#city index kathleen brooks

[fxasker-blog]

Are Varengoldr Platforms Mac-compatible?

Are Varengoldr Platforms Mac-compatible? Read More http://fxasker.com/question/17566fd2c2b0896b/ FXAsker

[chloe-jayde]

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An advertisement promoting China’s renminbi (RMB) or yuan, U.S. dollar and Euro exchange services is seen outside at foreign exchange store in Hong Kong, China

By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar recovered from last week’s seven-month lows on Monday, edging up against the euro and yen, but still looking exposed to any renewed optimism from a European Central Bank policy meeting this week.

Sterling, on a rollercoaster ride driven by diverging opinion polls ahead of Thursday’s national election, also steadied after a van and knife attack on pedestrians in central London on Saturday spurred a sharp drop in early Asian trade.

Services data from the data are the main set-piece of the European morning on Monday, but dealers say the week should be dominated by the UK election and the ECB meeting, eyed for signs of the bank turning toward tighter policy later this year.

Coming at a time when political risk in Europe has eased, U.S. economic data has worsened and expectations for more rises in Federal Reserve rates have fallen, that prospect pushed the euro to a seven-month high on Friday.

“Overall we think the risks are skewed toward a more cautious stance (from the ECB) than the market is expecting,” said Barclays (LON:) strategist Nick Sgouropoulos, pointing to more downbeat messages sent by other major central banks in recent weeks.

“It would be a very big message for the ECB to go ahead of everybody else. They want to be very cautious about how they change the wording of their statement. We don’t think the euro goes further (up) from here.”

The euro fell just over 0.1 percent to $1.1270, still very close to Friday’s high of $1.1285. The dollar was also 0.1 percent stronger at 110.48 yen.

Other moves among the G10 group of major developed world currencies, however, kept the almost flat compared to Friday’s close at 96.756 ().

The pound’s trade-weighted value has fallen by 3 percent in just under 4 weeks as Prime Minister Theresa May’s bid for a landslide electoral victory that would strengthen her hand in talks on leaving the European Union ran into trouble.

It was not immediately clear how the events on Saturday would impact the election, though the issue of security has been thrust to the forefront of the campaign after the London Bridge and Manchester attacks.

Polls have given widely varying results, but some indicate the election could be close, possibly throwing Britain into political deadlock just days before formal Brexit talks with the European Union are due to begin on June 19.

“The pound has made an impressive recovery in early trading after a torrid weekend,” said City Index analyst Kathleen Brooks.

“Although the Tory lead has been eroded, if the FT’s poll of polls is correct then it would suggest that the Conservatives will win this election, but maybe not by such a comfortable majority as was expected a month ago.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

[jettadarkwynd]

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An advertisement promoting China’s renminbi (RMB) or yuan, U.S. dollar and Euro exchange services is seen outside at foreign exchange store in Hong Kong, China

By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar recovered from last week’s seven-month lows on Monday, edging up against the euro and yen, but still looking exposed to any renewed optimism from a European Central Bank policy meeting this week.

Sterling, on a rollercoaster ride driven by diverging opinion polls ahead of Thursday’s national election, also steadied after a van and knife attack on pedestrians in central London on Saturday spurred a sharp drop in early Asian trade.

Services data from the data are the main set-piece of the European morning on Monday, but dealers say the week should be dominated by the UK election and the ECB meeting, eyed for signs of the bank turning toward tighter policy later this year.

Coming at a time when political risk in Europe has eased, U.S. economic data has worsened and expectations for more rises in Federal Reserve rates have fallen, that prospect pushed the euro to a seven-month high on Friday.

“Overall we think the risks are skewed toward a more cautious stance (from the ECB) than the market is expecting,” said Barclays (LON:) strategist Nick Sgouropoulos, pointing to more downbeat messages sent by other major central banks in recent weeks.

“It would be a very big message for the ECB to go ahead of everybody else. They want to be very cautious about how they change the wording of their statement. We don’t think the euro goes further (up) from here.”

The euro fell just over 0.1 percent to $1.1270, still very close to Friday’s high of $1.1285. The dollar was also 0.1 percent stronger at 110.48 yen.

Other moves among the G10 group of major developed world currencies, however, kept the almost flat compared to Friday’s close at 96.756 ().

The pound’s trade-weighted value has fallen by 3 percent in just under 4 weeks as Prime Minister Theresa May’s bid for a landslide electoral victory that would strengthen her hand in talks on leaving the European Union ran into trouble.

It was not immediately clear how the events on Saturday would impact the election, though the issue of security has been thrust to the forefront of the campaign after the London Bridge and Manchester attacks.

Polls have given widely varying results, but some indicate the election could be close, possibly throwing Britain into political deadlock just days before formal Brexit talks with the European Union are due to begin on June 19.

“The pound has made an impressive recovery in early trading after a torrid weekend,” said City Index analyst Kathleen Brooks.

“Although the Tory lead has been eroded, if the FT’s poll of polls is correct then it would suggest that the Conservatives will win this election, but maybe not by such a comfortable majority as was expected a month ago.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

[cute1dfacts]

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An advertisement promoting China’s renminbi (RMB) or yuan, U.S. dollar and Euro exchange services is seen outside at foreign exchange store in Hong Kong, China

By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar recovered from last week’s seven-month lows on Monday, edging up against the euro and yen, but still looking exposed to any renewed optimism from a European Central Bank policy meeting this week.

Sterling, on a rollercoaster ride driven by diverging opinion polls ahead of Thursday’s national election, also steadied after a van and knife attack on pedestrians in central London on Saturday spurred a sharp drop in early Asian trade.

