#especially since rick has gotten to make this his second draft basically

[finemeal]

I know there are gonna be some book readers upset if they don’t know about this prior to the episode so, just so we’re all aware, here:

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Kucherov Hurt, Magnificent Marner and more (Feb 27)

  Was there a bigger loser of this year’s trade deadline than Vladislav Namestnikov? I don’t think so.

The biggest possibly opening is the one left by Namestnikov as the net-front presence on the Lightning’s top power play unit. There isn’t as much of an opening in the top-six considering Namestnikov fell out of favour of the past couple of months. Last night, we saw Chris Kunitz deployed in that net-front spot, but it’s worth noting that JT Miller hadn’t yet joined the team.

Miller, Kunitz and Ryan Callahan are all candidates here. As I suspect is Yanni Gourde, but I suppose we’ll wait and see.

None of that may matter if Nikita Kucherov’s injury proves serious. He left last night’s game with an upper-body injury and did not return. No word on his exact status, so keep an eye out for updates. The Lightning can survive a few weeks without him, but likely not a few playoff rounds. My fantasy team can survive neither.

*

Mitch Marner’s absurd run continues. He has 16 points in the last nine games, including a five-point night and a four-point night. Just like that he’s on pace for 67 points, just shy of the 70 that I forecasted. I held strong on Marner until January and then I started to have doubts. This run is all worth it. I hope he can maintain this through the fantasy playoffs. I also need him to get at least 65 points to hit as one of my few aggressive over bets this season. Until this week, it really didn’t feel like it was in play.

Nikita Zaitsev recorded his first point in 22 games. His fantasy value died a quick death when Morgan Rielly scooped his spot on the power play this season.

As expected, no fantasy relevance to be found in Tomas Plekanec. He skated 11:38 in his Leaf debut. PK time but not PP time.

*

Petr Mrazek moved to 3-0 as the Flyers starter without a shutout win over the Canadiens. He was matched until the shootout by Charlie Lindgren who had this miracle save in overtime:

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Charlie Lindgren with a ridiculous save in OT to keep the game going. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Habs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Habs</a> <a href="https://t.co/JnFkuIBGM2">pic.twitter.com/JnFkuIBGM2</a></p>— Jared Book (@jaredbook) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaredbook/status/968323942623711233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>{/source}

  Nolan Patrick’s four-game goal streak came to an end, but all the reasons that I like him are still in play. Second line minutes with Jakub Voracek, plus top PP time as the net-front man with Wayne Simmonds hurt.

Depending on how long Simmonds is out (we’re just past week one of a 2-3 -week injury) you may get some use out of Patrick in the fantasy playoffs, which is the dream.

*

Mark Letestu scored in his return to Columbus. He did indeed get into the mix on Columbus’ second power play unit, as well as the penalty kill. Could be some marginal value there, though doubtful. Also, we haven’t seen the Blue Jackets with Thomas Vanek in the lineup yet, so we cannot conclude that Letestu’s PP usage is permanent.

Three-point nights for Seth Jones and Cam Atkinson. Jones is officially winning the battle with Zach Werenski for #1 billing in Columbus. It’s the case on most teams, there can only be one truly star defenseman and Jones is doing it. It’s worth considering that Werenski has basically been a 35-40 -point guy since the bottom fell out on Columbus’ power play around Christmas 2016. He really only had a couple of months of elite offensive production. Jones’ track record seems longer. Still time for this to flip back in Werenski’s favour, but right now he’s losing. In your average one-year league Werenski isn’t even rosterable.

Atkinson is up to 12 points in 15 games since returning from injury. Still not sure I trust him, but he is starting to win me over. I especially like that he has 63 SOG in this span. Ludicrous shot volume!

*

What an exorbitant price Vegas paid for Tomas Tatar. I’d have figured that for such a haul they could have gotten a better non-rental, but perhaps not. The Canadiens seemed intent on getting roster talent in return for Max Pacioretty (pretty well a non-starter for a contender) and it’s tough to see the Golden Knights simultaneously negotiating trades with Ottawa for both Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman.

Apparently, Vegas went hard after Karlsson, and I wish they would have gotten it done. It’s tough to see them getting back in at the draft after having moved three picks in exchange for Tatar. They did a reasonable job of spreading the picks out across multiple years, but still lose some draft capital that they’ll need to fill out their organization.

I think they just really like the length of Tatar’s deal. With three years left, Tatar can provide middle-six scoring at market rate for three more seasons. He’ll essentially replace James Neal when the forward hits free agency this summer. Why pay Neal for his age 31-35 (or older) years when you can pay Tatar for his age 27-30 years?

