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precultindia · 4 years ago

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HOW DOES THE CORONAVIRUS OUTPUT END? WE SHOW YOU HOW TO PLAY SIMILAR EPIDEMICS.

As stock markets crash, travel stops, and new Coronavirus infections are diagnosed in the United States, one question everyone is asking is how the epidemic will end.

No one knows for sure, but virologists say there are signs of similar epidemics. Here are three scenarios:

Coronavirus Is Controlled By Health Officials Through Strict Public Health Measures

When severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) first appeared in Asia in 2002, it was quite scary, with a mortality rate of around 10% and without the effectiveness of medications. (The current coronavirus, by comparison, has an estimated mortality rate of less than 1 to 3.4%.) However, within a few months, SARS was controlled and eradicated largely thanks to international collaboration and strict controls. . . Outdated public health measures, such as isolation, quarantine, and contact tracing.

It would be an ideal result. However, the difference is that SARS had more severe symptoms than the current coronavirus, so people went to the hospital shortly after infection.

Coronavirus cases will be more difficult to detect and isolate, said Stuart Weston, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Maryland. Weston is one of a small group of researchers who have received and is studying samples of coronaviruses. Weston and other experts warn that the epidemic is more widespread than that pursued in the United States and other countries because many people with mild symptoms do not know they are infected.

Coronavirus Affects The Least Developed Countries And Worsens Before Improving

One of the worst lessons of the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa is how an epidemic can develop when it affects countries with poor health infrastructure. For this reason, the World Health Organization and other countries in sub-Saharan Africa have prepared for coronavirus, although only a few cases have been reported so far.

Compared to the coronavirus, Ebola was less contagious and was transmitted primarily through body fluids. Coronavirus can be transmitted by coughing and sneezing droplets of breath that persist on surfaces. However, Ebola has infected more than 28,000 people and left more than 11,000 dead. Ebola is more deadly, and shortages of personnel and supplies, poverty, delays by heads of state, and government mistrust are making the epidemic worse.

WHO heads of state and government have called on countries to prepare. On Friday, the organization raised its coronavirus rating to the highest level. "This is a reality check for all governments on the planet: wake up. Prepare. This virus can be on the move and you must be prepared," said Michael Ryan, WHO Director of Health Emergencies. "Waiting to be complacent, being accidentally caught at this point is not a good excuse."

The New Coronavirus Spreads So Much That It Becomes A Reality.

This is essentially what happened with the 2009 H1N1 epidemic, also known as the swine flu. It spread rapidly and eventually reached around 11-21% of the world population. The WHO declared it a pandemic and fear have spread.

H1N1 flu is milder than originally feared and has caused little more than a runny nose and cough in most people. And H1N1 has become so common that it is simply considered part of the seasonal flu that occurs and occurs every year around the world.

Early mortality estimates for H1N1 were much higher than the 0.01 to 0.03 percent that occurred. However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that H1N1 killed 12,469 people, infected 60.8 million cases, and caused 274,304 hospitalizations in the United States between 2009 and 2010. The actual number is difficult to determine as many die The causes of influenza are not tested for H1N1 flu or any other strain of flu. Seasonal flu has killed at least 18,000 people in the United States this season, according to the CDC.

H1N1 is a particularly good parallel, epidemiologists say, because it has a lower death rate than SARS or MERS, but it is more deadly because of its infectivity and spread.

Not alarming, but another possible parallel could be the 1918 Spanish flu, which had a 2.5% death rate and was incredibly close to coronavirus estimates.

Florian Krammer, an influenza virologist, discovered that the world was completely different in 1918.

"We did not have the tools to diagnose diseases or antibiotics to fight secondary infections. Hospitals were places where you died and you did not receive treatment. And in 1918, the world was at war. And many infected people were soldiers in the trenches," said Krammer from the Icahn School of Medicine on Mount Sinai. "Hopefully not."

The number of people who die from a coronavirus ultimately depends on its spread, our preparedness, and the actual death rate of the virus.

Some more important things affect the final phase of the coronavirus

If the coronavirus becomes ubiquitous like H1N1, developing a vaccine is crucial. After the 2009 epidemic, experts developed an H1N1 flu vaccine that was included in the flu vaccines that people received in the following years. This has helped protect particularly vulnerable groups of the population during subsequent waves of infection.

Antiviral drugs may help shortly, and laboratories around the world are testing their effectiveness against coronavirus.

No one knows if the coronavirus will be affected by seasons like the flu, although President Trump says it could "disappear" with warmer temperatures in April.

"We are still learning a lot about the virus," said WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove. "At the moment, there is no reason to believe that this virus works differently in different climates. We have to see what will happen later."

Coronaviruses are zoonotic, which means they spread from animals to humans. Experts believe that SARS spreads from bats to civets and humans. Middle East Fatal Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2012 was likely transmitted from bats to camels to humans. With the coronavirus, no one knows which animals have caused the current epidemic. And it's a puzzle that scientists must solve to prevent it from happening again in the future.

A prime suspect is an endangered creature named Pangolin, which resembles a cross between an anteater and an armadillo, and whose scales are traded illegally.

"With SARS, once they found the responsible animals in China, they were able to begin removing them from live markets," said Vineet Menachery, a virologist at the University of Texas Medical Department. "It's like a broken water pipe. You have to find the source to turn it off."

*Precult is the covidcare Prevention. You should visit these sites*

#covid19 precult #covid-19 kit #corona #coronavirus

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disregardcanon · 5 years ago

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while i’m thinking about it, here’s some Headcanons TM about a gilmore girls in modern westeros au. the noble houses don’t actually rule anymore, but they still have the names and the money and the lands.

okay so they are all riverlands houses and in the riverlands because c’mon, of course new england is in the riverlands

the paternal line of the gilmores are the tullys so richard, lorelei primary and rory are all, technically tullys. it was a little difficult to get that legitimization for rory after lorelei and christopher didn’t wed, but they made due. they wouldn’t have their granddaughter be born a BASTARD. thus, rory tully is born. “family. duty. honor” comes naturally to richard gilmore, but it always felt like a noose around lorelei’s neck, which is one of the reasons that she ran away. she got a job at the inn of the kneeling man a few days ride (or about an hour car ride) from riverrun and started her own life just like in the show.

emily gilmore was born a whent 1. because that keeps up the book continuity in some cool ways and 2. because minisa whent (catelyn tully’s mom) had red hair and that works for emily swimmingly. for a historical note, the ousted whents were able to retake harrenhal after the murder of petyr baelish. most historical sources agree that it was sansa stark, fleeing his hold to become lady of winterfell, but some more fanciful accounts hold that it was actually the lady stoneheart. this legend that says that the eradication of house frey was actually carried out by a resurrected catelyn tully stark as retribution for the red wedding.

lorelei gilmore, richard’s mother, was born a mallister of seaguard. they’re historically powerful, prejudiced against the ironborn, and proud. their motto is “above the rest”. i think that fits XD they also reigned as petty kings during the Thousand Kings Time, and were kings of the trident for a brief period before being put down by the storm kings.

christopher hayden is a bracken of stone hedge. they’re one of the most powerful houses sworn to house tully and also, geographically speaking, one of the closest as well. i particularly like this placement because their sigil is a stallion, which is reminiscent of chris’s motorcycle and he probably calls his “bracken-mobile” in this au.

paris gellar is a blackwood of raventree hall because a friend of mine has a really cool idea where if you do westeros aus jewish characters worship the old gods and i like that so we’re going with it. also house blackwood is my favorite bannerman house and paris is one of my faves, so it works. another reason that i like this is because houses bracken and blackwood have one of the fiercest rivalries in the seven kingdoms, so the idea of part of paris’s initial hatred of rory being because she’s part bracken is just. delightful to me.

logan huntzberger is a mooton of maidenpool. the mootons were kings during the time when westeros had like, a thousand petty kingships, but while they were never kings again after and they never had lord paramontship of the riverlands, they were always one of the most powerful houses and THE most wealthy house in the region. they had control of the region’s biggest city and biggest port, and as the area modernized, a hefty slice of the riverlands tourist industry with the draws of the biggest city, the mooton journalism industry, and jonquil’s pool, which is rumored to the be the place where legendary florian first set eyes on his lady love, jonquil.

i don’t care enough about the other Richy Rich characters from chilton who aren’t paris. they are, certainly, members of other important houses in the riverlands. sort them if you’d like. if you care enough i applaud you.

characters who are not The Richy Richest are just. their normal selves, mainly. christian characters become characters who follow the seven, jewish characters become people who follow the old gods. they have the same last names and backstories basically. the kims are essosi but follow the faith of the seven. “gypsy” (god i really hate that name) is also essosi. miss patty was born in dorne and spent a long time traveling for showbusiness. babbette was born in lannisport and also spent some time traveling before finding stars hallow and setting down. dean and his family lived in barrowtown before moving there. zach and his family are ironborn but they moved to the riverlands because his dad ran off on them when his mom was ten and she’s like, yeah fuck this i’m not putting up with being a single woman in the iron islands. mrs. kim has quite a freak out when she finds out that her daughter’s boyfriend is a “pirate”.

