#big12 footballpredictions

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Big 12 Preseason Picks

It’s back! It’s back!

It’s a new world for Big 12 football this year. Bill Snyder is gone. Dana Holgorsen is gone. Kliff Kingsbury got fired from Texas Tech and hired by the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray, for most of us, thankfully won’t be around. A certain other quarterback with two titles under his belt has transferred into the conference, from a school you may have heard of in a town called Tuscaloosa.

Say it with me: Tuscaloosa. Tusssskaaaaaloooooossssaaa. My sister Lindsey recently drew my attention to the marvels of this word. Tuscaloosa. Hurray.

1. Oklahoma. 11-1, 8-1. Honestly, it feels like Oklahoma and then spots 2-5 are more or less a free-for-all. OU itself doesn’t feel as unbeatable as the past three years pre-season. Jalen Hurts will be really good, but literally anyone would be a step back after three seasons of Mayfield and Murray. Another slightly worrisome factor would be that the Sooners only return one starter on the offensive line, center Creed Humphreys. The most interesting thing, and scary, for me (as an OU hater) is the specter of Alex Grinch leading the defense. What he did in his time at Wazzu was spectacular. But as OSU’s new D-coordinator Jim Knowles could tell him, the Big 12 is different.

2. Oklahoma State. 10-2, 7-2. After OU, the top half of the conference--to my mind OSU, Texas, Baylor and Iowa State--feels pretty close together. So don’t read this as a hard two. Somebody has to finish second, and I feel like that could be a team with two or even three conference losses this year. The national media are down on the Pokes, too, but that largely feels like a byproduct of OSU’s insane--and at times insanely disappointing--7-6 run last year. Plus Gundy hasn’t picked a quarterback. Both QBs have a load of potential, especially Spencer Sanders. The last time OSU entered the season without a starting QB was in 2013. That was the year split by J.W. Walsh (5 starts) and Clint Chelf (8 starts); the Cowboys won 10 games. Having a more experienced secondary, plus a huge step up in coaching on the offensive line, and an invigorated Gundy will push this team, to my mind, toward higher things. Many OSU fans--specifically those who comment over on Pistols Firing, were dismayed when OL-coach Josh Henson bolted for Texas A&M. Honestly I never understood why he was so popular, as the O-line hasn’t been the same since Joe Wickline departed all the way back in 2013. Henson’s replacement is Bill Snyder’s longtime OL-coach, Charlie Dickey. If there’s one thing K-State’s always been strong on, it’s been a bruising, physical line--and that will help whoever Gundy ultimately chooses to place behind center. Another thing in OSU’s favor is the schedule. OU comes to Stilly, and the Pokes travel to Austin to face the Horns. For most teams that wouldn’t be favorable, but Texas hasn’t beaten OSU in DKR since 2008. That’s five straight losses. Gundy likes to operate from the margin. We’ll see how it goes.

3. Texas. 9-3, 6-3. The media picked Texas to place second by a fairly large margin. Which makes sense being that they whipped up on Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, giving 2019 the most legit 'Texas is back’ hype since... well, to tell you the truth I can’t remember because the damn narrative is there every year. The toughest thing for these Horns is that they only return 3 starters on defense on a team that depended heavily on their D to win games, and I’m not convinced that that Sam Ehlinger, spunky and talented as he is, can survive the whole year without falling to injury. They just run the kid too much for him not to. We’ll know by mid-October whether this Texas team is ready for the big time, being that the face LSU, OSU, and OU all by October 12. Win those three and you’re a national title contender. Take two of three and you’ve gotta feel good about making the conference championship. Lose all three and Herman’s seat might warm up a bit.

4. Iowa State. 8-4, 6-3. Expectations are crazy high in Ames. Crazy, crazy high. And they have a fantastic quarterback returning in Brock Purdy. They should be stout on defense. Grab a win against Iowa in Week 2 and the Hawkeyes will be feeling pretty good. Their toughest slate comes in Weeks 8-10, when Matt Campbell’s bunch faces OSU, OU, and Texas. Fortunately they only have to travel to Norman--but when has an opposing team traveling to Norman ever felt fortunate?

5. Baylor. 8-4, 5-4. As much as it pains me to say it, I’m a little higher on Baylor than most. Along with Texas Tech, ISU, and OU, the Bears are one of the only teams in the conference returning a proven QB, in Charlie Brewer, who threw for just over 3,000 yards lat year. Their schedule lines up very, very favorably: putrid nonconference foes, plus they get Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Texas at home. Arguably, their only truly tough road trips are to Stillwater and Fort Worth. Beat Iowa State in Week 4 and they could be 6-0 when they face the Pokes.

6. Texas Tech. 6-6, 4-5. At last we arrive at the New Coaches section of our preview. Of the new hires, I think the Kansas schools both made out the best--in completely different ways. I’m not entirely sold on Matt Wells, who arrives in Lubbock via Utah State. He had a 44-34 overall record at USU, his alma mater, and was hired on the strength of last year’s 10-2 campaign. During his six seasons in Logan his teams twice one ten games, but had three losing campaigns in a row from 2015-18. I’m really only listing Tech above K-State because they have a fantastic option at quarterback in Alan Bowman, provided his lung holds up (it collapsed during a game last year).

7. Kansas State. 6-6, 4-5. Out of all the new hires in the Big 12 this year, the one that excites me most is Chris Klieman, who seems like the perfect replacement for Bill Snyder, though replacing that man will not be easy. It’s also often not easy to make the adjustment from the FCS to D1. However, Klieman’s resume is about as good as it gets. As head coach at North Dakota State from 2014-2018, Klieman’s Bison went 69-6, winning 4 FCS national titles in 5 years. It’s going to take some doing, but I’m willing to bet Klieman gets K-State going in the next 3-4 years.

8. TCU. 4-8, 2-7. Gary Patterson’s squad was straight up awful on offense last year. Earlier this August Patterson stated that his team was in the middle of a six-man QB race. A quarterback derby of two is bad enough, but six? Not encouraging if you’re a Frogs fan, especially after two straight down years. I could be wrong--if you’ve been reading my football posts any length of time you know I’m wrong a LOT--but I ain’t buying what they’re selling down at the stockyards this year. The Horned Frogs have a tougher schedule than most, too: they travel to Purdue, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma. 9. West Virginia. 3-9, 1-8. I think West Virginia is going to fucking stink. That’s about it. New coach Neal Brown just named OU-transfer Austin Kendall his starter. And... uh, yeah. No Will Grier, no David Sills, and for all his flaws, no Holgersen. WVU’s gonna have it rough this year.

10. Kansas. 3-9, 1-8. Two words: Les Miles. Two more words: Les Miles. I predict they beat at least two conference foes this year. Which of course won’t sit well any of the aforementioned. The schedule is tough: at Texas, at TCU, at OSU, at Iowa State, but their first conference matchup is WVU in Lawrence--a very winnable game. Miles is old-fashioned, probably crazy, and certainly not ethically sound (see his totally lamentable handling of domestic-abuser Pooka Williams), but he will bring a toughness to a football team that has not had one since the days of Mark Mangino, over a decade ago.