There is opportunity cost in this, not only from the picks spent, but also that someone else may have taken their money. However, the free agent market isn’t teeming with great wing options. The best UFA wingers might be Neal and Perron. Other guys like JVR, Rick Nash or Patrick Maroon are similarly old. Evander Kane is the only young UFA winger with a strong track record, but I suspect if the Golden Knights were interested in him this season and long-term they’d have met Buffalo’s ask of a first-round pick.

*

Neal was back in the lineup after missing three games with an illness. He immediately got in on the action with an assist.

Shea Theodore is suffering an illness as well and is off the IR but still isn’t playing. He should be back shortly, although to what extent he has value is up in the air. He was scoreless in eight games before getting sick and his production is right in that tweener zone where you shouldn’t commit to him during injuries or cold streaks.

Luca Sbisa has been lapping up minutes with Theodore out (although not PP minutes). He has four points in five games since returning from injury. Can’t say I advise a pickup here, but the productivity is notable.

*

Word is out that the Penguins are looking to extend Patric Hornqvist for five years at $5.3 million per year. That is about 85% as terrible as the Lucic contract. We talked about how bad deals for players heading into their 30s can be with regard to Josh Bailey’s extension last week. Hornqvist is already 31 and showing serious signs of wear and tear. What’s another playoff run going to add on to that?

It cannot be understated how the bottom has fallen out on Hornqvist’s 5-on-5 production. He is down to just 1.19 points/60 at 5-on-5, which is fourth-line level production. Some of that is shooting percentage based. The entire Penguins roster has suffered across the board in this regard, but even factoring that in, this is a significant drop. Even with regression in terms of shooting percentages, Hornqvist is going down not up. It’s only going to get worse. At this level of production, he’s a power play specialist, which as this deadline showed, are a dime a dozen.

Hornqvist remains an elite net-front man, but it would be foolish to consider his contributions the reason for Pittsburgh’s power play success. Instead, maybe consider the superstars surrounding him as the engine for this. They already have a ready-made replacement for Hornqvist in Jake Guentzel. The power play doesn’t even suffer when Guentzel fills in when Hornqvist is out for maintenance!

This deal will serve to block Guentzel from reaching his fantasy potential and may even result in the Penguins failing to be able to afford Guentzel when his deal is up at the end of the next season. The Penguins already have $60 million in cap commitments for 2019-20, with just 11 players and one goalie under contract. Who knows where the cap will be by then, but they are looking at skating it thin once again. But don’t panic too much with Guentzel. He’s an RFA at that point, without arbitration rights.

To be fair, the Penguins had no cap space and figured out a way to get Derick Brassard onto their team. They’ve traded away prospects and first rounders for years and still managed to find guys like Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Conor Sheary, Zack Aston-Reese and Daniel Sprong. Perhaps they will still find the next wave of cheap wingers despite a lack of cap space and having traded their last three first-rounders as well as their upcoming one. Perhaps it doesn’t matter as they are only concerned with winning while they still can with Crosby and Malkin. I just don’t think a 32-year-old Hornqvist helps as much with that in year one of his five-year pact as you’d like.

I also think that there’s value in bringing in new blood to a championship run each year. The miles on Hornqvist by next playoff run will be absurd. How willing is he going to be to grind every day with a fat contract in his back pocket and potentially three rings on his fingers? What might a 27-year-old who hasn’t yet had his big pay day, or won it all offer? I don’t think these psychological factors are make or break, but if they improve performance a little bit then it’s worth caring about.

None of this particularly matters for fantasy owners. Hornqvist keeper league owners should be pumped. Guentzel keeper league owners should be a bit concerned.

*

Still no timeline for Mike Smith’s return from injury:

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brad Treliving is unable to put a date on the return of Mike Smith…"We just don't know"…But gave full support to Rittich and Gillies in the interim.</p>— John Shannon (@JSportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/JSportsnet/status/968237716998569984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2018</a></blockquote>

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>{/source}

  Does the fact that the Flames didn’t add a goaltender offer you any optimism? Or is this just further confirmation of their belief in the patchwork tandem of David Rittich and Jon Gillies? The Flames skaters should be good enough to withstand a few more weeks without Smith, but they haven’t exactly proven that yet this season. I like Gillies if for no other reason than he was good in their last game.

This Smith injury is one reason I was skeptical coming into the season. I loathe goalies in their 30’s with injury woes.

