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phillytalk-blog · 8 years ago

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Examining the Flyers Expansion Draft Strategy

Next season, the NHL will expand to 31 teams with the addition of the Las Vegas Golden Nights. Shortly after the 2016-17 season, NHL teams will have to determine which players they will expose and protect in the Las Vegas expansion draft.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the expansion draft rules (a full, detailed analysis of the rules can be found at CapFriendly):

Vegas has to select one player from every current NHL team

Players with 2 or fewer years of professional experience are automatically exempt from selection

Teams can protect players two different ways, based on position:

7 forwards, 3 defenseman, 1 goalie OR

8 skaters (forwards or defenseman), 1 goalie

All players with no-movement clauses (NMC) are required to be protected, and count against the list of protected players

Teams must expose players at each position, as follows:

2 forwards who are under contract for the 2017-18 and have accrued at least 40 games played in 2016-17 or 70 games played in 2015-16 and 2016-17

1 defenseman who is under contract for the 2017-18 and has accrued at least 40 games played in 2016-17 or 70 games played in 2015-16 and 2016-17

1 goalie who is under contract for the 2017-18 season or is a restricted free agent after the 2016-17 season

Here is a list of current Flyers players who are eligible to be protected/exposed in the expansion draft, as of 2/5/17, thanks to CapFriendly:

The Flyers should have a relatively straightforward plan for their expansion draft strategy. It helps that the only player on the roster with a NMC is Claude Giroux, and the Flyers would protect him regardless. I also think the Flyers should and definitely will opt for the 7F/3D/1G position protection route, as opposed to the 8S/1G option.

Here’s who I would protect, if I were Ron Hextall and the Flyers:

Forwards: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Wayne Simmonds, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton

Defenseman: Shayne Gostisbehere, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning

Goalie: Anthony Stolarz

This would leave enough eligible exposed players at Forward (Matt Read and Dale Weise) and Defense (Andrew MacDonald), but not at goalie - I’ll get to that later.

When choosing the forwards to protect, the first 5 (Giroux, Voracek, Schenn, Couturier, Simmonds) were easy. All 5 players would almost undoubtedly be picked by Las Vegas if given the opportunity.

With regard to the final two forward protections, I felt there were 4 players who had legitimate cases to be protected: Michael Raffl, Jordan Weal, Nick Cousins, and Scott Laughton.

Michael Raffl has proven to be a solid contributor and a good fit alongside Giroux on the top line. Although Raffl certainly isn’t a top-line caliber player or point producer, he’s physical and skilled enough to be a good compliment to Giroux (and usually Voracek) on the top line. He’s also under contract through 2019 for a fairly reasonable cap hit ($2.35 million). Raffl, however, is already 28 years old, and we pretty much know his ceiling in the NHL (10-15 goals, 30-35 points). He’s a guy that the Flyers will miss if Vegas takes him, but can be easily replaceable by a younger, cheaper player. As a result, the Flyers probably shouldn’t protect Raffl.

Jordan Weal has sort-of been a mystery player to Flyers fans since being traded here. He was acquired last season in the Lecavalier/Schenn trade with the Kings, and has played exclusively in the AHL this season with Lehigh Valley. He was 3rd in the AHL in points (20G/49A-69P) and was the Calder Cup MVP in 2014-15 with the Manchester Monarchs. This season, he’s 2nd in the AHL in scoring (15/32-47). Ideally, the Flyers would have a spot for him on the roster this year to see what he can do in the NHL, but it doesn’t look like he’ll get that chance. It seems like Weal might be destined to be a fringe NHLer - one who is probably too good to be in the AHL but can’t quite crack an NHL lineup on a consistent basis. He probably will be exposed in the draft, and the Flyers might lose him.

Nick Cousins has been with the Flyers all season, and looks like he’s probably here to stay. He’s settled in nicely on the third line, but can easily be moved up and down the lineup if needed. Since he’s still only 23 years old, I’d like to see the Flyers protect him. He’s a restricted free agent after the year, but shouldn’t cost much to re-sign - maybe a shade over $1 million per year. He’s a depth forward, with the potential to be a 35 point producer, and will be relatively cheap to keep around for a few years.

