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[starbuck]

All of Armitage’s Looks: Rated

Well, this was inevitable, wasn’t it? Being someone who very readily admits to having Armitage’s entire wardrobe memorized (and who will not apologize for how weird that is), I feel that I’m the perfect person to make this post, although perhaps not the most objective...

So, without further ado, allow me to present to you: every single one of Armitage’s Looks in chronological order: Rated.

#1 - Enjoying The Birthday -- 11/10

Unlike most named characters, Armitage does not appear until episode 4 but oh what an entrance it is... Look at that smile!!!! Actually, take an extra good look because you’ll never see it again. 

Outfit-wise, this is just his normal steward uniform but I like those boots. Probably not unique to him but they’re very nice and remind me of a pair I own. 

Bonus points for being the second person on the tackle-pile, following Tozer. 

(You could accuse me of rating too high right off the bat, but look at his smiling face again and tell me I’m wrong.)

#2 - “Mr. Armitage, what do you report?” -- 8/10

And thus we are introduced to Armitage by name. Appropriately, he is partaking in his most consistent character-defining activity: protecting Tozer from harm (which, in this case, is the Not-Bear which has just come out of nowhere and ripped part of Heather’s skull off).

I’m gonna be honest: I don’t like how this style of coat looks when it’s fully buttoned-up. I think it’s awkward and boxy (see Gibson’s coat in the mutiny-planning scene at the beginning of ep 7 for a better idea of what I mean) and this is before Armitage figured out the belt trick that corrects the problem so I’m deducting points for the coat.

Luckily for him though, his hat is of my favorite variety in the show so I’m delighted to see it despite it just being his uniform. Also loving our first look at his blue sweater (peeking out beyond his coat-sleeves) and his gray gloves.

Further points added for this being the first of many scenes where he carries a gun, endlessly confusing the fandom at large about what the hell his job is. 

#3 - tfw You’re Responsible For This -- 5/10

So I’m just gonna come right out and say that this is one of my favorite images of him in the entire show but, just as Look #1 was rated higher due to the context of the scene despite the outfit itself being average, this one’s rating, in turn, must suffer. 

Things I love about this: the hat (obviously), the fact that the coat looks worlds better just because it’s slightly unbuttoned, the delicate dusting of snow, the way his face looks at this angle.

Things I don’t love about this: literally Everything Else.

Aiding in the racist kidnapping of an innocent woman and then not owning up to it twenty minutes after your introduction is not a good look, no matter how emotionally conflicted about it you are.

#4 - Who the Fuck is This Guy? -- 6/10

October 20th, 2019 was not the day that my obsession with Armitage began, but it was the day that I took a screenshot of this exact moment because I had no idea who this man was or why we were getting a close-up of him. It would take me two more months to figure his identity out.

But, to the point, not much to say here since it’s just his normal uniform again except that this is our first proper look at his hair which I absolutely adore. Also loving the little anchor buttons on his jacket - very cute!

Once again, points deducted for the unfortunate context.

#5 - Slops! -- 7/10

This look is noteworthy for a few reasons. First of all, we see his tan slops for the first time! Slops just sort of look horrible by default unfortunately but I’m enjoying the hat + slops combo here... it works for him. Secondly, Armitage disappears for the entirety of episode 5 so this is the first time we’ve seen the man since the lashing scene. I guess it was so traumatic to witness that he had to take a break. 

He has a gun again though, so things can’t be all bad.

#6 - Big Carnivale Hours -- 8/10

I have given up on trying to figure out what the hell is going on with the marines and their costume theme. Are they knights.... with crowns? That’s all I’ve been able to figure. Who’s idea was this? (Despite having no evidence, I blame Pilkington.) So what does that make Armitage? Is he a squire? Or a knight that just doesn’t have a crown like the others because they ran out of them? Whatever the case, he’s clearly a part of their theme despite not being a marine himself which I think is adorable regardless.

Speaking of adorable, let’s just forget everything that happens for the rest of this episode and appreciate how he’s hanging out with Tozer and Heather. Isn’t that nice? God I’m distressed.

Taking a look at the costume itself, you’ll see that it’s essentially a cut-up burlap sack and a sheet over his regular uniform but realism is not the goal here and the DIY vibe is actually quite nice imo.

#7 - Enter: The Belt -- 10/10

The belt has arrived on the scene! Note its success in not only making the coat itself more appealing but making the coat + slops combo work against all odds.

We really get it all here: belt, (unbuttoned) coat, hat, welsh wig, gloves, and slops! What more could I possibly ask for in an outfit? It’s both stylish and practical.

And plus, I like his attitude in this scene - optimistic-leaning realism about the dangers ahead. I can get behind that.

Overall, no complaints from me - this is a perfect look.

#8 - tfw You Allowed This -- 7/10

This is a Significant Look mostly because we see his hair again, for the first time since episode 4! It’s a bit longer and more unkempt but still maintains a pleasing shape overall. Honestly, I think it looks good this way and its a pity we didn’t get to see it more in the transition stages (assuming it was steadily growing out since ep 4 like most people’s). Additionally, there’s a bit of stubble going on here which I respect.

Rated lower than it might be simply because, as has been established, slops on their own are just kinda ugly. I don’t have a lot to work with here outfit-wise. His face is lovely but this screenshot is a sepia-toned nightmare.

A bonus point for his desperate “please explain this clearly illegal thing we’re doing in a way that makes sense to Little” glance at Tozer, who is already on it.

#9 - Agony -- 8/10

It took me awhile, even after becoming aware of who Armitage was, to appreciate how truly miserable he looks in this scene. And I mean, why wouldn’t he be miserable? Tozer, a man who Armitage risked his own life to drag to safety at Carnivale, is about to be executed for something that’s arguably just as much Armitage’s fault and there’s not a thing he can do about it.

So... that’s depressing.

But, looking at the outfit itself, we see that it’s pretty similar to some past Looks. In fact, it’s identical to what he was wearing when the Tuunbaq attacked Heather with the exception of the belt which is, of course, a new addition since then! And look at the difference a belt can make... You almost don’t notice that the coat is buttoned up all the way.

#10 - The Same Outfit But Now He’s Saving Tozer So Its Cooler -- 9/10

Y’all ever think about the fact that, when things went to shit, Armitage’s first instinct was to grab a gun, find Tozer, and rescue him? I mean you probably don’t but I do. Constantly. 

Obviously I love this part and the outfit is still solid (note how well the belt shows off his figure!) but it loses out on being a perfect 10/10 because he must have dropped his hat while picking up the gun so we never see it again. A necessary sacrifice but one that I mourn nonetheless. 

RIP Armitage’s cool hat, ??-1848.

#11 - The Blue Sweater -- 8/10

It’s warming up so that means we finally get a look at the lovely layers that have been hiding under Armitage’s coat. It’s important to me to bring special attention to the sweater because, although (as I’ve mentioned) he has it on all the way back in ep 4, this is one of only two scenes in the entire show where we get a proper look at it. 

Further, not only is he wearing the blue sweater, but he also has a blue vest on over it! Now, I’ll admit, these aren’t exactly complimentary shades of blue but it still works for me. 

Note also that the belt he had around his coat has been repurposed to aid in holding up his slops-pants over his normal pants (which are held up by the suspenders). Does this man’s resourcefulness ever cease?

As much as I’d love to give a higher rating for the blue sweater, I can’t ignore the new beard which is... it isn’t... it’s Not Great. I don’t have as much animosity towards it as I used to but I can’t pretend that I love it.

#12 - Let Us Fly These Deadly Waters! -- 9/10

I’m not sure why but I’ve always found this outfit very appealing. The tan slops-pants go nicely with the white shirt and blue vest. It’s a solid look - I’d wear this irl honestly. 

And bonus points for his trying to convince Tozer to leave Hickey, even though he was ultimately unsuccessful. 

(P.S. - yes, the title for this one is a Moby-Dick reference... Did you really think I would make it through this entire post without one?) 

...and now, last but not least, I present to you my absolute favorite Armitage Look™... all the other times I said some other outfit was my favorite, I was lying because what I am about to show you is truly the cream of the crop. Without further ado:

#13 - Kidnapping is Bad So At Least Look Good Doing It -- 12/10

Are y’all seeing this? Are you SEEING this????? It is episode fucking 10!! Everyone is dying!!! And yet here’s Armitage waltzing up in his best outfit of the entire show. What the fuck!!!!!!! 

