#bit of a hurdle at first since it's considered a 'wealthy' country

[dragonphage]

started playing Plague.inc. and yeah that’s fun

[news-mashable-yahoopartner-blog]

Should Oprah run for president? Here's what political experts think.

President Oprah Winfrey. That's all the internet could shout last night, it seemed. But in the cold light of day, is that actually what we want?

After Oprah accepted the Cecil B. DeMille award at the Golden Globes for "outstanding contributions to the world of entertainment," she gave a barn burner of a speech that had the crowd on its feet applauding. It was a sweeping speech that tackled the visibility of women and shed the light on underrepresented populations. 

It also sounded a whole hell of a lot like a speech to kick off a presidential run. 

SEE ALSO: Oprah's Golden Globes speech was the emotional call to action America needs

It may have brought tears to many eyes and tweets to many timelines, but political operatives and experts that have intimate knowledge of what it takes to mount a campaign still have many questions.

"What the heck does Oprah believe in?" Kenneth Pennington, the former digital director for Bernie Sanders' campaign said. "Does Oprah support Medicare for all? Does Oprah support an end to unjust foreign wars? Does Oprah support a massive redistribution of wealth from the monied elites to the bottom 98%? These are the questions that the media and voters should be asking."

Questions like these have been circling Oprah for well over a year as a nation speculates which celebrity would follow President Trump into seeking the top executive office.

To many, Oprah has been seen as a front runner for this role. She has the resources, the star power, the good will, and long-running vocal support for social justice.

Back in March of 2017, Oprah spoke with Bloomberg's David Rubenstein and seemed to imply that Trump's success made her mull over the possibility of running for president. Then, in September, she praised New York Post's John Podhoretz for calling her "Democrats' best hope in 2020."

But hold your horses there, bucko. Because she's also sworn as recently as last July on a podcast with the Hollywood Reporter, that she won't run for office. 

It's a shame, because she's pretty popular. 

Q Scores, an analytical firm which measures the impact brands and celebrities has on consumers, most recently looked at Oprah's reach in September 2017.

"She has an 86 percent awareness rating, which is a huge number," Executive Vice President Henry Schafer said of the amount of American people familiar with Oprah. "The average celebrity has around a 36 percent awareness rating. It kind of peaked with her talk show and it's been holding steady ever since."

Awareness is one thing (it's no surprise that many people know her name after all these years), but people also generally like her.

"She currently has a 23 percent positive Q Score, which is still pretty strong," he said, comparing it to the average of 17 percent for other celebrities.

Not only that, but positive vibes towards Oprah get stronger as people age — even across genders. 

"The older the female, the stronger the appeal," Schafer said. "And the same with men. The older you get, the more you like her."

That has interesting implications for a hypothetical Trump v. Oprah election cycle. In the 2016 election, Trump won the majority of voters aged 40 and up. 

Since Q Scores doesn't measure the consumer impact of politicians, the last time that the firm measured Donald Trump was in January 2015. He had a 78 percent awareness rating (below her 86 percent), and a positivity rating of only 7 percent. 

SEE ALSO: There's a must-watch documentary about Recy Taylor, the woman Oprah shouted out in Globes speech

In many ways, Oprah's measurements are probably what you'd expect. She skewed favorably towards urban dwellers, white collar professionals, African Americans, suburbanites, and those with higher education. If you think that sounds kind of like the opposite of Donald Trump, you're right. 

"Her profile is diametrically opposed to Trump," Schafer said. "At least for now."

These Q Score measurements are backed up by polling. Last March, Public Policy Polling conducted research that showed Oprah would fare well against a electoral bout with Trump. Their results showed that "Oprah Winfrey has a 49 percent for 33 percent against favorability rating nationally and would lead Donald Trump 47-40 in a hypothetical 2020 Presidential contest."

But it (hopefully) takes more than popularity to become president.

Oprah Winfrey's speech embodied the best traditions of American oratory. It rang with moral clarity rooted in a march towards justice. Not blind to the distance we have traveled and the distance yet to go. It inspired - but cautioned progress will take work. This is #WhatUnitesUs

— Dan Rather (@DanRather) January 8, 2018

Speculation can go back and forth about what fundraising tactics she would marshal and who would be her running mate, but everyone we talked to seemed focused on strategy. 

"The biggest thing is let Oprah be who she is. Let her be loud. Let her be over the top. Especially with middle class women, it will light them on fire," Republican media consultant Rory McShane said.

He saw two paths of victory for Oprah. 

"She can either soften her image to make her more palatable to suburban folks," he said, pointing out that she would hypothetically then have to fight with Trump for those voters. "Or she can take the Bernie Sanders route, the Elizabeth Warren route, and focus on minorities. There, all she has to do is galvanize that base of people, and she wouldn't have to fight Trump over it."

