#dak_prescott

[tsportsday]

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.Let’s dive into my Week 15 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.BINGEDALLAS COWBOYS at BUFFALO BILLSThe stakes couldn’t be higher on both sides. The Buffalo Bills need every win they can get down the stretch to make the playoffs after stumbling at the mid-point of the season. Their margin for error is at a stone zero.The Cowboys are in a race with the Eagles to win the NFC East and gained some ground after wiping the floor with their division rival last week. Not to mention, a quality win over Josh Allen and co. would go a long way toward cementing Dak Prescott’s MVP legacy.The name of the game for the Cowboys quarterback in this one will be to continue to elevate the non-CeeDee Lamb pass catchers. Prescott has hit Jake Ferguson in stride perfectly over the last month to set the aggressive tight end up for YAC chances. He pinned the ball perfectly on Michael Gallup for a vertical shot last week against the Eagles' weaker cover corners. Those are MVP types of moments and the Cowboys will need them this week.Biggest Storyline: Can the Bills keep pushing for a playoff spot? Every game is a must-win for the Bills. They’re already in playoff mode, as Josh Allen told the CBS broadcast last week. Buffalo should smell blood in the water in the AFC. Outside of the Ravens in the top seed and, ironically, the Browns, no one is playing their best football in that conference. If the Bills can get in the dance, they’ll be dangerous. They face a significant possible stumbling block in a red-hot Cowboys team this week but there are a few matchup advantages on their side.Stat you need to know: James Cook is second on the Bills with 169 receiving yards since Joe Brady took over and has been targeted on 36% of his routes.James Cook hasn't seen a boost in playing time since Joe Brady took over but his usage in the passing game has felt more intentional, which matters more to me. pic.twitter.com/VC7TDswmu7— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) December 14, 2023Player in a smash spot: Stefon Diggs. Despite a painfully slow stretch of late, this is the moment Diggs gets back on track. Cowboys CB1 Stephon Gilmore played quite well against A.J. Brown last week. I’d say they dueled to a draw and Brown still cleared 90 yards. He should cover Diggs more often in this game and we’ve seen Gilmore at this stage of his career struggle with quick-twitch route runners more than the physical perimeter receivers. On the other side, Daron Bland can struggle and bite on deceptive routes, which are Diggs’ specialty.BALTIMORE RAVENS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARSAs we enter this game, the trajectory of these two teams couldn’t be any more different.The Ravens had one of their best offensive performances against the Rams last week coming off their bye. That unit is clicking at the right time. The defense struggled against Sean McVay and co. but that’s more a credit to the head coach’s efforts and the play of his quarterback right now. Nothing I’ve seen from Jacksonville gives me confidence they can take advantage of this Baltimore stop unit.Biggest Storyline: Trevor Lawrence’s health. Lawrence had the sixth-highest turnover-worthy play percentage in Week 14, per Fantasy Points Data. The only guys higher: Drew Lock, C.J. Stroud, Easton Stick, Desmond Ridder and Bailey Zappe. That is not where you want to be.Lawrence was not put in a position to succeed last week coming off a brutal Monday injury. Much was made of the receivers’ miscommunication this week but Lawrence put the ball in harm’s way quite a bit. This entire passing game needs to be better if this team is going to make a run.Stat you need to know: Odell Beckham Jr. is fifth on the team in routes run since Week 10 but leads Baltimore in receiving yards. This “less is more” approach has worked with the veteran receiver recently. The Ravens are getting the best out of Beckham as they push for the playoffs by not overworking him and gassing his legs out. He’s an excellent fantasy start, albeit a volatile one, against a weaker Jaguars secondary.Player in a smash spot: Zay Flowers. The rookie leads the team in routes run with 144 since Week 10. It’s a wide gap between him and Isaiah Likely with 96. Flowers has been underutilized in the intermediate area of the field this season but we saw a correction in Week 14 cooking out of the Ravens’ bye.Something to Monitor: Zay Flowers UsageHe saw his average target distance increase by 50% in Week 14.And Zay earns 9 targets per game without Mark Andrews...If the downfield usage continues, we are looking at a league winner down the stretch...Data: @MBFantasyLife— SAL VETRI (@SalVetriDFS) December 13, 2023Communication issues were rife in the Jaguars secondary against Cleveland last week. This pass defense has been a problem all season. Flowers is going to continue on a tear as he finishes his rookie season.PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at SEATTLE SEAHAWKSQuarterback issues surround two NFC playoff teams from last season as they prepare to meet in a Monday Night Football flex affair.The Eagles simply aren’t getting the same play out of Jalen Hurts this season, particularly in the running game. Tush-push plays aside, there has been no attempt to integrate him in the designed run game of late and he isn’t scrambling at the same clip. Hurts is likely dealing with injuries but that dropoff in the dropback pass game and his impact on the ground has been a massive problem for the offense. It’s trickled down into the run game, making D’Andre Swift a difficult fantasy bet even in an ideal matchup this week.Meanwhile, as of now, we aren’t sure if Geno Smith can return for the Seahawks on Monday night or if we’ll get another Drew Lock game. Lock showed he’s a significant downgrade from Smith, even if he hasn’t been as good as last season, but can still get the ball to the playmakers. That’s good for fantasy, but not good enough for the Seahawks to make a come-from-behind playoff run.Biggest Storyline: Where are the Eagles at this point? At this stage, it seems pretty easy to say the Eagles were winning games at a rate above their skill level.Since 2000, there have been 106 teams with 10+ wins through Week 14 of the NFL season.Among that group, the 2023 Eagles rank 103rd with a point differential of +21.— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) December 11, 2023That doesn’t mean they're a bad team; far from it. This operation is still capable of making a run in the playoffs simply because they have great players at premium positions. However, for the time being, there does appear to be a tier break between Dallas and San Francisco down to Philadelphia.Stat you need to know: Zach Charbonnet led the Seattle backfield in carries with nine, while Kenneth Walker led the backfield with a 16% target share. That’s exactly the opposite of what you’d expect! It’s hard to feel great about either back heading into a matchup with a strong run-stop front as a home underdog (+3).Player in a smash spot: The Seahawks receivers. On the flip side, this is a week to chase the ceiling for the Seahawks' passing game. The Eagles' secondary has been abused by outside and slot receivers this season. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf (prior to ejection) are coming off good games and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the team in targets. Any or all of these guys could hit in Week 15.STREAMMINNESOTA VIKINGS at CINCINNATI BENGALSBiggest Storyline: The state of the Vikings offense. Minnesota is in a good bit of chaos for a team that currently occupies the sixth seed in the NFC Playoff picture. The Josh Dobbs fairytale is deep in the dirt at this point. Not only was Dobbs benched for Nick Mullens last week, but he’ll be the third quarterback behind Jaren Hall this week. Yikes!Mullens doesn’t exactly have a high ceiling but they’ll throw the ball more with him under center simply because he’s not the same scramble threat as Dobbs. That will boost the target projections for Justin Jefferson, who will return after missing most of last week with a chest injury. The Vikings' best hope down the stretch is for Mullens to be a high-end distributor and allow Jefferson to take over games while the defense creates havoc.Stat you need to know: Chase Brown and Joe Mixon have amassed 80 and 79 yards, respectively, on screen passes since Week 13. These two will be critical in beating Brian Flores’ heavy blitz concepts on defense. On the other side, Ty Chandler played a season-high 56% of the snaps in Week 14 and tied his season-high with 15 touches. He will draw the start with Alexander Mattison out and could be one of many backup running backs to bring fantasy managers a playoff win going against the Bengals' 26th-ranked rushing success rate defense.Player in a smash spot: T.J. Hockenson. Mullens targeted Hockenson on a whopping 31% of his passes after getting in the game last week, with a 100% completion rate. Now, of course, that was without Jefferson but Hockenson has a great matchup here anyway. We’ve talked often this year about the struggles the Bengals defense has experienced down the spine. The fact that they have allowed the most catches and yards to the tight end position is an excellent reflection of this issue.PITTSBURGH STEELERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTSBiggest Storyline: Can the Steelers right the ship? Since firing Matt Canada, the Steelers rank 10th in offensive success rate and 23rd in EPA per play. Some of the tweaks have worked but they’re still not making big plays in the pass game, the run game has now stumbled and the quarterback play has been abysmal. We have fans in the stands chanting for Mason Rudolph. Like, what are we doing?Straight up, we’re at a point where the players have to step up and make plays. The coaching is what it is. Mitchell Trubisky isn’t going to become someone else. These wide receivers and running backs need to play up to their potential. The receivers can’t teleport themselves the ball but still, there can be no half efforts or missed opportunities. That’s been an issue throughout this season.Stat you need to know:Why has Michael Pittman Jr. been a WR1 this season? He’s good at the game — not enough people recognized that coming into this season — and coaching matters. Remember this story next year when looking at receivers in similar situations ahead of fantasy drafts.Player in a smash spot: God help me, but it’s Zack Moss. Look, you just don’t find many running backs who play almost every snap and get workhorse-level touches. Moss has played on 89% of the Colts’ snaps the last two weeks and averaged 21.5 opportunities per contest. He actually had a rushing score called back due to a hold. If that was on the board, we’d be having a very different conversation. I’m trusting the volume and the process and calling for an RB1 output from Moss in Week 15 against a Steelers defense that just gave up a similar grind-it-out game to Ezekiel Elliott last week.DENVER BRONCOS at DETROIT LIONSBiggest Storyline: Jared Goff’s slump. We know who Goff is at this stage of his career so it should be no surprise he struggles this mightily under pressure. Per Pro Football Focus, Goff has a four-to-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season. He doesn’t create and his mind gets muddled when heat hits him. Since Week 11, Goff has been under pressure on 42.6% of his dropbacks, the ninth-highest rate among passers. The offensive line is supposed to be a strength of this team but injuries to Frank Ragnow and some inconsistencies have taken their toll. This has to get corrected down the stretch or the Lions offense we knew from early in the season will be a mere distant memory.Stat you need to know: The Broncos are the fourth-best defense in EPA per play allowed since Week 4. Ever since the Dolphins debacle, this unit has tightened up. Vance Joseph has these guys playing much more disciplined ball and attacking. Denver gets turnovers and plays solid coverage on the back end. It’s not a smooth landing spot for a struggling Goff.Player in a smash spot: The Lions’ running backs. Despite being 1-2 the last three weeks the Lions are still averaging 141 rushing yards per game. The Denver defensive turnaround has primarily been in the secondary where they’re hawking turnovers and clamping down in coverage. They can still be had on the ground. With Goff struggling, this looks like a prime spot for Detroit to put the ball in the hands of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery as much as possible.CHICAGO BEARS at CLEVELAND BROWNSBiggest Storyline: The Flacco-naissance. We’ve seen Cleveland check in with their two season-high dropbacks over the expectation rate the last two weeks per Fantasy Life Data: five and seven percent. That’s not a coincidence. Kevin Stefanski is a good offensive coach and having a steady veteran in place who still has a whip for an arm in Joe Flacco has allowed him to open up and express his playbook fully. Flacco isn’t doing anything crazy out there either — he’s just running the offense. That offense, despite all the other quarterbacks being unable to show it, is quite good and has many players we should want to start in fantasy. It’s a tough matchup this week but these guys have a better path to a ceiling with Flacco under center, just like Cleveland has a better path to a postseason run now than ever before this year.Stat you need to know: Chicago’s defense is sixth in EPA per play allowed and ninth in success rate since Week 7. There are a few things at play here. We know the Bears coaching staff suffered through some mysterious changes on defense earlier in the season. After a Week 6 loss to the Vikings, Matt Eberflus hired former Panthers defensive coordinator Phil Snow to the staff. Snow did some good things in Carolina but was swept out with Matt Rhule last season. He’s brought some life to Eberflus’ usually static defense and the whole unit got a jolt with Montez Sweat added at the deadline. This is just a good defense now, full-stop.Player in a smash spot: DJ Moore. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Browns run man coverage on 38% of their plays, fourth-most in the NFL. Moore and Fields have been lights-out working against man coverage this season.TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at GREEN BAY PACKERSBiggest Storyline: Can the Buccaneers truly gain some ground in the NFC South? The Saints and Falcons are in winnable spots this weekend so Tampa Bay cannot afford a slip as they currently hold the fourth seed in the NFC. Going on the road and beating a quality opponent shouldn’t be too much to ask, not that anything is easy in the NFC South. The Baker Mayfield-Mike Evans connection was quiet last week but that could come roaring back against a Packers defense dealing with Jaire Alexander’s absence. Rachaad White matches up extremely well against this toothless Green Bay run-stop crew.Stat you need to know: Jordan Love’s 15.7% off-target rate ranked 22nd among QBs last week, per Fantasy Points Data. While Week 14 wasn’t Love’s best showing and did officially end his recent hot streak, he wasn’t the only person to let the team down. Some youthful receiver mistakes cropped up again. The play-calling was a bit curious for, what I felt like, the first time all season. And remember, this offense is dealing with injuries. Love had some pretty brutal inaccurate misfires but progression isn’t linear and this is a week to get back on track.Players in a smash spot: Both passing games, perhaps? The Bucs allow the second-highest fantasy points per dropback in zone coverage, per Fantasy Points Data. Love and whichever receivers end up suiting up for this team amid a rash of injuries can take advantage of that secondary. Conversely, Green Bay’s defense was embarrassed in a big spot last week. Not an unfamiliar refrain with Joe Barry’s unit. This game could shoot over its 42-point projected total.NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI DOLPHINSBiggest Storyline: Tyreek Hill’s injury. The dynamic receiver was and is a legitimate MVP candidate, and his absence during patches of the Monday night game only made that clearer. He’s truly a transformative player who flips the math and opens up the entire unit. Without him, this suddenly becomes an ordinary offense. At some point, it would be nice if the Jaylen Waddle of 2022 could return and make some big plays in this passing game but so far, he’s had just a solid season. In addition to Hill, De'Von Achane is in danger of missing this game. The fragility of the Dolphins' ecosystem is beginning to unfortunately rear its head as we head down the stretch. Hopefully, they can get Hill healthy and right the ship.Stat you need to know: Tua Tagovailoa’s 13.2% sack rate on Monday Night Football was the highest of the season. We have harped on how the quarterback’s absence sank this team last season and will spend a ton of time talking about what losing Hill would mean to the offense but not enough attention has been paid to the line. Terron Armstead missing time last year was just as consequential as Tua’s absence and you just cannot count on the left tackle to be available at this stage. More injuries have struck that unit beyond Armstead this year and the Tennessee Titans worked them over last week. Walking into a matchup with the Jets defense this week is troubling. The -9.5 spread in favor of Miami looks fishy, at best.Players in a smash spot: Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall combined for 64% of the targets in Week 14. If Zach Wilson can play at the level he did for chunks of last week, these two guys can return to must-start fantasy status. The outlook is certainly better with Wilson than it was with Tim Boyle.KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTSBiggest Storyline: Continued focus on the Chiefs offense. After a postgame meltdown in the wake of yet another brutal Kadarius Toney mistake, we’re hyper-focused on this scoring unit. The receiver room is what is and it’s not changing. So many of Kansas City’s bets — Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency, Skyy Moore as a Round 2 pick or taking the plunge on the Toney reclamation project — have not worked out. The run game had its moments against Buffalo but is a bit less predictable and powerful without Isiah Pacheco. That’s an issue against a Patriots team that still stops the run quite well.Stat you need to know: Patrick Mahomes has had his second- and third-lowest fantasy point totals of the season in the last two weeks. His 4.7% touchdown rate is the lowest of his career; he averaged 6.5% from 2018 to 2022. The offense is still a good down-to-down unit (fifth in dropback success rate) but the problem lies in the lack of big plays and scoring chances slicing at Mahomes’ production. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice are not enough ... and no one is coming to save this unit.Player in a smash spot: Ezekiel Elliott. Per Fantasy Points Data, the Patriots' back was second among all players at the position in expected fantasy points. He took 91% of the snaps, handled 88% of the team carries and had a 28.6% target share.What a world we live in.Zeke has one of the best roles among any fantasy back locked in as long as Rhamondre Stevenson is out. He’s a plug-and-play option with this utilization. Party like it’s 2016.NEW YORK GIANTS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTSBiggest Storyline: The Vibes Bowl. No one had a better take on this matchup than NFL Network’s Gregg Rosenthal:Saints-Giants is the ultimate test of how much vibes matter— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) December 12, 2023If you watched the Giants' Monday night win over the Packers you know immaculate doesn’t even begin to describe the vibes around the team right now. The defense was causing havoc, Saquon Barkley was getting back to fantasy RB1 status and Wan’Dale Robinson was making plays; he's a nice possible 2024 sleeper right there. Beyond DeVito, Brian Daboll and co. have this team playing well even though the season slipped away.If you’ve watched any Saints game or paid attention to any of the rhetoric around the quarterback right now, you know those vibes are bad. Does any of this matter to the on-field product? We’ll find out. The Saints can keep themselves in the mix for the woeful NFC South divisional title. They should