Do I even need to explain why this is exceptional? Just look at it! Look at how the vest is buttoned up and tucked into his slops-pants! Look at the suspenders over top which match the slops-pants in color! Look at the gun and keyring that look like they were made to accessorize this outfit specifically! Heck, even his hair and beard look much better from this angle.

Now, I’m not trying to discount the fact that Armitage was absolutely miserable throughout this entire episode, and understandably so, but, even with that in mind, I can’t bring myself to rate this look any lower. It’s just That Perfect.

If one must inevitably die horribly in the arctic, this is an excellent outfit to die in.

__ 

Well, that’s that! Thank you all so much for reading and I hope you enjoyed this! I’m glad that my ridiculous opinions about Armitage’s wardrobe finally came in handy for something other than my own amusement. 

[im-fairly-whitty]

Whatever It Takes: Coco Villain!au

[Part 1: Trapped] [Part 2: Broken] [Part 3: Determined] [Part 4: Suspicion]

[Part 5: Decision] [Part 6: Bad History] [Part 7: Breaking Point]

[Part 8: Locked Door]

Part 9: Resolution

“Mijo, are you alright?”

Imelda would have hugged her grandson, but Héctor had been holding Miguel tight ever since Victoria had brought him back into the mansion.

“He’s completely locked up.” Héctor said, tears in his voice as he stroked Miguel’s hair. “Who knows what he’s been through in the last twenty-four hours. Dressed like he went dumpster diving, completely non-verbal, what did they do to him?”

Miguel was wide-eyed and frozen as he rested against Héctor’s shoulder, not responding at all to either of their touch as Imelda rubbed his back.

“He needs rest. He needs help.” Imelda said, already mentally flipping through her short list of physicians that could be trusted. “This is exactly the kind of thing we were trying to avoid with Enrique.”

“I could have found him sooner...if you’d let me.” Victoria said.

Imelda turned to see where her granddaughter was standing in the corner of the room, a lazily smug look on her face. She’d called them back to the mansion half an hour ago, telling them she’d found Miguel, of course bringing them flying home as quickly as they could manage.

“Thank you again, Victoria.” Imelda said, trying to sound as gracious as possible. “We’re extremely grateful for your help.”

“Hmmm.” Victoria said, smiling her sharp little smile, leaning back against the wall and looking like she had a secret she was laughing about to herself.

That.

That was exactly that kind of thing that Imelda hated about her granddaughter.

Imelda used to think that she loved all of her descendants equally, that she could unconditionally care about and adore all her family members, regardless of their weaknesses or struggles.

But not Victoria.

In life things had been fine, Vico had been a perfectly normal little girl, a little serious for her age, but in an endearing way, always wanting to be seen as a grown up. She and Héctor had been as thick as thieves, little Vico adored him for treating her like a little lady, and he loved her for soaking up every bit of attention he lavished on her.   

But that had all changed when Victoria had arrived in the Land of the Dead.

At first it had been easy to make allowances for her granddaughter’s behavior after the traumatic experience she’d been through, but as time went on Victoria’s psychotic behavior didn’t seem to get any better, she just got better at hiding it.

Imelda had trained herself her entire life to recognize threats, and seeing Victoria’s paranoid recklessness set off every alarm she had. But she couldn’t do anything about it since Héctor had taken her under his wing. And of course he had, she wouldn’t have expected otherwise, but it eternally put Imelda on edge to see how easily Victoria influenced her abuelito, how effortlessly she could tug at his volatile emotional side to go behind her back.

Because everything Victoria did was behind her back, Imelda still didn’t know why, perhaps Victoria could feel her unease. Imelda still hadn’t asked Héctor what exactly they’d done on their “outing” all those years ago, the outing that had made Victoria’s newly dead murderer vanish for good.

It wasn’t exactly a secret, since she’d asked not to know, but it was still one of the few things Héctor had never told her. And after surviving over a century of a marriage built on absolute honesty and cooperation, seeing anyone edge their way into the delicate clockwork of their marriage set Imelda terribly on edge.

“And where is Enrique?” Imelda asked, not taking her eyes of Victoria as the girl rocked back and forth on her heels.

“Somewhere.” Victoria said lightly, her smile getting a little wider.

“Victoria,” Imelda said, fighting a shiver. “where is Enrique?”

“You didn’t believe me.” Victoria said coolly. “I’ll tell Papá Héctor though.”

“Victoria, I swear, if you’ve done something-” Imelda started, hot anger flushing through her at the sheer flippancy.

“Melda, it’s alright.” Héctor said, putting a hand on her shoulder. “She’s helped us immensely tonight, we can afford to humor her. I’ll take care of Miguel and talk with Victoria, I’m sure she’s left Enrique somewhere secure and safe.”

There were a dozen things Imelda would have liked to say, but Héctor’s expression changed her mind. He looked so calm and controlled again, the very picture of a perfect patriarch with his grandson in his arms. Everything he hadn’t been over the twenty-four hours.

It stung her pride, but she should let him handle this. He needed the confidence boost.

“Alright.” She said, turning to him and briefly combing his hair back into place with her fingers. “I need you to get Enrique’s exact location so we can secure him as quickly as possible. He’s still family and in a very bad place emotionally right now, we can’t let him become more volatile. I’ll go get Miguel a fresh set of clothes and then come right back, alright?”

“Gracias, mi vida.” Héctor said, catching her hand and kissing it. “I’ll get everything sorted out on this end.”

“Good.” Imelda said.

She let him give her a quick kiss before she patted Miguel and then walked out of the room, being sure not to even look at Victoria as she left. This was still her house, and she was still in control.

The real problem was that Victoria had not only been right about Ruy, and had succeeded in safely retrieving Miguel, meaning that it was difficult to discount her, especially to Héctor. No doubt Victoria had left Enrique in a less than comfortable location, but hopefully she knew better than to harm him.

Although Victoria was known for having remarkably little tolerance for kidnappers...

Imelda pressed her thumb to the ridge above her eye against her oncoming stress headache as she walked down the side hallway, taking a shortcut to Miguel’s room instead of the usual main hall.

There was also the fact that Héctor had been manipulated by Victoria so easily tonight, that he’d willingly gone against her own explicit orders. He’d only told her when she’d confronted him about it...although he would have told he sooner if he’d found her first...right? He always fessed up eventually when he did something stupid.

If only Victoria hadn’t gotten involved. She was too much of a wild card to easily calculate for and it left Imelda feeling like she was the paranoid one.

A sound jerked her out of her thoughts as she walked, pulling her to an abrupt halt.

She waited to hear it again, half convinced she had imagined it. There was only silence in the long hallway.

She took another step, and heard the noise again.

The noise was pain.

Imelda zeroed in on the doorway to her left, briskly trying the knob, but the side room locked. It should be an empty spare room, perhaps with some storage, no reason for anything unusual to be in there, especially without her knowledge.

Every bit of her bristled as she distinctly heard the whimpering sob again, definitely coming from the other side of the door. The deepest part of herself was screaming that she needed to get to whatever was on the other side of this door, and now.

She thrust her hand into the deepest pocket of her dress, retrieving the ring of keys she carried with her everywhere. She flipped through several of the spare room keys, jamming them into the lock one after another, trying the knob more and more roughly each time. Why did this house have so many blasted keys anyway?

She tried the next key and the lock popped open with a click. She pushed the door open, stepping inside and flicking the lights on.

Every single fiber of her being seized up, and then roared with anger as she registered the sight of her youngest son lying curled up and broken on the ground. Ruy was sobbing like a child as he held his very clearly broken arm to his broken ribs.

“Ruy!” Imelda shrieked, rushing to him and dropping to her knees. “Ruy, mijo! What happened? Who did this?”

He cried out weakly as she tried to pull him up, his three, no, four broken ribs grating roughly against the floor. He was clearly in too much pain to sit up, so she rested his head in her lap, desperately trying to take stock of the disaster.

His left arm had a bone broken in two places, his ribs were snapped with the loose pieces on the ground. There was a small splintering crack above one of his eyes, marring the beautiful yellow and orange sunburst pattern across his forehead.