*

Dobber discussed some of St. Louis’ struggles yesterday, focusing mainly on the goaltending situation. Check out their top scorers since the start of January:

  Name

GP

Points

STEEN,ALEXANDER

22

17

TARASENKO,VLADIMIR

22

15

STASTNY,PAUL

22

15

SCHENN,BRAYDEN

22

14

PIETRANGELO,ALEX

22

9

PARAYKO,COLTON

22

9

DUNN,VINCE

17

8

BARBASHEV,IVAN

22

8

SCHWARTZ,JADEN

13

7

BERGLUND,PATRIK

22

7

SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

21

5

BRODZIAK,KYLE

22

5

THOMPSON,TAGE

15

4

BOUWMEESTER,JAY

21

4

  Remember when Schenn, Tarasenko, Schwartz and Pietrangelo were tilting fantasy leagues? Shit, should have sold high. Tarasenko remains relevant, but that might be it from that quartet. Schwartz has been up and down. Schenn saw the regression we were all calling for. Pietrangelo has been passed for power play time by Vince Dunn! I’m definitely guilty of hanging onto Pietrangelo too long. I tried to make the swap to Dougie Hamilton but couldn’t ultimately swing the buy low/sell high. I probably waited too long.

I don’t believe the exodus of Paul Stastny means that the Blues front office is packing it in. This is more an indication of how pragmatic a franchise the Blues are. Consider this:

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Doug Armstrong doesn't play around. Has traded Kevin Shattenkirk and Paul Stastny in consecutive seasons despite being a playoff team or at least close.</p>— Craig Custance (@CraigCustance) <a href="https://twitter.com/CraigCustance/status/968175653500702721?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2018</a></blockquote>

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>{/source}

  You can’t make decisions like that without ownership having an eye on the future. They appear to have a bumper crop on the way with Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, and Klim Kostin. Not to mention the young guys already on the team. They also may not be selling if they didn’t lose Robby Fabbri or Joel Edmundson to injuries. They are likely to lose their first-round pick (courtesy of the Brayden Schenn trade) unless it falls into the top 10, so recouping a first for Stastny makes sense.

By the way, how notable is it that Stastny waived his no-move to go to Winnipeg. He didn’t have to go anywhere but elected to join a division rival when given a chance. That trade certainly tells you where the belief in that locker room is at. It’ll be interesting to see how the players respond. They have enough talent to pull out of the tailspin and hang in the playoff race but it’s looking less likely.

*

If you’re curious why the Panthers didn’t really get into the mix yesterday, this has to be one good reason:

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tallon said A LOT of teams inquired about Henrik Borgstrom: “Everybody’s high on him, and we’re higher on him. He’s the real deal…. we’ll be a better team with him in the lineup long-term.”</p>— Jameson Olive (@JamesonCoop) <a href="https://twitter.com/JamesonCoop/status/968229968739217408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2018</a></blockquote>

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>{/source}

  It’s hard to envision where Borgstrom might slot into the Panthers’ lineup that would truly help fantasy owners. After all, they are loaded up the middle with Aleksander Barkov and Vincent Trocheck. Then again, a 1-2-3 punch down the middle could be unstoppable. This quote sure makes it sound like the college sophomore will be joining the Panthers some time in the near future. I’m guessing this fall. Read more about Borgstrom here.

*

Thanks for reading! You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-kucherov-hurt-magnificent-marner-and-more-feb-27/

[yahoo-shutdown-corner-blog]

2017 NFL Preview: Bills betting big on new coach Sean McDermott

Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per weekday in reverse order of our initial 2017 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 2, the day before the Hall of Fame Game kicks off the preseason.

Nobody should have to state out loud why it’s risky to give Sean McDermott so much power over the Buffalo Bills.

McDermott, hired from the Carolina Panthers to replace Rex Ryan, has never been a head coach before. That’s a big enough job. He has never run a front office either, but once general manager Doug Whaley was fired right after the draft, it was clear he had a major say in the personnel side too.

Brandon Beane was hired from the Panthers to be the official GM, and it’s hard to believe McDermott had nothing to do with hiring his old pal from Carolina. There’s some ambiguity on exactly how much power McDermott wields. A quote from owner Terry Pegula about how Beane is “gonna have the 53” could be seen as Beane having final say. Beane talked in generalities about every decision being a collaboration, but the Buffalo News reported the Bills’ setup will be similar to the Kansas City Chiefs’ structure the past few years. In Kansas City, recently fired GM John Dorsey did most of the personnel work but coach Andy Reid had the final say. It would make sense for McDermott to have similar power, considering how the Bills put McDermott front and center all offseason in a conspicuous “one voice” approach as the face of the franchise.