Scott Laughton burst onto the scene after the Flyers selected him in the 1st round in 2012 and almost kept him on the roster immediately. He was eventually sent back to his Junior team, but the Flyers had very high hopes he could be a future star. The last 3 seasons, he’s gone back and forth between the Flyers and Phantoms with marginal success. The Flyers are probably trying to play it safe with Laughton by giving him a full year in the AHL this season. He’s transformed his defensive game with the Phantoms, and is even playing on their penalty kill. He’s been decent offensively (10/11-21) but he still has the potential to be a 2nd or 3rd line center in the NHL. I believe he’ll finally get his chance to be that player next season with the Flyers. It’s also sometimes hard to forget that the guy is still only 23 years old. As a result, I think the Flyers should protect Laughton. He’s got too much talent and potential to risk losing him for nothing in the draft.

Selecting the defenseman to protect will probably be Ron Hextall’s easiest task. Thankfully, Ivan Provorov and the other young defensive studs in the Flyers system (Sanheim, Morin, etc.) are exempt from the draft since they haven’t been professionals long enough.

As badly as he’s played this year, and even though he’s been a healthy scratch recently, the Flyers need to protect Shayne Gostisbehere. He’s the runner up rookie of the year and most believe, myself included, he will get through his sophomore slump. You’d be remiss to think Vegas wouldn’t pounce on an opportunity to snag Ghost for nothing.

Radko Gudas, despite his occasional bone-headed penalties, is a solid defenseman and he’s going to be a veteran presence on this defense for a few years. He’s under contract for a manageable cap hit, and he’s actually one of only two Flyers defenseman who’s even contract through 2020 (the other being Andrew MacDonald). As a result, Gudas will be protected.

Brandon Manning has proved over the past year or so that he’s a capable NHL defenseman. He’s not going to wow you with dazzling moves, but he does the little things on defense that often go unnoticed. He’s under contract for less than $1 million through next season - a reasonable number for a 3rd pair defenseman.

Manning will probably be the 3rd and final defenseman to be protected because the Flyers other options are, well, underwhelming, to say the least. Andrew Macdonald, despite being a “top 3-4 defenseman” according to coach Dave Hakstol, has a ridiculous $5.5 cap hit through 2020. He’s also met the exposure requirement, so he can be the Flyers defensive exposure. Streit, Del Zotto, and Schultz are all unrestricted free agents and the Flyers will probably let them all walk in free agency. T.J. Brennan has had a tremendous AHL career, but he’s just not worth protecting at this stage of his career. Robert Hagg is the only other defenseman who might get considered, but I just can’t see Hextall protecting him over Manning.

In relation to the goalie situation...I believe Anthony Stolarz needs to be protected in the expansion draft. It’s clear by now that Steve Mason and/or Michal Neuvirth are not the long-term solution in net, and Stolarz has proven in the AHL that he can be the Flyers goaltender of the future. It’s time to see what the Flyers can do with a home-grown goalie like Stolarz. Oh, and the Flyers also have two other top goalie prospects (Carter Hart and Felix Sandstrom) waiting in the wings if Stolarz falters.

However, this strategy puts the Flyers in a sticky situation at the goaltender position. But hey, it wouldn’t be Philadelphia without a question mark in goal! Since Mason and Neuvirth are both unrestricted free agents after this season, protecting Stolarz doesn’t leave the Flyers with any goalie to expose in the draft. As a result, Hextall will need to either sign Mason, Neuvirth, or another goalie to a short term deal or trade for a goalie who is eligible to be exposed on the draft.

Ideally, the Flyers will sign either Mason or Neuvirth (preferably Mason) to a 1-year deal worth $4-5 million. This would expose them to the draft, and if they’re not selected, they would be the Flyers starter for one year while Stolarz gets a full year of backup duty in the NHL in 2017-18. Stolarz would truly get the feel of being in the NHL for a year, without the pressure of being the starter. He can learn under Mason before becoming, hopefully, the full-time starter in 2018-19. Mason would get one more chance to prove he is a capable starter in the NHL, with the hopes he can secure a long-term contract with another team in 2018.

As of now, I think Hextall’s protection decisions will be relatively straightforward. Obviously, all these protections could change if he makes some moves at the deadline, but for now he shouldn’t be too worried about forwards and defenseman. He will, however, have to do something at the goalie position at the deadline or after the season. It’s surely an interesting dilemma that will play itself out by the expansion draft.

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