“Ruy, what happened?” she choked, hot anger triggering tears that rolled down her face as she frantically tried to think of what to do.

“I, I told her.” Ruy gasped through clenched teeth, his eyes fluttering open for a moment as she gently stroked his bangs out of his eyes. “I think I told her, but it was an accident!” his eyes locked on her, “Mamá, I told you,” he panted weakly, “I told you Papá had lost it.”

Imelda had seen her daughter slowly waste away and die of cancer. She’d seen her son drift away from the family never to be recovered. She’d seen a granddaughter lose her sanity, and a great great grandson lose his life, but somehow she’d never felt the kind of jagged pain she felt at that moment, the peculiar sensation of her soul tearing in two.

Héctor would never.

Héctor would never have let this happen to her child.

“Ruy, we have to get you a doctor.” Imelda said, her brain completely skipping a beat as she dove instead to what she could handle as her mind spun. “Can you move? Are your legs alright?”

“Don’t...” Ruy said, cringing as he pushed her hand away from his broken arm, “Don’t pretend you can fix it, just, just stop.”

“Be quiet.” she said, firmly but gently taking his broken arm and holding it so she could see it, despite his protests.

The radius bone was broken in two places, a chunk as long as her finger missing from the middle, leaving his hand hanging uselessly from the end of his arm with no second bone to anchor and move his wrist properly. The natural ends of his radius were undamaged, meaning that they held to their joints, but the broken chunk wouldn’t stay in place like the rest of his bones naturally did. The longer the completely exposed splintered ends were left, the more difficult it would be to fuse them back together properly to heal.

Who had been savage enough to inflict this kind of damage?

She already knew, Ruy had said “her,” but the knowledge still wouldn’t settle in Imelda’s brain as she looked at the chipped portion of her son’s arm lying on the floor.

“Ruy, I need you to hold still.” Imelda said, grabbing the hem of her skirt and tearing at the seam. The cloth was expensive, not hardy, meaning that ripping off two long, uneven strips was easier than she’d expected. “I’m going to set your arm so it doesn’t get more damaged.”

“Just leave it,” Ruy said, trying and failing to pull his arm away from her grip, “I have to go, I have to help them, she’s going to catch them!”

“Ruy.” Imelda snapped. She held his shoulders until he stopped his weak struggling, looking up at her with his teary brown eyes.

Lo siento Mamá, I didn’t mean to. I was following the music in my head and didn’t see the ditch!

Mijo, you’ve got to be more careful. You’re only ten, that’s too young to be breaking your leg like this. You’re just like your father, can’t see two feet in front of you if you have a song in your head.

Good! I want to be just like Papá.

Well lucky for you, I don’t think there’s anything we can do to stop that from happening. Now stop moving or you’re going to make it worse.

Imelda blinked back the unexpected tears that surfaced with the memory. It had been decades since her Ruy had been the bright-eyed and gap-toothed rascal that had followed his Papá everywhere he could.

How on earth had they ended up like this?

“We’ve already gotten Miguel and Enrique back.” she said gently, brushing his bangs back as she swallowed her own half lie, “They’re both safe. I’m very sorry that you were trying to help Enrique take Miguel away, but it’s over now. No more struggling, mijo. It’s time to stop.”

“Mamá.” Ruy’s good hand shook as he put it over one of hers, looking into her soul as he kept his searing eye contact with her. “Please. Don’t do this. What did Papá do to Miguel? That kid is more broken than anyone I’ve ever seen, you can’t think that he’s alright.”

“Miguel has a lot of struggles that we work hard to help him cope with.” Imelda said automatically, looking away, “I’m going to take your radius bone off while I set it, it’s going to be uncomfortable. I need you to relax.”

She and Ruy were about as well remembered as each other, meaning she knew how uncomfortable having a bone removed could be, but she was unprepared for his reflexive gasping yelp as she carefully pulled the two loose ends away.

It made her want to hurt someone very badly, as badly as they had hurt her baby.

“Victoria did this?” she asked, forcing her voice steady as she set the pieces of bone carefully on the fabric of her skirt, taking a long minute to stroke Ruy’s hair soothingly to calm him as his panting breath settled again.

“Si.” Ruy said, his eyes tightly shut. “She said Papá wanted information.”

“Your father would never have allowed this.” Imelda said, her tone much harsher than she’d meant.

But Ruy said nothing, his unsteady breathing his only reply. Which was somehow worse.

“Your Papá...” she picked up two pieces of his broken arm bone, her thoughts racing to try and finish her sentence.

Would never hurt you, but he’d struck Ruy just a few hours ago. Would never get carried away to do something dangerous, she knew that was a lie. Loves you...?

Would never...go behind her back?

She tried to keep her hands as steady as possible as she slowly edged the broken pieces back together, lining up the jagged break as exactly as she could. Ruy held still, but still jerked as the splinters of bone slid back together, making her heart ache.

The grim silence around the two of them thickened as she moved to the next piece, both of them all too aware of her unfinished phrase still hanging between them.

She slid the third piece of bone into place as cleanly as her trembling hands could allow, then tightly wrapped the entire bone in cloth from end to end, twice. It wasn’t the plaster a doctor would need to put over it to protect it, but it would keep the fragile broken ends from becoming more damaged.

Imelda gently took Ruy’s arm, holding it steady as she held the wrapped bone close enough to it for it to jump back into place without clattering painfully.

“Don’t let it hit anything.” Imelda said, her voice sounding hollow even to herself. “It’s only cloth. I’m going to get a doctor now to take care of the rest.”

“What are you going to tell them?” Ruy asked wearily, “That I fell down the stairs?”

Imelda was silent as she cradled his head in her lap, his eyes still closed as he gingerly held his arm, finally too worn out and broken to fight back anymore.

A dreadfully familiar icy feeling began to seep up her bones as her son twitched and coughed painfully.

This.

This was too far.

This was her boy.

No one was going to get away with hurting her boy like this.

She didn’t care what their reasons were.

“Was your father here when it happened?” she asked, her voice becoming terrifyingly crisp as her determination set in.

“No,” Ruy said, sounding utterly miserable and exhausted, his voice starting to fade at the edges,  “she dragged me in here as soon as I finished talking to you. Can...I see Caprice? Por favor?”

“I’ll bring her the moment I find her.” Imelda promised, trying not to gag at the thought of Victoria ripping him apart only yards away from her. She bent down to kiss his forehead. “I’m going to fetch a doctor, do not move. I’m going to take care of this.”

“Please stop this, all of this.” Ruy said, opening his eyes again as she carefully stood to go. She absolutely hated leaving him on the floor, but she couldn’t carry him herself and he didn’t look like he could move. “I don’t care what Papá’s told you, what you’re doing is wrong. You have to let Miguel and Enrique go.”

“Do not move.” Imelda instructed, pausing at the doorway, wishing desperately that she didn’t have to leave him...but that would mean calling for Héctor. “I’ll be right back.”

She stepped out of the room and carefully shut the door behind her.

She stared at the door, resting her shaking hands against the wood for a long moment as her thoughts raged.

She loved her husband. But she was all too aware of his weaknesses. Everything he did was powered by the need to protect those he loved, but at the expense of those he didn’t. His frustration with Ruy was hardly a secret, she more than anyone knew the depths of his anger towards their youngest son, and she would be lying if she pretended that he wouldn’t put Miguel first.

Héctor had gone out of line before. He’d hurt people before. He’d killed people without telling her first before.

And tonight, it seemed, he had finally gone too far.

Imelda took her key ring out of her pocket, selected the correct one, and quietly locked the door. Locking Ruy back inside, where he would be safe. She’d hoped it would never come to this, but it was time to lock everything down.

Ruy and Miguel would stay here, where she could protect them.

Victoria would have to be locked up, for good. Telling a half truth about Ruy’s injury would be enough to get her put away permanently, somewhere far away from the mansion where Imelda would never have to see her again. As long as they could arrange for her inevitable treacherous screaming to not be believed if she started spilling the darker family secrets. Non-negotiable solitary confinement should do.

Enrique, wherever he was, would have to be tracked down as quickly as possible. Héctor’s words, I’m sure she’s left Enrique somewhere secure and safe, now made her feel ill now. Of course he’d asked her to leave the room, it made too much sense, he knew she would be horrified at what he and Victoria were doing behind her back. To their own family.

