#but this first one is really just medicine (advanced version crash course)

[marrelica]

Things i am studying in my marine science program

Types and uses of antibiotics

Nuclear physics

6 types of chemistry

Human infections and patogenesis

History of the renessance

How to argue if a taxonomic category is real (depending if the prof belives it exist or no)

What are plants?

A HUNDRED MILLION INSECTS

Anatomy of the human body

MALARIA ×10000

"How does you eating chocolate affect the rain forest?" "Explain if you belive in paleolitic art and was it important for zoology?" "Explain why art is important" "Do you belive in evolution and name 3 theories"

Things i have not even heard us talk about

The sea

The ocean

Water that isn't in the cells

[trendyourway45-blog]

20 Inventions of all time.

Introduction

Since the time primordial man first picked up a rock and thwacked a scurrying rodent on its head to fix his dinner, mankind has always been inventing things. Improvising, innovating, crafting tools out of almost nothing to overcome the many difficulties of day-to-day life. Whether it was the rudimentary spear crafted by sharpening the end of a stick or much later a simple chair, inventions have shaped our very evolution.

Before you get worried we’ll assure you we’ve not gone that far back in time.

The inventions we’ve covered span core-science aeronautics, biology, physics, medicine, automobiles, electronics and of course technology. We’ve avoided things like “fire” or “the wheel” because quite frankly no one really knows how the former was discovered (not invented) and who invented the latter.

1.3D Printers

The 3D Printer is one of the greatest inventions of the 21st century allowing you to turn your ideas into real objects.

The latest Bond movie, Skyfall used a 3D printer from a German company called Voxeljet to produce three 1:3 scaled models of 007’s Aston Martin just to blow up during the movie!

What sounds like a really cool toy to have is actually used for some very serious operations. Let’s first understand how it works.

3D printing is achieved using an additive process in which successive layers of materials are laid out in different shapes. Cutting and drilling (also known as subtractive processes) are not involved at all making the process easy, efficient and highly suitable for prototyping.

The biggest consumer of the 3D Printer is the medical industry. So far it has produced prosthetics and bones and the ability to generate human

organs from these machines is currently being tried out. If this is managed, it could revolutionize medicine and completely obliterate the need for organ donation. Using a 3D printer in conjunction with CAT scans, surgeons can print out tumours so that they know exactly what they’re dealing with.

We’re sure you’re familiar with Pirate Bay, the file sharing company. It has launched a new content category called ‘Physibles’ i.e. data objects that can be made into physical products. 3D blueprints are uploaded and shared with those who want to print out the actual objects.

2. Airplane

The Wright brothers are given credit for the invention of the Airplane in 1903. The first flight lasted a little over 12 seconds at Kill Devil Hill, Northern Carolina. Since then, much progress has been made in the world of aviation. The sky wasn’t the limit here. War and sci-fi stories inspired great minds like Konstantin Tsiolkovsky and Werner von Braun to achieve flight beyond the atmosphere, making space travel a possibility.

The invention of the airplane sped up services in every single field starting with the postal service in 1920. World War II in 1939 kick-started developments in the aviation sector. Countries competed with each other to one-up the others’ sophisticated developments, with the British developing the airplanedetecting radar followed by the Germans developing radio wave navigation techniques. Fighter jets, advanced landing systems and high altitude aircrafts followed.

In 1947, US Air Force Pilot Captain Charles Yeager broke the sound barrier in the first supersonic flight becoming the fastest man alive.

Commercial flights started not long after and now, well, an airplane makes a landing somewhere around the world every three seconds!

Air travel is considered to be the safest form of travel in the world. A funny but true fact reveals that donkeys kill more people annually than plane crashes. Inspite of these phenomenal odds, 80% of the population of the world has Aerophobia, viz fear of flying. In some (5%) this fear is so intense that they abandon flights and opt for other modes of transport.

We’ve come a long way since 1903. In fact the wingspan of a Boeing 747 is longer than the Wright brothers’ first flight! The world today would be crippled without the discovery of flight. Businesses would crash, economies would slow down, worse still, holidays would be cancelled!

3.Artificial Intelligence

AI could be on either end of two extremes – man’s best invention or worst. In its best light, Artificial Intelligence would showcase robots, drones, machines serving us making daily life easier and more efficient or, as seen in movies, taking over the human race and entirely replacing the work force leading to unemployment, depression and general laziness.

The study of Artificial Intelligence formally began in Dartmouth College in 1956, as an effort by a group of research scientists to evaluate and mechanically replicate human intelligence. That is, they wanted to program machines to think and respond like humans. Their research was based on the assumption that a machine can be made to simulate learning, reasoning, logic and intelligence demonstrated by humans when given proper description and direction.

Every future invention by man will have its base in AI. Every invention will require an intelligently thinking bot to perform tasks faster and more efficiently than their human counterparts.

Essay grading software, weapons that have minds of their own, Siri by Apple, Kinect the 3D gaming interface, Watson by IBM – formerly a trivia expert machine now used to make decisions on lung cancer treatment and smart CCTVs that can identify crime as it happens: these are the varied and most advanced productions of AI.