Services data from the data are the main set-piece of the European morning on Monday, but dealers say the week should be dominated by the UK election and the ECB meeting, eyed for signs of the bank turning toward tighter policy later this year.

Coming at a time when political risk in Europe has eased, U.S. economic data has worsened and expectations for more rises in Federal Reserve rates have fallen, that prospect pushed the euro to a seven-month high on Friday.

“Overall we think the risks are skewed toward a more cautious stance (from the ECB) than the market is expecting,” said Barclays (LON:) strategist Nick Sgouropoulos, pointing to more downbeat messages sent by other major central banks in recent weeks.

“It would be a very big message for the ECB to go ahead of everybody else. They want to be very cautious about how they change the wording of their statement. We don’t think the euro goes further (up) from here.”

The euro fell just over 0.1 percent to $1.1270, still very close to Friday’s high of $1.1285. The dollar was also 0.1 percent stronger at 110.48 yen.

Other moves among the G10 group of major developed world currencies, however, kept the almost flat compared to Friday’s close at 96.756 ().

The pound’s trade-weighted value has fallen by 3 percent in just under 4 weeks as Prime Minister Theresa May’s bid for a landslide electoral victory that would strengthen her hand in talks on leaving the European Union ran into trouble.

It was not immediately clear how the events on Saturday would impact the election, though the issue of security has been thrust to the forefront of the campaign after the London Bridge and Manchester attacks.

Polls have given widely varying results, but some indicate the election could be close, possibly throwing Britain into political deadlock just days before formal Brexit talks with the European Union are due to begin on June 19.

“The pound has made an impressive recovery in early trading after a torrid weekend,” said City Index analyst Kathleen Brooks.

“Although the Tory lead has been eroded, if the FT’s poll of polls is correct then it would suggest that the Conservatives will win this election, but maybe not by such a comfortable majority as was expected a month ago.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

[breakbit]

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An advertisement promoting China’s renminbi (RMB) or yuan, U.S. dollar and Euro exchange services is seen outside at foreign exchange store in Hong Kong, China

By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar recovered from last week’s seven-month lows on Monday, edging up against the euro and yen, but still looking exposed to any renewed optimism from a European Central Bank policy meeting this week.

Sterling, on a rollercoaster ride driven by diverging opinion polls ahead of Thursday’s national election, also steadied after a van and knife attack on pedestrians in central London on Saturday spurred a sharp drop in early Asian trade.

Services data from the data are the main set-piece of the European morning on Monday, but dealers say the week should be dominated by the UK election and the ECB meeting, eyed for signs of the bank turning toward tighter policy later this year.

Coming at a time when political risk in Europe has eased, U.S. economic data has worsened and expectations for more rises in Federal Reserve rates have fallen, that prospect pushed the euro to a seven-month high on Friday.

“Overall we think the risks are skewed toward a more cautious stance (from the ECB) than the market is expecting,” said Barclays (LON:) strategist Nick Sgouropoulos, pointing to more downbeat messages sent by other major central banks in recent weeks.

“It would be a very big message for the ECB to go ahead of everybody else. They want to be very cautious about how they change the wording of their statement. We don’t think the euro goes further (up) from here.”

The euro fell just over 0.1 percent to $1.1270, still very close to Friday’s high of $1.1285. The dollar was also 0.1 percent stronger at 110.48 yen.

Other moves among the G10 group of major developed world currencies, however, kept the almost flat compared to Friday’s close at 96.756 ().

The pound’s trade-weighted value has fallen by 3 percent in just under 4 weeks as Prime Minister Theresa May’s bid for a landslide electoral victory that would strengthen her hand in talks on leaving the European Union ran into trouble.

It was not immediately clear how the events on Saturday would impact the election, though the issue of security has been thrust to the forefront of the campaign after the London Bridge and Manchester attacks.

Polls have given widely varying results, but some indicate the election could be close, possibly throwing Britain into political deadlock just days before formal Brexit talks with the European Union are due to begin on June 19.

“The pound has made an impressive recovery in early trading after a torrid weekend,” said City Index analyst Kathleen Brooks.

“Although the Tory lead has been eroded, if the FT’s poll of polls is correct then it would suggest that the Conservatives will win this election, but maybe not by such a comfortable majority as was expected a month ago.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

[taylordmorris]

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An advertisement promoting China’s renminbi (RMB) or yuan, U.S. dollar and Euro exchange services is seen outside at foreign exchange store in Hong Kong, China

By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar recovered from last week’s seven-month lows on Monday, edging up against the euro and yen, but still looking exposed to any renewed optimism from a European Central Bank policy meeting this week.

Sterling, on a rollercoaster ride driven by diverging opinion polls ahead of Thursday’s national election, also steadied after a van and knife attack on pedestrians in central London on Saturday spurred a sharp drop in early Asian trade.

Services data from the data are the main set-piece of the European morning on Monday, but dealers say the week should be dominated by the UK election and the ECB meeting, eyed for signs of the bank turning toward tighter policy later this year.

Coming at a time when political risk in Europe has eased, U.S. economic data has worsened and expectations for more rises in Federal Reserve rates have fallen, that prospect pushed the euro to a seven-month high on Friday.

“Overall we think the risks are skewed toward a more cautious stance (from the ECB) than the market is expecting,” said Barclays (LON:) strategist Nick Sgouropoulos, pointing to more downbeat messages sent by other major central banks in recent weeks.

“It would be a very big message for the ECB to go ahead of everybody else. They want to be very cautious about how they change the wording of their statement. We don’t think the euro goes further (up) from here.”

The euro fell just over 0.1 percent to $1.1270, still very close to Friday’s high of $1.1285. The dollar was also 0.1 percent stronger at 110.48 yen.