And Héctor.

Imelda squeezed her eyes shut tight, forcefully tamping down the wild emotion trying to claw its way up and out of her.

He would have to be locked down as well.

She needed to get everyone and everything back under control, and now.

Imelda put the keys back in her pocket and turned to walk down the hallway, whistling loudly for Pepita.

But first, she was going to get a doctor for her son.

***

“Mija, you shouldn’t speak to your abuela like that.” Papá Héctor said, turning to Victoria as soon as Imelda shut the office door behind her.

“Well I don’t think she should speak to me like that.” Victoria said coolly.

Miguel was frozen, completely locked in his own head as he watched them, his face pressed against Papá’s shoulder.

“She’s your elder and you need to respect her.” Papá said, still holding him close in his skeletal arms, stroking his hair as he looked at Victoria. The hug felt different than when his...old Papá had held him. More like he might shatter. “You’ve been an incredible help Victoria, and now I need you to help us tie everything up, where did you leave Enrique?”

He didn’t want to remember...but if he tried to, he could remember way back when he hadn’t let Papá hold him. Back when he’d first come, after...after he’d died. As soon as he’d gotten strong enough to push Papá away he had, fighting and screaming at him when he got too close.

But it had gotten so hard after so long. It had been easier to give up and forget. To let Papá Héctor be Papá. To let him chase the bad memories away and go along quietly to keep his head from feeling like it was going to fall apart.

But now it was anyway.

“First tell me what we’re going to do with him.” Victoria asked, tilting her head to side. “Cement? Have Pepita chew him up? Tie him under the docks?”

Miguel felt Papá’s arms tighten around him, even as his own thoughts started to get hot and dizzy.

“Victoria this isn’t the time for those kinds of jokes,” Papá said, his voice getting stern, “we’re bringing Enrique back here and keeping him somewhere safe, no one is getting hurt.”

“Too late for that.” Victoria said.

“Victoria, if you’ve done anything to Enrique there are going to be serious consequences.”

“Enrique kidnapped Miguel, Papá Héctor, you can’t let him off so easily.” Victoria said, folding her arms.

“That is not your decision to make,” Papá said, “your Mamá Imelda is the one in charge here and she’s asked us to retrieve him. Now tell me where he is.”

Miguel wanted to die again as the two adults stared each other down, the tension becoming too much for him, but then Victoria rolled her eyes.

“He’s fine,” Victoria huffed, “I just tossed him in the cenote out back. He’s not going anywhere until I go get him.”

“Gracias,” Papá said, relaxing just a little, “then we need to go fish him out as quickly as possible, then this whole nightmare will finally be over.”

Miguel screwed his eyes shut, desperately pushing against the invisible barrier between his brain and his mouth, barely getting a whisper out.

“What was that?” Papá asked, immediately turning his attention to him, “Miguel, did you say something? You shouldn’t be talking mijo, you’ve been through so much, you need to rest.”

“What...about...Tio Ruy?” Miguel said quietly, burying his face against Papá’s jacket, trying to pretend no one else was there to try and get the words out easier.

Because he had to ask, Tio Ruy’s alebrije Caprice had been scared, she’d known something bad had happened.  

Papá stiffened. “He’s not coming anywhere near you ever again.” Papá said, holding him closer, as if thinking he needed to be reassured. “Rodrigo has never done anything worthwhile for this family.”

“I don’t know,” Victoria said lazily, “he was pretty helpful when I was asking him where Miguel was.”

“You talked to Rodrigo?” Papá snapped, all the warmth in his voice sapped away in an instant.

“Only for a bit,” Victoria said casually, brushing something off the back of her hand, “he came here to talk with Mamá Imelda and I had a quick chat with him afterward. How else would I have found Miguel so quickly?”

“How did you convince him to talk to you?” Papá said slowly. There was some kind of emotion in his voice that Miguel couldn’t quite figure out. But it sounded a lot like fear.

“I didn’t kill him again if that’s what you’re asking.” Victoria said dryly. “I just convinced him that it would be safer for everyone if Miguel was home. He’s fine.”

“You do not breathe a word of this to Imelda.” Papá said, “I did not give you permission to interact with Rodrigo. Mamá Imelda didn’t want you involved at all, and if she knew you did things without my permission, she’d think that-”

“That what, you’d lost control of me?” Victoria spat, her voice getting ugly, “I know she thinks I’m cracked, she’d lock me up too if she thought she could get away with it.”

“Victoria, no.” Papá said, his voice tired, “You know that’s not true, we would never do that. You’re just...unpredictable. Mamá Imelda just isn’t sure how to plan around unpredictability sometimes is all, we both still love you. But please, don’t tell her that you talked to Rodrigo, she’s already upset that I visited him without telling her first, I don’t want either of us to get in more trouble, claro?”

“Si. I can move him to a more secure lower room.” Victoria said.

“He’s still here?”

“Of course he’s still here,” Victoria hissed, “he helped to kidnap Miguel, you think I was going to let him go?”

“Victoria. Did you hurt him in any way?”

“What do you care, he’s just the family mistake, I’ve heard you say it enough times.”

“Victoria, what did you do?”

“He’s the one that took Miguel,” Victoria said, her hands in fists at her sides, “why isn’t anything I do ever good enough for you? You’re too soft, you say all these grand things and then you don’t have the stomach to follow through, and then everyone suffers!”

Miguel wanted to ask what had happened to Tio Ruy, he wanted to plead that they leave his real Papá alone, he wanted to yell and scream at Victoria for ruining everything. There was even a small, scary part of him that wanted to yell at Papá.

But he couldn’t, the words were all blocked up inside of him, and so the angry pressure came out of him in frustrated tears instead.

“You’re frightening Miguel,” Papá said harshly, “control yourself.”

“You’re not even going to do anything to Enrique, are you?” Victoria said, her voice rising, “You’re just going to lock him up in some comfortable room for the rest of his afterlife without punishing him at all, aren’t you? You said that we were going to stop him, you said we were going to make things safer!”

“Victoria, you are-”

But before he could finish, Victoria turned and left the room, violently slamming the door behind her.

Miguel wanted to demand that Papá put him down, he wanted to run after Victoria to stop her, he wanted to do a lot of things.

“Miguel, mijo, I need you to stay right here,” Papá said, quickly setting him on one of the couches in the study, pulling a blanket securely around him. It was impossible to ignore how scared he looked. “Everything is going to be alright, Mamá Imelda will be back soon with new clothes for you, please don’t tell her about Victoria. I need to...make sure your Tia Victoria calms down. I know you can’t do anything right now, but I’ll be back as soon as I can.”

And then he was gone. Leaving Miguel alone.

Miguel clutched the blanket around him as tightly as possible, his thoughts raging even louder than his frantically increasing breathing in the looming silence around him.

Papá was right, he couldn’t do anything.

Tio Ruy was in trouble, Tia Victoria had probably hurt him and he was locked up somewhere else in the house. His real Papá was at the bottom of a cenote, and they’d been so close to escaping and had been yanked back. Everything was getting worse and he couldn’t do anything to help.

Really, he wasn’t even sure which side was right anyway. Papá always did things to help, he helped to calm him when he had panic attacks, he kept him safe, he kept anyone from hurting him...but this time it felt wrong.

Tio Ruy hadn’t hurt him. Tio Ruy had been amazing, he’d helped him to feel...normal. Like he wasn’t broken, like he could do things. And his Papá, his real Papá, he hadn’t hurt him either.

Miguel put a hand in his hoodie pocket and pulled out the crumpled sheet of paper still stowed there. It was the first page he’d drawn, his attempt to show what it had felt like the moment he’d been cursed. Standing in the cool quiet of the family mausoleum, hefting the familiar weight of a guitar. He could still remember the electrifying energy that had coursed through him as he’d strummed the strings with a powerful sweep of his hand.

In that moment he’d been imagining all the music he’d go on to play, the fame he’d have, the magic he’d make as he strummed the guitar, as a hurricane of flashing marigold petals swirled around him like a living thing. He’d felt like he could do anything in that moment, he’d felt strong and powerful, and alive.

It had been so long since he’d let himself remember that moment, since he’d even remembered feeling that way.

Miguel hugged the drawing to his chest, trying to keep the scrap of memory alive in him, fighting to slow his breathing as he forced himself to consider something he hadn’t thought about in years.