most of the other characters were born and bred in the riverlands, but aren’t connected to any noble houses. they’re just normal smallfolk doing their normal smallfolk thing, which. oh lordy. the gilmores can’t stand that lorelei’s just over there, working at the inn of the kneeling man and fraternizing with this crowd of SMALLFOLK. dating diner owners. giving dornishwomen and essosi more access to rory than her own grandparents. the shame.

places

the inn of the kneeling man: according to legend, this inn was built where king torrhen stark bent the knee to aegon I. it’s VERY popular with the tourists just by virtue of being, you know, historic. the inn also boasts having been important during robert’s rebellion (not true), the war of five kings (not true, unless you count the times that brienne of tarth, jaime lannister, and arya stark were there, without people, like, knowing) and during daenerys’s conquest (actually true, she DID insist that rebels bend the knee there, for the brief period before she took back the iron throne). mainly it’s just a nice place with nice scenery, and lorelei and the locals love it to death.

chilton: built in hartford, the city that sprang up right beside riverrun, so grandma and grandpa tully start to insist on the very same dinner routine as in the show.

yale: the one of th two most prestigious universities in the riverlands, built near high heart. this allows for easy travel to both stars hallow directly by the inn of the kneeling man, and riverrun. Yale is one of the most prestigious universities in all of westeros along with harvard in stoney sept, the citadel in oldtown, and some others i haven’t made up yet.

Boston Things TM: like harvard and christopher are in stoney sept.

new york city: we’re putting new york and things that occur in new york in lannisport because lannisport is one of the biggest cities in westeros, it’s a much more happening place than most of the others, it’s not TOO far from the riverlands, and uh. gulltown sure doesn’t have an aesthetic that would fit with new york. so. we’re going with lannisport.

#gilmore girls #noble houses of westeros #asoiaf

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fates-theysband · 2 years ago

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too late. rejoice, death and taxes characters you should ship with be upon ye. left to right, top to bottom: cerri, mortimer, gus, herbert (& tim), the prime curator, FRANK WHITTLE (caps canon), florian the eradicator, spawn 114

"[media] characters you should ship with" is the trend now. someone hold me back from just posting every cerberus's den patron.

#smoking cw #fun facts: herbert is voiced by philosophytube and FRANK is voiced by the stupendium :)

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whitefoxedarchives · 6 years ago

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Dragon Age: The Fox Nine

The Black Fox have always been an Orlesian dream, a hero to its common class and an envious bane to the upper echelons. To use the symbol was both an affront and honour to the Game.

To bear it, requires ability. Ability to play the Game. Ability to bear the consequences of insulting the Game. Ability to prove both or it would just be a mockery.

Such was when the White Fox appeared during the War of the Lions, upon the most ridiculous young noble to attend the University of Orlais.

Duke Elisaid von Dufayel, grandson of King Meghren, son of Daniel von Dufayel.

Thus bringing to light the mystery offence which Emperor Florian sent Meghren to Ferelden for. Back then, Meghren had accepted a wedding arranged by the Dufayel family, and had tried to keep it secret due to his illicit relationship with Florian. The plan failed, but resulted in a heir. However, Daniel von Dufayel was brought up by the mage Severan in the absence of his tyrant father, and influenced to side with the Circle of Magi. Meanwhile Meghran would forget he had a wife and son, as long as they stayed out of sight. During the battle of River Dane, Severan arranged for Daniel to be sent back to the Dufayel family in Val Royeaux before he died.

Later, Daniel would marry Naomi Vuhs, an ancient but quiet family of moderate power, while increasing connections with Severan’s contacts from the Circle. Unknown to him, the Vuhs family was a clan of apostates who survived Drakon’s eradication and have remained secret since. The couple remained childless for years till Celene Valmont’s coronation in 9:20 Dragon.

Brought up under Empress Celene’s rule, and both his parents’ influences, Elisaid is rather open to the idea of freedom for mages and elves alike. Attending the University of Orlais, while having little talent in the bardic arts, he became known for realistic and engineered artworks. Under his maternal family’s tutelage, he is also an exceptional Rift Mage, with shapeshifting as an inherited knowledge. And it just so happens that the other form he takes is one of a nine-tailed fox.

Elisaid dresses in Dufayel colours of gold and black, while his own personal accents are white and blue. It matches the pale (almost white) blonde hair and blue eyes he inherited from his mother. Dragons of the Dufayel heraldry adorns his clothes and accessories, accompanied by either a white or nine tailed fox. He has two masks: A half mask of black etched with gold, and a full fox mask of varying white and blue designs.

His trademark accessory is a brilliant blue sapphire earring and its white tassel on his left ear. His only makeup are blue and silver dust eyeshadow.

During the War of the Lions, the Dufayel family remained neutral although Daniel himself sided with Gaspard against the family’s wishes. This led to Daniel being disowned during the Riots, where he later perished in crossfire.

Offshoot of Royalty Verse; for Dragon Age roleplays

@shield-of-shame

#lise.royalty #lise.royalty.DA #! so i did a little homework #! this is what i ended up with

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beautifulcollectorcollectivepeas · 6 years ago

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Detailed Notes on Promark Vr Drone Parts in an Easy to Follow Manner

The Do's and Don'ts of Promark Vr Drone Parts /h1>

Stretching out your hand to have a selfie is now obsolete. You don't need to be concerned about losing the drone since it has a Return Home function. Turnaround time for orders can be a couple of days to weeks based on the part's availability.

A worldwide career can be launched from the comfort of your house, so long as you experience an online connection. Best management wants people to locate a solution and to present it, it is a different method of thinking even for China. For the near future, it's going to be quite difficult for manufacturers of commercial quadcopter drones, that is the huge majority of all drones sold each calendar year, to compete with DJI.

Don't forget, if you need assistance getting in contact with your retailer for some friendly advice, preferably before you begin opening up your drone. A great deal of new pilots have an inclination afford the drone Photographyout to a certain elevation and remain there. In reality, obtaining a great drone is useless in the event the command with which you handle it's not up to scratch.

They are also a lot cheaper and better than they were even a couple of years ago. They are going to be a ubiquitous part of the future. On the flip side, a swarm of smaller, cheaper drones is more difficult to attack, especially in case the drones are distributed in a variety of locations.

Normally it's included with the drone, but if it's not, it's sensible to earn an excellent investment in it and thus have the ability to make the most of it with future better drones that we buy. Drones are used for fishing too. Unlike a typical drone, a VR drone employs the digital reality technology to provide you with an immersive flight experience, very similar to that you would get when flying a true plane.

It's better to stick with simple alternatives that are available at local stores. Purchasing a new TV or screen is too expensive once the problem is just a scratch. It's possible to navigate through the respective categories, like electronics, cellphones, health and beauty goods, and a lot more besides.

Moreover, the module also comes with a mini-HDMI output port in addition to a micro USB port and CAN expansion port. There was not any simple solution. There are several digital reality drones and options for headsets including Zeiss VR.

It would be far better in the event the drone managed to connect to your phone via Bluetooth. You do have to check whether the new drone can be used with your previous controller because some may not operate even if they're on exactly the same channel or frequency. It is equipped with EO as well as thermal cameras.

The ideal VR quadcopters have an effective camera and a fair flight time. A hot-swappable battery eradicates power-related downtime to guarantee maximum available power. If you have the Phantom 4 Pro, you might need to want to upgrade to the quick battery charger rather than the one which includes the package.

Leave any of the images you wish to use. For Florian Ledoux, photography has ever been the purest kind of expression. You may capture each one of the ideal moments and use the footage to create awesome videos or slideshows.

Promark Vr Drone Parts - the Conspiracy

The overall cost for each of the materials to build 1 drone came to $600. Some particular regions of the drones that may have arrived for servicing may be beyond the capacity of repair. The drone is prepared for use together with the user doesn't need to purchase more appliances or parts to be capable of using it.

Fixed-wing UAVs continue to be made in limited numbers, making units significantly more expensivesometimes around a hundred times more pricey. DJI produces all in 1 UAV system based on what you're attempting to use a drone for. Drone regulations differ based on location.

Point selection is pretty tricky, you've got to be cautious not to select unwanted points. The very first area of the trail is experiencing forest. Perhaps the perfect drone form factor is substantially more compact than the current mega drones on the marketplace.

You won't only seem more professional (even when you're not performing an industrial flight), but you won't be blind to the measures which you want to take as an expert operator. The genuine number then is extremely tough to predict. There are a lot of distinct designs offered and I wish to use a mixture of the greatest available.

#promark vr drone parts

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swynlake-rp · 3 years ago

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“Did I frighten you?”