be able to beat a Giants team with less talent than them. I’m not writing that in pen.Stat you need to know: Tommy DeVito led all quarterbacks in QBR last week. If you’re just looking at his passing stats, remember that QBR rewards quarterbacks for their work on the ground and avoiding sacks. DeVito ripped off 10-71 as a rusher and took no sacks against the Packers. Beyond the fun story and all that, the Giants really did allow DeVito to let it rip last week. It was just about three games ago they weren’t even letting this guy throw the ball downfield.He’s not just a gimmick. He’s a guy cementing his career as a long-time backup quarterback, at a bare minimum, right before our eyes.Player in a smash spot: Rashid Shaheed. It sounds like the speedy receiver will make his return to the field this week. Just in time, as Chris Olave popped up with an ankle injury on Thursday’s injury report. Regardless, there’s already a massive opening for targets in the New Orleans' pass-catching corps. The Giants are 30th in sacks so far this season so perhaps Carr will have time to find Shaheed downfield.WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at LOS ANGELES RAMSBiggest Storyline: The Rams' playoff push. Sean McVay truly has done an excellent job in constructing this offense and remaking the overall Rams team in the wake of 2022’s disaster season. What was once an outside zone-heavy run game has been scrapped and rebuilt into a man-blocking duo run game that brings out the best in Kyren Williams. That’s just one big feather in McVay's 2023 cap. McVay said he returned to coaching not to chase more glory but to find joy in simply the act of teaching football. The fruits of that labor are seen on the field for this team and it would be a great story if it was rewarded with a playoff berth in the NFC.Stat you need to know: Sam Howell has one passing to four rushing touchdowns in the last three games. The Howell passing warhorse has hit a snag in the last month or so. His fantasy production has stayed afloat thanks to the rushing touchdowns. That makes me nervous if he’s a streaming option for managers in a Week 15 date against Aaron Donald and co.Players in a smash spot: Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Stafford leads the league with 10 TD passes over the last three weeks. All that positive regression we were waiting for when he played good ball earlier in the season has fully hit. This trio will face a Commanders’ defense that ranks dead last in EPA per dropback allowed. This could be the matchup that tilts Week 15 fantasy contests.SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at ARIZONA CARDINALSBiggest Storyline: Brock Purdy’s MVP pursuit. Dak Prescott is the current betting favorite to win MVP but the pure statistical case for Purdy is somewhat overwhelming, as Dalton Del Don lays out:This matchup against the Cardinals doesn’t set up as much of a resume-building spot considering the 49ers are a 12.5-point road favorite. However, Purdy can continue to further the stats-based argument by dropping a hammer on these NFC West rivals and helping to cement the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Also, he can pad the resume so that if he does enjoy a signature win down the line — against the Ravens on Christmas, for example — he’ll be in prime position to further his case. Like it or not, that’s how this award works.Stat you need to know: Trey McBride ranks seventh in target share since Week 8 behind only: Michael Pittman Jr., CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson and just one ahead of Tyreek Hill. We’re seeing something even better than a breakout for McBride. This is an ascension to rarified air for tight ends. Even if a tougher spot, he seems like a top-five tight end on the board.Player in a smash spot: Deebo Samuel. Everyone on this 49ers offense is in a smash spot every week, but this is setting up nicely for another Deebo Samuel game. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Cardinals play two-high coverage on 64% of their snaps, the second-highest rate in the NFL. With the middle of the field open, Samuel should have plenty of space to rip up the defense on crossing routes and get rolling for YAC. On the flip side, if you’re desperate, the 49ers' single-high coverage could open up some big plays for outside receivers like Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson, if they play.SKIPHOUSTON TEXANS at TENNESSEE TITANSOne reason to maybe watch: Tracking Will Levis’ development has been enjoyable. The rookie is fourth among quarterbacks with 100-plus passes in deep-throw rate since Week 11. The operation isn’t always perfectly smooth but Levis is not shy about pushing the ball. I think it’s encouraging that DeAndre Hopkins has gone to bat for Levis publicly.Hopkins is right, he’s played with a lot [of bad quarterbacks] over the years. We’re still in the discovery phase as it relates to the rookie passer’s long-term outlook but he’s fun and could earn a path to be the guy for Mike Vrabel and co. next season.Stat you need to know: Texans' routes run in Week 14: Robert Woods (25), Noah Brown (24), Brevin Jordan (24), Xavier Hutchinson (22), John Metchie (15), Devin Singletary (12), Dare Ogunbowale (11) and Nico Collins left with a calf re-injury after one route. How the Texans offense looked in Week 14 served as a great reminder of how good Collins and Tank Dell have been this season. C.J. Stroud’s supporting cast goes from really good with those two down to near Bryce Young levels with the injuries. Stroud may well end up missing this game with a concussion. If he does end up going out there, it’s a tough spot against a Titans defense that was hawking Tua Tagovailoa in the pocket last week. Should we get Davis Mills … well, forget it.ATLANTA FALCONS at CAROLINA PANTHERSOne reason to maybe watch: Bijan Robinson eruption spot. The rookie back should have enjoyed a much better day last week but Desmond Ridder missed him in simply inexcusable fashion on a wide-open goal-line flat route. Robinson has earned 22, 23 and 17 opportunities over the Falcons last three games and now he draws a matchup with a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA per rushing and rushing success rate allowed. Arthur Smith is likely ready to saddle up his run game for a big day after the Falcons had a 2% dropback over expectation rate in Week 14, the second-highest of the season per Fantasy Life Utilization Data.Stat you need to know: Jonathan Mingo ranks 10th in the NFL with 255 air yards the last two weeks. The problem is, Bryce Young is completing 41.8% of his passes in this span. The Panthers have been more intentional about getting their rookie wideout in favorable alignments and deployed on better routes for his skill set. But there are still a lot of prayer yards in those air yards.