What would the old Miguel do?

He closed his eyes tight, arms wrapped around his knees as he rocked back and forth, forcing himself to focus.

The old Miguel would help. He knew that much. The old Miguel would help Tio Ruy and Papá...not, not Papá Héctor. Papá Héctor wasn’t his real father. He knew that.

He could remember his real Papá hugging him only an hour ago, it had been a real hug, one that didn’t make him feel fragile, one that made him feel loved.

That was his real Papá.

Miguel swung his legs off the couch, making himself stand, still clutching the blanket and the drawing.

The old Miguel hadn’t trusted Papá. Papá Héctor that is. He’d wanted to get home to his parents, to the rest of his life. To, to-

Miguel closed his eyes, slowly crouching down to the floor as memories of collapsing against a locked door swept through him. He’d been trapped, locked up, kept from getting home, from getting back to his family.

But it wasn’t his fault. Papá Héctor said it had to happen, but Papá had said otherwise. Miguel had to believe that. And it wasn’t a secret anymore either, he didn’t have to be afraid of it anymore.

He was still afraid, very afraid, but he forced himself to stand anyway, slowly walking to the door of the study. One step at a time.

Things had seemed like they were going to be okay when he’d told Papá how he’d died, when they were going to go with Sebastian to the ferry, when Sebastian had said he was going to call the police. That had felt like it was going to be okay and better.

And maybe if he was fast...maybe this time he could get away.

Miguel paused with his hand on the door handle, overwhelmed by a sudden, suffocating certainty that the door would be locked. That running away never worked, that things would only get worse again, like they always did.

His breathing was fast and shallow, but he twisted the knob with a jerk, feeling dizzy when the door opened easily.

He looked out into the looming hallway, the open space feeling like it was crushing him down, but he pulled the blanket tighter around him, leaning against the doorway for support.

There were so many things he wanted to do, find his Papá, find Sebastian, find Caprice, leave the house, get to the ferry, be safe, be okay. But if he tried to think of all of those at once he would collapse.

He kept his breathing steady as he slowly walked into the hallway, one foot in front of the other.

For now he could do one thing at a time, and that would have to be okay, and right now that one thing was going to be finding Tio Ruy to make sure he got out safe too.

That was something he could do.

It was what the old Miguel would do.

[Read Chapter 10]

_______

As always, thanks to @slusheeduck, the co-creator of this au.

[junker-town]

Illinois vs. Loyola-Chicago should be March Madness’ best game of the first weekend

via Getty Images

The Illini are a powerhouse, and the Ramblers aren’t your typical No. 8 seed. Here’s what to expect in the round of 32 matchup.

The state of Illinois isn’t used to seeing two of its college basketball teams meeting in the men’s NCAA tournament. It had only happened twice in history entering this year, most recently in 1984 when DePaul knocked off Illinois State on its way to the Sweet 16. In 2021, the thought amounted to something of a nightmare scenario heading into Selection Sunday that became realized when the bracket was announced.

The Illinois Fighting Illini, fresh off their first Big Ten tournament championship since 2005, would anchor the Midwest region as the No. 1 seed. The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were listed one game below, taking a No. 8 seed into a matchup with Georgia Tech. If Loyola could get past the ACC tournament champion Yellow Jackets, it would be on a crash course to face the Illini in the round of 32.

Now it’s happening. After Illinois trounced Drexel, 78-49, and Loyola took out Georgia Tech, 71-60, in the opening round on Friday, the Illini and Ramblers are set to face off on Sunday at 12:10 pm. ET on CBS.

Illinois has rightfully been deemed one of the favorites to win the entire tournament, and will enter the game as a seven-point favorite in Vegas. Don’t let that spread fool you into discounting the Ramblers. Loyola went to the Final Four in 2018, and most of the numbers suggest this team is even stronger entering the tournament this year. There’s even a case to be made that the Ramblers are one of the more overqualified No. 8 seeds the field has seen in recent years.

Given the stakes on both sides, it doesn’t feel like a stretch to call this the biggest game in the history of college basketball in Illinois — or at least the biggest game since Loyola beat Illinois on its way to the 1963 national championship. Here’s what you need to know before the Ramblers and Illini face-off.

It’s a shame Illinois vs. Loyola is happening so early into March Madness

Maybe the NCAA just wanted to ensure that every TV between Rogers Park and Champaign would be tuned in to the same game. Maybe Loyola ending up as a No. 8 seed in the same region as the Illini happened all by chance. Whatever the reason, it counts as a bad break for both of these teams that they have to catch an opponent as strong as the other in the round of 32.

The beef here is with the Ramblers’ placement. Loyola entered the tournament as the No. 9 overall team in America in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, and placed No. 10 overall in the NET rankings, a tool created by the NCAA to help the Selection Committee seed the bracket. Somehow being favored by the NCAA’s own metric couldn’t help the Ramblers overcome the lack of quality opponents on their schedule after going 6-4 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams during the season and undefeated against everyone else. According to the full seed list, the committee doesn’t even think Loyola is the best No. 8 seed.

If you’re still not convinced that it’s a crime for this game to be happening in the round of 32, take it from Sister Jean:

“Probably nobody thinks it’s a fair bracket,” the 101-year-old nun from Loyola said. “It amazes me they put two Illinois schools against each other rather than support each other.”

In an alternate universe where Loyola gets Clemson’s No. 7 seed in the Midwest, a matchup between the Illini and Ramblers would have been a popular Elite Eight pick. Instead, the only thing the winner gets on Sunday is meeting with the winner of Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State in the Sweet 16, which means a possible date with the NBA’s future No. 1 overall draft pick Cade Cunningham.

Here’s how Illinois and Loyola matchup in the efficiency stats offered by KenPom. A few key takeaways:

Illinois wants to play fast. Increasing the tempo is always a good strategy for a favorite: the more possessions there are in a game, the more chances your talent advantage gets to show. Loyola, meanwhile, has been following the underdog’s formula for success all year: grind games to a halt and take away any quick-strike opportunities from the opponent.

Both of these teams have elite defenses. Loyola was ranked No. 1 overall entering the tournament before slipping a couple spots after their win against Georgia Tech. Illinois has also been a top-10 defense most of the year with a conservative drop scheme based around keeping everything in front of center Kofi Cockburn.

This likely won’t turn into a three-point fest. The Illini rank No. 320 out of 357 DI teams in three-point rate — the percentage of field goal attempts a team takes from three-point range. Loyola ranks only No. 173 in the same category. Instead of threes going up on every possession, the ones that do go up are going to feel like the difference between going home and staying in Indianapolis for another week.

How Illinois can beat Loyola

Gonzaga is the team that entered the NCAA tournament hoping to end the season as college basketball’s first undefeated national champion since Indiana in 1976, but there’s a case to be made that no team is hotter than the Illini right now.

Illinois has a pretty great setup. The Illini have a First Team All-American guard in Ayo Dosunmu to initiate the offense. They have perhaps the most hulking physical presence in the field at center in Cockburn. Around the two stars, there’s a group of players whose responsibilities fall into the 3-and-D mold (seniors Trent Frazier and Da’Monte Williams, junior Jacob Grandison, freshman Adam Miller), plus an electric freshman creator off the bench in Andre Curbelo.

The key for Illinois is always establishing Cockburn and keeping him out of foul trouble. The sophomore center has the sixth biggest diet of post-ups in college basketball, getting the ball on the block 7.7 times per game, which is roughly half of his possessions, per Synergy Sports. Cockburn averages one point per possession on post touches, which grades out as ‘excellent’ on Synergy and ranks in the 84th percentile in America. That Cockburn is unstoppable down low isn’t exactly breaking news after he waxed presumptive national player of the year Luka Garza in a Big Ten tournament matchup and put up double-figures in scoring in all but two games this year, but it’s worth noting none the less.

Illinois will want to get Dosunmu downhill attacking the basket in the pick-and-roll and on dribble handoffs. When that doesn’t work, it will let Curbelo try to create some magic as a ball handler and find the angles no one else can see.

It seems like a different player is stepping up as Illinois’ third scorer after Dosunmu and Cockburn every game, and they will need that trend to continue against the Ramblers.