4.Biometric Scanners

Biometrics – turning yourself into an identity card. No need for passwords, ids, pin numbers, etc. All you need is you. It’s a move from traditional access control systems to feature-based authentication that provides access based on physical presence rather than token (such as passport or drivers license) and knowledge based (password or PIN) methods.

With advancements in e-commerce and e-transactions, individuals have to retain a large number of passwords, PINs and identity cards. This number will only grow in size with passing time. Passwords and PINs are easy to crack by the right hacker, thus compromising your security. Biometrics couldn’t have come at a better time offering the ideal kind of security since no two fingerprints are alike.

The use of Biometric Scanners could unleash an era of super secure gadgets. It is already being used in cars programmed to operate only when a known driver is in the driver’s seat, weapons which fire only on detecting the owner’s fingerprints and smart household security systems that keep intruders out, among other applications. Not only fingerprints, facial scanning biometric devices are also not rare. Take the Samsung Galaxy S III for example. It has a Face Unlock feature which makes sure that only its owner can unlock the phone.

Fingerprint scanners are the cheapest and hence most commonly used biometric devices. Face and voice recognition follow, as iris and retinal scanning are concepts that most people find intrusive and are not too comfortable using.

The invention of Biometric Scanners was a big step into the future. They’ve led to the creation of the ultimate unique identifiers – those that cannot be forgotten, changed or lost.

5.Bluetooth

A wireless technology used to exchange data over short distances using short-wavelength radio transmission, Bluetooth was created by Ericsson in 1994 as an alternative to data cables. The term “Bluetooth” is an anglicized version of Blatand, the epithet of 10th century Danish king Harald who united separated Danish tribes into a single kingdom. The technology was named after him as Bluetooth does what Blatand did but with communications protocols – unites them into one universal standard.

Since its introduction, Bluetooth has increased in popularity over the years – while in 2008, only 5% of mobile devices were Bluetooth-enabled, in 2013, roughly 95% of mobile devices support it. Also, while traditional Bluetooth devices only worked within a range of 10 feet of each other the newest versions now enable transfers to a distance of up to 100 feet. However, what makes Bluetooth stand out as a form of wireless data transfer is that it uses very little power, can be incorporated into a wide variety of devices and can have up to eight devices communicating with each other at once and automatically without a user’s prompt.

Coming soon (15 more)

[adalhied-prime]

June/Optimus (for the drabble meme)

[ Ship Scenario Memes (Accepting) ]

Fake dating/married: This actually happens not long after June officially meets the ‘Bots. A man who does deliveries for the hospital has been hitting on June almost every time they cross paths, and he’s making her very uncomfortable. She ends up bringing this up while visiting the base (away from Jack’s hearing), and Optimus offers his assistance in the matter. Using his holoavatar, he pretends to be June’s boyfriend, in the hopes that the creeper will back off. 

Since the only person who really needs to be convinced is the delivery guy, things don’t change too much between the two at first. Optimus would take June to work and later pick her up a couple nights a week, they’d share small kisses on the cheek, and they come up with a backstory to tell June’s coworkers when they notice the attractive. Then one night, Optimus lets June vent about a rough week before taking her home, and next thing they know, they’re spending a couple hours a night just talking, either in the hospital parking lot, or outside the Darby house. And the affections seem to become easier and a bit more romantic. Optimus starts kissing the back of June’s hand, and sends her a bouquet of flowers to her nursing station. June picks up a book in the store because she thinks Optimus would like it, and leans into his side more often.

The delivery guy eventually backs off, but June and Optimus find they don’t want this to end and, after some discussion, decide to make their relationship official.

Bodyswap: Well, to say this is awkward is an understatement. A simple swap between species or gender would be odd enough, both at once being caused by a cybertronian relic is almost overkill. Optimus quickly calls for a leave of absence from the hospital, and stays at base to avoid anything that could cause an incident for June. June, on the other hand, can’t hide out in base for however long it takes to switch them back, so she gets a crash course in fighting, which she ends up being surprisingly good at it, if using a quite different style than Optimus’s. She’s not good enough to take on Megatron, but they luckily don’t have to fight him in that time. Optimus ends up spending most of his time helping Ratchet debug the computer systems and decrypt the Iacon database, as well as figuring out how to switch back. Optimus also has to deal with a period while in June’s body. He gains much personal respect for June and other human females. 

Telepathy: It’s a very odd, and not entirely welcome development. Both Optimus and June have high-stress jobs, and sometimes the only way to cope is to rant in their heads, which could be distracting for the other. That aside, when the other is feeling down, they will try be send encouraging thoughts to them. And the occasional naughty ones, as couples do.

OH NO only one bed at the hotel: Well, OP can’t exactly fit in a human hotel, and a cybertronian one would have plenty of room for June, but where the fun in that? AU where Optimus got turned human by whatever macguffen you want. He, of course, does the noble thing and sleeps on the floor, even at June’s insistence that they can share the bed like reasonable adults.