FULL NAME: Prince Florian Hightower BASED ON: The Prince (Snow White) FACE CLAIM: Up-to-Player PRONOUNS: Up-to-Player BIRTHDAY: Up-to-Player CURRENT STATUS: Open

Character Information

Once a member of Order of the Prince, a secret society dedicated to eradicating dangerous Magicks

Florian’s family was known for slaying vampires, and Florian followed in their footsteps…

… till he fell in love with a vampire and began to doubt everything he learned…

But he was forced to end the affair when his family found out and was then exiled from the Order…

Now, the Order has fallen and Florian has lost everything he’s once known

He comes to Swynlake looking for his lost love, hoping to rekindle their romance and start a new life

✓ Patient, devoted, shrewd

✖ Frivolous, pushover, close-minded

Character Suggestions

None

Current Relationships

None

Possible Relationships

click here!

Magical Abilities

None

#snow white #allch #malech #nonmagicch #snowwhitech #opench #openmalech

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cmwatlington-blog · 6 years ago

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I have spent a majority of my adult life as a first responder working as a firefighter and paramedic. I began pursuing a master in public health for multiple reasons, one being the opportunity to learn outside my comfort zone. Yet, at the very first opportunity I had, I found myself drawn back into a familiar world. My time working as a first responder will forever be near and dear in my heart. Despite waking up every morning and being eager to go to work, I wanted more and waited for the opportunity to further my education. That said, I had mixed feelings about joining Team Prepare. I was excited; it felt comfortable and safe, but it also limited my goal of self-expansion. However, this team has provided me with the opportunity to reflect on the past. While working as a firefighter paramedic, I did not take the chance to do introspection often, perhaps due to the lack of opportunity of free time to let my mind go there, or maybe it was the culture I worked in. As a first responder, you focus on what you may have to do in the future. You continuously train to face the unknown and unknowable, so you're present to make the most of each situation to prepare you for the future better. I take that experience with me to help Team Prepare succeed. Team Prepare has selected leaders for each deliverable, and we are working diligently in smaller groups and as a team to achieve our goals.

Our first deliverable is increasing vaccination awareness and emergency preparedness. Until this assignment, I never really gave vaccinations much thought. It just seemed like the only option if you can get vaccinated. I indeed came into contact with individuals who legitimately for one reason or another couldn’t get vaccinated. I find it frustrating that people claim that vaccines cause autism, which can take a nearly eradicated disease like measles and cause it to spread in the most vulnerable populations (i.e. children). Yet I am exercising empathy by seeking to understand why a parent would choose the risk of potentially fatal diseases over raising a child with autism. Jules and Emily are heading this project and have put together a vaccination flyer for upcoming events.

Preparedness runs in my blood, perhaps to a fault. I’m a planner, a scheduler, and a prepper. Although in the last two years I have been humbled on just how small I am up against nature. In fact, I seem to find a new sense of focus in such situations. The emergency zone is where I work best. It is an intense, internal battle. I am not a procrastinator, yet I work better under pressure, often in the form of time. Shirl and I created an emergency preparedness flyer to prepare for Hurricane Florence landfall. Many two-lane country roads were impassable due to the amount of rain during the storm and will continue to be for some time. This storm has completely cut-off some rural communities, furthering the importance of preparedness.

The second deliverable is spreading the word of the importance of volunteerism at the local fire station. Recruitment in the fire service is hard for me to understand. I worked at a department that was completely paid, and the hiring process was extremely competitive due to the number of applicants. The dynamics of career firefighters and volunteer firefighters are much different. I understand that it may be difficult to drop what you’re doing at a moment’s notice for an unknown amount of time to help a stranger in need. I also know that there are stereotypes about the type of people suited for such a position. My mother always told me you could do anything you work hard enough to do. So naturally, I never thought that being female was a barrier to anything, but I have since realized that my opinion is in the minority. This deliverable provides me with the opportunity to share the same advice with women and minorities of the community and encourage them to represent the community they serve, regardless of the hidden biases or prejudices others may hold. I have scripted a video with scenes to be recorded, launched via a Facebook campaign, and will be dispersing flyers and announcements at local churches throughout the community. I have also created a citizen’s fire academy that will give the members of the community first-hand exposure to some of the roles and responsibilities of volunteering at the Fire Department. Often property taxes in larger cities are higher, but employment resources are also more plentiful. Rural communities have fewer employment opportunities and therefore need to maintain lower property taxes for residents. Volunteer first responder services are vital to slowing the rise of property taxes, especially in rural areas.

The next deliverable is increasing mental health awareness resources for first responders. However, raising awareness and utilization are two wildly different things. Mental health in the general population is stigmatized, but mental health in the fire service is even more stigmatized. It is incredibly humbling for a “hero” to admit that they are struggling mentally and emotionally with the stressors of the job. It may be especially difficult for someone who is always helping others to admit they need help themselves. The culture of the fire service is inherently stressful. Sometimes you’re up all night, other days you’ll go an entire shift without having a hot meal, combined with time away from home, especially during holidays, and the constant adrenaline rush, the lights, and sirens, etc. This population is especially vulnerable, as noted by the high rates of high blood pressure, obesity, heart attacks, and cancer. Yet there is a complex that comes along with putting your life up as collateral for another. When I brainstorm for this deliverable, I often think: did I do enough for my fellow co-workers? Did I ask questions when the time was right? I am ashamed that the answer is probably no. Instead, I turned to humor and was never short on witty comments to make light of a situation. But the truth is there are runs that I still picture when I close my eyes. There are intersections that I subconsciously began to ramble about, and my husband always says, “you tell me that every time” as we drive through them. There is a conference in Raleigh that is a wonderful opportunity for local Chaplains, social workers, and behavioral/mental health providers can go to learn about the uniqueness of treating first responders. We are partnering with the Florian Symposium to help increase attendance for this opportunity by contacting those directly within such positions. Dena, a Captain at Raleigh Fire Department, is our point of contact and called the conference "a once in a career event."

The final deliverable is increasing CPR education throughout the community. This deliverable is especially close to my heart. While all of our topics have the potential to save lives, I can say without a doubt that there are many people alive today because a trained CPR provider was in the right place at the right time. But death can be unexpected and scary. When discussing the reality of sudden cardiac death, it is hard to not to think of your own mortality. I have previously taught CPR at a community college. The difference was the students were interested in learning and already had a basic foundation of the material and the significance. It is challenging to engage strangers in a hands-on, intimidating topic like sudden death. It is even more difficult to get them to remain calm in the situation, especially in the face of a loved one’s cardiac arrest. Going into sudden cardiac arrest outside of the hospital has a significantly decreased chance of survival. In a rural community, this education is typically more important, as rural response time for trained providers is often longer than the response time of first responders in a larger city. Jeanie and Olu went to the library and formed a great partnership, which has provided us with the opportunity to use the public library space to host two events throughout the semester to teach community members the importance of learning CPR.

The hurricane caused our first event (SAAW) to be rescheduled twice just when I felt like we were gaining some steam. This week, nearly halfway through the semester, I feel like the lines of communication within and between group members have opened up significantly. I feel like we are learning how to collaborate with each other as the semester goes on. I formed bonds with co-workers readily from overcoming stressful situations; perhaps the hurricane had the same effect on Team Prepare.

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talesofvitaeria · 7 years ago

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From left to right, The Birds:

Raven (Sync), Crow (Canon Ion), Dove, Robin (Florian), and Jay!

The Birds are the five remaining replicas of the original Fon Master Ion. They may wear their hair differently, but few people outside of church officials know there are more than one. All five of the Birds are very close, but it’s Crow, their unofficial leader, who keeps them together and focused on their goal of eradicating the Score!

#tales of vitaeria #fon master raven tov #fon master crow tov #fon master dove tov #fon master robin tov #fon master jay tov #the birds tov #ashe npcs

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curmudgeonly-reader · 8 years ago

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A Night Without Stars

A Night Without Stars: A Novel of the Commonwealth (Commonwealth Chronicle of the Fallers), by Peter F. Hamilton

In this book Peter F. Hamilton brings to a close the story begun in The Abyss Beyond Dreams. It's now some 250 years after the clone of Nigel Sheldon broke down The Void, an area where time and physics no longer acted normally. This ejected the planet of Bienvenido with its population of humans who had been stranded and isolated from their home planets while within the Void. Now, millions of light years away from the nearest planetary system, they feel no less isolated. And there are two pressures on the human population: the revolution that took place shortly before the Void was destroyed has become a totalitarian police state and the Fallers are increasing. Fallers are another creature that had been trapped in the Void. They can absorb and mimic humans and will even feast on them. Called Fallers because the spherical eggs that produced them fell from the sky, once they take human form the only way to tell them from any other human is that their blood is blue.

In the time that passed from the first novel the population of Bienvenido has had to make other adjustments. They are no longer able to understand each other in the semi-psychic way that the Void allowed. At the same time, now that physics functions normally again they have begun to expand their engineering and scientific knowledge. The combustion engine has been reintroduced as has the atomic bomb. The latter is being used to try to eradicate nests of the Fallers.