How Loyola can beat Illinois

We already established that Loyola will want to slow the pace and limit possessions against a juggernaut like the Illini. Their best strategy might be attacking Cockburn defensively both in the post and in space, and seeing if that leads to some playmaking opportunities for Loyola’s own star center, Cameron Krutwig.

Krutwig doesn’t have the name recognition of Dosunmu and Cockburn, but he’s been one of the very best players in college hoops all year. The 6’9, 255-pound big man ranks No. 4 in KenPom’s Player of the Year standings (one spot behind Dosunmu), and entered the tournament top-10 in all-in-one stats like PER and BPM.

Krutwig is also a monster in the post, getting 43.5 percent of his possessions on the block and scoring in the 87th percentile on those opportunities. Unlike Cockburn who only has five assists all season, Krutwig is also an ultra-skilled passer. Look for Loyola to let him leverage his facilitating in the high-post and on the block to find cutters going to the basket and shooters dotting the three-point arc.

Fellow senior Lucas Williamson is worthy of co-star status. A tough 6’4 wing, Williamson won Missouri Valley Defensive Player of the Year this season and can turn up aggressive ball pressure when he wants to with an impressive 3.2 percent steal rate. Williamson will try to disrupt the Illini’s side-to-side ball movement and get out in transition for easy baskets, where he scores in the 88th percentile of America. In the halfcourt, look for Braden Norris and Keith Clemons to try to get loose for threes, and for reserve guard Marquise Kennedy to give Loyola some much needed dribble-penetration.

Krutwig and Williamson were both key contributors on Loyola’s Final Four team as freshmen. It’s fitting that they have their program back to the pinnacle with a shot to knock-off their heavily favored in-state rival as seniors.

Illinois vs. Loyola-Chicago time and TV channel

When: Sunday, March 21

Time: 12:10 p.m. ET or 11:10 a.m. CT for Illinois-based fans

TV: CBS

Read our features on Ayo Dosunmu and Cameron Krutwig

We interviewed both Dosunmu and Krutwig before the tournament. Check out our coverage here:

Ayo Dosunmu is the star Illini basketball always needed

Loyola-Chicago’s Cameron Krutwig on Final Four run, Sister Jean, and return to NCAA tournament

Also be sure to read The Champaign Room for continued coverage of the Illini, and Mid-Major Madness for coverage of Loyola.

Illinois vs. Loyola prediction in 2021 NCAA tournament

What’s not to love about this matchup? We have two top-10 teams in efficiency rankings with two of the best defenses in college basketball. We have two of the best big men in the sport staring each other down. We have the Morgan Park-grad Dosunmu as the Chicago-bred star who finally chose the Illini and made good on his promise. We have Whitney Young-grad Williamson who was ignored by high majors like the Illini but now gets the chance to upset them.

I already went on the record saying that if these two teams played a best-of-seven series, I’d take Illinois in six games. What does that mean for a head-to-head meeting in a single elimination tournament?

We’ll take Illinois to win the game, but Loyola to cover the seven-point spread.

Cockburn is the swing factor here. For as great as Krutwig is, Cockburn feels like college basketball’s biggest mismatch problem right now. There isn’t another player in America who can match his combination of size, strength, and finishing touch. If Loyola can get Cockburn in foul trouble, they’ll have a chance to pull the upset. Otherwise, we see the Illini sneaking by in a close game.

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Game Changer at the Fed

Game Changer at the Fed

The yield curve continues to steepen as the economy improves.  We continue to get our arms around the coronavirus testing the Fed's resolve to maintain its overly accommodative stance. Powell has repeatedly stated that the Fed has shifted its policy to respond after the fact rather than act pre-emptively anticipating change. The simple truth is that the Fed's view on inflation has been too high and wrong for so long and now believes that a near-term spike in inflation will only be transitory and then settle down to around the fed target of 2%. They will be letting the economy run hot. We agree!

Long-term inflation will stay contained due to global competitiveness, significant technological advancements boosting productivity, and the continued rise of disruptors everywhere, pressuring prices.

A steepening yield curve as an economy improves is the norm and good news. It is much better than having a flat or inverted yield curve here and negative rates abroad. The dilemma for the market is that we will not, nor the Fed, know that its policy shift responding after the fact was correct until well into the recovery, so expect more market volatility around all markets.  While we still believe that the overall market is undervalued, we remain focused on economically sensitive companies selling below intrinsic value where positive leverage will lead to earnings gains well above consensus, significant dividend hikes, large stock buybacks, and much higher ROI. We are also investing in areas where the government will be adding financial and regulatory support such as EV, 5/6G, green technology, infrastructure, agriculture, and bringing supply chains back to America.  We continue to avoid defensive companies that thrived during the pandemic, highfliers, long-duration assets as discount rates increase, lowering multiples/time frames, and all bonds.

Let's focus on investors' key areas: the virus, Fed and fiscal policy, and the economy.

News on the coronavirus continues to get better each week domestically, with problems remaining abroad, mainly in Europe, as spikes have been seen in Germany, Italy, and France.  In the U.S., more people have received at least one dose than tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 116 million doses have been given, and we are now averaging over 2.5 million doses per day. Supply and logistics continue to improve such that all Americans could be vaccinated by the end of May, creating herd immunity which, of course, means that opening can accelerate further, and the recovery can be sustainable. Unfortunately, the story in the EU is not nearly as good, with only 8.3% of the population having received one dose compared to 23% in the U.S. We are confident that the supply of vaccines will be in the billions by the late fall and that boosters will be available before 2022 if needed.

The Fed met last week and is maintaining its overly accommodative stance. Powell's follow-up news conference was very informative, where Powell stated unequivocally that "the fundamental change in our framework is that we're not going to act pre-emptively based on forecasts for the most part and we're going to wait to see actual data." The Fed remains focused on the high level of unemployment which will not fall back to 3.5% until the end of 2023, their forecast.  Inflation is expected to push above 2% this year to fall closer to the target in 2022 and 2023.  Powell finished by saying that "the Fed can run the economy hot to deliver a more inclusive recovery without suffering a sustained increase in prices." That says it all, and we will not know, nor will the Fed, whether its policy change was right for several more years. The Fed maintained its near-zero rate policy while continuing to buy $120 billion per month of various bonds. Could the Fed shift its buying to Operation Twist, focusing on buying longer-duration bonds suppressing longer rates? It can happen, but not for some time.

New stimulus checks went out last week on top of nearly $700 billion still not spent from the January $1 trillion stimulus program. Can you imagine all the excess liquidity already in the financial system with much more coming supported by the recent $1.9 trillion plan? On top of it, you have the government planning a multi-trillion demand-focused stimulus plan focused on infrastructure, green technology, increased wireless/data access, and strengthening our supply lines. Biden is concentrated on "Build Back Better" to strengthen our country to meet and beat the challenges ahead.  Putting the coronavirus in the rearview mirror will provide the most stimulus to the economy, which will be sustainable for years to come, supported by at least $5 trillion in additional stimulus that will flow into 2022 and even 2023. Now you can understand why the Fed increased its growth forecasts meaningfully for the next several years. And they will let the economy run hot. We continue to forecast a supercharged recovery extending well into 2023.

February's economic data has been hurt by the severe weather in many parts of the country. Shortages of semis and supply line issues have also penalized growth, but all of that will be transitory. For instance, retail sales fell 3% in February after increasing 7.6% in January; industrial production dropped 2.2% in February after increasing by 1.2% in December and January; capacity utilization fell to 73.8 in February, down from 75.5 in January; inventory rose 0.3% in January while sales increased 4.7% further reducing the I/S ratio to 1.26, a near-record low; unemployment claims rose to 770,000 last week, and Feb leading indicators increased to 110.5. We expect growth to pick up sequentially and quite dramatically as we move through the year well into 2022.

Investment Conclusions

Fed Chairman Powell's comments last week regarding shifting its policy to respond after the fact rather than act pre-emptively said it all. The Fed will do everything in its power to support a rapidly growing economy until unemployment falls below 3.5%, which won't happen until sometime in 2023, and inflation sustains above the Fed target of 2% for many months after an expected near-term spike. We expect long-term inflation to stay anchored around 2% for all the reasons stated earlier. The Fed just removed the Supplemental Leverage Ratio rule that permitted banks during the pandemic not to set aside capital against Treasuries and deposits against losses. While it may be a perceived negative, banks are so overcapitalized that we do not see any long-term impact from this change. The Fed intends on proposing new rules and changes to the so-called supplementary levels as bank reserves are so high. Removal of SLR is a clear indication that the Fed is very optimistic about the future of our economy and the financial strength of our banking system.