Accidental time-travel: They travel back to before the War and Optimus has to decide if he wants to warn Orion Pax of what’s to come or not. They do visit Alpha Trion, and he leaves some clues for past!Optimus to find to help lessen the War’s devastation, if not stop it.

Sexpollen/fuck or die/aliens made them do it: So, apparently cybertronian interface nanites act as an aphrodisiac in humans if breathed in. Who knew. Luckily, the outbreak happened while the children were at school and the team out scouting and Ratchet was able to contain it quickly. But that still left June to be taken care of, and Optimus volunteered to do so. Even using his holo, he tried to go slowly and gently, but June hadn’t been with a man since Jack’s dad, and she could tell it had been a while for Optimus too, so she quickly convinces him to let loose for the few hours they have. Afterwards, both are quite embarrassed and no one mentions it, but both do wonder how much of it was the nanites, and how much was something more.  

Dark!fic: June is a great ally to the Autobots, always listening and taking thorough notes when Ratchet teaches her about cybertronian medical science, and of course June promises to never reveal the information to someone who doesn’t know of their existence. So when she emails her notes out through an encrypted email, she’s obviously sending them to someone who does know. And Silas is very appreciative of the files, which greatly advanced Project Chimera’s progress beyond what could have been accomplished on their own.

June was telling the truth that it had just been her and Jack since his dad left. She just didn’t tell anyone that she had just been reunited with him. It was short, only a twenty minute van ride before she had to be knocked out, but it was enough to Silas to reaffirm to her that yes, he still loved her, and he was doing everything to make a better world for her and Jack, one where they could live as  royalty if they wished. He assured her she would be perfectly safe throughout the night, that his own men were ready to kill Airachnid if Jack couldn’t reach her, and that the Autobot would assist if she got free. And then he laid the plan for her help when Arcee did. 

Silas encouraged June to integrate herself into the bot’s lives, to learn everything she could about the Autobots. When June noticed Optimus seemed to have taken a liking to her, he pushed her to take advantage of it, for a leader in love is often a distracted leader. And when the time came, he would give the signal, and she would open the groundbridge, and when the children protested the deaths of the ‘Bots, she assured them it was for a better future, where they would all be happy. She felt a twinge of remorse when Optimus’s optics, filled with shock and betrayal, landed on her as he fell to Silas piloting Nemesis, but she pushed it down, confident in the knowledge this was the right thing, for her and her love.

It’s too bad she both overestimated Silas’s feelings for her, and underestimated the anger that could fill up a twelve year old when you murder the people he considers family right in front of him.

Their first kiss: It was an impulse, truly. June had been helping Ratchet give Optimus a check up, and they were just finishing up when they heard a crash in the main atrium and Ratchet went to investigate, leaving June to finish unhooking Optimus from the medical apparatus. The last one was on Optimus’s helm, so he lifted her up to get it. Then, as he started lowering her down, she kissed his faceplate, just off from his lips. He froze, and she turned away embarrassed, but he gently turned her back to him and carefully gave her a proper kiss in return. It was lucky they’d already unhooked the scanner, otherwise Ratchet would have gotten some odd readings that would have raised a few questions the two weren’t quite able to answer yet.

Meeting the parents: The closest thing Optimus had to a parent was Alpha Trion, who has been in the least MIA for millennia. Still, Optimus does show June holopics of him, and tells her stories, and if Alpha happened to leave a message about June in the Star Saber, well, Optimus isn’t going to say anything.

June’s mom and stepdad live in Boulder City, and first meet Optimus through a holoavatar. Gloria and Thomas Darby are ecstatic that their girl has a man in her life again, especially one as gentlemanly and handsome as Optimus. Even after finding out the truth, they fully support the couple, since after all, they were a mixed-race couple in the 70s, what’s an alien-human relationship to them?

Moving in together: This doesn’t happen until after the destruction of Outpost Omega One, and the subsequent fight against the Decepticons. Given her and Jack’s relationship with the ‘Bots, it was easy to get them quarters in the new base. Even with that, June often spends her nights in Optimus’s room. A sturdy scaffold was set up to hold a bedroom set and kitchenette, as well as a bathroom plumbed in. It’s a fairly easy transition to cohabitation, each of them understanding when the other needs company and when they need quiet. Most nights, she goes to sleep resting on Optimus’s (newly expanded) chestplate, listening to his sparkbeat. She has a much harder time falling asleep after the team returns to Cybertron.

Marriage and children: Take your choice of Human OP/Cybertronian June/Technorganic babies for this prompt! They have a sweet ceremony, getting it as close to just close friends and family as they can (Optimus is a dignitary after all, some bureaucrats are gonna find their way in). 

For children, they have anywhere between one and three. Roselight/Rose Alina is their oldest, who looks like a younger version of June as a human/holo, but with her father’s ears. As a cybertronian, she’s a seeker like her mother but with her father’s helm shape, and colored rosey-red with green and yellow highlights. She would be very interested in medicine, and want to be a nurse/medic when she grew up.