"An Oprah campaign weakness would be her decades of inspirational speaking in the self-help realm" Pennington said. "They know that the institutions and systems of this country are stacked against them, and they want to hear from candidates about how they’ll address systemic corruption and injustice. Let me be clear — Oprah or any other candidate can address these problems. But if you’ve been in the public light for decades and have yet to make that a central part of your communications, it’s harder."

Additionally, some see her as a bit of a polarizing figure; when Schafer spoke about her Q Score, he  said she tends to "stir the pot." For her to potentially succeed, the experts we talked to spoke about how she would need a united message to get the votes. And for someone that American's tend to love, there's already a large amount of antagonism out there towards her.

OPRAH She'll NEVER be #POTUS She has "secrets" that won't remain secret if she decides to run Secrets that would REPULSE the average voter (regardless of party affiliation) if/when known...#MAGA #QAnon #Outnumbered #TheFive #Hannity #BREAKING #Oprah2020 #GoldenGlobes #MeToo pic.twitter.com/ZfBhUujL32

— Boca Vista (@bocavista2016) January 8, 2018

"I happen to believe that most votes can be earned if you can figure out a way to appeal to the specific issues they’re passionate about," Kevin Bingle, an Ohio-based, Republican political digital consultant who managed digital operations for Gov. John Kasich’s presidential campaign said. "There aren’t a lot of single-issue voters other than the fringes of both parties, so it’s very difficult to weave together a message or platform that appeals to one chunk of voters without losing others."

Pennington doubted how much someone so wealthy really could provide a uniting message for America. 

SEE ALSO: Jimmy Kimmel is all about Oprah in 2020

"I think voters want a candidate in 2020 who will finally stand up to a political establishment that has not served their interests...," he said. "There’s some understandable appeal to celebrity candidates — this idea that they’re not already part of a failed corrupt political establishment. But I personally find it hard to believe they will really stand up and do what’s right when the time comes. When you spend so much of your life as a rich and famous person, you start to only see a certain perspective. It becomes very difficult to understand or remember what life is like for regular people."

One thing that everyone agreed on was how little Oprah's celebrity would hurt her and the advantages it would immediately open up. Trump paved the path and, with the right candidate, history could be repeated. 

"Really the [celebrity candidate] model isn't new," McShane said, pointing to Arnold Schwarzenegger's gubernatorial victory. "When you're a celebrity who runs for president, you automatically clear the first hurdle: people give a shit about what you say."

Even a lack of experience is no longer a barrier to entry. Oprah said that herself during the interview with David Rubenstein. What was once a closed door of access, now seems slightly more ajar, if you have the popularity and the money to get your foot in. 

SEE ALSO: President Oprah? Here's what she needs to consider before she runs

"I think it helps in the sense that there is now evidence that there is a pathway regardless of government experience," Bingle said. "President Trump proudly championed that he had no experience in government, which would have normally been a disqualifier for the old-GOP... [Running for president] also requires the ability to raise money or invest in ones own campaign. Trump avoided this due to the tremendous amount of free media attention he got during the campaign. Will the media to that again for another celebrity candidate? We’d have to see."

And the biggest strength that Oprah has, at least to McShane, is how she has connected with audiences and individuals time and time again for many years.

"I think that Hillary Clinton's biggest problem was that she had no populist appeal," McShane said. "For better or worse, there's no question that Donald Trump was the real deal. There's no question that he was relatable. Oprah may have that same appeal for the Democrats as well."

While an Oprah candidacy is still a doubtful proposition, her longtime partner Stedman Graham tossed a lit match on the gasoline of her speech last night when he said if she wanted to run, "She would absolutely do it."

It'll probably be a while before we receive a definitive answer on this. So, in the meantime, be comforted by the fact that there's always a tweet: 

By the way, where is @Oprah? Good question. 4 years ago she strongly supported Obama—now she is silent. Anyway, who cares, I adore Oprah.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2012

WATCH: Oprah's Golden Globes speech was the emotional call to action America needs

[diariesofalostgirl-blog1]

A (long) introduction

Hi, I know this is a long read, I hope it’s worth it. 

I should give you a bit of my backstory, my childhood wasn’t exactly easy. Between my dad moving half way around the world, my mum getting remarried to an abusive alcoholic, having to help raise two disabled half-sisters, multiple deaths of close family members, moving every other year thanks to a military upbringing, my sister’s teenage pregnancy, my teenage self-harm… (the list goes on), life had its challenges. I hadn’t exactly had any positive relationships to aspire to, but I knew I didn’t want to end up like my mother. Without negatively portraying her (she gave us a lot of freedom other parents wouldn’t and had her moments) she was not financially responsible or the best decision maker. Some of her decisions wouldn’t work out for the best, for example; spontaneously moving to London as a gesture to her boyfriend, but living in a car for two weeks because she hadn’t thought to find a house first. Another black mark against me was my social awkwardness, not helped by the constant military moving life. I was quick to fall into social groups at new schools, but I was never someone’s best friend. I was often thought of as someone’s sidekick. And the friendships I did make were only superficial as they only had to last until I moved again.

Fast forward to when I was 23, I had pretty much given up. After having one serious relationship at the age of 17, nothing had come close since. I was failing miserably at my job, living back at home after the shock of my youngest sister’s sudden death, and had three pets – two cats and a puppy. I had no social life as my friends from University lived hours away, and the friends that did live nearby were often on opposite shift patterns to me. My days were spent binge watching TV shows on Netflix, snacking on whatever was in the cupboard, and getting out for half an hour to walk the dog. I would occasionally open the dating apps on my phone and look at the guys with discontent. My self-esteem was non-existent and even if an attractive man had messaged me something that wasn’t bordering on creepy, I didn’t feel confident enough to message back.

In contrast to this, my brother and sister were both happy with their partners, had two children each and both had bought a house. Out of my 4 best friends from University, B had just bought a house with their partner, C was planning their wedding and had bought a house, G was planning her wedding, and S was newly single and loving it, going on multiple dates, and to top it off, every one of them were succeeding in their jobs and had career aspirations. Although I felt alone, and often compared my single existence to that of everyone who surrounded me, I knew I didn’t need a relationship to be happy. I could survive on my own, my whole future was planned around being alone. But I was questioning my job, did I hate my career or just where I worked? Did I want to change career or just ward? If I did change career – how would a lower salary cover my monthly financial commitments? I didn’t know what to do. I felt stuck. I wanted to explore other career options, but didn’t have any experience outside of my current area of employment and wouldn’t get a good reference from my current employer. I couldn’t go back to University as I couldn’t get funding for another undergraduate degree, and paying it myself was impossible.

I was exhausted and it was taking a toll, mentally and physically. I was tired all the time, my eyes constantly felt heavy. I wasn’t eating properly, I was emotional and snapped at those around me. I felt like I was having to drag myself around. I didn’t know what I wanted. I aspired to travel, so I spent a week in Slovenia where I met a fellow Englishman and joined him on a road trip to Prague. I went paragliding, tried to be spontaneous, but I missed home. So maybe travelling wasn’t for me? After getting my cats and puppy, I wanted to work with animals but that meant going back to college and starting again.

I wanted to be everything and anything. I fantasised about being a Manhattan it girl like Serena Van Der Woodsen from Gossip Girls, a wealthy country girl taking the dogs for a walk in her Barbour jacket and Hunter wellies, a stay-at-home-mum in a happy marriage living in a 3 bed detached house in a village cul-de-sac, someone who meets a guy abroad and has a whirlwind holiday romance… the endless lives I wanted to live were those in movies and books. I considered being an actress so that I could live all those lives for a short time, but what skill and confidence did I have to succeed? I wanted to be a writer or an artist, but lacked creativity and imagination – I would sit with a piece of paper and not know what to do with it, and look on the internet for inspiration. I went to an open day at an Arts University in case photography was my thing, but that didn’t work out due to funding.

I regretted the career choices I had made as a teenager. After spending my adolescence caring for my disabled sisters, I followed a path that made logical sense. I didn’t sit down and think about what I wanted to do, no matter how unrealistic it seemed. I went for stability, salary… not dreams or goals, not unpredictability. And now I had started to think about it two years after graduating, it seemed nearly impossible to start from scratch. I hit hurdles at every turn. Every option involved a massive salary decrease, and I wasn’t sure if that was something I was willing to sacrifice. All my monthly financial commitments were budgeted for my current income, and I didn’t know if I could risk trying to pay it all with less money.

Are you starting to get a feel for my frustration? My confusion? I’m sure you’ve felt lost too at some point in your life. It was like a game of chess, I just needed to figure out my next move. But it needed to be carefully planned.

As I write this, I am sat in bed in my dressing gown, listening to my dog bark at the cats, and my mum shout at my little sister. Some TV series that I’ve already watched twenty times is on in the background. I have the webpages up for local courses, job search pages and student finance. None of my friends can meet this week. I’ve been signed off work for two weeks by my doctor for exhaustion and I am waiting for blood test results. I phoned some local stables to arrange volunteer work but they can’t start me until next week, I want to be around horses again as I loved riding as a child. Devastatingly, I am too heavy to ride as all the nearby stables have a weight restriction. There goes another chunk of my self-esteem. I feel like that scene from Bridget Jones where she basically just drinks, cries and sings ballads at the top of her voice. I hope that writing all this down, like a blog entry monitoring my every move, it will give me the motivation to finally make something good happen. I need something exciting for the upcoming pages and posting it online might prompt me to finally make a change. Something worth writing about. Adventure, or romance, or a career change. Something inspiring, life-changing.

xo