On one of these clearing missions, Ry Evin, of the People's Astronaut Regiment, notices an object streaking out of the atomic firebomb. This object contains a backup plan left by Nigel's clone in the event that his mission didn't succeed. What is in this and who will get to control it becomes the center of this book.

Hamilton creates a tense atmosphere throughout the book. There is tension within the "people's government" now ruling through dense bureaucracy and secret police who use informants planted among the population. And when a near-hermit forest warden named Florian finds the object expelled from the atomic blast the book becomes like the best kind of police chase, where the runner and the chaser are both followed in the book and we can watch from every perspective.

In the first of these books the action began to center around a discovery in a place known as the Desert of Bones. The centerpoint of this book is even more powerful and interesting.

If I have a complaint about the book it's that the ending has a type of deus ex machina ending. It probably has less irritation for someone who has stayed with the Commonwealth books from the start, but for someone starting with these two books it seems to come out of the blue. The only advice I can give to a newer Hamilton fan is to scour the chronology included at the start of the book. If you have the audio version you can still see the chronology in the free preview or "look inside" offer for the Kindle version on Amazon. It will give some answers. After that, you get the joy of working your way through the other books in the series until Hamilton's next book drops.

#books #review #fiction #sci-fi #science fiction #Peter F. Hamilton

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thermoplasticroadmarking · 6 years ago

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The problem with TEF – a look at the technical failings

Professor DV Bishop outlines the multiple flaws in the TEF methodology

In a previous post I questioned the rationale and validity of the Teaching Excellence and Student Outcomes Framework (TEF). Here I document the technical and statistical problems with TEF.

How are statistics used in TEF?

Two types of data are combined in TEF: a set of ‘contextual’ variables, including student backgrounds, subject of study, level of disadvantage, etc., and a set of ‘quality indicators’ as follows:

Student satisfactionas measured by responses to a subset of items from the National Student Survey (NSS)

Continuation – the proportion of students who continue their studies from year to year, as measured by data collected by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)

Employment outcomes- what students do after they graduate, as measured by responses to the Destination of Leavers from Higher Education survey (DLHE)

As detailed further below, data on the institution’s quality indicators is compared with the ‘expected value’ that is computed based on the contextual data of the institution. Discrepancies between obtained and expected values, either positive or negative, are flagged and used, together with a written narrative from the institution, to rate each institution as Gold, Silver or Bronze. This beginner’s guide provides more information.

Problem 1: Lack of transparency and reproducibility

When you visit the DfE’s website, the first impression is that it is a model of transparency. On this site, you can download tables of data and even consult interactive workbooks that allow you to see the relevant statistics for a given provider. Track through the maze of links and you can also find an 87-page technical document of astounding complexity that specifies the algorithms used to derive the indicators from the underlying student data, DLHE survey and NSS data.

The problem, however, is that nowhere can you find a script that documents the process of deriving the final set of indicators from the raw data: if you try to work this out from first principles by following the HESA guidance on benchmarking, you run into the sand, because the institutional data is not provided in the right format. When I asked the TEF metrics team about this, I was told: “The full process from the raw data in HESA/ILR returns, NSS etc. cannot be made fully open due to data protection issues, as there is sensitive student information involved in the process.” But this seems disingenuous. I can see that student data files are confidential, but once this information has been extracted and aggregated at institutional level, it should be possible to share it. If that isn’t feasible, then the metrics team should be able to at least generate some dummy data sets, with scripts that would do the computations that convert the raw metrics into the flags that are used in TEF rankings.

As someone interested in reproducibility in science, I’m all too well aware of the problems that can ensue if the pipeline from raw data to results is not clearly documented – this short piece by Florian Markowetz makes the case nicely. In science and beyond, there are some classic scare stories of what can happen when the analysis relies on spreadsheets: there’s even a European Spreadsheet Risks Interest Group. There will always be errors in data – and sometimes also in the analysis scripts: the best way to find and eradicate them is to make everything open.

Problem 2: The logic of benchmarking

The idea of benchmarking is to avoid penalising institutions that take on students from disadvantaged backgrounds:

“Through benchmarking, the TEF metrics take into account the entry qualifications and characteristics of students, and the subjects studied, at each university or college. These can be very different and TEF assessment is based on what each college or university achieves for its particular students within this context. The metrics are also considered alongside further contextual data, about student characteristics at the provider as well as the provider’s location and provision.”

One danger of benchmarking is that it risks entrenching disadvantage. Suppose we have institutions X and Y, which are polar opposites in terms of how well they treat students. X is only interested in getting student fees, does not teach properly, and does not care about drop-outs – we hope such cases are rare, but, as this Panorama exposé showed, they do exist, and we’d hope that TEF would expose them. Y, by contrast, fosters its students and does everything possible to ensure they complete their course. Let us further suppose that X offers a limited range of vocational courses, whereas Y offers a wider range of academic subjects, and that X has a higher proportion of disadvantaged students. Benchmarking ensures that X will be evaluated relative to other institutions offering similar courses to a similar population. This can lead to a situation where, because poor outcomes at X are correlated with its subject and student profile, expectations are low, and poor scores for student satisfaction and completion rates are not penalised.

Benchmarking is well-intentioned – its aim is to give institutions a chance to shine even if they are working with students who may struggle to learn. However, it runs the risk of making low expectations acceptable. It could be argued that, while there are characteristics of students and courses that affect student outcomes, in general, higher education institutions should not be offering courses where there is a high probability of student drop-out. And students would find it more helpful to see raw data on drop-out rates and student satisfaction, than to merely be told that an institution is Bronze, Silver or Gold – a rating that can only be understood in relative terms.

Problem 3: The statistics of benchmarking

The method used to do benchmarking comes from Draper and Gittoes (2005), and is explained here. A more comprehensive statistical treatment and critique can be found here. Essentially, you identify background variables that predict outcomes, assess typical outcomes associated with each combination of these in the whole population under consideration, and then calculate an ‘expected’ score, as a mean of these combinations, weighted by the frequency of each combination at the institution.

The obtained score may be higher or lower than the ‘expected’ value. The question is how you interpret such differences, bearing in mind that some variation is expected just due to random fluctuations. The precision of the estimate of both observed and expected values will increase as the sample size increases: you can compute a standard error around the difference score, and then use statistical criteria to identify cases with difference scores that are likely to be meaningful and not just down to random noise. However, where there is a small number of students, it is hard to distinguish a genuine effect from noise, but where there is a very large number, even tiny differences will be significant. The process used in benchmarking uses statistical criteria to assign ‘flags’ to indicate scores that are extremely good (++), or good (+), or extremely bad (–) or bad (-) in relation to expectation. To ameliorate the problem of tiny effects being flagged in large samples, departures from expectation are flagged only if they exceed a specific number of percentage points.

This is illustrated for the case of one of the NSS measurements in Figure 1, which shows that the problem of sample size has not been solved: a large institution is far more likely to get a flagged score (either positive or negative) than a small one. Indeed, a small institution is a pretty safe bet for a silver award.

Figure 1. The Indicator (x-axis) is the percentage of students with positive NSS ratings, and the z-score (y-axis) shows how far this value is from expectation based on benchmarks. The plot illustrates several things: (a) the range of indicators becomes narrower as sample size increases; (b) most scores are bunched around 85%; (c) for large institutions, even small changes in indicators can make a big difference to flags, whereas for small institutions, most are unflagged, regardless of the level of indicator; (d) the number of extreme flags (filled circles or asterisks) is far greater for large than small institutions.

Problem 4: Benchmarking won’t work at subject level

From a student perspective, it is crucial to have information about specific courses; institution-wide evaluation is not much use to anyone other than vice-chancellors who wish to brag about their rating. However, the problems I have outlined with small samples are amplified if we move to subject-level evaluation. I raised this issue with the TEF metrics team, and was told:

‘The issue of smaller student numbers ‘defaulting’ to silver is something we are aware of. Paragraph 94 on page 29 of the report on findings from the first subject pilot mentions some OfS analysis on this. The Government consultation response also has a section on this. On page 40, the government response to question 10 refers to assessability, and potential methods that could be used to deal with this in future runs of the TEF.’

So the OfS knows they have a problem, but seems determined to press on, rather than rethinking the exercise.

Problem 5: You’ll never be good enough

The benchmarks used in TEF are based on identifying statistical outliers. Forget for a moment the sample size issue, and suppose we have a set of institutions with broadly the same large number of students, and a spread of scores on a metric, such that the mean percentage meeting criterion is 80%, with a standard deviation of 2% (see Figure 2). We flag the bottom 10% (those with scores below 77.5%) as problematic. In the next iteration of the exercise, those with low scores have either gone out of business, improved their performance, or learned how to game the metric, and so we no longer have anyone scoring below 77.5%. The mean score thus increases and the standard error decreases. So now, on statistical grounds, a score below 78.1% gets flagged as problematic. In short, with a statistical criterion for poor performance, even if everyone improves dramatically, or poor-performers drop out, there will still be those at the bottom of the distribution – unless we get to a point where there is no meaningful variation in scores.