Their second child would be Mayflower/May, who is the opposite of Rose in appearance and temperment. She looks like Optimus as a bot and human, but has her mother’s skin tone, and her colors as a bot are green and white, with some red and blue accents. She turns into a truck, and is very much a fighter. She’d spend a lot of time with “Auntie” Miko and her Wrecker “Uncles”, and is always ready to defend her sibs, especially her brother.

Their third child would be a son, who, after some debate, they decide to name Megatronus/Michael. He looks just like Optimus as a human, and as a bot, he’s a seeker, but has a heavier build and Optimus’s colors. In a way though, this makes the weight of his name worse, as he knows what Megatron was, and doesn’t want that to come down on him. He’s very shy, does all he can to never lose his temper, and while he learns to fight with his sisters and is skilled, he is the most hesitent to use his abilities, always looking for a peaceful solution. 

A crossover of my choice: Inspired by skype convos with @crazyfanatic97, crossover with Five Night’s At Freddy’s, where Jack’s father was William Afton, who took their second son Michael with him when they divorced. Optimus and June get together, but drama and plot emerge when William tries to come back into their lives to get his hands on Jack for nefarious purposes. Possible appearances of Springtrap and other animatronics might also occur.

An AU of my choice: Post-Apocalypse AU, June is leading a band of women and children who just recently lost all the men to their “protectors” after refusing to hand over their “gifted” children. Optimus and Team Prime land on this version of Earth and June’s group is the first they come across. They make a deal to help each other, Optimus and the ‘Bots providing protection for the band, while June and the others of the band help the bots retrieve the cybertronian artifacts that drew the ‘Bots and ‘Cons to Earth. And along the way, between all the fighting, running the band, training the gifted children and whatnot, they happen to fall in love.

If you like, another trope/scenario of your choice: Soulmates AU where June and the kids are actually reincarnated cybertronians and find out their romantic and platonic soulmates are among the bots and cons. June would be reunited with her Platonic Ratchet, her Sparkmate Optimus, and their daughter Roselight after a relic is found that converts the humans back to their proper forms (though still allowing them to change back, like pretenders). (I am working on this AU, but the main focus of the fic is more on Miko/Megatron, so June/OP is more a background ship. but shush, my meme.)

[crackinstaller]

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[knowthewayblog-blog]

Be System Oriented and Achieve Great Success.

If you want to be successful in anything, you need a System. This is part 2 in a series based on Scott Adams’ book How to Fail at Almost Anything and Still Win Big. Click here for part 1 where I describe why Goals are for Losers and Systems are for Winners.

Here are 10 Tips to be a Winner

1. Apply a systems mindset instead of a goal mindset to everything you want to accomplish. For example: Losing twenty pounds is a goal, but eating right is a system. Running a marathon in under four hours is a goal, but exercising/running daily is a system. In business, making a million dollars is a goal, but being a serial entrepreneur (creating businesses over and over until one hits big) is a system. There are endless areas to apply a systems mindset. Many of my future blog posts and videos will be more detailed about specific systems anyone can follow for these things, but I’ll quickly go over some ideas:

Relationships - 1. Be healthy and fit - workout regularly 2. Be interesting - take up some hobbies, travel 3.  Learn to flirt - Talk to lots of girls or guys and figure out what works and what doesn’t. 4. Remember your goal is not to get a date or make the first person you talk to fall in love with you (Goals are for Losers). 5. Make it a systematic way of finding someone to spend time with, so rejection isn’t a big deal.

Exercise and Health - Do something active every single day - schedule it. I do push ups and pulls first thing in the morning, and run or do some quick Interval Training right when I get off work. Check out the 1 Minute Workout. For eating healthy get a calorie app or follow a simple meal plan. Atkins is a popular eating system that does work wonders for individuals or are very over-weight.

Online Businesses (YouTube, Podcasts, Mobile apps, Social Media) - Systematically create niche content and put it out there. That’s it. Don’t worry if it sucks at first and gets zero views. Keep at it, and you will get better and better and eventually something will Click.

Real estate investing - Buy property that needs work, fix it up, then rent it out or flip it and repeat. I recommend reading some books on the topic first, and be wary of seminars and investment schemes.

Stock investing - The simplest systems are long term and involve buying and holding a portfolio of solid fundamentally sound stocks for a number of years. "Value investing," is the hallmark of Warren Buffett. Another stock investing system is William O’Neil’s CANSLIM from best selling book How to Make Money in Stocks.

Career advancement - Scott gives an example of a gentleman he met on a flight who switched jobs systematically learning new things and advancing at each stop until he became CEO.

Money saving and management -  The envelope system -  Read Dave Ramsey’s, Total Money Makeover. The basic idea is keep budgeted cash in separate envelopes for different categories of your budget. It allows you to see exactly how much money you have left in a given category by the cash that remains on hand.  

2. Just google it.  We live in an age where you can instantly find a System for anything.  

3. Copy others. Tony Robbins said,

”If you want to be successful, find someone who has achieved the results you want and copy what they do and you'll achieve the same results.”