We expect the economy to be supercharged as we continue to put the virus in the rearview mirror, as we add trillions of additional stimulus hit the economy, pent up demand is filled, inventories are built. Capital spending accelerates supported by government programs and the need to bring the supply chain in critical areas back to the states.  Earnings growth for economically sensitive companies will be surprisingly strong as operating margins increase as corporations do more with less, use technology to boost productivity, simplify/shorten supply chains and have pricing power as utilization rates rise.

We remain optimistic that the market has 15+% upside+ dividends over the next 18 months, driven by earnings growth.  Our portfolios emphasize companies tied to the economy and areas mentioned above that the government will support rebuilding America to make it stronger and better: global capital goods/industrials/machinery, transportation, industrial/ag commodities, financial, technology, and many unique situations. We would continue to avoid defensive companies, highfliers, and bonds of all durations.

Our investment webinar will be held on Monday, March 22nd, at 8:30 am EST. You can join by entering https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser or dialing +646 558 8656 and entering the password 9179217852.

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prosperite LLC

Paixetprosperite1@gmail.com

917-951-4139

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[junker-town]

The Utah Jazz deserve respect as a championship contender

Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images

The Jazz have the best record in the NBA. This is how they’ve done it.

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in basketball. Utah won its 11th straight game on Friday night by knocking off the struggling Dallas Mavericks, 120-101. The Jazz aren’t just winning, they’re blowing teams out. Even without Donovan Mitchell, who missed his second straight game in concussion protocol, the Jazz ran Dallas off the floor from the opening tip, ending the first quarter with a 23-point lead. It was a wrap from there. This was the ninth time the Jazz have won by double-figures during the streak.

The win pushes Utah’s league-best record to 15-4 overall. It’s not a fluke. The Jazz are leading the NBA in point differential (+8.3) and rank No. 2 overall in net rating. They’re the only team in the NBA that currently sits top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

The Jazz ended last season in the bubble scoring only 78 points in their Game 7 loss to Denver Nuggets to complete a 3-1 collapse. This year, Utah is posting the best offensive rating in franchise history, slightly above the 1995 team that won 60 games behind John Stockton and Karl Malone. Jazz shooters are absolutely on fire from deep. Friday night’s win marked the seven time this year Utah has hit 20 three-pointers or more in a game.

The question now becomes: are the Jazz a championship contender? It feels likely the two teams in Los Angeles are going to enter the playoffs as the favorites regardless of what happens during the season. The good news for the Jazz is they would only have to see one of those teams on their path to the Finals if finish with the No. 1 seed.

What’s fueling Utah’s hot start? Let’s get into it.

The Jazz are fully embracing the three ball

A year ago, the Jazz led the NBA in three-point percentage, making 38 percent of their threes. Their offense was very good — finishing No. 9 in efficiency — but it wasn’t quite great despite having the most accurate shooting in the league.

The big change for the Jazz this year is they’ve ratcheted up how often they’re shooting from deep. Utah is No. 2 in the league in three-point rate this season, attempting a three on 47.7 percent of their field goal attempts. Utah is making 39.8 percent of those attempts, which is the second best three-point percentage in the league.

A year ago, the Jazz were No. 8 in three-point rate, taking a three on 41.4 percent of their possessions.

It might seem like minor change just looking at the numbers, but the Jazz’s ability to get up threes at a record rate is making all the difference. At least for now, those shots are usually falling.

Mike Conley is reviving his career

The Jazz traded two first round picks for Conley ahead of the 2019 draft to fix a point guard position that had remained a problem area for the franchise since it traded Deron Williams to the Nets in 2011. Conley was supposed to give the Jazz the steady hand they needed next to Donovan Mitchell to help the franchise take the next step in its quest to compete in the West. Instead, Conley struggled out of the gates as he adjusted to his new teammates and then dealt with a couple nagging injuries, including a lingering hamstring strain.

While Conley was better in the bubble, there was still concern that he could be declining at age-33. That certainly hasn’t looked like the case at the start of the new season. Conley has been incredible so far. If he maintains this level of play, it should go down as one of the best seasons of his career.

The all-in-one metrics love Conley this season. He’s leading the league in RAPTOR and RAPTOR WAR, a stat by FiveThirtyEight that measures impact on the floor. He’s also second in the league in estimated plus-minus behind Nikola Jokic.

The biggest difference for Conley has been embracing the three-point shot. He’s taking threes on 54.7 percent of his field goals this year compared to 45.1 percent of his field goals last season. He’s also raised his percentage from 37.5 percent to 41.8 percent on those shots. He’s done a great job of organizing Utah’s offense as a floor general, posting an assist rate over 30 percent for the fifth time in his career while doing well to limit his turnovers.

Conley has a +20.5 net rating, which is the by far the best on the team. It took him a year to find his groove after coming over from Memphis, but this is exactly the type of veteran point guard play Utah was hoping for.

The Jazz basically have eight starters

Utah is deep this year. While the Jazz didn’t make too many notable changes to the roster during the offseason, they did shore up one major problem area and still maintained their continuity.

At the start of the 2019-20202 season, Utah signed Bojan Bogdanovic to a $73 million deal in free agency. That meant the Jazz had to trade veteran big man Derrick Favors after spending almost his entire career with the team. Favors became a free agent this past offseason, and Utah jumped at the chance to bring him back.

When Favors started next to Rudy Gobert during his first stint with the team, it meant the Jazz had a major spacing issue. Now he backs up Gobert and gives Utah starter-level production off the bench, keeping their superstar defensive anchor fresh late in games and giving Jazz coach Quin Snyder the ability to deploy Gobert against bench units at times.

The Jazz also gave out a $52 million deal to Jordan Clarkson this offseason, and he’s responded with a career year. Clarkson is averaging a career-high in points and he’s doing it on the best scoring efficiency of his career. Add Joe Ingles to the bench, the veteran Aussie shooter who is used to starting for the Jazz, and Utah has a variety of different lineups they can play without much drop-off.

The Jazz are really good

Utah has had an enviable amount of continuity, both in terms of keeping this roster together and keeping players healthy during a global pandemic. The Jazz have a super sharp head coach in Snyder. They have one of the best defensive players of his generation in Gobert in the prime of his career, a young backcourt star in Mitchell, and a deep bench. They have balance on both ends of the court.

The Jazz don’t have multiple MVP candidates like the Lakers and Clippers. They know they can’t compete with the top-line talent LeBron James and Anthony Davis, or Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. What they’ve done instead is build the best team possible in every other way.

The Jazz will be discounted in the Western Conference playoff picture, because that’s what happens when there’s two super teams in LA. It’s a familiar position for Utah, and they don’t seem to care. The Jazz know they’re damn good. Thus far, it’s made them the best team to start the NBA’s new season.

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[torontotravelblog]

TORONTO ON A BUDGET IN SUMMER BY A TORONTONIAN

Toronto is an incredible, multicultural city that uses visitors social, natural as well as gastronomical experiences. It's feasible to discover this vibrant city on a tight budget with a couple of expert ideas thanks to Toronto indigenous Lauren from Global Locavore! Right here are 6 of her preferred summer tasks both on and off the beaten path. Stick around till the end recommendations concerning navigating!

1. THE CITY TRAVELER: SCENIC TOUR THE CITY BY BIKE

Exploring the city by bicycle is a perfect method to explore Toronto's numerous areas. Follow this plan for an economical trip via a few of my preferred areas.

Resident's itinerary: Start your journey at the Coxwell Opportunity Train in Greektown. Below you can find a Toronto Bike-Share stand where you can lease a bicycle for the day. Go out along Danforth Opportunity to appreciate the personality of the area. Transform south along Broadview Avenue as well as take your first quit at Riverdale East Park to obtain a caffeine hit at the local favourite-- Fowl Coffee. Continue on to Queen Street where you will turn west as well as head to the Distillery District. Here you'll locate art studios that present gorgeous works done by regional artists.