Figure 2: Simulated data showing how improvements in scores can lead to increasing cutoff in the next round if statistical criterion is adopted.

The bottom line

TEF may be summarised thus:

Take a heterogenous mix of variables, all of them proxy indicators for ‘teaching excellence’, which vary hugely in their reliability, sensitivity and availability

Transform them into difference scores by comparing them with ‘expected’ scores derived from a questionable benchmarking process

Convert difference scores to ‘flags’, whose reliability varies with the size of the institution

Interpret these in the light of qualitative information provided by institutions

All to end up with a three-point ordinal scale, which does not provide students with the information that they need to select a course.

Time, maybe, to ditch the TEF and encourage students to consult the raw data instead to find out about courses?

from RSSMix.com Mix ID 8239600 http://cdbu.org.uk/the-problem-with-tef-a-look-at-the-technical-failings/ via IFTTT

#marking specialists #marking contractors #playground markings #play area surface designs

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advertisingproductioncompany · 6 years ago

Text

The problem with TEF – a look at the technical failings

Professor DV Bishop outlines the multiple flaws in the TEF methodology

In a previous post I questioned the rationale and validity of the Teaching Excellence and Student Outcomes Framework (TEF). Here I document the technical and statistical problems with TEF.

How are statistics used in TEF?

Student satisfactionas measured by responses to a subset of items from the National Student Survey (NSS)

Continuation – the proportion of students who continue their studies from year to year, as measured by data collected by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)

Employment outcomes- what students do after they graduate, as measured by responses to the Destination of Leavers from Higher Education survey (DLHE)

Problem 1: Lack of transparency and reproducibility

Problem 2: The logic of benchmarking

The idea of benchmarking is to avoid penalising institutions that take on students from disadvantaged backgrounds:

Problem 3: The statistics of benchmarking

Problem 4: Benchmarking won’t work at subject level

So the OfS knows they have a problem, but seems determined to press on, rather than rethinking the exercise.

Problem 5: You’ll never be good enough

Figure 2: Simulated data showing how improvements in scores can lead to increasing cutoff in the next round if statistical criterion is adopted.

The bottom line

TEF may be summarised thus:

Take a heterogenous mix of variables, all of them proxy indicators for ‘teaching excellence’, which vary hugely in their reliability, sensitivity and availability

Transform them into difference scores by comparing them with ‘expected’ scores derived from a questionable benchmarking process

Convert difference scores to ‘flags’, whose reliability varies with the size of the institution

Interpret these in the light of qualitative information provided by institutions

All to end up with a three-point ordinal scale, which does not provide students with the information that they need to select a course.

Time, maybe, to ditch the TEF and encourage students to consult the raw data instead to find out about courses?

from CDBU http://cdbu.org.uk/the-problem-with-tef-a-look-at-the-technical-failings/ via IFTTT

#advertising company #specialist marketing company #expert marketing services #advertising strategies