Maybe McDermott will be a great hire, and can handle all that has been given to him before his coaching debut. We shouldn’t base that on the hype from the first few months. How many head coaching hires aren’t lauded right away? The McDermott hire followed the same playbook. He’s a 180 from the boisterous Ryan, so that signals change. There has been the voluminous and predictable talk about changing the culture (always, changing the culture … seriously, if you haven’t heard, they want to change the culture there). When McDermott took out the pool table and video games from the Bills’ locker room, it was another sign of Improved Player Accountability (and, of culture change, obviously). There was the “earn the right to win” sticky catchphrase too. Change a detail here or there, but we’ve all seen this play out dozens of times with new NFL coaches. Heck, it was pretty much the same with Ryan two years ago.

The difference in this story might be how quickly Pegula fell head over heels for his new coach.

“I feel like Pegula would have hired McDermott to coach the Sabres too if he wanted the job,” Jay Skurski of the Buffalo News wrote. “It’s very clear the Bills’ new head coach has won over ownership.”

If you want to be optimistic, you figure that Pegula got around McDermott, recognized his brilliance and it’s clear to him McDermott is the man to lift the franchise to new heights. So he turned over the team to his new coach. And Pegula might be right. McDermott is well respected. And after an NFL-worst 17 straight years without a playoff berth, doing something different isn’t a bad thing.

The wagon is clearly hitched to McDermott, and if we’re all being honest, we have no idea if he can do the job(s) given to him. Buffalo can only hope.

McDermott takes over a team that was OK under Ryan, but never good enough. The problem is, the Bills probably need to fully rebuild, but it’s tough to go full New York Jets because the fan base is desperate to get back to the playoffs. So McDermott made some changes to be competitive this season and some that indicate there’s an eye on the future (and whatever the power structure really is now, it’s clear McDermott controlled this offseason before Whaley was fired).

The Bills are still a run-based team in a pass-first league. It’s a defense that underperformed under Ryan, who has always led good defenses, and lost its top cornerback Stephon Gilmore to the New England Patriots. The Bills have a shoddy set of pass catchers and a quarterback in Tyrod Taylor who they seem oddly cool about after bringing him back on a restructured contract. The Bills are seemingly always up against the salary cap too (a reason they’ve lost restricted free agents Chris Hogan and Mike Gillislee to the New England Patriots in consecutive years), which is embarrassing for a team with no playoff appearances since 1999 and a quarterback who is good but not a superstar. The constant cap problem is another mess that will need to be cleaned up.

Bills fans just want a winning team. It has been too long since Buffalo was truly relevant in the NFL. The hope of a revival now rides on McDermott’s shoulders, to an almost scary extent.

Sean McDermott was hired to be the Bills’ next coach. (AP)

The Bills didn’t make many huge signings, which isn’t a bad thing. They focused on finding players who are solid fits. Safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer were the biggest additions, and both are 26 years old and still have prime years left. The team doubled down on its run-heavy mentality by signing fullbacks Patrick DiMarco and Mike Tolbert. A lot of good players, some who got huge contracts, left in free agency: cornerback Stephon Gilmore, running back Mike Gillislee, receiver Robert Woods and linebacker Zach Brown. The draft seemed to go well though. The trade down with the Kansas City Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes deal was smart and the Bills ended up with cornerback Tre’Davious White, who was impressive in OTAs. Other draftees, like receiver Zay Jones, are expected to contribute right away. Grade: C-minus

Let’s just pretend the 2016 draft class is added onto this year’s draft class, because last year’s draftees didn’t do much. That could change. Pass rusher and 2016 first-round pick Shaq Lawson had shoulder surgery last offseason and that set him back. He played 10 games and had just two sacks. He should be a much better fit in Sean McDermott’s 4-3 scheme than Rex Ryan’s 3-4. Inside linebacker Reggie Ragland missed all season after tearing his ACL. If he wins a starting spot, he was an exciting prospect out of college, then running back Jonathan Williams should replace Mike Gillislee as LeSean McCoy’s backup. If everything goes well for them in year two, it’s a nice infusion of young talent.

If Sammy Watkins is still slowed from foot surgery in January, or gets hurt again, what else do the Bills have? Zay Jones might be a good receiver down the line, but it’s tough to depend on a rookie second-round pick. Andre Holmes? Philly Brown? Rod Streater? Charles Clay has been mostly a non-factor since signing a big deal two years ago. If Watkins – who has missed 11 games the past two seasons and was rarely effective when he played last year – isn’t right, things might get bad for the Bills’ passing game.