Grab a sandwich from Bricks Bakery for a budget-friendly lunch before heading back to Queen Street. Cycle throughout town and quit as soon as you reach the Queen West area for some fashionable window shopping.

Your last stop is Trinity Bellwoods Park. If you're dehydrated, get a craft beer from Trinity Bellwoods Brewery ($ 4-8/ bottle). While I can't formally excuse drinking them in the park, you'll see lots of residents doing so.

Expert's advice: This route does not follow roads with designated bike paths, nevertheless you can click to check out the dozens of bike courses around Toronto. The Bike Share program does not give safety helmets, so bring your own. This course remains mainly on bike lanes, nevertheless beware on Queen Road due to the traffic. Biking is not the same as cycling in particular European countries, nonetheless generally, vehicles respect bikes.

Budget pointers: To keep this bike rental on budget plan, you require to obtain a bit creative. (More info concerning the bike share program). The day pass consists of unrestricted half an hour rides, but after the first thirty minutes, it will cost you per thirty minutes. To prevent paying the extra charges, locate a bike stand every fifty percent hr and also exchange your bike, which resets the clock. Use these pit stops as a possibility to discover the locations above.

2. THE MULTICULTURAL: CHINATOWN, KENSINGTON MARKET & LITTLE ITALY

Resident's plan: Start your day in Chinatown for a breakfast of Dim Sum at Rol San, a neighborhood budget favourite. After that, stroll to Kensington Market, a diverse, fun area in the heart of the city, which shines on Pedestrian Sunday. Patronize its many clothing outlets, record shops and pre-owned shops prior to getting hold of a seat on an outdoor patio area with a beverage. Later on, stroll west along University Road to Little Italy where you can take pleasure in some gelato and excellent individuals viewing.

3. THE CREATIVE: VALUE ART ATTRACTIONS

With first-rate galleries, art galleries, and studios, Toronto is a remarkable place to take pleasure in a dynamic arts scene. Annual events consisting of TIFF (Toronto Film Celebration), North by Northeast (real-time music event), and also Edge (live theatre celebration) supply the best opportunity to discover up and also coming artists. Open year-round, the Royal Ontario Gallery (ROM) as well as the Art Gallery of Ontario (AGO) supply low-cost access to their basic galleries.

Local's itinerary: Spend the mid-day discovering downtown on foot. Make certain to check out Nathan Phillips Square, the Eaton's Centre and Queen's Park. Take a stroll with the College of Toronto School and also get hold of an affordable early dinner at one of the abundant food trucks. Delight in an economical evening of society at the AGO or ROM.

Insider's advice: NOW Publication is a remarkable, free weekly newspaper that notes all the latest events including music programs, art installments, motion pictures, theatre openings, and so much more. Choose it up from the paper boxes on practically every road.

Budget plan tips: Conserve by intending in advance by seeing on the days with discount admission. The ROM provides $10 admission on Fridays from 4:30 pm-8:30 pm as well as the AGO has cost-free entry on Wednesday evenings from 6-9pm. Reward: The COC uses a weekly cost-free performance collection on Tuesdays as well as Thursday from 12-1pm throughout a number of months of the year.

4. THE OUTDOORSY: HIGH PARK

Take pleasure in a break from the city with a walk through a metropolitan forest. High Park is a huge park situated in the west side of Toronto, perfect for a day in nature.

Resident's schedule: High Park is quickly accessed by its name metro station (High Park). Adhere to the smooth routes that crisscross the park to uncover a fish pond with several wild animals species as well as a public pool. There is also a zoo with deer as well as bison.

As soon as you have actually had your fill, leave the park by the south side, near the waterfront. Appreciate the views as you stroll down the car-free waterfront path to the Humber Bay Arch Bridge. Complete your stroll in the Roncesvalles area, where you'll discover lots of restaurants as well as coffee shops with patios.

Expert's guide: If checking out in the springtime, come on a weekday to experience the cherry blossoms in family member tranquility. If checking out in the summer, Shakespeare in the Park places on a nighttime play which is pay-what-you can.

Spending plan pointers: Entrance to the park as well as the Zoo is cost-free. One adult day pass to the pool is $3.50 and the storage lockers are free if you bring your very own lock. Having supper at one of the area Polish dining establishments in Roncesvalles can be cost-effective and extremely passionate. More info concerning where to consume in this historic neighborhood right here!

5. THE CLASSIC: EXCURSION TO THE TORONTO ISLANDS

The Toronto Islands are a collection of pretty, mini islands in Lake Ontario. These relaxing, car-free islands are easily available by a short ferryboat trip from downtown Toronto making for a charming, cost-effective outing.

Local's itinerary: From the ferry anchors, take the Ward Island ferry, which will certainly drop you at the eastern part of the island. Choose a walk along the pedestrian-friendly roads as well as admire the cottage-like residences before getting hold of an area on the coastline. Stroll along the boardwalk along the southerly coast.

Midway you will discover the busy and aptly named Centre Island. There are a variety of overpriced activities, including renting a bike, giving in food, and also amusement park rides. Instead, play a video game of FREE BYO (bring your own) frisbee golf on the dedicated course.

Later on, stroll west to Hanlan's Factor, a clothing optional beach loaded with friendly residents. It's the ideal location to have a drink and view the sundown over the city before taking the Hanlan's Factor ferry back midtown.

Expert's suggestions: Plan a full day see by showing up early as well as remaining until dark. Stay clear of the lines at the ferry by taking a trip at off-peak times and skip the line entirely by buying your ticket online ahead of time. The ferries leave from Jack Layton terminal and run routinely (every 15 minutes) in summer. Click for the daily timetable!

Spending plan suggestion: Barbecue! Food and beverages on the island are pricey, so bring your own food and also beverages from residence or the supermarket

6. THE SUSTAINABLE: SCENIC TOUR EVERGREEN BLOCK FUNCTIONS

Within the Don River Valley, you will find a stunning instance of urban renewal within an abandoned block manufacturing facility. The Evergreen Block Functions (EBW) is a sustainable tourism highlight and also enjoyable for every ages!

Citizen's travel plan: Go to EBW on a Saturday or Sunday. Take pleasure in a late morning meal of regional, organic produce at the Farmer's Market prior to paying attention to some wonderful live songs. There is a totally free walking tour at 2pm lead by knowledgeable overviews (even more information concerning the excursion). Drop by the kids's yard to learn about expanding food and also building with all-natural products. Finally, check out the yard market for environmentally friendly mementos.

Insider's guidance: Evergreen has actually a schedule full of cost-free occasions that deserve searching for when planning your check out. Take a self-guided walking in the park behind EBW to take pleasure in fish ponds filled with turtles, beavers and fish. Be sure to reach the lookout for a bird's-eye view of the river valley and Toronto.

Spending plan ideas: The EBW is entirely free, nonetheless prices at both the marketplace as well as the cafe can be high. To arrive, take the complimentary shuttle bus that leaves from Broadview Subway Station every half hr. If you drive, parking is pricey and also restricted.

TRANSPORTATION

Navigating Toronto can be completed by taxi, Uber, walking, cycling or taking transportation. One of the most affordable choice is taking the TTC. You can acquire (a minimum of) three tokens for an excellent cost. A day pass consists of endless traveling for someone on weekdays OR as much as 2 grownups and also 4 youngsters on weekend breaks. Keep in mind to constantly get a paper transfer as evidence of repayment to enable you to switch over in between train, bus and streetcars. (Even more regarding riding public transportation below.).

Reaching Toronto will likely include a stop at Union Station which links straight to the TTC. If you are showing up by means of Pearson Flight terminal, you can take the brand-new UP Express train to Union. Those taking flights from Billy Bishop Airport can take a shuttle from the island to Union. Both the VIA train as well as the local GO bus are located at Union Station.

A TTC bus (192) is readily available from Pearson Airport to Kipling Subway Terminal at the common TTC fare. However, the extra comfort, benefit, as well as speed is well worth the additional price on the Up Express Train.

INEXPENSIVE ACCOMODATION IN TORONTO.

The problem with being a local is that you stay in a city, which makes it hard to have experience staying in hostels as well as hostels, nevertheless Karen has stayed in a number of resorts around the city, from Yorkville to Downtown.

According to Booking.com, you'll pay concerning 60-70 per night for a low/mid range hotel although you can reserve a hostel bed for $29-$ 39 per evening.

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