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clubofinfo · 7 years ago

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Expert: This document was submitted to the United Nations Human Rights Commission, Office of the Commissioner, based in Geneva, Switzerland in the name of Cuba solidarity organizations in the New York-New Jersey area of the United States. These are the political views and analysis of the author. ***** The first members of a team of 165 Cuban doctors and health workers unload boxes of medicines and medical material from a plane upon their arrival at Freetown’s airport to help the fight against Ebola in Sierra Leone, on October 2, 2014. Florian Plaucheur—AFP/Getty Image The purpose of this submission is not to draw up a list contrasting the false propaganda narrative on Cuba over human rights and democratic freedom, with the actual facts and reality of Cuba’s legal and criminal justice systems; its prisons; its media; the rights of free speech, assembly, and the organization of labor; Cuba’s actual electoral system and voting procedures; and the truth regarding mass political participation in decision-making on the island. The facts on these realities would no doubt come as a surprise to those only exposed to the propaganda and half-truths of the US government and “Western” big-business commercial media. With this submission I am rather more interested in the political framework that “human rights” becomes a cover and a false club for Washington’s anti-Cuba policies. While it is certainly necessary to formulate principles and guidelines on human rights, as codified in the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which Cuba has signed, half-truths, demagogy, and grotesque hypocrisy and double standards should never stand unanswered. Assertions, no matter how often repeated, are not necessarily facts. Half-truths can be the most dangerous type of lie. Today political opponents of socialist Cuba grudgingly concede massive Cuban advances in the fields of medical care and universal education, which in any case are hard to ignore. It is also hard to ignore the amazing history of Cuban medical and disaster-relief internationalism benefiting many millions worldwide. This was highlighted most recently by Cuba’s decisive role in containing the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014. Nevertheless, Cuba’s political system, human rights practice, and democratic space is continually subjected to malevolent attacks by conservative and liberal US political leaders and corporate media. There is, as well, other generally unreasonable criticism, wrenched out of the context – the overwhelming fact and reality for the Cuban people – of Washington’s never-ending pressure, alongside great economic and military coercion, against the Caribbean island. The US economic and political war against Cuba is presented by these forces — in a classic Big Lie – as an “excuse” for “repression.” This puts the truth on its head. Who is Isolated and Who is Not? The Donald Trump White House has stepped up anti-Cuba rhetoric and threats. On September 19, 2017 President Trump gave a bellicose, threatening speech to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). In addition to harsh attacks on North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela, Trump singled out Cuba, reading traditional US government boilerplate from his teleprompter. It was delivered to a notably muted response from the assembled delegations. Earlier this year, the Trump Administration announced it is rewriting travel regulations aimed at cutting back on individual travel by US citizens and legal residents to Cuba. This is to be done by threatening stricter enforcement of existing US travel sanctions eased in the last two years of the second term of the Barack Obama Administration. Nevertheless, the Trump Administration has chosen not to abrogate the establishment of diplomatic relations between Washington and Havana that was implemented in 2015. This registers the political weakness and isolation of US anti-Cuba policy over the past decade, registered not only in UN votes, but also in diplomatic gatherings and summits across Latin America and the Caribbean. Trump’s UN demagogy had the political aim winning allies, especially in Latin America, for a campaign to isolate Venezuela and Cuba, and create the political conditions to implement “regime change” in both countries. It is more likely that Trump, his Administration, and the US government as a whole, will be found politically isolated. It remains to be seen how many of the Hemispheric governments the Trump White House is courting will be comfortable aligning themselves with Washington against Venezuela and Cuba. Crucially for US policymakers, there is also the overwhelming popular consciousness against US anti-Cuba policies, across the Americas and internationally. It should be clear to Trump and Washington as well that there will also be great and mounting opposition and resistance to these policies from inside the United States. On November 1, the UN General Assembly will again, in an annual exercise since 1992, register the stunning isolation of US anti-Cuba policies when it again votes overwhelmingly in favor of the “Necessity of Ending the Economic, Commercial, and Financial Embargo by the United States of America Against Cuba.” For years the annual UN vote has been a major political embarrassment for various US Administrations and Congresses, with lopsided, near-unanimous support for the Cuban government-sponsored Resolution at the General Assembly vote. Results of 2016 UN General Assembly vote against US “economic, commercial, and financial embargo against Cuba Many mistakenly thought the US economic, commercial, and financial embargo – which has a central “extraterritorial” component that has inspired unanimous opposition around the world – had ended or been significantly ameliorated with the restoration of diplomatic relations. That was not the case and enforcement of the US embargo and sanctions has never stopped or been reversed legally. US intervention against Cuba has from the outset been accompanied by an economic, commercial, and financial embargo aimed at nothing less than the asphyxiation of Cuba to prevent the carrying out of the Revolution’s bold, revolutionary measures, genuinely transformative, to advance policies of: eradicating illiteracy; guaranteeing access to health care and free education for all Cubans; the eradication of legal race discrimination and the huge advances in the position of Cubans of African origin; a commitment to and again huge advances in the position of women in every field, overcoming the depredations of the Batista era; an independent foreign policy based on international solidarity and revolutionary struggle, and much more in that spirit. That is, the spirit of a genuine revolution that was of the oppressed, by the exploited, and for the poor. It is absurd to the point of obscene to downplay decades of US intervention, attempts at economic isolation and blockade, and aggression against Cuba in discussing the question of “democracy” in Cuba. The historical record of US aggression is no secret anywhere in the world, including in the United States. This actual record frankly makes Cuba’s real achievements in human rights, including in the political space, rights, liberties, and mass participation for all Cuban citizens in decision making, and how that has expanded, nothing less than astonishing. Cuba is certainly not a capitalist parliamentary democracy, where formal “democratic” institutions and mechanisms are under increasing pressures and encroachments under conditions of economic crisis, social polarizations, and the domination of big money and private media oligopolies. Cuba’s political system unfolded and has developed institutionally under the conditions of the extreme pressure of the US blockade. Some 3500 Cuban civilians have died from violent counter-revolutionary action and terrorism of every kind since the 1959 triumph of the Cuban Revolution. It is a fact that all of this was largely organized from US territory (in violation of US law) and politically supported, financially sustained, and armed with the direct or indirect support of the United States government and its “national security” and “intelligence” agencies. There have been many billions of dollars in damage and sabotage against the Cuban economy from US attempts to seal the island in an economic blockade. Every year the US governments spends tens of millions of dollars openly — and who knows how much covertly — in projects kept “secret” by US legislation (although they are regularly exposed by the Cuban government and then collapse). It is clear that the only possible road to the further opening of political space for the pro-capitalist political forces and tendencies who look to the United States government for inspiration and support, would be for bipartisan Washington to establish normal relations with Cuba. The establishment of formal diplomatic relations is a necessary precondition, which President Donald Trump has chosen not to abrogate, for this. Normal relations can only mean: 1) the ending of all economic, commercial, financial and travel sanctions by the US against the Cuban state; 2) the immediate withdrawal and return of the illegally occupied territory of Guantanamo Bay to Cuba; and 3) the end of all “regime change” programs directed at Cuba by US government agencies. “Repression” We can dismiss with derision any sincere desire on the part of successive US White Houses and Congresses for more democratic space in Cuba for two overriding reasons. First: One must distinguish fine words from actual practice. US intervention in the Caribbean and Latin America since the Spanish-American War of 1898 has involved a shameless (and shameful) history of organizing, installing, supporting, and sustaining numerous bloody military regimes and dictatorships in the interests of US capital and Latin American oligarchies and opposing progressive and revolutionary democratic struggles. This is an almost endless list: from Somoza’s Nicaragua to Duvalier’s Haiti to Batista’s Cuba, and on and on. The military dictatorships in Brazil (the 1964 coup there was strongly motivated by the Goulart regime’s maintenance of diplomatic relations with revolutionary Cuba), Chile, Uruguay, and Argentina in the 1960s and 1970s. Since the triumph of the Cuban Revolution and its development – under US military pressure and the CIA-organized mercenary invasion of 1961 – into a socialist revolution and a workers’ state, these brutal US policies and alliances with Latin American oligarchies have been presented with an anti-communist mask. Cuba, by contrast, has an exemplary history of supporting democratic and revolutionary struggles against these dictatorships and providing asylum to fighters against them. This first reason begs the question of double-standards and hypocrisy. Second: it is, of course, the very aggressive, interventionist, and violent policies – crowned by an economic war aimed at asphyxiation – that makes it necessary for Cuba to be vigilant, and defend itself by any means necessary. These politically and morally justified measures are then labeled “repression” and used to rationalize, speciously, the US economic and political war. Perhaps a lesson from US history would be useful here. There are defenders of the Southern slaveocracy, the “Confederacy,” and even some who claim the mantle of civil liberties, that criticize President Abraham Lincoln for restrictions and censorship of pro-slavery and pro-Confederate newspapers and suspending habeas corpus protections for suspected pro-Confederate agents and sympathizers. At the very time these forces were engaged in a war to defend the maintenance and expansion of slavery in the United States. As the Civil War unfolded by 1863-64 it was becoming a revolutionary war – especially with the infusion of some 200,000 African-American troops in the US Army and Navy – to abolish slavery. You can be sure that the Confederate Agents and their apologists had their political space and access to legal media completely evaporated by the government and people of the United States as the war radicalized. We should also recall that it was during the period of Radical Reconstruction under President Ulysses Grant and the Radical Republican domination of the US Congress, that the greatest advances in the rights of Black former slaves (as well as masses of poor white farmers) and democratic rights for the vast majority were enforced by the occupation of the United States Army and the repression of the social and political power of the former ruling slave-owning planter class. The end of that “repression” after 1876 and the withdrawal of US Army from the ex-Confederate states brought back unfettered white supremacy, the rise of white terrorist outfits like the KKK, and a body blow to democratic rights, political space, workers’ rights, and liberty that extended for many decades. It was a curse on the United States which only began to be lifted by the heroic mass struggles of Black working people and their allies in the 1950s and 1960s to overturn the Jim Crown system in the South and across the entire US – at least legally. 