There’s no shame in copying what an already successful person did.   Two of the best channels for personal development, Fight Mediocrity and Practical Psychology inspired this channel.

4. K.I.S.S.  no not the band... Keep It Simple Stupid. Simple Systems are best. You can optimize later after some success, but Keep It Simple Stupid  is the clearest route to succeed. Optimizing might allow you to complete several urgent tasks on the way to another but optimizing is often also complicating which makes things exhausting and stress inducing. Complicated systems also have more opportunities for bugs or errors. In a computer program a bug can either create unwanted results, or completely crash the system. Complicated programs have more bugs and take longer to fix if a system crashes. Simple programs hardly if ever crash and if there is an error, it is easy to find and fix.

Simplification frees up energy, making everything else you do a little bit easier. You are more likely to do something that is simple, and more likely to put off or never do something that is complicated.

5. "Every skill you acquire doubles your odds of success." Scott Adams discusses the idea of a "Talent Stack" often is his blog. You don’t have to master everything to get a benefit, often a working knowledge by reading a book, or watching a YouTube video is all you need.

Here are some skills that apply to everyone. How to Fail... goes into more detail for each one, so I’ll just mention them here.

Public speaking

Proper voice technique

Psychology

Persuasion

Business writing

Accounting

Conversation

A Second language

Golf

Technology

Design

If you become merely good in most of these areas, there’s a good chance you will be successful.

6.  "The More You Know, the More You Can Know". That is Scott Adams’ Knowledge Formula. The more concepts you understand, the easier it is to learn new ones.  Think of learning as a system in which you continually expose yourself to new topics, primarily the ones you find interesting.

7. Don’t confuse the benefits of persistence with the actual odds of succeeding. The Dilbert Guy says,

The minimum requirement of a system is that a reasonable person expects it to work more often than not. Buying lottery tickets no matter how regularly you do it is not a system.

The odds of hitting the jackpot are too high to be worth it.   Odds and luck, however, are important ideas that we’ll discuss another time.  

8. Passion Is (mostly) Bullshit. We hear all the time that Passion in what you do is key to succeed. But

"It’s easy to be passionate about things that are working out. That distorts our impression of the importance of passion. Passion fades as a venture you were initially passionate about Fails."

But the excitement and passion increase for the ventures that succeed. We also enjoy things we’re good at. And tend NOT to enjoy the things we suck at. For instance, Now that I am fairly good at solving the Rubik’s cube I really enjoy doing it. I mix it up and resolve it a couple times a day now. People who can’t solve one often say I hate those things.

"A great strategy for success in life is to become good at something, anything, and let that feeling propel you to new and better victories."

Success can be habit-forming.  Cal Newport's best selling book So Good They Can't Ignore You, also maintains that passion is overrated.

9. Energy is more important than passion

Personal energy is anything that gives you a positive lift, either mentally or physically.

Our personal supply of energy is limited so we need to manage that energy carefully. Being healthy and fit and happy is key to having energy. Success takes energy. Energy to overcome obstacles, energy to continue trying when we fail. Without being healthy and fit it’s nearly impossible to get the positive mental and physical lifts we need to succeed. That makes Good health a baseline requirement for success.

The concept of Qi (ch’i) found throughout Asian cultures translates as "material energy", "life force", or "energy flow". It is the central underlying principle in traditional Chinese medicine and martial arts. This is the symbol for Qi

氣

 Fun fact - I got that tattooed on my arm when I was 19. Qi is said to permeate everything and links our surroundings together. It is the flow of energy around and through the body, forming a cohesive and functioning unit. Qi is necessary to activity and it can be controlled by a well-integrated willpower. When properly nurtured, Qi is capable of extending beyond the human body to reach throughout the universe. When it accumulates there is life. When it dissipates there is death... It can be strengthened through meditation, practicing martial arts, yoga, exercise and eating right. Acupuncture is used to treat many ailments, its purpose is to fix the flow of Qi through the body.  I’m not super spiritual but the idea of an energy force that I control is useful. Obviously Qi isn’t a scientific concept and most medical professionals will tell you that chinese medicine and acupuncture are bullshit. Some people might think it’s stupid, and that’s ok. None of that matters when it comes to your personal energy. If an idea works to help you feel more energetic, gives you a positive lift, either mentally or physically, and helps you be successful, than why not go with it. Some people get energy from listening to music or singing, some from a massage, some people get energy from church or meditation. Whatever it is you get energy from who am I to judge? Except Drugs. Drugs are Bad Kids. Don’t Do Drugs. Seriously.

10. A flawed system is ok as long as you’re moving in the right direction. Nobody starts out with a perfect plan or system. If the system doesn’t seem to be moving you in the right direction, change one part of the system. If you change multiple parts at once you won’t know which worked or which caused the catastrophic failure. I realize the “right direction” is vague and you won’t always know which direction you are headed and whether to stay the course or not. Scott Adams says

“One predictor for success is that customers clamor for the bad versions of a product before the good versions are even invented. Consider the iPhone. The first version was a mess, yet it was greeted with an almost feverish enthusiasm. That enthusiasm, and the enormous sales that followed, funded improvements until the product became superb. The smartest way to discern your best path to success is to try lots of different things. For entrepreneurial ventures it might mean quickly bailing out if things don’t come together quickly.”