Other moves among the G10 group of major developed world currencies, however, kept the almost flat compared to Friday’s close at 96.756 ().

The pound’s trade-weighted value has fallen by 3 percent in just under 4 weeks as Prime Minister Theresa May’s bid for a landslide electoral victory that would strengthen her hand in talks on leaving the European Union ran into trouble.

It was not immediately clear how the events on Saturday would impact the election, though the issue of security has been thrust to the forefront of the campaign after the London Bridge and Manchester attacks.

Polls have given widely varying results, but some indicate the election could be close, possibly throwing Britain into political deadlock just days before formal Brexit talks with the European Union are due to begin on June 19.

“The pound has made an impressive recovery in early trading after a torrid weekend,” said City Index analyst Kathleen Brooks.

“Although the Tory lead has been eroded, if the FT’s poll of polls is correct then it would suggest that the Conservatives will win this election, but maybe not by such a comfortable majority as was expected a month ago.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

[benmauerberger]

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

Dollar steadies, sterling jolted by London attack

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An advertisement promoting China’s renminbi (RMB) or yuan, U.S. dollar and Euro exchange services is seen outside at foreign exchange store in Hong Kong, China

By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar recovered from last week’s seven-month lows on Monday, edging up against the euro and yen, but still looking exposed to any renewed optimism from a European Central Bank policy meeting this week.

Sterling, on a rollercoaster ride driven by diverging opinion polls ahead of Thursday’s national election, also steadied after a van and knife attack on pedestrians in central London on Saturday spurred a sharp drop in early Asian trade.

Services data from the data are the main set-piece of the European morning on Monday, but dealers say the week should be dominated by the UK election and the ECB meeting, eyed for signs of the bank turning toward tighter policy later this year.

Coming at a time when political risk in Europe has eased, U.S. economic data has worsened and expectations for more rises in Federal Reserve rates have fallen, that prospect pushed the euro to a seven-month high on Friday.

“Overall we think the risks are skewed toward a more cautious stance (from the ECB) than the market is expecting,” said Barclays (LON:) strategist Nick Sgouropoulos, pointing to more downbeat messages sent by other major central banks in recent weeks.

“It would be a very big message for the ECB to go ahead of everybody else. They want to be very cautious about how they change the wording of their statement. We don’t think the euro goes further (up) from here.”

The euro fell just over 0.1 percent to $1.1270, still very close to Friday’s high of $1.1285. The dollar was also 0.1 percent stronger at 110.48 yen.

Other moves among the G10 group of major developed world currencies, however, kept the almost flat compared to Friday’s close at 96.756 ().

The pound’s trade-weighted value has fallen by 3 percent in just under 4 weeks as Prime Minister Theresa May’s bid for a landslide electoral victory that would strengthen her hand in talks on leaving the European Union ran into trouble.

It was not immediately clear how the events on Saturday would impact the election, though the issue of security has been thrust to the forefront of the campaign after the London Bridge and Manchester attacks.

Polls have given widely varying results, but some indicate the election could be close, possibly throwing Britain into political deadlock just days before formal Brexit talks with the European Union are due to begin on June 19.

“The pound has made an impressive recovery in early trading after a torrid weekend,” said City Index analyst Kathleen Brooks.

“Although the Tory lead has been eroded, if the FT’s poll of polls is correct then it would suggest that the Conservatives will win this election, but maybe not by such a comfortable majority as was expected a month ago.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/dollar-steadies-sterling-jolted-by-london-attack

[livewireblog30]

Ibex Rally Continues After Weekend News On Catalan Region

The Spanish Ibex index has made some incredibly strong moves since Monday. After the announcement by the Madrid government to remove the power of the Catalan leaders which held the “illegal” referendum on independence.

From a close down below 10,200 on Friday the Ibex index has moved steadily higher to near 10,600 in early trade on Tuesday.

The move by Madrid to remove the power of the Catalan government is seen as bullish for stocks which were being held back by uncertainties surrounding the issue.

Kathleen Brooks, from City Index said: “Spanish markets are in recovery mode at the start of this week. Although this is a fluid situation there are a few things that are keeping the markets calm, which is why EUR/USD is back above 1.16 and the Ibex is the best performer in European equity markets”.

With the DAX index heading towards new all-time highs and the FTSE 100 consolidating up near October highs, it would not be beyond the realms of possibilities at the IBEX index could continue up much higher over the coming months.

The Ibex made an all-time high up above 11,000 in early summer. If the pattern of other stock indexes is to be followed then the ibex could play catch up fast. Especially if the news continues that Madrid is to create stability in the region.

Here you can see on the daily chart the down trend line that has clearly broken, and the all-time high above. Whether it heads straight there remains to be seen.

One thing is for sure is that this volatility will continue for some time yet, and you could find some excellent trading opportunities along the way.

from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/10/ibex-rally-continues-after-weekend-news-on-catalan-region/

[itsevirall-blog]

The pound is at a 4-week low on 'the prospect of a leaderless UK or even worse, Prime Minister Boris'

The pound is at a 4-week low on ‘the prospect of a leaderless UK or even worse, Prime Minister Boris’

LONDON — The pound is falling against the dollar and the euro on Thursday, amid speculation that Theresa May could be ousted at British Prime Minister.

Sterling is down close to 0.80% against the dollar, a four week low, at 3.30 p.m. BST (8.30 a.m. ET) and down 0.50% against the euro.Markets Insider

Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, says in an email on Thursday:…

[newstinxahoi]

Catalonia - 'mỏ vàng' của Tây Ban Nha

Kết quả sơ bộ cuộc trưng cầu dân ý hôm qua cho thấy hầu hết người dân Catalonia muốn tách khỏi Tây Ban Nha, chiếm 90% số phiếu được kiểm. Cuộc trưng cầu dân ý không có giá trị pháp lý, khi bị tòa án hiến pháp Tây Ban Nha cùng Madrid phản đối vì đi ngược lại hiến pháp năm 1978.