200,000 Black Union troops were a decisive factor in the revolutionary abolition of slavery in the course of the US Civil War As long as the United States government is engaged in an open policy of subversion and the funding of clients promoting a policy of overturning the sovereign and socialist Cuban government (which could only mean returning Cuba to the status of a dependent US semi-colony) then it would be extremely naïve to expect the Cuban government and people to not be vigilant and defend themselves. US Federal and Congressional bodies are currently investigating alleged “collusion” between the Presidential campaign of Donald Trump in 2016 with the government of Russia, with furious charges and countercharges flying back and forth between Trump and his opponents. This has occupied much political and media space in the United States whatever its intrinsic worth. The United States, like any other country, has clear laws on its books that criminalize certain “foreign” intervention, and financial manipulations, particularly covertly, in US elections. This has not prevented multiple US government agencies from covert action in the political life, including electoral processes, in many other countries over many decades and to this day. It is also against Cuban law, based on decades of gross US government interference against Cuban sovereignty, for Cuban citizens to take payments and political direction from foreign powers. Insofar as one particular giant foreign power, the United States government, has had an open policy of “regime change” in Cuba, backed by deeds and covert projects up to and including, over many decades, violence and terrorism, it is naïve, if not utterly ridiculous, to expect the Cuban authorities, backed overwhelmingly by the Cuban people, to not take action – even if it is labeled “repression” by the financial and political conductors in Washington, DC – against these forces, who, it should be emphasized, represent a tiny minority of Cuban society and political opinion. Even if this US-directed and financed “dissident” activity is seemingly peaceful, and is generally tolerated, as is the case in Cuba today, it is also true that in periods of heightened tensions and stepped up US pressures and anti-Cuba campaigns, such forces inside can – as has happened many times since the Cuban Revolution – become points of support or pretexts for direct US aggression or terrorism organized from inside the United States, often from forces with historic ties to US intelligence agencies. This is not some wild-eyed conspiracy theory. This is thoroughly documented in even the partially released US documents and all serious scholarly research into the archives and accounts of the period. There was a time in the 1960s where the CIA ran its largest base ever in the Miami, Florida area and was full-time 24/7 planning, organizing, training, recruiting, and dispatching into Cuba exiled Cuban counter-revolutionaries into armed units and large forces for violent armed action in Cuba: assassinations, economic sabotage, setting off bombs in public places, and so on. In this same period and since, and this again is heavily documented, it is known that US intelligence agencies under President John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson ran so-called misinformation and disinformation programs – that is, programs set up to brazenly, if imaginatively, lie – that fed deliberatively false stories to commercial and other news or academic publications regarding Cuba, Fidel Castro, Che Guevara and whatever else they could fling against Cuba. This was part and parcel of the policy of the US government to destroy the Cuban Revolution by any means possible. Such vile programs included spreading the rumor that Fidel Castro had ordered Camilo Cienfuegos executed or that Fidel had fallen out with, imprisoned and even executed Che Guevara, at the very time Che was engaged in revolutionary combat in the Congo and then preparing a Bolivia-based continental revolutionary war in 1965-66, with the full backing of the revolutionary government led by Fidel Castro, and had necessarily dropped out of public space. Camilo Cienfuegos, Fidel Castro, Ernesto Che Guevara It is, of course, inevitable that under conditions of siege, when extreme revolutionary and military discipline is imperative, political polarization is also inevitable. A siege mentality can develop if it is not checked. It is a delicate test for any revolutionary leadership. Abuses can happen and have certainly happened in the course of the Cuban Revolution. What is remarkable is how few of these there have been, compared to other great social revolutions. What is also true is how abuses and errors have always led to debate, confrontation, and correction in many forms. This was also difficult given Cuba’s vulnerability to US attacks and its necessary alliances and economic ties with the Soviet Union and allied Eastern European governments, even as it maintained its national and political independence. One most striking examples of this is how Cuban society and law overcame widespread prejudice and some appalling practice in the first decade of the Cuban Revolution toward LGBT rights to the reality today where Cuba is on the front line of nations in the Western Hemisphere where those rights are most protected publicly and privately. Coming Out of the “Special Period” Cuba is emerging from an extended period of economic crisis and contraction following the overnight collapse of its economic relations with defunct Soviet-bloc governments in the early 1990s, the so-called “Special Period.” Its slow, steady recovery was further interrupted by a series of devastating hurricanes a few years back. We can today add the damage from Hurricane Irma in 2017. In recent years new economic policies being led and implemented by the Raul Castro-led government are starting to kick in. These policies aim at increasing labor productivity and efficiency; technologically modernizing and refitting industrial plant and infrastructure; boosting food production by offering land and other state support and subsidies to private family farmers and farming cooperatives; reducing state and government bureaucracy; and encouraging private wholesale and retail operations, especially in services. Further progress is contingent on attracting capital for investment. Much of this is coming from China, other Latin American countries, and Canada. A major port at Mariel Harbor opened in 2014, largely developed in partnership with Brazilian capital. Personal Observations I have traveled to Cuba on many occasions over more than 30 years and have certain firm, reconfirmed, and consolidated observations: Cubans, far from the bogus stereotype of a cowed, oppressed people, are quite contentious and argumentative in their views on how to move their society forward. They have no illusions or rose-colored glasses in looking at their grinding economic problems and challenges in labor productivity, technological backwardness, housing shortages, and so on. Cubans are very engaged in finding solutions. Cuban society is highly organized and mobilizes for campaigns from mass vaccinations to hurricane relief. There are many grass-roots platforms and mass organizations, particularly trade union organizations, by which ordinary Cubans debate and impact on the formulation and implementation of policies, such as the new economic policies and changes now being implemented. Nearly all Cubans expressed the hope, after the visit of President Barack Obama in 2015, that the normalization of relations between the United States and Cuba will lead to greater industrial and agricultural development for their country. Donald Trump seems to be aiming to reverse the very little, barely incremental changes carried out under Barack Obama after the important advance of re-establishing diplomatic relations. For this observer, having visited Cuba many times from the worst depths of the economic cataclysm of the early 1990s to the present time, it is also apparent that the Special Period era is steadily receding into the past and being overcome at an accelerated pace. Along the famed Malecon ocean side drive and walkway, buildings continue to be rebuilt and repainted, and stylish new buildings have gone up. Old Havana, already a United Nations Heritage site, is renewing its status as an architectural gem. Cubans are mobilizing to repair the damage from Hurricane Irma in Havana and northern coastal areas. There is an expansion and greater visibility for privately owned restaurants, called paladores, which are emerging from a quasi-underground existence. They are more visible today with nice signs and lighting on the outside and more comfort and menu choices inside. Cuba’s tourism industry remains, along with medical services, and nickel, a major source of foreign exchange. Cuba is considered poor by “middle-class” US standards. But it is a strange “poverty.” You see nothing like the destitution of desperate, “crime-riddled,” drug-ravaged, “gang”-infested communities (hello West Baltimore!) that are widespread in every Latin American and Caribbean country, as well as in the US. Street crime in Cuba is almost unheard of and it’s not because of a heavy police presence on the streets. In fact, police seem few and far between. Addiction to hard drugs, and the thriving, profit-making, if nominally illegal, drug businesses that drive it, are also virtually non-existent in Cuba. (Before the Revolution, of course, Cuba was a center of the drug and organized crime rackets; Havana was the home base of top U.S. Mafia families. The Revolution wiped that out. (See The Godfather Part II.) While the most regular complaint I consistently hear from average Cubans is around housing availability, especially for new, young families, as well as bottlenecks and shortages for home repairs, there is also virtually no homelessness. Most Cubans own their homes or pay a pittance in rent. Every Cuban child is in school getting a first-rate education totally free of charge, with an extensive network of technical, vocational, university, and graduate schools, all free. Cuba not only has long conquered illiteracy, but “exports” thousands of teachers to Latin American and African countries, where they organize literacy programs. The Cuban health-care system is a marvel of organization and compassion, with clinics in every neighborhood, all free of charge, from checkup and vaccinations through heart surgery and even transgender and transsexual procedures and surgeries. There is in Cuba today undoubtedly a more relaxed political atmosphere and context in which debates and discussions take place among the Cuban people over the new economic and other polices and changes that are being implemented. These policies are debated out in continuous mass forums in workplaces and neighborhoods as well as in the trade unions and grass-roots mass organizations of women, private and co-operative farmers, students, artists and intellectuals, and within the Cuban Communist Party. This is the actual dynamic that frames and guides policy making decisions and legislation. And the fruits are already apparent in legal and other positive changes on questions ranging from expanded travel rights to ending all legal discrimination and vastly opening up social and cultural space for LGBT Cuban citizens. Any objective observer visiting the island – without malice or prejudice in their brain and heart – cannot but note the desire and ability of average Cuban working people to engage in no-holds-barred discussions on all the questions and challenges facing Cuba today, and debating the policies to overcome them. Cuba is often criticized for its “one-party political system.” But what would any so-called “multiparty system” look like? It could only be imposed on Cuba by a hostile US government. These artificial parties would be largely funded in the United States by deep-pocketed opponents of Cuban socialism. Such outfits, completely outside of the struggles and political life of the Cuban people, with negligible popular support inside Cuba, have often been declared by so-called “dissidents.” Perhaps these “parties” can even be lavishly funded – on the money-driven model of the US, with mudslinging obfuscating TV ads thrown in. This will supposedly be more “democratic” than the elections that have been actually occurring in Cuba for decades that take place by secret ballot, with more than one candidate required by law, from nominations in large community meetings in every community and town. Any changes in the electoral or other mechanisms or procedures in the Cuban political system can only be the expression of the Cuban people’s right to self-determination. The relative political weakening of Washington’s anti-Cuba policy, combined with the mounting changes in the political dynamics among Cuban-Americans, has paved the way for significant shifts in the political orientation and policies of the Cuban government. For a number of years the Raul Castro-led government has been confidently engaging politically with the “Cuban Diaspora,” including in its South Florida heart. At the same time Cuba is less inclined to carry out legal prosecutions and punitive measures against those who collaborate and consort with US government agencies and their subversive schemes in obvious violations of Cuban law. The overhaul in Cuban travel regulations is one example. The release of all “dissidents,” some 75 in all, convicted and imprisoned following increased threats to Cuba in the wake of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, is another. Today, Amnesty International and the Cuban Catholic Church, who have both, to varying degrees, advocated in favor of these US-connected “dissidents” in the past, have declared that there are no more, as they term it, “political prisoners” in Cuba. Cuba Holds the Moral High Ground United Nations-linked organizations such as the World Health Organizations and many other genuine humanitarian and human rights organizations, with no particular political axe to grind, regularly commend Cuba for its outstanding international work of solidarity and humanitarian, and disaster-aid services over dozens of years. Cuba can be said to have carried out a decisive intervention is containing and reversing on the ground the Ebola viral outbreak in West Africa in 2014. On the political-military front, the revolutionary Cuban government, then led by Fidel Castro, was at the center of the retreat and rout of apartheid South Africa on the battlefields of Angola. This is now internationally recognized as decisive in the preservation of Angolan independence, the winning of Namibian Independence, and the unraveling and defeat of the apartheid state in South Africa, as repeatedly and eloquently cited by Nelson Mandela. We are supposed to believe that this society, with this outstanding record and legacy of internationalism and the genuine promotion of human rights – in the face of decades of unremitting political hostility, economic war, military threats, and terrorism directed from Washington, is somehow also a vicious violator of its own people’s rights, freedom, and liberty. In any case, the United States government is in no position to try and capture the moral high ground on human rights in Cuba or elsewhere. The United States government would do well to clean up its own grotesquely unequal, class-biased, and racist so-called criminal justice system, where it is nearly impossible to indict, let alone convict, killer cops. The United States government should hold off on righteous lectures to Cuba, spreading lies about conditions in Cuban prisons, for example, while its prison system is a brutal system of dungeons, where authorities tolerate (and even organize) prison gangs, tolerate mass rape (and the commercial culture makes jokes about it), and guard brutality, mixes juveniles with adults, subjecting both to the torture of “solitary confinement,” and so on. The question facing the UN Human Rights Commission regarding Cuba is whether the Donald Trump Administration is going to seriously attempt to abrogate the establishment of diplomatic relations and attempt to return to a policy of more open aggression. If that turns out to be the case, it is as certain as day turning into night that the Cuban government and people, in their large majority, will defend Cuban sovereignty and the Cuban Revolution by any means necessary. And they will do so with the solidarity and political support of the overwhelming majority of humankind. This will include mass opposition and resistance from inside the United States. http://clubof.info/

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The 10: The Finest August Offerings of All-Time | UFC &reg

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The 10: The Finest August Offerings of All-Time | UFC &reg

With just a one UFC party on the routine for the thirty day period in advance, we’re deviating from the norm this thirty day period in The 10 and wanting back on the greatest fights to strike the Octagon in the thirty day period of August.

Although the bouts that stand out in July and December constantly come to thoughts a little easier mainly because the UFC has traditionally shipped major occasions in the course of Worldwide Struggle Week and at the near of the year, one glimpse at the list that follows will clearly show you that there have been some amazing fights in August about the decades.

This is The 10: The Finest August Offerings of All-Time.

(Take note: as constantly, these are in chronological buy, not ranked)

UFC 87: GSP beats Jon Fitch (Check out on UFC Struggle Pass)

UFC 87 is a fairly large party for the record buffs, as it showcased the debut of Jon Jones and Brock Lesnar’s initial UFC victory, but it’s the welterweight championship main party that stands out the most.

Preventing for the initial time considering the fact that unifying the belts and avenging his loss to Matt Serra, numerous wondered how Georges St-Pierre would perform back in the role of undisputed champion and if Jon Fitch, who had won sixteen straight general heading into their showdown, would be equipped to outwrestle and outwork the French-Canadian titleholder.

About the study course of 25 minutes, St-Pierre turned in one of his most dominant initiatives, successful via scores of fifty-forty three, fifty-forty four and fifty-forty four, showing for the initial time that there was a sizable gap separating the champion from his closest challenger.

UFC a hundred and one: Anderson Silva channels Neo (Check out on UFC Struggle Pass)

A 10 years immediately after The Matrix grew to become a shock box business smash, Neo arrived in the Octagon in the kind of Anderson Silva.

Preventing at light-weight heavyweight for the next time in the UFC, the middleweight champion twisted his overall body out of the way of each and every punch Forrest Griffin threw, countering with precision, pace and power. Silva was basically functioning on a further stage and the former light-weight heavyweight titleholder Griffin had no prospect.

Slip. Bang! Bend. Bang! Twist. Bang!

A sharp jab at last put Griffin down for great and brought one of the most thoughts-blowing performances in UFC record to a merciful stop.

UFC 102: Nogueira and Couture go toe-to-toe (Check out on UFC Struggle Pass)

A few months immediately after Silva defeated Griffin (and BJ Penn submitted Kenny Florian), these two heavyweight luminaries stepped into the Octagon inside the Rose Yard and put on a clearly show.

Equally have been coming off losses – Minotauro Nogueira to Frank Mir, Randy Couture to Brock Lesnar – and the transference of power at the leading of the division had already commenced, but for fifteen minutes in Portland, “Big Nog” and “The Natural” reminded every person why they have been two of the most beloved and respected rivals of their time.

There have been stretches exactly where the veterans slugged it out in the middle of the cage and other moments exactly where their tactical, technological expertise on the ground have been on whole display. And each and every next of the struggle was amazing.

UFC 117: Anderson Silva submits Chael Sonnen (Check out on UFC Struggle Pass)

For several months, Chael Sonnen talked about how he was heading to be the man to halt Silva’s reign atop the middleweight division. Most men and women chalked it up to what we now would say is “Chael becoming Chael” – large talk from one of the most gifted orators in the record of overcome sporting activities.

Then the struggle started off and Sonnen dominated Silva on the mat in Spherical one. And in Spherical 2. And in Spherical three.

And he may possibly truly do this. Silva requires a finish. This is authentic.

And in Spherical four.

Chael’s heading to operate as a result of Anderson Silva, just like he mentioned he would. This is unbelievable.

Two minutes away from authoring one of the most impressive upsets of all-time, Sonnen had a mind cramp. Inside Silva’s guard, he allow “The Spider” management his appropriate wrist and in advance of he could react, Silva threw up a triangle choke and Sonnen was caught.

Sonnen tapped, Silva retained and the initial chapter in one of the greatest rivalries in UFC record was in the books.

UFC 118: Frankie Edgar erased any doubt (Check out on UFC Struggle Pass)

In April of 2010, Frankie Edgar scored a near, hotly debated unanimous final decision get about BJ Penn at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi to get the UFC lightweight title. Specified Penn’s lengthy reign and elite standing, he was granted an instant rematch.

Four months later in Boston, Edgar left no area for debate.

Edgar crafted on the blueprint that labored 4 months earlier, doing work his adhere-and-shift regime even though mixing in timely takedowns and leaving Penn frazzled on the toes. He was swift and fluid, dancing close to the Hawaiian legend, sticking clean jabs and sharp crosses in his experience the entire night time en route to sweeping all five rounds on all 3 scorecards to eradicate all doubt about who was the leading lightweight in UFC.

UFC Stay Hardy vs. Lytle: “Lights Out” Goes Out on a Win (Check out on UFC Struggle Pass)

Chris Lytle was by no means a contender, but he was one of the most constantly entertaining fighters to ever grace the Octagon.

Tougher than a $2 steak and bent on providing the enthusiasts their money’s value whenever his title was on the struggle card, Lytle racked up eight post-struggle bonuses in fourteen fights immediately after appearing on Season four of The Supreme Fighter and designed a cult adhering to.

Prior to his headlining bout with Dan Hardy in Milwaukee, the Indianapolis indigenous declared his retirement, turning in a letter stating his intentions to Dana White at weigh-ins. He allow Hardy know far too, and the pair agreed to put on a clearly show the adhering to night and that’s just what they did.

The welterweights traded leather-based into the last minute of the third round, both locating good results at different factors and both comprehensively taking pleasure in them selves. With just under a minute remaining, Hardy ducked in for a takedown, leaving his neck uncovered and Lytle capitalized, locking in a deep guillotine and drawing a faucet from “The Outlaw.”

As he had during his vocation, Lytle left it all in the cage that night and wrapped matters up in style. He also took dwelling two extra bonuses as effectively.

UFC on FOX Shogun vs. Vera: Joe Lauzon and Jamie Varner incorporate for a classic (Check out on UFC Struggle Pass)

The lightweight veterans met in the center of the fourth UFC on FOX party and shipped one of the quite greatest fights of 2012.

This was one of individuals fights whole of swings and shifts – Varner beginning rapidly, Lauzon proclaiming management only to get dropped. Ebb and movement. Attack and protect. Back and forth. Your convert. My convert.

Midway as a result of the last frame, both gentlemen operating on fumes, but not letting off the gasoline one little bit, Varner strike a completely timed takedown, only to have Lauzon strike a sweep and lock up a triangle choke in the ensuing scramble. It does not get as much enjoy as Lauzon’s upcoming struggle – a bloody, epic clash with Jim Miller – but this was an excellent struggle involving two fantastic, veteran lightweights.

UFC Struggle Night time Shogun vs. Sonnen: Travis Browne Rallies (Check out on UFC Struggle Pass)

Positioned as the penultimate bout on the inaugural UFC struggle card on Fox Athletics one, this heavyweight clash carried explosive possible and surely shipped.

Alistair Overeem started off rapidly, urgent Travis Browne into the fence and doing work the midsection with knees. A minute and change in, Overeem buried a knee into Browne’s stomach that despatched the Hawaiian to the canvas, putting the Dutch superstar in pursuit of the finish. Browne covered up effectively, but ate a few extra knees as he tried using to get to his toes and fend off the onslaught.

When Overeem paused to catch his breath immediately after unleashing non-halt offense for virtually a minute, Browne responded, slinging large punches, making an attempt to get some separation together the fence. But Overeem was unrelenting, continuing to push ahead, showing little worry for the plethora of kicks up the center Browne had been presenting.

With just under a minute left in the round, Browne connected, putting toes to jaw with a entrance kick that despatched Overeem falling to the mat and despatched the group at TD Yard into hysterics.

UFC 190: Rousey rolls as a result of Correia (Check out on UFC Struggle Pass)

Immediately after beating Jessamyn Duke at UFC 172, Bethe Correia extended 4 fingers in the air, the gesture produced famed by the legendary pro wrestling faction The Four Horsemen that had considering the fact that been co-opted by women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey and her instruction partners/roommates/fellow wrestling enthusiasts Duke, Shayna Baszler and Marina Shafir.

As the final decision was declared, Correia dropped a finger, leaving only 3 standing. She recurring the gesture 4 months later immediately after defeating Baszler, throwing up her 4 and using down two in advance of contacting out the chief of the team.

It was a great system, in principle, for the gritty Brazilian, as it caught everyone’s awareness, which include that of Rousey, who agreed to protect her title towards Correia at UFC 190 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. That is exactly where the approach strike a snag.

Rousey rolled into Rio and rolled as a result of Correia, sending her somersaulting backwards into the cage out of a clinch try exactly where she proceeded to blast the challenger with a series of large pictures in advance of ultimately felling her with a clean appropriate hand driving the ear.

UFC 202: The Rematch (Check out on UFC Struggle Pass)

On March 5, 2016, Nate Diaz stunned every person but himself by choking out Conor McGregor in the next of the UFC 196 main party.

Immediately after using the bout on limited recognize and finding bombed on with large power pictures in the initial, Diaz rallied, stinging the Irish standout on the toes, prompting McGregor to shoot for a desperation takedown, opening the doorway for the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Diaz to consider his back, lock in the choke and shock the globe.

McGregor started campaigning for a rematch practically promptly and the two strike the cage yet again at UFC 202 and the sequel managed to surpass the original.

“The Notorious” one was extra economical with his output and additional leg kicks to his assault, but Diaz confirmed his trademark toughness and the bout appeared to be using on a very similar trajectory as the initial struggle, with McGregor beginning scorching and the resilient veteran from Stockton needing time to locate his rhythm in advance of seizing momentum.

But contrary to the initial struggle, McGregor didn’t wilt. As an alternative, he steeled himself towards the press back and countered, successful the struggle in the championship rounds to draw stage with Diaz in their personal series.

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