For some endeavors I think the best path comes down to gut feeling and your tolerance for risk. For other endeavors, there is no wrong direction or path as long as you’re moving.  

If you enjoyed this or got a little bit of value out of it, it would be awesome if you hit that Like button.

And if you want to see more please subscribe. In the next one... The next Key to Succeed - Failure is actually a good thing.

[heliosfinance]

The Ultimate Game of Economics

Have you heard about the ultimate game of economics? Here’s how it goes.

A person – let’s call him proposer – is given a hundred bucks and asked to split the money with a stranger, called responder. The split doesn’t need to be equal. Proposer could split it 50-50 or he could even keep 90 for himself and offer 10 to the stranger. But the condition is that if the responder rejects the offer, none of them get any money.

If you were the responder, at what split ratio would you accept the offer?

50-50? Most people would consider that fair. But is it rational?

What if you didn’t know about the total sum involved in the deal and you’re told only about the amount that proposer offers you? Isn’t it like a free money, something that you found lying on the street. Why would you reject even 5 bucks that way?

But that’s not how humans think. Right?

The knowledge that someone else got a better deal (at our cost) makes us humans feel cheated.

“Not fair,” we cry. “How dare the proposer offer less than 50 to me?”

Some would even argue that the proposer should keep less than 50 for himself and offer more to the responder.

The ultimate Game of economics isn’t something that I have coined myself. Wikipedia mentions –

When carried out between members of a shared social group (e.g., a village, a tribe, a nation, humanity) people offer “fair” (i.e., 50:50) splits, and offers of less than 30% are often rejected.

But how exactly do we define what’s fair? Here’s another hypothetical situation. I have taken this example from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s post –

You are in charge of running a retail store and one of your cashiers, an elderly woman, is caught committing a minor embezzlement. Fearing that she might be dismissed, she approaches you to plead forgiveness. She tells you that this is the first time she embezzled money from the company and promises that she’ll never do it again. She tells you about her sad situation, namely that her husband is very ill and that she was going to use the money to buy medicines for him. She becomes extremely emotional and your heart is melting. What do you do?

There’s no right or wrong answer here. It’s an open-ended question and how you think about it is more important than what you decide to do in the end. Prof Bakshi writes –

The possible actions are: (1) She is lying and you fire her (good outcome – because it cures the problem and sends the right signals); (2) She is telling the truth and you fire her (bad outcome for her but good outcome for system integrity); (3) She is lying and you pardon her (bad outcome for system integrity); and (4) She is telling the truth and you pardon her (bad outcome for system integrity because it will send the wrong signal that it’s ok to embezzle once).

What’s fair to the elderly lady may not necessarily be fair to the larger system or the society. Prof Bakshi has termed this mental model as the “law of higher good.” So one way to solve this problem is to make a decision based on what’s good for the larger group of people i.e. the people in the organization. Of course, this course of action assumes that your decision will lead to a good outcome for the larger system, which again may not be true.

Devdutt Pattanaik, a medical doctor turned mythologist, in his book How To Take Decisions, writes –

At the time of action, our decision is based on a set of assumptions. The assumptions may be wrong. Leaders have to constantly deal with uncertainty, give hope to the people even when nothing is clear. Decisions become good or bad in hindsight. We would like to believe that a decision is rational. More often than not, decisions are rationalized.

Now the question of fairness leads us to a bigger and even more interesting conundrum. It’s about morality.

For centuries, the trolley problem has troubled the philosophers.

A trolley with no brakes is cruising at a dangerous speed on its track. Few hundred meters down the same track five people are working, unaware of the oncoming trolley. Fortunately, you are sitting in the control room and can see the precarious situation. You can save those five lives by pulling a lever which will send the trolley on a different track. But doing so will ensure the death of another guy who is working alone the second track. Should you kill the one to save five?

Most people say, that they would pull the lever and save five lives at the cost of one. Fair enough. But here’s a little twist in the tale. Now imagine you’re standing on a footbridge above the track and can see the trolley hurtling towards those five people. There’s a fat man standing next to you, and you know that his weight would be enough to stop the trolley. Would you push that fat guy while the trolley is passing through the footbridge? Effectively, it’s the same situation. Just that, now you have to push a guy instead of pulling a lever.

A real moral dilemma. Isn’t it? There’s even a book on this particular problem called Would You Kill the Fat Man?

Now you might think that it’s a purely hypothetical question which armchair philosophers have created for their own amusement. Not really. This problem is perhaps giving sleepless nights to Elon Musk these days.

Imagine you’re out on a long drive in your brand new self-driving car. A Tesla maybe. The car is gliding on a deserted mountain road. All of a sudden, a group of cyclists appear from nowhere. The car-software, supposedly powered by an advanced artificial intelligence, does a few million complex calculations in a couple of microseconds and determines that collision is inevitable unless the car takes a sharp turn towards the right and plunges several hundred feet down the hill, killing the passenger. What would the car do?

It’ll probably depend on how Mr. Musk chose to address the trolley problem. Or maybe it’ll boil down to a much simpler problem i.e. what version of the software have you bought for your autonomous car. Is it the cheaper altruistic version? Or is it the selfish one for which you had to pay an exorbitant price?

We started this discussion with the ultimate game of economics and then drifted off to the subjects of fairness and morality. How’s all this related to investing?

Let’s say you spend months together in researching a stock. You read all the annual reports of the past year, you crunch the numbers, you attend the AGM and study the conference call transcripts diligently. After all this hard work you decide to invest in the business only to find out a few months later that the stock crashes because of a change in certain government regulation which negatively impacted the businesses. Is it fair?

In this situation, if you harp on the question of fairness you may lose more money as the stock continues its downward journey while you are shaking your head in utter disbelief and crying, “It’s not fair.”

Peter Lynch said, “In this business, if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.”

That’s why you need diversification. If you have 15-20 stocks in your portfolio, you don’t need to make money on each of them. In investing, you don’t have to make the money the same way you lost it.

Extending the “law of higher good” mental model in this scenario would mean ensuring a positive outcome at the portfolio level and not getting disheartened about few losers.

Let’s talk about morality and investing.

Should you invest in a business that manufactures tobacco products? How about investing in a company that sells alcohol? These products are harmful to the society so isn’t it unethical to promote these businesses? But scientists have proved that even sugar is very harmful too. Should you then reject the businesses that use sugar in their products? If yes, then you’ll have to filter out almost all the businesses selling packaged foods.

It’s a very difficult question. And the answer is very subjective. Call it the investing version of the trolley problem. By the way, if you haven’t watched Harvard Professor Michale Sandel’s lecture – Moral Side of the Murder – you must watch it as soon as you’re done reading this post.

Coming back to the proposer-responder game, it’s not just the ultimate game of economics but the ultimate game of life. How should one deal with seemingly unfair situations in life? Should we fight for our fair share? Or we should move on?

Image Source: Dilbert.com

My intention in this discussion is to nudge you to think about these paradoxes of fairness and morality in the context of your own life and the decision that you’ve made or are going to make in future.

And while you do that let me go and find that scientist who would like to play the ultimate game of economics with me. It would be a good opportunity to make few easy bucks.

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[thelmabeaver]

The Ultimate Family Road Trip Guide

The Ultimate Family Road Trip Guide

Nothing strikes fear into a parent quicker or more fiercely than the words “are we nearly there yet?”, fifteen minutes into a four-hour car journey. That phrase starts a whole litany of complaints from “he looked at me funny” to “I need a wee” (five minutes after you passed a motorway service station where they were SUPPOSED to have a tinkle).

There are two ways to approach the idea of a family road trip with children, one with hysterical laughter and the promise to never, ever attempt such a feat or with some pre-planning which could actually turn the travel portion of the trip into a fun extension of the holiday (yes, really!).

Our ultimate family road trip guide breaks down everything you need to remember to take or do when going on a road trip, some handy hints and tips for keeping the kids occupied and helps you plan in advance for things such as car breakdowns.

Plan Your Route

The very first thing you need to do when planning a road trip is to plan the route. While it might be tempting to go straight from your home/base to your destination it might be worth making a few detours along the way. Look at where service stations or rest stops are between here and there and plan your trip accordingly. You may be able to go for four hours with a wee, a nappy change or a run around on the grass however your children probably won’t.

Take into account areas that are known for being congested, difficult to navigate and take a paper map, just in case your trusty GPS app or Sat Nav fails half way there. It might also be worth considering the time you will be travelling. Depending on where you are going, why not consider driving overnight? This way the children are much more likely to sleep through the journey, it will be less congested and could make all the difference to the journey. If you aren’t confident driving at night or for logistic reasons this isn’t the best option, don’t worry, we have plenty more nuggets to help you survive travelling with the kids.

Car Maintenance

Before any car journey, but particularly before any long journey make sure you have enough air in the tyres, water and oil, petrol and that everything is ship-shape. This is the best way to ensure that you avoid a breakdown.

The Breakdown Box

Despite our best efforts (see above) sometimes, and usually at the most inconvenient times, our car breaks down. If you have children in the back this could turn into the road trip from hell if you aren’t prepared. Don’t take chances, make sure you pack the following in a breakdown box for emergencies (as well as the usual car gear such as a warning triangle, spare tyre etc, and all the other car-related things you should have in place).

Water – The more the better, who knows how long you may be waiting in the heat for a tow truck or mechanic?

Snacks – Extra snacks are ideal as again, you don’t know how long you may need to wait for help.

Something Cool to Occupy the Kids – Children sat on a bank awaiting pick-up or stuck in a car that isn’t moving are going to get crabby FAST. Make sure you pack something new and interesting to keep them occupied and stave off boredom whether it is daytime or the middle of the night.​

All-Weather Gear – If you break down on the side of the motorway the current advice is, if it is safe, to exit the car (from the opposite doors to the traffic) and move away from the road a safe distance. If you’ve broken down on your way to your holidays the chances are luck has already abandoned you, so you could well be going out into very hot weather or even rain. Make sure you have something to keep everyone dry and cool as well as appropriate footwear.​

Medication – If any of your party take regular medicines it would be wise to pack a few doses in the emergency box which should be easy to grab and leave with as you may not have time to go through luggage for the things that you need.​

A Torch – If you get stranded at night this could be useful.​

High Visibility Wear – These waistcoats and similar are perfect to throw over clothes to ensure you are visible at night and relatively inexpensive.​

Coinage – You may not be able to get a mobile phone signal or have enough battery to call for help and so money for a telephone box could be useful (as could having the details of your breakdown company written down rather than simply stored on your phone).​

These are the very basic items that should be in a breakdown box; add anything else you might feel will help promote safety or help keep everyone happy during the wait.​

Be Climate / Weather Aware

Did you know that you can still get sun-burnt in a car? Well you can! Make sure that everyone has sun cream on and that shades are in place for the children. Also consider how hot the car is or will become and make sure that everyone has enough water to keep them properly hydrated.

Travel Sickness

Horrible for the parents and not too fun for the children, travel sickness can be a real pain when it comes to family road trips. Thankfully there are a number of ways to manage travel sickness. Each child is different so it pays to be prepared and indulge in some trial and error in advance. Some parents swear by travel wrist bands that are commonly available, some say small and regular snacks and sips of water help, some say visit the pharmacist to ask for age-appropriate travel sickness tablets and others say travel at night and when the little darling are asleep.

We say try all of these to see what works and also remember to take regular breaks for fresh air, keep the car cool and make sure you have sick bags and a clean-up bucket “just in case”. Hopefully you won’t need it however it pays to be prepared.

Keeping Children Occupied

The best way to start your holiday is with a car full of children who get louder by the minute and who alternate between that fun whining “I’m bored” stance and constant shrill bickering, right? If you want to get to the end of the journey with your nerves and temper intact you need to find a way to keep the darlings happy (we don’t want them to be upset and dislike the travel time either).

In-car games are a great way to keeps children active, for example Knock Knock Ding a Ling. If someone sees a post box they call out Knock Knock, if they see a telephone box…. You get the gist. Do some advance research on in-car spotting games and easy activities that you may rotate throughout the journey.

DVD players that travel are quite easily the best invention ever made when it comes to travelling with kids. Invest in some earphones for your child/children and let them concentrate on a favourite movie or similar. If you have one DVD player and two or more children opt for shorter videos and make sure they take it in turns to choose what to play next.

Paper games are great for breaking up the monotony and there are so many to choose from. Popular versions include noughts and crosses and Hangman however with a little research we’re sure you could come up with a lot more.

Digital fun and reading also pass the time however consider battery-life time, how long you want them playing on games and also whether this type of activity or reading will contribute to travel sickness (it does for some).​

Music / Audio Books

Singalongs are great fun (especially when they get to choose the music) and of course making up silly alternative words to favourite songs is a must. Audio books are better suited to quiet time as your little ones will have to be quiet, sit still and listen if you they want to hear the story. Even little tots enjoy audio books and they can be great as a wind-down activity for when you want your little ones to take a nap.

As long as you have enough activities and toys and are able to rotate them throughout the journey you should hopefully have the “keep the kids happy” box checked.

**Top Tip: Those over-seat activity holders you see that allows children to get their own toys and games out and have everything to hand are brilliant, particularly if there is no-one else (not driving) to help get things out, open them, pass them around etc.​

Food and Drink

Snacks and drinks not only keep people well and hydrated, they break up the monotony of a road trip. Choose snacks and meals that are healthy, fun, something special. Do remember to ensure that they aren’t too messy or will get icky in the heat of the car.

Hydration is important in a hot car, as is remembering to plan your route to include plenty of rest stops! If you are stopping for a meal somewhere on the way try to avoid foods that will be too heavy on the stomach or too strong / spicy as this will contribute to the likelihood of car sickness. Also try and avoid very sugary foods and drinks as while your children’s high as a kite cheer might be fun to start with, the inevitable crash and burn mood-change that comes soon afterwards is less so!

**Top Tip: Don’t let the kids be in charge of the snack box! Do so and it’ll be empty in ten minutes and everyone will look a little green about the gills (whether they normally suffer with travel sickness or not).

In Summary

When it comes to taking a road trip, particularly a reasonably long journey with children, you can either have a hideously fraught journey or a surprisingly pleasant one. Which one you’ll enjoy or endure comes down to the amount of planning you do in advance. Go back through this guide with your particular family needs in mind and make sure that you have everything you need (and that they could possibly want) organised in advance.

After that all you need to do is concentrate on having a wonderful trip!​

Originally posted 2016-07-21 01:20:36.

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