[correctsuccess]

Prescott ‘last man standing;’ Dak’s brother: ‘Let that sink in’ The mud continues to be settling after the weekend’s huge quarterback commerce within the NFL. And because the world begins to regulate to the thought of Jared Goff sporting Honolulu blue within the Motor Metropolis and Matthew Stafford sporting… no matter these dingy-white messes with the foolish chest nametags are in Los Angeles, an interesting facet story is rising that focuses on the Cowboy... #2016_draft #2021_season #dak_prescott #dallas_cowboys #franchise_tag #jared_goff #quarterbacks #tad_prescott

[quoteslib]

#dak_prescott

[tsportsday]

NFL award races: Dak Prescott, Tyreek Hill, Micah Parsons in line for hardware Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement

[tsportsday]

The Buffalo Bills feel like a team that is either going to miss the playoffs or make a Super Bowl.Everyone knows the Bills' story by now. They're a talented team that analytics identify as a top five team, but they dropped many close games and they are far from a lock to make the playoffs. Buffalo is less than a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs, according to DVOA. A lot of that is due to some difficult remaining games.One of the NFL's best teams is going to have to beat another top team or two to make the playoffs in a tight AFC wild-card race (though the Miami Dolphins' Week 14 loss also opened up the possibility of stealing the division). And coming off a win over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills have to face the Dallas Cowboys.The Bills can't complain about this gauntlet of tough games. They just need to figure out ways to win.The San Francisco 49ers might be the hottest team in the NFL, but the Cowboys aren't far behind. Dallas is coming off an impressive win over the Philadelphia Eagles, their seventh win in eight games. And it's not like the Bills will catch a Cowboys team that is letting down; Dallas is tied for first place in the NFC East and needs to keep winning to have a shot to take the division title from Philly.,If the 7-6 Bills want to make the playoffs, they probably need to get to 10 wins to feel comfortable. That means beating the Cowboys this week or the Dolphins in the finale, at very least. And then not stumbling against the Patriots or Chargers.It is telling that the Bills are 2-point favorite at BetMGM over the Cowboys, who might be the second-best team in the NFL. The Bills are very good as well, they just don't have the record to match. It's hard to go against the Cowboys considering how well they're playing. Dak Prescott might be the MVP of the league. The defense makes big plays just about every week. The Bills are coming off intense back-to-back games against the Eagles and Chiefs, and it's not easy to stay up week after week.Still, I'll go with the Bills. They know what's at stake. Their home crowd will too. It should be a fascinating game. And if Buffalo wins, they'll be a step closer to saving their season and making the playoffs.Here are the picks for the Week 15 games, with odds from BetMGM:Raiders (-3) over ChargersThis week's Thursday game will look more like it's from the preseason. Easton Stick replaces Justin Herbert for the Chargers. The Raiders are coming off a 3-0 loss. I don't mind taking teams in their first game with a backup quarterback because often they rally around the backup and play well. But the Chargers could be a team that realizes their disappointing season is beyond repair and goes in the tank the rest of the way.Bengals (-3) over VikingsThere are three Saturday games and all of them are compelling. That makes up for Thursday night. I'm buying the Bengals. Jake Browning looks good. If you're expecting him to crash to earth, it might not happen. The Vikings are going to Nick Mullens as their fourth starting quarterback this season, and I simply think the Bengals are in much better shape going forward.Both wild-card contenders have flaws. It's hard to have much faith in the Steelers after watching their last two games. But their season is on the line, and they should be helped by a little extra rest and motivation after being embarrassed in losses to the Cardinals and Patriots.Broncos (+4) over LionsIt has been a long time since we've seen the Lions play well. Their last four games have looked like a step back. Meanwhile, the Broncos' story stays the same: I'm not sure how they entirely turned their season around after a 1-5 start, but it is undeniable.Browns (-3) over BearsThe Bears are playing well. But I think the Browns have a lot of energy with Joe Flacco giving them some much-needed stability at quarterback. And the Cleveland defense is very good.Buccaneers (+3.5) over PackersBoth teams are 6-7 and the loser is going to be in some trouble in the playoff race. The Packers had been playing well before a bad loss on Monday night against the Giants. That Giants game was a reminder that Green Bay has been playing better but still is mediocre at best. The Buccaneers battle every week, even on the road. It'll be close.Texans (+3) over TitansI don't assume C.J. Stroud will play on Sunday. He's in the concussion protocol and even if he's cleared, the Texans could hold him out a week. But even though the Titans had a huge win at Miami on Sunday night, they're not very good. The Texans will rally around Davis Mills if he has to play. I think Houston will be fine even without their starting quarterback.Jets (+8.5) over DolphinsThe Jets have to feel a little rejuvenated after seeing Zach Wilson throw for more than 300 yards last week. Maybe they won't be totally inept on offense the rest of the way. The Dolphins could rebound off of a horrible loss to the Titans and win big, but I'm back to taking the Jets when they're getting a lot of points. Hopefully Wilson doesn't revert to being what he's been most of his career.Chiefs (-8) over PatriotsI don't generally take the Chiefs because their spreads are inflated. This one is inflated a bit. But after a frustrating loss to the Bills, I can see Kansas City taking it out on a severely undermanned Patriots team. There's also the possibility that New England doesn't score in double digits.Giants (+6) over SaintsYou can't get caught up too much in narratives when picking games, but it's hard to deny this Tommy DeVito story is pretty cool. And the thing is, he's really playing well. After how bad he looked in his first two games, that's one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season. The Saints are simply not a team I'll trust as a favorite of more than a field goal.Falcons (-3) over PanthersYes, feel free to do a double take on this line. The Panthers have played in 13 games and either won or lost by fewer than three points exactly once. That includes a 24-10 loss to the Falcons all the way back in Week 1. I don't like the Falcons and don't particularly want to back them as a road favorite, but what have the Panthers done to justify being just a 3-point underdog?Rams (-6.5) over CommandersThe Commanders defense is horrible. In their last six games they've given up 38, 17 (against a terrible Patriots team), 29, 31, 45 and 45 points. Washington can move the ball, but even that has faded the past few games. The only thing that worries me is every single bettor who likes to play teasers is going to include the Rams this week.49ers (-12.5) over CardinalsYou're not going to win much taking a lot of double-digit road NFL favorites. But the 49ers are a wagon right now. They are the best team in football and it's not close. I don't think Arizona can keep it close.We make the mistake of thinking that a player is healthy just because he's playing. I credit Trevor Lawrence for his toughness playing through a high ankle sprain last week, but he missed a lot of throws and that is not a two-week injury. He might not be right until very late in the season. And the Ravens will pressure him often and test his bad ankle. Normally I'd be happy to take Jacksonville as a home underdog but I didn't love what I saw from Lawrence last week.Seahawks (+4) over EaglesHow good are the Eagles? I think it's fair to answer that we don't know. I'd really like a desperate Seahawks team if we knew Geno Smith was playing and somewhat healthy after missing last week with a groin injury. But we don't know that as of yet, and it's scary to take Drew Lock in this spot. But he did play well and the Seahawks can keep it close no matter who is at quarterback.Last week: 9-5-1Season to date: 105-97-6

[tsportsday]

NFL awards races: Dak Prescott, Tyreek Hill, Micah Parsons in line for hardware Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement

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(Amber Matsumoto/Yahoo Sports)Any given Sunday (or Monday, or soon, Saturday, or Black Friday …)!That’s what’s great about the NFL. Teams that recently took one on the chin can fire back the following week and completely derail a contender’s plans. Lost your starting quarterback? Ah, no worries, let’s rip off two straight against playoff teams.It’s how every week can be in every season, especially in 2023, the year of the defense, the punt and the quarterbacks (emphasis on plural).Six division leaders lost in Week 14. With that being the case, I am going to bring out my patented Worry-O-Meter and how I rate the level of concern I feel for each team’s contender chances (you’ll notice I was hungry when I wrote this article, which will be apparent once you reach each team’s rating). I am going to skip over the Falcons and the NFC South. I'll deal with that division once it starts to make itself presentable.For the remaining five potential division leaders, let’s take a look and see what the Meter says:I know about the Chiefs' wide receivers. You know about the Chiefs' wide receivers. They are starting to get rattled off on social media and talking head shows like Santa’s reindeer: “there’s Valdes-Scantling and Toney and Moore and Blitzen.”Kadarius Toney’s offensive offsides penalty has gotten plenty of the shine. But the Chiefs' young wide receivers room has had numerous instances every week with misaligning pre-snap or lacking detail on their assignment post-snap.Then there are the drops. Oh, the drops.The Chiefs have lost 25.2 expected points this year from drops from their pass catchers. That ranks fourth in the NFL. If you narrowed it to just drops by Chiefs wide receivers (which 15 of their 23 team drops have been by), the Chiefs have lost 21.9 expected points from drops, which would rank first in the NFL. This offense is also tied for first with the Seattle Seahawks in penalties per snap (6.2%).Even with the drops and inconsistent play from their young WRs, it’s not like this offense has been bad. In fact, it’s still good. There are flashes of high-end play and drives that remind you, “oh, ya, it’s Mahomes and the Chiefs.” They’re eighth in underlying metrics like offensive success rate and EPA per play, and fourth in offensive DVOA. Their passing game does most of the work, ranking top five in the same categories.The Chiefs' run game, something that has been a top-10 unit in efficiency since Mahomes has been KC's starter but has severely struggled most of the year, has finally found its footing post-bye week. Chiefs running backs averaged 3.6 yards per run and had a 29.1% success rate from Weeks 1-9, ranking 26th and 25th respectively. After their Week 10 bye, Chiefs running backs are averaging 4.5 yards per run and have a 37.9% success rate on early downs. Good for 10th and eighth in the NFL over that time span.Something the Chiefs have shied away from post-bye week that they should lean back into is their use of 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends and one wide receiver). It’s a personnel grouping that they leaned into over the past few seasons, to great success, as it forces defenses to pick their poison of committing to limiting Travis Kelce by keeping defensive backs on the field (Mahomes has had an efficient pass on 23 of the Chiefs' 34 dropbacks out of 13 personnel, a 67.6% success rate that is simply comical), or using more linebackers to stop the run. The Chiefs, curiously, have gotten away from using 13 personnel following their bye week. Using it on 9.9% of their snaps before the bye (second in the NFL) to 4.7% over the past four weeks (12th). They have been poor running the ball out of their heavier personnel groupings, which might tie in to their run game improvement by using this personnel grouping less often, but it strips away a simple way to steal positive plays (while also limiting the potential damage a young Chiefs wide receiver might do. Which team he damages is anyone’s guess).The Chiefs might be galvanized by their recent end game sequences and perceived slights. Patrick Mahomes might enter his MADhomes persona and go full Thanos the rest of the way (the Chiefs' remaining schedule: the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals and Chargers; there's some friskiness here with Bill Belichick, Lou Anurumo and a solid Raiders unit, but no true heavyweight). Despite the improved run game and baby steps from players like Rashee Rice (despite his fumble Sunday), the Chiefs' wide receivers are a true wild card for KC and the AFC.If they can simply get out of their own way, even limit their mistakes by just a portion, this Chiefs team still has Mahomes, a capable offensive line (rookie left tackle Wanya Morris held up OK in his first extended action), Kelce and a defense that, despite some injuries, is still playing like a top-10 unit. And they have Andy Reid and a defensive coordinator who is legendary for his week-to-week playoff game plans.The drops are annoying. The penalties more so. But this Chiefs team should be looked at like a true contender in the AFC, especially when you look at the other teams battling for playoff spots. There’s still worry, and yes, January creeps ever closer. But I am not clutching my pearls quite yet.Worry-o-meter: A quarter-slab of ribsAn absolutely bonkers game Monday night combined with the moments of “oh, ya, Josh Allen” on Sunday has the once-sunny Dolphins season feeling like an afternoon sun-shower.According to the NGS win probability model, the @Titans' win probability was as low as 0.4% when they trailed the Dolphins 27-13 with 3:08 left in regulation.The win goes down as the 2nd-most statistically improbable comeback in the NGS era.#TENvsMIA | #Titans pic.twitter.com/03vii31XK1— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 12, 20230.4%! That’s worse odds than that parlay you played last weekend.So, what happened?This defense has ranked among the league’s best since the return of Jalen Ramsey in Week 8. With the second-best success rate and fourth-best mark in EPA per play over that time period, Ramsey’s return allowed Kader Kohou to bump inside to the slot, boosting two positions on the backend of Vic Fangio’s defense.The Dolphins' front, even after the devastating injury to budding star Jaelan Phillips, has been excellent over this time. The group has stopped the run at a league-leading rate and the Dolphins are tied for third with 44 quarterback hits. More remarkable considering the Dolphins send only four pass rushers at the highest-rate in the NFL. Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler and Bradley Chubb lead a very good group even without Phillips.Miami defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (94) celebrates after sacking Tennessee's Will Levis, who ultimately had the last laugh on Monday night. Wilkins leads Miami with 7.5 sacks. (AP Photo/Doug Benc)As long as safeties Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott can return from their injuries, I feel good about where this defense stands. Despite the Will Levis experience on Monday.For the Dolphins' offense, it'll comes down to how Miami deals with its bad health luck. That's a compliment to head coach Mike McDaniel and his ability to adjust week to week and on the fly during games. Left tackle Terron Armstead missed Monday’s game with a knee injury, center Connor Williams is out for the rest of the season with an ACL injury suffered Monday night and right guard Robert Hunt will likely miss more time with a hamstring injury.Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is considered day-to-day with an ankle injury and fellow speedster Jaylen Waddle left the Titans game with an injury before returning.Despite the injuries and unfortunate turnovers in the red zone, the Dolphins' offense has still moved the ball and can still put up points in a hurry. The Dolphins have had one game this entire season in which their combined success and explosive rate dipped below 50% (which is considered league average). They have finished with 20 or more first downs in every game besides one. They have finished with six or more explosive plays in every single game and still average over nine of them, an output most offenses would kill for. This offense has continued to find ways to get yards and points no matter the personnel out there (so long as Hill is one of the players out there), whether it’s on the opening script or because of an in-game adjustment.Offensive line injuries have a natural effect on the health of a run game. That has the potential to tarnish McDaniel's great designs and speed of the Dolphins' weapons, which is very important for any offense, especially this Miami offense that despite the valuable contributions from Hill, still ebbs and flows with how it's doing on the ground.McDaniel has already shown an impressive ability to mitigate injuries and adjust to whatever is ailing his offense over his first two seasons in Miami. He will have to do some of his finest work yet with a gauntlet of a schedule to finish the season. I think this Dolphins defense is playing championship-caliber football recently and the offense can go nuclear at any given moment. The Dolphins will be able to go toe-to-toe with anyone in their conference.(As long as they make it there first.)Worry-o-meter: 5 out of 10 oz. of a filet at Shula’sThe Eagles are weird. They have 10 wins. They are tied for first in the division and have a very real shot of earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, with their schedule including a desperate Seahawks team, the pesky Cardinals and the cutlet-filled New York Giants twice.They will be heavily favored in every game remaining. So, what’s the issue?Well, it’s how the Eagles stack up against the teams they just played back-to-back, the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles will have to at least face one of them come playoff time.The 49ers and Cowboys both relentlessly attacked the spine of the Eagles' defense. The Eagles' depleted linebackers and defensive backs rooms got peppered on the ground and through the air by the 49ers' use of motion and pre-and-post-snap eye candy:The 49ers using motion and different moving parts in the backfield to mess with the Eagles off-ball defenders.Even a moment of hesitation can create huge voids of space or angles that can be attacked. pic.twitter.com/mWO1rqFXeA— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 4, 2023The Cowboys were putting four wide receivers on the field to toy with the already exhausted Eagles secondary and creating one-on-ones between CeeDee Lamb and 31-year-old Bradley Roby, who was on the Eagles' practice squad to start the season:Cowboys trot out 10 personnel (1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR) to stretch the already thinned-out Eagles secondary, who match with Dime (6 DBs).Since the Eagles are in 1-Robber, this creates a one-on-one between CeeDee Lamb and Bradley Roby. With the expected results. pic.twitter.com/Qn2xOiuvy0— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 13, 2023Relentlessly isolating the Eagles linebackers and safeties has been a successful venture for offenses this year. Dak Prescott targeted Lamb 10 times in the slot in the first Cowboys-Eagles matchup this year and the Eagles' defense currently ranks 32nd in DVOA when defending tight ends. That's something you might have noticed when Jake Ferguson and George Kittle were hauling in one of their 16 receptions for 231 yards in their combined three games against the Eagles.This Eagles defense has been more Swiss cheese than the Cheez Whiz the ECW Mutants want. It was an expected natural regression but made even more severe given the patchwork personnel that has occupied about half of that unit’s starters. The Eagles currently rank 29th in defensive success rate (tied with the Denver Broncos, aka “that defense that gave up 70”) and 22nd in weighted DVOA, which weighs recent week performances.There is nothing for this defense to currently lean on. It generates pressure at a league average rate, generate tackles for loss and run stuffs at a slightly above-average rate, but is generally below-average stopping the run. Philly's defensive front still has plenty of pieces: Hasson Reddick still gets his sacks, Josh Sweat is a good starter, Milton Williams has had a nice year, Jalen Carter has been as advertised and looks like he can be already chalked up as an All-Pro in 2024. But Jordan Davis has not been an impact player and planned starting linebacker Nakobe Dean hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Davis and Dean were (and Davis still is) the Eagles' planned answers to shore up their run defense. Right now, even if the defensive line creates edginess along the offensive line, the linebackers and safeties are unable to shore up any mistakes. Where a run look like this:(All-22)Suddenly looks like this:(All-22)The defense has been caught in a transition year. It can still create a pass rush with four, something that is critical in the playoffs, but when the backend personnel is depleted without a simple answer in terms of reinforcements, how will the Eagles find an answer? Do they get into more funky looks and blitz more? It will be interesting to see. Hopefully their schedule will allow them to experiment to find an answer.The Eagles' offense still has stretches of inconsistency, but Philly's run game is still strong and it can create an explosive play at any moment. Defenses have been giving the Eagles issues recently with Cover 2, also known as “clouding,” when A.J. Brown is isolated.Cowboys mixed plenty of coverages throughout the night. Plenty of movement here before the snap and doing something that the Bills had success with a few weeks ago in Clouding AJ Brown whenever he's isolated. pic.twitter.com/hF2hu3Pv4d— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 13, 2023The opposition has also changed the picture post-snap, for instance rotating a safety from in the box to a deep position, which changes how Hurts operates on a given play. That has created hesitation for Hurts and the offense.The Cowboys also blitzed Hurts five times on third and fourth down. And the Cowboys, even when not creating a free runner toward Hurts, made Hurts feel heat when operating from the pocket, leading to quick throws (Hurts’ average time to throw of 2.46 seconds was tied for his quickest in a single game ever as a starter) well short of the sticks or before Eagles pass catchers were breaking on their routes.The Cowboys blitzed on five 3rd/4th down dropbacks against the Eagles in week 14:3rd & 5: 0 yards3rd & 18: 0 yards3rd & 6: 0 yards4th & 8: 1 yard3rd & 6 (30-13 score): 8 yards pic.twitter.com/3sHBc79Rh5— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 13, 2023The Eagles still have talent on their offense. They can create a chunk play with one fell swoop and were still moving the ball on the Cowboys before some ill-timed turnovers. Their quarterback run game even had some nice moments, something that has been surprisingly inefficient for them this season.I think the offense can find answers, even if it isn’t always easy. But the defense, especially given the lack of cavalry on the way and recent performances against the NFC’s elite (plus the Bills the week before), has the worry-o-meter growing brighter.Worry-o-meter: 8 out of 10 inches of a cheesesteakA week after getting Flacco’d, the Jaguars will be facing Joe Flacco’s original NFL team, the Baltimore Ravens. There is no relief with an NFL schedule.The Jaguars' linebackers are starting to get highlighted, with Foyesade Oluokun’s run-first attitude and Devin Lloyd’s inconsistent play starting to get picked at. The Browns took advantage of those deficiencies on David Njoku’s second touchdown of the day:The Browns run a play-action concept that sucks Oluokun (yellow) up like a tractor beam, where he ends up near the line of scrimmage. On top of it, Lloyd (red) assumes that Oluokun will be picking up the crossing Njoku in coverage, you can even see him pointing:The Browns' use of play-action did damage against the Jaguars. (All-22)The Jaguars are one of the worst defenses at all of the things that generally attack linebackers. They are a bottom five unit defending play-action concepts, which are plays that naturally put a linebacker in a bind between their run and pass responsibilities. The first Njoku touchdown came on a play-action concept that caused a miscommunication with the defense where no one covered Njoku:Pre-snap motion, which puts a strain on defenses and their ability to communicate and be on the same page, has also been good against the Jaguars. The Jaguars have allowed 4.7 yards per attempt and a first down on 25.6% on runs that feature pre-snap motion, eighth and seventh highest in each of their categories.Teams have run 55 screens against the Jaguars, tied for second-most in the NFL. While defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell definitely has an affinity for bringing exotic blitz looks, teams like to run screens against the Jaguars because they know how successful those screens can be. Offenses average 7.1 yards per play on screen plays against the Jaguars, fourth-highest in the league.The Jaguars miss Tyson Campbell and their defense can still be strong against the run, even with injuries to a few of their starters. But multiple offenses have started to manipulate the middle of the Jaguars' defense, making it worrisome when Jacksonville goes against the AFC's elite offenses. The Ravens will be a tough test before the Jags' schedule loosens up.The offensive line is in rough shape and the Jaguars miss Christian Kirk, who provides a big play element from the slot that Trevor Lawrence loves to attack in man coverage situations. Several turnovers have recently come from miscommunication or inexperience with Jaguars wide receivers, an interception because Calvin Ridley didn’t look for the ball, Parker Washington attempting to try and get more yards in a hopeless third-and-forever situation (he also didn’t look for the ball on the play Lawrence suffered the high ankle sprain against the Bengals).This offense can still have good moments, with Washington having several positive plays as he’s earned more playing time and Lawrence capable of picking apart defenses when he gets hot. The Jaguars have also started to find some schematic offensive improvements, namely more two tight end looks and play-action concepts, but the injuries and inconsistent run game because of offensive line injuries and Travis Etienne’s boom-or-bust style (please more D’Ernest Johnson snaps, Doug Pederson) make it feel uneven. Even with Lawrence shouldering as much load as possible.I still think of this Jaguars team is a good because of what this offense (especially Lawrence) and defense are capable of, which makes me think they’ll still be hosting a playoff game wild-card weekend. But injuries, offensive line woes and shaky defenses have sunk many promising seasons, especially ones that were talking “one seed” only a few weeks ago.Worry-o-meter: 8 out of 10 drinks at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail PartyDetroit LionsLuckily for the Lions, Justin Fields and his legs are no longer on the schedule (although Russell Wilson has been running around like it’s 2019 in Denver this season. A possible Wilson rushing over prop this weekend?)Sadly, though, I am not sure what will help out the Lions' defense that has been among the league’s worst since playing the Ravens in Week 7. Since then, the Lions rank 27th in defensive success rate and have given up an explosive play on 12.9% of their plays, sandwiched between the Jaguars and Eagles (scroll up for more) in 29th.Like the Jaguars and Eagles, the Lions' linebackers have gotten the spotlight from offenses. Rookie Jack Campbell’s play has been hesitant and he has constantly been attacked by teams’ play-action concepts. Alex Anzalone has regressed after a solid start to the season, while he is often more than capable in the run game, Anzalone has struggled at times to keep up in coverage.Teams have averaged 10.4 yards per play when using play-action concepts against the Lions since Week 7. That's highest in the league. Those explosive plays happened in general because of poor tackling or run fits have plagued this defense from being able to reach any sustainability to match its well-designed offense. At times the defensive coverage can feel predictable, which can lead to easy reads for quarterbacks. Detroit's man coverage looks are often telegraphed, which can negate any potential pass rush because the quarterback can promptly get rid of the ball. The Lions have allowed 6.9 yards per play and -.29 EPA per play when defending in Cover 1, with the Eagles being the only defense ranking worse among the 15 defenses that use Cover 1 on 20% or more of their snaps.There simply haven’t been enough explosive plays by this defense to compensate for how often it has been getting gashed. The Lions rank third in pressure rate since Week 7 but that figure drops to 12th when rushing only four. They're both encouraging numbers, but those have translated to only 13 sacks (perhaps some regression soon?). The Lions too often allow offenses to stay in manageable situations. They already miss 2023 breakout player Alim McNeill and this defense feels like it’s one pass rusher away (James Houston should hopefully return soon and can bring juice up front come playoff time). This can help the Lions at least get a little punch, but their lack of ability to stop the run and defend throws over the middle will be a constant thorn in their side for the rest of the season.The Lions offensive sorely missed center Frank Ragnow, who has been playing at an All-Pro level this year, this past weekend against the Bears. He hopefully returns this week. The offensive line in general has faced a recent swath of injuries, and its ability to play at a high level makes this offense go. With left tackle Taylor Decker battling a back injury and left guard Jonah Jackson having only recently returned from injury, keeping the Lions' front on the field is of the utmost importance for this unit (and team, really).Jared Goff is a completely different quarterback when pressured. When he has clean pockets, his throws stack up with some of the best, but when under duress his success rate drops 19.2%, about the same as rookie Will Levis. Blitzing Goff behind any potential backup offensive linemen can be something that defenses look to lean into. But, if that group is healthy, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will be able to find his moments to throw haymakers and keep this Lions offense firing. It’ll just have to keep up with offenses throwing haymakers of their own.Worry-o-meter: A whole Hot-N-Ready pizza

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