Giới chuyên gia nhận định kết quả trưng cầu dân ý này có nguy cơ đẩy Tây Ban Nha vào một trong những cuộc khủng hoảng chính trị tồi tệ nhất kể từ năm 1975. Nó diễn ra trong bối cảnh nước này chỉ vừa thoát khỏi gần một thập kỷ khó khăn kinh tế. Cuộc trưng cầu dân ý thậm chí còn ảnh hưởng lên nền kinh tế cả châu Âu.

Vị trí vùng Catalonia, Tây Ban Nha. Đồ họa: BBC

Catalonia có dân số khoảng 7,5 triệu người và là khu vực có năng suất kinh tế lớn nhất Tây Ban Nha, đóng góp gần một phần năm GDP và 25% hàng xuất khẩu cho nước này. Catalonia cũng đóng nhiều thuế hơn là phần nhận được từ Chính phủ. Khu vực này nộp tới 21% thuế cả nước.

Những người muốn tách ra không hài lòng với sự mất cân bằng này. Họ cho rằng nếu ngừng đưa tiền cho Madrid, ngân sách của Catalonia sẽ chuyển từ thâm hụt sang thặng dư.

Catalonia từ lâu đã thu hút đầu tư, với gần một phần ba công ty nước ngoài sang Tây Ban Nha đều chọn Barcelona - thủ phủ của Catalonia để xây văn phòng. Các hãng xe Volkswagen và Nissan đều có nhà máy gần Barcelona.

Dù vậy, nếu tách riêng, khu vực này cũng sẽ gặp rất nhiều khó khăn, trong đó có việc mất quyền thành viên trong Liên minh châu Âu (EU). Nếu Catalonia tự nộp đơn vào EU, họ sẽ phải thuyết phục được các thành viên hiện tại đồng ý, trong đó có Tây Ban Nha.

"Chúng tôi không nhận thấy tính khả thi cao trong việc Catalonia tách thành nước độc lập và là thành viên EU như phần lớn người ủng hộ mong muốn", các nhà kinh tế học tại Berenberg Bank nhận xét.

Nông dân lái máy kéo trên đường phố Barcelona ủng hộ Catalonia tách riêng. Ảnh: Reuters

Rời khỏi khối này cũng có thể khiến chi phí xuất khẩu của Catalonia sang các nước khác cao hơn. "Họ sẽ nằm trong nhóm nước nhỏ không thuộc Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới (WTO), tức là phải đối mặt với nhiều rào cản thương mại lớn", Stephen Brown - nhà kinh tế học tại Capital Economics nhận xét. Brown cho biết động thái này cũng sẽ làm tăng giá hàng nhập khẩu vào Catalonia và gây ra mất việc làm.

Độc lập còn có thể khiến họ phải đi vay với lãi suất cao hơn. Các hãng xếp hạng tín nhiệm lớn là Moody’s và S&P đều đã hạ tín nhiệm Catalonia năm 2016. Bên cạnh đó, khu vực này cũng sẽ vẫn dùng đồng euro, nhưng khó có chỗ trong Ngân hàng Trung ương châu Âu (ECB).

Với Tây Ban Nha, việc tách ra sẽ càng khiến tài chính nước này đi xuống và tăng bất ổn. Nếu Catalonia đơn phương tuyên bố độc lập, khu vực này có thể từ chối chịu trách nhiệm với phần nợ quốc gia đang gánh. "Dù kinh tế Tây Ban Nha đến nay chưa chịu ảnh hưởng lớn, niềm tin tiêu dùng và doanh nghiệp cũng sẽ duy giảm nếu Catalonia tách ra", ông Brown nhận xét.

Giới đầu tư cũng có quan điểm trái chiều về vấn đề này. "Cũng như Brexit, chúng tôi cho rằng Catalexit sẽ đẩy khu vực này vào thời kỳ bất ổn dài, có thể gây ảnh hưởng tiêu cực đến lĩnh vực tư nhân", Geoffrey Minne - nhà kinh tế học tại ING dự báo. Kathleen Brooks - giám đốc nghiên cứu tại City Index thì ước tính đồng euro giảm 5% sau cuộc trưng cầu dân ý.

Dù vậy, một số lại cho rằng kết quả chọn rời đi cũng chưa chắc khiến Catalonia tách ra. "Chính quyền Catalonia sẽ dùng kết quả này để tăng vị thế trong các cuộc đàm phán sau này với Chính phủ Tây Ban Nha", Laurence Allan - nhà phân tích tại IHS Markit dự báo.

Hà Thu (theo CNN)

[omcik-blog]

New Post has been published on OmCik

New Post has been published on http://omcik.com/spain-loses-20-of-its-economy-if-catalonia-splits/

Spain loses 20% of its economy if Catalonia splits

Would going it alone work for Catalonia?

The Spanish region is holding an independence referendum on Sunday with major economic implications for the country — and Europe.

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The vote, which is fiercely opposed by Spain’s central government, comes as the country emerges from nearly a decade of economic trauma. Catalonia is its most economically productive region.

Here’s what’s at stake:

Richer on their own?

Catalonia accounts for nearly a fifth of Spain’s economy, and leads all regions in producing 25% of the country’s exports.

It contributes much more in taxes (21% of the country’s total) than it gets back from the government.

Independence supporters have seized on the imbalance, arguing that stopping transfers to Madrid would turn Catalonia’s budget deficit into a surplus.

Catalonia has a proven record of attracting investment, with nearly a third of all foreign companies in Spain choosing the regional capital of Barcelona as their base.

Volkswagen (VLKAY) and Nissan (NSANF), for example, both have plants near Barcelona.

Related: Catalonia on collision course as banned referendum nears

Big risks

But there are many unanswered questions — including continued membership in the European Union.

If Catalonia was forced to independently apply for EU membership, it would have to convince all of the bloc’s current members to agree — including Spain.

“We currently see no practical way for Catalonia to become an independent country within the EU, as most supporters of independence want,” economists at Berenberg Bank wrote in a research note.

Dropping out of bloc would likely raise the cost of exporting goods produced in Catalonia to EU members and other nations.

“It would join the small list of countries that are not World Trade Organization members, meaning it would face significant trade barriers,” said Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics.

Barcelona: The jewel in Spain’s economy

Brown said the move would increase the price of imported goods in Catalonia and result in job losses.

Independence could also make it more expensive for the region’s government to borrow. Credit ratings agencies Moody’s and S&P both downgraded Catalonia’s debt rating in 2016.

The region could continue using the euro as its currency, but would not have a seat at the European Central Bank.

What about Spain?

Spain’s highest court has banned the referendum, calling it unconstitutional. But the separatist regional government is pushing ahead with the vote.

A split would leave a hole in Spain’s finances and dramatically increase uncertainty.

If Catalonia declares independence unilaterally, it might also refuse to take on its share of the national debt.

“While there does not appear to have been any serious effect on the wider Spanish economy so far, it is likely that business and consumer confidence would deteriorate if Catalonia were to secede,” Brown said.

What’s next

The buzzword for investors is uncertainty.

“As with Brexit, we believe that any Catalexit would plunge the region into a long period of uncertainty and would most probably be negative for the private sector,” ING economist Geoffrey Minne wrote in a research note.

Kathleen Brooks, the research director at City Index, said a referendum win for the separatists could cause the euro to decline by as much as 5%.

However, even a decisive “yes” vote is unlikely to result in Madrid or the EU recognizing Catalonia as “independent.”

“The Catalan government will instead attempt to use a positive referendum result to increase its leverage in future negotiations with the Spanish government,” said Laurence Allan of IHS Markit.

CNNMoney (London) First published September 29, 2017: 11:15 AM ET

[silviajburke]

Who Will Be Left to Buy?

This post Who Will Be Left to Buy? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

“If the machines decide to sell, who is left to buy?”

The renowned Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners, would like an answer.

So would many others… your editor included.

“The machines” are computers running complex trading algorithms — pre-programmed software that lets computers “think” and trade for themselves.

And they now control a third of all trading on U.S. stock exchanges.

But for good or ill?

A computer is remarkably smarter than homo sapiens.

But a computer is remarkably dumber than homo sapiens.

It’s an idiot savant, all brains, no sense — Rain Man in silicon and wire.

It can add two and two.

But it can’t put two and two together…

IBM’s supercomputer, Watson, squared off against two top Jeopardy! players some years back.

It licked them both.

But when given the clue “It’s what grasshoppers eat,” Watson’s response told volumes:

“What is kosher?”

Kosher.

The late polymath Leo Cherne on the paradox:

“The computer is incredibly fast, accurate and stupid. Man is incredibly slow, inaccurate and brilliant.”

If crunching numbers, we’ll take the computer’s two out of three over man’s one out of three.

But not when the time calls for judgment…

Perhaps you recall “Black Monday.”

The Dow plunged 22% on Oct. 19, 1987 — the largest one-day market crash in history.

Brilliant, stupid computers didn’t start it.

But brilliant, stupid computers turned a down day on Wall Street into Black Monday.

Once the initial selling started the computers went to pieces and sold and sold and sold.

The New York Times:

As computers came in, human judgment went out.

Human judgment stayed out until the Dow lost 22% of its value in a single day.

The British pound sterling plunged 6% in two minutes on Oct. 7, 2016.

A 1% or 2% daily move in an asset as liquid as the pound is banner news. And here… a 6% crash… in two minutes.

What happened?

A computer caught a whiff of “fake news” about the British pound sterling.

So it got it in its head to sell the pound that day.

And great minds think alike.

So the selling begat selling begat selling, and the computers had themselves a day at the races before law and order was finally restored.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at the financial betting firm City Index:

Apparently, it was a rogue algorithm that triggered the sell-off… These days, some algos trade on the back of news sites… so a deluge of negative Brexit headlines could have led to an algo taking that as a major sell signal for the pound… Once the pound started moving lower, more technical algos could have followed suit, compounding the short, sharp, selling pressure.

Brilliant but stupid.

Bill Black is a former federal regulator who investigated the savings and loans (S&L) crisis of the ’80s and ’90s.

And he thinks these brilliant but stupid computers could cause “a series of cascade failures”— as followed Lehman’s collapse in 2008:

“If enough of these bad things occur at the same time, financial institutions can begin to fail, even very large ones.”

But as far as this fellow is concerned, it’s not a question of whether this will happen but when.

Jim Rickards is no stranger to the contagion effects of financial crisis.

Jim was general counsel at Long Term Capital Management, which was the epicenter of the 1997 currency crisis that nearly bankrupted Wall Street banks.

Jim says a computer-amplified sell-off could cause “a market decline of 20% or more in a single day, comparable to the stock market crash of October 1987 or the crash of 1929.”

Jim brings the science of complexity to bear upon markets. And he says to expect more of these types of crashes… including the big one:

This kind of sudden, unexpected crash that seems to emerge from nowhere is entirely consistent with the predictions of complexity theory. Increasing market scale correlates with exponentially larger market collapses…

Eventually, there would be a flash crash that would not bounce back and would be the beginning of a global contagion and financial panic worse than what the world went through in 2008.

What if the damn fool computers go out of their minds and the Dow plummets 5,000 points before someone can pull the plug?

Recall that man is slow, inaccurate and brilliant while the fool computer is fast, accurate and stupid.

But how brilliant is man if he puts stupid computers in charge of his money?

What’s worse after all… to be a fool… or to follow a fool?

Regards,

Brian Maher Managing editor, The Daily Reckoning

The post Who Will Be Left to Buy? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

[independenceway-blog]

Britain's FTSE extends gains as inflation holds steady; Next sinks

By Helen Reid LONDON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - British offers climbed again on Tuesday as a recuperation crosswise over value markets created after a sharp auction a week ago, and broadened increases after information demonstrated swelling out of the blue held relentless in July. The FTSE 100 hit a session high, up 0.3 percent, after additions driven by shopper staples and a few representative overhauls were reinforced by financial specialists' alleviation that inflationary weights facilitated a month ago. The recently blended resource chief Standard Life Aberdeen climbed once more, the best FTSE gainer, after a twofold overhaul from Barclays to overweight from underweight. "Arrangement collaborations at 200 million pounds seem appealing and there is proof to propose that past headwinds of surges at GARS and Global Emerging Markets (GEM) at Aberdeen are subsiding," said Barclays experts. Guard and security firm BAE Systems rose 1.3 percent after kingmovies Goldman Sachs added the stock to its "conviction list" and repeated its purchase rating. "We expect program development, and another Typhoon [combat aircraft] arrange from Saudi Arabia, to bond the standpoint for 2019/2020," they stated, including BAE had failed to meet expectations the FTSE 100 as of late and now exchanged at a more extensive than normal markdown to U.S. peers. Shire rose 1.8 percent in the wake of presenting an application for the showcasing of a treatment for dry eye infection. Next tumbled to the base of the FTSE, down 3.4 percent after Berenberg downsized its rating on the retailer to "offer" from 'hold', refering to the expansive number of retail outlets it has as a brake on its capacity to contribute. "While it rushed to perceive the online open door, it has neglected to completely adjust its plan of action, rather concentrating on here and now income and benefit," said Berenberg experts. Offers in subsidize grocery store Hargreaves Lansdown fell 2.9 percent after it announced outcomes, as financial specialists communicated frustration with a profit down 15 percent from a year back In spite of the fact that swelling appeared to be losing steam, it stayed over the Bank of England's objective level, however examiners said the results for stocks were mind boggling. "With regards to stocks, the effect of swelling is not clear," said Kathleen Brooks, examiner at City Index. "Despite the fact that the UK has above target swelling, development organizations are profiting from low loan fees, which is the reason the UK's AIM showcase has had a stonking year," she included (see diagram underneath). Among mid-tops, oil firms Petrofac and Tullow Oil kept the list down, down around 4 percent each after rough costs tumbled overnight. (Detailing by Helen Reid; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

[stickyyouthstudent]

Markets move higher as Japanese growth beats forecasts - business live

Investors await eurozone industrial production as Japanese economy grows by annualised 4%

7.52am BST

The eurozone industrial production figures could show the effects of the recent strength of the euro. The single currency has benefitted from weakness elsewhere, particularly in the dollar, but this is causing a problem for the European Central Bank. President Mario Draghi is under pressure to begin easing the central bank’s quantitative easing and low interest rate policy, but a stronger euro makes that more tricky. Commenting on today’s expected data, Dave Madden at CMC Markets said:

The consensus is for a reading of -0.4% and 2.9% on a month-on-month basis and on a year-on-year basis respectively. The relative strength of the euro is hitting the region, and traders want to see if that is still the case.

7.48am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

After last week’s market turmoil in the wake of growing tensions and belligerent rhetoric between North Korea and the US, the week looks like starting on a calmer note. As Kathleen Brooks at City Index put it:

The fact that we didn’t see an escalation in the rhetoric from either side over the weekend could be enough to trigger a recovery after last week’s risk selloff, and keep the markets focused on the economic fundamentals.

That makes Japan the fastest growing economy in the G7 this quarter by our reckoning and may re-start the chatter about the Bank of Japan’s eventual QQE [Qualitative Monetary Easing] exit strategy....

This was not one of those flukey one-offs that was caused by a surge in inventories that will be worked down in coming quarters, or one of those random spikes caused by exports and imports growing out of synch.

Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7321 +0.15% $DAX 12044 +0.25% $CAC 5071 +0.20%$IBEX 10299 +0.16%$MIB 21420 +0.31%

Continue reading...

[maricelan4192-blog]

Trump 'Optimistic' At Neil Gorsuch's Swearing.

BREXIT INCREASE: Managers confident regarding employing UK personnel after Britain leaves European Union. In Learned Positive outlook, by Martin Seligman, it mentions that skill plus desire, yet without positive outlook, will cause failure. Faithless I always want to search the optimistic side of life, but I am realistic adequate to understand that life is a complex matter." - Walt Disney. The other day was a poor one for European traders, with London's FTSE 100 shedding 75 points (or 1%). People must not be categorised as pessimists or optimists," the scientists ended. The difference is laid out wonderfully by the British intellectual, Terry Eagleton, in his current publication, Hope Without Positive outlook, which establishes pit the connection really clearly with a wide range of colourful examples. His research study reveals that pessimists could reorient their thinking by taking control of their minds as well as creating routines that assist them assume favorably. Second of all, the tendency of pessimists is to take failings or bad things personally. Many individuals feel a little down from time to time, however some may find that they lack inspiration, as well as just could not smile as long as they utilized to. Shockingly, research studies have actually revealed that 60% of individuals will suffer from depression eventually in their lives. Nearly forgot - One more need to be a great optimist - Many optimists also make more loan!!! It is most likely Mr Klaver will certainly be compelled to picked between going into power for the first time with a centre-right coalition, or holding to his party's left-wing stance and also suitables. Patrice Evans is an internet business owner with a number of organisations. They return to most likely the beginning of the 20th century, as well as they were large in Star Manufacturer by Olaf Stapledon. By keeping in mind the 3 P's as well as turning the script, study shows you could make on your own much more positive in time. Finally, optimism impacts the body at a physical level by influencing the body immune system; Optimists catch less contagious disease than pessimists. In a study that was done at the College of Pennsylvania, students that practiced found out optimism methods reported much less cases of modest to serious depression compared to the control group. We shouldn't leap to the verdict that being confident makes people healthier. Independently, the Society of Motor Manufacturers said UK cars and truck production accomplished a 17-year high in 2016 mainly thanks to increasing overseas demand. Here's more about visit the up coming website look at our web-page. Kathleen Brooks, of City Index, states the 'Trump profession' is still on. This prejudice is straight in opposition to a downhearted person's area of issue. Professor that predicted Brexit as well as Trump claims European Union will DISAPPEAR in 2017. She is constantly pessimistic, almost to the factor of being catatonic. Like many useful drugs, amphetamine has been made use of in one kind or an additional for centuries (preferred referrals consist of the hospital scene from Downton Abbey Episode One, Dexys Twelve o'clock at night Runners, as well as, looking ahead, the Neurachem of Richard Morgan's Transformed Carbon). If a victim of anxiety or anxiousness and the like to get themselves right into the process of discovering optimism, I could visualize it would certainly be troublesome. Among the British households questioned, 20 percent of those who had actually gone overseas in 2008 were intending a UK vacation this year. The fall in sterling because June's Brexit referendum had actually raised suppliers' expenses for products as well as imports connected to commodities such as oil which are costed in US dollars, versus which the pound is down nearly 20 percent given that the ballot, the record noted. Provided current occasions precede, from New Perspective's goal to Pluto, Kepler's discovery of new worlds and also NASA's searchings for of new proof of water on Europa, tv might be topped for a new space experience. A personal thanks email from myself (Ben). AND ALSO a thanks tweet on the @mumsthewordfilm Twitter As Well As a very early sneak peek link to the video stream prior to it is released on-line AND ALSO an Executive Producer credit score at the end of the video. Theresa May's Federal government has actually sworn to make certain that little and also average companies grow after Britain leaves the EU. Each of the above researches has made use of multiple thankfulness workouts to attempt to impact change. Below are ten methods to become much more positive as well as to invigorate your organization. Tron is the cult film that brought virtual reality to the masses, through a wireframe world as well as men in glowing matches riding light cycles. Hopeful people locate even more pleasure in life as well as are normally extra positive to be about due to the fact that they refuse to worry about things they could not regulate. Hopeful management is not concerning seeing the world via increased colored glasses. It has placed a heavy emphasis on video and also just recently combined with the parent firm of equally positive GOOD magazine.

[jmmgroup-blog]

The danger of a crash landing in high-flying stocks, bonds and property

Global stock markets are flying. In the US, the Dow Jones has shot past its all-time high to trade at more than 20,000. The UK’s FTSE 100 is also breaking records, having burst convincingly through the 7,000 barrier after years of trying.

Bonds are now in a bull market that has lasted more than 30 years and have constantly shrugged off dire warnings of a meltdown.

Property prices continue to power upwards as well, rising another 5.3 per cent over the past 12 months, at their fastest rate for two years, according to the latest Knight Frank Global House Price Index.

Nothing seems able to stop the global surge in asset prices, which has also driven the price of many commodities, including industrial metals and in recent weeks, oil and gas.

Investors have shrugged off war in the Middle East, the Chinese property and credit bubble, euro­-zone stagnation, Brexit and the US president Donald Trump, as they continue to drive assets higher and higher.

So why isn’t everybody celebrating? Instead of throwing a party, many investors are watching events nervously, seemingly waiting for everything to go wrong.

Some are more nervous than others. Fund manager David Coombs, head of multi-asset at Rathbone Unit Trust Management, says markets are brewing up a perfect storm, and conditions are ripe for an imminent market correction of at least 10 per cent. It could be more.

He is now holding the highest-ever cash weightings across his portfolios, despite record low interest rates because he saw danger almost everywhere else, according to a report on FT Trustnet.

Mr Coombs isn’t just worried about stock markets falling, he is struggling to find worthwhile investment opportunities across just about every asset class. “We dislike bonds, we dislike property, we dislike infrastructure, we are looking at commodities but they’ve had a bit of a rally. We don’t even like any of the alternative asset classes to be honest. It is really tough at the moment,” he says.

Mr Coombs has a strong investment track record. Since launch in 2009, Rathbone Total Return Portfolio has returned 58.65 per cent compared to its benchmark’s return of 23.92 per cent.

So can stock markets, bonds and property really all crash at the same time? If so, how can investors protect themselves?

Plenty of other analysts also believe that stock markets are overvalued. Josh Mah­oney, a market analyst at online trading platform IG, which has offices in the UAE, says a rising gold price is a traditional sign of danger ahead, and it has recently spiked to a three-month high at around $1,240, suggesting the flight to safety may have already begun. “The outperformance of gold, alongside lower-risk bonds and safe currency haven the Japanese yen highlights the worries rumbling beneath global markets.

He suggests the “ominous quiet” across US markets may be a signal that something big is on its way. “The current flows into gold and US Treasuries and away from the S&P 500 is another indication that the equity rally is looking exhausted.”

Kathleen Brooks, research dir­ector at City Index Direct, says political dangers are growing, with elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany, where populists could make further headway, Brexit worries and a potential flaring up of the Greek debt and Italian banking crisis.

Then there is The Donald. When Mr Trump was elected president, stock markets surprised everybody by rising rather than plunging in panic. Investors chose to accentuate the positives of his proposed $1 trillion stimulus blitz and eliminate the negatives such as a potential global trade war.

However, Ms Brooks warns this may not last. “The president’s big test will come on February 28, when he addresses the US Congress. If he fails to deliver tremendous, even beautiful, plans on taxes and infrastructure spending then the bottom could easily fall out of the market.”

Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at Forex.com, says the era of easy monetary policy could be drawing to a close as the US Federal Reserve is turning hawkish and growth returns to Europe. “The fundamental backdrop is building up for US stocks to head for a sizeable correction – or a crash. However, the S&P 500 could still rise another 6 to 7 per cent before that.”

Mr Razaqzada says we might enjoy a final hurrah before then: “The bubble could get very large before it deflates or busts.”

James Carrick, global economist at Legal & General Investment Management, says if the Fed keeps interest rates too low for too long, it risks inflation taking off. “If it tightens too quickly, it could undermine corporate finances.”

He expects the Fed to hike rates two or three times this year, squeezing growth. “Our analysis suggests we are approaching the end of the economic cycle.”

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist and chief investment officer at Saxo Bank, says almost every traditional valuation measurement indicates that shares, bonds and property are “overbought”.

Worryingly, he thinks the Donald Trump “animal spirits” premium has made matters worse. “Any protectionist measures could wipe out the benefits of lower taxes and easier regulation.”

Mr Jakobsen says Mr Trump’s stimulus and protectionist plans will push up labour costs and import duties, and drive up inflation. “This could increase the risk of recession, which I put at 60 per cent likely in the next 18 months.”

If recession does strike, he warns that central bankers can no longer prop up the economy by cutting interest rates from today’s ultra-low levels.

He says it is possible for a number of major asset classes to crash at the same time. “Every asset has been driven upwards by extremely low monetary policy rates and this interconnection will eventually disappear.”

Mr Jakobsen says investors can protect themselves by reducing their exposure to riskier assets. “The excessive growth we have had since 2008 is likely to be replaced by a period with low to negative returns. Fixed income such as corporate bonds may offer some protection, as should commodities such as metals.”

As ever when it comes to economics, there are plenty of dissenting voices.

Gero Jung, chief economist at Swiss-based global wealth managers Mirabaud, says a sim­ultaneous slowdown in stock markets, bonds and property is unlikely. “We believe US growth will remain firm in the next 12 months, with European growth and Japanese activity also experiencing a cyclical upturn.”

Mr Jung says investors should keep risk assets in their portfolios. “Currently we favour US equities over European. On the fixed income side, we are more cautious relative to sovereign bond exposure, as we expect inflation – including in the US – to rise gradually. We are more positive on corporate bonds.”

Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity Personal Investing, says although it is theoretically possible for every asset class to crash at the same time, it would be highly unusual in practice. “Our research shows that over the last 20 years, there has not been a single year in which everything has fallen together.”

For example, after the dot.com bubble burst in 2001, US stocks fell 10 per cent and European and Japanese markets by more than 20 per cent.

However, the property market dipped only slightly, while cash and corporate bonds both rose, Mr Stevenson says. “Diversification will have smoothed the ride for investors, with cash and bonds offsetting some of the pain of equity and commodity falls.”

By contrast, 2005 was a boom year, with emerging markets up 50 per cent, Japanese equities up 40 per cent, and the US, UK and Europe up 20 per cent or more. “Corporate bonds, government bonds and cash also grew strongly, which means investors gained across the board.”

Investors can therefore protect themselves from market volatility by spreading their money across different assets, Mr Stevenson says. “Do not put all your eggs in one basket. A balanced portfolio split between equities, bonds, real estate, commodities and cash, really can help smooth investment returns and lead to better long-term outcomes for disciplined investors.”

This does not guarantee that you will come out on top year after year, but it does reduce volatility and risk. Mr Stevenson concludes: “This is really good news for a hands-off, long-term investor because it means that they can sensibly invest in a well- balanced portfolio and just forget about it.”

Sam Instone, chief executive at AES International, says instead of worrying about a crash you should heed the advice of legendary investor the billionaire Warren Buffett, who said “the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good”.

The truth is that nobody knows what will happen next, no matter how convincing pundits may sound, he adds. “Investors should ignore the noise about Trump, Brexit and whether property, bonds, infrastructure, commodities or equities are going to crash, surge, peak or correct. All too often experts are trying to scare investors into using their overpriced, underperforming investment plans,” Mr Instone says.

Instead of trying to time the market or worrying about short-term shifts in share prices, he says UAE-based investors should focus on building a balanced portfolio of low-charging investments for the long term.

In this respect, investing is changing for the better. “Low-cost index trackers such as exchange traded funds [ETFs] have replaced expensive, underperforming active funds and their overpaid, fortunetelling managers to deliver much better results,” he says, recommending that UAE expats invest in index funds or ETFs every month to get “far higher investment returns and far lower charges”.

If you invest monthly, rather than paying in big lump sums, you do not have to worry about short-term corrections either, Mr Instone adds.

In fact they can work in your favour through a process known as dollar-cost averaging. This means you actually benefit if markets fall, because you buy more stock with the same monthly payment, boosting your returns when markets recover.

“Your money will steadily compound over time, without the worry of market uncertainty in between,” Mr Instone adds.

pf@thenational.ae

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Source: The National

The danger of a crash landing in high-flying stocks, bonds and property was originally published on JMM Group of Companies