There has been this weird vibe this offseason as the Bills refuse to just say Tyrod Taylor is their starting quarterback. Now, that’s the time-honored and goofy “everyone earns a job” part of Changing The Culture, but nobody is going around saying Aaron Rodgers or even Carson Wentz has to earn a job. It’s a good reminder that this regime is inexperienced and will make some minor missteps like that. Taylor obviously will be the starter (for this year at least) but the problem is what happens if he gets hurt. T.J. Yates, rookie Nathan Peterman and especially Cardale Jones haven’t gotten positive reviews from the Buffalo media out of OTAs. Jones has been fourth string, and the 2016 draft pick might be in danger of getting cut. When you look at what’s behind Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins, you realize depth is not one of Buffalo’s strengths.

LeSean McCoy keeps playing at a high level, and he’s a critical part of Buffalo’s run-heavy offense. McCoy had 1,623 yards from scrimmage and 14 total touchdowns last season, and he’ll get even more touches with Gillislee off to New England. Jonathan Williams was an interesting late-round prospect last year, and he could be good in his second season, but he has 94 career yards. Uncertainty after McCoy and the Bills’ reliance on the run – we can assume that remains with the new staff that signed two fullbacks – means McCoy will have a huge workload at 29 years old.

Yahoo Sports’ Scott Pianowski: “If you like to play the value game at quarterback, Tyrod Taylor could be for you. Although he finished as the No. 8 fantasy QB in basic scoring last year, he’s barely inside the Top 20 at the position as the early ADPs settle in. There are some snags in Taylor’s game; despite Buffalo being the most run-heavy team in the league last year, Taylor led the league in sacks taken. But new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison has been successful with quarterback movement in the past, and perhaps Taylor will get a break with Sammy Watkins’s health, for once. Even if you don’t feel comfortable selecting Taylor as a no-doubt QB1, he has as much upside as any quarterback in the 13-20 range.”

[Fantasy Football is open! Sign up now]

In Lorenzo Alexander’s first 127 NFL games, he had nine sacks. Last season, at age 33 years old, he had 12.5 sacks. The only players with more last season were Vic Beasley and Von Miller. It’s incredibly rare to see a breakout like that, and it was a fantastic story. It’s also worth wondering if Alexander can come close to repeating that. Buffalo retained him with a modest two-year, $5.95 million deal in the offseason. If Alexander has another year or two at this level (and a scheme change is bound to affect his production), it would be great for the Bills defense.

IS THERE ANY CHANCE THE BILLS FINALLY BREAK THIS PLAYOFF DROUGHT?

Odds are the streak, which dates back to the Music City Miracle at the end of the 1999 season, probably won’t end this season. According to Warren Sharp’s superior strength of schedule, smartly based on Las Vegas over/under projections, the Bills have the third toughest schedule in the NFL. Sharp said after a date against the Jets in Week 1, the Bills have the NFL’s hardest schedule. Even if everything comes together, the road to a postseason berth is tough. The most plausible path to the playoffs is if Sean McDermott lifts the defense from being below average to somewhere near the top 10, the run game stays strong and Tyrod Taylor takes a step from efficient dual threat to a little more. All of those things could happen. Then the Bills just have to navigate that schedule.

The Bills are 24-24 the past three seasons. They haven’t been that far off. We’ve seen teams experience a positive bounce with a first-year coach before. The offense was fairly good and the defense held the Bills back in the Rex Ryan era, and Sean McDermott could fix the defense. It’s still hard to see Buffalo being a playoff team when we all know the New England Patriots are winning the division, but a team coming off 7-9 with a new coach should feel like it can compete for a wild-card spot.

The Bills had two players on NFL Network’s “Top 100 Players” list: Lorenzo Alexander and LeSean McCoy. Alexander is 34 coming off a crazy breakout season and McCoy will be 29 this season with almost 2,300 career touches. Even if you don’t take that list as gospel, it shows that this is a roster in need of some real high-end talent. And the depth is really poor for a team that has been in salary-cap hell. A first-year coach, with a lot of front-office responsibility, is taking over a roster that seems like it it’s doing a high-wire act. There are real reasons for concern.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Sean McDermott turns things around in Buffalo, because there are a lot of things to like about that hire. But even if he’s the one to finally lead the Bills back to the postseason, it won’t be this year. Too many things can go wrong. The Bills are a couple injuries away from having a “Week 4 of the preseason” type of offense. The schedule is really tough. McDermott might be the right hire, and it still doesn’t mean year one will be successful.

32. New York Jets 31. Cleveland Browns 30. San Francisco 49ers 29. Chicago Bears 28. Los Angeles Rams 27. Jacksonville Jaguars 26. Detroit Lions 25. Houston Texans

– – – – – – –

Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab