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tarhalindur · 4 years ago

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Running through the solution space for Watadamashi-hen

With Watadamashi-hen in the books and the obvious and traditional remaining question of “whodunnit?” in everyone’s heads, methinks it would be useful to see if there’s anything we can lock down for sure as constraints on possible solutions. (Or, seeing as we’re in Gou’s version of the question arc that focuses the most on the local yakuza clan, perhaps a (forum) Mafia phrasing would be more appropriate: who is still in the PoE/Process of Elimination, and who is out of it?)

Here’s what I’ve got, under the cut:

- I do not believe we have quite enough information to say anything definitive about which sister Sonozaki is which during this arc. There’s two big questions here, and both are mostly related to the backstory: did the tattoo incident happen in the backstory as usual, and why is information about Satoshi so scarce this time around? And both of those in turn boil down to a single issue: the level 0 answer for Watadamashi-hen (or perhaps more accurately level 3 -> level 0) is that Shion is responsible for at least some of the deaths as usual, but if that’s actually Shion during episode 8 then her behavior towards Keiichi here (especially the confession in the last episode) is hard to square with her devotion to Satoshi’s memory in OG. So the obvious questions: 1) did something happen in the backstory to switch which twin has the personality traits likely to drive L5, and 2) is there an easy explanation for why a Shion-born-Mion wouldn’t be as attached to Satoshi this time around?

The one thing I do suspect is that we only see one of the twins in Gou episode 5. (The question is which - present!Shion impersonating her sister for the game tournament, or present!Mion impersonating her sister for the rest of the episode? Leaning the former, but that’s not guaranteed.)

(Note: One of the theories going around is that the ending credits spoil which twin(s) are present in which episode of this arc. I believe this is possible but doesn’t actually tell us much even if so? The only conclusion that would give me that I wouldn‘t have arrived at anyways is that only one sister Sonozaki shows up during Episode 8 - that would rule out worlds where one of Mion/Shion is attending school at the start of the episode and then dies no later than Keiichi meeting kimono!Mion. Other than that, as I just noted I’m leaning towards only one twin being present in episode 5 anyways, and everything else including which twin is in 5 is potentially drowned in “yes, I told you it was Mion, but did I mean Mion now or Mion by birth?” unless the tattoo incident never happened and Mion was born Mion... and in that case Mion is the prohibitive favorite for being a culprit anyways because the reasons Mion never goes L5 in OG would now apply to Shion instead, so once again it would just be confirming things I would have already suspected!)

- For each of Oryou, Kiichirou, and {Shion, Mion}, at some point, somebody had access to both their dead bodies and the Sonozaki disposal well.

This is more restrictive than it looks. There’s really only four groups of people with even potential access to the well: a member of the Sonozaki family, another member of the Club (who could get Mion’s help, wittingly [ala Tsumihoroboshi-hen] or otherwise [Tatarigoroshi-hen]), the Yamainu (courtesy of their raiding the residence), or the police. Of those, the only people who don’t have severe issues wrt opportunity for both the Oryou and Kiichirou murders are the Sonozakis and Rika (who might have been able to use her position as last surviving member of the third gosanke to set up a suitable opportunity to kill both of them if she went L5 or a Bern personality came out to play), and IIRC the sisters Sonozaki are the only Sonozakis with screen time while alive this arc.

The most likely permutation here is that the obvious inference from OG holds: one or both of the twins are responsible for all three of those deaths in some combination. Looking it over... I think the second most likely possibility may actually be that the Mion who was at school during episode 8 was telling the actual truth about Rika? (#FeelTheBern)

- Whoever killed kimono!Shmion and Satoko had access to firearms, given both the death pose and the reported gunshot.

This is actually quite the restriction on possible culprits, as AFAICT there are only three groups in Hinamizawa with even potential access to firearms: the Sonozakis, the Yamainu (technically there’s also other Tokyo groups like the Banken, but only the Yamainu show up on screen this arc), and possibly the police. (Caveat: if kimono!Mion’s gun is real, then it is possible that the culprit here successfully wrested the gun away from her and then shot her with it.) (I wonder: is there any clear indication in the original Japanese about whether the officers who heard the gunshot heard only one shot or more than one? I know Japanese often lacks formal singular/plural distinctions, so quite possibly not.) I am heavily inclined to suspect the Yamainu here - I do not trust Keiichi’s viewpoint wrt Mion’s “revolver”, especially with the mismatch with the gun seen by the dead bodies, and if the shot of Shmion’s and Satoko’s body is to be believed the position of the nominal murder weapon looks really off for a murder-suicide. (Also, they’re still on the short list of people with obvious motive to kill Satoko - if the clinic is once again “renovating” and that’s a cover for shutting down, they could be cleaning up loose ends.)

(Note: The apparent scratches on the neck of kimono!Mion’s dead body are quite interesting, because we get a clear view of that side of her neck during the confession scene and at that point there is *no sign* of said scratches! Now, it’s possible Keiichi was hallucinating the lack of scratches, but that’s rather atypical for late-stage HS hallucinations; otherwise, those scratches must have been infliced during the events leading up to kimono!Mion’s death.)

- Whoever killed Rika was either making a delayed statement and/or did not have immediate access to either the Sonozaki disposal well or the Yamainu’s resources.

This one is pretty simple. The school septic tank is a pretty shitty place to hide Rika’s body (pun intended after the fact) - after all, only {Mion/Shion} calling Keiichi away at the last moment prevents him from finding the body within at most a few hours of Rika being reported missing![1] It’s certainly inferior to either the well (where the police only ever get to look in scenarios where Mion, Shion, and Oryou all die; Teppei’s body is quite secure there every time its gets moved to the well in OG arcs) or where the Yamainu would hide the body (people killed in the GHD coverup as opposed to the main event stay missing - both police officers shot on the road and villagers trying to escape into the hills). Now, it’s possible that just like in certain OG arcs the reason Rika’s body is in such a findable place is because someone is making a statement and never intended for the body to remain hidden forever, especially if they wanted the body to stay hidden just long enough to get clear first - AIUI finding a miko’s body in a tank full of human waste would be a bit of a statement given Shinto ritual cleanliness, even/especially given certain features of local Hinamizawa practice (IIRC you could find some vaguely Western analogues in some of the ways Orthodox priests were executed during the Russian Civil War). (This probably applies at the meta level regardless, especially given that Gou translates as karma.) If it’s not a statement, however, then the only reason to put Rika’s body there instead of a more secure location is because the better locations weren’t an option (which, in turn, could be either because there wasn’t time/opportunity to move the body to one of the better locations or because the killer just didn’t have access to such locations).

[1] - I’m not sure how incriminating that is for whichever of {Mion/Shion} was at school at the time. Coincidence is a very really possibility there, absolutely no reason to think it can’t be when that kind of thing is de riguer for detective story red herrings.

Piecing it together, here’s what I’ve got:

Culprit 1: Responsible for the deaths of Oryou Sonozaki and Kiichirou Kimiyoshi. Likely candidates: birth!Mion, then Rika and birth!Shion in some order (the last probably gates around Oryou crossing one of birth!Shion’s red lines, although something involving fallout from no tattoo incident is also possible). Corner case candidates: the Yamainu, a different club member, the police.

Culprit 2: Responsible for the death of the “Shion” found in the well. Can be the same as Culprit 1. Probably the other Sonozaki twin, assuming that the lack of apparent marks on the body holds and noting that self-defense is a possible motive (or technically suicide + someone else disposing of the body). Corner case candidates are once again the Yamainu and the police (but why throw “Shion’s” body into the well but not “Mion’s”?),

Culprit 3: Responsible for the death of Rika Furude (or at least for moving her body to the septic tank - I suppose it’s technically possible that Rika left the stage on her own ala Meakashi-hen). Likely candidates: Satoko, birth!Mion (iff the septic tank was a temporary solution until she could safely move the body to the well), Miyo Takano/Jirou Tomitake (iff one or both is still in town after all, assumes Takano no longer has Yamainu support). Notable corner cases: Rena, birth!Shion (self-defense? plus birth!Mion caveat). Other corner cases: Keiichi (iff unreliable narrator manifests as him killing Rika offscreen, which is unlikely but possible), someone else around school (Chie-sensei after Rika insulted curry?), the police. Probably not the Yamainu; they might have motive but I find it hard to believe they’d leave Rika’s body where it was.

Culprit 4: Responsible for the death of Satoko Hojo. Not necssarily also Culprit 5, depending on exact events (the notable world here is “kimono!Mion kills Satoko and is then killed by the Yamainu in turn”). Likely candidates: kimono!Mion and the Yamainu, in some order (kimono!Mion has self-defense as a possible motive given those scratches). Less likely: Satoko herself (suicide). Corner cases: the police, Rena (if she somehow dodged the security cams or Keiichi was hallucinating those), Takano/Tomitake (likewise). Alibi’d: Rika (dead), Keiichi (in the cell).

Culprit 5: Responsible for the death of kimono!Mion. Likely candidates: the Yamainu, followed closely by kimono!Mion (suicide) and Satoko in some order. Corner cases: the police, Rena, Takano/Tomitake. Alibi’d: Rika (dead), Keiichi (in the cell).

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