely remain just outside the circle of teams who have enough to go all the way.

But that move is more likely to be made with Morey at the helm (who still possesses as deft a touch when it comes roster construction as anyone outside of his own state, despite the failed Dwight experiment) and that is exactly why Harden finds himself so high on this list. Well, that and his also being allowed to sign a mega max deal as an exception in the new CBA.

There are less than ten players in the league at any given time who can be the driving force behind a championship team, and Harden is one of those guys right now - and will be for a few years. Unlike Westbrook, he doesn’t rely on his athleticism to be successful, and his jump shot is far superior. He also has the best supporting cast of anyone other than the four players above him on this list, and because his team is only a piece away (and even that might be underestimating their chances), he’s as valuable as ever.

Now, if we’re picking nits: Would the Rockets consider dealing him for one of the younger guys just below him on this list? Even though they are all younger (and some of them come considerably cheaper), it’s highly unlikely for the simple reason that the Rockets have figured out how to build the perfect roster around their superstar, and have the perfect coach to run the show. A theoretical Harden for KAT or Greek Freak trade would leave the Rockets starting over, and while the long-term potential could be even greater, the uncertainty would be too great to take a chance.

4. Steph Curry

One look at the current perception of Steph Curry by the larger basketball community will tell you everything you need to know about what is wrong with the NBA. After being named a starter in the All-Star Game over Russell Westbrook, reactions ranged from tacit acceptance to outright scorn.

Think about that for a second. Steph Curry gave his unconscionable-for-a-star-in-2016 approval to the Warriors to go after Kevin Durant, knowing full well what would happen: lower stats, no chance at a third MVP, and a lower profile around the league among media, players and coaches (Erik Spolestra: “How is Westbrook not starting the All-Star Game?”). Yet he didn’t think twice because he knew it was best for the team. He knew they could get Durant because KD had had enough of attempting to share the ball with the guy who has now reached the levels of adulation seen only by Curry in the previous two seasons, but Westbrook is putting up his stats on a team paced to win 46 games; Curry’s team is making another run at 70.

Is there any question as to whether Curry could sign with a mediocre team this summer and average 35, 10, and 6 while once again setting the league record for threes made in a season? That would be derided as a ridiculous, me-first type of move, of course. Russell Westbrook, on the other hand, never gets criticized for failing to adjust his game to make sure Durant never thought twice about leaving. Instead, he gets heaped with praise, and will finish somewhere between five and ten spots ahead of Curry in the final MVP balloting. People will look back years from now and assume Curry dropped off, when in fact nothing could be further from the truth.

3. Kevin Durant

2. LeBron James

1. Kawhi Leonard

These are the only three players in basketball that, if you put them on just about any other roster, they would lead their team to 50 wins. (the Nets are the only possible exception, although if you gave them Pop as a coach I’m not so sure)

The task of distinguishing between the 3 is quite a bit more difficult, so let’s throw out some scenarios.

First up: the Spurs, Cavs, and Warriors each get the chance to swap their player for one of the other two. Who blinks? The Cavs seem to enjoy the city of Cleveland and would rather not see it burnt to the ground by an angry mob, so they would pass…although if they could magically alter the brains of everyone in the city to embrace whatever move the franchise made (wouldn’t it be nice if the Browns had that ability?) would they make a switch? The thinking goes that LeBron is still capable of reaching heights that the other two simply can’t match, and since he can save his energy for the Finals, the Cavs probably wouldn’t want to diminish their chance of winning another ring, so they’d pass. The Spurs aren’t nearly as a good a bet to bring home a ring, but Leonard is as inextricably intertwined with the fabric and mindset of the organization at this point as Duncan ever was. Even from a purely basketball standpoint, Kawhi’s age alone would preclude any discussion, as would his salary, which is the best bargain in basketball.

That leaves the Warriors and Durant. There is no indication that he plans to go anywhere at this point, but the possibility can’t be completely dismissed. The team is rolling and looks to be in the midst of a dynastic run, but they will have to make some difficult decisions in the offseason that may leave them dangerously top-heavy heading into next year. The fact that Durant’s salary next season will almost double Leonard’s therefor cannot be ignored. The better question is whether the Warriors would be better off with Kawhi right now. The defense he would provide against James Harden, LeBron James, and any other potential threats that might emerge is enough by itself to at least ask the question. In addition, Durant’s greatest strength is still his one on one scoring brilliance - something that some people would argue will be a detriment to the Warriors in tight spots down the line. This is all to say that Golden State’s title chances probably would at least stay the same this year and beyond, if not increase, if a swap was made.

So does Kawhi end up at the top? It seems ridiculous to think so, but when you add everything up, it actually makes sense. He is young. He has not significant injury history. He shows no desire to go anywhere. He would fit in more seamlessly into any team than any player in basketball. And maybe, just maybe, he is every bit as good as the other two guys right now and we’re all kidding ourselves not to realize it. #1 it is.

#nba #nba trade rumors

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